Watchmen [ENDGAME]

[DharmaHelper]

many more of them*

Sorry, those two posts are probably rife with spelling and grammatical errors, but I'm still working on my assignment due later this evening.

DH, I'm curious, are you viewing each player's posts in isolation before you post those thoughts, or are you going based on recollection, or are you reading the thread in its entirety?

Gotta go again.

I'm reading everyone's posts in isolation, going off Epi's list in the front page.

[timmer]

Update: friends leave in two days. I will active once they are gone, but I will try to catch up tonight.

[Ricochet]

Hiya, I'm back and at intensive care from sunburns, mosquito bites and leg fever.

I've been catching up this afternoon, but now I need to depressurize from doing that. Don't be thinking that I'll lurk in an hour or so either, because it will probably take me a bit to write a post with thoughts - I don't intend to make a megalosaurus of a read up, but it likely won't be petite either, given my habit to write a lot.

Until then, I just want to address what G-Man wrote as a "reasoning" for my D1 vote, which I find rather unfair since it's not my actual reasoning. Parenthesis: Not sure yet of this "Reason" feature addition to the otherwise cool Tehnicolor lists - it can bring a hint of subjectivity to an otherwise statistical list. I see I'm not the first to correct G-Man on the reasoning he added in there.

What I meant by that "Impossible to fully address" sentence was that the D1 endgame got extremely frantic and heated in discussion, plus bit spreaded in votes too, down the final stretch, so that I found it "impossible" to properly address everything happening in the final five minutes before deadline, the way I usually prefer to do (i.e. wrap-up posts). Two and a half pages were written within the last hour of voting. 'Sticking with Elo' meant voting her for her back and forth on Sloonei, which I still found odd at that time. She even decided to go along with Sloonei with roughly 10 minutes to go, after returning for the deadline with 30 minutes to go, making it hard for me to inquire her properly in the time left.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Big post about MP's suspicion/vote history on D1. I said I'd have to analyse it so I'm doing it.

I am starting to believe something is off about Sloonei. What do others who have played with him think?

Rainbow List - Day 1 (~21 Hours Remaining)

Yes, I am continuing my love of Rainbow Lists. For those unaware, I prefer to organize my thoughts on everyone in a rainbow-colored list of suspicion, in order to display to everyone how I am currently reading all living players. It not only helps me keep track of my own thoughts and forces me to try to evaluate every other player in the game, but easily shows other players what I am thinking, so that everyone doesn't have to ask me what I think of Player X.

This is VERY subject to change, since it's tough to read anyone at this stage. I was tempted to place the players who have contributed no thoughts into the "slight" mafia range, but I didn't want to do that, since they are truly "no read".

This is how I am currently feeling about everyone in the game:

Spoiler: show

TASTE THE RAINBOW

Golden
thellama73

Bass_the_Clever
Cookie
DharmaHelper
Dragon D. Luffy
Elohcin
espers
Long Con
LoRab
Metalmarsh89
nijuukyugou
Ricochet
Russtifinko
Scotty
timmer

G-Man
Sloonei

For reference:
Very strong civilian read
Strong civilian read
Moderate civilian read
Slight civilian read
Very slight civilian read
No read or unsure
Very slight mafia read
Slight mafia read
Moderate mafia read
Strong mafia read
Very strong mafia read

In this post (which I broke in two quotes because it's freaking huge), he starts with the Sloonei suspicion. That is very early in the phase, when the case on Sloonei pretty much amounted to "LOL ADVERBS".

I don't suspect Sloonei for the adverbs, but there's something off about him I can't quite put my finger on, though it's possible I am way off the mark here. He's playing to his meta, but he has made a couple of statements that have struck me as him trying too hard to meet his own meta.

I know that allegation sucks, since I've been hit with it before, and it's what sunk Golden in economics because the baddies wanted him gone, but I have pointed out a couple of posts previously, and for now I'm going to take a backseat and let the Day develop while I get some stuff done, so I'm officially pushing Sloonei back to my no read section.

Early on the next day, he backs off. At this point, nobody had voted yet. His case was pretty weak, and his reason for dropping it is also pretty weak, but it's interesting how he made a point of saying Sloonei was his #1 Suspect in the first rainbow list. Next.

Regarding where I am at this moment:

I have very slight suspicions of G-Man and Ninja. That being said, I think a lynch of Ninja right now would be "easy", and I'm consequently hesitant to cast my vote that way, or in G-Man's direction. I'm going to examine the players I have in my No Read section now.

That said, Ninja does have the highest propensity to receive my vote as well, but man, these lynch trains always make me nervous, and they do minimize the information we can gleam in subsequent Days from looking back at this lynch, especially if hardly anyone casts off.

There are multiple posts like this so I'm only quoting once. As the ninja bandwagon gains its momentum (which it eventually lost but at this point it had the momentum), MP gives his read about it (which is okay, since MP always comments EVERYTHING that happens in a game). He seems inclined to vote her, but is suspicious that it might be an easy bandwagon. Also soft suspicion on G-Man, another player who was in the spotlight at this point of the game. From another post, it seems like MP is really torn on who to vote.

Also, I have literally zero suspicion of sloonei. I do not yet see any reason to think he is bad and I have not really agreed with any of the cases on him. I think he is the person who looks most at risk of suffering my econ day one fate - someone that no baddie is going to be sad to see lynched because he can be a threat to their chances of success later on. I'm much more wary of those who have simply jumped on the 'sloonei looks bad' bandwagon than I am of sloonei.

