Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#2951

acrosstheaether wrote:How so? What would you think of Bass under the fact that I'm town? What would you think of me if Bass flips town, and if he flips scum?

If Bass is mafia it makes you look worse. The same is true in the opposite direction (if you're mafia it makes him look worse) but to a lesser extent. If Bass is town it says nothing about you.

I'll not say why though because you should know already. Why do you think this is?

#2952

Resurrection please

#2953

Actually I think aether's alignment is what says a lot about Bass. The opposite... not so much.

#2954

Either way i think sanmateo is right that the top suspect should be lynched regardless of these dynamics.

#2955

Right now i'm still inclined to vote G-Man.

#2956

Information lynches have some merit here. We only have 4 phases to catch 2 mafiosos, so being able to sort out the alignment of 2 suspects with a single lynch could be pretty useful. Of course we should restrict them to the most suspicious players, but they can be a good criterium. So we get more time to analyse the less suspicious players later.

That said, you are right in that Bass's alignment can also say something about aether.

I think it goes like this:

- If we lynch aether and she flips town, then Bass is very likely town.
- If we lynch aether and she flips mafia, then Bass is more likely mafia than he was before.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips mafia, then aether is very likely mafia.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips town, it doesn't mean anything about aether.

So an aether lynch should be somewhat more informative than a Bass lynch.

I haven't thought much about G-Man in that sense though. What does his alignment says about others, and vice-versa?

#2957

I went to do some reads on the suspects and something is bugging me:

acrosstheaether wrote:...but isn't solo in the context of teamwork as well? No mafia player is an island. You can't sever the individual from the wider societ- oh wait, this is getting into Radical Marxist Political Terroritory, no? G-Man obviously isn't a radical leftist, he's a neoliberal like the rest of us save two or three, everyone chill.

acrosstheaether wrote:It's funny how in this game my side is the direct opposite of my political ideology IRL.

This is a personal question so you don't have to answer if you don't to aether, but... what is your political ideology IRL? Left or right?

Because in one post you're implying you're a neoliberal, and in the other one you're saying your in-game alignment is opposite to your RL one. If both posts are true, then you're more or less admitting you're mafia.

I know this is probably kind of silly since mafia wouln't normally slip like that, but could you answer this?

Thanks, and again, sorry if the question is too personal.

#2958

This is an important lynch if the mafia were getting the stuff they need for an extra kill they will have everything after this night phase. So if there are two mafia left after this lynch that could mean 3 kills.

#2959

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show
i can't deny that this point is solid. the obvious danger is that if G-Man is mafia and teamed with a non-obvious player, the extra day alive allowed by the Bass lynch could put them over the top. that's why the point is solid though -- it seems to demand that a dissenter put on the tinfoil hat.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Information lynches have some merit here. We only have 4 phases to catch 2 mafiosos, so being able to sort out the alignment of 2 suspects with a single lynch could be pretty useful. Of course we should restrict them to the most suspicious players, but they can be a good criterium. So we get more time to analyse the less suspicious players later.

That said, you are right in that Bass's alignment can also say something about aether.

I think it goes like this:

- If we lynch aether and she flips town, then Bass is very likely town.
- If we lynch aether and she flips mafia, then Bass is more likely mafia than he was before.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips mafia, then aether is very likely mafia.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips town, it doesn't mean anything about aether.

So an aether lynch should be somewhat more informative than a Bass lynch.

I haven't thought much about G-Man in that sense though. What does his alignment says about others, and vice-versa?

Spoiler: show

#2960

The extra kill is already accounted for in my calculation, though. We have 10 players. With 3 more cycles, there should be 4 players left. If mafia gets their extra kill and uses it, that gives us 3 players. That gives us the last day of the game: day 8.

Other things could happen though, such as ressurrections and town using items to stop night kills. But the former is incredibly expensive and assumes a way better economy than the one we have now (yes I made that joke), and the later assumes a townie with mad prediction skillz, and it helps us anyway so who cares.

#2961

Spoiler: show

#2962

I think this is a little bit silly and a cyclical discussion. Going for "the most informative lynch" sounds like a good way to lose the game. And it all seems to be based entirely upon Bass's Day 3 vote, which is a move I think baddie-Bass always makes tbh; maybe how it would make aether look did not even factor into his thought process at the time, maybe it did. If I let you guys convince me to lynch Aether (because her lynch is most informative) and she flips town, next you'll be convincing me we can't lynch Bass because of aether's flip, and I think that's the wrong mindset. It doesn't feel like a productive way to make decisions.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:This is an important lynch if the mafia were getting the stuff they need for an extra kill they will have everything after this night phase. So if there are two mafia left after this lynch that could mean 3 kills.

