Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Still won't be around for several hours to do any serious analysis. Will get some done tonight. RIP DDL - it was very good fun playing with you, I really hope you do stick around at TS and it sounds like you are planning to which is good.

In a quick skim, I see JJ has some suspicion of me for DDL's death. Not sure where that's come from, JJ if you could elaborate so I have a target to aim at in defending that later it would be good. I didn't perceive DDL as coming after me, so it would be good to understand why that is your perception.

i didn't assert suspicion of you. i simply observed that DDL was harder on you in his analysis than i was (he came upon a neutral read while i had you as my top town read). and i think there are a lot of strategic implications in the DDL night kill choice. so i am willing to explore every possibility -- including those that implicate a player i read as town otherwise.

it's also a big reason why i have stepped off of my sanmateo aggression.

[G-Man]

Spoiler: show

[sanmateo]

top 3 reasons to not lynch me:

#1 - i'm town

[JaggedJimmyJay]

alright G-Man, i'm game.

1. i was the first person in the game to cast suspicion upon all three of the dead mafia. it didn't always get noticed, but it happened. i tried to get Bass lynched on Day 1 and went after BR and Roxy on Day 2.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 28#p143328 -- Bass

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 15#p144515 -- BR

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 75#p144675 -- Roxy

2. I have 600+ bloody posts. i know that doesn't make me town, but i have only eclipsed 300 as mafia once in my entire mafia "career"

3. i am literally doing everything i can to carry the team on my back by analyzing everything. that's no disrespect to others who have also worked very hard. that's how town wins mafia games.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

top 3 reasons to not lynch me:

#1 - i'm town

please try harder. i might be willing to believe you, but nobody else here knows you at all. you gotta convince everyone.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

this is where i leave MP in the dust.

[sanmateo]

whats your read on young vompatti? i've the feel he's town and i guess whoever john nash is did too but

i dont think i would vote for him over g-man or splints

when you speak his language he's usually a little more willing to interact. i like his pledge to vote G-Man into oblivion given the chance (as a town-tell for Vomps, not as a strategy). there's no way to have conviction about him, but i agree. i don't think i'll vote for him today. what makes you hesitant to vote him?

im having trouble answering this bc of the syndicate rules. it's nothing certain and it basically amounts to a hunch

[JaggedJimmyJay]

whats your read on young vompatti? i've the feel he's town and i guess whoever john nash is did too but

i dont think i would vote for him over g-man or splints

when you speak his language he's usually a little more willing to interact. i like his pledge to vote G-Man into oblivion given the chance (as a town-tell for Vomps, not as a strategy). there's no way to have conviction about him, but i agree. i don't think i'll vote for him today. what makes you hesitant to vote him?

im having trouble answering this bc of the syndicate rules. it's nothing certain and it basically amounts to a hunch

understood.

what do you think of Golden?

[sanmateo]

top 3 reasons to not lynch me:

#1 - i'm town

please try harder. i might be willing to believe you, but nobody else here knows you at all. you gotta convince everyone.

i think this exercise is basically wifom, isnt it? idk

#1 - the whole case against me amounts to me not being in the right bandwagons, which is something scum can easily avoid. it's not like any of the players alive were integral parts of every single one of those.

#2 - i was right about elo and i pursued that lynch. all the scums we've caught distanced theirselves from it because being on the wrong side of a townie lynch on day 2 would mean you catch a lot attention early on.

#3 - i promise yall i'm starting to try again, and it would be better for town not to lynch me today as it would be a wasted day

#4 - i'm the underdog

[sanmateo]

whats your read on young vompatti? i've the feel he's town and i guess whoever john nash is did too but

i dont think i would vote for him over g-man or splints

when you speak his language he's usually a little more willing to interact. i like his pledge to vote G-Man into oblivion given the chance (as a town-tell for Vomps, not as a strategy). there's no way to have conviction about him, but i agree. i don't think i'll vote for him today. what makes you hesitant to vote him?

im having trouble answering this bc of the syndicate rules. it's nothing certain and it basically amounts to a hunch

understood.

what do you think of Golden?

his posts read the same way as town golden and a quick skim thru bwt's posts makes me trust him. he's my strongest town read.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

it is WIFOM, but i don't care. it's content, and for 5 out of the 6 of us it'll be honest.

[sanmateo]

it is WIFOM, but i don't care. it's content, and for 5 out of the 6 of us it'll be honest.

dont you find it odd that g-man would bring it up? imo it's basically a way to claim whatever townie cred you can while shifting the focus onto others

[JaggedJimmyJay]

it is WIFOM, but i don't care. it's content, and for 5 out of the 6 of us it'll be honest.

dont you find it odd that g-man would bring it up? imo it's basically a way to claim whatever townie cred you can while shifting the focus onto others

i wouldn't say i find it odd. my bigger concern with him is that he thinks his votes are such a strong defense under the current circumstances.

