Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

G-Man:

i have to make a difficult request of you. you won't like it, and i can understand. you've set yourself to a specific task and you want to see it through to the finish. but if you do that, you're going to increase the likelihood of your own lynch by default -- and if you're town, that can be a disaster. any town lynch can be a disaster in this situation. so if you recognize the immense effort that nearly all of the remaining players have put into this game (including yourself, truly), then you'll also recognize that we want to win the game. or at least give ourselves the best chance we can.

and your picture/meme/emoticon style is a detriment to that objective. if you'd be better able to convey your thoughts in text, then you should return to posting in text. your experiment has yielded so much data already, and you've lived through six lynches. you can log the results in your handy scientist notebook, recall them fondly at some future time, and it will have been a successful endeavor.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i was doing Bass interactive analysis for DDL, but i've changed my mind. i am going to change my approach, because i think that method has really run its course in this game. i need to adapt. instead, i am going to ISO everyone and view them through one intentionally slanted lens: Player X is mafia. so why did he or she post the things he/she posted?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

JJ, I think a proper bass/not-aether analysis for the rest of us would be a good idea now.

Yes. The only analysis Jay did about Bass was the one about aether.

If you don't have time to do them all, Jay, we could split the task. I wouldn't mind doing some of them, I just don't want to analyse every single player.

Right now, we need:

- Bass/DDL
- Bass/splints
- Bass/G-Man
- Bass/Golden
- Bass/Jay
- Bass/sanmateo
- Bass/Vomps

That's a total of 8, which is 2-3 per person if me, Jay and Golden all do it. Or 2 per person if we get another one. What do you guys think?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

i was doing Bass interactive analysis for DDL, but i've changed my mind. i am going to change my approach, because i think that method has really run its course in this game. i need to adapt. instead, i am going to ISO everyone and view them through one intentionally slanted lens: Player X is mafia. so why did he or she post the things he/she posted?

I dunno, I still see some merit on the method, it's just that having you do all of it is kinf of unfair and will probably end with you not having time for it again.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

that's a good call, DDL. if you deal with the Bass analyses (or some of them), then i can shift my focus to this new method. and if anyone else can give DDL a hand that'd be great.

after all, if i do every one of them myself then it's an inherent disadvantage. every time i am incorrect, town suffers for it. we need different voices in those posts.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also I'm pretty stupid. It's a total of 7 not 8 <facepalm>

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also I thought I'd made this post but apparently I didn't:

RIP aether, and sorry if I was a jerk to you a few times in this game. I hope I see you in mafia games again some time.

Let's make it right this time.

[Golden]

I'm happy to do a couple, provided everyone understand they won't be right now. But don't give me DDL - because I really want to see someone else's (so I guess JJ's) read on those connections.

JJ - what if you do DDL (in that method) - and then go ahead with the other thing you are doing

DDL - you do, say, me, G-Man and splints

I do JJ, vomps, and sanmateo

Does that sounds like a fair division of labour? I don't want to commit to too much given the sermon

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Sounds good to me. JJJ and Vomps average to two players, and the rest has roughly the same post number. So I think it's fair.

Will do them tomorrow morning, probably.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

that's fine, Golden. wish i hadn't deleted the start of my DDL/Bass analysis. :P

(really, it's groovy. it won't be hard to get it back. time is my only enemy now)

[Golden]

I do think they really have value, JJJ. Sorry for putting you back!

[sanmateo]

Ok. Everyone post their favourite Eurovision entries for this year.

israel and serbia

also, bah.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Ok. Everyone post their favourite Eurovision entries for this year.

israel and serbia

also, bah.

hey sanmateo i re-read your posts and i think you're town again. or more likely town. it's alright if you've not had your best game, it happens to everyone. i haven't been that great in this game either to be honest. but i know you're a good townie when you want to be and i think you can be a big asset in this late game scenario if you are. keep the effort up muh man

[sanmateo]

why did you cange your mind tho?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

why did you cange your mind tho?

because it might help motivate you to get back into sanmateo mode.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Interactions: Bass and Dragon D. Luffy

Spoiler: show

I really don't understand why so many people are throwing around DDL name. I could understand if people have played a game with him before and know his tells but this is his first game here and I have no read on him.
MM out of syndicate regulas who are you getting bad vibes from?
I also agree with splints MP is acting different to the new players and might be something to keep an eye on.

i've referenced this post repeatedly now, always asserting that it reflects positively upon DDL. to this point, nobody has refuted that perspective. DDL, what do you think about this post and my read on it?

Do I ever have any big opinions this early? I have some slight pings. Like I said earlier I don't get why DDL was catching so much heat. Epi seems to be having fun so to me that usually means civ Epi. I was wondering about Dom he has been super quiet, does he even know the game has started?

this post is essentially the same. if you perceived the prior post to be a good thing for DDL, then this post must be good too. if you perceived the prior post to be bad for DDL, then this post must be bad too.

Spoiler: show

Alright, before the night phase ends, imma drop those just in case I die.

I wrote a read on Bass right before the phase end. My view barely changed, so I'm not doing it again (screw rainbow lists). His vote was as meaningless as it could be so that's no data to add. Here is it for those who didn't see it.

bass: another player who talked a lot about MP (if MP is town, then I swear there must be a fabricated wagon on him because a lot of people are ONLY talking about him). Seems to be going back and forth between suspecting MP, then saying he isn't suspecting anyone. Seems afraid to show commitment. That's pretty scummy imo.

The main point he is likely mafia and town should interrogate the fuck out of him this day. NEXT.

