Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#3201

Spoiler: show

#3202

Highlights:

acrosstheaether wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I think Dragon is bad news. He's leaving himself little outs that he can use later.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 76#p142976
Good point.

Her most productive post for most of Day 1. Not kidding.

acrosstheaether wrote:
Sloonei wrote:
acrosstheaether wrote:I kept forgetting my password so had to keep retrieving it lol but I got Chrome to remember it this time
Hello, have you been able to follow any of this stuff so far? What are your thoughts? What's your password?
No substantial thoughts yet... I kinda agree with JJJ on Epi but I disagree with him on DDL. Still don't feel good about them.

On the fence post about how she thinks two townies are mafia, without elaborating much on it (yes I'm acting like I'm confirmed town for this analysis, DWI).

acrosstheaether wrote:I don't understand why Golden is the only one with the votes, but oh well, it's day 1, where I'm usually no good. I'll probably be able to dig deeper once more information surfaces.

I also apologise for having been online earlier but not posting. I was confused about whether my amended role was still an error since I rolled the same role twice.

"I disagree with the Golden lynch but I won't interfere cuz I'm bad at this game lol"

Also posts a mechanical reason for her inactivity on day 1. It kind of excuses the previous posts. But the string of baddie-like posts continues:

acrosstheaether wrote:lmao how did we not lynch Epi today

Don't you think this post would've been more productive during, y'know, day 1? Epi did turn out to be town lately, but this seems more like aether's way of trying to remain consistent with her previous read while not taking responsibility for not having done anything to prevent Golden's lynch.

acrosstheaether wrote:Replace me please. No alignment reveal is too confusing.

Wants out. But then, during the same night, she votes Elo. No idea whether she voted Elo before or after this post, since me and everyone else were sleeping at the time (she lives in Australia and all). But asking to be replaced and voting at the same time was the nail in the coffin for me. So I voted aether on day 2.

Everybody called me out on that. They called it a cop out vote, since I was voting for a player who was going to be replaced. BWT and Roxy went specially bananas about it (and Roxy at some point tried to convince people that aether had been replaced by Vomps). But, as a host pointed out, she wouldn't be replaced unless she asked too. And later, unsusprinsingly, this happened:

acrosstheaether wrote:I don't want to be replaced anymore. Now that the SK is out of the way, no need to speculate about alignments of NKs

Heh. Also I just noticed how monumentaly hypocrite this post is because:

acrosstheaether wrote:Also if I were mafia JJJ would be long dead. I have known his ability for a very long time, and so has sanmateo. This almost makes me sure that the remaining mafia member is not someone from RYM.

No speculation on NKs? Unless it is to save your own life, right?

Moving on:

acrosstheaether wrote:I disagree about the notion that Elo's flip should be treated as a townie lynch though. Many people (including myself) would have been town, and read her behaviour as generally anti-town, rather than a mafia-tell in particular.

This post was weird because it went against an obvious notion everyone was agreeing on (mafia thought Elo was town). It one of those "too scummy to be true" posts. But it adds to the pile.

acrosstheaether wrote:I'm thinking, is there anyone in particular who was most adamantly pushing for Elo's lynch? Perhaps that person is Adam Smith.

At this point, I was doing my best to shut up about my own suspicions of early Elo voters being Adam Smith. Aether gave no fucks at all. That was an incredibly foolish move if she is town. Unsurprinsingly, early Elo voters died left and right in nights 3 and 4.

acrosstheaether wrote:Tbh Sloonei's death makes me feel better about DDL.

That post made no sense, and I doubt it ever will. How would his death make you feel better about me?

acrosstheaether wrote:G-Man... why'd you put fingersplints higher than DDL? If I were to do my rainbow right now, I'd prolly switch their positions from those inside your chart.

I get the impression that either fingersplints or Black Rock are mafia, judging by their interactions, and failing both of those, Turnip Head. My non-turnip head would probably implode if there is not one mafioso among those three.

That's when she suddenly started voicing suspicions on splints and Turnip, as well as BR. Not that it ammounted to anything, since she missed the vote deadline again (and BR was already under heavy fire at that point). BR then flipped mafia and she kept voicing her suspicions on Turnip/splints.

acrosstheaether wrote:If Bass_the_Clever is mafia, s/he is a clever mafia.

