Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#3001

G-Man how can you live with yourself after numerous cold-blooded murders?

#3002

Turnip Head wrote:This is happening.

Spoiler: show

#3003

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I think it goes like this:

- If we lynch aether and she flips town, then Bass is very likely town.
- If we lynch aether and she flips mafia, then Bass is more likely mafia than he was before.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips mafia, then aether is very likely mafia.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips town, it doesn't mean anything about aether.

So an aether lynch should be somewhat more informative than a Bass lynch.

That's exactly how I felt coming in to the day. TH's confidence has me rethinking, though, (and he makes good points about TB). Prior to that I was pretty certain about my vote but he has me considering a Bass vote instead.

#3004

However, I agree with the sentiment that we should not lynch someone because it will 'give us more information' - not over someone we genuinely think is bad, at least.

#3005

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man how can you live with yourself after numerous cold-blooded murders?

Spoiler: show

#3006

John Nash is the best role in the history of mafia.

No idea who is playing against FS, though. Maybe G-Man himself. Otherwise I don't know, it seems everyone else has already posted in this phase.

#3007

#3008

G-Man wrote:

I have no devices with which to record myself.

Otherwise, I'd say you were on.

But you'd have stiffer competition with me, because unlike MP I would not wear a shirt saying 'vote no'.

#3009

I'm inclined to vote Bass right now. I want to see where my theory goes. Not just because of the possibility of a cop hunt like Turnip pointed out, but the possibility of TinyBubbles actually being a cop.

It's too much a coincidence. She starts making early votes with little explanation, catches a SK, then does it again and gets offed? It could be WIFOM from mafia's part, but nobody had pointed out the possibility of Bubbles being a cop until after she died.

The cop hunt theory is valid too though, even if TB herself wasn't a cop. I remember thinking MP might also be a cop, because of how ridiculously hard he was tunneling on Elo. And I think I read something about MP hinting to have an important role? Then guess who died right after TB.

I think this mafia is trying hard to hunt our info roles.

My suspicions on G-Man grow every time he opens his mouth, and I'm still not feeling good about aether, so I may still change my mind in this phase.

Turnip Head wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I'm not suspecting town just because of the information though, i'm suspecting her because of her suspicious behavior including: jumping on bandwagons without explanation, avoiding almost every question that was asked to her and generally acting like she doesn't care about the game.
I suppose these are the same reasons I think aether is town, haha.

Heh, weird. I suppose you think a real mafioso would try harder to get involved?

Vompatti wrote:I voted for G-man now because I might sleep tomorrow.

Well, at least an eventual G-Man flip might say something about Vomp's alignment, right?

Right guys?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man is extremely conscious of the voting and suspicion trends regarding Bass.

I noticed that. For someone who recently wrote a wall of text describing how he was having trouble catching up, he seems to have done the homework.

#3010

Golden wrote:
G-Man wrote:
I have no devices with which to record myself.

Otherwise, I'd say you were on.

But you'd have stiffer competition with me, because unlike MP I would not wear a shirt saying 'vote no'.

That's the shirt I was wearing that day -- it's a Doctor Who shirt that says "Vote No on Daleks" -- and I made the video in a hurry since I missed the deadline (forgot about it). So :P

Frankly, I didn't want to do it in the first place, I HATE singing in front of other people (except at a concert, when I like to think people can't hear me, when that's surely not true).

Oh, and REZZ PLZ

(This is entirely off-topic, I swear)

#3011

Also, Robert Solow is a jerk.

#3012

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:
G-Man wrote:
I have no devices with which to record myself.

Otherwise, I'd say you were on.

But you'd have stiffer competition with me, because unlike MP I would not wear a shirt saying 'vote no'.
Oh, and REZZ PLZ

No, I'm first in line.

#3013

G-Man wrote:

Yes. When I get home.

#3014

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man how can you live with yourself after numerous cold-blooded murders?

u channeling rdw now?

#3015

I feel like this thread has sort of reached it's natural conclusion on discussion for the day and I'm ready vote.

The only reason I'm not is because it seems ridiculous to vote so early.

#3016

I'm in the same boat Golden.

#3017

Turnip Head wrote:I'm in the same boat Golden.

I'm an impatient person in general lol. Although actually a breather is what I need.

#3018

If you guys can think up an interesting thing for me to research when i get home, i'll do it. I'm sure there's some potential evidence that could be examined more closely.

No town team can ever be over-prepared.

