Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

[Sloonei]

I'm pretty sure it's been stated a few time that missing votes can and will lead to the mods stepping in.
Votes on here are a much more precious than they are on RYM just because we can't change them here. Once a vote is there, it's final.
I do agree that the lack of a competing bandwagon for Day 2 makes things a little difficult. I think it's more likely than not that at least one scum was coasting by on the Elo wagon.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

do you have any reason to believe there's a punishment for missing a vote?

people here have said it's frowned upon, and it seems to be the primary measuring stick for the "Participation Score" thing.

i'm used to you dropping a vote wherever you feel is right, i think the fact that like half of rymafia just votes the same person you do most of the time you do doesnt really have to do with it. the reason i voted early was because i wouldnt have as much time to play over day 2 as i did on day 1 and i was fairly certain that she was anti-town (fyi i'm gonna go with that so i can say i was right all along). also, i thought maybe with a vote on her elo would respond to my case, which i think she never did so i was wrong there.

i think that the lack of a competing bandwagon makes this muddier, if that makes sense.

on RYM i do tend to drop votes freely, but that's because on RYM we almost always have unlimited vote changes. there's no finality about voting there, which means that even if i am confident about a case i am still able to switch away in the event my feelings change for whatever reason. here i don't have that luxury; i have to be very thorough about making my decision. it makes a huge difference.

i was actually trying to see if a competing bandwagon could be generated in the final stretch there before the lynch was mathematically certain:

i believe we only have 6 votes left in the field and currently the tally leader is up by 4. so i don't feel like i have many things i can do with mine.

is anyone else who hasn't voted still around to talk about this?

because when so many people pile on to a single target, it makes the tally a bit harder to read anything from. you seem to feel the same way, right? hence your exploration of people who voted for someone else?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

hopefully this thing works

[JaggedJimmyJay]

nope. shrinking it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

one takeaway for me here is that i need to have some cajones and decide on some suspicions. 11T and 3M is obviously not correct, and i'd rather be wrong in the other direction more like MP.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It's probably good that I had to run off to dinner. Because I saw JJJ's initial post and got really super-frustrated. But now I've calmed down quite a bit and can explain.

1) As to why I ducked out so quickly, I had to leave to help finish getting dinner ready. We ate, conversed, and even threw in a game of Euchre after dinner. So I left because I decided family time was more important than a metagame in a mafia game. Shocking, I know, that I'd want to have a life outside of this. Clearly there is something wrong with me. :P

2) I was trying to finish my catching up as JJJ's game/exercise was starting. I was trying to get a post in, and kept getting linkitis over and over again. I was trying to make funny/silly comments about it, and thus wasn't fully paying attention to the rules of the exercise. I only looked back after the fact and realized that I couldn't post my feelings on someone as 'neutral'. Which is a good thing I worded it the way I did, because otherwise I would have replied with 'neutral'.

Hope that satisfies your curiosity!

my immediate response to this is positive. i don't think these reasons are hard to believe, even if they might be rather obvious.

[fingersplints]

You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

How many baddies do you think there are MP?

[G-Man]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

in truth i wasn't thinking much about how compatible any two mafia might be when i named mine. i just spat out base reads without thinking. but i am not sure i would call you and BR incompatible. i could see some potential for bussing since you've been focused against her on a single point and she's never been in danger of a lynch.

[Epignosis]

[Tangrowth]

You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

How many baddies do you think there are MP?

Um... a lot? :P

[Tangrowth]

EVERYONE IS MAFIA, TOWN LOSE

[birdwithteeth11]

EVERYONE IS MAFIA, TOWN LOSE

So, ummmmmm.....who do we kill next then?

[birdwithteeth11]

Should have been OT. Sorry.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Wow, good job town. That was probably the best outcome we could have had.

Also mfw Adam Smith made Elo kill her husband on night 1 lol

Also JJJ, I wish I could have took part in your game, but I wasn't online at the time. Is it too late to post my reads? I wanna make some points first though.

Dragon - seems to be parroting others a bit. Your vote today is a complete waste as Vomps replaced ATE and cannot be lynched today. Although tbh her/his vote explanation read as sincere to me. Hello fence----lol

Sorry, but you're wrong. Vombat did not replace Aether, he replaced Dom. Aether is still playing the game. Believe it or not.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also lol at Elo arguing about wanting to leave the serial killer alive earlier in the phase. Really...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also JJJ, I wish I could have took part in your game, but I wasn't online at the time. Is it too late to post my reads? I wanna make some points first though.

by all means, let's see them. no neutrals allowed.

i can't include your reads in the table though. the rapid-fire setup is the whole point.