One of the most suspicious posts in the game. It's a mild defense of Bass, and it sets up the WIFOM she will do later once he dies.

acrosstheaether wrote:I have no strong feelings one way or another about Roxy atm

acrosstheaether wrote:FWIW, I'm increasingly leaning towards the case of Roxy being mafia. I would prefer Roxy to be the lynch candidate other than myself.

"So Roxy just told in the QT that she is leaving the game so btter jump the bandwagon before it's too late"

acrosstheaether wrote:In fact I'm tempted to go ahead and vote for myself. My flip is gonna give the rest of my fellow libertarians a heckuva lotta information.

Classic desperation post. From my experience townies usually don't make suicide threats like that (well I did it once, but I had an ability that made me survive the lynch). Roxy did this, and Bass did a similar defeatist post. It works because it can make townies have second thoughts about the lynch.

She did a few other posts of the same nature lately, and has been doing quite a few this phase. I won't bother to quote them.

acrosstheaether wrote:I have a tinfoil theory of MP07/splints being teammates tbh. Tinfoil though.

"I'm ready to jump on their respective bandwagons if the opportunity arises"

acrosstheaether wrote: Bass - the fact that he broke my tie with a known mafia makes me feel good. As I said, he'd be a clever mafia if he's mafia. Basically, in a scenario where DDL is bad and JJJ is good, then Bass would be 100% confirmed good to me.

Nobody ever understood this logic, and I doubt we ever will.

acrosstheaether wrote:Now that the mafia cannot kill at night, the only chance of them winning this is to manipulate the lynches. Should there be two baddies left, they'd be unlikely to bus from this point onwards, right?

At this point, me and a few other people thought mafia had lost their NK. Of course mafia knew that was not the case, but it would have been pretty interesting for them to lead town in that direction. That doesn't implicate aether, but shows a possible mafia tactic.

acrosstheaether wrote:I have a hard time envisioning Bass as mafia, but it isn't impossible. Between Bass and G-Man I'd have to say G-Man, but my view might change if even more solid points against Bass come up.

"I don't wanna be the one who defends scum so I'll agree with the crowd and suspect him. But I'd rather vote for the one I know is a townie"

The rest is a mix of fluff, more defeatist posts, and a shitload of WIFOM and night kill analysis which she said she'd never do. She is pretty much only defending herself at this point, so it's hard to take anything from that (I suppose that's the price of lynching every bad but one, they don't have to protect their partners anymore).

#3203

I have literally made a promise to myself never to modkill myself as scum/mafia or even claim to do so, btw. I don't want to dishonour my team in such a way.

Can I just put it here now that I do not have the ability to convince people to "definitely lynch this other specific person" when I'm town? Every bad vibe, negative casing and lynch vote I make while town is a shot in the dark. Civvies can never be 100% certain unless they're cops. So, tell me what else I should do if I'm town.

#3204

Enough is enough.

vote aether

Call that an early vote if you want. But the fact is that this vote is a few phases late. Aether should have died on day 2, she only didn't because we were too busy lynching every other bad in the game. Time to finish what I started long ago.

I'm reading her posts in this page and it all amounts to a buttload of wifom and suicide threats. If this is how you're gonna defend yourself, I won't bother anymore.

Just die.

#3205

I'm going to sleep now. Big day ahead.

I recommend town to look at others before I return, and not get stuck tunnel-visioning. It would benefit town, even if you do decide to lynch me.

#3206

I will vote aether. She is right about one thing though: it can't hurt to consider other options too. I've been lazy the last two phases (the case against aether looked that clear-cut), but i'll do my homework when i get home tonight.

#3207

I know when you guys say things like "just die" it's in the context of the game and not in an irl context at all, but I'm suicidally depressed irl and hear voices in my head say things like that often. Please don't feel bad about it, just don't do it again.

#3208

acrosstheaether wrote:I know when you guys say things like "just die" it's in the context of the game and not in an irl context at all, but I'm suicidally depressed irl and hear voices in my head say things like that often. Please don't feel bad about it, just don't do it again.

Really?