#3019

Maybe i'll do a Bass/G-Man interaction analysis to ensure i'm comfortable labeling them team mates.

#3020

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:If you guys can think up an interesting thing for me to research when i get home, i'll do it. I'm sure there's some potential evidence that could be examined more closely.

No town team can ever be over-prepared.

I do think there is a danger that overthinking leads to paranoia. But then, that's because I am prone to paranoia.

If I had one thing I'd be interested in your perspective on, it's 'Are TinyBubbles posts consistent with her having a detective role'.

#3021

I'm on the case.

#3022

Turnip Head wrote:I'm in the same boat Golden.

#3023

#3024

fingersplints wrote:

#3025

splints, are you trying to get Bass's attention (one thumb up) or call him suspicious (two thumbs up)?

#3026

G-Man, are we doing a sing-off? we can do straight up vocaroo recordings, or make videos again.

#3027

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man, are we doing a sing-off? we can do straight up vocaroo recordings, or make videos again.

#3028

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:splints, are you trying to get Bass's attention (one thumb up) or call him suspicious (two thumbs up)?

#3029

i have a big analysis post prepared for TinyBubbles regarding theories about her role. but i won't post it until something is cleared up with the hosts.

long story short: i don't see compelling evidence.

#3030

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:i have a big analysis post prepared for TinyBubbles regarding theories about her role. but i won't post it until something is cleared up with the hosts.

long story short: i don't see compelling evidence.

Fwiw I don't think Bubbles had a discovery role, but I think it's possible the baddies thought she did. Looking forward to your analysis in any case.

#3031

Turnip Head wrote:Fwiw I don't think Bubbles had a discovery role, but I think it's possible the baddies thought she did.

Good. That's precisely how I read it. And now there really isn't any chance I'll change my vote, I'm very comfortable with a bass vote.

#3032

long story less short: if the mafia did their homework, i'm not sure they'd have made that assumption. for them to think Bubbles had that sort of role would require that none of the mafia actually bothered to check her posts more thoroughly.

#3033

caveat: Bubbles was a unique kill choice compared with the other three (MM, Sloonei, MP). so the motive may have been different, and a theory like the one being discussed now is one possibility.

#3034

Well I'm waiting for Jay's full analysis before making the final decision, but for now I want to vote Bass. I want to see what's below the tinfoil hat. Regardless of whether she was really a cop, or just cophunted by mafia.

#3035

Golden recommended i look into TinyBubbles and see if i can find any evidence that she may have had an investigative role.

TinyBubbles wrote:OK good plenty of time as for who to vote for I am honesty reluctant to call out anyone, because I would have to go through the posts in more detail, but based on the fact that golden was innocent and voted him out, bass_the_clever is on my radar. Which simultaneously makes everyone else who voted him on my good guy vibes list.

Bass seems to be a highly relevant player to this analysis. this is the first time Bubbles mentioned him, suggesting he was "on her radar" on Night 1.

TinyBubbles wrote:I know its not much of a theory lol. But in the last game golden eyed the main bad guy practically from the beginning, so I'm inclined to trust his instincts

I noticed you voted bass too, what were your reasons? (If you've already said them somewhere in the thread I'm sorry!)

also in Night 1, Bubbles explained her suspicion as being a vote of confidence for Golden 1.0 due to her trust of his mafia hunting skills. at this point it's obviously impossible for her to have any unique information yet.

TinyBubbles wrote:I'm getting mafia vibes from Epi too

Bubbles said this on Day 2, after Epi had already perished. my first thought was to say that this would make it less likely for her to be Adam Smith, because she'd be more attentive about the status of her own target. but at the same time if she was Adam Smith, she wouldn't have known that using Elohcin's role would kill Epi when she used it. so it might still be plausible that she genuinely didn't notice until later.

TinyBubbles wrote:I still feel Bass is guilty and so I might vote him.

Day 2 post. i don't think this is suggestive that Bubbles knew more than anyone else about Bass. it's consistent with the suspicions she asserted on Night 1 before any night actions could have resolved.

TinyBubbles wrote:Anyway, I'm just gonna go ahead and Vote Elohcin. I'm assuming you're not a lying dirty wolf in sheep's clothing misleading me; apart from Bass I don't really know who else to vote for and don't really want to spend more time on it. Elohcin if you're innocent i'm TRULY SORRY and to everyone else, please don't bandwagon. I don't want to be responsible for lynching an innocent. That's probably what got Golden killed.

she voted for Elohcin on Day 2, but only after conferring with me and decided to trust my stated suspicions. this is consistent with her behavior on Night 1, when she said she suspected Bass due to Golden having suspected Bass. i think this is further evidence that she wasn't Adam Smith, because if she was then she'd have known whose role she hijacked. and she wouldn't have needed my advice to motivate a vote for the person with that role.