[Bubbles]

Hahhaa I love this! YEAHHHHH go civs! Boo Eloh! I was so afraid Eloh was innocent, it would've been a repeat of the Spacedaisy lynch from the last game. -does a little dance-

On a side note, RIP John Nash! I just heard that he had died in a car accident, along with his wife. It's very sad. His ideas on game theory were brilliant.

I haven't read all through 40+ pages yet (sigh) but I noticed a few people think I'm a baddie. No, I'm still a good guy. I'm not sure what to say to convince you all; the truth will come out sooner or later. Btw I didn't merely jump on Elo because of what JJJ said or group consensus, Elo seemed suspect because she flip flopped on Golden, and a lot of her defensive posts after that seemed ad hoc. And I didn't retreat on Bass, still think he's guilty (more or less, i'd have to catch up on his more recent posts), but I was so wrong about baddies in the last game, I didn't want to trust only my own opinion this time. As for why I voted earlier, I explained already: exams, RL priorities. I didn't want to miss the vote AGAIN and get kicked out of the game or something worse. Yes, it's a little unfair to vote without getting all the facts together and giving people a chance to defend themselves or explain their position better, but it's better than being thrown out of the game ><

Anyway, at this point I'm fairly certain JJJ is a civilian. And Bass is still on my radar. Also I read back some pages (it's like searching for a needle in a haystack) that Turnip Head was going to vote for me but actually didn't. Wtf? What was that about. Why even say that unless it was meant to trigger some debate about me. Not something a civilian would do IMO. Turnip head you are on my radar now

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Anyway, what I wanted to say: there have been a few people saying that my vote of aether was easy (Turnip) or a cop out (bwt), because I could have easily been a mafioso trying to avoid responsibility for a likely town lynch. Now, consider one thing: if one of the mafia is among the ones who voted for Elo, what would they try to say? I believe they would be saying exactly that: that the ones who did not vote for Elo were looking for a cop out. It's simple really. They'd want to avoid the possible heat for lynching a townie, and then accuse the ones who didn't of trying to avoid heat.

Now look at the opposite side: I called a lot of attention to myself for my vote. Two people voted for me, and a third one said he was very inclined to do so. I expect my name to appear lower in the upcoming rainbow lists. Do you call that easy? I took a high risk at doing that. Now, do you know which ones I think were the easy votes? The guys who voted Elo at the end of the phase. With one hour left. At that point, it was nearly impossible for the lynch to change. Their votes would have absolutely zero effect on the game. Zero. And they could start trying to blame the non-Elo voters early. If that isn't an easy vote, I don't know what it is.

Of course, I assume at least half of you are now thinking: WIFOM! Yes, it's a huge WIFOM. If I were mafia, the most logical strategy for me would be to come here and trying to bury your suspicions on me under a mountain of WIFOM. I know that. But I'm not posting this because I want to defend myself. I'm posting this because, under the assumption that mafia was among the final Elo voters (G-Man, Sloonei, JJJ and Bass), this becomes specially interesting:

i believe we only have 6 votes left in the field and currently the tally leader is up by 4. so i don't feel like i have many things i can do with mine.

is anyone else who hasn't voted still around to talk about this?

I decided I should vote for Elohcin, and now it seems my vote would put her over the edge completely, barring some serious gun/butter action.
Her and Bass remain my top two suspects, and the bass wagon does not seem to have much momentum at the moment, so it makes the most sense for me to vote Elohcin.

Do you only vote for people who are likely to win bandwagons? I said that because you waited the entire phase to cast a vote, and only did so when the chance of your voting amounting to anything was near zero. You spent the phase talking about deciding between Bass and Elo, but as the inevitable Elo bandwagon formed, no signs were given to a Bass wagon happening. In fact he got zero votes. But you waited until the phase was pretty much over to join the Elo wagon. Your vote ended up being completely useless. So why use it on Elo?

Don't you think there might be a better use for your vote? For example, pushing a player who you suspect for some reason? Like Bass, for example, or another one? Myself, I didn't have much hope that aether would be lynched, with Elo having 4 votes at that point (and her lynch train forming since night 1). I decided to do something useful with it and go after a player most were ignoring, to force people to analyse her and force her to show up (the later unfortunately didn't happen).

i threw my vote on Elo. every other option is mathematically impossible. and she's a red read. so cool beans.

