Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#2801

To add to the '13 Champions story, consequently, because my VGV team fell apart super early, and one of the members even became recruited, I decided to give Creeper a secret ability for kill activation. That was the only game where I actually made a host edit while the game was going, but realizing the unfair setup that I had created, thought it was for the best.

Considering I never want to have to do that again, I'm incredibly hesitant to leave the mafia without a kill, and I think the sentiment is generally shared except in unconventional cases.

#2802

stay tuned, MP. i am analyzing your ass right now and it's not looking good.

#2803

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:stay tuned, MP. i am analyzing your ass right now and it's not looking good.

Seriously, analyze me all you want, I have nothing to hide.

#2804

MP, what do you think of my semi-proposal regarding Vompatti? i'll answer your questions soon, once i get your analysis posted.

#2805

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MP, what do you think of my semi-proposal regarding Vompatti? i'll answer your questions soon, once i get your analysis posted.

Are you proposing we lynch him tomorrow or on D6?

I absolutely 100% think that we should lynch G-Man tomorrow and I don't see any reason to NOT do so.

Even on D6, I think it makes way more sense to lynch aether or Bass than to lynch Vompatti, but on that Day I'm more receptive to hearing you out.

#2806

I will admit, Jay, my gut instinct to you mentioning Vompatti was that you could be the 4th teammate and that you're hoping to survive past LyLo by offering up four players in lynches ahead of you (G-Man, Bass, aether, and Vompatti), especially considering I already suspected you as third most likely as the 4th teammate due to your "G-Man is now my top civilian read" stuff.

#2807

That said, I realize that sounds a bit ridiculous, naturally. :P

I'll check back in, particularly to see your analysis that apparently makes me look more like a puke colored sock than a rainbow colored one, but I need to get some homework done.

#2808

Meaningful interaction between/about Roxy and MovingPictures07

i was going to spoiler this whole post so it isn't so massive, but it doesn't appear to allow spoilers within spoilers.

Roxy wrote:I knew he was civ and am so surprised MP did not immediately feel the same.
I also wish others. who know him better would have spoke out more.

my first impression of this is that it looks more like an attempt to make a townie look bad than a veiled soft bus. she was essentially stating "it's all your fault MP" in a nicer way.

Roxy wrote:MP - Yeah you are acting different but tbh I think every person (old and new) is playing a bit differently. It is what happens when different mafia styles collide. In a way we all are a bit "off" this game bc things are happening that the new players did not expect and things are happening that the old players did not expect. I know it has affected bc I felt picked on bc of the amount of posts I had and I am sure you were feeling it Day 1. I do however have good vibes from you.

this one can be taken either way i think. one might suggest she is defending MP on the basis of this "different style" others have said MP is playing with in this game because it would encourage the support of the thread's loudest player. on the other hand, the easier mafia strategy when a townie is being wrongly accused by many others is to join the accusers. i will read this one as null.

Roxy wrote:MP is always a high poster irregardless of alignment. We have had actual posting contests in games before I believe he has won at least one or two of them. So yep normal.

now the meta read has morphed from "acting different" to "yep normal". it'd seem the questions raised about MP's treatment of the new players were drowned out eventually by his sheer post count. a trend i'm noting now is that every reference to MP by Roxy is pretty soft -- either a soft defense or a soft accusation. she might not have wanted to poke the player most likely to respond with 10 posts for every accusation.

Roxy wrote:Sorry to have missed the vote I had work and family issues to resolve.

splints made her case from the begining - some said she had tunnel vision otherssaid she was not actively pursuing baddies now suddenly she is bussing someone????

Does anyone read my posts about her?? I am sooooo surprised at MP, he knows her as well as me and should know that this is her civ game. I am not liking what he is saying.
Splints has given us our first mafia in a lynch and you all think she is bad after gunning for BR since Day 1!
on anyone who srsly ursues her for lynch.

this one works nicely for MP. Roxy is setting up an MP lynch following a splints lynch, which seemed like a good possibility when this post happened.

Roxy wrote:I want to post but MP posts seem quite hostile and I am not sure I deserve the attitude.

when the Roxy/MP battle became more heated on Day 4, it started to look a lot more like they're not team mates. i don't think any of that was fabricated, because that would be in terribly poor taste (and i think both Roxy and MP seem like the types wouldn't play that way). if anyone disagrees with that they should say so.

Spoiler: show

Day 1 Rainbows for reference.

Spoiler: show

Night 1 Rainbows. the quote in the middle was right between them. i include it because i think it can be called interesting -- MP is deliberately prodding Roxy in numerous ways here. if they're team mates then i think this would be a bit less likely, since it was clearly Roxy's preference to stay a little quieter and this kind of behavior by MP would definitely not help that.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Wow, that's illuminating, Jay. Glad I've been still working on my Rainbow List since I agree that Roxy looks worse after that ISO. Not ready to crucify her, but you made some good points.