I'm very glad you said this, because that's precisely the reason I backed off of my gut-based suspicion of Sloonei earlier. I started feeling like I was expecting too much of him, realizing that my thoughts on him were exactly "trying too hard to meet meta" and other vague feelings that are not logical or based on actual content. It's the same kind of vague poisonous suspicion that took you down in Economics.

Consequently, I will NOT be voting for Sloonei today.

I'm beginning to consider casting a vote in the direction of someone who has yet to contribute any actual suspects. That would be the following players (from my recollection, I'll have to confirm/deny):

Cookie
espers
G-Man
Long Con
nijuukyugou
Russtifinko
Scotty
timmer

I cannot recall a single suspect from any of these players. I am going to re-read their posts in isolation shortly here.

I do know that G-Man has contributed significant content, but I can't recall a solid assertion of a suspect, even very slight. I may be hesitant to vote this direction. Likewise, Scotty has said quite a bit, but I don't recall him naming a suspect either.

I'm much more hesitant to vote for Cookie, since she is getting accustomed to mafia, as well as our way of playing, etc.

What to do about timmer? He and LC are the most MIA at the moment, but timmer at least came in and self-voted. I can't stand the fact that he self-voted, but I recognize that it doesn't mean he is mafia. It is very unclear what his intentions are.

Linki

But meanwhile, he is fairly sure Sloonei is NOT earning his vote. He has a sizable list of people he is considering for a vote, though. Still torn on them.

1 hour to vote and only 3 votes cast? Uh oh. I really hope everyone votes!

Linki w/ Rico: Despite finding Ninja suspicious, I'm increasingly feeling like it is an easy slide as well, hence my hesitation. And likewise, despite my efforts, I feel as though I haven't made any solid breakthroughs.

As the momentum of ninja decreases, MP's feeling that voting her is a bad idea increases.

You mean why I found Sloonei suspicious or why others do?

As for my view on him, I no longer really find him suspicious. I just don't know what to make of him. Sloonei recently asked if I could elaborate what I thought of him, and I did so here.

To summarize, I did point out one post where I felt like his questions were forced, and I noted elsewhere that his behavior seemed like he was trying too hard to fit his meta (asking tons of questions), instead of genuinely hunting. Other than that, as I noted earlier, there has been something about his posts I couldn't quite put my finger on. Because I couldn't articulate it any further, I've since abandoned my gut feelings on the matter, since it seems I'm likely reading something into his posts that may not be there. I noted that sentiment here. I'll very likely revisit him after we have results in today's lynch, and read his posts in isolation, to help me get a better idea of how I'm viewing his behavior. It's only fair that if I were to vote for him today that I would be much more able to articulate why I think his behavior seems mafia-like.

That said, I also asked a question regarding his vote. Here is his vote post and here is what I was wondering.

Explanation of his feelings on Sloonei. I don't have anything to comment, but I'm leaving it here for the sake of fairness.

I'm still combing through 5 more pages to respond to, and I will, but for now, I'm voting Ehlo. Someone asked if DDL seemed "comfortable" and I don't really know what that means in respect to DDL because no one was really suspecting him. But ehlo's recent response seems comfortable and jokey, and it's standing out to me right now.

I also do not find anything Sloonei doing in this game different than the last game. Granted, I don't know if he was civ in that game, but it also doesn't ping me.

Can you explain why you think this makes her mafia?

Can you answer my question, when you get a chance, about whether Metalmarsh's behavior being unhelpful makes him mafia or not? You've made quite a few comments saying that regarding him, but made no issuance of whether you suspected him or not, or anything like that.

A wild case on Scotty appeared! (sorry for the pun lol). Very close to the end of the phase. MP had asked questions to Scotty before, and had placed him into his possible lynches list due to him not pointing suspicions on anyone, and not answering his questions. But his case of Scotty had never been big until this point.

I'm still combing through 5 more pages to respond to, and I will, but for now, I'm voting Ehlo. Someone asked if DDL seemed "comfortable" and I don't really know what that means in respect to DDL because no one was really suspecting him. But ehlo's recent response seems comfortable and jokey, and it's standing out to me right now.

I also do not find anything Sloonei doing in this game different than the last game. Granted, I don't know if he was civ in that game, but it also doesn't ping me.

Hence why I asked him to elaborate here.

He doesn't even say why "comfortable and jokey" from Elo makes her likely to be a member of the mafia. He says it's "standing out", but again, how does that mean he is casting his vote for someone that he thinks is bad?

Even further, he makes no mention of Elo being a low poster as the reason for his vote, which I find odd, since he called her out for being a low poster, and here he emphasizes he is focusing on no shows.

Combine that with the fact that he kept harping on MM being "unhelpful", which is something I've done in past games as a mafia to try to take advantage of his unconventional playstyle, yet refusing to issue an issue of suspicion on him, and I'm really starting to suspect Scotty.

I'm voting Scotty.

G-Man and Ninja can wait. I feel most comfortable with this.

The case develops fast, and the vote is cast.

Scotty, don't sweat it. I can empathize. I'm sorry I voted for you today suddenly (well, only if you're mafia, but either way I hate voting someone out of nowhere on Day 1), but I wasn't feeling too confident in any of my reads, and your vote pinged me pretty bad. I really look forward to hearing what you have to contribute later on, if you do survive.