Same point here. Why throwing a vote that has no chance of changing anything?

You did point right after that that you were aware of the possibility of mafia knowing the lynch was inevitable though, which is interesting. If you are mafia, you are one of the most self-aware players I've ever seen.

SON OF A.....

I saw I had about 30 seconds left (I thought), went to click on the bubble next to Bass' name, and then went to vote....and it wouldn't accept my vote because it was past the deadline. Oh well.

But yeah, if I could have voted, I would have voted for Bass probably. DDL would be a close second for his pressing Elo on her Golden vote, and DDL's voicing suspicion of her, but then going with an aether vote which seemed like an easy cop-out to me.

Might as well finish catching up for now.

Linki: If Elo flips civ, I think DDL is definitely getting a closer look from me. The only person I remember having anything resembling a substantial case on her is MP. I feel like there was one more player but I can't remember right now who it is.

That, and I think it's more likely Elo comes up civ because of all the weak reasons IMO I saw for voting for her. Seemed like an easy target unfortunately.

Linki: Holy shit did NOT expect that at ALL!

Calls me a cop out, but doesn't vote. Could be real life, but the guy was pretty active at the end of the phase. So am I too believe that he stayed active for the entire final hour, and for some reason decided to wait until the last few minutes to vote, but then something happened and he had to look away from the computer at the exact time the phase ended?

Wouldn't it be better to just, you know, vote half an hour earlier? It's not like you would have changed anything, but at least you would have avoided the possible host punishment?

If anything, that is the cop out. Sure, he may be punished by the mod, but this isn't the first instance I've seen of a player eating a mod punishment on purpose just to be able to stay away from the fray.

Anyway, the point I'm making is, don't look just to the people who voted non-Elo. Look at the ones who voted Elo, specially the ones who did it near the end of the phase. Those are as likely of being "easy votes".

If anything, the ones who earned some towncred to me were the ones who voted Elo in the first 24 hours: TinyBubbles, MP and sanmateo. Because WIFOMs nowithstanding, voting so early on a possible town lynch would be an insane risk to mafia. And the heat they got because of that shows.

The rest? As suspicious as anyone.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also JJJ, I wish I could have took part in your game, but I wasn't online at the time. Is it too late to post my reads? I wanna make some points first though.

by all means, let's see them. no neutrals allowed.

i can't include your reads in the table though. the rapid-fire setup is the whole point.

Alright. I'll try to follow the format some way. Imma vote based on alpha order:

acrossaether: mafia
Bass_The_Clever: town
birdwithteet: mafia
Black Rock: town
fingersplints: town
G-man: town
JJJ: town
MP: town
Roxy: mafia
sanmateo: town
Sloonei: mafia
TunyBubbles: town
Turnip: town
Vombat: town

[G-Man]

birdwithteet: mafia

[Golden]

Yeah, I was just coming in to make a 'wrong gender' comment. Birdwithteet. Lol!

[G-Man]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Same point here. Why throwing a vote that has no chance of changing anything?

i'll start by referring you to an earlier post. sanmateo asked me a similar question, and this was my response:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 11#p145211

the reason i chose Elohcin and not somebody else was that i didn't think it made any difference anyway. my vote was mechanically useless because the lynch was sealed. i don't think it had any "pressure" value even. like i said earlier -- the only reason i voted at all was to avoid being punished by the hosts for missing a vote.

[Sloonei]

Also JJJ, I wish I could have took part in your game, but I wasn't online at the time. Is it too late to post my reads? I wanna make some points first though.

by all means, let's see them. no neutrals allowed.

i can't include your reads in the table though. the rapid-fire setup is the whole point.

Alright. I'll try to follow the format some way. Imma vote based on alpha order:

acrossaether: mafia
Bass_The_Clever: town
birdwithteet: mafia
Black Rock: town
fingersplints: town
G-man: town
JJJ: town
MP: town
Roxy: mafia
sanmateo: town
Sloonei: mafia
TunyBubbles: town
Turnip: town
Vombat: town

why am I mafia?

[Bubbles]

Yeah, I was just coming in to make a 'wrong gender' comment. Birdwithteet. Lol!

Hi Golden what's it like being dead?

[thellama73]

why am I mafia?

