Watchmen [ENDGAME]

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Who deserves justice?

Poll ended at Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:42 pm

Dragon D. Luffy
3
30%
Made
0
No votes
Ricochet
0
No votes
Russtifinko
1
10%
Cancer (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
6
60%
 
Total votes: 10
Ricochet
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1401

Post by Ricochet »

Nice! BIH espers/ika
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Tangrowth
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1402

Post by Tangrowth »

Oh, I see it now.

Wow. Awesome! BIH Espers / ika. :dance:

Well done, folks.
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Dragon D. Luffy
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Re: Watchmen [Day 4]

#1403

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote: Do you really think I need to convince anyone that I'm doing something this game?
No.

But you need to convince us you are doing it with the intent to catch baddies.
If you really don't think I've made every action this game with the intent to catch baddies, then by all means, vote for me. I don't know what else I could possibly do. This is supatown MP. I've put literally every bit of time and thought into this game that I possibly can.
That's what scares me. Because I don't know mafia MP. I wish I did, but I don't. But mafia MP can't be that different from supatown MP. Otherwise you'd be a terrible baddie player, and I don't think you are.

It's hard to attack high-effort players like you because you have all the effort to show. But mafia can be high-effort too. I can't give you a pass for that.

In the end, all I can do is vote analysis. Because votes are the only thing in mafia that never lies. And I'm not liking what yours are telling me.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1404

Post by Scotty »

Once again, GOOOO TEAMMMMM. espers was my 3rd choice- glad we got em!
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1405

Post by Elohcin »

Yeah baby! :) Boo you ika.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1406

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Nice. BIH ika. gg town

I had a feeling this would happen as soon as MP voted for Cookie.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 4]

#1407

Post by Tangrowth »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote: Do you really think I need to convince anyone that I'm doing something this game?
No.

But you need to convince us you are doing it with the intent to catch baddies.
If you really don't think I've made every action this game with the intent to catch baddies, then by all means, vote for me. I don't know what else I could possibly do. This is supatown MP. I've put literally every bit of time and thought into this game that I possibly can.
That's what scares me. Because I don't know mafia MP. I wish I did, but I don't. But mafia MP can't be that different from supatown MP. Otherwise you'd be a terrible baddie player, and I don't think you are.

It's hard to attack high-effort players like you because you have all the effort to show. But mafia can be high-effort too. I can't give you a pass for that.

In the end, all I can do is vote analysis. Because votes are the only thing in mafia that never lies. And I'm not liking what yours are telling me.
I'm not saying you should give me a pass. By any means.

I can understand your perspective, at least. Like always, if you have questions, let me know. As I've said, I am NOT this clumsy of a baddie. I actually get way more nervous defending my teammates than I do throwing them under the bus. It's less risky to me to throw teammates under, especially in a one mafia game, than risk saving your teammate for another day at the expense of being automatic dead meat the moment your teammates does get lynched.

Analyzing interactions between espers and other players might be illuminating, since espers made it through Day 3. It's difficult to discern whether the remaining teammate would have thrown him under the bus, thinking he was dead meat going into today after almost dying yesterday, or did not vote for him.

I'm exhausted, though, so I'm signing off from this game for the night. :offtobed:
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1408

Post by Scotty »

On my shortlist- MP, MM. Cookie seems good to me based purely on that vote she made.

How do you think you fared on your vote today, MP?

You still believe Cookie is bad after that?

linki- ok g'night MP!
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1409

Post by Elohcin »

IF MP is bad, I will be blown away. He's played a good baddie game. But, DDL does make some good points about his EoD behavior and his vote doesn't look so good today. I will be taking a good look at everyone and the voting records over the next 47 hours.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1410

Post by Scotty »

Also LoRab made the vote that sunk Michael.

Keep that in mind...
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1411

Post by Russtifinko »

BOOM! Good job team! 2 baddies down.

This should've happened a day ago, which is a bummer. A number of people could've and should've changed that, probably with me at the top of the list. Better late than never, I guess.

Linki: Elo, do you mean you suspect MP more or less after that result? It wasn't clear to me from your post.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 4]

#1412

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

MovingPictures07 wrote:I also feel like you're holding me to a double standard, DDL, that you aren't meeting yourself.
I see your point, and indeed the accuracy of my votes has been below average.

But it's not just the accuracy that pings me, it is how your reads progress along a phase, how they turn into a vote, and effect that has on the poll.

And they always tell me the same story: that you're trying to stay out of trouble.

As a matter of fact, do you know what the accuracy of your votes is? A random number between 0-100%. Because every player you've voted is still alive, so I can't know it. Of course, that's highly WIFOM-y, but maybe that's intentional of you?

I'm gonna do ISOs of your days 3 and 4 tomorrow to elaborate this.