If it was so important, you would be trying to help us figure out who to lynch.

#2963

Day 3 wrote:acrosstheaether
3
fingersplints (5), Dragon D. Luffy (8), Black Rock (11) 23%
Bass_the_Clever
1
TinyBubbles (4) 8%
birdwithteeth11
0
No votes
Black Rock
5
G-Man (7), MovingPictures07 (9), JaggedJimmyJay (10), Bass_the_Clever (12), Turnip Head (13) 38%

If you're Bass and you're bad, how do you cast this vote? He's vote #12. Black Rock was #11, and voted aether entirely out of self preservation (did not mention suspicion of aether at all, IIRC). Can Bass, as a baddie, in good conscience follow BR's vote here, and vote for aether? TH has vote #13, and has been gunning for BR all Day, so he is likely to vote that way. sanmateo was the wildcard at this point I believe; I think he said he was going to vote for BR but ended up missing the deadline. All other votes are accounted for, except for Roxy - missed the vote as a baddie, so she did not attempt to save BR; and aether herself - who would have been forced to either vote herself or for BR in an act of self preservation, if she had bothered to vote at all.

Again, my question is, is there any other way for baddie-Bass to play this vote other than the way he did?

#2964

The one doubt remaining for me, Turnip, is wildcard sanmateo. He'd spent a good amount of effort on Day 3 calling aether suspicious, meaning baddie Bass could fairly expect him to vote that way.

Hell, i expected him to vote aether. He said he'd go for BR "to prevent a no lynch" (ties are no lynches on RYM) at the last minute but missed the deadline.

#2965

[quote=Turnip Head]I think this is a little bit silly and a cyclical discussion. Going for "the most informative lynch" sounds like a good way to lose the game. And it all seems to be based entirely upon Bass's Day 3 vote, which is a move I think baddie-Bass always makes tbh; maybe how it would make aether look did not even factor into his thought process at the time, maybe it did. If I let you guys convince me to lynch Aether (because her lynch is most informative) and she flips town, next you'll be convincing me we can't lynch Bass because of aether's flip, and I think that's the wrong mindset. It doesn't feel like a productive way to make decisions.[/quote]

I'm not suspecting town just because of the information though, i'm suspecting her because of her suspicious behavior including: jumping on bandwagons without explanation, avoiding almost every question that was asked to her and generally acting like she doesn't care about the game.

[quote=G-Man]

Spoiler: show

[/quote]

Because I don't have to vote for someone just because there's a strong case on them. I've been suspecting aether since day 1 and I wanted to stick to that, specially since her behavior at that moment was reaching a peak in scuminess.

[quote=G-Man]

Spoiler: show

[/quote]

You may have a point here. Let's say Bass is mafia and aether is town. He votes for aether to save BR. But the lynch fails, because a single vote isn't enough to change the result (keep in mind that BR won by two votes, and that's because sanmateo missed the deadline since, according to him, he was gonna vote for BR). Otherwise, BR survives, but gets lynched later for whatever reason.

That's look pretty terribly for Bass. Shouldn't it be better for him to just distance himself?

If that's the case, the lynch isn't as informative as initially thought.

#2966

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The one doubt remaining for me, Turnip, is wildcard sanmateo. He'd spent a good amount of effort on Day 3 calling aether suspicious, meaning baddie Bass could fairly expect him to vote that way.

Hell, i expected him to vote aether. He said he'd go for BR "to prevent a no lynch" (ties are no lynches on RYM) at the last minute but missed the deadline.

If Bass is considering all these scenarios, then he should also have considered that aether would vote BR to save herself. I think that lynch is way too tight for Bass to want to end up on the wrong side of it.

#2967

Sorry didn't mean "suspecting town", I meant "suspecting aether".

Also broken quotes are broken.

#2968

Sound point, Turnip. I'm warming to a Bass lynch.

BTW at work i can't see G-Man's pictures, so his conversation with DDL is illegible to me right now.