I don't know why, but this strikes me as an incredibly funny quote. I lol'ed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

so in the event that Vompatti is mafia, what are we supposed to do about that? let's do what we must to resolve that.

[Sloonei]

Dragon's reads in that list suggest a scum team of me, birdwithteeth, Roxy, and acrosstheaether. Hos and why did you arrive at these conclusions, Dragon? I'm most interested in my own presence on this list, obviously. But the other names are also intriguing. I've listed them as two slight town reads and one slight scum read. Are these reads an influence at all in your reads?

[Tangrowth]

Also lol at Elo arguing about wanting to leave the serial killer alive earlier in the phase. Really...

LOL. I forgot about this!

You know, that's hilarious, because Elo did a similar thing in Death Note where she tried to argue that the lines between civilian and mafia were blurred due to the very unconventional nature of much of my setup. She was mafia.

Need to pay attention to these kinds of statements more often. :P

I haven't read all through 40+ pages yet (sigh) but I noticed a few people think I'm a baddie. No, I'm still a good guy. I'm not sure what to say to convince you all; the truth will come out sooner or later. Btw I didn't merely jump on Elo because of what JJJ said or group consensus, Elo seemed suspect because she flip flopped on Golden, and a lot of her defensive posts after that seemed ad hoc. And I didn't retreat on Bass, still think he's guilty (more or less, i'd have to catch up on his more recent posts), but I was so wrong about baddies in the last game, I didn't want to trust only my own opinion this time. As for why I voted earlier, I explained already: exams, RL priorities. I didn't want to miss the vote AGAIN and get kicked out of the game or something worse. Yes, it's a little unfair to vote without getting all the facts together and giving people a chance to defend themselves or explain their position better, but it's better than being thrown out of the game ><

Anyway, at this point I'm fairly certain JJJ is a civilian. And Bass is still on my radar. Also I read back some pages (it's like searching for a needle in a haystack) that Turnip Head was going to vote for me but actually didn't. Wtf? What was that about. Why even say that unless it was meant to trigger some debate about me. Not something a civilian would do IMO. Turnip head you are on my radar now

Hey TinyBubbles (can we call you TB for short?)!

Curious what you think about you look at Bass again.

Is Turnip Head your top suspect then or is that Bass?

so in the event that Vompatti is mafia, what are we supposed to do about that? let's do what we must to resolve that.

Good question.

I say just try to engage him like anyone else, I suppose. That's all we can do, I think.

Dragon's reads in that list suggest a scum team of me, birdwithteeth, Roxy, and acrosstheaether. Hos and why did you arrive at these conclusions, Dragon? I'm most interested in my own presence on this list, obviously. But the other names are also intriguing. I've listed them as two slight town reads and one slight scum read. Are these reads an influence at all in your reads?

I'm intrigued for Dragon to elaborate on his mafia reads as well since it's an interesting fictional team, particularly his read on you being mafia.

[Tangrowth]

And I really hope aether has formally asked to be replaced or will come back!

[sanmateo]

so in the event that Vompatti is mafia, what are we supposed to do about that? let's do what we must to resolve that.

you want... to... lynch a .. lurker? that is off character

[JaggedJimmyJay]

so in the event that Vompatti is mafia, what are we supposed to do about that? let's do what we must to resolve that.

you want... to... lynch a .. lurker? that is off character

i didn't say lynch him.

[sanmateo]

i think it's odd that ddl called the entire mafia team now. granted i wouldve done that 3 times by now if we were on rym but cant rely on previous games for most players here and neither can he. also just going in and doing 3 massive paragraphs of awful wifom isnt ok just because you admit its wifom

[thellama73]

You know, that's hilarious, because Elo did a similar thing in Death Note where she tried to argue that the lines between civilian and mafia were blurred due to the very unconventional nature of much of my setup. She was mafia.

To be fair, I think outing herself to me in BTSC had more to do with her being lynched that game.

[Tangrowth]

You know, that's hilarious, because Elo did a similar thing in Death Note where she tried to argue that the lines between civilian and mafia were blurred due to the very unconventional nature of much of my setup. She was mafia.

To be fair, I think outing herself to me in BTSC had more to do with her being lynched that game.

That was so great.

[thellama73]

You know, that's hilarious, because Elo did a similar thing in Death Note where she tried to argue that the lines between civilian and mafia were blurred due to the very unconventional nature of much of my setup. She was mafia.