TinyBubbles wrote:Hahhaa I love this! YEAHHHHH go civs! Boo Eloh! I was so afraid Eloh was innocent, it would've been a repeat of the Spacedaisy lynch from the last game. -does a little dance-

~REDACTED~ http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 55#p145255

Anyway, at this point I'm fairly certain JJJ is a civilian. And Bass is still on my radar. Also I read back some pages (it's like searching for a needle in a haystack) that Turnip Head was going to vote for me but actually didn't. Wtf? What was that about. Why even say that unless it was meant to trigger some debate about me. Not something a civilian would do IMO. Turnip head you are on my radar now

Night 2 post. i redacted some redundant content for the sake of brevity. the yellow highlighted portion makes me even more inclined to believe that Bubbles did not know Elohcin's role until she had flipped. this suggests she didn't alignment check Eloh or steal her role. one can again say this was a ploy on her part. i have my doubts.

the orange highlighted portion reasserts suspicion of Bass. this is logical carryover from what she had stated both on Night 1 and Day 2.

TinyBubbles wrote:Right I'm not convinced that Bass is innocent at this point, so he's getting my vote. and RIP dear Sloonei!

she voted for Bass really quickly on Day 3, which is probably the main reason some people are considering this scenario. it's possible that she knew something behind the scenes, but i have no confidence in making that assertion. her vote is consistent with her prior posts on two fronts -- it was hasty just like her Elohcin vote on Day 2 and it was consistent with the suspicion she stated about Bass in every prior phase save for Day 1.

TinyBubbles wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:That's two hasty votes, Bubbles. What don't you like anout Bass?
Hi, yeah sorry about the hastiness, as I said before I'm trying to not miss the vote due to RL

Anyway voted Bass because of what I said before and also because Sloonei suspected he was a baddie, and I trusted sloonei was a good guy and he was.. so his opinions are valid IMO. Also Im a little surprised about how people like JJJ and DDL feel Bass is Legit now, I'm not saying they are mafia, but I don't see what's so different about Bass that he is in the clear now. he did vote Golden. and also he voted pretty late for Elo which was suspicious, Elo was already going down at that point, his vote wouldn't have made a difference but it would earn him town cred.

i asked her about it, and her response is again consistent. she followed the suspicions asserted by Sloonei, placing trust in the read of someone she thought looked town. i am not seeing compelling evidence for an investigative role at all yet to be honest.

TinyBubbles wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Make sure you ask all your questions for me before I die tonight.
why'd you say you would vote for me and didn't?