MP was willing to change his tune on a dime after i first raised some suspicion of Roxy in a Day 2 ISO. Roxy wasn't under much pressure at this point other than from me, so this move can be seen two ways. MP lending me this support could only serve to encourage others to look into it and thus increase the pressure on Roxy. but at the same time, MP waffled a bit in the final sentence which can be seen negatively by someone with an eye for the negative.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 53#p144753 -- Rainbow #5. Roxy plummets to slight mafia read. consistent with the above change.

Spoiler: show

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Roxy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Roxy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Rox, what convinces you that G-Man's posting restriction isn't self-inflicted? Do you think it has to do with his role?
Bc as I said I have seen this type of role many times on other sites. They restriction lasts for the entire game. So yep I think its his role, I have not scoured the first page yet to see which role this restriction could fit. I have seen these type of restrictions on both good and baddie roles. So I hope Gman continues to post his thoughts more often. I do find his picture posts easy to decipher. So personally I do not find him suspicious at this time.

linky I got your Iso right here MP
That's fair enough, but how would Russ and Llama have found out about such a role, since they don't play elsewhere? I mean, I don't disagree with you, I just find it interesting you're so sure it isn't a ploy. It probably isn't, but I'm far from sure.

And lol. That's usually my ISO. But I'm not a this game. Kinda wish I was though. :P
Mostly bc I know a lot of us have been roaming around other sites involved in the Champion Games maybe they were just checking out other sites role types or maybe they looked for some different type roles on the mafiascum wiki - ofc there are many wikis about types of mafia roles - why are you so sure they are so narrow minded that the would not look for or want to try new things? You do know them better than I.
That's fair enough. I just know Russ has been super busy RL and that he built this game mostly pre-Champions and that Llama generally sticks around here, so I am a bit surprised if these two particular hosts used a lot of non-Syndicate conventions, or even any for that matter, in this game.

If G-Man is faking, he's managed to skate by two days completely undiscussed, and may for the foreseeable future, so that's why I keep considering it. That said, I still am not sure that's the case. I just really have no idea what's going on, since I can't think of any scenario that I think is likely to explain his behavior.

here's a good exchange in which Roxy and MP discuss the matter of G-Man. i highlight it because i think it works into the same point Turnip made recently about Roxy's consciousness of G-Man in the game. this conversation makes me feel as though there is no team which consisted of Roxy, G-Man, and MP. that might seem obvious, but i have seen more outrageous and bold bussing than MP/G-Man would have been. so i like to have this to help remove that tinfoil from my mind.

Spoiler: show

in the GTH exercise, MP called Roxy a townie. this might be called interesting because it mildly conflicts with the "slight mafia read" he had previously given in most recent rainbow. at the same time though, analytic reads and gut reads aren't always going to line up. mine didn't either.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I also find it very interesting that Rox has been consistently misrepresenting me and says that I have given no explanation for my feelings on splints.

one characteristic of this interaction in the mid-section of the game so far was their strong disagreement about splints. MP was highly suspicious of splints in light of the BR mafia flip, and Roxy was adamantly opposed to that in defense of splints. i said this made splints look great, but i'm not sure how it reflects on MP. i don't struggle to see a scenario in which team mates argue with one another about a townie's alignment. this is an isolated thing though and must be assessed in combination with everything else.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 01#p146501 -- MP mini-rainbow on Night 3. Roxy is the second-biggest mafia read.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 82#p146682 -- another mini-rainbow soon follows, this one placing Roxy as the top suspect. so the shift is complete from moderate town read to top suspect. i don't think this looks bad though because MP's shift was very gradual, and every time he changed her position he was thorough about explaining why. that's the value of TRANSPARENCY man.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 92#p146792 -- MP lists a bunch of potential mafia team arrangements. Roxy is included in all of them but one, which replaces her with Turnip. i think this is consistent and sensible for the fact that later in her "life" her biggest foe was Turnip. so the either/or mindset makes sense.

"Rox" appears 92 times in the last page of MP's post history, so fuck that.