#2969

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I went to do some reads on the suspects and something is bugging me:

acrosstheaether wrote:...but isn't solo in the context of teamwork as well? No mafia player is an island. You can't sever the individual from the wider societ- oh wait, this is getting into Radical Marxist Political Terroritory, no? G-Man obviously isn't a radical leftist, he's a neoliberal like the rest of us save two or three, everyone chill.

acrosstheaether wrote:It's funny how in this game my side is the direct opposite of my political ideology IRL.
This is a personal question so you don't have to answer if you don't to aether, but... what is your political ideology IRL? Left or right?

Because in one post you're implying you're a neoliberal, and in the other one you're saying your in-game alignment is opposite to your RL one. If both posts are true, then you're more or less admitting you're mafia.

I know this is probably kind of silly since mafia wouln't normally slip like that, but could you answer this?

Thanks, and again, sorry if the question is too personal.

idk exactly but i think irl she's somewhere in the far-left, that first post was Snark. she wouldnt have slipped like that at all lol

#2970

G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show

everytime g-man actually talks he looks worse

#2971

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:I think this is a little bit silly and a cyclical discussion. Going for "the most informative lynch" sounds like a good way to lose the game. And it all seems to be based entirely upon Bass's Day 3 vote, which is a move I think baddie-Bass always makes tbh; maybe how it would make aether look did not even factor into his thought process at the time, maybe it did. If I let you guys convince me to lynch Aether (because her lynch is most informative) and she flips town, next you'll be convincing me we can't lynch Bass because of aether's flip, and I think that's the wrong mindset. It doesn't feel like a productive way to make decisions.
I'm not suspecting town just because of the information though, i'm suspecting her because of her suspicious behavior including: jumping on bandwagons without explanation, avoiding almost every question that was asked to her and generally acting like she doesn't care about the game.

I suppose these are the same reasons I think aether is town, haha.

#2972

sanmateo wrote:
G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show

everytime g-man actually talks he looks worse

Agreed. It all just reads like G-Man has some sort of agenda. Aether reads like she has no agenda.

#2973

the biggest surprise of this game is sanmateo tolerating so many memes

Just saw G-Man's posts on my phone. I agree that he still looks bad.

I recall yesterday questioning the notion that Bass and G-Man would be mafia mates. Was that a thing? Please remind me why if so.

#2974

*someone else questioning

EBWOP

#2975

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:the biggest surprise of this game is sanmateo tolerating so many memes

Just saw G-Man's posts on my phone. I agree that he still looks bad.

I recall yesterday questioning the notion that Bass and G-Man would be mafia mates. Was that a thing? Please remind me why if so.

I don't remember why you were questioning it, but the Day 1 vote (and all their votes together, really) certainly puts some weight behind the theory that they're working together.

#2976

Spoiler: show

#2977

sanmateo, i've noticed that your name has been coming up more lately but you haven't really acknowledged that. any thoughts on people suspecting you a bit more? On the mild controversy over how you wanted to vote on Day 3?

#2978

What flaw G-Man?

#2979

G-Man wrote:

Looks like you're pretty savvy with the thread's barometer there, G-Man. Can you quantify for me how aether has more suspicion on her than Bass? Talking about individual players' thoughts on both, here. You yourself came out strong against Bass suddenly today, but only now you seem to be moving back towards aether, who you've spoken less about. You're making it sound like the fact that players have suspected her continuously throughout the game is more reason to lynch her over the more specific pings about Bass.

#2980

G-Man wrote:

Hardy har har, G-Man.

#2981

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:sanmateo, i've noticed that your name has been coming up more lately but you haven't really acknowledged that. any thoughts on people suspecting you a bit more? On the mild controversy over how you wanted to vote on Day 3?

i understand why people suspect me for "defending" roxy but idk what to say about that. it's not really like she said "i give up, i'm scum" like profic did in the end of the last game i modded. i still think she should've asked for a replacement tho. as far as my day 3 vote goes idk what there is to say even, i'm pretty sure i told yall i was gonna hold on to it til the very end before any votes were cast. i missed the deadline cuz i'm dumb

#2982

G-Man wrote:

If G-Man flips town, there is no concrete answer as to what that data will look like just yet. We would need to go back and research who maintained suspicion of G-Man, who applied the pressure and who just parroted it, who defended him, who benefited from attention on him, etc.