My other suspect is Elo.

She is easily the fluffiest player in the game. That itself isn't a bad thing. The bad thing is that she gives me the impression that she uses the fluff to avoid saying something useful. Like, every time she starts making a read on someone, a wall of fluff comes right after and we end up with a post that has one barely useful line and 20 lines of fluff. A good example is this post:

Can you please show me where I said I was suspected MP? I said I wanted to keep an eye on him because I felt like he was acting different this game. The I gave a short list of what I thought.

Can you please show me where I said I was suspected MP? I said I wanted to keep an eye on him because I felt like he was acting different this game. The I gave a short list of what I thought.

Saying you want to keep an eye on someone is pretty much the same thing as suspecting them. You're not directly accusing them of being mafia, but you think there's something worth watching out for.

But you never pursued it, or anything for that matter. You just stayed neutral until you were in danger of getting lynched and you had to put a self defense vote.

Is that how you always play? I'm saying this because I remember someone mentioning you always play like this.

Why would I pursue someone I'm just keeping an eye on. The way I play is with my gut.

on Day 1 DDL voiced some suspicion of Bass for his non-committal treatment of MP. Bass's responses were in themselves questions, primarily seeking post-evidence of DDL's accusations. it isn't super hard to envision a universe in which this argument represents mafia team mates distancing themselves from one another -- while also providing a means for continued in-thread involvement. DDL's eventual vote fell on Golden instead of Bass, so i'll look into that later in this post. there might be something there.

I really don't get tinybubbles or acrosstheaether. DDL seems to be falling back a little and I would like to know why that is.

Bass tossed a little shade on DDL in this minor Day 2 post. there's really no follow-up on it though, so it can be called a very soft prod.

Spoiler: show

nope. shrinking it.

Bass called DDL a townie in the GTH reads. for comparison's sake... Bass called both Roxy and Black Rock townies in this exercise. the two mafia reads he provided of living were splints and BWT/Golden.

Spoiler: show

Yeah its been pretty dead in here. DDL why do you think Splints would be a better lynch?

When did I ever say I think that?

My Bad Sanmateo said it.

this is an interesting little nugget. mafia players are always inherently more conscious of what their team mates post, and i think this mistake is less likely to happen if DDL is mafia. it's a small point, but it has my noodle moving. i have my doubts that this was an intentional maneuver, because i doubt Bass would have been conscious of the opportunity inherent to such a ploy. it may also say something about splints... to be continued.

Spoiler: show

Ok so I want to start by saying I can understand why my vote could look bad to the new players but for everyone that has played with me before they should know I always vote late.
Also DDL I have a feeling no matter where I put my vote yesterday you would have said something about it.
Now if you have any questions please just ask.

weird post in which Bass tells the new players that he understands their concerns about his vote... before softly complaining about new-player-DDL's concern about his vote. this probably says more about Bass than DDL, which doesn't help anymore at this point.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 55#p143155

DDL provided a big list of reads and explanations on Day 1, but he left Bass and 5 others out. he asserted that they'd not made any significant posts to that point and couldn't be read.

While Elo and Bass feel more like players who are not commiting to anything and are just jumping on bandwagons. They are more like textbook baddies, while Epi is just weird.

this is a more assertive statement of suspicion of Bass (still on Day 1). i like it, but i'd like it more if it had been accompanied by a Bass vote instead of a Golden vote.

Bass has gotten a little better in my eyes. His defenses seem legit. I guess I'm back to neutral on him.

on Day 2 DDL eased off the gas on Bass. i can't criticize him too thoroughly for this because i did the same thing -- but i also did it later in the game. my change of heart was a bit less expedient.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 59#p145259 -- too big to quote, even with a spoiler

in this large post DDL is assessing some of the later votes on Day 2 for Elohcin. one thing he does is question Sloonei for his vote, and in so doing suggests Sloonei may have been better advised in voting for Bass instead (Sloonei had voiced consistent suspicion of Bass). this is retroactive and coulda-shoulda-woulda really, and that's not an ideal look for DDL in this analysis.

Spoiler: show

acrossaether: mafia
Bass_The_Clever: town
birdwithteet: mafia
Black Rock: town
fingersplints: town
G-man: town
JJJ: town
MP: town
Roxy: mafia
sanmateo: town
Sloonei: mafia
TunyBubbles: town
Turnip: town
Vombat: town

DDL's belated GTH reads feature Bass as a town read. he called town on Black Rock too, but mafia on Roxy. take from that whatever you may. i do think it's probably more likely for mafia DDL to list only one of his team mates as mafia instead of two (as would be required for him to call Bass AND Roxy mafia). so that's decent, but also WIFOM.

Bass is one a lot of people have been wanting to lynch. Personally, I feel good about him and think his defenses in day 2 have looked legit. But I support more discussion on him: if town suspects him so heavily, you should push him and see if he slips. I'll only vote him myself if something new happens that makes him look more lile scum to me, though.

this one is a little waffly, but i actually kind of like it. DDL shined a bright spotlight on Bass here and invited other townies to put him to the test. so if they're both mafia here, i doubt Bass was pleased by his team mate asking the town to put pressure on him and "make him slip". of course this could have been pre-discussed between them, so again -- WIFOM.

Spoiler: show

TinyBubbles, let me ask you something:

How convinced are you that Bass is mafia? Do you think there is any chance you could change your mind about it later? And if for some reason you hadn't voted for him earlier like you did (such as not being online for example), do you think there's any chance you could vote for someone else after reading more of what people have to say?

