Guess Who? Mafia

[fingersplints]

yes I'm really sad I missed that vote because I meant to vote DDL again. I don't have a great excuse. I get really homesick on American holidays (especially the fourth that is also my nephews bday) I'll be more in a mafia mood later. sorry Elo though!

[thellama73]

Hi all! Back from a holiday weekend and all caught up. Very happy Dragon is dead. He was, as I believe I said,a smooth criminal.

Here's my technicolor list of player evaluations. Spacedaisy is where she is because her vote for Golden would be madness for a Dragon teammate. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks exceptionally bad in hindsight.


Probably Mafia
Black Rock
Golden
Hedgeowl
Maybe Mafia
spacedaisy
timmer
MetalMarsh89
Epignosis
Probably Not Mafia
fingersplints
Missing Person
nijuukyugou
Roxy
G-Man
thellama73

[thellama73]

What, I'm finally back and no one wants to talk?

[G-Man]

What, I'm finally back and no one wants to talk?

Yo Llama, I'll get my chat on with you. I see we both made lists of where we think people stand. I disagree with the following from your list:

Probably Mafia
Golden
Maybe Mafia
spacedaisy
MetalMarsh89
Epignosis
Probably Not Mafia
Missing Person
Roxy
thellama73

If I were to put those people in a list it would look like this:


Probably Mafia
spacedaisy
MetalMarsh89
Missing Person

Maybe Mafia
Roxy
thellama73

Probably Not Mafia
Epignosis
Golden


First and foremost, let's talk about Golden. Our opinions of him seem to be polar opposites. Can you elaborate on why you think he is probably mafia even after his confrontation of Dragon yesterday?

[thellama73]

First and foremost, let's talk about Golden. Our opinions of him seem to be polar opposites. Can you elaborate on why you think he is probably mafia even after his confrontation of Dragon yesterday?

I learned in Biblical Mafia that I do a lot better looking at the vote record than at what people say. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks bad. He put the third vote on Missing Person when Dragon had three votes. Granted, TH had four at that time, but I still think it looks bad. His Day 2 vote for Dragon came late enough to be potential underbusthrowery. Then again, I'm one to talk, since I voted even later than him. I just don't feel good about him right now.

[G-Man]

I learned in Biblical Mafia that I do a lot better looking at the vote record than at what people say. I think Golden's Day 1 vote looks bad. He put the third vote on Missing Person when Dragon had three votes. Granted, TH had four at that time, but I still think it looks bad. His Day 2 vote for Dragon came late enough to be potential underbusthrowery. Then again, I'm one to talk, since I voted even later than him. I just don't feel good about him right now.

Zero disagreement on the potential shadiness of his Day 1 vote. His Day 2 vote, however, only came in an hour after my vote (the first for Dragon).

Do you think that he simply felt that he had to commit to voting a teammate after that dust-up even though there was potentially nine more votes left to be cast?

Or do you think that he saw three votes against Dragon and thought it wise to join in on the popular choice given his dust-up with Dragon?

Here's another question associated with what you've said- is one hour's time and three votes really enough to bus a teammate with 9 votes still outstanding?

[Golden]

I had been saying for a good chunk of the day that I was going to vote Missing Person if he didn't come and put in an avatar, and that's what I did. An unfortunate consequence of that is that the vote definitely looks bad in hindsight, especially now that I know Dragon is bad.

Llama, I have to say I feel the exact same way about your voting. So all is fair.

[G-Man]

Aw, come on Llama. You can't pout about not having anyone interested in talking and then disappear when someone actually wants to talk.

I was so excited and pumped up to do some nighttime talking and you're leaving me hanging. You're killing my mojo, man. I beg of you...

[Elohcin]

A little over three hours to get your PMs to the host! C'mon kids...participate. I promise it's more fun that way. :P

[G-Man]

A little over three hours to get your PMs to the host! C'mon kids...participate. I promise it's more fun that way. :P

Better believe I sent mine in. I want fun!

[Marmot]

I submitted two names to make up for my missing lynch vote.

[thellama73]

Do you think that he simply felt that he had to commit to voting a teammate after that dust-up even though there was potentially nine more votes left to be cast?

