Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

So. Alive people.

Let's lynch G-Man eh?

[G-Man]

Also G-Man that doesn't make any sense. If we force sanmateo to lynch stop then we learn NOTHING. We don't gain any extra "chance". We just dwindle the numbers and leave ourselves vulnerable to any extra kill Solow may have.

His items are improved too, whatever that means.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We have two chances either way. I might be willing to entertain the idea of forcing a no lynch to shrink the suspect pool... In a game where a double kill isn't such a real threat. We should be treating that as a foregone conclusion.

[acrosstheaether]

Baymax death scene still makes me cry :'(

[fingersplints]

hey guys, sorry have been out all day. haven't even read the thread yet

[G-Man]

Baymax death scene still makes me cry :'(

[acrosstheaether]

Rezz Baymax pls!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

G-Man, do you believe Vomps when he threatens to unload all of his voting power on you at LyLo?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Baymax: this role is immune to night kills because no one in their right mind would kill Baymax.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

hey guys, sorry have been out all day. haven't even read the thread yet

may i recommend one thing: you'll find a big case against you presented by sanmateo. if you're going to respond to it, only respond to the most important things. because i don't think you're likely to be lynched today anyway and we need your input on who will be.

[fingersplints]

I'm still probably voting sanmateo btw. I do not believe him at all. I don't think the hosts are just randomly handing out lynch stops. His defenses today have been "don't lynch me I am bad" and then when asked where he would look next if wrong about both me and gman, he lists every other player. 'lynch everyone but me!' ya ok

I don't think there is anything really new for me to address in the ISO. But if there is anything specific let me know.

i realize most of you have moved on to more elaborate ways of casing players but im a simple country boy so here is my limited edition fingersplints ISO, sorry if this is all stuff i already said on day 4

Spoiler: show

Anyway, I am leaning civ on Epi, Golden, MM, Splints, and Jimmy. I am not sure about San, Sloo, DDL, MP, and BR.

BR's defense of MP definitely caught my eye. Especially in a one mafia set up. If she was bad, I mean he could be a indy but she would know he was more likely to be good.

ftr the post she's referring to:

I see that DDL thinks all those who've been posting tonight look like town. I disagree, but not only that, I highly doubt that none of the mafia are talking. I just can't see that being the case. Honestly, I see MP's over-helpful behavior as suspicious. I know we have a lot of new players and he wants to be helpful, but there's just something fishy about it.

I really don't see MP as being overly helpful. I see it more as him excited about the new players and helping them out. I would expect this behaviour from MP and I would expect you to see this as well.

this is the first time she mentioned black rock in what would be a constant "aggressive" tone between em thru the first days of the game

First off, I did not "no u" BR as I made my suspicion first. After that she then said she was watching me. Not that she was suspicious. Just watching. How the fuck is that "100% no u"
Her response did not satisfy me because it was basically a play for emotion like when she said something about how she thought I would know her better. This is something I would expect of baddie BR. Plus I now think she didn't mean to defend MP, so said she didn't, and then now she did and is backtracking.

I'll comment to the rest of MPs post later but I'm voting him now.
this feigned indignition has become pretty standard for MP. I can't give him a free pass again for this

see this type of thing still bothers me, a lot of you seemed to move on but she really went after black rock and voted for someone else, something she did again on day 3. in day 2, the only time she voted for br, elohcin's lynch was basically already decided. it looks like bussing imo

5 votes for Golden? What the sodding hell?

You and bass have votes.

I'd love to hear Rox's opinion on Bass. She knows him well

first time she mentions roxy

Has anyone considered that G-Man is pulling a gambit, isn't actually cursed, and is skating by on Day 1?

Why did a couple of players automatically dismiss any future suspicion of him assuming he's cursed?

Nothing to find him suspicious of today and don't like to vote cursed players. He doesn't get a free pass the whole game though.

first interaction with notoriously elusive player g-man, not sure what to think of it but i think there's something significant here as she has indeed turned on him thru the last few phases, specially after dog pee gate. at least she has been consistent and #transparent with her interactions towards g-man thru the game

Maybe I am a little bit clouded by my last experience with a civvie Elo in Roger Rabbit.

have you noticed similarities between the Elo of this game and the Elo of that game?