Wow, I'm really sorry about it, then. I was trying to be dramatic. I love to be dramatic in those games.

I promise I won't do it again.

#3209

I hope you don't take any of my posts personally, aether. I've been bashing you the whole game, but I have nothing against you outside of it. You seem like a pretty nice person. Sorry if I offended you at some other point.

#3210

you're still one of my favorites aether.

#3211

did aether tried to switch the lynch to me? i'm offended

*votes*

#3212

Did sanmateo just agree with me about a vote? Like, for real?

Oh my god I'm voting wrong ain't I.

#3213

sanmateo has been as mafia-like as anyone since about Day 2.

#3214

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:sanmateo has been as mafia-like as anyone since about Day 2.

yeah i've sucked this game

#3215

Nothing has convinced me to change my mind.

To me, when I wrap my head around it logically, Aether's defence reads "I look bad, therefore I'm not bad" which I don't find convincing.

And I'm really not going to change my mind, so I'm going to vote now.

#3216

Whoops, I accidentally clicked on myself instead of aether. Hosts can you please take that as a vote for aether.

That's what happens when I vote as soon as I wake up instead of having my morning caffeine first.

#3217

^ Sounds like a confession to me.

#3218

Those options aren't even near each other.

#3219

I know, lol. Brain fail. It's not even like I thought I was clicking on aether.

If I were you, I can understand why you might fear shenanigans, but I promise it isn't any, it really is just me in early morning. I'm assuming the hosts will be ok reading it as a vote for aether since I did make my intentions very clear in the thread.

#3220

I've actually made the same mistake before in games, but caught it before I hit submit. It's weird because it's not like you or I self vote a lot so it's funny what a tired mind does

#3221

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:sanmateo has been as mafia-like as anyone since about Day 2.

I'd say more then most even.

I'm really torn here. Aether seems so bad this almost feels too easy. I don't think her defenses are great, but they feel more like she is trying more now. Could be that she is the last baddie left, so has to now.

You seem like a very nice person aether but I will probably still vote you. I'm not sure all of what you are going through, but I'm around to talk if you ever need anyone. I was in a pretty bad place a few years back, and some of the friends I made here were able to help me out of it. Sometimes just having someone to talk to helps.

#3222

acrosstheaether wrote:I know when you guys say things like "just die" it's in the context of the game and not in an irl context at all, but I'm suicidally depressed irl and hear voices in my head say things like that often. Please don't feel bad about it, just don't do it again.

Aether, I also went through many years of this. I'm sorry to hear that this is what you are going through

I'll add to what splints said - there are a heap of really caring people here who can identify with this, and I hope you find some of them and discover that this community is a loving and supportive place.

You seem like a really lovely and talented person, and I hope you hang around here. I've already really enjoyed your presence down in the social section of our site.

#3223

Hosts, would it be possible to state publicly how you intend to handle Golden's vote? Thanks for any response.

#3224

My vote is placed. If time permits i'll examine contingency options tonight.

#3225

Voted for æther to avoid splitting the vote.

#3226

going to post a couple for/against points for each player aside from aether and myself (if i have time to get to everyone, not a guarantee). these are isolated points that come to mind for me, there are probably many more that could be made on both sides. so if you think something needs to be brought up beyond what i've said, or if you disagree with the conclusions i draw -- please say so. if it's not aether then we're going to need content to work with afterword.

#3227

Some reasons why Dragon D. Luffy is town:

~ DDL has been more willing than nearly everyone else to engage everyone else directly in the thread. he has definitely not been an evasive player, and he has deliberately invited a ton of attention upon himself all game long.

~

Spoiler: show

as i suggested in Night 5, i think this post reflects very well upon DDL. it reads like Bass knew a townie (or more accurately, a non-mafioso) was drawing a lot of unwarranted heat on Day 1. so he separated himself from that by standing up for DDL, setting himself up to look better in the event of a DDL mislynch.

~

Spoiler: show

as you can see, MP was very high on DDL as a town read late in his game life. this was consistently expressed, and confirmed with apparent confidence each time he was pressed to explain why. so if DDL is mafia, he would have a very good reason to pocket MP as long as possible -- not night kill him.