Or do you think that he saw three votes against Dragon and thought it wise to join in on the popular choice given his dust-up with Dragon?

Here's another question associated with what you've said- is one hour's time and three votes really enough to bus a teammate with 9 votes still outstanding?

B more than A, but C is a very good point and does give me a little bit of pause. I think I owe him a reread before taking any action here.

[thellama73]

Aw, come on Llama. You can't pout about not having anyone interested in talking and then disappear when someone actually wants to talk.

I was so excited and pumped up to do some nighttime talking and you're leaving me hanging. You're killing my mojo, man. I beg of you...

I'm sorry! Work got super busy all of a sudden.

[G-Man]

Cool beans, Llama. I kinda figured that was the case. I'm lucky that I can find ample time during work to play. Once again, my wife doesn't know I'm playing another mafia game so I gotta keep things on the down-low at home.

Glad you see part of where I'm coming from. Both Biblical and Econ taught me that I can't rely too firmly on my spreadsheets and vote analysis. Lucky for me, this game is short enough to re-read.

I'll try to jump back in with some more thoughts before the night post goes up. I'm suspect I may not make it through the night after going all Balaam on Dragon's ass.

[thellama73]

What do we make of Dragon's vote for Black Rock? Would it be clever of him to vote for a teammate with his dying breath to throw us off the scent? Or does that vote make her look better? I'm incluned to distrust it.

[Golden]

My first instinct on Dragon's vote for BR was that it made her look a little better. Why do you think worse?

Another thing I'd really appreciate a fresh perspective on, llama, is MM.

For me, I'm at the point where I think a reread is in order. I need to have another look at everyone, probably, but I'm particularly focussed on MM, Daisy, BR, llama, hedgeowl, MP as that is the list of people I find most suspicious at the moment. I'll probably read ninja back too but I liked the point about her Dragon vote on day one, so that has her looking better in my eyes.

[Elohcin]

I guess the members of the Mafia don't like rainbows.
G-Man has been put down. It is now Day 3.

[G-Man]

D'oh! I thought I had until 7:30-ish. I was going to post my Day 3 suspect list in case this very thing happened.

Avenge me! Avenge me!

[thellama73]

That... is very bad. Damn. You will be missed, G-Man.

[thellama73]

My first instinct on Dragon's vote for BR was that it made her look a little better. Why do you think worse?

Another thing I'd really appreciate a fresh perspective on, llama, is MM.

For me, I'm at the point where I think a reread is in order. I need to have another look at everyone, probably, but I'm particularly focussed on MM, Daisy, BR, llama, hedgeowl, MP as that is the list of people I find most suspicious at the moment. I'll probably read ninja back too but I liked the point about her Dragon vote on day one, so that has her looking better in my eyes.

I haven't had any sleep, so I'm going to wait until tomorrow to do a comprehensive reread and then I'll give you my thoughts on MM and others you mention. I don't know, I thought Golden seemed the type to throw a vote on his teammate before dying to give her cover. It's all WIFOM, but I could see him doing it.

[Epignosis]

That... is very bad. Damn. You will be missed, G-Man.

And not surprising. The previous kill was an analytical guy who talked at night.

My opinion hasn't changed on Black Rock.

[Golden]

Avenge me! Avenge me!

By Grabthar's Hammer, you shall be avenged.

RIP G-Man. You've given us a leg up here, I think.

[nijuukyugou]

Yay caught up! I suppose that's the advantage of such a quiet game.

Quick read back-

Metalmarsh ignored my question

Golden - I hear what you are saying but what you accuse Metalmarsh of you are doing to me over this I won't vote for new or returning players.

Dragon- I don't get you list it is a bit wonky imo. Like you posted it to just to post. Some of you reasoning you used to say people were leaning slightly town is the same reasoning you used to say someone was feeling mafia. It felt a lot like mud flinging.

Imma be busy today with a hike and picnic but should be back to post before deadline

Was this the question? Sorry, thought you were joking since I haven't self-voted in a while, though I guess I also haven't played with you in a while.

Self-voting as a strategy to draw out mafia only works so many times before people catch on.

Wat?

This a bizarre response MM. When and how did you ever find a baddie with a self vote day 1? I don't remember that ever happening.