Yes I know those are weird questions, but I'm trying to figure something out here.

this one is making me hmmmm... if DDL is mafia then this post shows him pointedly trying to get Bubbles to reveal too much about her role. the highlighted bit is key to that. it'd be a bold maneuver, but also one more likely to succeed when the person being questioned is very new to the game as is Bubbles. this might be the most suspicious DDL post i've encountered so far in this analysis.

Spoiler: show

DDL, if you had to rank your top 3 (or top 5) suspects right now, who would they be?

aether
birdwithteeth
BR

I'm not really reading anyone else as bad, though I have some mild suspicions on a few people (Roxy, splints, and Bass, I think).

interesting post. if DDL is mafia then he just cast some degree of suspicion upon all of his team mates in this post. but it should also be noted that only one of them is actually being called a "top suspect".

Spoiler: show

Looking at the list of people who voted BR:

JJJ and TH lead the discussion of BR in this phase.

MP was taking part in the discussion and expressing the possibility of lynching BR. He seemed to be on the fence, and was more willing to vote for aether for a while, but later he decided to vote BR.

G-Man did not take part in any discussion (obviously), but was the first to vote for BR. He did come at a point where BR getting voted as a very high possibility, though.

Now Bass showed up 30 minutes before the phase end, after being absent for the whole phase, and dropped a vote on BR with the following explanation:

Ok so I just caught up and wow. I have a good feeling about TH's case on BR. I feel like it took BR awhile tto come up with a list of who she thought was bad. I think BR gets reads on people quicker then that when civ. It could be because she was sick or it could be because she is bad. I leaning towards the latter.

I do not understand that explanation, considering it's a heavily meta-based one. It would be good if someone could confirm that to me (BR getting reads faster when civ). But the problem is, Bass jumped on a bandwagon at the very end of it with little discussion. That could be a serious case of bussing to me.

Sure, at that point the votes were tied 3-3, which makes bussing a bad tactical decision. But if aether is mafia, then he wouldn't have any choice anyway. Besides, TH and sanmateo were still probably going to vote for BR, so I'm not sure if Bass could have saved BR. And failing to do so would have made him a lock for the next lynch.

With that, I think my opinion on bass is back to neutral, or maybe even slighly mafia.

this one i do like. for Bass, the most obvious benefit of his Black Rock vote was to gain significant townie points. he broke a tie between his team mate and a now confirmed townie and helped eliminate BR. so if DDL is mafia, then he is completely working against that benefit in this post. he is selling Bass down the river at the first opportunity without being prompted by anyone else. he performed a quick vote analysis of his own volition and produced this conclusion. the only problem is the somewhat non-committal "neutral-to-slightly mafia" read, but i still like it.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 28#p146628

here DDL proposes his theory about TinyBubbles as Adam Smith. this is important because the entire purpose of this theory was to implicate Bass. this is hard aggression and would represent the most aggressive bussing seen so far in this game if DDL is mafia. which is to say i think it reflects positively on DDL. moreover this was on Day 4, when Roxy ended up lynched. so he was a day ahead of the game on this case, and he maintained it through Day 5 until Bass was dead.

Spoiler: show

Alright for some reason I feel like making a rainbow.

Likely Mafia

acrosstheaether
G-Man
Bass

in a Night 4 rainbow just after Roxy's death, DDL kept the foot on the gas against Bass. this persisted all the way through Day 5. i won't share everything from that phase because it's just too much, but i'll pull what i think is the most telling:

Spoiler: show

Vote Bass

Sorry Jay, your analysis is cool and makes sense, but early votes and night kills say a lot more to me than whatever Bubbles said in her post. Anything could be her trying to make her votes look more natural. Besides, while her early suspicions justify her votes, they also justify her wanting to investigate them in the first place.

