G-Man wrote:Dragon D. Luffy wrote:9 townies, 3 mafiosos. Chance of lynching a townie is three timer higher than a mafioso (75-25).
The indies are excluded because they can be either pro-town, anti-town, or neutral, we can't possible measure that. So I just assume they all average as neutral and that we are still more likely to lynch pro-town.
I think you can add Silk Spectre and The Comedian to the civvie side of the equation. Neither of their win conditions suggest any harm to the civvies. Regardless, we're always more likely to lynch civvie than a baddie whether we use randomization or our best effort to deduce the identity of a baddie. Using strict probability, the odds are always stacked against us.
Silk Spectre wants to stay alive long enough to find the roles she is looking for. If I were her, I'd help whatever faction seemed to be losing at the moment. If town starts winning too hard, I could see her helping mafia.
The Comedian would benefit from looking very civ, since he has to be night killed. So he is likely the most pro-civ one. But he still has a separate wincon, and might change sides if town starts winning too hard.
Nite Owl has a wincon that looks very pro-civ. He will be helping us at start. But if his dad is still alive and he has a chance to help hammer a civ lynch to end the game, he will. Likewise, if he kills the guy he has to kill, but his wincon means he has to survive till the end of the game, he will want the game to end faster.
Rorschach is a serial killer. He will kill anyone in his list, regardless of the alignment. Whether that helps town or not will depend on our luck.
The others are a mystery.