To be fair, I think outing herself to me in BTSC had more to do with her being lynched that game.

That was so great.

One of my very favorite Mafia moments.

[Sloonei]

i think it's odd that ddl called the entire mafia team now. granted i wouldve done that 3 times by now if we were on rym but cant rely on previous games for most players here and neither can he. also just going in and doing 3 massive paragraphs of awful wifom isnt ok just because you admit its wifom

what do you mean by "called the mafia team"? If you're referring to his post I just pointed to, he didn't really call the whole team. Jay called for quick gut reads on all the players, and dragon came out with those 4 people.

[Golden]

Yeah, I was just coming in to make a 'wrong gender' comment. Birdwithteet. Lol!

Hi Golden what's it like being dead?

Very red.

[Sloonei]

Dragon D. Luffy

I wanted to wait for Dragon to respond to my most recent questioning before doing an ISO of him, but I got anxious so here's this.

I'm curious too. This Day 0 has been fun, but it's hard to make reads on anyone when almost none of the posts are about the game. It's easier when everyone is accusing each other. I suppose that's what Day 1s are for.

Btw, I think it's very interesting how Jay started talking about making cases right after the second role was handed out. Which is interesting since the game was pretty much a blank state at that point. Though to be fair, he did say he had nothing at that point.

That could indicate an alignment change. If a player who has done nothing gets a new role and suddenly starts being proactive, it might mean a townie who became mafia, or vice-versa. Just a theory.

Dragon was one of a few vocal players around at the start of the game and I did not know what to make of his presence there, and frankly still don't. He is a new player, and if there's one thing I learned from this Day 1 it's that there's a lot of different ways for players to pursue it. But this post is what stands out for me as the game's real starting point. It was the fist real observation about something substantial happening in the thread, imo. I liked the initiative at the time, but looking back under a microscope, it could also be a possibility that a scum player would want to get in there to start things off at the first thing they get to latch onto. Either way, Dragon saw something he could latch on to to start the thread and he did so.

This post seemed like a pretty reasonable follow up and continuation of the attitude in the first post. His points felt a bit off but it was Day 1 and that's not unexpected. At the very least I appreciated a player, especially one new to the community, who was willing to start the game aggressively. But the content of the posts doesn't really generate a whole lot of information for me. I'm not really getting a read on his alignment, just that he's pursuing an aggressive start to the game.
His point about me felt like it was coming from a misconstruence of what my post, but I did not make anything of that. Here's another post on that.

His Day 1 content continued to be like that. He was being aggressive and participating in all the conversation, which was good, and he ended up being the one at the forefront of most of the early discussion and spent a lot of time having to defend himself. He took a fair amount of early heat for his claim that he had no scum reads after the early flurry of activity, but this was not a notion too unlike how I felt, and a lot of the attention on him felt undeserved. But Day 1.

He was called a town read fairly early on by JJJ and MP07, but received a bit of attention from sanmateo, epignosis and Elohcin, among others, from what I remember. It is interesting that two of those three names were strong suspects in the thread in the early going, and at least one of them was anti-town for sure.

I have a very hard time reading Dragon from these posts alone for all the Day 1 reasons I've stated already. I have to give the benefit of doubt on pretty much every post he makes because he seems to have a unique style regardless of alignment here, and I don't know what to make of that yet.

As the game wears on posts like this one suggest he's playing the game and at least feigning to hunt for scum:

Can you please show me where I said I was suspected MP? I said I wanted to keep an eye on him because I felt like he was acting different this game. The I gave a short list of what I thought.

Saying you want to keep an eye on someone is pretty much the same thing as suspecting them. You're not directly accusing them of being mafia, but you think there's something worth watching out for.

But you never pursued it, or anything for that matter. You just stayed neutral until you were in danger of getting lynched and you had to put a self defense vote.

Is that how you always play? I'm saying this because I remember someone mentioning you always play like this.

He's responding pretty directly to Bass here and I like the effort and the angles he takes in what appears to be genuine scumhunting.

Honestly I don't see much point in analysing why mafia killed someone. That's WIFOM trap.

And if we apply Occam's Razor, the fact is that Metalmarsh was a player who wasn't really attracting suspicions from anyone, and was being fairly active, voicing suspicions on others and showing interest in the game. That's pretty much the kind of player mafia likes to get rid of.