Yes. I feel like it is more similar to her most recent baddie game I can remember.
Also, I feel like I have suspected Elo a lot for bandwagoning. So while her vote is weird I am not sure that it is that weird for Elo. And I am a bit wary that no one so many people seem to be ok with lynching her.

linki @ Sloonei - Bass is Roxy's son, and that is why I asked her opinion of him earlier. She can read him very well, so if she says he is alright I believe it for now.

Really? I guess I am reading her different then you guys. I feel like she is at least trying to address the suspicions

she really distanced herslef from the elo lynch, looking at that tally 2 of the 3 known scums did so too and bass only voted for elo when a few players had already said "well my vote doesnt matter at this point so im going to vote for this bandwagon", this is WIFOM but im not sure if scum would collectively decide for all of its members to vote away from a player they assume to be town

f but i can't help but be concerned about a player with one suspicious encounter early in the game and nothing else since other than a little detached commentary and off-topic posting.

I think she might be busy and bad.

idk if this post is serious but it is about br, odd thing to say

Imo we should estabilish a G-Man thereshold.

If you are posting less than G-Man, then your activity is not acceptable.

(just kidding, I know real life happens)

I think it's harder to post as we have. While Gman has to find pictures; A lot are repeat. If he is bad he doesn't have to really push for lynches, and he isn't under much scrutiny.

transparent

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 46#p144846

this is her responding to a sloonei case, i'm not really sure what to make of her theories about mp/br but it does seem to be an intricate way to establish br as her most suspected player while side-eyeing mp. not familiar with her meta and it may be down to that but this doesnt seem organic to me, there's a lot of discussion about g-man which idk what to make of either
one thing i dont like is that she ends her post by saying "idk u" when asked who is scum

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 51#p144851

I was going to answer, but I'll let Rox take care of that one. Was it me that was answering for other people before? It probably was.

roxy and splints' interactions were like the polar opposite of roxy and br's. which is what i've come to expect from scum teams, where they bus one of their teammates while being cordial with another

Thanks, sanmateo. I look forward to hearing your answers to other questions and what you think of others as well.

Sloonei, so I am looking through splints's posts again because I'm revisiting my suspicion of her, and I'm uncovering again that she's been issuing a lot of wishywashy statements and I did find it notable that she couldn't even name a top suspect when I asked her yesterday (but then went on to say she still really suspects BR). I'd like to amend my post to say that she might be my 3rd suspect (pushing her back up again), but I'm not certain just yet.

I think you should reconsider who you call wishy washy when you have been drastically up and down in your suspicions. You are pressuring me to name more suspicions. I have and if that isn't good enough for you so be it.

I suspect BR for the defense of MP. A bunch of you didn't suspect it because you trust MP and all suspect Elo, but I understood what she was saying about MP. She wasn't calling him "mean", and I felt she was trying to be tactful about it, but he exploded at Epi and played the victim. (His word choice. Not mine) I feel like BR jumped on that and defended MP. I have been wishy washy about MP because as I said I'm not going to waste a shit ton of time debating how I feel about a player when my read on them is pretty dependant on someone else.

I'm voting BR now.

idk if these votes are supposed to be misdirections or something, where you argue against a player and then you vote for someone else. BUT WAIT

If he is bad, he could be avoiding casting a vote for Elo so it doesn't look bad if she flips civvie.

huh. this just seems dishonest, he mentioned her as his supect on day 1 but it's not like he was particularly pushing people to vote for elo at that point

How long will this activity be? It's already 11 here

How many people missed the vote?
I also think that her team would be more likely to have distanced from her since she was so obviously going down.

She was the Serial Killer.

I only really know the two civvie role/abilities I have had.
so still good result just not the one I thought a few moments ago. I have to go figure out if it has been addressed if the kill goes to baddies

this is something

You guys really think that both me and BR are bad?

How many baddies do you think there are MP?

wifom is an overused term but i think it fits right here

My suspicion of aether has been growing. Like I said before I don't see how every role not being revealed is enough to want to quit a game when you guys have a role that hides role reveals. So that is a possibility. I also brought up earlier how I believe mafia likes to comment on roles and the like to seem to be contributing without really. So I think the second was more likely the intention, while pinpointing a valuable role would have been a nice side effect.

to be fair, the role you're referring to may have only appeared on RYM once or twice ever. it's not commonplace and i don't think i've ever played with one in a game myself. however, i highlighted the point in your quote that i think is most salient. i agree, and a parallel can be drawn that the RYMers might be more familiar with -- in our culture, this is usually expressed by fake-contributing mafia in the form of setup speculation (like guessing at how many scum there are, or what roles there might be, and how the game might be balanced), because on RYM we usually play in closed setups. so you're right to raise this point i think, fingersplints.