I still feel weird about MM, and had the same thought as Roxy - I often suspect self-voters regardless of alignment, and I don't ever recall that strategy finding a baddie. Also, his interactions (and lack thereof) with Golden make me itchy.

What do we make of Dragon's vote for Black Rock? Would it be clever of him to vote for a teammate with his dying breath to throw us off the scent? Or does that vote make her look better? I'm incluned to distrust it.

Quite clever. I'm torn on this, but I'd almost like to see it used as a strategy - I get tired of seeing the same old same old :P The points brought up about BR and her shady TH vote make me look in her direction for baddiness.

That's all I can think of for now. Sorry for my horrible lack of participation; I should be better now for at least a couple of days

[Epignosis]

Poker Face.

This guy







Coming to a Mafia Game near you.

[G-Man]

Actually, the host/dead/non option made me think of these gems:

[S~V~S]

Poker Face by Christopher Walken was amazing.

[Marmot]

Quick read back-

Metalmarsh ignored my question

Golden - I hear what you are saying but what you accuse Metalmarsh of you are doing to me over this I won't vote for new or returning players.

Dragon- I don't get you list it is a bit wonky imo. Like you posted it to just to post. Some of you reasoning you used to say people were leaning slightly town is the same reasoning you used to say someone was feeling mafia. It felt a lot like mud flinging.

Imma be busy today with a hike and picnic but should be back to post before deadline

Was this the question? Sorry, thought you were joking since I haven't self-voted in a while, though I guess I also haven't played with you in a while.

Self-voting as a strategy to draw out mafia only works so many times before people catch on.

Wat?

This a bizarre response MM. When and how did you ever find a baddie with a self vote day 1? I don't remember that ever happening.

My self-vote helped draw out the emotional responses of MovingPictures in Roger Rabbit Mafia (though I wasn't around to actually help lynch him).

[Roxy]

aww damn I had a feeling it was gonna be Gman.

As far as Poker Face goes I got nothing!

Christopher Walken, however, is another matter! I need to make a Christopher Walken Mafia!

[Roxy]

Quick read back-

Metalmarsh ignored my question

Golden - I hear what you are saying but what you accuse Metalmarsh of you are doing to me over this I won't vote for new or returning players.

Dragon- I don't get you list it is a bit wonky imo. Like you posted it to just to post. Some of you reasoning you used to say people were leaning slightly town is the same reasoning you used to say someone was feeling mafia. It felt a lot like mud flinging.

Imma be busy today with a hike and picnic but should be back to post before deadline

Was this the question? Sorry, thought you were joking since I haven't self-voted in a while, though I guess I also haven't played with you in a while.

Self-voting as a strategy to draw out mafia only works so many times before people catch on.

Wat?

This a bizarre response MM. When and how did you ever find a baddie with a self vote day 1? I don't remember that ever happening.

My self-vote helped draw out the emotional responses of MovingPictures in Roger Rabbit Mafia (though I wasn't around to actually help lynch him).

So YOU have never found a baddie with your self vote strategy that you had to give up bc it will only work so long before baddies catch on?
Got it!

[Epignosis]

I'm noticing nobody living is talking about Black Rock. Is there a reason for that?

[Roxy]

I'm noticing nobody living is talking about Black Rock. Is there a reason for that?

Mostly bc I do not feel the way you do about her.

[Roxy]

also Pretty Boy how do you feel about MM now?

[Epignosis]

I'm noticing nobody living is talking about Black Rock. Is there a reason for that?

Mostly bc I do not feel the way you do about her.

Be honest with me here: Do you ever suspect BR? I can't think of one time you have.

[Black Rock]

G-Man is making strange posts calling me strange.

I cannot win at this game.

Tell me about it, I'm bad in every game.

[Roxy]

I'm noticing nobody living is talking about Black Rock. Is there a reason for that?

Mostly bc I do not feel the way you do about her.

Be honest with me here: Do you ever suspect BR? I can't think of one time you have.

Sure I have - we have played many games together across different sites. Riddle me this - why do you suspect her more than others that made that vote or another?

[Epignosis]

G-Man is making strange posts calling me strange.

I cannot win at this game.

Tell me about it, I'm bad in every game.