i gave him a way out of the Bass lynch. he didn't bite, and only pressed harder by placing his vote. it was the 3rd for Bass and it provided a little early cushion over G-Man in the tally race.

~~~

overall i think DDL looks good in this analysis. there are some points i made to the contrary though, so it's still worth your examination if you care.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i'll wait to get DDL with the other approach. i need a break from his posts. :P

[thellama73]

It's a rap battle! Vote for your favorite rap between our two homies, Golden and JaggedJimmyJay.

Rap #1
Trouble with this gen, we don't have nothing to say
But you can't level that shit at my homie JJJ
We post like its a famine, like we livin' in hovels
JJ swoops in like the fucking Red Cross, he's written seven novels
We may be out on the street, but we on our feet, we got our beats
He think we need his aid packages to make us complete
Iso here, iso there, he brings a fucking iso to keep us fed
Seven words would do instead, give me my gun I'll shoot the iso dead
Probably works for the UN, sits in meetings all day
Getting paid, getting made, no way he getting laid
JJJ sitting in his office talking bout economic theory
On the street you got a clock, one day you're found floating in Lake Erie
The shit don't even get through, what I gotta make you a diorama?
Its taxed by corrupt rich fat white people like russti and llama
So JJ, when you next play and you think its aid time
Remember we see through your UN shit, and we also really know how to fucking rhyme
And don't tell me that I'm pushing the fucking metaphor too far
I don't even know what a metaphor is
But I'm pretty sure every word in this rap is literally true
JJ probably even watches Full House reruns
Out.


Rap #2
Well isn't this convenient?
All I have to do is show
Which certain special ingredient
Makes you the worst mafioso I know

Listen closely, I don't have all night
I could be winning the game right now
But I'm told you might have the right
To know why and to know how

Don't take this the wrong way Golden
But if I gotta vote "most terrible player"
It's your username I'm gonna embolden
Poor bastards on your team ain't got no prayer

So without further ado...
I'm gonna tell you why you suck.
Dude, you have only yourself to thank
SPOILER ALERT

Spoiler: show

It's cuz yo butt stank

[Golden]

So my name is G-Man now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[thellama73]

So my name is G-Man now?

I'm sure I have no idea what you mean.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Have I understood correctly if I assume everyone either produces or sells one (1) item each night?

Golden, you were wondering whether Vompatti might be conscious of/care about the guns and butter mechanics. See above.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If Vompatti is mafia, then why did he post the things that he posted?

Spoiler: show

This game is a perfect reflection of real life economics: the mafia are so loud that it's hopeless for us innocent civilians to voice our opinion.

are you suggesting that all of the top posters are scum?

Yes.

this was the first "stance" he took in the game, and there could be no easier stance to take. nobody can accuse Vomps of having provided no reads, because here they are. and they're completely unsubstantiated.

Spoiler: show

Perhaps just a bit.

You may embed only 7 quotes within each other.

do you have reasons for maybe thinking i'm a bit of a bad guy? or is it just a Thing?

I suspect everyone who rode the Eloh bandwagon and/or posts a lot.

why?

Because a) there's no reason to believe she's bad and b) flooding the thread only benefits those who intend to obscure the facts.

Vomps is well aware of his reputation and probably makes a deliberate effort to live up to it. and in posts like this, it's almost self-parody. Elohcin had already died and flipped Malthus when this post came to be, so it's obviously nonsense.

"Oh, it's just Vomps being Vomps they'll say. "

Who do you want to vote tomorrow Vomps?

If I'd have to pick I'd go for any one of the Eloh voters.

he has actually bothered to give real responses a few times in this game. if you comb around his post history, they're there. like buried treasure. in this one, he offers some kind of perspective -- about nine different people under one vague umbrella. another easy maneuver for a mafia player with his reputation.

Voted for Llama for science.

more self-parody. a vote for a moderator during the phase of the first lynch of a confirmed mafia player (and it was the closest vote of the game). it's nice to be allowed to do whatever you want as a mafioso.

Even if she won't be playing I'm not voting for a likely civ and I don't know why any other civ would either.

*votes G*

this post was about Roxy. his vote came when Roxy had drawn 3 votes and the early lead. early enough to turn it around and lynch the easy target instead (G-Man).

Voted for æther to avoid splitting the vote.

oh, so now he cares about whether vote gets split? during a critical mislynch which has given the last mafioso a new life in this game?

[G-Man]

G-Man:

i have to make a difficult request of you. you won't like it, and i can understand. you've set yourself to a specific task and you want to see it through to the finish. but if you do that, you're going to increase the likelihood of your own lynch by default -- and if you're town, that can be a disaster. any town lynch can be a disaster in this situation. so if you recognize the immense effort that nearly all of the remaining players have put into this game (including yourself, truly), then you'll also recognize that we want to win the game. or at least give ourselves the best chance we can.

and your picture/meme/emoticon style is a detriment to that objective. if you'd be better able to convey your thoughts in text, then you should return to posting in text. your experiment has yielded so much data already, and you've lived through six lynches. you can log the results in your handy scientist notebook, recall them fondly at some future time, and it will have been a successful endeavor.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

WAITING WITH BATED BREATH, G-MAN.

put your idea in motion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If sanmateo is mafia, then why did he post the things that he posted?

Spoiler: show

I'm curious too. This Day 0 has been fun, but it's hard to make reads on anyone when almost none of the posts are about the game. It's easier when everyone is accusing each other. I suppose that's what Day 1s are for.

Btw, I think it's very interesting how Jay started talking about making cases right after the second role was handed out. Which is interesting since the game was pretty much a blank state at that point. Though to be fair, he did say he had nothing at that point.

That could indicate an alignment change. If a player who has done nothing gets a new role and suddenly starts being proactive, it might mean a townie who became mafia, or vice-versa. Just a theory.