essentially it becomes a series of posts which build suspicion upon Roxy and implicate aether and G-Man as her most likely team mates. if this is bussing, then one can at least assert that she is setting up mislynches afterwords. something to consider, but i am not going with that theory right now.

~~~

MP's probably town. there's a little room for doubt to be cast upon that, but i think town is most likely. now i know what it must feel like to ISO me.

#2809

Jay wrote:DDL's belated GTH reads included a mafia read on Roxy. this might be rather interesting in that he also had a mafia read on BWT, which would suggest bussing. DDL can you talk about how you feel about this now (re: Golden 2.0)? this isn't meant to be accusatory, i am just curious.

Sure. I had bwt as one of my main suspects. Then Golden 2.0 came, and I still had him as suspect for how his posting style weirded me out. But then I pointed that out, and I liked Golden's defenses. I think I was neutral on him at that point.

I do like how Golden was the main driver of the Roxy lynch. If that was bussing, that was one SERIOUS bussing. Like an incredibly risky, MVP-awarding bussing. He was pushing the Roxy lynch when the most other people were doing was place her low on their rainbow lists.

I'm leaning slighly town on him now. There're still some things about him and bwt that bug me, but I wouldn't lynch him in the near future. I'd also like to point out that he only had 1 cycle to play since he came back, so the amount of data on him should be small. Future votes will hopefully vindicate or incriminate him.

By the way, can you explain the bwt bussing thing? I don't get it.

Turnip Head wrote:Something tells me Roxy wouldn't bus a teammate who was also a new player to the site, especially not all game.

I don't get this point either. Can you explain?

(yes I realize I'm questioning a post that's defending me but I'm just curious)

MovingPictures07 wrote:To add to the '13 Champions story, consequently, because my VGV team fell apart super early, and one of the members even became recruited, I decided to give Creeper a secret ability for kill activation. That was the only game where I actually made a host edit while the game was going, but realizing the unfair setup that I had created, thought it was for the best.

Considering I never want to have to do that again, I'm incredibly hesitant to leave the mafia without a kill, and I think the sentiment is generally shared except in unconventional cases.

I once had a game where I gave a town player 3 lives. But he never showed up to play and I had to replace him. When I went to send the role PM to the new player, I only gave him 2 lives.

Sneaky edit is sneaky.

I'd rather not do that again. But it was my first game as a host, and I had so many little issues with balance.

MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MP, what do you think of my semi-proposal regarding Vompatti? i'll answer your questions soon, once i get your analysis posted.
Are you proposing we lynch him tomorrow or on D6?

I absolutely 100% think that we should lynch G-Man tomorrow and I don't see any reason to NOT do so.

Even on D6, I think it makes way more sense to lynch aether or Bass than to lynch Vompatti, but on that Day I'm more receptive to hearing you out.

I don't like this. We should lynch of the most suspicious players before attempting any policy lynches on people like vomps. The probability of catching mafia while doing that is pretty low, so I'd be likely a waste of time. I get the fear of letting vomps live to lylo, but right now I'd rather rkeep with the flow of the game and keep attacking the ones we've been suspecting till now.

Maybe with 1 mafioso left (assuming no mafia Epi), this would be more interesting, though.

Now, to be fair, I have no idea how to deal with Vomps otherwise. How do you people usually do it?

#2810

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:By the way, can you explain the bwt bussing thing? I don't get it.

Roxy was somewhat vocal about suspecting BWT before he was replaced.

#2811

i certainly understand anyone not wanting a policy lynch of Vompatti. i don't really even mean for it to be a "policy lynch". i only even bring it up because i think we've bought ourselves a little breathing room with the last three lynches all on baddies. and if the mafia ever kill Vomp then that'll be a huge surprise.

if he's is playing at LyLo, i fear he'll be auto-lynched -- obviously a problem if he's town. he's put us in that position unfortunately, and i don't want the mafia to have the opportunity to use him that way. and obviously if he is mafia (which is a real possibility that can't just be discarded because he's unreadable), then all the better.

i'm just talking about it though, not necessarily endorsing it. there's no good way to handle a player that deliberately plays this way.

#2812

Alright for some reason I feel like making a rainbow.

Likely Mafia

acrosstheaether
G-Man
Bass

No Idea

Vomps

Slighly Town

fingerplints
Golden 2.0

Likely Town

sanmateo
JJJ
MP
Turnip

I don't have strong town or strong mafia reads on anyone, though. I'm kind or wary of having those.

#2813

Meaningful interaction between/about Roxy and sanmateo

Roxy wrote:Mateo - I have been agreeing with most of your posts especially today. I agree an ATE vote is off bc they have been replaced and also if I am not mistaken Russti/llama had said they could not be lynched today - so yah useless votes are useless.

Roxy's Day 2 read of sanmateo is a positive one. at this point most people were reading sanmateo this way i think so this was probably an easy stance for Roxy to take no matter what sanmateo's alignment is.

Roxy wrote:Mateo - I hope everything is ok sending good vibes your way! I am not feeling you =r jjj suspicion mostly bc i have been reading him as civ. You do have experience with him so I will watch him more closely but for right now he is civ to me.

Roxy's Day3 read of sanmateo actually says nothing about him and instead ends up a read of me.

sanmateo wrote:jay has basically taken over the thread but hasnt really been as thoroug as he usually is, jay do u feel this is true at all, do you think it could be because of playing with people u dont kno or is it the lack of a flip?

i think the only person he has expressed suspicion of 2day is roxy, which is a really well construced case fwiw

this was san's first acknowledgement of Roxy. the post is actually about me, but at least he does lend a little support to the case i built against her.

sanmateo wrote:
Roxy wrote:Sorry to have missed the vote I had work and family issues to resolve.

splints made her case from the begining - some said she had tunnel vision otherssaid she was not actively pursuing baddies now suddenly she is bussing someone????

Does anyone read my posts about her?? I am sooooo surprised at MP, he knows her as well as me and should know that this is her civ game. I am not liking what he is saying.
Splints has given us our first mafia in a lynch and you all think she is bad after gunning for BR since Day 1!
on anyone who srsly ursues her for lynch.
she didnt *actually* voted for br tho

they disagree somewhat softly about the matter of splints as she looked during the BR lynch.

Spoiler: show

sanmateo provided a rainbow on Day 4 and threw Roxy in the neutral pile. this is significant perhaps since this was the day in which Roxy came under heavy fire from a number of players, so san's different perspective does stand out.

sanmateo wrote:i think acrosstheaether would be the best lynch today. i don't know what to think about roxy, the only that caught my attention was the defense of fingersplints

endorses an aether lynch over a Roxy lynch.

sanmateo wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Something to note: G-Man won the singing contest (for good reason, I suck at singing), so I'm not sure whether we'll be seeing something as crazy as a lynch stop level power, but it's something to keep in mind.
i think it's possible

i'm not gonna vote roxy, she should be replaced. it's ludicrous so many people are voting her. look at acrosstheaether sneaking in a vote right there again, there goes my vote

san's is outright defending Roxy at this point, suggesting she should be replaced instead. this would have given a mafia player another day to live, which can make a crippling difference. san's vote for aether was the first for her, and it came when Roxy had already amassed 6 votes. in that light his vote could be called pointless, but also a curious strategy if he is mafia -- Roxy was clearly getting lynched so why not just pile on? maybe he felt being the 7th vote would be overkill and look worse than a separate vote for the suspect he's carried the whole game.

