Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#3401

G-Man wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hey G-Man... what would you say if i had near-proof that you were definitely pretending to be cursed?

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote:

Then what was this post? There is a clear implication of "I have to continue posting more pictures, this sucks, whyyyyyyyyy??????????????????"

#3402

thanks for sharing the workload DDL and Golden. i've read your analyses and will comment further when i complete my own.

#3403

DDL I was still suspicious of golden/bwt, and suspicious of bass.

it probably should have been clearer

Also to clarify about the challenge, I could have posted words if I wanted, but then I would have lost to aether who at the time I thought was a baddie. I actually find posting a lot of pictures to be more time consuming and frustrating then posting words (which is why I can't understand why GMan is choosing to do so)
I could have said more but Bass was so obviously bad and others said it all for me. Instead I spent the time starting to look for bass connections (the pictures were D-fence to show who I thought potential teammates could be - with aether being out that brings me back to sanmateo)

There isn't much I can defend with about my defense of Rox. I have historically been pretty good at reading her (the last game we played together I called her as bad from her first post) and I really thought she was playing her civvie game. In hindsight she was just buddying up to me some. It was a good strategy for her tbh

#3404

splints, what exactly was the competition between you and aether?

#3405

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
G-Man wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hey G-Man... what would you say if i had near-proof that you were definitely pretending to be cursed?

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote:

Then what was this post? There is a clear implication of "I have to continue posting more pictures, this sucks, whyyyyyyyyy??????????????????"

G-Man, your silence is deafening.

#3406

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
G-Man wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hey G-Man... what would you say if i had near-proof that you were definitely pretending to be cursed?

Spoiler: show

G-Man wrote:

Then what was this post? There is a clear implication of "I have to continue posting more pictures, this sucks, whyyyyyyyyy??????????????????"

Spoiler: show

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man, your silence is deafening.

Spoiler: show

#3407

G-Man, what made you reveal your ruse when you did (after MP's dogpee episode)?

#3408

If birdwithteeth11/Golden are mafia, then why did they post the things that they posted?

Spoiler: show

one thing i said very early in this game was that the high-rate of posting by the new players would pose a distinct challenge for the mafia in this game. i was challenged on that at the time, but frankly i think it has shown to be accurate (Black Rock, Roxy, and Bass all struggled to maintain their positions in this game and ended up scrutinized for lagging behind). BWT represents another very valid example of this, and he is clearly conscious of the problem. so he is dropping reasons for an inactive start (which may be true, but that doesn't exonerate him), and offering only vague comments about the game at hand. he seconds Epi's suspicions of DDL without expanding with his own reasons.

Spoiler: show

the bit about Golden in the middle looks quite like Roxy's Day 1 defense of Golden. and if one of them was validly called suspicious for that maneuver, then the other should be as well. note that he also asserts some suspicion of Bass in the last bullet. despite my efforts to lynch him on Day 1, it never felt likely to actually happen (even when he took on a few votes). if the mafia felt the same way, then this represented a great opportunity to distance themselves from him.

Spoiler: show

BWT actually placed the vote for Bass too (2nd of 5). the distancing is bold, but it set the precedent for Bass's BR vote later. that's the mafia way in this game apparently.

Spoiler: show

exaggerated frustration at the early votes (and fake vote re: Turnip) on Day 2. considering these votes were either for a rogue (Elohcin) or a townie (Bubbles), mafia BWT was throwing pre-emptive shade on everyone who'd look bad in the event of an eventual non-mafia flip for either of them.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:is it typical of Roxy to have so few posts compared with the rest of the players?
Meh. I'd give her a little more time. She'll come out of her shell eventually. And gun blazing most likely.

soft defense of a mafia mate who to that point had not drawn any criticism. keeping her in the shadows must have seemed like a high priority, so we don't want loudmouths like JJJ bringing her up.

Spoiler: show

this is a comfortable method of distancing further without actually having to do anything. i believe that he missed the vote accidentally, but when a mafia does that what better thing to say that "i was going to vote for the guy who will eventually flip mafia!"

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Linki 2: Neutral. If I can't do that, then town.

BWT's read of MP at the start of the GTH exercise. it definitely is easier to stick people in the neutral pile isn't it? that's the point.

Golden wrote:JJ - I hate to be the bludger that suggests you do all the work, but I think a BR/Epi comparison could also be useful to help us figure if we have two or three baddies left alive.

I'll just send JJJ off to complete some miserable busy work. i know he won't be able to resist. and it'll only be a distraction, he can't learn anything valuable about me or my team through an Epignosis analysis. lol noob lol Full House

Spoiler: show

it's easier to cast suspicion upon team mate Roxy when she is paired with splints. that generates a one-or-the-other-or-both scenario which if seen to its conclusion would result in the lynch of BOTH. Golden gets town points for the mafia lynch and adds in a town lynch to balance the sacrifice.

Spoiler: show

note his Day 4 perspective of Bass is pretty different from the one that appeared the next day phase (when general pressure against Bass mounted from all directions).

i'm going to stop here. if you think the cases made in this post are terrible, then you're right. Golden looks town.

#3409

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:splints, what exactly was the competition between you and aether?

To post in pictures. You could use words or add text like Gman but it could hurt your chance of winning. If I were in aethers position I might not have participated either. It would have really hurt her ability to defend herself. (Bass was lynched but she was still getting a lot of heat then) I decided to keep as much to pictures, as it seemed the most in spirit of the contest, but also I didn't need to defend myself like aether. Also my guess was that it was role related (lots of two person side competitions going on - pics, singing, raps, etc) so if a civvie wanted me to post all in pics why not. This role is fun as it can essentially curse two people if they wanted, but the things they have chosen have still allowed the players to function and get their points across. I have my guesses to who has this ability but I'm not going to say who

I haven't really read the raps yet, but as usual I will vote for the most civvie option since I am sure they are both awesome.