Some reasons why Dragon D. Luffy is mafia:

~

Spoiler: show

the chief objective of the sole-remaining mafioso right now has to be to line up mislynches to make it a deciding LyLo phase. and in posts like these, DDL has been lining up candidates (who must be town if he is not) in a literal priority-based order.

#3228

Vompatti wrote:Voted for æther to avoid splitting the vote.

Me too!

#3229

I voted for the dead option because guns don't kill people, dead economists named Smith do.

#3230

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Some reasons why Dragon D. Luffy is mafia:

~
Spoiler: show
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:At this point though, I think it's almost mandatory that we don't let neither aether NOR G-Man live to the end of the game. Scratch what I said about Vomps, those two should be the priority targets. There's just way too much evidence on both of them to ignore.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Personally I'm all for lynching G-Man on day 6, then Vomps on day 7, and then if that fails I'll see who's left in lylo.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Actually I think aether's alignment is what says a lot about Bass. The opposite... not so much.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Problem is the timing though. Let's say we lynch aether, Bass and G-Man. Those are my suspects, not everybody's, but let's assume they are.

That gives us 4 people left after mafia kills. Maybe less if they use items. Welcome to lylo w/ Vomps.

So if we want to get rid of Vomps while also avoiding him on end game, we need to get rid of him by day 7, at most.
the chief objective of the sole-remaining mafioso right now has to be to line up mislynches to make it a deciding LyLo phase. and in posts like these, DDL has been lining up candidates (who must be town if he is not) in a literal priority-based order.

I suppose you have a point here.

What I can say is, while I do suppost discussing lynches as much as possible and considering changing targets if needed, I'm also a strong believer of Occam's Razor, and of not allowing players with a mountain of evidence against them to live. I've learned the hard way that when someone looks like an obvious mafioso, it is probably a mafioso and I should stop tinfoiling.

Vomps is a special case, though. I'm just afraid of facing him on lylo. I think he could distort the whole thing, by being that player who is impossible to read confidently. I don't think we should lynch him before more suspicious ones, though.

#3231

Some reasons why fingersplints is town:

~

Spoiler: show

Roxy left a lot of breadcrumbs like these that i think make splints look good. Roxy was fiercely defensive of at least two other confirmed townies (Golden 1.0 and Bubbles) when they were under decent or worse pressure. splints fits that profile perfectly.

~

Spoiler: show

splints placed a highly important vote for Bass by my measure. when she did so there was still plenty of potential for a G-Man lynch instead, but she ensured the momentum would roll over Bass instead. as i said earlier -- it was her vote that most drove my own.

Some reasons why fingersplints is mafia:

~ she spent the first half of the game tunneling Black Rock as hard as anyone has been tunneled in this game short of the Day 1 targets of Epignosis. then when people started to agree with that read on Day 3 and the lynch was a real possibility, splints voted for aether instead. and it was the closest tally of the game save for Day 1 (when splints neither voted for Bass the mafia nor Golden the townie).

~ she was somewhat protective of Roxy until the lynch became a bit clearer-cut, more perhaps than anyone still alive except Vompatti (if i am remembering his nonsense correctly).

#3232

Some reasons why G-Man is town:

~ he was pretty good about reading Black Rock and Roxy as mafia or near-mafia when it counted.

Some reasons why G-Man is mafia:

~ well there's that whole thing where he pretended to be cursed for like four game cycles. he can claim he didn't pretend because he "never said he was cursed", but that's bullcrap. he pretended to be cursed.

~ on Day 1 his vote for Golden was highly important in deciding the result, which prevented a lynch of confirmed mafia Bass

~ Roxy was a bit protective of him within the context of his false curse, providing reasons why it could be a believable role stipulation (this can also be viewed as a town-oriented point actually)

#3233

i know it feels like there's nothing left to say. but i think it's important that we try to keep this game alive instead of merely wait for the lynch result and either celebrate or groan in unison. so many of us have put a ton of effort into this game, but it the fruits of that labor may not be realized if we don't maintain some degree of intensity.

everyone should provide not just their top backup suspects, but also a full rank of the remaining players. i know it might not be everyone's style, but there aren't many people left right now. so it's a small request, and it might provide very insightful content for later should it be needed.