Shortly after, but before the phase ends, he posts this. If MP is a baddie, this could be possibly a way of him to try to clean the shit he knows he just dropped on the floor.

Ok, I'll stop the quotes because this is already big enough.

The bottomline is, everything MP said can be called reasonable. He came up with a credible explanation for his every move, and had a very rational approach to the phase.

But when you look at the big picture, I see something that can be interpreted as the progression of a baddie. He states a suspicion on Sloonei when the case is almost non-existant, which could be a safe form of distancing. Then he quickly drops it, and spents the phase having views that keep up with the general opinion of other players. MP suspects ninja and G-Man with the others, but never makes a decision. As the phase comes close to and end, he starts suspecing Scotty, someone he hadn't said anything about before, and drops a vote that it's pretty much impossible to result in a lynch, making it a safe vote. So, as a whole

I'm moving him to my "slightly mafia" camp. I've never actually seen baddie MP so I don't know how he operates, but mimicking his supatown way of playing and making huge ass analysis while not actually forming an opinion is how I'd expect him to do it.

[G-Man]

Ricochet- that actually makes a lot more sense now that you've explained it. No worries- you didn't leave enough to make a determination on you yet anyway. Take all the time you like.

I was admittedly torn on whether to add the reasons for votes to my technicolor lists or not. Over-reliance on raw data only gets you so far and my assessments from the technicolor lists lacked the context of each player's content. I'm not very good with reading people (at least not for the first three or four days) and I'd like to get better but I just don't have the time to commit to re-reading the thread and doing these ISO's every lynch cycle. I thought including the reasons might help add some context but you are right in that it can get subjective. I may drop the reasons from future lists but I will probably keep track of the reasons people vote in my spreadsheet in case anyone slips up in that area. Looking for and adding the reasons was more time-consuming than I thought too. Maybe I'm just too much of an in-the-moment player. Who knows.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

DDL Thoughts:


Starts "joking" about lynching Golden
Jumps on MP for going "Mama Bear"
In answering MP's survey, notes that he thinks most of the Golden/G-Man thing is a joke and MP is overreacting
In fact, his defense for Most of Day 0 is "Lol JK"
Adament that his stance on "policy lynching"/BS votes will not extend to D2

Votes for Sloonei (Hadn't brought him up before), 3rd vote for Sloonei putting him ahead of Niju


"Parrots" llamas suspects (espers, Golden)
Reminder: Up until then his Golden suspicion had been a joke
Explaination of his Golden suspicion makes sense
Thoughts on espers make sense. (Espers dumped a vote on Sloonei late, was defensive of him earlier, dumped a suspect in favor of a Sloonei vote that did nothing)

Votes Golden because the other 3 are not suspicious to him
Blames the shortened poll for the mislynch


Names Me, Espers, G-Man, Cookie and MM as suspect for various reasons


Conclusions:

I find it Ironic that DDL spent so much time "joking" about lynching Golden only to wind up doing it when given an easy excuse (the shortened Day 2 poll and Golden's vote). DDL claimed to have read the other 3 suspects, but I'm not sure if I believe him. Given his thoughts on Me, MM, espers, and Cookie in particular (which you can find here: http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 72#p159172 ) I think it's strange that he suspects all of those people for inactivity/blending in and had nothing to say regarding Long Con.

He can say he did the legwork for the other suspects all he wants, but he produced none of it, so I am forced to assume he didn't do anything apart from wait until he could lynch Golden.

My money has DDL as Moloch.

I think you are overestimating the importance of the D0 joke posts. I suspected Golden because of what he did on Day 1. What I had said on Day 0 is irrelevant to that. I wasn't gonna lynch Golden because of that, and honestly I wouldn't do it even if I were a baddie, considering how silly the whole situation was. A joke post is a joke post, it doesn't have to be more than that.

On day 1, I had a personal RL problem I'm not interesting in discussing. As such, I barely had a chance to catch up in the posts. I voted Sloonei based on a gut feeling, and I'll admit I was kind of lucky.

Then Night 1 came, I started looking for other players, and the suspicion on Golden (and also espers), based on their D1 votes, started.

The reason I did not talk about other players during Day 2 is that I said everything I could in Night 1. Afterwards, we had a day that was strictly focused on 4 players only. I did not give any opinions on the other 3, because I simply did not think of any of them as possible mafia. My opinion on Long Con is that he was looking like a civ. Russtifinko was completely neutral because he had barely posted. I had no idea what to think of MM, and I still don't, only having as a possible suspect because this kind of unreadable player bugs me.

Why didn't I say anything? Well, I'm avoiding talking about players I see as civ unless I feel the need to. In my experience, that only helps mafia choose who they'll kill in the night, as you just saw happen with ninja. I'm taking an approach of focusing on the ones I suspect, and leaving the rest alone unless I see the need to defend them.

[Russtifinko]

Ok! I am back from hiking. And it seems like it went a lot better than Rico's - my only injury is a mild sunburn on both knees, of all places. Hope you get better soon!

Anyway, despite my best intentions, the first thing I did when I reached my apartment was catch up. So here are my responses to things I noticed. I'll try to break it up to avoid being mega-posty.

First off, RIP Scotty, llama, Golden, and Ninja Blooper. I don't have any reason to think any of you were bad, and all of you could have been huge assets. Pretty rough 2-day stretch following the hot start.

And I think llama may have been the comedian. It's why he went all supatown.