#2983

one thing that is bugging me is that mp was the main person who suspected fingersplints during the end of day 3/night 3 and as day 4 came around he dropped that case and then he died, although i think he hinted at having an important role in the middle of his breakdown about g-man. idk if i'm explaining myself correctly or if it even makes sense, tbh i still think fingersplints is suss bc of that non-vote for br

#2984

sanmateo wrote:one thing that is bugging me is that mp was the main person who suspected fingersplints during the end of day 3/night 3 and as day 4 came around he dropped that case and then he died, although i think he hinted at having an important role in the middle of his breakdown about g-man. idk if i'm explaining myself correctly or if it even makes sense, tbh i still think fingersplints is suss bc of that non-vote for br

I'm looking forward to splintsy's current thoughts, I don't think we've heard from her yet this phase. I was thinking there was a good reason MP dropped his suspicion on her, and I've been feeling good about her lately, but I agree her Day 3 vote still stands out.

#2985

sanmateo wrote:one thing that is bugging me is that mp was the main person who suspected fingersplints during the end of day 3/night 3 and as day 4 came around he dropped that case and then he died, although i think he hinted at having an important role in the middle of his breakdown about g-man. idk if i'm explaining myself correctly or if it even makes sense, tbh i still think fingersplints is suss bc of that non-vote for br

fingersplints @ 10:39 am wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Not anything particularly.

But since you're asking, is there anyone you're suspecting besides BR?
I voted for aether. I made you a list of most to least suspicious. A whole bunch in the middle I don't know if I could really justify why I ranked one higher then the other. just gut feels I guess

Black Rock
Acrosstheaether
birdwithteeth11
Turnip Head
MovingPictures07
TinyBubbles
sanmateo
Dragon D. Luffy
JaggedJimmyJay
G-Man
Bass_the_Clever
Vompatti
Roxy
fingersplints

Turnip Head @ 1:07 pm wrote:Abusing the new spoiler tags. All spoilers are BR quotes that I'm replying to.

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:I don't think both of you are civs. Between the two of you I'm leaning more baddie on Splints then you. BTW I love playing with you, dancing and all.
The feeling is of course mutual

But BR... I can't help but notice that in this sentence you say you suspect splints more than you suspect me, but then you immediately pull some quotes from me, and then continue to make two more posts about me... and you say nothing else about splints.

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:After several posts of Golden is bad, your move Golden etc. You place this post as an easy out. Don't think I didn't see what you were doing here. I probably would have brought you up earlier if the disease hadn't taken over my life when it did.
And see, I think if you really suspected me for this, you would have said something about it much sooner. You had chances before now, despite the disease. You did not mention suspicion of me until I pushed you to talk more, and that is unlike you, because we both know we can't keep our mouths shut when we suspect one another :P The new people here don't know it, but I know that you keep a close eye on me when you're a civ, and this would have been part of your read on me earlier in the game if this were genuine even if you were sick at the time. You were still posting, you would have said something.

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:You got what you wanted TH, you put me back in the game and made me do work.

Turnip Head wrote:I'm going to go ahead and vote TinyBubbles.
What? Sure, TinyBubbles was working on flawed logic but instead of questioning it you just jump right on a vote? Seems like another easy way out.
This is how I know this case is retroactive. If you had been following along with this discussion in the context of the thread, you would know it's been pointed out multiple times by multiple people that this vote never happened. I think you reached back through my posts to see what you could dig up, but you're trying to make it look like you've suspected me all along.

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Black Rock is a really hard read. She has not contributed much, but it could be related to RL busyness. It could also be related to RL busyness AND being bad. She's missed both votes, FWIW.

And I do not discount the idea that splintsy and BR could be bad together, but I'm more inclined to look BR's way first, since I think splints might be onto something with her post about MP.

Black Rock wrote:Now I have to check my own posts, I don't remember saying I trust MP.
It shouldn't take you too long :P And you didn't say that. I'm looking carefully at what you did say though and wondering if you had an ulterior motive for responding the way you did to Elo in the post in question.
This is so non-committal. Just a post so you did actually discuss me.
That's... exactly what it is. Non-committal because it had been tough to get a read on you up until that point. Do you think I should have had a strong opinion on you one way or another by then, BR?

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:So somewhere back there you mentioned that you must have posted other things to catch my attention. You were right, I was being lazy. I would say though the biggest thing for me would still be the subtle backing of any suspicion of me without saying much of anything is the biggest ping.
So you're saying I'm suspicious for suspecting you. My intention has not been to be subtle, I take full responsibility for all of my feelings toward you BR. And you say I'm pushing suspicion of you without saying anything about you... well that's simply untrue.