[Golden]

Still won't be around for several hours to do any serious analysis. Will get some done tonight. RIP DDL - it was very good fun playing with you, I really hope you do stick around at TS and it sounds like you are planning to which is good.

In a quick skim, I see JJ has some suspicion of me for DDL's death. Not sure where that's come from, JJ if you could elaborate so I have a target to aim at in defending that later it would be good. I didn't perceive DDL as coming after me, so it would be good to understand why that is your perception.

i didn't assert suspicion of you. i simply observed that DDL was harder on you in his analysis than i was (he came upon a neutral read while i had you as my top town read). and i think there are a lot of strategic implications in the DDL night kill choice. so i am willing to explore every possibility -- including those that implicate a player i read as town otherwise.

it's also a big reason why i have stepped off of my sanmateo aggression.

Thanks for clarifying it further. I haven't had a chance to do more than a very brief skim of either of your reads on me, which I did at that same stage as seeing your post here, so that's why I was surprised to see that as a potential read. I understand now.

I still suspect sanmateo. But then, at this point, I don't think I've really understood what has you changing your mind. I need to give my wife some time now, but I'll come back and make sure I've read everything that's happened in the last 12-15 hours properly and posted my updated thoughts before I go to sleep tonight.

BTW - to everyone - thanks for being understanding about my sermon. It was one I found was very difficult to write, and when it was finished I still didn't feel I'd really nailed it. The amount of positive feedback I got on it was overwhelming. It goes to show that sometimes you can do good things despite yourself.

I feel very keenly that I haven't contributed to this game over the last 48 hours or so as much as I should have or would have liked to, so I intend to make up for it from tomorrow.

[Golden]

I thought there were some points in here which I might be able to provide some understanding of. I've deleted a lot of the quote where I don't have anything to say in response.

Interactions between Bass and Golden 2.0:

Soon after though, I made my Adam Smith theory post and Golden seemed pretty keen on jumping on it.

DDL, I think that theory has merit. It could also explain what pinged me above about her lame rationale for voting.

linki - I would never have known invisible hands had anything to do with Adam Smith without you pointing it out.

But then I stopped talking about it for a while and went to focus on other suspects. And so did Golden. Which at the time reeked of opportunism to me. In fact, he started calling me suspicious for it. We traded some posts later and he explained me why:

One thing I also found to be sketchy was his help on defending and proving my theory, and then suddenly stopping talking about it. It's like he saw the possibility of a Bass lynch and wanted to jump on board, but then after sanmateo and a few others argued against it, he realized it was unlikely to bear fruit and jumped away from it. Seems like he is very eager to help, but isn't very consistent about it.

I get where you are coming from on this, but what I did was not because "I wanted to hop on board" a bass lynch, it's because I love evidential theories (vote analysis being the prime example) for two reasons: 1) I think proving them or otherwise suits the way my brain words and 2) I think proving them or otherwise is far more reliable than gut reads. It was actually your 'invisible hand' thing which sealed the deal for me that this could be evidential. For what it's worth, I know hosts who have give hints as to aspects of what went down in the host posts, rabbit8 being the one I can think of easily, so I actually buy that the invisible hand thing could have been a hint. Not necessarily, but I still think you could have been on to something with that.

Ironically, you moving away from that and arguing against the invisible hand being meaningful is in large part why my eye is looking at you today.

(Also, thanks for the no u! Although it does read as legit.)

I did not agree with that point. For me, the "invisible hand" thing was never supposed to be seen as evidence, the Bubbles votes were. But it sounded legit enough that he could believe that, so I called the argument over.

I still think it's weird that Golden chose to focus me for the whole thing and avoided talking about Bass for the rest of the phase, other than giving him a neutral read on his rainbow. Whether he liked my own approach to it or not, if he really believed the "evidential theory" like he said, he could have pursued it himself.

Pursuing the evidential theory is what I was doing (or certainly what I felt I was doing). I was persuaded that I wasn't going to get enough from the hosts to determine TB was Adam Smith. I did not believe she was Akerlof. And so I was left in a situation where I did not feel I had any evidence to pursue.

What I should have considered as a perspective, but didn't until later, was thinking of it from a mafia perspective and seeing that even if TB wasn't an info role, mafia perceiving her to be one because of her approach to bass could still account for her death. Hindsight is what it is.

What can I say is that Golden is very careful. Townie careful or mafia careful? I dunno. I have to lean neutral on this one.