I know Golden is dead, but MP and a number of others have echoed the sentiment, so maybe one of you could answer. I guess I'm having trouble understanding the logic here. doesn't llama using the Comedian's NK so early because he was being NK'ed himself presuppose that he knew he was going to be NK'ed? I've never played a game where hosts tell players in advance they're going to be NK'ed.

That said, the self-certainty of the move is reminiscent of llama, but I don't think this role match is the sure thing some people re making it out to be.

EBWOP: it should be noted that MANY of Elo's posts on Day 1 were interactions with Sloonei. Would a teammate be more likely to engage heavily with Sloonei or avoid interacting with him?

Regarding this and your review of her posts, I think she'd be less likely to interact significantly with a baddie teammate. Between this and the D1 vote timing, I'm feeling better about having backed off of Elo on Day 1.

I self-voted. I don't feel comfortable voting anyone else right now, and I have to place my vote now.

Metalmarsh, i'd like to know your rationale for this. I saw in rym #86 that you like your WIFOM, but I can't really make any sense of a person self-voting from my perspective. were you really that afraid of missing the vote?

I can think of one very good reason.

So I'm reading this as you saying MM is playing the "Don't kill me, Mr. Rorschach, sir!" angle. Is that right, or are you suggesting there's more to it?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also, DH, for someone who accuses me on not doing any work to explain why I didn't vote for specific players, you have made no work to explain why you voted Long Con. You only said this:

Lets start with me:

I don't find me suspicious at all. To explain my D2 vote for whoever asked, I didn't find Golden suspect and I was not about to go back on my word from earlier. Long Con was the best option for my money out of the other 3.

And this explains jack shit. Why did you vote LC? Why did you think he was suspicious? Do you still think that?

Personally, I had a good feeling on Long Con yesterday, he was making useful points and being contributive. I didn't say anything because I don't see any profit in braodcasting that you think someone looks civ when they are not actually in danger of being lynched.

What about you?

[Russtifinko]

SO I have yet to read anything past my last post which was in reference to niju being killed. Her death saddens me. She is too cool to be killed off so early. Anyway....that said, I just want to say how much I hate these rainbow lists. Find me suspicious if you want but I haven't liked them from the beginning. MP ranks Niju as his top read of civilian and then she dies. It's like saying...."hey baddies, this is the person you should kill next." I know I have picked on you a lot this game MP. I don't mean anything by it, really. Your list the just the one I found first.

- nijuukyugou is my new top read, and I'm willing to take a strong stand. She seems consistently genuine, her hesitance to pile onto Golden today bodes well, and her vote from D1 still stands out as very strong. That said, I hope to see even more baddie hunting from her. And I still am going to continue to examine and question her intentions as much as everyone else, if not even more so, but right now I have to admit that she looks better than all the rest of you.

Okay, so I just wanted to mention that. I have to get back to school now and do a little housework and then I will catch up on everything that's been said so far today. I have a splitting headache from staying up until 2am with Epi and Niju. I am SO old! And I didn't even have one drop to drink. Epi drank beer all evening and is totally fine. I don't get it.

The beer preserves him, Elo!

MP, sorry man, but I have to agree with Elo on this one. I get that you need to express your thoughts, but I think posting an absolute top civ read is detrimental to our cause. You're one of the most vocal players, which gives you a lot of clout, and (assuming for the moment you're civ) you joining forces with any other strong player would terrify most baddies. It seems an easy call for them to eliminate that person because it makes them a bigger threat. I think you could do just as much good and less harm by posting a general list of civ reads without singling out one person as the most civ ever.

[DharmaHelper]

Also, DH, for someone who accuses me on not doing any work to explain why I didn't vote for specific players, you have made no work to explain why you voted Long Con. You only said this:

Lets start with me:

I don't find me suspicious at all. To explain my D2 vote for whoever asked, I didn't find Golden suspect and I was not about to go back on my word from earlier. Long Con was the best option for my money out of the other 3.

And this explains jack shit. Why did you vote LC? Why did you think he was suspicious? Do you still think that?

Personally, I had a good feeling on Long Con yesterday, he was making useful points and being contributive. I didn't say anything because I don't see any profit in braodcasting that you think someone looks civ when they are not actually in danger of being lynched.

What about you?

[DharmaHelper]

Eloh Thoughts:

Early on, very jokey

Civ reads on Cookie/DDL/MP/Golden

Uneasy reads on G-Man/Sloonei

Backtracks on Sloonei suspicion

Returns to it as a "save herself" option

Likes MP's Scotty case

ends up voting for Sloonei

More jokey

Theory that there MUST be a baddie among the poll of four

LC jumps out to her as most suspect/fishy

Then she is "on the fence" RE:LC

Votes for MM for his self voting

Conclusions:

Eloh's overly jokey attitude strikes me as trying to seem like she's not a threat. Couple that with her inconsistent voting/suspects, and its not looking good. She jumped on then off then back onto Sloonei. Her vote for Sloonei Day 1 could be a point in her favor, as I believe some people have brought up the idea of "why wouldn't she just vote niju to save Sloonei." To that I say, in my re-reading of Eloh's posts she did not once bring up Niju as a suspect. For someone who had at the time already been very inconsistent, a vote to lynch niju would have (if Eloh is mafia) basically killed two of the three mafia for the sake of one lynch.

Her Day 2 vote to create a tie is also kind of suspect, considering her thoughts on LC prior.