#3410

If G-Man is mafia then why did he post the things that he posted?

Duh. because pretending to be cursed (which he continues to deny only makes himself look worse) gives him an easy method of coasting to the later portion of the game. and he has done so. and at the first sign of real trouble (MP going after him hard on Day 4), he fell apart and told his real story. it's not hard at all to envision a mafia player behind his post history.

#3411

also I feel like we are going around in circles with this Gman cursed things.

I think that he did not say he was cursed, but he really can't deny that he let us all continue to believe he was. I feel like that is most of the suspicion on him, and I don't feel like that alone makes him bad. I am liking his responses less and less today though because he seems to be all the Vomps suspicion for similar reasons. Idk whenever someone makes a point like why not this person for that then it always makes me feel worse. If that makes any sense

#3412

fingersplints wrote:Idk whenever someone makes a point like why not this person for that then it always makes me feel worse. If that makes any sense

it makes perfect sense. on 2+2 my compatriots called it a "why me?" defense. and for them it was a big mafia-tell in a player who inevitably did flip mafia. i can't claim to have that much confidence in the matter myself, but it makes sense.

#3413

and i agree that G-Man's picture posting ways don't inherently make him bad. if that was the only thing working against him i probably wouldn't care. but i don't think his actual content (within those pictures) has done much to make him look better.

and G-Man, what was with that "idea" you presented earlier? why would you be "confirmed as a civilian" if the mafia don't kill you tonight?

#3414

has NOT done much*

EBWOP

#3415

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man, what made you reveal your ruse when you did (after MP's dogpee episode)?

Spoiler: show

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:and G-Man, what was with that "idea" you presented earlier? why would you be "confirmed as a civilian" if the mafia don't kill you tonight?

Spoiler: show

#3416

Interactions between Bass and Golden 2.0:

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Ok I have a little time so let me get in on this. I think TH and Golden 2.0 have made some valid points against Roxy.
I dont know G-man's game at all. Has he ever done big gambits like this in the past?

Not much here. He is bussing Roxy and is using other people's posts to help his argument. Hard to think two different mafiosos would make a coordinated effort to bus Roxy, but at this point she was already threatening to quit the game so who knows.

Other than that, Bass never actually interacts says anything to Golden 2.0. Distancing perhaps? Hard to say since Bass total post number in this game was so little there wasn't much opportunity for him to try to do anything to Golden if he was town, either.

Golden wrote:
TinyBubbles wrote:I know its not much of a theory lol. But in the last game golden eyed the main bad guy practically from the beginning, so I'm inclined to trust his instincts

I noticed you voted bass too, what were your reasons? (If you've already said them somewhere in the thread I'm sorry!)
Who was I eyeing when I was lynched? Epi! Like, really very strongly Epi. I said I was voting Bass in self defence, and not only did I have no read on bass, I remember also not understanding what the case was on him. Now, I know Epi was dead at this point so you couldn't vote for him, but it just didn't feel right that you said you suspected Bass because I eyed him, it doesn't ring true to me.

And damn, I'll post this anyway because I just wrote it all, but linki proves me wrong anyway.

This post is an accusation of Bubbles, not actually about Bass. And it's very hard to see something objective when Golden 2.0 is talking about Bass in the context of what Golden 1.0 said. But I have to analyse this because this is Golden suggesting an having a favorable opinion on Bass at some point, and a suspicion of someone on the grounds of their vote against Bass. Not really meaningful, but worth recording I think.

Then Bubbles flipped town right after, and Golden had to admit his mistake. Soon after though, I made my Adam Smith theory post and Golden seemed pretty keen on jumping on it.

Golden wrote:DDL, I think that theory has merit. It could also explain what pinged me above about her lame rationale for voting.

linki - I would never have known invisible hands had anything to do with Adam Smith without you pointing it out.

But then I stopped talking about it for a while and went to focus on other suspects. And so did Golden. Which at the time reeked of opportunism to me. In fact, he started calling me suspicious for it. We traded some posts later and he explained me why:

Golden wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:One thing I also found to be sketchy was his help on defending and proving my theory, and then suddenly stopping talking about it. It's like he saw the possibility of a Bass lynch and wanted to jump on board, but then after sanmateo and a few others argued against it, he realized it was unlikely to bear fruit and jumped away from it. Seems like he is very eager to help, but isn't very consistent about it.
I get where you are coming from on this, but what I did was not because "I wanted to hop on board" a bass lynch, it's because I love evidential theories (vote analysis being the prime example) for two reasons: 1) I think proving them or otherwise suits the way my brain words and 2) I think proving them or otherwise is far more reliable than gut reads. It was actually your 'invisible hand' thing which sealed the deal for me that this could be evidential. For what it's worth, I know hosts who have give hints as to aspects of what went down in the host posts, rabbit8 being the one I can think of easily, so I actually buy that the invisible hand thing could have been a hint. Not necessarily, but I still think you could have been on to something with that.

Ironically, you moving away from that and arguing against the invisible hand being meaningful is in large part why my eye is looking at you today.

(Also, thanks for the no u! Although it does read as legit.)

I did not agree with that point. For me, the "invisible hand" thing was never supposed to be seen as evidence, the Bubbles votes were. But it sounded legit enough that he could believe that, so I called the argument over.

I still think it's weird that Golden chose to focus me for the whole thing and avoided talking about Bass for the rest of the phase, other than giving him a neutral read on his rainbow. Whether he liked my own approach to it or not, if he really believed the "evidential theory" like he said, he could have pursued it himself.

