Death and Taxes: An Economics Mafia [DAY 7]

#3601

Vompatti wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Vompatti wrote:Have I understood correctly that sanmateo is going to stop the lynch? Now if he's a civ and has the butter required, shouldn't he be using it to remove votes from himself rather than stopping the lynch and giving the mafia at least one more kill?
he said he didn't buy it
Do you trust him?

i'm inclined to believe he has a lynch stop yes. the method of acquisition can be questioned. there are roles on both sides among the living that would serve as a viable explanation i think. what do you think?

#3602

Vompatti wrote:Have I understood correctly that sanmateo is going to stop the lynch? Now if he's a civ and has the butter required, shouldn't he be using it to remove votes from himself rather than stopping the lynch and giving the mafia at least one more kill?

#3603

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Vompatti wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Vompatti wrote:Have I understood correctly that sanmateo is going to stop the lynch? Now if he's a civ and has the butter required, shouldn't he be using it to remove votes from himself rather than stopping the lynch and giving the mafia at least one more kill?
he said he didn't buy it
Do you trust him?
i'm inclined to believe he has a lynch stop yes. the method of acquisition can be questioned. there are roles on both sides among the living that would serve as a viable explanation i think. what do you think?

I think if the mafia has a lynch stop they'll almost certainly use it today and sanmateo will get a lot of votes tomorrow.

#3604

do you think sanmateo is that mafia?

i know your vote is already on llama. but who do you think the baddie is?

#3605

as i see it right now, the mafia is either G-Man or sanmateo.

if Golden is mafia, then both he and BWT played wonderfully and i am fooled.

if splints is mafia, then she has played brilliantly since she first went under fire and enjoyed the benefit of some misleading evidence.

if Vompatti is mafia, then i am wrong about something i cannot say. and it's a risky hunch, so ugh.

#3606

^ I completely agree with this k

#3607

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Hosts:

some food for thought. i don't actually demand a response to this; it's just something to consider (if you haven't already). in most games, if a 3 vs 1 "LyLo" phase ends in a lynched townie, then the game is over. obviously the lynch makes it 2 vs 1, and the night kill makes it 1 vs 1. ballgame, mafia wins.

that might not necessarily be true in this game. 1 vs 1 might still be winnable for town because of guns and butter. just something to chew on.

Thanks, Triple J! We were aware of this, and will keep it in mind.

#3608

we have 48 minutes to decide this lynch i believe. if it's not exactly that, could a host please provide an update?

#3609

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:as i see it right now, the mafia is either G-Man or sanmateo.

if Golden is mafia, then both he and BWT played wonderfully and i am fooled.

if splints is mafia, then she has played brilliantly since she first went under fire and enjoyed the benefit of some misleading evidence.

if Vompatti is mafia, then i am wrong about something i cannot say. and it's a risky hunch, so ugh.

#3610

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:we have 48 minutes to decide this lynch i believe. if it's not exactly that, could a host please provide an update?

#3611

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:we have 48 minutes to decide this lynch i believe. if it's not exactly that, could a host please provide an update?

I have it as 1 hour and 54 minutes until the Day period ends.

#3612

oh okay. cool thanks.

#3613

where's your vote going to land, G-Man? it may seem obvious, but i like to ask obvious questions.

#3614

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:where's your vote going to land, G-Man? it may seem obvious, but i like to ask obvious questions.

#3615

i don't think i am going to change anyone's mind here. maybe it's for the best.

Vote: G-Man

#3616

I have a feeling that G-Man doesn't have enough butter to protect himself with.

#3617

Vompatti wrote:I have a feeling that G-Man doesn't have enough butter to protect himself with.

#3618

G-Man, could you refer us to the post when you claimed to purchase a NK protection?

#3619

I definitely would say I trust JJJ the most. I really don't see any way for him to be bad.
I think my early suspicion of bwt is most likely explained by him having to quit anyways. I haven't seen Golden's baddie game in years, but this still feels distinctly civvie Golden.

I don't have any reason to trust or suspect Vomps.

I do understand the suspicion of Gman. I may have played with Gman the most out of anyone involved, and while I don't really understand the posting in pictures thing, it doesn't seem that crazy for him. My mafia memories of him are the game he hosted which was intensely creative and long posts, and that one time he pushed that button and switched all our roles around. I feel like his voting record looks better then sanmateo's.

I've already said my reasons for distrusting sanmateo.

#3620

This is nuts.

I have to vote within the next half hour, after that I'm in meetings for a while.

I really wish we had more than 24 hours. I don't feel that we've resolved anything at all.

#3621

To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.

#3622

I'm actually wishing we had 24 more too, and I wanted shorter days so bad before.

This is the hardest lynch yet.

#3623

Vompatti wrote:To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.

can you explain how you come to this conclusion? not saying you're wrong.

#3624

Vompatti wrote:To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.