I don't really think of myself as careful. But one thing I definitely do try to do as much as I can is recognise that my perception of events is not necessarily the true one, especially because I have a history of tunnel vision and I've become very aware of trying to minimise that. Part of it is that I just write in a mafia thread like I write in my job and life; like a legal analyst trying to present both sides of the coin so that my client can understand the full range of options they might have. I wonder if this is why some of the new people saw me as an observer of the game and not really in the game - I'm often deliberately trying to filter any preconceived bias out of my posts and make them as objective as possible.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I still suspect sanmateo. But then, at this point, I don't think I've really understood what has you changing your mind.

Two things, in no particular order:

1. i plain read him as a townie. there is evidence against him suggesting otherwise i know, but the same held true for aether. i expressed gut-based doubts about her too. sanmateo's disposition and his behavior read to me as a person who is genuinely exasperated by this game and his consistent incorrect reads in it. and there are a certain few posts that are just like him that feel very town to me. for example:

if me and jay both make it to lylo i'm voting for him no matter what

sanmateo never allows himself to trust me. i really don't think i've ever seen it. and in this situation, i can understand why he's maintaining that perspective (i hope it isn't a bad omen for LyLo). i am an easy player to tinfoil by default, and over the last phase i have flopped on my perspective of him. he's likely to view that dubiously.

2. the DDL kill speaks volumes to me. DDL was gut-read as mafia by so many players all game long, and i think the last mafia would have liked to have him in LyLo. he'd have had the potential to draw quick votes. so that he was killed when he was had to have some strategic significance, and i think sanmateo is in the most interesting position there. DDL was the only person left who wasn't calling sanmateo a mafia read. he even called him a slight town read. whoever killed DDL was likely counting on the rest of us to glide through a sanmateo lynch to get to LyLo. i know that's WIFOM, but this would be WIFOM too:

"mafia sanmateo intentionally killed his only supporter for the sake of misdirection"

[JaggedJimmyJay]

moreover, i think sanmateo makes good points about splints. G-Man and splints are my most likely votes right now. but i still want to talk it over.

[Golden]

OK, JJ, I understand where you are coming from, but because I'm reading bad on sanmateo I've gone back to have a look at timings etc because I want to put the theory to the test that 'sanmateo wouldn't kill the only person reading him as town'. Perhaps this is just my bias but after doing my reread of sanmateo my gut says bad, so I want to do this properly.

Were very many people reading sanmateo as bad on day 6? I know I had him as town, and so did DDL, both in our rainbows. I would only come to change my mind on sanmateo after I did my reread of his connections with bass. There is no evidence sanmateo ever returned to the site or thread between the time I made that post and day 7. DDL never took the chance to provide his thoughts on that post before he died.

I went back and it looks like you and G-Man both called him out as your 'most likely vote' after my case as well, so I'm going back to look at people's most recent reads of sanmateo as at the last time we know he was here.

DDL - civ
golden - civ
JJ - ambiguous, but you did say 'town' but followed it up with a comment about 'you want to get him back into town mode'.
splints - sanmateo was her highest suspicion
G-Man - unclear, but also pretty much a waste of a NK anyway
Vomps - see G-Man entry.

I'm not so convinced that sanmateo would be killing his 'only ally' - if he didn't even arrive after my post, the only person clearly expressing a lot of suspicion of him appears to be splints. If he did come back (but just didn't post) after, then your point would stand and make a lot of sense, although he has no guarantee what DDL would think of the meaningful connections post either.

[Golden]

I have thought through various scenarios about vote splitting, too, and given the gun/butter mechanics I think it would be better if we could get as close to a unanimous opinion as we can - in a situation where player x gets three votes and player y gets three votes, mafia playing their hand carefully could still see player z die.

[Golden]

I am open to being convinced sanmateo is good - sorry if it appears otherwise. The case just feels good to me. But I recognise the aether one did too.

[Golden]

For me, the biggest point in splints favour (for being town) was MP's sudden flip on her alignment. It seemed so sudden and severe that I found it notable.

I'm now off to bed, see you all tomorrow, lets hope we get it right!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJ - ambiguous, but you did say 'town' but followed it up with a comment about 'you want to get him back into town mode'.

honestly i still suspected him when i said that. i was just trying to motivate him to get involved.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

OK, JJ, I understand where you are coming from, but because I'm reading bad on sanmateo I've gone back to have a look at timings etc because I want to put the theory to the test that 'sanmateo wouldn't kill the only person reading him as town'. Perhaps this is just my bias but after doing my reread of sanmateo my gut says bad, so I want to do this properly.