Golden wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:Ok so I want to start by saying I can understand why my vote could look bad to the new players but for everyone that has played with me before they should know I always vote late.
Also DDL I have a feeling no matter where I put my vote yesterday you would have said something about it.
Now if you have any questions please just ask.
Aether or G-Man?

So night 4 starts and Golden is fully aware of the Bass-aether-G-Man confrontation, and he is making them talk about each other. Useful townie approach, I suppose.

There are a lot of posts about Bass here so I'm not quoting them all, but Golden spents a lot of the phase speculating on possible team combinations. His main suspect is aether and he doubts the Bass/G-Man combination could be possible, though he says he suspects them both individually.

At this point every player was on board with focusing on the trio (including the trio themselves) though, so Golden suspecting Bass here is natural even if he is mafia.

It's hard to draw a conclusion with of this part because Golden, like all of us, is on the fence about the three. He has aether as his top read for a while, but he slowly warms up to a Bass lynch as the phase progresses.

Golden wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:If I had to vote right now it would be for Bass.
Thanks, that's what I thought your answer would be.

I would feel more comfortable putting a vote there than on G-Man too.

Golden wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:I think it goes like this:

- If we lynch aether and she flips town, then Bass is very likely town.
- If we lynch aether and she flips mafia, then Bass is more likely mafia than he was before.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips mafia, then aether is very likely mafia.
- If we lynch Bass and he flips town, it doesn't mean anything about aether.

So an aether lynch should be somewhat more informative than a Bass lynch.
That's exactly how I felt coming in to the day. TH's confidence has me rethinking, though, (and he makes good points about TB). Prior to that I was pretty certain about my vote but he has me considering a Bass vote instead.

So Turnip makes his big points about Bass, and about how the Bass/G-Man combination is indeed possible. Everybody starts jumping on board, including me, Jay, and splints though nobody has voted yet. Golden comes and jumps on board too.

Golden wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:Solid analysis JJJ. In any case it makes me think Bubbles was killed because of her link to Bass, either to protect him or frame him. And since we know Roxy was a member of the team as well, and she was soft defending Bass (not like her hard defenses for Golden, Bubbles and splintsy), I have a hard time thinking the kill was meant to frame him.
Soft defending and hard defending just makes it sound so dirty...

At the time of TB's death, when DDL raised the idea of her being Adam Smith, I quite liked the idea because I thought it could help us prove Bass was bad if true.

I don't usually analyse potential mafia motivation because wifom, and actually I didn't think TB's death stood out much from MM and sloonei in that those two hadn't stood out so much for me in the thread as obvious NK targets.

But I've decided to do it in this case because I think good points have been raised about how the mafia could have perceived TB. So, here are my potential motives in order from (what I perceive to be) most likely to least likely - and I know it really is all wifom, but please add or reorder if you think appropriate:

1) Mafia thought TB appeared as though she could be an info role, and they killed her for that reason. This implicates Bass.
2) Mafia thought TB would be an unlikely kill and so killed her for wifom. This, I think, would likely clear Bass (since the most likely wifom is "Bass is bad")
3) Mafia killed TB specifically to frame Bass.
4) Mafia killed TB for some other reason eg she was Mises or a role that otherwise helps civvies. I can only see this being true if they knew for certain.

Numbers two or three might feel more likely to me if everything else was equal. But combining it with the thread analysis is what has me putting the first one first.

He then finally brings back the point about the Adam Smith theory, makes a sensible post about it and voices how he believes Bass can be mafia because of that. Still weird that he took so long to point it out again, but if he's town he could be keeping that to himself until he had a better reason to suspect Bass.

Then votes Bass right after that, tieing with Turnip for the first voter. At this point Bass was pretty much screwed and vote order doesn't matter really much. This lynch was decided before the votes started to pile up.

Golden's growing suspicion of Bass on Day 5 feels natural. But if he is mafia, it can be faked. He could have proposely stayed on the fence about it while watching where the lynch was going, and once Turnip gunned down against Bass, he realized his partner was screwed so he jumped on board with the lynch. That would make him a very careful mafioso, who knows the timing for when to bus his partners.

This doesn't say anything about Golden = mafia, and is just speculation. But it doesn't help him much either. He was not one of the main responsibles for making it happen. Turnip was.

Overall, this is a difficult case. I have reasons to suspect the whole approach of Golden to Bass in this game, and I still suspect how he dealt with the whole Adam Smith theory, but it's not hard for everything to be legit. What can I say is that Golden is very careful. Townie careful or mafia careful? I dunno. I have to lean neutral on this one.

#3417

Oh I totally forgot to look at bwt. Brb, imma do it soon.

#3418

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Oh I totally forgot to look at bwt. Brb, imma do it soon.

i definitely recommend it. i think BWT had a pretty strong Day 1.

#3419

If fingersplints is mafia, then why did she post the things that she posted?

fingersplints wrote:BR's defense of MP definitely caught my eye. Especially in a one mafia set up. If she was bad, I mean he could be a indy but she would know he was more likely to be good.

[insert remainder of three-day-phase tunneling of Black Rock here]. this entire dynamic between splints and Black Rock remains the most compelling evidence against her. she absolutely hounded BR for days about a single post (the narrowness of her focus first brought up by DDL). on Days 1 and 2, this behavior was completely safe and allowed mafia splints to distance herself comfortably from BR. on Day 3 BR became more of a consensus suspect, and the opportunity finally came for splints to gain all of those precious townie points when the mafia flip came.

except she didn't vote for BR. she voted for now-confirmed-town aether (who she had not pursued with nearly the same fervor). and it was a close enough vote that it could have gone the other way. this is still one of the most troubling things in this game to be honest.

fingersplints wrote:You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

How many baddies do you think there are MP?

clearly mafia splints wasn't expecting her bussing to be so transparent.