~~~

i think sanmateo looks a bit worse now. one is forced to decide whether his perspective of Roxy was more "wrong townie" or "protective mafia buddy". most of us have been calling sanmateo a town read the whole game, so that might be something at least worth re-assessing.

#2814

MovingPictures07 wrote:That said, I realize that sounds a bit ridiculous, naturally. :P

I'll check back in, particularly to see your analysis that apparently makes me look more like a puke colored sock than a rainbow colored one, but I need to get some homework done.

we should wait for a while before we start tinfoiling imo

#2815

acrosstheaether wrote:It would also be interesting to see who has been suspiciously defensive of Roxy. The nightkill is the mafia's most beneficial weapon, surely they would do anything to keep the role that allows for that.

#2816

CTRL+F'd Roxy's posts for "TH" and got 1,526 results. that abbreviation has to stop. :P

#2817

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:CTRL+F'd Roxy's posts for "TH" and got 1,526 results. that abbreviation has to stop. :P

Try putting spaces before and after.

#2818

thellama73 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:CTRL+F'd Roxy's posts for "TH" and got 1,526 results. that abbreviation has to stop. :P

Try putting spaces before and after.

you are the secret genius of our time

#2819

Why Bass and æther?

#2820

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: san's is outright defending Roxy at this point, suggesting she should be replaced instead. this would have given a mafia player another day to live, which can make a crippling difference. san's vote for aether was the first for her, and it came when Roxy had already amassed 6 votes. in that light his vote could be called pointless, but also a curious strategy if he is mafia -- Roxy was clearly getting lynched so why not just pile on? maybe he felt being the 7th vote would be overkill and look worse than a separate vote for the suspect he's carried the whole game.

seeing how 3 more people came in afterwards to be EXTRA-sure that roxy would be lynched, i dont think throwing my vote there would've looked particularly suspicious. imo the scum is among the people who didnt say she was suss and voted for her when she admitted defeat (ddl, acrosstheaether, i think g-man?). i still think she should've been replaced if she really didnt want to play.

#2821

sanmateo wrote:imo the scum is among the people who didnt say she was suss and voted for her when she admitted defeat (ddl, acrosstheaether, i think g-man?)

I like this point.

(though I don't like my name on it

)

After Roxy started calling it quits, bussing her would be a lot easier. I'd look for players whose opinions of her changed after that.

Note that mine didn't, though. I had her as a #3-#4 suspect when the phase started, and I never changed that view. My stance on lynching Roxy before others was a strategic one, based on the fact she did not request for a replacement, and just let herself get lynched instead.

#2822

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Something tells me Roxy wouldn't bus a teammate who was also a new player to the site, especially not all game.
I don't get this point either. Can you explain?

(yes I realize I'm questioning a post that's defending me but I'm just curious)

Knowing Roxy, if she had BTSC with a new member, her first instinct would not be to fling poo poo at that player all game.

#2823

Meaningful interaction between/about Roxy and Turnip Head

Spoiler: show

Roxy was critical of Turnip from his very first post. i think it was pretty easy to cast suspicion upon him at this point, since he showed up a little later in Day 1 and dropped a vote immediately. so in that light he looks decent already.

Roxy wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:I guess the difference is I'm being obviously un-TH like and Golden feels like he's trying to hide it.

I can elaborate when I get home tonight but if you're interested in looking into it just read his filter.
I for one cannot wait for this elaboration.
I feel the opposite about Golden.

we've talked a lot about this post reflected poorly on Roxy, but what does it mean for Turnip? i would say it's another positive point for him, because Roxy is setting him up to look crappy when Golden flips town.