this is a reasonable explanation, but not one she provided. It feels like she ignored it hoping that suspicion would drop. (Another thing I associate as baddie behavior)

in hindsight (lame i kno) aether coming back after the death of the sk is understandable but i think the second post is definitely reaching at a time when aether's lynch was gaining traction, trying to add fire to that thru any means necessary is a scum-tell for me

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 03#p145803

this is a jay iso which she dismisses as being mostly wifom but she responds to it with more wifom specially when trying to explain why she would "bus" br

Also, you accuse me of tunneling when most every suspicion of me has been about my suspicion of BR. If you can figure out a way for me to defend myself without mentioning her I will, but until then yea I am going to have to talk about it a lot. This little Day 1 suspicion probably would have died down, but BR's behaviour and a couple others defense of her make me feel more strongly then ever that I am right.

BR I hope you can at least appreciate it from that perspective.

i dont know why she says the little day 1 suspicion should've died down when she was still doing the things that pinged other people, tbh i still think they're valid. specially since she never voted for br when it mattered

Not anything particularly.

But since you're asking, is there anyone you're suspecting besides BR?

I voted for aether. I made you a list of most to least suspicious. A whole bunch in the middle I don't know if I could really justify why I ranked one higher then the other. just gut feels I guess

Black Rock
Acrosstheaether
birdwithteeth11
Turnip Head
MovingPictures07
TinyBubbles
sanmateo
Dragon D. Luffy
JaggedJimmyJay
G-Man
Bass_the_Clever
Vompatti
Roxy
fingersplints

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p146152

this 2 posts bothered me a lot and are the main reason fingersplints is my main suspect, her reasoning never convinced me either- http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 01#p146201

I'm not taking it personally. For example if you call me a liar I do not think you think I personally lie. Only that I am a liar within the game.
I am bothered at the implication that I am playing wrong as I have been feeling that all around this entire game, but that's all
I've been playing for enough years to know when I am fighting a losing battle. I have other games to play as well and this one is draining me too much. So I wanted you guys to know where to go when I am gone

she seemed to be the main suspect until this post, here and in a few previous posts she asks that people look at mp after she's lynched. it was real weird that both changed their mind as soon as day 4 started but seeing how mp was the first to do so, splints' whole caseon him reads as omgus, she later said this which is like, why
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 66#p146966

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 4#p146774- she believes g-man
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p146888 - then she doesnt

I forgot/missed he replaced bwt. I never felt great about bwt, so I don't feel great about Golden 2.0

she never really mentioned bwt before this as far as i can tell

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 88#p146988 - i dont like nk speculation but i figure this might as well be worth pointing out, ddl was one of the few players to hold on to any suspicion of splints after day 3

I am wondering a bit why she wasn't more defensive of bass? If she was defensive of other civvies in thread (like me) then why didn't she defend him more when I gave her plenty of opportunity to.

this isnt something a scum would post imo, i hadnt seen it before and it makes me doubt it i was wrong all along and whether i just wasted a solid hour of my life

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 90#p148690 - i dont think i adressed this but g-man literally told me to vote bass, he even flipped me off!

what's left on her post history is the aether lynch which she really pursued, seems like town play tbh. i wish i could respond to whatever suspicions she has of me but i'm not sure what they are other than that last post i linked. i'm not sure what to think, her posts before day the bass lynch all read like scum and afterwards they all read like town, sigh

i'm leaning more towards g-man now. i'm not doing an iso outside rym ever again

If you actually look at his ISO though, he says "see this type of thing still bothers me, a lot of you seemed to move on but she really went after black rock and voted for someone else, " but it seems a bit weird to me that that is the supposed driving force of his suspicion on me yet he is doing exactly that now. "i'm leaning more towards g-man now. i'm not doing an iso outside rym ever again!" None of it reads geniuine to me. It reads like he is echoing off suspicions OTHERS have said about me days ago.

You asked me to again address my suspicion of you (" i wish i could respond to whatever suspicions she has of me but i'm not sure what they are other than that last post i linked") The last post you linked wasn't the only time I mentioned you. It was just the only one you choose to mention. Here I again accuse you of defending bass. Bass also called me mafia in that quick fire reading and I think you were both trying to divert attention to me. Here I call you out for the timing of TH's kill specifically after trying to call attention to you.