Spoiler: show

considering the Bubbles kill, this might have been prophetic. and i've found that it's pretty common for mafia players to be more "concerned" with targets being painted than townies. that might be a cultural difference here, but i see it often.

fingersplints wrote:I'm actually going to vote aether now, since she didn't even respond to my post about how she didn't repsond to my other post. My accusation of her isn't light, it's that she has mostly refused to engage with me so I can't build anything on it.

let's examine her aether vote on Day 3 more closely. it was the first vote of the phase for either BR or aether. so mafia splints was conscious of the opportunity to generate a faster bandwagon while her team mate was drawing additional heat. she needed a reason though, so she took advantage of the easy explanation: "aether is not talking to me, so i can't view her less suspiciously".

fingersplints wrote:I'm sticking with my aether suspicion and voting there. I hope you guys are right about Roxy

this Day 4 aether vote came when an avalanche of votes had already fallen on Roxy. there was no chance of the lynch going anywhere else. so mafia splints figured she'd look less suspicious dropping this vote outside the wagon to "stick to her guns" instead of tack on an overkill vote. those late votes are always more heavily scrutinized after all.

Spoiler: show

splints joined the right wagon on Day 5 and her timing was solid. but did she have a choice in the matter? mafia splints saw that the thread climate was a lot worse for Bass than G-Man, and could have fairly expected that it'd go Bass's way with or without her help.

~~~

this case gets weaker as it goes on. the BR thing is still a problem for splints, and it must be stated that she only participated in one of the three mafia lynches. so her record is not perfect and i've probably been too easy on her in recent phases.

#3420

Meaningful interactions between Bass and birdwiththeet (aka Golden 2.0's past life).

Bass_the_Clever wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
3.) of the five players who voted for you on Day 1, who do you feel was the most suspicious for doing so?

3. Out of the the five people who voted me I think BWT's vote pinged me the most it came out of no where.

Bass places some suspicions on BWT. Says he is a big target of his. Never says anything about him again. Since he is mafia, could be just a way of trying to look like he has opinions without saying much. Or could be some safe distancing. Hard to read this.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:Have to leave for work soon and won't be back until tomorrow, well after the lynch deadline. I'm going to go ahead and stick my vote on Bass though, because while it's not much, I think it's the most concrete evidence I've got on anyone right now. The only thing that gives me pause is this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
sanmateo wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Might be my only chance to vote at work before the deadline.

Voting for Bass_the_Clever
why them over elohcin or epi?
I have less conviction for my suspicion of Eloh than the other two. With Epi i can at least ask myself "is it necessary for mafia Epi to carry on this much to get a townie lynched?" and be given a little pause. Because normally townies do a nice job lynching each other on Day 1 without any veiled mafia guidance.

I also think Bass is more likely to be lynched than the other two considering the progression of the thread lately.
I disagree with JJJ on that one. I could see baddie Epig try and pull such a move. If we were a few cycles later, I'd give this much more consideration. But for now, I still think Bass is a stronger choice.

His very first post in the game. He shows up and throws the "out of nowehere" vote on Bass which Bass himself pointed out in the previous quote. Now, this is the second Bass vote in the phase and helps push the wagon, so it makes bwt look good. His reasoning was random, but bwt was the guy with activity problems so I can't really expect him to say much.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Sloonei wrote:I remember birdwithteeth's vote standing out because it seemed like he was the only one to go for Bass without giving any reason, but I looked back and realized that's wrong and he stated agreement with my case in this post: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 34#p143634

that looks good and i approve, but for the sake of skepticism I'll say it's possible he could just be scum hopping on an easy and pre-established case, and one that didn't have as much momentum as some of the others and thus wouldn't be as likely to result in an actual lynch that day.
Usually, it takes me a few cycles to really get into a mafia game and start to go with some of my own ideas. So usually for Day 1, I look for something to catch my eye and I often get accused of piggybacking or parroting other peoples' ideas. Although I tend to think that I still add my own thoughts in there.

I still don't feel good about Bass. But I definitely want to hear more from everyone that voted early. Especially as to why they didn't hold off on voting until later with more discussion and information.

On day 2, he explains his method for voting Bass and shows he keeps his suspicion on him. A real mafia distancing would try make the suspicion temporary and not very strong, but bwt seems really determined to get to the bottom of Bass's alignment.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:One new thing that troubles me about Bass is that despite being Day 1's #2 vote recipient and near-lynchee, his only visit on Day 2 so far has not been very useful for reading him.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote: Can you please show me where I said I was suspected MP? I said I wanted to keep an eye on him because I felt like he was acting different this game. The I gave a short list of what I thought.
Saying you want to keep an eye on someone is pretty much the same thing as suspecting them. You're not directly accusing them of being mafia, but you think there's something worth watching out for.

But you never pursued it, or anything for that matter. You just stayed neutral until you were in danger of getting lynched and you had to put a self defense vote.

Is that how you always play? I'm saying this because I remember someone mentioning you always play like this.
Why would I pursue someone I'm just keeping an eye on. The way I play is with my gut.
i agree with DDL in this exchange. i don't understand the distinction Bass is drawing between "keeping an eye on a player" and "suspecting a player". one might assert that the former is a little less significant, but it's still an expression of suspicion.

otherwise Bass has only talked a little bit about strategy regarding whoever stole the serial killer's role last night. and either alignment can jump into that discussion comfortably.