Anyway, I'm very sorry if I've insulted you. I hate to do that. I don't think you are bad at mafia, just that you are a bad (sorry for the pun lol).
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1413

Post by ika »

the funny thing about it all is that my real life name is michael :P
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1414

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Scotty wrote:Also LoRab made the vote that sunk Michael.

Keep that in mind...
Could LoRab have saved him, though? The only thing she could have done would be to vote Cookie, and then pray to the RNG gods, which upon a possible ika lynch would have placed a MAFIA sign above her head.

Otherwise she could be Moloch.

Or MP could be Moloch, and he is trying to stay out of trouble while he does... whatever Moloch needs to do.

Damn this Moloch roles makes it so confusing.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1415

Post by Elohcin »

Russtifinko wrote:BOOM! Good job team! 2 baddies down.

This should've happened a day ago, which is a bummer. A number of people could've and should've changed that, probably with me at the top of the list. Better late than never, I guess.

Linki: Elo, do you mean you suspect MP more or less after that result? It wasn't clear to me from your post.
more. Honestly I hadn;t suspected him at all and probably wouldn't have if DDL hasn't brought up his thoughts on him.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1416

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

I swear, after we catch Big Figure this game is gonna get insane. I think I'll have to rework all of my reads.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1417

Post by LoRab »

Scotty wrote:Also LoRab made the vote that sunk Michael.

Keep that in mind...
I admit that my vote was partly to make sure I saved myself. I don't want to make it seem like more than it was. But a 1 vote lead means that vote manipulation can happen (secret roles mean we don't know that it isn't there), so I wanted to vote to give a good lead for the person ahead of me, whom I also found suspicious. I don't want to take away from people thinking I'm less suspish because of my vote, but I also don't want to appear falsely altruistic.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Scotty wrote:Also LoRab made the vote that sunk Michael.

Keep that in mind...
Could LoRab have saved him, though? The only thing she could have done would be to vote Cookie, and then pray to the RNG gods, which upon a possible ika lynch would have placed a MAFIA sign above her head.

Otherwise she could be Moloch.

Or MP could be Moloch, and he is trying to stay out of trouble while he does... whatever Moloch needs to do.

Damn this Moloch roles makes it so confusing.
Unless Cookie is also bad. Actually, how do you know Cookie isn't bad?

And, no, I am not Moloch. Also not mafia.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1418

Post by Scotty »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Scotty wrote:Also LoRab made the vote that sunk Michael.

Keep that in mind...
Could LoRab have saved him, though? The only thing she could have done would be to vote Cookie, and then pray to the RNG gods, which upon a possible ika lynch would have placed a MAFIA sign above her head.

Otherwise she could be Moloch.

Or MP could be Moloch, and he is trying to stay out of trouble while he does... whatever Moloch needs to do.

Damn this Moloch roles makes it so confusing.
loRab could have tied it, yes. Could she have set that up to look more civ because she knew it would look better? Yes. She is a competent player, after all, so I wouldn't put it past her. But for now I'm not looking at her for the same reasons I'm not looking with a huge lens on Elo after her day 1 vote on Sloonei.

Linki- LoRab, it would look sketchier if you put it on Cookie, tbh, so now that you are questioning whether or not she is good is putting my lens back on you. Congratulations. I just changed my view in one post.
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1419

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

LoRab wrote:Unless Cookie is also bad. Actually, how do you know Cookie isn't bad?

And, no, I am not Moloch. Also not mafia.
There is only one Inmate alive. If you are both bad, then one of you is Moloch, and this analysis stops making sense since you would both vote for each other without a second thought.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1420

Post by DharmaHelper »

:rolleyes:
our Linkitis is our lives.

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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1421

Post by LoRab »

Scotty wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Scotty wrote:Also LoRab made the vote that sunk Michael.

Keep that in mind...
Could LoRab have saved him, though? The only thing she could have done would be to vote Cookie, and then pray to the RNG gods, which upon a possible ika lynch would have placed a MAFIA sign above her head.

Otherwise she could be Moloch.

Or MP could be Moloch, and he is trying to stay out of trouble while he does... whatever Moloch needs to do.

Damn this Moloch roles makes it so confusing.
loRab could have tied it, yes. Could she have set that up to look more civ because she knew it would look better? Yes. She is a competent player, after all, so I wouldn't put it past her. But for now I'm not looking at her for the same reasons I'm not looking with a huge lens on Elo after her day 1 vote on Sloonei.

Linki- LoRab, it would look sketchier if you put it on Cookie, tbh, so now that you are questioning whether or not she is good is putting my lens back on you. Congratulations. I just changed my view in one post.
I don't know if Cookie is good or not. So why wouldn't I question it? I don't vote based on what others will think. I vote based on whom I think is bad.