I feel like you have been kind of blendy and below the radar, and playing up the newbie/wrong card a lot, which are both things baddies like to do.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm still probably voting sanmateo btw. I do not believe him at all. I don't think the hosts are just randomly handing out lynch stops.

you don't think any of the town roles suit this claim?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

also when he listed "every other player" it was in order of priority. he said he'd lynch Vomps first if neither you nor G-Man. i feel like i have to defend him here because i don't think he's coming back this phase.

[fingersplints]

I'm still probably voting sanmateo btw. I do not believe him at all. I don't think the hosts are just randomly handing out lynch stops.

you don't think any of the town roles suit this claim?

Buying stuff can suit that claim too. It doesn't clear him for me. I also think there is a strong possibility that it is a scare tactic. What if he is bluffing about even having a lynch stop?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm still probably voting sanmateo btw. I do not believe him at all. I don't think the hosts are just randomly handing out lynch stops.

you don't think any of the town roles suit this claim?

Buying stuff can suit that claim too. It doesn't clear him for me. I also think there is a strong possibility that it is a scare tactic. What if he is bluffing about even having a lynch stop?

that's the thing. he said he didn't buy it. but i see at least one role (a couple actually) that could suit the claim. i don't want to point to them if it'll violate the rules (this whole info dumping thing is still hard for me to fully understand).

it could be a scare tactic, i don't deny that. i ask you this though: if he is mafia and he can delay his own demise... does it do him any actual good? he gets lynched on Day 8 instead and still loses.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you actually look at his ISO though, he says "see this type of thing still bothers me, a lot of you seemed to move on but she really went after black rock and voted for someone else, " but it seems a bit weird to me that that is the supposed driving force of his suspicion on me yet he is doing exactly that now. "i'm leaning more towards g-man now. i'm not doing an iso outside rym ever again!" None of it reads geniuine to me. It reads like he is echoing off suspicions OTHERS have said about me days ago.

a couple points:

1. sanmateo did clarify in the same ISO towards the end that your conduct during and after the Bass lynch looked town to him. that would explain then why he might view you as suspicious but still favor G-Man for the lynch (because he has nothing town-like about G-Man to give him pause).

2. the suspicions he stated in that ISO are not new for him. he's been calling you one of his top suspects ever since the Black Rock lynch, and he's been consistent about why.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

additionally splints,

would you agree that we came into Day 7 looking very much like we'd lynch sanmateo? and then the only player left who was still on his side was night killed. that doesn't feel like a setup to you at all? like a different mafioso is counting on a sanmateo lynch to waltz into LyLo?

[Golden]

For me, the biggest point in splints favour (for being town) was MP's sudden flip on her alignment. It seemed so sudden and severe that I found it notable.

this may demand further investigation. this would mean you suspected MP had role-produced information that made him change his mind, right? the following roles might be compatible with that:

Adam Smith
Ludwig von Mises
George Akerlof

i don't think he was von Mises. i could maybe see Adam Smith, but i'd need to look back at how he reacted to DDL's propositions re: Bubbles on Day 4 (and Smith's role is the least effective of the three for determining who is who, i think). if he was Akerlof, i'd expect that to reflect elsewhere in his post history too beyond just the splints reversal. so it demands further digging.

Another possibility is that MP was contacted by Mises who had already previously visited splints, or there could be something else to it like winning a prize in a nash contest. I just thought it was so abrupt as to suggest that somehow he had come upon something he felt was proof he was wrong.

[fingersplints]

And the baddie role left is item related too.

It would do him loads of good. Let's say he is the baddie left, and today we lynch... vomps? (it doesn't really matter who because he is the baddie in this situation) Then there is me, Gman, Golden, JJJ, and sanmateo left. He kills at night successfully. 3 civvies left. He successfully lynches another (perhaps G who has lots of suspicion still). 2 civvies left. He NK's one. One civvie vs One baddie. And then if he DOES have the lynch switch he has won. Even if he doesn't have the lynch switch he has a 50 % chance of winning (unless he has some other items then his chance is higher!). That is LOADS more better then his odds atm. So yes, I think this does him loads of good.

[G-Man]

G-Man, do you believe Vomps when he threatens to unload all of his voting power on you at LyLo?

also when he listed "every other player" it was in order of priority. he said he'd lynch Vomps first if neither you nor G-Man. i feel like i have to defend him here because i don't think he's coming back this phase.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i don't know your meta G-Man. i've played a good number of games with sanmateo. and he didn't leave because he felt like it. he had somewhere to be/something to do. obviously that could have been a lie, but mafia is about reading those kinds of things and making a judgment call.

he isn't on RYM right now either.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And the baddie role left is item related too.