Exactly. I usually think of "keeping an eye on a player" and "suspecting a player" as the same thing. So Bass' comment struck me as odd in the sense that if you're doing one, you're doing the other. Why differentiate, Bass?

I made a point against Bass. Not a very strong one, I admit, and a lot of people disagreed with me. Bwt didn't. Looks good to him.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:Ok I have a bit of time so if anyone wants to ask me anythingg now is the time or if there are any questions I did answer please point them out.
i have a few:

1.) how do you personally differentiate "keeping an eye on a player" and "suspecting a player"?

2.) who are your top suspects right now and why? you don't have to point to specific posts if time doesn't permit, but please try to offer some explanation.

3.) of the five players who voted for you on Day 1, who do you feel was the most suspicious for doing so?

4.) how might you respond to the points i made against you in this post:

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 28#p143328
1. IMO keeping an eye on someone is just something I see that isn't the norm for that person it doesn't make me suspect them it just makes me want to watch that person and see if there is more to what I noticed. Suspecting a person is when I have found something worth voting for.

Fair enough. Just wanted your clarification here.

2. Just so you know I really don't pull quotes. But my suspects so far are-
- Elo because she voted someone she felt good about and gave a lame excuse. She acted like she knew his game and unless she has played with him somewhere else golden just started playing on this site and has died early every game. So how would she know his game?

She might have been clinging to a reason to latch onto a Golden vote. That would be my guess at least.

- TinyBubbles because I was her top suspect and she votes Elo. Why give up on your top suspect if there is a chance that person can get lynched? I understand she trust people who voted Elo but I think piggybacking because of "trust" is something that mafias do to get in good with people who are vocal and seem super civvie.

Fair enough again. I'm hoping to hear more from her on this before I reserve further judgement.

3. Out of the the five people who voted me I think BWT's vote pinged me the most it came out of no where.

Out of nowhere? I think I gave a fairly good justification for it.

He trades some arguments with Bass. He seems to have accepted Bass's defenses and stop focusing on him. Could be a legit townie approach to investigation, or mafia following the textbook on distancing by stopping with the attacks after a while. But the way he tunneled so hard on Bass early and almost got him lynched makes me think it's the former.

birdwithteeth11 wrote:SON OF A.....

I saw I had about 30 seconds left (I thought), went to click on the bubble next to Bass' name, and then went to vote....and it wouldn't accept my vote because it was past the deadline. Oh well.

But yeah, if I could have voted, I would have voted for Bass probably. DDL would be a close second for his pressing Elo on her Golden vote, and DDL's voicing suspicion of her, but then going with an aether vote which seemed like an easy cop-out to me.

Might as well finish catching up for now.

Linki: If Elo flips civ, I think DDL is definitely getting a closer look from me. The only person I remember having anything resembling a substantial case on her is MP. I feel like there was one more player but I can't remember right now who it is.

That, and I think it's more likely Elo comes up civ because of all the weak reasons IMO I saw for voting for her. Seemed like an easy target unfortunately.

Linki: Holy shit did NOT expect that at ALL!

He misses the vote despite being online and posting regularly during the last hour. Doesn't vote, but says he would have voted Bass. This was bwt's lowest point in the game for me, which make me put him high on my suspect list until he left the game and Golden 2.0 became a thing.

The fact is, though, that a Bass vote at this point would've done nothing, but saying he still suspects Bass does, and shows that he hasn't given up on it. He is tunneling on Bass.

Overall, I think while the distancing it's possible, it would be very risky, and bwt's interactions with Bass make me think good of him, and of Golden 2.0 by extension.

In the end, Golden remains in the "slightly town" tier of my rainbow, which enough evidence for being town but enough tinfoiling for him to be possible mafia. I would not lynch him next phase.

#3421

Just read Jay's latest iso on bwt, and he has good points. While bwt's bussing of bass looked good for him, bwt had scummy posts left and right when he talked about players. I can't drop the possibility that he was simply willing to throw Bass under the bus and reap the results. Like Jay said, it's not like mafia hasn't done this before.

#3422

Spoiler: show

#3423

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Just read Jay's latest iso on bwt, and he has good points. While bwt's bussing of bass looked good for him, bwt had scummy posts left and right when he talked about players. I can't drop the possibility that he was simply willing to throw Bass under the bus and reap the results. Like Jay said, it's not like mafia hasn't done this before.

the primary reason i view it positively in the end is that it occurred on Day 1. BWT's actions could have legitimately led to Bass's lynch, and while it's not impossible mafia behavior -- it is less likely. Hard bussing on Day 1 can be disastrous if not done with great care.

#3424

Also another thing I just noticed, I made a contradition between my splints and Golden reads (honestly it's hard to be unbiased with this thing). I said splints vote for Bass was an important one, but then when I went to talk about Golden I said Bass was pretty much screwed by the time the votes started piling up.

So I gotta decide between one of these two views, and now that I look at it, he wasn't that screwed. The voting ended at 6-4, and at some point I was assuming the possibility of Jay voting for G-Man, since he wasn't really on board with the Bubbles=cop theory. Which would have made it a 5-5.

That means splints vote was really important, but so was Golden's one. This is a town sign for both of them, ignoring the possibility of distancing (which is slighly more believable with Golden than with splints due to the vote order).

#3425

"It's cuz yo butt stank" is the greatest ending line of all time, but I thought rap #1 was overall more solid. The couplet that rhymed "diorama" and "llama" was particularly inspired.

#3426

https://i.imgflip.com/mjcmt.jpg

Yes, it's what i'm doing next.

#3427

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:(honestly it's hard to be unbiased with this thing)