Anyway, I don't think Eloh is a civ right now, but I'm not sold on her being mafia either. Careful eye on her for now, unless we get a message from L.

[Russtifinko]

Please note that these analyses are based off looking for the Inmates only. In my short time back in action, I don't think I've played enough games with serial killers (I'm assuming that's what we're classifying Moloch as) to get back in the groove of sniffing them out. This setup is very difficult because the typical mafia team (the Inmates) only has three members. Considering we caught one of those three members on Day 1, it is going to be very difficult to track the other two. We have to look for small patterns and vote sequences that might suggest a collaborative effort between two players.

Day 1 vote data is in the spoiler tag. Please look refer to it as you read over my assessments.

Spoiler: show

DAY 1 RESULTS:

1. TIMMER (Timmer)<---Player = ???? (REASON: RL keeping him out of game yet)
2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE (REASON: wishy-washy on G-Man and hollow support of Llama)
3. NIJU (MM89)<---Player = ???? (REASON: No explanation given between vote #2 and #4- further reading needed)
4. G-MAN (LoRab)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Finds G-Man suspicious, no elaboration given- phrasing perhaps?)
5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Feels something is off with Sloonei)
6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Elo feels too light-hearted this game)
7. SCOTTY (Bass)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Buddied up to MP and not giving his own suspicions)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Sloonei being too defensive)
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)<---Player = ???? (REASON: [Given after he voted] Something off with Sloonei)
10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = ???? (REASON: LoRab making mountains out of molehills and calls BS on her assertion nothing is going on D1)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Had an a-ha moment on Scotty & his Elo vote was "weak")
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN (REASON: Voted in a rush without catching up from earlier)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Some of his responses felt scummy)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Always suspects Elo so he gave her a break & voted his #2)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)<---Player = ???? (REASON: "Impossible to fully address")
16. SLOONEI (espers)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Not buying Sloonei's defense- something's off)

NOT VOTING: Cookie, G-Man, Long Con


ALTERNATE FORMAT:

5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Feels something is off with Sloonei)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Sloonei being too defensive)
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)<---Player = ???? (REASON: [Given after he voted] Something off with Sloonei)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Some of his responses felt scummy)
16. SLOONEI (espers)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Not buying Sloonei's defense- something's off)


2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE (REASON: wishy-washy on G-Man and hollow support of Llama)
3. NIJU (MM89)<---Player = ???? (REASON: No explanation given between vote #2 and #4- further reading needed)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN (REASON: Voted in a rush without catching up from earlier)


4. G-MAN (LoRab)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Finds G-Man suspicious, no elaboration given- phrasing perhaps?)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Always suspects Elo so he gave her a break & voted his #2)


6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Elo feels too light-hearted this game)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)<---Player = ???? (REASON: "Impossible to fully address")


7. SCOTTY (Bass)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Buddied up to MP and not giving his own suspicions)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)<---Player = ???? (REASON: Had an a-ha moment on Scotty & his Elo vote was "weak")


1. TIMMER (Timmer)<---Player = ???? (REASON: RL keeping him out of game yet)


10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = ???? (REASON: LoRab making mountains out of molehills and calls BS on her assertion nothing is going on D1)


NOT VOTING:
Cookie<---Player = ????
G-Man<---Player = ????
Long Con<---Player = ????

What I infer from the Day 1 votes:

-I'm still not sure what to make of Timmer's self-vote. I like the warning about possibly pulling a Deborah but would he try that shtick again so soon?

-There is potential for espers to be Sloonei's teammate and he wanted to or was encouraged to throw that final vote on Sloonei for the cred. I like what espers said about feeling something was off about Sloonei. They have played elsewhere before, right? Knowing meta is a powerful item on the tool belt, so I feel compelled to respect that. This leaves me feeling only neutral on espers, unlike the other Sloonei voters.

-LoRab's vote on me came before Sloonei picked up any votes. This is important because we should look for desperate votes after the Sloonei train picks up steam. LoRab focused on the LD issue in regards to my post. I already looked suspicious before any of that because I was more aggressive, assertive, and less playful than usual. Rather than trying to use the "he's different and that's sus" angle that had been mentioned, she comes at it from an angle with a unique twist by suggesting I was trying to evade the LD power. To let my tin-foil hatted hamster out of his cage for a moment, consider this: Both Sloonei vote and LoRab's vote came before Sloonei had any votes. Sure there was discussion but could it be that the two of them are teammates and they tried to divide and conquer by voting for two potential victims that could attract more votes. Unfortunately for them, any momentum for Niju and myself died down as the momentum on Sloonei ramped up.

-Russ's vote for me was crap but not crap enough for me to shift him off of a neutral read.

-After this we have MP07 joining in on Bass's vote for Scotty. MP07 went from being cordial with Scotty, to asking a question or two, to doubting the sincerity of his contributions and the soundness of his vote for Elo. He openly agrees with Bass and then adds a few more points for other people to consider. This after his suspicion of Sloonei eroded bit by bit over the course of the day. In short, MP07 seems to have built a case on why Scotty is suspicious while also posting several points on why Sloonei probably shouldn't be suspicious. All this occurs as MP07 votes for Scotty, making it a 3-2-2 race between Sloonei, Niju, and Scotty. With Niju being NK'd by the Inmates, we know that MP07 adding Scotty to the mix wasn't an attempt to save Niju. Could it have been an attempt to save Sloonei?