It would do him loads of good. Let's say he is the baddie left, and today we lynch... vomps? (it doesn't really matter who because he is the baddie in this situation) Then there is me, Gman, Golden, JJJ, and sanmateo left. He kills at night successfully. 3 civvies left. He successfully lynches another (perhaps G who has lots of suspicion still). 2 civvies left. He NK's one. One civvie vs One baddie. And then if he DOES have the lynch switch he has won. Even if he doesn't have the lynch switch he has a 50 % chance of winning (unless he has some other items then his chance is higher!). That is LOADS more better then his odds atm. So yes, I think this does him loads of good.

with that concern in mind, what then do you think of G-Man's recent proposals? he wants to force sanmateo to use the lynch stop to leave us in a 4 vs 1 tomorrow.

[Golden]

this would be better answered by sanmateo himself. sanmateo: i saw you stop by the thread a few times without posting, but i don't remember exactly when that was. were you aware of the suspicions being voiced about you at the end of Day 6? and of DDL's willingness to town read you?

yes, i was aware i was likely going to be lynched today or at least it seemed that way at the end of night 6, ddl and you were the only ones who didnt call me scum at that point and yours was tongue-in-cheek or at least thats what i thought

Look at this...

JJ, you had pledged to vote for sanmateo by the end of day 6.

The way I'm reading this whole thing is that you are being played.

I can't help but think maybe part of your issue here is that you have a role in mind for sanmateo... I have that for g-man, which is why I'm less willing to vote that way.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

this would be better answered by sanmateo himself. sanmateo: i saw you stop by the thread a few times without posting, but i don't remember exactly when that was. were you aware of the suspicions being voiced about you at the end of Day 6? and of DDL's willingness to town read you?

yes, i was aware i was likely going to be lynched today or at least it seemed that way at the end of night 6, ddl and you were the only ones who didnt call me scum at that point and yours was tongue-in-cheek or at least thats what i thought

Look at this...

JJ, you had pledged to vote for sanmateo by the end of day 6.

The way I'm reading this whole thing is that you are being played.

could be. but what makes you think so?

[Golden]

Stuff like that post I just quoted, which is not only incorrect but also reads 'you're my only friend, JJ' to me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Stuff like that post I just quoted, which is not only incorrect but also reads 'you're my only friend, JJ' to me.

do you know what he was referring to when he asserted i was being "tongue-in-cheek"?

[Golden]

Stuff like that post I just quoted, which is not only incorrect but also reads 'you're my only friend, JJ' to me.

do you know what he was referring to when he asserted i was being "tongue-in-cheek"?

No - do you think you understand?

[acrosstheaether]

It bothers me that Golden's name is red... instead of golden...

[Golden]

Oh - he is talking about that town read that I said was ambiguous, possibly - but my point is that AFTER that... after my meaningful connections post - you said he was your first choice vote.

So, he is trying to say he was in the thread after that, but he is also trying to say your last comment on him was one that read him as town, that does not compute to me.

@aether - does it bother you that russti's name is golden, instead of rusty? We were talking about it in sign ups

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Stuff like that post I just quoted, which is not only incorrect but also reads 'you're my only friend, JJ' to me.

do you know what he was referring to when he asserted i was being "tongue-in-cheek"?

No - do you think you understand?

yes. it wasn't quite the "end" of Day 6, but it was close enough for me to understand his meaning:

Spoiler: show

Ok. Everyone post their favourite Eurovision entries for this year.

israel and serbia

also, bah.

hey sanmateo i re-read your posts and i think you're town again. or more likely town. it's alright if you've not had your best game, it happens to everyone. i haven't been that great in this game either to be honest. but i know you're a good townie when you want to be and i think you can be a big asset in this late game scenario if you are. keep the effort up muh man

why did you cange your mind tho?

because it might help motivate you to get back into sanmateo mode.

and when he suggests i was being tongue-in-cheek... he is absolutely right.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

re-read his response to my question, Golden. i didn't ask him about your post. or anything. i asked a very general question.

[Golden]

OK, yeah, but like I say that was before my case - before sanmateo's final posts on night six.

After that came this:

if i had to place my Day 7 vote now, it'd be for sanmateo.