Roxy wrote:Turnips - Why dear vegee are you voting so early with no reasoning again? You were so wrong about Golden and now you try and do the same with Bubbles. I hope no one will follow this silliness again since the results proved disastrous last lynch. You are my biggest suspicion right now based solely on the way you are voting and your reasoning against Golden was unfounded.
Who are your top 3 suspects and why? What do you think about MM and Epi dying? Why slap an unchangeable vote down with over 24 hours yet to go? Why not say your suspicion and give Bubbles a chance to respond?

more of the same. Turnip's case against Golden turned out incorrect, and had he pursued Bubbles harder he would have been incorrect there too. so in this post Roxy is setting him up again (so boldly that it got her in more trouble than him). i think it's also a bit telling that she fell for his fake vote, because mafia members are likely to pay close attention to the voting patters of their team mates.

Roxy wrote:I am most suspicious of Turnips for things i have already said. I am not getting civ vibes from him at all I am getting the cold chills from his drive by votes and I cannot believe so many are trusting him when he has done nothing to earn that trust.

the theme continues late into Day 2. she's making every effort to discredit Turnip, so if they're team mates then this is a doubly-damaging bus job. not only is she trying to make him look suspicious, she's trying to make other people take him less seriously. he can't influence the game as much if people perceive her to be right about him, which would almost defeat the purpose of bussing him i think.

Roxy wrote:FYI My time is up for now I will be back around lynch time in the mean time I am putting my vote on Turnips

should not be a surprise to anyone.

Roxy avoided the Elohcin vote-avalanche on Day 2 and dropped this isolated vote on Turnip. on RYM there actually is some precedent for these kind of evasive votes to land on mafia mates as a soft bus. in this case though i see it more as just plain evasive. Roxy probably thought Elohcin would flip town and wanted to get away from it. so she threw a vote on her claimed top suspect.

Roxy wrote:Turnips - please respond to something/anything I have said or asked this, this, this, this and/or this.

i thought Roxy's complaints about Turnip ignoring her were the most genuine-seeming things she said in this game. if this turns out to be a means of bussing, it will be a very creative method. i don't know if i've seen before one mafioso completely ignoring the other like this despite all pleas for a response.

Spoiler: show

more of the same. Roxy discredits Turnip and doesn't relent on her suspicions at all.

Roxy wrote:I have caught and first would like to comment about Sloon and their posts during the night phase.
S/He went after both Dragon and Turnips fairly strongly only to be no u'ed by Dragon.

she threw a little more shade on him in light of the Sloonei death.

Spoiler: show

most of Turnip's early posts about Roxy were directly in responses to posts like those above. the first interesting thing i find is here in the GTH exercise. i'm a little surprised he called Roxy town here. i suppose he didn't start going after her harder until a little later in the game.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 26#p146826 -- large post in which Turnip adds to suspicion of Roxy in response to Golden's against/neutral/for post.

i think Turnip was the biggest driver of the Roxy lynch. all due respect to Golden, but he left himself some room for uncertainty and Turnip crushed it here. i think this looks good for obvious reasons. the only thing i can say to the contrary is that Turnip's vote for Roxy was the 5th. but he also seemed to be paying a lot of attention to the G-Man drama as it developed and that would seem a logical reason for his stalling.

~~~

i think Turnip looks good.

#2824

Meaningful interaction between/about Roxy and Vompatti

Roxy wrote:Vomps (PKA AcrossTE) - Seems ok so far posting is expensive in Finland

vague assertion that he looks okay. i have no idea why he'd have looked okay or not okay or anything at this point. or any point.

Roxy wrote:
Vompatti wrote:Voted for Llama for science.
Did you just vote llama bc I had just posted that I would anyone who voted one of the Hosts?

i kind of like this post for Vomps. i don't think anyone at all was surprised when he voted for llama instead of an actual player. so that Roxy felt the need to say this to him does bear the appearance of a poo fling on a relatively easy target for such a poo fling.

Vompatti wrote:Even if she won't be playing I'm not voting for a likely civ and I don't know why any other civ would either.

*votes G*

he said this about Roxy. obviously it's not ideal on the surface. his vote for G-Man came when Roxy had 3 votes on her, and there was still time for the tide to turn i think. so this is another scenario in which one's read on this depends entirely on one's read of G-Man. and there's always the problem with Vomps of wondering how much sense it even makes to explore his motives, because i don't know if he even knows what they are.

~~~

that's pretty much it. i'm glad i found one post i liked. and while i continue to view G-Man as a valid suspect, the last point isn't quite as big a knock against him. so with that stated, i am no longer interested in lynching Vomps next. G-Man makes much more sense, and the results of that would say more about Vomps.

#2825

Rainbow based solely on how players look in their interactions with Roxy:

Turnip Head
fingersplints
Dragon D. Luffy
MovingPictures07
Bass_the_Clever
Vompatti
birdwithteeth11/Golden
acrosstheaether
sanmateo
G-Man

#2826

MovingPictures07 wrote:Jay, what do you think of aether's increased activity? I'm loving it, and have two competing explanations, but want to hear your thoughts first, as you know her better than I do.

i think i can imagine what your competing explanations are. my initial perspective is a positive one, at least at face value. at this point in the game i try to assess players more objectively, because there is so much content to work with that vague feelings like those about a player's posting rate changing are less meaningful to me. i think the better person to ask this question is...

aether herself. hey aether, what has inspired your heightened rate of activity lately in this game?