is there anything that a possible alignment change would say about jay right now tho? ftr i dont think he didnt become more proactive. he did say he was going to post some reads as day 0 ended but nothing happened afaict

for reference, here's the last time he was scum: https://rateyourmusic.com/board_message ... msg5765318 (jay, if you are scum this time please dont murk me on night 1. thx)

well here's a great way to immediately decrease everyone else's willingness to trust me. just show them a game in which i was scum and led all players in post count (while i was posting at a torrent rate in this game). mafia sanmateo knows i am town and would love to work against the tendency for people to read me as town most of the time.

Spoiler: show

this game has been somewhat frustrating for me, there is a bunch of players who havent posted anything game relevant and then there is some people who come in quote a post and say "yeah this is suspicious" without really explaining anything, like why???? im dumb as a fucking rock yall, help me out

so im just gonna go play video games with my little cousin and i'll come back read thru people's histories and drop a vote later on

i am not sure this Day 1 post really even accurately depicts what was happening on Day 1. so it shows mafia sanmateo making an effort to appear interested in a stronger collective effort -- without putting forth that effort himself.

Spoiler: show

i think ddl did a lot of scummy shit but at this point im most likely gonna vote for mp07 or th (unexplained vote + "im playing unlike me on purpose"). although mm did the unexplained vote too but they have been more active. i'm looking at golden and wondering if someone's bussing him but i'm not gonna vote for them based on that, i just dont think they're being particularly scummy and its really odd that they are the one player with votes on them rn

or i might just vote ddl out of sheer spite, who knows?

mafia sanmateo avoids the bad Day 1 wagon on Golden and instead goes for MP , who Epignosis had been hounding so hard. what an opportunity to lynch a townie either way (between MP and Golden), but stand for the misguided case with more content behind it -- all while protecting mafia mate Bass.

Spoiler: show

MP also made stuff up about my vote, told a lie. He said that I posted that I thought Golden was CIV! Then he later quote a post from me where I say Golden is my #2 suspect. He said that I never had an opinion on anyone but him, but then he quoted a post where I mention several names and what I think about them.

you are definitely skipping over my posts, dont really care if you mentioned other people (but did you? where?), but you said golden was civ and then you voted for him without explaining why at all, you basically never mentioned them again other than to say you were voting them

why do i keep saying things when you arent gonna reply to them or even read them

Anyway, I am leaning civ on Epi, Golden, MM, Splints, and Jimmy. I am not sure about San, Sloo, DDL, MP, and BR.

vote elohcin

sanmateo was the second person on Day 2 to vote for Elohcin. and of course, as a mafioso, he probably thought Eloh was town. and after seeing how Syndicateers responded to the abrupt and quick 2-vote wagon for Golden on Day 1 (a flood of votes at EOD ending in his lynch), he sensed an opportunity to repeat that occurrence at minimal cost to his own standing in the game.

between fingersplints and black rock i would probably vote for the latter, because splints said she'd had bstc with turnip head

but theyre not my main suspects

Black Rock was running into trouble on Day 3. mafia mate sanmateo took the opportunity to distance himself a little bit without actually doing anything to increase the pressure she was under.

Spoiler: show

gonna vote for black rock to ensure that there isnt a no lynch

why is the poll closed its not 5 pm yet -_________________-

here mafia sanmateo managed to protect his team mate without even having to vote for the townie in the counterwagon (aether). he waited just long enough to miss the tally and lament to the hosts about the alleged error.

Spoiler: show

i'm not gonna vote roxy, she should be replaced. it's ludicrous so many people are voting her. look at acrosstheaether sneaking in a vote right there again, there goes my vote

calling the scum team as fingersplints and g-man rn. i dont feel like voting for bass after being told to do so and when i think he's town

sanmateo has been as mafia-like as anyone since about Day 2.

yeah i've sucked this game

sanmateo was indignant about his refusals to vote for Roxy and Bass. somewhere along the way he decided that his preferred mafia strategy in this game is the classic "make the wrong reads, never bus, and look earnestly frustrated about it". i pulled this exact strategy in RYM Game #32, so i am especially familiar with it. it can be effective, but it also tends to lose steam late in games when people inevitably stop taking every post at face value.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

going to bed. i'll do the rest tomorrow.

Don't let my huge posts drown out the rap battle!

[G-Man]

WAITING WITH BATED BREATH, G-MAN.

put your idea in motion.

Spoiler: show

[acrosstheaether]

G G W P G G W P

[acrosstheaether]

Most importantly of all, I'm glad you got rid of Ricardo before me

[sanmateo]

i like the sugarhill vibe rap #1 has

[sanmateo]

why did you cange your mind tho?

because it might help motivate you to get back into sanmateo mode.

i bend the spoon with my mind

[sanmateo]

i think i figured out who has the game theory role

[acrosstheaether]

Getting paid, getting made, no way he getting laid

Kronz'd

[Golden]

Meaningful interactions, bass and vomps

that vomp guy is being really secretive

First interaction bass has with him is just to laugh at sanmateo mentioning his meta. Bass makes no attempt to either explain or defend Vomps (or attack him) for that meta either.

Bass calls vomps town in gun to head read, which is the same as his read on roxy and BR.

That's all bass ever says about vomps.

Vomps once says this.

Why Bass and æther?

I have no idea what it refers to - I've looked back a little bit and can't find any clear post that I can see it link to.

However, he did vote G-Man on both Roxy and Bass days.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

All in all, I would say that Vomps and Bass had literally no connections I could call 'meaningful' - the only things that could be used that you might say lead to information are Bass's gth read and Vomps voting record.

Other things I noticed, though, in doing this reread (unconnected to bass, as such): for all that his posts don't have a lot of content, vomps was very active on day two, but hasn't been on any other days. He also made posts on day two about how the mafia are probably the high posters - something which has proven not to be true at all, and which could be indicative of a position that was also taken by at least Bass and I think Roxy too.