So in a world where you gave him an opening to say he came back and read the thread after I made the meaningful connections post, and he says yes of course he did, his last apparent knowledge of your read of him is the one you made BEFORE that....

Not the one you made after.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

the point here is that on Day 6, i never read sanmateo as town. i claimed to once while he was around to get into an interaction with him, and he seemed to understand that i wasn't being honest. i don't think he ever claimed to be in the thread after your post, Golden. i didn't ask him that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

he said he was "aware he was likely being lynched", which is a general comment. he said his only defenders seemed to be DDL and maybe me if i was being serious -- that'd reflect perfectly the culture of the thread before your casing post and before i claimed i'd vote for him.

[Golden]

he said he was "aware he was likely being lynched", which is a general comment. he said his only defenders seemed to be DDL and maybe me if i was being serious -- that'd reflect perfectly the culture of the thread before your casing post and before i claimed i'd vote for him.

No it wouldn't - because before my casing post, I also read him as town, for days I read him as town. I didn't have him on my radar at all.

Do you see what I'm trying to get at?

I feel like I've gotten myself into tunnel vision mode, though, and I do think there is something to be said for the fact you are so insistent, JJ.

[Golden]

But I don't yet feel like you've understood my point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

he said he was "aware he was likely being lynched", which is a general comment. he said his only defenders seemed to be DDL and maybe me if i was being serious -- that'd reflect perfectly the culture of the thread before your casing post and before i claimed i'd vote for him.

No it wouldn't - because before my casing post, I also read him as town, for days I read him as town. I didn't have him on my radar at all.

Do you see what I'm trying to get at?

I feel like I've gotten myself into tunnel vision mode, though, and I do think there is something to be said for the fact you are so insistent, JJ.

how much did you say about sanmateo during Day 6 prior to your casing post? i don't ask because i know already -- i don't. if you said very little or nothing, then i doubt sanmateo was even conscious of your perspective. he'd definitely have been conscious of four others though:

G-Man wants him lynched.
JJJ wants him lynched.
splints wants him lynched.
DDL reads him town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

and independent of the entire sanmateo problem, here's a separate problem to consider:

do you think the culture of the thread at the end of night 6 was likely to leave the remaining mafia player anticipating a sanmateo lynch on Day 7?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i should make this clear if it isn't already. i don't want to mislead. i do not know anything. i have a strong hunch and i am pursuing it to the bitter end for two reasons:

1. if i'm right, i don't want to lynch a townie. and if it happens anyway, this conversation will be very useful to read everyone involved at LyLo.

2. if i'm wrong, i'm likely to vote with the pack anyway because separation is needed to prevent guns/butter shenanigans

[acrosstheaether]

RYM pre-game has begun!

[Golden]

I don't think I've explained myself well enough and I think you are missing my point.

You keep going on about the state of the thread at the end of the night but I'm trying to explain why I don't think that is a relevant consideration when it comes to sanmateo. I mean yes I agree at the end of the night sanmateo was clearly going to be lynched...

Before my post, I think sanmateo only need see one person as against him - fingersplints. I went back and read everyone else's posts. There was no movement against him at all. As of when I last know sanmateo to be in the thread, the lynch does not appear to be going against him at all. In fact he appears, at best, third in line behind gman and vomps. I don't see any reason to assume this. It feels like your whole case is based on an assumption that I don't see any basis for - that the baddie would come back at the last minute and change their kill if the thread had suddenly turned against them.

I don't think I was particularly vocal about sanmateo, but I feel like I was reasonably consistent. But if you are saying 'why kill DDL when you know you are likely to be lynched and he is the only person supporting you'... What did DDL do that was so supportive of sanmateo anyway? I didn't even see that when I read back on DDL. Just a similar thing to me - green in the rainbow. I didn't look too far really, just back to the most recent time people were giving a read on sanmateo, so maybe you are seeing something before that.

I have real difficulty understanding why the stuff I found which I feel very confident in should be overturned on the off chance sanmateo turned up to the site during a period of time that there is no evidence he was here for, and as a result changed his kill target.

[fingersplints]

he said he was "aware he was likely being lynched", which is a general comment. he said his only defenders seemed to be DDL and maybe me if i was being serious -- that'd reflect perfectly the culture of the thread before your casing post and before i claimed i'd vote for him.

No it wouldn't - because before my casing post, I also read him as town, for days I read him as town. I didn't have him on my radar at all.