Were very many people reading sanmateo as bad on day 6? I know I had him as town, and so did DDL, both in our rainbows. I would only come to change my mind on sanmateo after I did my reread of his connections with bass. There is no evidence sanmateo ever returned to the site or thread between the time I made that post and day 7. DDL never took the chance to provide his thoughts on that post before he died.

at the end of the Day, the only two players who weren't outright pledging to vote for sanmateo were Vompatti and DDL. the former is never going to be nightkilled obviously. so that brings me to your next point:

I'm not so convinced that sanmateo would be killing his 'only ally' - if he didn't even arrive after my post, the only person clearly expressing a lot of suspicion of him appears to be splints. If he did come back (but just didn't post) after, then your point would stand and make a lot of sense, although he has no guarantee what DDL would think of the meaningful connections post either.

this would be better answered by sanmateo himself. sanmateo: i saw you stop by the thread a few times without posting, but i don't remember exactly when that was. were you aware of the suspicions being voiced about you at the end of Day 6? and of DDL's willingness to town read you?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

For me, the biggest point in splints favour (for being town) was MP's sudden flip on her alignment. It seemed so sudden and severe that I found it notable.

this may demand further investigation. this would mean you suspected MP had role-produced information that made him change his mind, right? the following roles might be compatible with that:

Adam Smith
Ludwig von Mises
George Akerlof

i don't think he was von Mises. i could maybe see Adam Smith, but i'd need to look back at how he reacted to DDL's propositions re: Bubbles on Day 4 (and Smith's role is the least effective of the three for determining who is who, i think). if he was Akerlof, i'd expect that to reflect elsewhere in his post history too beyond just the splints reversal. so it demands further digging.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

looking into MP as either Adam Smith or Akerlof...

Spoiler: show

On that note, I've said everything I need to for the Night, this time for certain.

Again, I understand how you feel, splints, I've been there when I've overextended myself and invested a lot into a game emotionally and time-wise; hell, I've done that this game.

I want you to know that I'm willing to take a step back and consider every possibility, even that you're a civilian, but at the moment, my rainbow reads as previously stated still stand.

MP's last post about splints on Night 3. it came at 2:53 pm EST. the night kill was revealed at 6:22 pm EST. the very next post after that reveal by any player was this:

Spoiler: show

First off, WTF, a surprising NK indeed. RIP TinyBubbles, hope to get to play with you again soon.

Secondly, I've mulled over it, and I'm pretty sure I'm wrong about splints. Where does that leave us? I want to look at Roxy, but I don't know where to go thereafter. Discuss.

Be back later.

so it was definitely an extremely abrupt reversal. and MP is not easy to shake from his suspicions -- especially not without input from other people. left to his own thinking, i would never expect this. so i agree that it supports the notion of an investigative role. moreover:

Spoiler: show

Seriously, everyone, G-Man is fucking faking this shit. Let's be honest here.

- If he were cursed, it's highly dubious that it would have taken effect as early as Day 1, before any night actions could be submitted. It also cannot be due to the D0 poll because literally NO ONE else has had this problem, and many others voted the same option as he did.
- There is no apparent role on either the civilian or mafia team that would have to be cursed as such.

If there even is an explanation otherwise that would cause him to be cursed for all 4 cycles, why not Day 0?

If there even is an explanation otherwise that jives with ALL OF THAT, then he would have broken or failed the curse EASILY with his most recent pictures interrogating DDL. I've never seen that unpunished from a host. If I were hosting, that would be a violation.

Therefore, G-Man does not have to post in all pictures.

He is therefore a mafia.

I have some guesses:

- He's Adam Smith, the invisible hand, which makes him unable to talk directly.
- He's the Ludwig guy who only talks in the night, so maybe he can't talk directly in the thread (though he's still posting pictures in the night so I dunno).

He is not Adam Smith. Even if he was, that would be a ridiculous posting restriction. He also posted during Day 0, which is key.

MP's only mention of Adam Smith after DDL's Bubbles theory was to say that someone else definitively is not him. so that's interesting too.

before that, MP carried on this discussion with splints and others about Adam Smith and the risks of outing that player in light of the stolen Malthus kill.

also of note was the Night 1 kill of Epignosis. Adam Smith used Elohcin's role on Epignosis -- and MP was quite vocally suspicious of both of them.

this is compelling stuff i admit. but it's also still conjecture and dangerous to rely upon too heavily. i'd invite the input of sanmateo here most of all, because he suspects splints more than anyone else.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

my voting inclinations have shifted toward G-Man. the entire "you're a coward if you don't kill me" gambit strikes me as nonsense. and frankly, with Vompatti around i don't know what choice we have. he said he'd pile all his voting powers onto G-Man in LyLo if he can and i completely believe him. if it's a mislynch then it needs to happen now and not then.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

imagine being stuck in a LyLo with G-Man and Vompatti.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hosts:

some food for thought. i don't actually demand a response to this; it's just something to consider (if you haven't already). in most games, if a 3 vs 1 "LyLo" phase ends in a lynched townie, then the game is over. obviously the lynch makes it 2 vs 1, and the night kill makes it 1 vs 1. ballgame, mafia wins.

that might not necessarily be true in this game. 1 vs 1 might still be winnable for town because of guns and butter. just something to chew on.