I can't say that this exercise made me feel vomps is more likely to be bad than I did before. However, it did nothing to make me think he was less likely to be bad either. I'd still feel very comfortable with a vomps vote.

[Golden]

Oh, by the way, I really hope that everyone votes in the rap contest. Whether your vote be for me or for JJ, it's something I had so much fun doing and I'm sure JJ did too! So I hope you enjoy them.

I think I'll manage bass and sanmateo tonight, but my sermon is still in a bit of a dire state, so at this point I'm not expecting I'll get to JJ tonight - hopefully I'll be done with the sermon tonight and have time in the morning to do JJ before I head down to church.

[Golden]

Meaningful connections - bass and sanmateo

Bass first 'interaction' with sanmateo was the same quote as his first interaction with vomps!

that vomp guy is being really secretive

He also calls town on sanmateo in the gth exercise.

Yeah its been pretty dead in here. DDL why do you think Splints would be a better lynch?

When did I ever say I think that?

My Bad Sanmateo said it.

This is kind of interesting and something I could see being bad. I've seen people distance in this exact way before. Makes bass seem less aware of what sanmateo is up to, which makes them less likely to look like teammates.

And that is everything bass had to say about sanmateo. More or less nothing.

Sanmateo's first mention of bass is:

Might be my only chance to vote at work before the deadline.

Voting for Bass_the_Clever

why them over elohcin or epi?

Questioning why JJJ voted that way. He never responded to JJJ, his second post on bass is:

the timing of bwt's vote completely put me off considering voting for bass. even if they did express suspicion of bass before, it feels like something is happening imo. gonna vote for mp07 now for the reasons i explained before.

This could be intended to be a subtle move to get things away from a bass train without actually defending bass, instilling fear of a bandwagon.

And then, after the vote there is this, which could form the same function. So in and around the day one vote sanmateo doesn't come out looking so good.

Spoiler: show

How do people feel about the other two players (MP and Bass) who received multiple votes, in the wake of Golden's lynch?

i still think mp07 is suspicious (he's fucsia on my rainbow list), but elo is my main suspect rn

what about bass? and why elo?
I suppose it will also be important for players to try and provide some of their own analysis of how the individual votes played out, but that discussion will probably take place whether I bring it ul or not.
But hey, what do people make of all those votes? Anyone stand out in particular on that Golden wagon? It certainly feels at least a little dirty.

idk what to think about bass, their vote says nothing either since it was just a survival thing. people who stand out in the golden wagon are marsh (willfully unexplained vote) and elo.

Day 3 looks a bit better for sanmateo when he says this near the end of the BR lynch:

Im going to go ahead a vote BR I think she is bad news.

of the people who voted for br, bass is the only one who i think could be scum, only because he does the "yeah good points *votes*"

But he did take the opportunity to back out.

Im going to go ahead a vote BR I think she is bad news.

of the people who voted for br, bass is the only one who i think could be scum, only because he does the "yeah good points *votes*"

what significance do you think there is in the fact that Bass's vote broke a 3-3 tie with aether to give BR the lead?

ah i hadnt thought of that, i guess i wasnt considering it because of guns and butter stuff

Day 4, DDL commences a conversation about whether or not TB was Adam Smith and therefore Bass was bad. I actually didn't notice this at the time but while DDL and I were discussing the theory and asking host questions, right in the middle of it, sanmateo says:

Spoiler: show

it does make sense that she was adam smith, but as far as i can tell she couldnt have been certain bass was scum. the op says "Sloonei - Killed Night 2 by John Maynard Keynes" and "Epignosis - Killed Night 1 by Adam Smith". adam smith, whether it is or not tinybubbles's role, only hijacked the night 1 kill

Spoiler: show

it does make sense that she was adam smith, but as far as i can tell she couldnt have been certain bass was scum. the op says "Sloonei - Killed Night 2 by John Maynard Keynes" and "Epignosis - Killed Night 1 by Adam Smith". adam smith, whether it is or not tinybubbles's role, only hijacked the night 1 kill

He doesn't have to be Keynes. He could be Marx, who has the ability of destroying/redistributing people's items. Or even Robert Solow who can boost his items (though I'm not sure if Adam Smith would be allowed to control that one since it seems to be kind of a passive ability). If she got to use one of their abilities, she'd know they are mafia.

this train of thought does depend a lot on whether the mods would prompt her at the end of the night, i'm not ok with lynching bass based exclusively on this

Spoiler: show

it does make sense that she was adam smith, but as far as i can tell she couldnt have been certain bass was scum. the op says "Sloonei - Killed Night 2 by John Maynard Keynes" and "Epignosis - Killed Night 1 by Adam Smith". adam smith, whether it is or not tinybubbles's role, only hijacked the night 1 kill

He doesn't have to be Keynes. He could be Marx, who has the ability of destroying/redistributing people's items. Or even Robert Solow who can boost his items (though I'm not sure if Adam Smith would be allowed to control that one since it seems to be kind of a passive ability). If she got to use one of their abilities, she'd know they are mafia.

this train of thought does depend a lot on whether the mods would prompt her at the end of the night, i'm not ok with lynching bass based exclusively on this

Well if she targets a player, she will have to receive some kind of information. Because some of those abilities target one player, some target two, and some are passive abilities that target one. For example, if Adam Smith targetted Marx, he'd have to pick between using one of Marx's abilities, then choosing one or two players depending on what they picked. That'd give him some information.

But I agree with Golden when he says that'd make AS effectively a role cop, and that is weird in terms of game balance. I wanna see what other people think.

i assumed adam smith was a standard redirector, as in s/he chose a player and changes their target from what they'd chosen. we cant know exactly if the mods would inform AS if the action was succesufl. you do see how you are reaching, right? if you think we should lynch bass you should find things to be suspicious of in bass's posts tbh

Spoiler: show

Hosts, does Adam Smith target a player or an ability.

No.

and as u all can see the mods wont really clarify whats up with that, so..

Spoiler: show

Im going to go ahead a vote BR I think she is bad news.

of the people who voted for br, bass is the only one who i think could be scum, only because he does the "yeah good points *votes*"