He makes this post, which I disagree with. It's always worth doing some analysis of the scum kill. Disagreeing with somebody does not have to mean they're scum, but when that person is actively discouraging some sort of game-relevant discussion, well...

I would propose that if Adam Smith is still alive (hopefully he's not Metalmarsh), then he should try to build a case against Malthus, who he probably targetted last night. This game doesn't allow role reveals, but I suppose he can come up with some reason to call him bad and then tunnel on him, no?

There's also the possibility of him keeping targetting Malthus over and over to exploit his night kill. But I think that's a bad idea, because he gets free again as soon as Adam Smith dies. We should get rid of the bastard as soon as we can.

And then he makes this post, making strategical suggestions for certain roles in the game. Something about this post has seemed odd since the time he made it, but I never really stopped to think about it.
No one had really discussed roles strategically like this, and i'm not sure if that's just a flavor of the rules on and culture in this community or what, but not many people seemed to buy into what Dragon was saying here, myself included, and the issue fairly quickly went away. But what was Dragon trying to provoke with this post? His stance is a little confusing in this post, and even more so when we consider what his motives might have been. He does back himself up in a couple posts, to his credit.

One thing I notice about Dragon's post history is that it feels like a very significant portion of his content came in and around that one early flourish. That's not to say there's nothing else here, but that it's dropped off a bit since that aggressive start he showed earlier. I find that somewhat suspicious, as it feeds into my doubts that he could have been scum simply trying to get off to a fast start in this game, and now he's dropped back a bit.

He makes a few observations about voting decisions on Day 2

Hmm... Turnip said he was voting for Bubbles but he didn't.

Bubbles vote was fishy af, felt like she isn't even trying.

"hey I'm a noob and I dont know how to play so imma drop a vote on someone everyone is suspecting and check out for the phase cya".

A lot of her posts feel like honest inexperience though.

They don't really offer a lot, and the second one, about Bubbles, smells pretty strongly of waffles.

Bubbles vote was fishy af, felt like she isn't even trying.

"hey I'm a noob and I dont know how to play so imma drop a vote on someone everyone is suspecting and check out for the phase cya".

A lot of her posts feel like honest inexperience though.

i find myself wondering about your effort level too, DDL. you started the game with a purpose, and even though it brought you some heat you seemed content to post at a torrent pace and stay involved. but over the last couple real-time days, your level of activity has waned directly relative to a decrease in pressure on you.

why do you suppose that is?

I guess I'm just tired? Between having to explain myself to Epi about 10 times (and to other people about 50), spending a few consecutive days thinking about barely anything other than this game, and then going through a lot of effort just to lynch a townie, I think I just burned my fuel. That day 1 was the most active phase in any game I've ever played.

It doesn't help that 90% of the posts in this phase are being made by 2 people and most other players are making themselves hard to read by not posting.

I'm trying to be more moderate this time around. And focusing on people I suspect instead of trying to analyse every sinlge player.

Oh hey look, Jay already called him out for the exact same thing I just mentioned. There's an example of why he's a town read, I guess. BUT back to Dragon, his response to this feels a bit soft, like he acknowledges and gives in to what Jay is saying without really defending himself. I remember myself doing this exact same thing in the game on RYM a couple weeks ago when I was scum. When people pointed out oddities in my behavior, I agreed to the cases and just tried to shrug them off. I'm getting a lot of those vibes from this post, I don't like it.

Before you ask who I'm suspecting, Elo is main my one. Though she made herself somewhat better by at least trying to explain herself. But I'd vote her now if I had to choose.

Bass has gotten a little better in my eyes. His defenses seem legit. I guess I'm back to neutral on him.

Acrosstheater is one that is going back to being scummy. She is basically Tinybubbles without the noob card. Didn't vote, doesn't post, doesn't produce anything, doesn't care. Her most useful post in the game was the one where she said he is useless on day 1.

Names Elohcin as his main suspect, a popular thing to do yesterday, offers a weak neutral read on Bass, and then throws in aether as a third name because she's quiet and an easy target at this point. He would end up voting for aether, the only one to do so, instead of Elohcin and a part of me wants to look at that as Dragon perhaps distancing himself from what he thought would be a townie lynch while hopping on to another quieter bandwagon.
His vote is here, and he does offer support in spirit of the Elohcin wagon, but this vote still stands out as odd. He asserts it with much more strength than his post history up until then would suggest, where I only see the one post mentioning her until this one, and yet here he calls her "the most suspicious player since the game started".