You drive me nuts.

Earlier today you said you had no view on sanmateo. Has that changed? If so why?

Or are you just talking about vote manipulation that you think could come into play?

#3625

Golden wrote:
Vompatti wrote:To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.
You drive me nuts.

Earlier today you said you had no view on sanmateo. Has that changed? If so why?

Or are you just talking about vote manipulation that you think could come into play?

It changed when he started talking about stopping the lynch.

#3626

let's put it this way. the cases against G-Man and sanmateo in the most simple terms. anyone feel free to add to these or comment or whatever.

G-Man

~ spent most of the game pretending to be cursed, even if he didn't actually outright claim to be cursed. he posted in pictures/videos/emojis exclusively and gave no hints that it was his own choice. at least not until MP dogpeed him and he revealed the truth. the circumstances of his reveal coming when he was under heavy pressure, and his denial of having faked a curse when he clearly faked a curse combine to serve as the most obvious cause for suspicion.

~ Bad Day 1 vote. it put Golden 1.0 over the top, and came right before mafia Bass's vote.

~ Questionable Day 2 vote. He was the 5th vote for Elohcin, who the mafia likely thought would flip town. this put a lot of separation between her and any other candidates.

~ Questionable Day 4 vote. He was the 9th vote for Roxy. he had no impact on the lynch at all.

~ Questionable Day 6 vote. He was the last vote for aether too.

~ He has presented some plots and ideas that i have viewed dubiously. the Heath Ledger "you're a coward" ploy just looked like b/s to me. and today's calls for an intentional lynch stop look opportunistic in the wrong way.

sanmateo coming up...

#3627

G-Man voted for Bass though, while sanmateo voted with bass for Gman

#3628

sanmateo

~ Questionable Day 1 vote. he voted for MP instead of either of the two wagons that grew larger. when he placed his vote MP was at 0 while Bass and Golden 1.0 were at 2 each.

~ Day 3 missed vote, when Black Rock was lynched. he claimed he meant to vote for her but the deadline came before he anticipated it (a couple minutes shy of XX:00).

~ Questionable Day 4 vote. voted aether late in the phase when it was clear Roxy would be lynched. he was somewhat defensive of Roxy prior, suggesting she should be replaced instead of lynched.

~ Potentially bad Day 5 vote. he was the third vote for G-Man instead of Bass, and it could have reversed the outcome. this hinges on G-Man's alignment.

~ Claims to have received a lynch stop ability without having to purchase it. this could be associated with Solow's role among others. he says he might use it if he must.

#3629

fingersplints wrote:G-Man voted for Bass though, while sanmateo voted with bass for Gman

i'm only including negative points. everyone has positive points. and frankly G-Man's Bass vote was forced since the counterwagon was G-Man himself.

#3630

The whole key to my case on sanmateo was the way he defended bass from DDL's case based on TB's death, for me, on day 4.

#3631

Golden wrote:The whole key to my case on sanmateo was the way he defended bass from DDL's case based on TB's death, for me, on day 4.

do you harbor any mild suspicions at least for me since i did the exact same thing?

#3632

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Vompatti wrote:To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.
can you explain how you come to this conclusion? not saying you're wrong.

I have a feeling that both sanmateo and G-Man will use all of their butters and guns today and G-Man is more likely of the two to get lynched.

#3633

i think G-Man's behavior has been immensely more suspicious. sanmateo's voting record is suspicious, but i don't think it's as bad as G-Man's conduct.

#3634

Gman does look bad in that analysis. They both do. :/ Its unfortunate because we do need as many votes together as possible likely

#3635

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Golden wrote:The whole key to my case on sanmateo was the way he defended bass from DDL's case based on TB's death, for me, on day 4.
do you harbor any mild suspicions at least for me since i did the exact same thing?

Perhaps I should have done that JJ/bass meaningful connections post which I didn't have time to do yet.

But when I did the ones matching you to Roxy and BR, you looked very clean, so I've trusted you since then.

Did you go back and read that in context as I suggested? You don't even feature (in my mind) in fact as far as I read when I read it in context I don't think you had even shown up yet - sanmateo is the one that changes the direction.

#3636

Vompatti wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Vompatti wrote:To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.
can you explain how you come to this conclusion? not saying you're wrong.
I have a feeling that both sanmateo and G-Man will use all of their butters and guns today and G-Man is more likely of the two to get lynched.

Oh, I understand. You are saying 'I think G-Man is getting lynched today either way'.

#3637

Golden wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Golden wrote:The whole key to my case on sanmateo was the way he defended bass from DDL's case based on TB's death, for me, on day 4.
do you harbor any mild suspicions at least for me since i did the exact same thing?
Perhaps I should have done that JJ/bass meaningful connections post which I didn't have time to do yet.

i really don't think you will have time. even if it makes me more suspicious for saying this: i think you're more useful to us in live communication right now. not digging through my 700 posts.