what significance do you think there is in the fact that Bass's vote broke a 3-3 tie with aether to give BR the lead?

jay brought this up when i mentioned something similar, i think bass looks decent enough

Sanmateo actually may have prevented a bass lynch with this stuff. It's very heavy thread redirection - I'd be interested in a steer from those who know him better if he would do it. What's more, that last post actually looks as though he is happy someone else brought up the vote tie and he can use it as evidence.

There are some posts mentioning bass between then and day 5 but nothing that I think is of note, then on day 5 near the end of the lynch there is this series...

Spoiler: show

i'm not sold on bass being scum but i've read nothing since my last post + i have not been right once so far in this game so

i'll try to vote tomorrow but rn my spiritual vote is with g-man and id prefer it if u all didnt cast 12 thousand votes while i sleep

calling the scum team as fingersplints and g-man rn. i dont feel like voting for bass after being told to do so and when i think he's town

tfw you wake up and the lynch is decided already.

honestly it doesnt matter, the people who voted for bass are as likely to have extra votes as the people who voted for g-man. gonna vote g-man because i dont think bass is scum, if the lynch is tied we can just assume 2 of the 4 who voted g-man (assuming bass votes g-man) are scum

Which previously I would have said read town, and overall I think they paint him in a better light than some of the stuff above, but in context of having read the whole thing back could also be him feeling he had so much skin in his read on bass that he needed to see it through.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Before doing this sanmateo wasn't really on my radar for anything he had done so much as for simply not having any reason to think he was good, but after that reread I definitely think he looks more bad than I thought before, because it's not just 'bad reads', there are quite a few posts that I think can be read as subtle and overt attemps to redirect the thread.

In fact some of it is so overt I find myself thinking 'would sanmateo be so obvious' but then I hadn't seen it before, so I dunno if it really is as obvious as it looks to me now.

Definitely interested in other opinions especially as to sanmateo's meta, because this analysis has completely changed my thinking about my vote for tomorrow, sanmateo has now gone past Vomps and G-Man as my number one suspect.

[Golden]

Reading that day 4 stuff made me think the baddie team could have just panicked over the TB stuff - killed her, realised how it would make Bass look, and gone in to front foot it.

I really suggest everyone go back and read that little passage after TB died and put it all in context because I'd like informed opinions - I'm feeling excited about this but I don't want to be being stupid either.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

i've referenced this post repeatedly now, always asserting that it reflects positively upon DDL. to this point, nobody has refuted that perspective. DDL, what do you think about this post and my read on it?

Not anything that hasn't been pointed out by others a million times before. Which is, mafia player trying to throw a town read on someone to look good himself.

Spoiler: show

TinyBubbles, let me ask you something:

How convinced are you that Bass is mafia? Do you think there is any chance you could change your mind about it later? And if for some reason you hadn't voted for him earlier like you did (such as not being online for example), do you think there's any chance you could vote for someone else after reading more of what people have to say?

Yes I know those are weird questions, but I'm trying to figure something out here.

this one is making me hmmmm... if DDL is mafia then this post shows him pointedly trying to get Bubbles to reveal too much about her role. the highlighted bit is key to that. it'd be a bold maneuver, but also one more likely to succeed when the person being questioned is very new to the game as is Bubbles. this might be the most suspicious DDL post i've encountered so far in this analysis.

Pretty sure I explained this one when I posted the "bubbles = adam smith" theory. That was me trying to find a way for Bubbles to hint her role without actually breaking the rules of the game. I assumed a straight answer to my question (such as "I would never change my vote"), would give me the confirmation that she was tunneling and confirm my theory.

No, I don't know whether that would break the rules or not. I assume it wouldn't since I didn't actually request any night information.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's kind of what i meant, DDL. Mafia DDL would find that information even more valuable than town DDL. you didn't break any rules, but you were squeezing clues out of Bubbles.

[fingersplints]

Definitely interested in other opinions especially as to sanmateo's meta, because this analysis has completely changed my thinking about my vote for tomorrow, sanmateo has now gone past Vomps and G-Man as my number one suspect.

sanmateo is still my number one suspect. Baddies would be that obvious when they have nothing left to lose. (And like you said he wasn't THAT obvious IMO until TH called him out some. who was conveniently killed after )

Although I think the points on Vomps not mentioning bass are interesting.

[acrosstheaether]

It's popcorn time!

[Dragon D. Luffy]

That's kind of what i meant, DDL. Mafia DDL would find that information even more valuable than town DDL. you didn't break any rules, but you were squeezing clues out of Bubbles.

Alright then, I gotta give you that since you were doing the "mafia DDL" thing.

Just to explain better, I went for that information because I wanted further confirmation before risking a mislynch. Mislynching Bass would either force me to reveal the theory (and risk Bubbles's life), or put me in a position where everybody would suspect me for a good reason (thus risk my own life). I wanted confirmation before jumping on that.

Of course, once Bubbles died the whole "protecting her" thing went out of the window so I just put everything on the table.

[Marmot]

Rezz please.

[G-Man]

Spoiler: show

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's kind of what i meant, DDL. Mafia DDL would find that information even more valuable than town DDL. you didn't break any rules, but you were squeezing clues out of Bubbles.

Alright then, I gotta give you that since you were doing the "mafia DDL" thing.

Just to explain better, I went for that information because I wanted further confirmation before risking a mislynch. Mislynching Bass would either force me to reveal the theory (and risk Bubbles's life), or put me in a position where everybody would suspect me for a good reason (thus risk my own life). I wanted confirmation before jumping on that.

Of course, once Bubbles died the whole "protecting her" thing went out of the window so I just put everything on the table.