He offers a more detailed read of Turnip Head here, which I like. The read is not particularly thorough, but I can't claim to have anything better to say about Turnip myself, so I'll say nothing about that. Other than what I just said.

I'll break down a few of his more recent posts in another uh post later. Dragon is currently a slight mafia read. I literally started working on this post two hours ago but kept getting distracted and just need to get it out there now.

[Sloonei]

Anyway, what I wanted to say: there have been a few people saying that my vote of aether was easy (Turnip) or a cop out (bwt), because I could have easily been a mafioso trying to avoid responsibility for a likely town lynch. Now, consider one thing: if one of the mafia is among the ones who voted for Elo, what would they try to say? I believe they would be saying exactly that: that the ones who did not vote for Elo were looking for a cop out. It's simple really. They'd want to avoid the possible heat for lynching a townie, and then accuse the ones who didn't of trying to avoid heat.

I don't think I agree with this point, and something feels like an attempt at misdirection. "These people are suspecting me because of my vote, they must be scum."

Now look at the opposite side: I called a lot of attention to myself for my vote. Two people voted for me, and a third one said he was very inclined to do so. I expect my name to appear lower in the upcoming rainbow lists. Do you call that easy? I took a high risk at doing that. Now, do you know which ones I think were the easy votes? The guys who voted Elo at the end of the phase. With one hour left. At that point, it was nearly impossible for the lynch to change. Their votes would have absolutely zero effect on the game. Zero. And they could start trying to blame the non-Elo voters early. If that isn't an easy vote, I don't know what it is.

And this is where you really lose me. "Look at me, I'm being risky. No scum would ever be risky, right?" Feels like a totally unnecessary and inefficient line of self-defense. This paragraph reeks of scumminess, unfortunately.

Of course, I assume at least half of you are now thinking: WIFOM! Yes, it's a huge WIFOM. If I were mafia, the most logical strategy for me would be to come here and trying to bury your suspicions on me under a mountain of WIFOM. I know that. But I'm not posting this because I want to defend myself. I'm posting this because, under the assumption that mafia was among the final Elo voters (G-Man, Sloonei, JJJ and Bass), this becomes specially interesting:

This is more of the same. He's openly WIFOMing by acknowledging the WIFOM. Perhaps a bit too conscious of the attention this post will draw him.

i believe we only have 6 votes left in the field and currently the tally leader is up by 4. so i don't feel like i have many things i can do with mine.

is anyone else who hasn't voted still around to talk about this?

I decided I should vote for Elohcin, and now it seems my vote would put her over the edge completely, barring some serious gun/butter action.
Her and Bass remain my top two suspects, and the bass wagon does not seem to have much momentum at the moment, so it makes the most sense for me to vote Elohcin.

Do you only vote for people who are likely to win bandwagons? I said that because you waited the entire phase to cast a vote, and only did so when the chance of your voting amounting to anything was near zero. You spent the phase talking about deciding between Bass and Elo, but as the inevitable Elo bandwagon formed, no signs were given to a Bass wagon happening. In fact he got zero votes. But you waited until the phase was pretty much over to join the Elo wagon. Your vote ended up being completely useless. So why use it on Elo?

Don't you think there might be a better use for your vote? For example, pushing a player who you suspect for some reason? Like Bass, for example, or another one? Myself, I didn't have much hope that aether would be lynched, with Elo having 4 votes at that point (and her lynch train forming since night 1). I decided to do something useful with it and go after a player most were ignoring, to force people to analyse her and force her to show up (the later unfortunately didn't happen).

I can dig the questioning, but I'm not sure I buy into them as a sincere effort to scum hunt. My vote was never in jeopardy of going to anyone other than Bass or Elohcin according to everything I stated publicly. Did I ever give you any indication that I would want to vote for another player? I think I was pretty vocal about both Elohcin and Bass, and I also think I'v demonstrated that I'm going to hold on to my votes as carefully as I'm able to in this game. I waited as long as I did because I don't want to cast a premature vote early in the Day and end up regretting it later. By the time I finally voted, the tally was pretty much wrapped up, yes, but it was a result that I had supported all day long.

i threw my vote on Elo. every other option is mathematically impossible. and she's a red read. so cool beans.

Same point here. Why throwing a vote that has no chance of changing anything?

You did point right after that that you were aware of the possibility of mafia knowing the lynch was inevitable though, which is interesting. If you are mafia, you are one of the most self-aware players I've ever seen.