#2827

Ricochet wrote:omelette au fromage

#2828

I'm glad I put Roxy in my town reads with the GTH exercise. Labeling her mafia at that time probably would have taken some air out of any future case I built on her because she would have labeled my suspicion as a NO U. I think part of Roxy's motivation for going after me early on was to make it difficult for me to counterattack her.

#2829

JJJ - I read all your posts and I don't have much to say other then I agree with your conclusion Gman looks the worst in relation to Rox.

I am wondering a bit why she wasn't more defensive of bass? If she was defensive of other civvies in thread (like me) then why didn't she defend him more when I gave her plenty of opportunity to.

fingersplints wrote: linki @ Sloonei - Bass is Roxy's son, and that is why I asked her opinion of him earlier. She can read him very well, so if she says he is alright I believe it for now.

So right now Gman and aether seem most suspicious, but I am still wary of Golden 2.0 (bwt) and bass.

#2830

It would seem G-Man stands as the likely lynch at the moment. To ensure we maintain dialogue about others, I'll pose a few general questions to everyone (if you've not already spoken of these things at length):

1.) I would say the players who were most vocally in opposition to the Roxy lynch were Vompatti and sanmateo. What do you make of that?

2.) How seriously would you take a theory that suggests Golden bussed Roxy?

3.) If one of the near-consensus town reads is mafia, who do you think it would be?

#2831

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It would seem G-Man stands as the likely lynch at the moment. To ensure we maintain dialogue about others, I'll pose a few general questions to everyone (if you've not already spoken of these things at length):

1.) I would say the players who were most vocally in opposition to the Roxy lynch were Vompatti and sanmateo. What do you make of that?

Nothing and maybe something, respectively.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:2.) How seriously would you take a theory that suggests Golden bussed Roxy?

Mildly seriously, I'd have to consider his other contributions.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:3.) If one of the near-consensus town reads is mafia, who do you think it would be?

sanmateo

#2832

To clarify:

The way I run my games is this. The kill is a role power held by a certain player. However, should that player die, the kill passes down to the next player on the role list until the entire baddie team has been eliminated. I should have noted this in the role descriptions; apologies for any confusion. I didn't realize some of these differences in game setup existed at other sites, and thus failed to elaborate on some thing that are ordinary to me.

So someone will be dying tonight.

#2833

LOL, Jay. You had me seriously wondering what you could have possibly uncovered in my interactions with Roxy that looked badly.

That's unfortunate re: host clarification, meaning Keynes was the weakest of his group for sure, vanilla essentially.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Now, to be fair, I have no idea how to deal with Vomps otherwise. How do you people usually do it?

We don't.

Usually what happens with Vompatti is he quickly becomes a lynch target and gets lynched immediately or eventually for something he's said at some point, or he skates by to endgame because mafia don't NK him and people excuse his behavior as "Vomps".

There's never really a coordinated effort to deal with him, though people that are new to him usually try to develop such an effort. I remember Turnip's frustration when he first played a game with him... does he?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It would seem G-Man stands as the likely lynch at the moment. To ensure we maintain dialogue about others, I'll pose a few general questions to everyone (if you've not already spoken of these things at length):

1.) I would say the players who were most vocally in opposition to the Roxy lynch were Vompatti and sanmateo. What do you make of that?

2.) How seriously would you take a theory that suggests Golden bussed Roxy?

3.) If one of the near-consensus town reads is mafia, who do you think it would be?

1. Doesn't affect my read for either of them. Not sure what to make of it, since Roxy had become a very hot topic by the time either of that really voiced disapproval, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong).

2. Not very, but I'd consider it.

3. Either sanmateo or you, though the latter is tinfoiling and based on your defense of G-Man, so, by that logic, if your defense of G-Man affects my viewpoint of you, I should revise my answer to 1.

#2834

MovingPictures07 wrote:There's never really a coordinated effort to deal with him, though people that are new to him usually try to develop such an effort. I remember Turnip's frustration when he first played a game with him... does he?

I do. lol.

#2835

lmao, how did I miss JJJ's burn re:MP, sig'd (my first ever)

#2836

So given the recent discussion I had to take a quick trip down memory lane, since WWE was so classic (it was Turnip's first game on this site)...

This is usually what happens with Vompatti.

Spoiler: show

#2837

Heh. I'm not wasting a lot of energy with Vomps because the forum I come from is filled with people like that. It's actually refreshing to play a game with only one Vomps.

Guys like those... I guess it's like MP said, you find a small reason to lynch them and do it. Or better, policy lynch them on D1 before they become a problem. Or use an information ability and confirm them so everyone can proceed to ignore them. The later is harder to do in this forum, though.