i can vouch for this. it's difficult to not let pre-conceptions of a player being analyzed to influence how i/you read that player's interactions. total objectivity is a challenge. and that's why it's a lot better when these posts are coming from multiple different sources.

#3428

If Dragon D. Luffy is mafia, why did he post the things that he posted?

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 55#p143155

i've just noticed now that in this Day 1 reads list he didn't include any of the mafia players we've confirmed now. DDL has shown himself to be highly conscious of the WIFOM concept throughout this game, and as a mafia player this would be WIFOM of the highest order. would mafia DDL really fail to even mention all of his team mates in this post? it's not impossible.

Spoiler: show

DDL's Day 1 behavior w/r/t Golden does appear opportunistic. he latched on to Turnip's case and even built upon it with meta-based concepts -- a curious move for a player who's never actually played with Golden before. it's especially notable considering this post:

Spoiler: show

he filled the blanks of his prior reads list with this post, which includes all three of the confirmed mafia team. he called BR and Roxy both null, but wasn't afraid to label Bass as scummy. and Bass was the primary counterwagon for Golden on Day 1. but instead of voting that way, he opted for the Turnip-pushed case and a strange portrayal of meta with his Golden vote. and that's the definition of opportunism. it's not hard to envision Bass as a mafioso in this scenario based solely on his own posts.

Spoiler: show

mafia DDL lamented his mislynch-supporting vote with this exaggerated language. a bad vote on Day 1 should not really be seen as a significant failure, it's par for the course in mafia games.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:This is the kind of guy that makes it tempting to policy lynch early. I can't justify a player like this living long. The next day phase is pretty much guaranteed to have a good part of its discussion on him, and if we allow it he is going to push it in useless directions again. We need to either figure him out soon or kill him. Or both.

mafia DDL did some work here to set up an eventual policy lynch of confirmed townie Epignosis. this kind of set-up for "must-lynch players" has been thematic in his posts throughout the game.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Honestly I don't see much point in analysing why mafia killed someone. That's WIFOM trap.

it isn't hard to see why a mafia player might want to discourage this kind of thing. while there is plenty of room for misdirection in night kill analysis, it still represents an opportunity to learn something. and something is better than the alternative: nothing. it's also a bit contrary to his later exploration of the Bubbles kill.

Spoiler: show

if DDL is mafia then he's been playing into a WIFOM strategy the whole game. and he's clearly well aware of that. he has repeatedly brought up WIFOM without it being used against him, and such preemptive defensiveness is always at least a little suspicious. especially when claims he isn't defending hi

#3429

FFS i must have hit some key-combo to post that before i was finished. continuing...

#3430

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: it isn't hard to see why a mafia player might want to discourage this kind of thing. while there is plenty of room for misdirection in night kill analysis, it still represents an opportunity to learn something. and something is better than the alternative: nothing. it's also a bit contrary to his later exploration of the Bubbles kill.

I was assuming someone might bring this up eventually.

Thing is, while I still believe night kill analysis is usually a bad idea, I draw the line if it comes to town power roles. There isn't much WIFOM involved when it comes to mafia wanting to kill a cop. They have to do it soon or they're screwed. So that's a reasonable avenue for NK analysis, imo. Otherwise, I just think it's too easy for mafia to misdirect players with their kills.

#3431

continuing the previous case for DDL, accessible through this link: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 11#p149710

Spoiler: show

mafia DDL correctly labeled Roxy mafia, but gave positive reads to Bass and Black Rock. the Bass read is at least contrary to what he'd said on Day 1 (Bass was his #2 suspect). and i think it'd be status quo for a mafia player to make a list like this and include just one of his team mates as a bad read (no more, no less).

Spoiler: show

more WIFOM explanation about the WIFOM nature of his WIFOMy defense/non-defense in which he talked a great deal about WIFOM

Spoiler: show

mafia DDL explained his aether vote during the Black Rock lynch as aether "failing spectacularly to look like town". this is the language of a manipulator, and it's the kind of thing that has made people suspicious of DDL since the start of Day 1.

Spoiler: show

safely reads Roxy as "slightly" mafia during the phase which eventually saw her lynched. this is good language for mafia DDL to employ to ensure he'll look okay no matter what happens with Roxy. if she does get lynched, then he has contributed something to the case against her. if she does not end up lynched, it's at least in part because DDL did not encourage that end loudly enough.

Spoiler: show

this was about G-Man after he admitted to faking it. it's strongly worded and could be seen as opportunistic -- a way to get off of Roxy and onto someone else who could draw a lot of votes.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:That's the "throwing a tantrum and ragequitting" I was talking about before. Is there anything we can do in face of a post like that other than lynching the person?

Roxy kind of secured her own demise when she self-voted. and DDL finally let alone the matter of G-Man and placed the vote for Roxy.

Spoiler: show

"I'm on board with a Bass lynch, but here's a pile of reasons why it'd be better to lynch aether first." mafia DDL again leaves himself in a win-win position. if he has to bus (and the climate of the thread pushed him against Bass for sure), then he might as well kill off a townie too.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Vote Bass

Sorry Jay, your analysis is cool and makes sense, but early votes and night kills say a lot more to me than whatever Bubbles said in her post. Anything could be her trying to make her votes look more natural. Besides, while her early suspicions justify her votes, they also justify her wanting to investigate them in the first place.

after my Bubbles-as-cop analysis, mafia DDL took the opportunity to set me up for future suspicion when Bass eventually flipped mafia. because my analysis, while fair even according to DDL, could be perceived as a defense of Bass.