the only other suspicion Bubbles offered before her demise was mild for Turnip because of his pretend vote.

~~~

i don't think there's much evidence to support the theory that Bubbles had an investigative role. the mafia still could have thought so (they must have killed her for some reason), but i think that would require that we assume they didn't do their homework.

i guess i could see Bass and/or G-Man not paying enough attention.

#3036

Solid analysis JJJ. In any case it makes me think Bubbles was killed because of her link to Bass, either to protect him or frame him. And since we know Roxy was a member of the team as well, and she was soft defending Bass (not like her hard defenses for Golden, Bubbles and splintsy), I have a hard time thinking the kill was meant to frame him.

#3037

Turnip Head wrote:Solid analysis JJJ. In any case it makes me think Bubbles was killed because of her link to Bass, either to protect him or frame him. And since we know Roxy was a member of the team as well, and she was soft defending Bass (not like her hard defenses for Golden, Bubbles and splintsy), I have a hard time thinking the kill was meant to frame him.

Soft defending and hard defending just makes it sound so dirty...

At the time of TB's death, when DDL raised the idea of her being Adam Smith, I quite liked the idea because I thought it could help us prove Bass was bad if true.

I don't usually analyse potential mafia motivation because wifom, and actually I didn't think TB's death stood out much from MM and sloonei in that those two hadn't stood out so much for me in the thread as obvious NK targets.

But I've decided to do it in this case because I think good points have been raised about how the mafia could have perceived TB. So, here are my potential motives in order from (what I perceive to be) most likely to least likely - and I know it really is all wifom, but please add or reorder if you think appropriate:

1) Mafia thought TB appeared as though she could be an info role, and they killed her for that reason. This implicates Bass.
2) Mafia thought TB would be an unlikely kill and so killed her for wifom. This, I think, would likely clear Bass (since the most likely wifom is "Bass is bad")
3) Mafia killed TB specifically to frame Bass.
4) Mafia killed TB for some other reason eg she was Mises or a role that otherwise helps civvies. I can only see this being true if they knew for certain.

Numbers two or three might feel more likely to me if everything else was equal. But combining it with the thread analysis is what has me putting the first one first.

#3038

sanmateo wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I went to do some reads on the suspects and something is bugging me:

acrosstheaether wrote:...but isn't solo in the context of teamwork as well? No mafia player is an island. You can't sever the individual from the wider societ- oh wait, this is getting into Radical Marxist Political Terroritory, no? G-Man obviously isn't a radical leftist, he's a neoliberal like the rest of us save two or three, everyone chill.

acrosstheaether wrote:It's funny how in this game my side is the direct opposite of my political ideology IRL.
This is a personal question so you don't have to answer if you don't to aether, but... what is your political ideology IRL? Left or right?

Because in one post you're implying you're a neoliberal, and in the other one you're saying your in-game alignment is opposite to your RL one. If both posts are true, then you're more or less admitting you're mafia.

I know this is probably kind of silly since mafia wouln't normally slip like that, but could you answer this?

Thanks, and again, sorry if the question is too personal.
idk exactly but i think irl she's somewhere in the far-left, that first post was Snark. she wouldnt have slipped like that at all lol

sanmateo is correct, my first post was referring to gameplay (townies are neolibs) im really anti-neoliberalism irl

#3039

Time's up let's do this

LEEROY JENKINS!!!!!

#3040

We must have done that so close to the same time, because when my poll came up it said "golden (9), Turnip Head (8)" instead of the other way around.

As for leeroy, don't you know he was nerfed?

#3041

Golden wrote:We must have done that so close to the same time, because when my poll came up it said "golden (9), Turnip Head (8)" instead of the other way around.

It's like that on my screen as well. Jinx! You owe me a Coke.

Golden wrote:As for leeroy, don't you know he was nerfed?

At least I have chicken.

#3042

Hang on how long until EoD from now? Are we close or are you just going to sleep? /australia

#3043

I am barely aware of when Americans go to sleep. Sorry.

#3044

acrosstheaether wrote:Hang on how long until EoD from now? Are we close or are you just going to sleep? /australia

We're still like 19 hours away from EoD. It's about to be 10pm here /LA

#3045

I'm awake, but I am of no assistance.

#3046

Most of the peeps on the east coast are tucked into bed already.

linki: True story.

#3047

Turnip Head wrote:
Golden wrote:We must have done that so close to the same time, because when my poll came up it said "golden (9), Turnip Head (8)" instead of the other way around.
It's like that on my screen as well. Jinx! You owe me a Coke.

It appears to be staying that way. That is remarkable timing.

Let it be known in future voting order analyses that TH and golden voted at exactly the same time.

Unfortunately, about that coke... I was only just in LA, you missed it. I doubt I'll be back that way till... 2017 at least!

@aether - you are an aussie?

Now I like you even more

where are you from?

#3048

Golden wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
Golden wrote:We must have done that so close to the same time, because when my poll came up it said "golden (9), Turnip Head (8)" instead of the other way around.
It's like that on my screen as well. Jinx! You owe me a Coke.
It appears to be staying that way. That is remarkable timing.

Let it be known in future voting order analyses that TH and golden voted at exactly the same time.

Unfortunately, about that coke... I was only just in LA, you missed it. I doubt I'll be back that way till... 2017 at least!

@aether - you are an aussie?

Now I like you even more where are you from?

Adelaide. There is a 95% chance you have no idea where it is.

#3049

acrosstheaether wrote:
Golden wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
Golden wrote:We must have done that so close to the same time, because when my poll came up it said "golden (9), Turnip Head (8)" instead of the other way around.
It's like that on my screen as well. Jinx! You owe me a Coke.
It appears to be staying that way. That is remarkable timing.

Let it be known in future voting order analyses that TH and golden voted at exactly the same time.

Unfortunately, about that coke... I was only just in LA, you missed it. I doubt I'll be back that way till... 2017 at least!

@aether - you are an aussie?

Now I like you even more where are you from?
Adelaide. There is a 95% chance you have no idea where it is.

My wife is from Newcastle.

Check out my location <------

#3050

Ahaha I didn't even notice :P

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

Who killed our talkative teddy??