[sanmateo]

this would be better answered by sanmateo himself. sanmateo: i saw you stop by the thread a few times without posting, but i don't remember exactly when that was. were you aware of the suspicions being voiced about you at the end of Day 6? and of DDL's willingness to town read you?

yes, i was aware i was likely going to be lynched today or at least it seemed that way at the end of night 6, ddl and you were the only ones who didnt call me scum at that point and yours was tongue-in-cheek or at least thats what i thought

[sanmateo]

looking into MP as either Adam Smith or Akerlof...

Spoiler: show

On that note, I've said everything I need to for the Night, this time for certain.

Again, I understand how you feel, splints, I've been there when I've overextended myself and invested a lot into a game emotionally and time-wise; hell, I've done that this game.

I want you to know that I'm willing to take a step back and consider every possibility, even that you're a civilian, but at the moment, my rainbow reads as previously stated still stand.

MP's last post about splints on Night 3. it came at 2:53 pm EST. the night kill was revealed at 6:22 pm EST. the very next post after that reveal by any player was this:

Spoiler: show

First off, WTF, a surprising NK indeed. RIP TinyBubbles, hope to get to play with you again soon.

Secondly, I've mulled over it, and I'm pretty sure I'm wrong about splints. Where does that leave us? I want to look at Roxy, but I don't know where to go thereafter. Discuss.

Be back later.

so it was definitely an extremely abrupt reversal. and MP is not easy to shake from his suspicions -- especially not without input from other people. left to his own thinking, i would never expect this. so i agree that it supports the notion of an investigative role. moreover:

Spoiler: show

Seriously, everyone, G-Man is fucking faking this shit. Let's be honest here.

- If he were cursed, it's highly dubious that it would have taken effect as early as Day 1, before any night actions could be submitted. It also cannot be due to the D0 poll because literally NO ONE else has had this problem, and many others voted the same option as he did.
- There is no apparent role on either the civilian or mafia team that would have to be cursed as such.

If there even is an explanation otherwise that would cause him to be cursed for all 4 cycles, why not Day 0?

If there even is an explanation otherwise that jives with ALL OF THAT, then he would have broken or failed the curse EASILY with his most recent pictures interrogating DDL. I've never seen that unpunished from a host. If I were hosting, that would be a violation.

Therefore, G-Man does not have to post in all pictures.

He is therefore a mafia.

I have some guesses:

- He's Adam Smith, the invisible hand, which makes him unable to talk directly.
- He's the Ludwig guy who only talks in the night, so maybe he can't talk directly in the thread (though he's still posting pictures in the night so I dunno).

He is not Adam Smith. Even if he was, that would be a ridiculous posting restriction. He also posted during Day 0, which is key.

MP's only mention of Adam Smith after DDL's Bubbles theory was to say that someone else definitively is not him. so that's interesting too.

before that, MP carried on this discussion with splints and others about Adam Smith and the risks of outing that player in light of the stolen Malthus kill.

also of note was the Night 1 kill of Epignosis. Adam Smith used Elohcin's role on Epignosis -- and MP was quite vocally suspicious of both of them.

this is compelling stuff i admit. but it's also still conjecture and dangerous to rely upon too heavily. i'd invite the input of sanmateo here most of all, because he suspects splints more than anyone else.

i don't think he was adam smith because that would not really explain his reversal on fingersplints, i think him as akerlof is a valid theory tho. he did drop a few hints towards having a pr throughout dogpeegate.

i'm gonna vote in a couple hours, leaning heavily towards g-man now

[G-Man]

ftr i have a lynch stop which i'll probably use if i'm about to be lynched, i see why some people think im suss but we're 5 vs 1 and i'm a townie

ftr i have a lynch stop which i'll probably use if i'm about to be lynched, i see why some people think im suss but we're 5 vs 1 and i'm a townie

i hope you didn't already buy that. because the components required to purchase it could be used much more effectively in a different way.

ugh jay why do you want me to try? it only makes being wrong more embarrassing

gonna case them later today/early tomorrow

i realize most of you have moved on to more elaborate ways of casing players but im a simple country boy so here is my limited edition fingersplints ISO, sorry if this is all stuff i already said on day 4

Spoiler: show

Anyway, I am leaning civ on Epi, Golden, MM, Splints, and Jimmy. I am not sure about San, Sloo, DDL, MP, and BR.