~~~

that's probably enough. at times here i had to really reach to make something of it. suspicion of DDL hinges mostly upon gut reads of his tone.

#3432

summary of that exercise (which was more difficult than i anticipated tbh):

this player was difficult to case in a way that made me feel anything:

Golden

these players look more town than not, but i was able to generate a case with a bit less difficulty:

fingersplints
Dragon D. Luffy

this player cannot be cased reliably or defended reliably, but it's entirely by design. so i side with suspicion before trust:

Vompatti

these players can easily be cased:

G-Man
sanmateo

#3433

good to see jjj channel the sans-cap spirit

#3434

Golden wrote:Definitely interested in other opinions especially as to sanmateo's meta, because this analysis has completely changed my thinking about my vote for tomorrow, sanmateo has now gone past Vomps and G-Man as my number one suspect.

meta is the biggest difficulty with the case against sanmateo, honestly. i think he has played to his town meta most of this game (especially early). as i see it, he is a player who is always willing to state his opinions no matter how strong, and he is hard to shake from his suspicions. he has lived up to that in this game with his continued suspicion of splints at least.

however: sanmateo is still relatively new to mafia. i think he has only been mafia-aligned once ever. so he has not really had an opportunity to develop any counter-meta. which is to say i am hesitant to rely on his "town meta" for much. the biggest concern i have about him from a meta standpoint is that he has completely left this game behind later in the game. he is a good townie, and that isn't like him. he hasn't really answered to people's suspicion of him other than to say "yeah, i've had a bad game".

#3435

Meaningful interactions between Bass and G-Man:

It took a long time for Bass to ever become aware of G-Man's existance (I'm starting to see a pattern here). He only started talking about G-Man when the three way lynch involving the two became a thing. And his opinion is pretty genative.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Thats what I looking over now. I agree that G-man looks like the way to go after the way the Roxy lynch went down.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:Thats what I looking over now. I agree that G-man looks like the way to go after the way the Roxy lynch went down.
Can you elaborate?
I should have said the way day four went down. G-Man coming under heat then telling everyone he isn't cursed. It looks super shady. He talks about not having time to keep up with the thread, but he has plenty of time to find pictures and and text to them. I think him and Roxy both catching heat put him in a bad stop. If you are in fact a civvie that can't keep up its better to lose you at this point in the game then later. I think he felt persure from his team to come out and say he wasnt faking to see if that can buy him more time.

But he doesn't take part in the discussion. No comments about possible team formations or G-Man's responses to everything that happened on D5. Only showing up at the end of the phase, dropping an useless self-defense vote, and dieing.

This doesn't look really good for G-Man since, if Bass really to get him lynched, he had every opportunity to do so. But instead he just made some early posts which could be interpreted as mild, inconsequential distancing.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 20#p144420

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 27#p146027

These posts are fucking huge so I just linked them.

They come from the phase of the game where G-Man was posting strictly images, and not even putting texts on them. His interactions with Bass are limited to these two posts where he reads him as bad. But such posts would hardly ever influence anyone else's reads since it's just a bunch of textless reads, so it'd be fairly safe for a mafioso to distance from Bass this way.

Then G-Man eventually starts posting memes with texts. He spends a long time fluffinf, then moves to that bickering with me and MP, which lasted all of day 4. In the way, he posts another Bass read.

G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show

In which he says he's leaning slighly mafia on him. Again, doesn't mean much.

Following the timeline, the next thing is G-Man's confession about not being cursed. He throws a couple of reads in that, but doesn't say anything about Bass.

He then does another image-only post where he puts Bass and me as his two main suspects. At least he is being consistent in his Bass suspicion.

Then the three-way lynch comes, and G-Man assumes a firm instance against his two opponents, aether and Bass (belieavable, but VERY convenient). He spents the rest of the phase focusing on the two of them, while occasionally saying something about me. He does vote analysis on all three of them.

G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show

Not gonna quote all posts since it's a long discussion (just like in the Golden post). G-Man takes part in the discussion about team combinations. Initially he is a firm believer of the aether/Bass team up. Then he eventually adopts the idea of Bass =mafia and aether=town being possible. He flip-flops between Bass and aether for most of the phase. Like Turnip said, he seemed very aware of where the discussion was leaning, and could be wanting to stay in the right side of it. But his indecision isn't different from anyone else's so it doesn't necessarily make him look bad.

He never takes a definite stance until after the Bass lynch is almost decided, when he shows up and drops the obligatory self-defense vote. Late votes have been a standard for G-Man, having jumped late on most of his votes in the game (interestingly, G-Man has took part of every single winning lynch in the game, never voting for someone who didn't win). This can be a pretty safe mafia approach, and doesn't make him look good.

Overall, G-Man's approach about Bass has screamed SAFE, with him never being a big force behind Bass's death.

#3436

if i had to place my Day 7 vote now, it'd be for sanmateo.

#3437

this has been the best night phase i've ever been a part of. even if one of y'all helping out with the analysis is bad. leaving it all out on the table is the correct move, and it just makes for good Mafia.

#3438

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Meaningful interactions between Bass and G-Man:

It took a long time for Bass to ever become aware of G-Man's existance (I'm starting to see a pattern here). He only started talking about G-Man when the three way lynch involving the two became a thing. And his opinion is pretty genative.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:Thats what I looking over now. I agree that G-man looks like the way to go after the way the Roxy lynch went down.

Bass_the_Clever wrote:
Turnip Head wrote:
Bass_the_Clever wrote:Thats what I looking over now. I agree that G-man looks like the way to go after the way the Roxy lynch went down.
Can you elaborate?
I should have said the way day four went down. G-Man coming under heat then telling everyone he isn't cursed. It looks super shady. He talks about not having time to keep up with the thread, but he has plenty of time to find pictures and and text to them. I think him and Roxy both catching heat put him in a bad stop. If you are in fact a civvie that can't keep up its better to lose you at this point in the game then later. I think he felt persure from his team to come out and say he wasnt faking to see if that can buy him more time.
But he doesn't take part in the discussion. No comments about possible team formations or G-Man's responses to everything that happened on D5. Only showing up at the end of the phase, dropping an useless self-defense vote, and dieing.