Do you see what I'm trying to get at?

I feel like I've gotten myself into tunnel vision mode, though, and I do think there is something to be said for the fact you are so insistent, JJ.

how much did you say about sanmateo during Day 6 prior to your casing post? i don't ask because i know already -- i don't. if you said very little or nothing, then i doubt sanmateo was even conscious of your perspective. he'd definitely have been conscious of four others though:

G-Man wants him lynched.
JJJ wants him lynched.
splints wants him lynched.
DDL reads him town.

I don't think it's fair to say I want him lynched. I want the baddie lynched, and I do agree with Golden it seems most likely you are being played. I still haven't voted because I don't want to make a rash decision. So while I am most likely to vote sanmateo, I would also consider a vote for Vomps.

I meant to check out the game on RYM. I've been avoiding signing up for another until this one is over because I got in a little over my head at the start of this game. I'm too old for 4 games. I don't know how I used to do that shit.

[Golden]

Have to head to work now, see you in about an hour.

JJ - again I know I sound hard headed and for me it is only a hunch keeping me from voting g-man too. There is a part of me that is saying 'JJ sounds really sure, take a leap of faith on him'. But I have to overrule my own gut which, when I did that case on sanmateo, it seemed so much like I had it figured, it fits with the facts to me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Day 6:

G-Man calls sanmateo his #1 suspect if aether flips town.

sanmateo has been as mafia-like as anyone since about Day 2.

I'd say more then most even.

I'm really torn here. Aether seems so bad this almost feels too easy. I don't think her defenses are great, but they feel more like she is trying more now. Could be that she is the last baddie left, so has to now.

You seem like a very nice person aether but I will probably still vote you. I'm not sure all of what you are going through, but I'm around to talk if you ever need anyone. I was in a pretty bad place a few years back, and some of the friends I made here were able to help me out of it. Sometimes just having someone to talk to helps.

DDL, what makes you lean slight town on sanmateo?

I just don't see how his bad votes really benefit mafia. The non-vote in the BR lynch would risk him a host punishment when he could have just jumped on the bandwagon and reaped the results. The Roxy vote was easy as hell for mafia to jump in since she probably told them she was leaving, and yet sanmateo decided to be the one guy who calls the attention to himself. The Bass vote was already decided at the point he voted, unless mafia used items... which they didn't. He keeps attracting heat to himself without any benefit.

It comes down that sanmateo isn't playing a safe game at all. He is tunneling hard on his gut reads, he is yelling at people he disagrees with no matter how others think well about them, and he is questioning the game. He is failing but at least he seems to be trying.

Of course it could be all an elaborate scheme, but that's WIFOM territory. I don't think he has any credibility to be a strong town read, but the fact that he hasn't spent the game pusrsuing such credibility makes me think he's unlikely to be mafia.

Night 6, prior to Golden's case:

I case sanmateo in the "Player X is mafia" method and make numerous points against him. to be continued...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

actually that isn't to be continued. nevermind that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

i was going to reference my later summary in which i placed sanmateo as the worst-looking player in light of that analysis. but that summary came after Golden's case, so for the sake of this specific context it can be omitted. i think my suspicion of him was clearly stated though in both of the quotes in that post.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Have to head to work now, see you in about an hour.

JJ - again I know I sound hard headed and for me it is only a hunch keeping me from voting g-man too. There is a part of me that is saying 'JJ sounds really sure, take a leap of faith on him'. But I have to overrule my own gut which, when I did that case on sanmateo, it seemed so much like I had it figured, it fits with the facts to me.

there's a chance both of our hunches are valid and Vompatti is just laughing at us right now. he is essentially a lurker in disguise and his participation score should suffer imo.

[Vompatti]

Have I understood correctly that sanmateo is going to stop the lynch? Now if he's a civ and has the butter required, shouldn't he be using it to remove votes from himself rather than stopping the lynch and giving the mafia at least one more kill?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Have I understood correctly that sanmateo is going to stop the lynch? Now if he's a civ and has the butter required, shouldn't he be using it to remove votes from himself rather than stopping the lynch and giving the mafia at least one more kill?

he said he didn't buy it

[Vompatti]

Have I understood correctly that sanmateo is going to stop the lynch? Now if he's a civ and has the butter required, shouldn't he be using it to remove votes from himself rather than stopping the lynch and giving the mafia at least one more kill?

he said he didn't buy it

Do you trust him?