you didn't think your pursuit of "confirmation" was likely to be transparent enough to the mafia to render your protectiveness of Bubbles moot?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hey G-Man... what would you say if i had near-proof that you were definitely pretending to be cursed?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Interaction between Bass and fingersplints:

I also agree with splints MP is acting different to the new players and might be something to keep an eye on.

This is obviously an attempt of inducing a future MP lynch, as shown by Bass' later insistance on "keeping an eye on" MP. But pointing out that it was splints who came up with the idea might be a way of getting her to be suspected once MP flipped town. I think Bass would have avoided implicating splints like that if she was mafia.

Then it's fine I was just pointing out I agreed with splints that you were playing different then I have seen in the past. If I started to play different like if I started to posting a lot and I started pulling quotes would you not think something was up? Would you not want to watch me more closely?

He does it again. Seems to be really trying to show the idea was splints' not his.

Yeah its been pretty dead in here. DDL why do you think Splints would be a better lynch?

Weird post here, specially since he switched sanmateo for me. Looking at the content itself, this could mean anything, from trying to look useful, to distancing from splints, to actually getting people against her. Not much to say about this.

You cant edit posts. Sorry I didn't see it.
I'm reading MP as town because of the way he has had tunnel vison. I have seen him play this way a lot when he is civ.
I'm starting to think splints is town also. Her vote last lynch seemed off but the way she reacted made me feel a lot better about her.

He later seems to change his view on MP (that is, right before he kills MP himself in the night). Also starts to defend splints, though I can't remember he actually suspecting her in first place. Could be Bass just throwing some random ass reads to look productive, or could be an actual defense. Or maybe since the MP lynch was never gonna happen, he decided to switch strategy and stop trying to incriminate splints.

I'd love to hear Rox's opinion on Bass. She knows him well

Asks for one mafioso's opinion on another one. This could easily be staged, but Roxy never actually bothered to reply to the question. Otherwise, since it's day 1 and Roxy wasn't under suspicions, it could be an honest attempt to get opinions on someone was was being considered for a lynch.

linki @ Sloonei - Bass is Roxy's son, and that is why I asked her opinion of him earlier. She can read him very well, so if she says he is alright I believe it for now.

Believes on Roxy's opinion on Bass with no regards to her alignment. If she is mafia, this can be useful but also dangerous since it associates three mafiosos in the thread. She did say "for now", so at least we could say she isn't willing to believe Roxy forever.

Spoiler: show

Not anything particularly.

But since you're asking, is there anyone you're suspecting besides BR?

I voted for aether. I made you a list of most to least suspicious. A whole bunch in the middle I don't know if I could really justify why I ranked one higher then the other. just gut feels I guess

Black Rock
Acrosstheaether
birdwithteeth11
Turnip Head
MovingPictures07
TinyBubbles
sanmateo
Dragon D. Luffy
JaggedJimmyJay
G-Man
Bass_the_Clever
Vompatti
Roxy
fingersplints

I asked her to provide her suspects and she gave a full rank. That's nice. She seems to have a strong town read on Bass, which is not nice. And not explained either, though this is a full list not an individual read. Doesn't do good for her case but doesn't say much either.

JJJ - I read all your posts and I don't have much to say other then I agree with your conclusion Gman looks the worst in relation to Rox.

I am wondering a bit why she wasn't more defensive of bass? If she was defensive of other civvies in thread (like me) then why didn't she defend him more when I gave her plenty of opportunity to.

linki @ Sloonei - Bass is Roxy's son, and that is why I asked her opinion of him earlier. She can read him very well, so if she says he is alright I believe it for now.

So right now Gman and aether seem most suspicious, but I am still wary of Golden 2.0 (bwt) and bass.

The use of the word "still" is weird here. When did she become wary of Bass? It's been a while since the last quote though, and both Roxy/BR flipped mafia along the way, so there're plenty of reasons for splints to suspect Bass now. It's just that the wording bugs me.

Spoiler: show

And so comes day 5 and splints jumps on the Bass bandwagon, not explaining why because John Nash didn't allow her to. Her vote was very important for the lynch to happen, since it was such a close lynch and splints's vote was the last one. Her post limitation forced her to jump on a target without being able to do much more, and she jumped on Bass with no hesitation even though G-Man and aether were possible targets.

Overall, I think splints looks pretty good in association to Bass. There are a few nitpicks here and there, but mostly it looks to me like Bass tried to actively make her look bad, and while splints' own process of suspecting Bass didn't feel very organic, it did help get him to die in the end.

[G-Man]

Hey G-Man... what would you say if i had near-proof that you were definitely pretending to be cursed?

Spoiler: show

[Dragon D. Luffy]

That's kind of what i meant, DDL. Mafia DDL would find that information even more valuable than town DDL. you didn't break any rules, but you were squeezing clues out of Bubbles.

Alright then, I gotta give you that since you were doing the "mafia DDL" thing.

Just to explain better, I went for that information because I wanted further confirmation before risking a mislynch. Mislynching Bass would either force me to reveal the theory (and risk Bubbles's life), or put me in a position where everybody would suspect me for a good reason (thus risk my own life). I wanted confirmation before jumping on that.

Of course, once Bubbles died the whole "protecting her" thing went out of the window so I just put everything on the table.

you didn't think your pursuit of "confirmation" was likely to be transparent enough to the mafia to render your protectiveness of Bubbles moot?

Yes I did. I knew it was a risky gambit. But at this point I had the opinion that mafia was very likely to have figured out she was a cop (specially with aether giving it away early), and so Bubbles didn't have a long life expectation. I was even susprised they killed Sloonei in N2 instead of one of the early Elo voters. So I decided to accept the risk.

I wasn't gonna completely give it away though, on the off chance mafia didn't figure it out. Basically, I was trying to find a careful balance between the two things. I reckon I may have failed though, since she died the following night.