This doesn't look really good for G-Man since, if Bass really to get him lynched, he had every opportunity to do so. But instead he just made some early posts which could be interpreted as mild, inconsequential distancing.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 20#p144420

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 27#p146027
These posts are fucking huge so I just linked them.

They come from the phase of the game where G-Man was posting strictly images, and not even putting texts on them. His interactions with Bass are limited to these two posts where he reads him as bad. But such posts would hardly ever influence anyone else's reads since it's just a bunch of textless reads, so it'd be fairly safe for a mafioso to distance from Bass this way.

Then G-Man eventually starts posting memes with texts. He spends a long time fluffinf, then moves to that bickering with me and MP, which lasted all of day 4. In the way, he posts another Bass read.

G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show

In which he says he's leaning slighly mafia on him. Again, doesn't mean much.

Following the timeline, the next thing is G-Man's confession about not being cursed. He throws a couple of reads in that, but doesn't say anything about Bass.

He then does another image-only post where he puts Bass and me as his two main suspects. At least he is being consistent in his Bass suspicion.

Then the three-way lynch comes, and G-Man assumes a firm instance against his two opponents, aether and Bass (belieavable, but VERY convenient). He spents the rest of the phase focusing on the two of them, while occasionally saying something about me. He does vote analysis on all three of them.

G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show

Not gonna quote all posts since it's a long discussion (just like in the Golden post). G-Man takes part in the discussion about team combinations. Initially he is a firm believer of the aether/Bass team up. Then he eventually adopts the idea of Bass =mafia and aether=town being possible. He flip-flops between Bass and aether for most of the phase. Like Turnip said, he seemed very aware of where the discussion was leaning, and could be wanting to stay in the right side of it. But his indecision isn't different from anyone else's so it doesn't necessarily make him look bad.

He never takes a definite stance until after the Bass lynch is almost decided, when he shows up and drops the obligatory self-defense vote. Late votes have been a standard for G-Man, having jumped late on most of his votes in the game (interestingly, G-Man has took part of every single winning lynch in the game, never voting for someone who didn't win). This can be a pretty safe mafia approach, and doesn't make him look good.

Overall, G-Man's approach about Bass has screamed SAFE, with him never being a big force behind Bass's death.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:if i had to place my Day 7 vote now, it'd be for sanmateo.

#3439

I tried to make the post neutral. Not my fault you have been looking like uberscum since day 4 or so.

#3440

General message in case i die tonight:

If Day 7 goes wrong, please don't just proceed into Day 8 already knowing how you'll vote. Never stop reassessing, and account for all new context with newly-dead townies.

#3441

Besides what point is there in making an analysis under the assumption that you're town? No analysis is needed for that, just take everything you did at face value and assume you always told the truth.

There's a reason Jay is only doing "X is mafia" for people instead of "X is town" posts. For the former you have to try to read the person's hidden intentions while the later would just require you to copypaste everything and say "what he said".

#3442

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Besides what point is there in making an analysis under the assumption that you're town? No analysis is needed for that, just take everything you did at face value and assume you always told the truth.

There's a reason Jay is only doing "X is mafia" for people instead of "X is town" posts. For the former you have to try to read the person's hidden intentions while the later would just require you to copypaste everything and say "what he said".

Spoiler: show

#3443

Sorry guys, can't catch up and can't do the JJ thing just yet. Leaving house with sermon in one hour and haven't finished writing it yet!

#3444

take care of your sermon, Golden. that's more important than this. good luck!

#3445

besides, the duty of assessing my post history should never fall on just one person. there can be no more tiresome task.

#3446

Really doubt you're gonna die tonight, G-Man, regardless of whether your Hearth Ledger memes may say. Unless you got a power role and mafia somehow figured that out.

Also speaking of real life, it should be fairly hard for me to come online often in day 7, assuming I survive the night myself. I have an exam on Monday, then this huge paper to be finished and turned in by Tuesday morning.

Day 8 though will be legen-waitforit-

#3447

Never mind what I just said, day 7 is the one I should be able to post in. Night 7 and day 8 should be the difficult ones.

#3448

Night 6: Exit the Dragon

Their confidence newly dented, the group put their heads together to try to reassess the situation, looking at all available data. Since there was so much data available, they decided to divide up the labor. They all went into separate rooms and pored over their books.

Dragon D. Luffy was in a small, cozy office, with mahogany bookshelves and a small, green-shaded lamp. He looked up, startled, when the lights went out. "Hey! Turn that back on! There's someone in here, you know!"

He paused, waiting for a "Oh! Sorry," and a resumption of his reading. All he heard, however, was the squeak of a shoe on the stone floor nearby. He sat rooted to his chair, listening even more closely. Then he heard another creak, growing from near silence to fill the room, and a multitudinous whispering, like win blowing through leaves. There was a thunk, and then another, and still more, and something landed on his head. "Ow!" he exclaimed, and it was the last thing he said before the bookshelf he had been sitting by fell on him and crushed him. He never even knew what happened.

Dragon D. Luffy has been killed by Robert Solow.
Your productivity in Night 6 caused a BOOM!! in Day 7.
It is now Day 7. You have 24 hours to lynch someone.

#3449

Welcome to the land of the dead, zombie DDL. Fantastic first game on The Syndicate.

#3450

Heh. I suppose it took long enough.

Thanks for the game llama and Russ. It's was pretty good. Also thanks for the awesome role I got to play with.

Good luck town.

Who killed our talkative teddy??