BR's defense of MP definitely caught my eye. Especially in a one mafia set up. If she was bad, I mean he could be a indy but she would know he was more likely to be good.

ftr the post she's referring to:

I see that DDL thinks all those who've been posting tonight look like town. I disagree, but not only that, I highly doubt that none of the mafia are talking. I just can't see that being the case. Honestly, I see MP's over-helpful behavior as suspicious. I know we have a lot of new players and he wants to be helpful, but there's just something fishy about it.

I really don't see MP as being overly helpful. I see it more as him excited about the new players and helping them out. I would expect this behaviour from MP and I would expect you to see this as well.

this is the first time she mentioned black rock in what would be a constant "aggressive" tone between em thru the first days of the game

First off, I did not "no u" BR as I made my suspicion first. After that she then said she was watching me. Not that she was suspicious. Just watching. How the fuck is that "100% no u"
Her response did not satisfy me because it was basically a play for emotion like when she said something about how she thought I would know her better. This is something I would expect of baddie BR. Plus I now think she didn't mean to defend MP, so said she didn't, and then now she did and is backtracking.

I'll comment to the rest of MPs post later but I'm voting him now.
this feigned indignition has become pretty standard for MP. I can't give him a free pass again for this

see this type of thing still bothers me, a lot of you seemed to move on but she really went after black rock and voted for someone else, something she did again on day 3. in day 2, the only time she voted for br, elohcin's lynch was basically already decided. it looks like bussing imo

5 votes for Golden? What the sodding hell?

You and bass have votes.

I'd love to hear Rox's opinion on Bass. She knows him well

first time she mentions roxy

Has anyone considered that G-Man is pulling a gambit, isn't actually cursed, and is skating by on Day 1?

Why did a couple of players automatically dismiss any future suspicion of him assuming he's cursed?

Nothing to find him suspicious of today and don't like to vote cursed players. He doesn't get a free pass the whole game though.

first interaction with notoriously elusive player g-man, not sure what to think of it but i think there's something significant here as she has indeed turned on him thru the last few phases, specially after dog pee gate. at least she has been consistent and #transparent with her interactions towards g-man thru the game

Maybe I am a little bit clouded by my last experience with a civvie Elo in Roger Rabbit.

have you noticed similarities between the Elo of this game and the Elo of that game?

Yes. I feel like it is more similar to her most recent baddie game I can remember.
Also, I feel like I have suspected Elo a lot for bandwagoning. So while her vote is weird I am not sure that it is that weird for Elo. And I am a bit wary that no one so many people seem to be ok with lynching her.

linki @ Sloonei - Bass is Roxy's son, and that is why I asked her opinion of him earlier. She can read him very well, so if she says he is alright I believe it for now.

Really? I guess I am reading her different then you guys. I feel like she is at least trying to address the suspicions

she really distanced herslef from the elo lynch, looking at that tally 2 of the 3 known scums did so too and bass only voted for elo when a few players had already said "well my vote doesnt matter at this point so im going to vote for this bandwagon", this is WIFOM but im not sure if scum would collectively decide for all of its members to vote away from a player they assume to be town

f but i can't help but be concerned about a player with one suspicious encounter early in the game and nothing else since other than a little detached commentary and off-topic posting.

I think she might be busy and bad.

idk if this post is serious but it is about br, odd thing to say

Imo we should estabilish a G-Man thereshold.

If you are posting less than G-Man, then your activity is not acceptable.

(just kidding, I know real life happens)

I think it's harder to post as we have. While Gman has to find pictures; A lot are repeat. If he is bad he doesn't have to really push for lynches, and he isn't under much scrutiny.

transparent

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 46#p144846

this is her responding to a sloonei case, i'm not really sure what to make of her theories about mp/br but it does seem to be an intricate way to establish br as her most suspected player while side-eyeing mp. not familiar with her meta and it may be down to that but this doesnt seem organic to me, there's a lot of discussion about g-man which idk what to make of either
one thing i dont like is that she ends her post by saying "idk u" when asked who is scum

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 51#p144851

I was going to answer, but I'll let Rox take care of that one. Was it me that was answering for other people before? It probably was.

roxy and splints' interactions were like the polar opposite of roxy and br's. which is what i've come to expect from scum teams, where they bus one of their teammates while being cordial with another

Thanks, sanmateo. I look forward to hearing your answers to other questions and what you think of others as well.

Sloonei, so I am looking through splints's posts again because I'm revisiting my suspicion of her, and I'm uncovering again that she's been issuing a lot of wishywashy statements and I did find it notable that she couldn't even name a top suspect when I asked her yesterday (but then went on to say she still really suspects BR). I'd like to amend my post to say that she might be my 3rd suspect (pushing her back up again), but I'm not certain just yet.

I think you should reconsider who you call wishy washy when you have been drastically up and down in your suspicions. You are pressuring me to name more suspicions. I have and if that isn't good enough for you so be it.