SON OF A.....

I saw I had about 30 seconds left (I thought), went to click on the bubble next to Bass' name, and then went to vote....and it wouldn't accept my vote because it was past the deadline. Oh well.

But yeah, if I could have voted, I would have voted for Bass probably. DDL would be a close second for his pressing Elo on her Golden vote, and DDL's voicing suspicion of her, but then going with an aether vote which seemed like an easy cop-out to me.

Might as well finish catching up for now.

Linki: If Elo flips civ, I think DDL is definitely getting a closer look from me. The only person I remember having anything resembling a substantial case on her is MP. I feel like there was one more player but I can't remember right now who it is.

That, and I think it's more likely Elo comes up civ because of all the weak reasons IMO I saw for voting for her. Seemed like an easy target unfortunately.

Linki: Holy shit did NOT expect that at ALL!

Calls me a cop out, but doesn't vote. Could be real life, but the guy was pretty active at the end of the phase. So am I too believe that he stayed active for the entire final hour, and for some reason decided to wait until the last few minutes to vote, but then something happened and he had to look away from the computer at the exact time the phase ended?

Wouldn't it be better to just, you know, vote half an hour earlier? It's not like you would have changed anything, but at least you would have avoided the possible host punishment?

If anything, that is the cop out. Sure, he may be punished by the mod, but this isn't the first instance I've seen of a player eating a mod punishment on purpose just to be able to stay away from the fray.

Anyway, the point I'm making is, don't look just to the people who voted non-Elo. Look at the ones who voted Elo, specially the ones who did it near the end of the phase. Those are as likely of being "easy votes".

If anything, the ones who earned some towncred to me were the ones who voted Elo in the first 24 hours: TinyBubbles, MP and sanmateo. Because WIFOMs nowithstanding, voting so early on a possible town lynch would be an insane risk to mafia. And the heat they got because of that shows.

The rest? As suspicious as anyone.

I actually can get behind his questioning of birdwithteeth here, but it's beginning to feel a bit like he's looking too hard at these votes (or no-votes) and trying to pull something out to spin into a case. I don't feel very good about this post overall.

[Sloonei]

Also JJJ, I wish I could have took part in your game, but I wasn't online at the time. Is it too late to post my reads? I wanna make some points first though.

by all means, let's see them. no neutrals allowed.

i can't include your reads in the table though. the rapid-fire setup is the whole point.

Alright. I'll try to follow the format some way. Imma vote based on alpha order:

acrossaether: mafia
Bass_The_Clever: town
birdwithteet: mafia
Black Rock: town
fingersplints: town
G-man: town
JJJ: town
MP: town
Roxy: mafia
sanmateo: town
Sloonei: mafia
TunyBubbles: town
Turnip: town
Vombat: town

And then there's this post again, which I've already asked him to explain. I suppose I'm just making this post to re-emphasize that this is the thing I most want Dragon to provide an answer for. Why are these four your scum reads at this point in the game?

[Sloonei]

I apologize for the length of those posts and I don't expect everyone to read all (or any) of what I just wrote. The important thing that everyone should see is thag Dragon came out of this exercise as a slight scum read instead of the slight town read he had been before.
This whole section of the page is just me going over Dragon's posts. Skip over all those posts if all you care about is my conclusion.

[acrosstheaether]

I don't want to be replaced anymore. Now that the SK is out of the way, no need to speculate about alignments of NKs

[acrosstheaether]

I disagree about the notion that Elo's flip should be treated as a townie lynch though. Many people (including myself) would have been town, and read her behaviour as generally anti-town, rather than a mafia-tell in particular.

[acrosstheaether]

I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

[fingersplints]

I disagree about the notion that Elo's flip should be treated as a townie lynch though. Many people (including myself) would have been town, and read her behaviour as generally anti-town, rather than a mafia-tell in particular.

How was her behavior "anti-town"? She would have been interested in finding mafia as well, so if anything I think that this result means her suspicions were genuine.

[Vompatti]

mafia
mafia
mafia

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I disagree about the notion that Elo's flip should be treated as a townie lynch though. Many people (including myself) would have been town, and read her behaviour as generally anti-town, rather than a mafia-tell in particular.

I have a distinct memory of an RYMer making the exact same point about a rogue lynch that i made there in a recent game.

It was you.

[Vompatti]

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.