Something where someone was talking about me seems like the easiest place to sink my teeth in. Here goes. (I edited the quote above for length, so only the parts I'm responding to are there):

G-Man, this vote analysis format is cool, but I'm not totally understanding your color scheme here. Maybe you could provide a key for those of us new to this?

You're slightly mischaracterizing my vote here in saying I ONLY voted for you in order to not vote Elo, with no other reasoning. I thought (and still think) it was strange that you were so circumspect with your wording.

That said, your numerous explanations have made me feel a little better about it. More to the point, this is my first game seeing you post words, and your style over the last few days definitely cements you in my mind as a very careful thinker and something of a microanalyzer. So I think now that the careful wording is probably just in character for you.

Re: your timmer explanation, what is a Deborah?

I'd have to read espers to develop an opinion there, since I don't have one as of my first thread read-through.

I'm not really buying the LoRab angle on the D1 vote. You're saying you think two baddie teammates tried to start lynch trains on two separate people to save Sloonei before she got any votes? With only 3 of them total, it seems crazy to me that they'd split up their voting power so early if they thought Sloonei might need defending.

To me, honestly Golden's vote looks the worst here, and we know Golden was civ. So I guess at this point I'm a bit skeptical about MP's "treasure trove of D1 evidence" claim. I think MP's vote looks bad at first glance, because it came in late-ish for a non-Sloonei but early enough to be a very, very long-shot save attempt. However, throwing teammates under the bus is something MP has added to his game more recently, and it would have made more sense to try that here than to go for the save IMO. Also, MP's content has felt super classic good-guy MP to me so far.

So if anything, to me the currently most suspicious D1 vote is espers. Keep in mind, a baddie voting late in a lynch for a teammate actually has a LOWER risk than a civ doing the same thing, because they know they won't end up on Rorschach's hit list.

Linki: I dunno. I suppose Elo could be bad, but when she voted Sloonei it was tied up with Blooper. I dunno if I see a mafia Elo giving up on a teammate so early.

[Elohcin]

If you'll notice, Golden did not have Blooper first on his rainbow list. In fact, I'm the only one that called her my top read, if I recall correctly (and I'm pretty sure about this).

It's possible the mafia are fucking with me by killing off my top reads (they killed llama N1 and Blooper N2, both of my top reads), but to automatically think that the mafia are blindly following the opinions of just ONE individual is not worth cancelling my rainbow reads. I want everyone to know everything that I'm thinking.

I hate to even say this b/c I really feel like you are civilian. But, it could be that you are Mafia and killing off your own top reads.

'Sticking with Elo' meant voting her for her back and forth on Sloonei, which I still found odd at that time. She even decided to go along with Sloonei with roughly 10 minutes to go, after returning for the deadline with 30 minutes to go, making it hard for me to inquire her properly in the time left.

It was actually an hour before days end and it was a sufficient amount of time to read the thread and vote. I had originally said that sloonei gave me a scummy vibe. He challenged me to reread him. I did and found nothing notably scummy in his posts when reading them separately from he thread. So, I told him I would table my thoughts on him for the day. After getting back from my day out with the family, I read his posts while I was gone and they were definitely scummy IMO. I voted him. That was it.

Eloh Thoughts:

Early on, very jokey

Civ reads on Cookie/DDL/MP/Golden

Uneasy reads on G-Man/Sloonei

Backtracks on Sloonei suspicion

Returns to it as a "save herself" option

Likes MP's Scotty case

ends up voting for Sloonei

More jokey

Theory that there MUST be a baddie among the poll of four

LC jumps out to her as most suspect/fishy

Then she is "on the fence" RE:LC

Votes for MM for his self voting

As for "very jokey", I like to have fun in Mafia. I have said this over and over again. It is like my only adult interaction. I know that is sad. I already explained my back and forth on sloonei several times. As for the "four on the poll" I thought Epi put those names on there but I was corrected that another player picked them. That made more sense. Just b/c I think LC is the most suspicious of the four doesn't mean I cannot be "on the fence" about him at the same time. Once I found out that it was possible that none of the four were bad, I wasn't comfortable voting LC. I voted MM for voting himself b/c I think voting one's self is stupid.

[DharmaHelper]

Once I found out that it was possible that none of the four were bad, I wasn't comfortable voting LC

Uh, what.

[DharmaHelper]

Espers Thoughts:
Notes MP's change in style
Calls DDL out for Fluffing
Pinged by Cookie's fearfulness
Defended Niju
Notes Timmer's self vote
Defends Sloonei RE: Adverbs
More DDL fluffing talk
Would vote for DDL
Votes Sloonei based on "overwraught defense" (?)
Not feeling good about Niju lynch
Claims his vote would have been useless on DDL
Claims he suspected Sloonei earlier, but did not mention it
Claims he was not defending Sloonei
Wants to focus on Sloonei interactions
No Day 2 vote

Conclusions:

It's possible that this is just me, but I tend to regard players whose votes are dependent on the crowd mentality very poorly. Dropping ones suspect (particularly one that he'd been talking about for some time, and he had time to vote for), in favor of Sloonei is odd. Especially given that Espers went out on a limb to defend (yes, defend) Sloonei againt llama's adverb accusation. What is even more odd is the assertion that he suspected Sloonei all along, but did not verbalize it in the thread. I'm pretty confident that espers is up to something, and wouldn't mind putting my vote there.