I suspect BR for the defense of MP. A bunch of you didn't suspect it because you trust MP and all suspect Elo, but I understood what she was saying about MP. She wasn't calling him "mean", and I felt she was trying to be tactful about it, but he exploded at Epi and played the victim. (His word choice. Not mine) I feel like BR jumped on that and defended MP. I have been wishy washy about MP because as I said I'm not going to waste a shit ton of time debating how I feel about a player when my read on them is pretty dependant on someone else.

I'm voting BR now.

idk if these votes are supposed to be misdirections or something, where you argue against a player and then you vote for someone else. BUT WAIT

If he is bad, he could be avoiding casting a vote for Elo so it doesn't look bad if she flips civvie.

huh. this just seems dishonest, he mentioned her as his supect on day 1 but it's not like he was particularly pushing people to vote for elo at that point

How long will this activity be? It's already 11 here

How many people missed the vote?
I also think that her team would be more likely to have distanced from her since she was so obviously going down.

She was the Serial Killer.

I only really know the two civvie role/abilities I have had.
so still good result just not the one I thought a few moments ago. I have to go figure out if it has been addressed if the kill goes to baddies

this is something

You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

How many baddies do you think there are MP?

wifom is an overused term but i think it fits right here

My suspicion of aether has been growing. Like I said before I don't see how every role not being revealed is enough to want to quit a game when you guys have a role that hides role reveals. So that is a possibility. I also brought up earlier how I believe mafia likes to comment on roles and the like to seem to be contributing without really. So I think the second was more likely the intention, while pinpointing a valuable role would have been a nice side effect.

to be fair, the role you're referring to may have only appeared on RYM once or twice ever. it's not commonplace and i don't think i've ever played with one in a game myself. however, i highlighted the point in your quote that i think is most salient. i agree, and a parallel can be drawn that the RYMers might be more familiar with -- in our culture, this is usually expressed by fake-contributing mafia in the form of setup speculation (like guessing at how many scum there are, or what roles there might be, and how the game might be balanced), because on RYM we usually play in closed setups. so you're right to raise this point i think, fingersplints.

this is a reasonable explanation, but not one she provided. It feels like she ignored it hoping that suspicion would drop. (Another thing I associate as baddie behavior)

in hindsight (lame i kno) aether coming back after the death of the sk is understandable but i think the second post is definitely reaching at a time when aether's lynch was gaining traction, trying to add fire to that thru any means necessary is a scum-tell for me

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 03#p145803

this is a jay iso which she dismisses as being mostly wifom but she responds to it with more wifom specially when trying to explain why she would "bus" br

Also, you accuse me of tunneling when most every suspicion of me has been about my suspicion of BR. If you can figure out a way for me to defend myself without mentioning her I will, but until then yea I am going to have to talk about it a lot. This little Day 1 suspicion probably would have died down, but BR's behaviour and a couple others defense of her make me feel more strongly then ever that I am right.

BR I hope you can at least appreciate it from that perspective.

i dont know why she says the little day 1 suspicion should've died down when she was still doing the things that pinged other people, tbh i still think they're valid. specially since she never voted for br when it mattered

Not anything particularly.

But since you're asking, is there anyone you're suspecting besides BR?

I voted for aether. I made you a list of most to least suspicious. A whole bunch in the middle I don't know if I could really justify why I ranked one higher then the other. just gut feels I guess

Black Rock
Acrosstheaether
birdwithteeth11
Turnip Head
MovingPictures07
TinyBubbles
sanmateo
Dragon D. Luffy
JaggedJimmyJay
G-Man
Bass_the_Clever
Vompatti
Roxy
fingersplints

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p146152

this 2 posts bothered me a lot and are the main reason fingersplints is my main suspect, her reasoning never convinced me either- http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 01#p146201

I'm not taking it personally. For example if you call me a liar I do not think you think I personally lie. Only that I am a liar within the game.
I am bothered at the implication that I am playing wrong as I have been feeling that all around this entire game, but that's all
I've been playing for enough years to know when I am fighting a losing battle. I have other games to play as well and this one is draining me too much. So I wanted you guys to know where to go when I am gone

she seemed to be the main suspect until this post, here and in a few previous posts she asks that people look at mp after she's lynched. it was real weird that both changed their mind as soon as day 4 started but seeing how mp was the first to do so, splints' whole caseon him reads as omgus, she later said this which is like, why
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 66#p146966

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 4#p146774- she believes g-man
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p146888 - then she doesnt

I forgot/missed he replaced bwt. I never felt great about bwt, so I don't feel great about Golden 2.0

she never really mentioned bwt before this as far as i can tell

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p146988 - i dont like nk speculation but i figure this might as well be worth pointing out, ddl was one of the few players to hold on to any suspicion of splints after day 3