[Roxy]

also Pretty Boy how do you feel about MM now?

This was to the pink and pretty Epi

[Black Rock]

That... is very bad. Damn. You will be missed, G-Man.

And not surprising. The previous kill was an analytical guy who talked at night.

My opinion hasn't changed on Black Rock.

It doesn't bother you that a known baddie was trying to get me lynched?

[Epignosis]

I'm noticing nobody living is talking about Black Rock. Is there a reason for that?

Mostly bc I do not feel the way you do about her.

Be honest with me here: Do you ever suspect BR? I can't think of one time you have.

Sure I have - we have played many games together across different sites. Riddle me this - why do you suspect her more than others that made that vote or another?

What is "That vote or another?" Who are the others? Do you mean the Turnip Head vote?

[Epignosis]

That... is very bad. Damn. You will be missed, G-Man.

And not surprising. The previous kill was an analytical guy who talked at night.

My opinion hasn't changed on Black Rock.

It doesn't bother you that a known baddie was trying to get me lynched?

No. And I don't think he was trying to get you lynched.

I'm trying to get you lynched.

[Black Rock]

That... is very bad. Damn. You will be missed, G-Man.

And not surprising. The previous kill was an analytical guy who talked at night.

My opinion hasn't changed on Black Rock.

It doesn't bother you that a known baddie was trying to get me lynched?

No. And I don't think he was trying to get you lynched.

I'm trying to get you lynched.

I think he was hoping the ball would roll more my direction. I was his easiest target.

You are being very close minded with me, it's traveling across games.

[Epignosis]

also Pretty Boy how do you feel about MM now?

This was to the pink and pretty Epi

Sorry. I passed this by not knowing it was to me.

MM is in my naughty list because he didn't vote.

Lots of people voted Day 1. DDL was in trouble.

Few people voted Day 2. DDL was in trouble.

I think DDL has a team that got busy and didn't show Day 2.

Like Black Rock.

I'm sorry if you don't like to vote Black Rock. Given the shit that has gone down, she remains my top suspect.

Addendum: I don't mind being closed-minded when it comes to Mafia.

[Black Rock]

also Pretty Boy how do you feel about MM now?

This was to the pink and pretty Epi

Sorry. I passed this by not knowing it was to me.

MM is in my naughty list because he didn't vote.

Lots of people voted Day 1. DDL was in trouble.

Few people voted Day 2. DDL was in trouble.

I think DDL has a team that got busy and didn't show Day 2.

Like Black Rock.

I'm sorry if you don't like to vote Black Rock. Given the shit that has gone down, she remains my top suspect.

Addendum: I don't mind being closed-minded when it comes to Mafia.

I can't wait to prove you wrong.

[Epignosis]

also Pretty Boy how do you feel about MM now?

This was to the pink and pretty Epi

Sorry. I passed this by not knowing it was to me.

MM is in my naughty list because he didn't vote.

Lots of people voted Day 1. DDL was in trouble.

Few people voted Day 2. DDL was in trouble.

I think DDL has a team that got busy and didn't show Day 2.

Like Black Rock.

I'm sorry if you don't like to vote Black Rock. Given the shit that has gone down, she remains my top suspect.

Addendum: I don't mind being closed-minded when it comes to Mafia.

I can't wait to prove you wrong.

Well, if you can do that, please do that now. You saying that doesn't help you.

[Golden]

BR, not that I'd want to distract you from epi's tunnelling or anything , but who are your suspects? What do you think of MM?

[timmer]

I'm finally able to get back into this game, I'm so sorry for my absence.

I just read back and caught up completely. I see the points on BR but for me, SpaceDaisy is where its at. Her Day 1 vote was weak and directly saved DDL's bacon. Her Day 2 vote was a throwaway and her comments on DDL at the time read like a teamie trying to "say something".

[Marmot]

Yay caught up! I suppose that's the advantage of such a quiet game.

Quick read back-

Metalmarsh ignored my question

Golden - I hear what you are saying but what you accuse Metalmarsh of you are doing to me over this I won't vote for new or returning players.

Dragon- I don't get you list it is a bit wonky imo. Like you posted it to just to post. Some of you reasoning you used to say people were leaning slightly town is the same reasoning you used to say someone was feeling mafia. It felt a lot like mud flinging.