I stand that we should lynch the most agreeable suspects first. If that doesn't work, we flush Vomps down, and then move to endgame scenarios which hopefully won't include him.

#2838

I lol'd at Turnip's quotes though. Dude would flip on Naruto Forums.

#2839

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I stand that we should lynch the most agreeable suspects first. If that doesn't work, we flush Vomps down, and then move to endgame scenarios which hopefully won't include him.

#2840

That said, I've seen Vompatti contribute to games before in a mostly non-trolling way, but it's been a while.

Even when he is avant-garde, I sometimes like to believe there is a way to gauge his intentions by what he is actually saying, but that may be wishful thinking, and other times I just give up.

For now, I have no reason to believe Vompatti is mafia.

Linki w/ DDL: I echo this plan as well. I still think aether or Bass are much more likely mafia before Vompatti, so even if that means Vompatti has to be around at endgame THIS game, I think it's better to follow the G-Man --- aether or Bass --- aether or Bass (whichever survived the lynch before).

#2841

I've been indoctrinated into the ways of Vompatti since then. I'm a Vomps apologist now. We're cool.

I hope nobody else takes up his shtick though. :P

#2842

Turnip Head wrote:I've been indoctrinated into the ways of Vompatti since then. I'm a Vomps apologist now. We're cool.

I hope nobody else takes up his shtick though. :P

+ 1

#2843

It should be evident how I'm feeling, but I'm going to drop this here in case I die tonight, and also because YAY COLORS!

DDL
fingersplints
Turnip

sanmateo

Golden 2.0
JJJ
Vompatti

Bass

aether

G-Man

#2844

Problem is the timing though. Let's say we lynch aether, Bass and G-Man. Those are my suspects, not everybody's, but let's assume they are.

That gives us 4 people left after mafia kills. Maybe less if they use items. Welcome to lylo w/ Vomps.

So if we want to get rid of Vomps while also avoiding him on end game, we need to get rid of him by day 7, at most.

#2845

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It would seem G-Man stands as the likely lynch at the moment. To ensure we maintain dialogue about others, I'll pose a few general questions to everyone (if you've not already spoken of these things at length):

1.) I would say the players who were most vocally in opposition to the Roxy lynch were Vompatti and sanmateo. What do you make of that?

2.) How seriously would you take a theory that suggests Golden bussed Roxy?

3.) If one of the near-consensus town reads is mafia, who do you think it would be?

1- Not much. sanmateo's questioning about stuff that's going on fits how he has been playing the game. It sounds like him to think people are suspicious for lynching Roxy and wanting no part on that. And his vote wouldn't change anything at that point, though you may wonder why he took so long to vote.

Vomps is Vomps. He literally say Roxy looked civ. Just... wtf.

2- It's always possible, but right now I'm not inclined to believe that. A good player could pull that off though, and people say Golden is a pretty good player so... yeah. Gotta wait for more data.

3- Among the ones I colored blue, either you or sanmateo. Sanmateo is more likely imo, but I can't drop this gut feeling that we are letting you get away too easily.

#2846

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Problem is the timing though. Let's say we lynch aether, Bass and G-Man. Those are my suspects, not everybody's, but let's assume they are.

That gives us 4 people left after mafia kills. Maybe less if they use items. Welcome to lylo w/ Vomps.

So if we want to get rid of Vomps while also avoiding him on end game, we need to get rid of him by day 7, at most.

Oh, I see.

I hadn't mapped it out.

Well, I suppose we will have to go G-Man D5, aether or Bass D6, then maybe Vomps D7?

The only problem with that is that I don't really think Vomps is bad, and I could probably even see Jay or sanmateo before Vomps, but of course that's very difficult to judge.