#3234

I'm not gonna do giant posts like you do, but I suppose I can make a rainbow list tomorrow.

#3235

I can make a rainbow post in any color you like.

As long as it's red.

#3236

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I'm not gonna do giant posts like you do

just to be clear to everyone -- i'm not asking you to make any huge posts like mine. i know i am a lunatic and i don't expect everyone else to behave like me. :P

#3237

Epignosis wrote:any color you like.

Off Topic

#3238

I agree Jimmy, it is important that we keep up intensity, although I don't intend to do too much thinking about even the effort you are putting in now unless aether comes back town. I do appreciate that you do it, though.

Since you requested it, here is my read from worst to best as of now, with colours in pretty rainbows.

Aether
Vompatti
G-Man
DDL
sanmateo
splints
JJ
golden

#3239

Oops, I missed making JJ blue.

#3240

Spoiler: show

#3241

i love that G-Man actually used green text in his meme

#3242

at the moment i'm watching the NBA Finals, so any other reads i provide will have to come during halftime or after the game. but i'll be checking in the thread often for any real-time communication.

#3243

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:at the moment i'm watching the NBA Finals, so any other reads i provide will have to come during halftime or after the game. but i'll be checking in the thread often for any real-time communication.

Go the Warriors

#3244

GO CAVS *votes Golden*

#3245

Some reasons why birdwithteeth11/Golden is town:

~ Golden maintained his stance against Bass throughout Day 5 despite being given multiple avenues to abandon it (some of which came from my analyses, which i know Golden has paid attention to). he was also important enough to the Roxy lynch to warrant a couple townie points.

~ Golden has been heavily involved with every discussion we've fielded in this thread since he took over BWT, and he has managed to do so without making any posts which i would characterize as potentially manipulative. he's been fair in his assessments and open enough to the potential that he's wrong without waffling.

Some reasons why birdwithteeth11/Golden is mafia:

~

Spoiler: show

Roxy was very softly suspicious of BWT in a way that i think is compatible with bussing. there was very little chance of BWT being lynched in any phase during his time in the game, so if they're team mates then this is always safe bussing by Roxy.

~ he was heavily involved with the Roxy and Bass lynches, but one could assert that his involvement was more to facilitate discussion of them than to aggressively pursue their lynches. temporally speaking, he followed Turnip in those scenarios. and Turnip's lead had been the most likely to generate significant town support among anyone in this game when he was alive.

#3246

#3247

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Talk to me G-Man. Convince me Bass is the way to go today. Convince me aether is.

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

#3248

Reasons why sanmateo is town:

~ i think he has mostly played to his town meta (acknowledging that he is still new enough to mafia to not have played as any other alignment often enough to have any established counter-meta).

Honestly that's it.

Reasons why sanmateo is mafia:

~ He has taken part in exactly zero mafia lynches. when BR was lynched, he missed the vote. when Roxy was lynched, he voted for aether. when Bass was lynched, he voted for G-Man.

~ He was vocally defensive of both Bass and Roxy when they were threatened with lynches, and later chalked it up to simply being wrong all game long. in one of my earliest mafia-aligned games, i employed that exact strategy -- intentionally be wrong in every read and see how long i can get away with it

~ I think his interactions with all three of the dead mafia players reflect poorly on him. My exact conclusions were: w/r/t BR, he looked barely okay (which was frankly too generous). w/r/t Roxy, he looked worse. w/r/t Bass, he looked so bad it's extreme WIFOM.

#3249

Reasons why Vompatti is town:

~ Probability?

Reasons why Vompatti is mafia:

~ he has taken part in exactly zero mafia lynches. when BR was lynched, he was the only vote for thellama73 (

). when Roxy was lynched, he dumped a useless vote on TinyBubbles. when Bass was lynched, his vote fell on G-Man.

~ his method for playing is perfectly suited to a player who does not care about winning as town and does care about winning as mafia. the entire benefit, besides the pleasure of just screwing off, is to establish an extremely easy meta within which a mafia role can be played safely.

#3250

how's this for a rainbow?

Golden
Dragon D. Luffy
fingersplints
Vompatti
G-Man
sanmateo
acrosstheaether

Who killed our talkative teddy??