I am wondering a bit why she wasn't more defensive of bass? If she was defensive of other civvies in thread (like me) then why didn't she defend him more when I gave her plenty of opportunity to.

this isnt something a scum would post imo, i hadnt seen it before and it makes me doubt it i was wrong all along and whether i just wasted a solid hour of my life

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 90#p148690 - i dont think i adressed this but g-man literally told me to vote bass, he even flipped me off!

what's left on her post history is the aether lynch which she really pursued, seems like town play tbh. i wish i could respond to whatever suspicions she has of me but i'm not sure what they are other than that last post i linked. i'm not sure what to think, her posts before day the bass lynch all read like scum and afterwards they all read like town, sigh

i'm leaning more towards g-man now. i'm not doing an iso outside rym ever again

top 3 reasons to not lynch me:

#1 - i'm town

please try harder. i might be willing to believe you, but nobody else here knows you at all. you gotta convince everyone.

top 3 reasons to not lynch me:

#1 - i'm town

please try harder. i might be willing to believe you, but nobody else here knows you at all. you gotta convince everyone.

i think this exercise is basically wifom, isnt it? idk

#1 - the whole case against me amounts to me not being in the right bandwagons, which is something scum can easily avoid. it's not like any of the players alive were integral parts of every single one of those.

#2 - i was right about elo and i pursued that lynch. all the scums we've caught distanced theirselves from it because being on the wrong side of a townie lynch on day 2 would mean you catch a lot attention early on.

#3 - i promise yall i'm starting to try again, and it would be better for town not to lynch me today as it would be a wasted day

#4 - i'm the underdog

i'm not inclined to vote for you sanmateo. if you're acting then bravo. much like the last game you modded on RYM, in this late game scenario under the current circumstances i don't really trust my own analysis anymore. i am going to respect my gut, and my gut is telling me you're town.

i don't quite have a ProFiction to go after this time though. i am also leaning toward a G-Man vote, but i can absolutely see it being splints.

my voting inclinations have shifted toward G-Man. the entire "you're a coward if you don't kill me" gambit strikes me as nonsense. and frankly, with Vompatti around i don't know what choice we have. he said he'd pile all his voting powers onto G-Man in LyLo if he can and i completely believe him. if it's a mislynch then it needs to happen now and not then.

imagine being stuck in a LyLo with G-Man and Vompatti.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

sanmateo, did you already purchase the lynch stop? If so, why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also G-Man that doesn't make any sense. If we force sanmateo to lynch stop then we learn NOTHING. We don't gain any extra "chance". We just dwindle the numbers and leave ourselves vulnerable to any extra kill Solow may have.

His items are improved too, whatever that means.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I also think Solow anticipated a sanmateo lynch and tried to leave us to the task. That's why you reassess.

And who is pressing the issue on sanmateo now? He's such a low-hanging fruit.

[sanmateo]

sorry chief, i make my own path

or something

[sanmateo]

ive had my lynch stop for most of the game now, i didnt purchase it. i dont think it would be the end of the world if i used it today, i like 2v1 more than 3v1 but thats just me. in any case this would only matter if there was no chance we could lynch the scum today, which i dont think is a position we are in.

i'm voting g-man now, not sure if i'll be back at all before the deadline but i'll try to check on the thread

[JaggedJimmyJay]

ive had my lynch stop for most of the game now, i didnt purchase it.

??

well don't answer obviously if it'd violate a rule

[sanmateo]

yes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

are you able to answer this:

when you say "most" of the game, is that a literal truth or a vague wording?

[sanmateo]

i'm still not sure what the exact rules are but most of the game means ~70% of the game

[JaggedJimmyJay]

probably best to not discuss it further.

if it's not G-Man or splints, where do you look next?

[sanmateo]

young vomp
young jay
then young golden

i really have to go now BYE

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i'm going to be away for a short while myself. i ask of both splints and Golden that when you stop in and put whatever content into the thread -- please don't vote until we've had a chance to talk it out. unless time absolutely won't permit.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

*long fart noise*

[Tangrowth]

*jumps up and down*

REZZ THE SOCK, REZZ HIM NOW!

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I have the opinion that a dragon would be a lot more useful in the current situation than a sock. At least the former can breath fire or something.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll rezz Golden 1.0.

[Tangrowth]

I have the opinion that a dragon would be a lot more useful in the current situation than a sock. At least the former can breath fire or something.

I'm a magic sock. I can also breathe fire. Hell, I can type!

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also my nickname is a pun with the names of the man who will be the king of pirates (Monkey D. Luffy), and the leader of the revolutionary army (Monkey D. Dragon). Two very dangerous guys, working together for town.

You can't get any more useful than that.

[Tangrowth]

Dammit.

You've won this round, DDL.

Relish the victory while you can.