[Ricochet]

'Sticking with Elo' meant voting her for her back and forth on Sloonei, which I still found odd at that time. She even decided to go along with Sloonei with roughly 10 minutes to go, after returning for the deadline with 30 minutes to go, making it hard for me to inquire her properly in the time left.

It was actually an hour before days end and it was a sufficient amount of time to read the thread and vote. I had originally said that sloonei gave me a scummy vibe. He challenged me to reread him. I did and found nothing notably scummy in his posts when reading them separately from he thread. So, I told him I would table my thoughts on him for the day. After getting back from my day out with the family, I read his posts while I was gone and they were definitely scummy IMO. I voted him. That was it.

I only have your posts as reference, that's why I said 30 minutes to go, overall they looked like this (i.e. everything you said on Sloonei D1)

Jul 16 - 7:54pm* - something scummy about Sloonei, but can't put my finger on it
Jul 16 - 9:35pm - I re-read you Sloonei, I can't find anything that points to you being scummy
Jul 17 - 3:32am - [nothing on Sloonei, except a half-jokey, half-redirect reply to MP noticing you pickin' and droppin' Sloonei just like he did]
Jul 17 - 3:50am - I'm still going back and forth on Sloonei, why does he find me suspicious for not finding him suspicious
Jul 17 - 3:57am - [The only reply to my questioning on your change of views on him. ]
Jul 17 - 3:58am - voting Sloonei

deadline was at 4:02am, if I recall correctly

I didn't have any means to take into account that you came back an hour before the deadline, since you don't announce it. I could only work with what you openly posted.

*Rico time, sorry I fail at time zones

[Ricochet]

Once I found out that it was possible that none of the four were bad, I wasn't comfortable voting LC

Doesn't the prospect of all four candidates not being bad apply to all of them being "uncomfortable" to vote, in that case? You just voted MM, then, because he's MM and voted himself before going absent for the entire Day? You didn't vote timmer when he voted himself before going absent for the entire previous Day.

[DharmaHelper]

G-Man Thoughts

Early bout with Golden
Finds DDL suspect
Argues RE: giving good players a pass, policy lynching
Llama "fishing" comments
Golden thing was joking around
Would vote Golden if needed/Fall back vote
Lie Detecting statements taking flak
Missed D1 vote
Lots of rehashing
On the fence RE: DDL
DDL's muddy math is odd
LoRab is "curious"
MP asks Scotty an "unfair question"
Finds MP "forced and flimsy"

Golden's vote feels "calculated"
Comments RE:Rico
MPs "Weak" criticisms re: Sloonei voters
Defending/Supporting Scotty
Looking back on Timmer/MM
Some more Golden suspecting
Turnaround on Golden because it seems too easy
vote on Russ

The rest is analysis I may or may not read later.

Conclusion:

Toughest one yet because for a while there it felt like I was in some kind of time loop. I don't find G-Man suspicious right now.

[DharmaHelper]

Oh christ I still have to read MP.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Oh christ I still have to read MP.

Well I already did that job for you if you want. So no one has to go through this. But suit yourself.

<evil laugh>

[G-Man]

Oh christ I still have to read MP.

No one says you have to. It's and all to strive to be the perfectly-informed voter but sometimes perfect is the enemy of the good.

[Ricochet]

Or since R comes after M, we can leave all this and go grab a beer and watch gladiators fight or somethin'.

[DharmaHelper]

Long Con Thoughts:

Missed Day 1/Day 1 vote
Bass/LoRab are suspect for LD flak
Eloh is noteable
Eloh/Sloonei exchange "distancing or attempt to lynch a civ?"
Golden ping RE: Sloonei
Golden ping increases
His top 4: Bass, Golden, Lorab, Eloh
Civ feels on Russ/MM
Suspects MP
Thought MM was the comedian, now "unsure"
Votes Golden

Conclusion: My pings regarding LC were in most parts due to his lack of engagement/activity. Re-Reading him, he makes some good points regarding LoRab and MP in particular. I don't think I will vote for him again any time soon.

[Elohcin]

@ Rico, I thought you were talking about the vote when we were voting one of the four. That was the night I had an hour to catch up. You are right....the night when Sloonei was lynched, I didn;t have much time at all to catch up, but it was enough to see his responses to my posts and think he was bad for it.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Conclusion: My pings regarding LC were in most parts due to his lack of engagement/activity. Re-Reading him, he makes some good points regarding LoRab and MP in particular. I don't think I will vote for him again any time soon.

So basically you voted him for his inactivity on d1?

Not the best answer, since you pretty much ignored his d2 activity when you made the vote, though to be fair you were busy that day. But at least now you've explained the vote.

Still in my suspect list, though, for reasons I gave in the night.

[DharmaHelper]

Conclusion: My pings regarding LC were in most parts due to his lack of engagement/activity. Re-Reading him, he makes some good points regarding LoRab and MP in particular. I don't think I will vote for him again any time soon.

So basically you voted him for his inactivity on d1?

Not the best answer, since you pretty much ignored his d2 activity when you made the vote, though to be fair you were busy that day. But at least now you've explained the vote.

Still in my suspect list, though, for reasons I gave in the night.

OK.