#2847

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This part is pretty important. Golden was the very first vote for Roxy, and it came at a time when i thought the thread could definitely move against G-Man instead. so in the event that G-Man is town, Golden should look pretty super here. but if G-Man is still perceived as a suspect, then this decision by Golden is irrelevant to his appearance now. i think G-Man is a valid suspect so i lean towards the latter.

~~~

i do think there are a lot of interesting points here. birdwithteeth11/Golden emerge from this investigation looking a little worse to me honestly. the big question obviously must be this: was Golden's hard-line work against Roxy on Day 4 really bussing? i think it can be on two fronts -- Roxy was already a highly likely lynch candidate anyway. and if G-Man is a suspect too, then it didn't matter which one of the two Golden pursued here.

i don't think i would endorse his lynch on Day 5. but if the game proceeds longer than expected and a final suspect is proving difficult to identify, this case might be something to return to.

I think that there are some things in your analysis that aren't quite fair in the context of when I made each post. I don't think it's true that Roxy was already a 'highly likely lynch candidate' when I came after her, in fact at the time I mentioned her I didn't know anyone else was after her and it was only in my reread of day 3 that I saw TH brought her up first. and also G-Man wasn't even on the radar.

I'm not sure how I can really address your points without wifom, so what I'm going to do is to set out my thought process across the period of time from, actually, before I re-entered the game until my vote for Roxy. And then I'll finish with a couple of points of wifom.

So, I originally offered to the hosts to sub in for aether, when aether said she was going to sub out. Already at that moment in time my main suspects were TH, TB and Roxy - I guess that was particularly in light of the way they handled my lynch and the aftermath but they were the people I most thought seemed bad. Then Omerta started and I put my effort into that and stopped really following this thread as closely.

When I got the PM asking if I could sub back in, I couldn't wait to get back into the thread and talk about these perspectives I had gotten to. Then the next thing I did as read around the lynch area and I started thinking splints could be linked to roxy because roxy defended splints and splints had roxy right near the bottom of her 'reads' list, and I couldn't understand why because Roxy looked so bad to me. When I read day three, TH asked me if I had further thoughts on Roxy. I said yes, fully expecting my big post to come back feeling just as bad about rox (as it did after I read day three).

However, when I went back and actually did my reread of Roxy in iso, I did doubt myself. I thought that the stuff about me in particular wasn't quite as frequent or as bad as I felt it was at the time, and I didn't feel like there was actually that much to Roxy's post history. I found it difficult to build much of a case on her, even though that's what I had set out to do. It gave me pause, because I couldn't figure out exactly why I found Roxy so bad except for the one thing of her coming out after I died and saying 'I can't believe everyone couldn't see golden was good'. And there was a part of me that thought 'am I just overreacting because I'm the subject of Roxy's posting' - this is something I know can be a weakness of mine.

But when TH posted his points in response to my case, I realised there was something I hadn't done when building my case and that was actually go back and look at Roxy's posts in the context of when they were posted and he reminded me that some of Roxy's posts the timing really was off. Like the one where she questioned TH for his vote for me, which was so soon and long before even I had got to it. And when I went back and did that, the scummy feeling returned and I felt much more confident about my initial suspicion again.

I voted Roxy when I did because I wasn't sure if I'd be back to the thread. As it happens I was, but only because I woke up at 4.30 am yesterday... otherwise, I've only barely had the chance to check in since then once after Roxy's lynch. I didn't want to vote first, and certainly not that early, but I had flagged how busy I was over these few days and there isn't anything I can do about that.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I don't think you have fairly represented what I could have known at the time I was making my case against Roxy. You say that Roxy was 'already a highly likely lynch suspect' - which is true at the time I wrote my case. But it wasn't true at the time I subbed in (or at least it certainly didn't seem to me like it was), and I think part of the reason that Roxy was a 'highly likely lynch suspect' at the time I wrote the case is because I had already been suggesting she was bad. Along with TH.

As for the G-Man thing. I guess it could have gone either way that late in the piece (I don't actually think it could have, but you could argue the toss), but honestly I don't think when I was building a case on roxy it was a choice between Roxy/G-Man, like I'm picking a teammate to bus because I'm going to lose one either way... the whole G-Man thing came much later. I can see I'm probably wrong about G-Man now, but at the time I had G-Man pegged as civilian for the timing of his vote on BR.

I think your assessment of my posting activity actually relies on a different timing to how things went down in real time.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Now, the wifom bit. I do get that it's fair I get suspicion for bussing. My heart sunk when Roxy threw in the towel and self-voted, because I lose either way. Either she is civ and I look bad, or she is mafia and I look like I could be bussing. It's just one of those things. It sucks for me, and I actually think Roxy might have done it with exactly that goal in mind.

#2848

Russtifinko wrote:To clarify:

The way I run my games is this. The kill is a role power held by a certain player. However, should that player die, the kill passes down to the next player on the role list until the entire baddie team has been eliminated. I should have noted this in the role descriptions; apologies for any confusion. I didn't realize some of these differences in game setup existed at other sites, and thus failed to elaborate on some thing that are ordinary to me.

So someone will be dying tonight.

I'm already dead, so surely it won't be me.

#2849

MovingPictures07 wrote:I realize you have doubt, Jay, which is entirely logical, but for me, Roxy's posts regarding G-Man and the curse that I pointed out in D4 pretty much singlehandedly put the nail in G-Man's coffin once we found out he was faking. I know I exaggerate and go through periods where I exude extreme confidence and others with extreme waffling, but with Roxy's mafia flip, I'm positive we will catch a mafia in G-Man. The last member is a bit more difficult.

Spoiler: show

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Rainbow based solely on how players look in their interactions with Roxy:

Turnip Head
fingersplints
Dragon D. Luffy
MovingPictures07
Bass_the_Clever
Vompatti
birdwithteeth11/Golden
acrosstheaether
sanmateo
G-Man

Spoiler: show

#2850

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:It would seem G-Man stands as the likely lynch at the moment. To ensure we maintain dialogue about others, I'll pose a few general questions to everyone (if you've not already spoken of these things at length):

1.) I would say the players who were most vocally in opposition to the Roxy lynch were Vompatti and sanmateo. What do you make of that?

2.) How seriously would you take a theory that suggests Golden bussed Roxy?

3.) If one of the near-consensus town reads is mafia, who do you think it would be?

I pick door number 3.

I still feel very wary about DDL.

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

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