Golden wrote:But when I did the ones matching you to Roxy and BR, you looked very clean, so I've trusted you since then.

Did you go back and read that in context as I suggested? You don't even feature (in my mind) in fact as far as I read when I read it in context I don't think you had even shown up yet - sanmateo is the one that changes the direction.

I described the origins of my perception of that context here.

#3638

Golden wrote:
Vompatti wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Vompatti wrote:To be honest unless G-Man is bad no matter who gets the most votes we'll probably lynch a civ today.
can you explain how you come to this conclusion? not saying you're wrong.
I have a feeling that both sanmateo and G-Man will use all of their butters and guns today and G-Man is more likely of the two to get lynched.
Oh, I understand. You are saying 'I think G-Man is getting lynched today either way'.

If he doesn't get any more votes it could be that neither of the two gets lynched.

#3639

Damn, it looks like that link just sends me to a bunch of your posts, and I'm running out of time to search them. I literally only have about 5 minutes left now.

#3640

Golden wrote:Damn, it looks like that link just sends me to a bunch of your posts, and I'm running out of time to search them. I literally only have about 5 minutes left now.

the link is only meant to refer to you ONE post. the one post it directs you straight to. i was showing the pronounced mafia reads of sanmateo given by splints, G-Man, and myself (and the town read as described thoroughly by DDL) which lent to the context i described for sanmateo's behavior.

#3641

fingersplints wrote:Gman does look bad in that analysis. They both do. :/ Its unfortunate because we do need as many votes together as possible likely

if we're confident that it's one of the two, then it shouldn't matter much. but if we get in wrong today there's no telling what stresses may await in LyLo.

#3642

Actually on further examination it sends me to the top of a page. Any chance you could tell me what post on that page it is? Or jsut quote it?

#3643

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Day 6:

G-Man calls sanmateo his #1 suspect if aether flips town.

fingersplints wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:sanmateo has been as mafia-like as anyone since about Day 2.
I'd say more then most even.

I'm really torn here. Aether seems so bad this almost feels too easy. I don't think her defenses are great, but they feel more like she is trying more now. Could be that she is the last baddie left, so has to now.

You seem like a very nice person aether but I will probably still vote you. I'm not sure all of what you are going through, but I'm around to talk if you ever need anyone. I was in a pretty bad place a few years back, and some of the friends I made here were able to help me out of it. Sometimes just having someone to talk to helps.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:DDL, what makes you lean slight town on sanmateo?
I just don't see how his bad votes really benefit mafia. The non-vote in the BR lynch would risk him a host punishment when he could have just jumped on the bandwagon and reaped the results. The Roxy vote was easy as hell for mafia to jump in since she probably told them she was leaving, and yet sanmateo decided to be the one guy who calls the attention to himself. The Bass vote was already decided at the point he voted, unless mafia used items... which they didn't. He keeps attracting heat to himself without any benefit.

It comes down that sanmateo isn't playing a safe game at all. He is tunneling hard on his gut reads, he is yelling at people he disagrees with no matter how others think well about them, and he is questioning the game. He is failing but at least he seems to be trying.

Of course it could be all an elaborate scheme, but that's WIFOM territory. I don't think he has any credibility to be a strong town read, but the fact that he hasn't spent the game pusrsuing such credibility makes me think he's unlikely to be mafia.
Night 6, prior to Golden's case:

I case sanmateo in the "Player X is mafia" method and make numerous points against him. to be continued...

#3644

disregard the "to be continued"

#3645

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:G-Man, could you refer us to the post when you claimed to purchase a NK protection?

G-Man wrote:
Spoiler: show
G-Man wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Everyone who hasn't voted yet: remember to account for guns and butter.

Turnip Head wrote:What on earth does this mean G-Man

Spoiler: show

Turnip Head wrote:I would ask that one kind individual who voted Bass and feels good about their vote reinforce it with a gun today, if they have one to spare.

Spoiler: show

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 45#p148545

#3646

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:disregard the "to be continued"

it doesn't have to end like this!

#3647

#3648

I don't understand how that connects to sanmateo's day 4 behaviour... and unfortunately the further link also sends me to the top of a page, I guess those links aren't working so well.

I have to vote right now. I don't expect or ask that people follow me, I just have to follow my own gut. JJ, I don't feel like I've been able to express my points on sanmateo well and in a way which has helped you understand them, and so likewise I think that hasn't helped me feel convinced by your responses that sanmateo is good. I feel like we've been talking somewhat at cross purposes which is even harder to resolve under so much pressure. The silver lining of a lynch stop might be that we can actually resolve this, but if none happens then I hope that whatever the outcome is (gman or sanmateo) that it's the right one.

#3649

#3650

i'm reading sanmateo Day 4 and still seeing a townie. if i am wrong about this, i am colossally wrong.

Who killed our talkative teddy??