Lorab Thoughts:
Suspects G-Man LD statments
Exchange w/ Sloonei regarding LD
"Not much to go on" Day 1
Typical twirly LoRab
Suspects LC for supporting G-Man
Drops LC as a suspect in favor of Golden
Says to Golden she didnt suspect any of the 4
Giving LC the BOTD
Vote bargaining with MP

I dont like how LoRab dropped LC as a suspect when given the opportunity. I think her exchange with Sloonei is the biggest point in her favor, but she's very sketchy. I don't trust her. Inb4

[DharmaHelper]

And that'll do it for me for now. Gonna go unwind.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

-> Stopping at the L

[Russtifinko]

Hmmm, having read back on espers he seems above-board to me so far. What he's brought to the discussion has been open and well-reasoned.

But idk who IS suspicious yet today. I feel like I'm stating back at Square One after missing yesterday - most of my reads so far are just slight gut and my "I always think _____ is ____." type stuff.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I like how I wrote a post suspecting 5 people and then 3 of them started posting huge analysis walls of text, which they hadn't before in this game.

I should suspect people more often.

[LoRab]

Conclusion: My pings regarding LC were in most parts due to his lack of engagement/activity. Re-Reading him, he makes some good points regarding LoRab and MP in particular. I don't think I will vote for him again any time soon.

So basically you voted him for his inactivity on d1?

Not the best answer, since you pretty much ignored his d2 activity when you made the vote, though to be fair you were busy that day. But at least now you've explained the vote.

Still in my suspect list, though, for reasons I gave in the night.

OK.

Lorab Thoughts:
Suspects G-Man LD statments
Exchange w/ Sloonei regarding LD
"Not much to go on" Day 1
Typical twirly LoRab
Suspects LC for supporting G-Man
Drops LC as a suspect in favor of Golden
Says to Golden she didnt suspect any of the 4
Giving LC the BOTD
Vote bargaining with MP

I dont like how LoRab dropped LC as a suspect when given the opportunity. I think her exchange with Sloonei is the biggest point in her favor, but she's very sketchy. I don't trust her. Inb4

My low level of of disipated as he started to post. And I partly brought him up for the sake of getting him to post.

And you keep taking my boy much to go on comment out of context. It was merely a response to sloonei asking if I had additional suspects. And where did I vote bargain with mp?

I'm not asking for your trust. I appreciate the suspicion. But I'm not bad.

[DharmaHelper]

MP--want to decide how to play this out?

Obviously Golden votes MM. One of us then can vote MM, and it's back to a tie. Which leaves the other of us to decide where the vote goes. Or we both vote for one person. Or you just descide to screw it and not vote. What's your thinking on this, mr sock?

[Ricochet]

My succint as possible attempt at player re-reads is failing stupendously at being succint and I'm down to G-Man, MP and couple more, so I'm pretty sure I'll die from exhaustion tonight, but stay in touch.

[LoRab]

Ah. Didn't think of that as vote bargaining more just figuring out how the vote was going to play out with the other non voting and likely to vote player (whom I forgot was silenced). And talking out loud how the vote might play out.

[Tangrowth]

Hey all! I'm here. Unfortunately, I'm still not quite done with my assignment. Almost there. But I have to make rerun some tests and the WRDS server is taking forever, so I'm here.

I'm going to catch up now. Who is here to discuss?

[Elohcin]

I am here, MP We just finished dinner.

[Tangrowth]

Okay, I have results. And I need to get this mf'er done.

What I want to know: For those of you who are here, which players are you considering for your vote? Why?

I'll be back in like 10-15 minutes.

[Elohcin]

Hey Jules! I can see you Sup?

[Golden]

Golden waz here

[Elohcin]

Golden waz here

[Elohcin]

I just found you on FB, Golden. I saw your crazy hair/sunglasses pic on Bea's page

[timmer]

Here for a minute. Is there anyone who can point to or summarize the current cases on people? I'll be able to pop in for a few minutes later before the deadline, but I'm not going to have time to properly catch up.

[Elohcin]

So, I honestly don't know who to vote for today. So many people haven't been around. Are they forgetting its a 24 hour day? LC better not come in here with that excuse again. :P

I'm still a little worried G-Man and LC may be mafia. I also wonder about Scotty for reasons others have stated.

[Tangrowth]

Catching up now.

timmer, I'll try to make sure either I or someone else gets to this.

Meanwhile, I hope people can openly discuss which names they're throwing around in their head, so we can go from there.

I'll go ahead and throw three out there: Cookie, DDL, and espers. Everyone that is here: Are you considering any of these candidates for your vote? Why or why not?

[Tangrowth]

So, I honestly don't know who to vote for today. So many people haven't been around. Are they forgetting its a 24 hour day? LC better not come in here with that excuse again. :P

I'm still a little worried G-Man and LC may be mafia. I also wonder about Scotty for reasons others have stated.

Elo, Scotty is dead. He was NKed N1 by the one-shot civilian ninja (the Comedian).

Why are you worried about G-Man and LC?

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Okay, I have results. And I need to get this mf'er done.

What I want to know: For those of you who are here, which players are you considering for your vote? Why?

I'll be back in like 10-15 minutes.

Either DH or espers. Reasonings already given.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also, I love how you all call the vigilante a ninja, when ninja is traditionally a completely different role.

[Tangrowth]

Okay, I have results. And I need to get this mf'er done.

What I want to know: For those of you who are here, which players are you considering for your vote? Why?

I'll be back in like 10-15 minutes.

Either DH or espers. Reasonings already given.

You don't believe DharmaHelper has shown town tells today? Why?

[juliets]

Hey Jules! I can see you Sup?

Hey Eloh, just following what I can of the game .

[Elohcin]

Shoot, I must be thinking someone else...all these new names