Imma be busy today with a hike and picnic but should be back to post before deadline

Was this the question? Sorry, thought you were joking since I haven't self-voted in a while, though I guess I also haven't played with you in a while.

Self-voting as a strategy to draw out mafia only works so many times before people catch on.

Wat?

This a bizarre response MM. When and how did you ever find a baddie with a self vote day 1? I don't remember that ever happening.

I still feel weird about MM, and had the same thought as Roxy - I often suspect self-voters regardless of alignment, and I don't ever recall that strategy finding a baddie. Also, his interactions (and lack thereof) with Golden make me itchy.

I have not self-voted this game.

Quick read back-

Metalmarsh ignored my question

Golden - I hear what you are saying but what you accuse Metalmarsh of you are doing to me over this I won't vote for new or returning players.

Dragon- I don't get you list it is a bit wonky imo. Like you posted it to just to post. Some of you reasoning you used to say people were leaning slightly town is the same reasoning you used to say someone was feeling mafia. It felt a lot like mud flinging.

Imma be busy today with a hike and picnic but should be back to post before deadline

Was this the question? Sorry, thought you were joking since I haven't self-voted in a while, though I guess I also haven't played with you in a while.

Self-voting as a strategy to draw out mafia only works so many times before people catch on.

Wat?

This a bizarre response MM. When and how did you ever find a baddie with a self vote day 1? I don't remember that ever happening.

My self-vote helped draw out the emotional responses of MovingPictures in Roger Rabbit Mafia (though I wasn't around to actually help lynch him).

So YOU have never found a baddie with your self vote strategy that you had to give up bc it will only work so long before baddies catch on?
Got it!

I haven't given it up. I'm just being selective of when I use it.

I also haven't self-voted since Harry Stephen Keeler, and I have played 7 other games since that one. What are you getting at here?

[thellama73]

I'm noticing nobody living is talking about Black Rock. Is there a reason for that?

She's the top of my suspect list, old buddy!

Starting rereads now...

[thellama73]

The G-Man kill has given me a lot to think about. I think we are dealing with a mostly absent, panicky mafia getting rid of someone who was on their trail. The Ricochet kill was smart, but after the loss of DDL, the G-Man kill was artless. I agree with Epi that the team was MIA on Day 2. Epi, for example, would never have allowed such a kill if he were mafia.

Spacedaisy defended DDL and pushed a Golden lynch.
Hedgeowl has a total of three, mostly off-topic posts, and would likely throw down a reflex NK.

I'm probably going to vote for Turnip Head just to piss everyone off.

Why would that piss everyone off?

People hate when I vote for non-participants or people who "have not had the chance to defend themselves."

Turnip Head has been absent in several games though, so I think this is a different situation.

I agree and am also going to vote for Turnip Head.

What is BR agreeing with here? That she wants to piss people off? That people hate it when I vote for non-participants? Her vote is poorly explained. She goes on:

Bummer. That was some really solid play you were making here, Ricochet. Hope I play again with you some time.

I'm reading through day 1 posts and BR's ones caught my attention. It feels to me her vote on TH was pretty oportunistic. She only agreed with what splints said then jumped on the wagon later in the phase, after waiting for two players to do it first. And did not say much more. I'm leaning mafia on her.

TBH it was opportunistic and a little frustration with TH atm. It was day 1 none of you really look that suspicious and so I voted for a non-player. He is a non-player and I don't think he would have ever showed up. I actually wasn't waiting for more people to do it. I didn't have to wait for other players to do it at all, I was already taking an easy way out.

Interesting little exchange with Dragon. She defended him earlier, saying "why are you focusing on Dragon?" I think BR looks bad.

Now, MM< because I promised:
He also gently pushed a Golden lynch, but other than that, he reads pretty genuine to me. I also feel better about Golden after rereading him, but am not ready to completely absolve him yet.

[fingersplints]

SD looks worse to me still, but the BR case makes sense to me too.

I know she responded to me like "see I told you I don't get the suspicion" but it still feels like brushing it off too me. And I think she voted off because it would have looked even worse to vote her teammate at that point.

Llama why do you think the kill of Gman was artless?