Spoiler: show
Black Rock wrote:Crap I forgot to mention you did go through a period of asking semi-relevant questions to stay involved without giving an opinion. That's always ping worthy.
You probably forgot to mention it because you're making it up

TL;DR version: BR suspects me for pushing suspicion of her, I tell BR she would have suspected me for other things earlier in the game if she was being sincere, BR says she suspects splints more than me, then makes a list of things I did earlier in the game that she suddenly suspects me for, and says nothing further about splints. Not only do I think this shows BR's suspicion of me to be disingenuous, but I also think it reads like a baddie mindset.

#2986

I forgot to say it at the time, but but thank you G-Man for simply taking me at my word re: that meta analysis I did on BR. You voted based on it right away, despite you saying multiple times in this game that you're bad at reading meta/people yourself, and despite us not having played a game with each other in years. Thank you for your complete faith in my case

#2987

I voted for G-man now because I might sleep tomorrow.

#2988

Turnip Head wrote: Looks like you're pretty savvy with the thread's barometer there, G-Man. Can you quantify for me how aether has more suspicion on her than Bass? Talking about individual players' thoughts on both, here. You yourself came out strong against Bass suddenly today, but only now you seem to be moving back towards aether, who you've spoken less about. You're making it sound like the fact that players have suspected her continuously throughout the game is more reason to lynch her over the more specific pings about Bass.

Spoiler: show

Turnip Head wrote:I forgot to say it at the time, but but thank you G-Man for simply taking me at my word re: that meta analysis I did on BR. You voted based on it right away, despite you saying multiple times in this game that you're bad at reading meta/people yourself, and despite us not having played a game with each other in years. Thank you for your complete faith in my case

Spoiler: show

#2989

G-Man is extremely conscious of the voting and suspicion trends regarding Bass.

#2990

Spoiler: show

#2991

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man is extremely conscious of the voting and suspicion trends regarding Bass.

Except when he forgot to talk about it re: his Day 1 vote

Day 1 abridged poll results wrote:Bass_the_Clever
5
JaggedJimmyJay (6), birdwithteeth11 (7), Sloonei (14), Golden (15), MovingPictures07 (17)
28%
Golden
7
Turnip Head (4), Metalmarsh89 (5), Dragon D. Luffy (10), Epignosis (11), Elohcin (12), G-Man (16), Bass_the_Clever (18)
39%

G-Man Day 4 Hindsight wrote:My Day 1 vote was utter shit. It was a 100% uninformed vote. I knew from see other people's posts that Epi usually gets taken out early and he certainly seems like a pretty rash (but probably loveable) guy. From what little I actually did skim, I thought MP was being a mini-JJJ but a little less objective. In the end I voted for Golden only because I had no read on Golden out of the three of them.

#2992

G-Man wrote:

G-Man, if you've been paying as much attention as you say you have, you'd know I've been trying to discuss the relevance of the TinyBubbles kill for a while. She abruptly voted for Bass (after abruptly voting for Elo) and was abruptly NK'd that Night. Do you think the baddies thought TB was a discovery role? Did they think she had learned Bass's role?

#2993

We should not split this vote very much, as the baddies could have up to 8 night's worth of resources atm.

#2994

Turnip Head wrote:
sanmateo wrote:one thing that is bugging me is that mp was the main person who suspected fingersplints during the end of day 3/night 3 and as day 4 came around he dropped that case and then he died, although i think he hinted at having an important role in the middle of his breakdown about g-man. idk if i'm explaining myself correctly or if it even makes sense, tbh i still think fingersplints is suss bc of that non-vote for br
I'm looking forward to splintsy's current thoughts, I don't think we've heard from her yet this phase. I was thinking there was a good reason MP dropped his suspicion on her, and I've been feeling good about her lately, but I agree her Day 3 vote still stands out.

#2995

fingersplints wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
sanmateo wrote:one thing that is bugging me is that mp was the main person who suspected fingersplints during the end of day 3/night 3 and as day 4 came around he dropped that case and then he died, although i think he hinted at having an important role in the middle of his breakdown about g-man. idk if i'm explaining myself correctly or if it even makes sense, tbh i still think fingersplints is suss bc of that non-vote for br
I'm looking forward to splintsy's current thoughts, I don't think we've heard from her yet this phase. I was thinking there was a good reason MP dropped his suspicion on her, and I've been feeling good about her lately, but I agree her Day 3 vote still stands out.

#2996

#2997

#2998

This is happening.

#2999

Turnip Head wrote:This is happening.

#3000

Who killed our talkative teddy??