But thanks for thinking of me as competent.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
LoRab wrote:Unless Cookie is also bad. Actually, how do you know Cookie isn't bad?

And, no, I am not Moloch. Also not mafia.
There is only one Inmate alive. If you are both bad, then one of you is Moloch, and this analysis stops making sense since you would both vote for each other without a second thought.
I'm not bad. I know that--I realize that others do not. So my math is diferent. But your earlier post seemed to assume that Cookie wasn't bad. Which was what I was responding to.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 4]

#1422

Post by Russtifinko »

LoRab wrote: linkitis: @Russ: I so don't think of myself as legendary, so thanks. Really, I've just been playing for a long time. And, at some point, someone found a twirly smiley for me because I always post the "eye me all you want" thing and I get all twirly while I'm being eyed. But, about this game, I'm not trying to be frivolous. I'm just a bit quirky and think about things differently than a lot of players. I notice small details and figure things out from that. It's really just how I play.
Fair enough! Thanks for the response.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Can't say I'm shocked MP is suspecting me. Bring it on, chum!

Imma go ahead and vote espers/ika for tonight, though. I don't see anything convincing me otherwise, and someone's gotta get to the polls here.

Linki: Hmm. Well, MP, I guess to respond to the majority of your points, I haven't said most of the things I brought up because I haven't posted much at all about anything. As I said, that's changing today, so I'm saying what's on my mind.

As to being noncommittal, I feel like every time I've posted I've tried to be super clear about what I think of whom, since I haven't been posting much otherwise. Yeah, my mind has changed on some people, and yeah, since I haven't posted as much you haven't gotten to see the full progression of those changes. Saying I'm not committing too any reads is probably overplaying your hand tho.

Double Linki: Let me post! And stop it with the living rooms!
I understand, Russ. I just hope to see more thought process from you, because otherwise it's difficult to discern whether you are latching onto suspicions for convenience or whether you just haven't been fully articulating why you suspect whom you suspect. Does that make sense?
Yeah for sure. I'm on board with you there; I need to be posting more and making my train of thought easier to follow, and I appreciate you saying that that's the case.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Well, so much for the controlled manner of playing from MP.
Good to see it gone at least once. It's not mafia if you don't get pissed off on a daily basis.

We'll never gonna be able to read that guy unless we knock him out of his confort zone.
I actually agree with this, and from a game perspective I appreciated it even though it frustrated him. I think having pressure on him let me read MP better there. Fwiw he pretty much read as civvie MP to me in that interaction. Not to say I won't have my eye on him (I will), but it improved my gut read.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1423

Post by Russtifinko »

Wow, I saved that post for LoRab and there was so much linki I didn't even get to see most of it.

My opinion is the vote is decent evidence for LoRab not being the third mafia - Moloch is kind of a wild card, so who knows there.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1424

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

G-Man, this is the perfect time for one of your technicolor posts. Only one mafioso left other than the sk, so there are less possibilities to consider, and the voting was pretty close, with three different players leading.

Can you do it? Otherwise one of us could do in your place.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1425

Post by LoRab »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man, this is the perfect time for one of your technicolor posts. Only one mafioso left other than the sk, so there are less possibilities to consider, and the voting was pretty close, with three different players leading.

Can you do it? Otherwise one of us could do in your place.
Fewer. To echo an earlier thread discussion, I think you mean fewer.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1426

Post by Marmot »

Scotty wrote:On my shortlist- MP, MM. Cookie seems good to me based purely on that vote she made.

How do you think you fared on your vote today, MP?

You still believe Cookie is bad after that?

linki- ok g'night MP!
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1427

Post by G-Man »

LoRab wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:G-Man, this is the perfect time for one of your technicolor posts. Only one mafioso left other than the sk, so there are less possibilities to consider, and the voting was pretty close, with three different players leading.

Can you do it? Otherwise one of us could do in your place.
Fewer. To echo an earlier thread discussion, I think you mean fewer.
This! :beer:


Technicolors:

Day 1
Spoiler: show
DAY 1 RESULTS:

1. TIMMER/JULIETS (Timmer/juliets)
2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE
3. NIJU (MM89)
4. G-MAN (LoRab)
5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player NK'd by Comedian
7. SCOTTY (Bass/Tiny Bubbles)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)
10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN
11. SCOTTY (MP07)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)
16. SLOONEI (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE

NOT VOTING: Cookie, G-Man, Long Con


ALTERNATE FORMAT:

5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)
16. SLOONEI (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE


2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE
3. NIJU (MM89)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN


4. G-MAN (LoRab)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)


6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player NK'd by Comedian
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)


7. SCOTTY (Bass/TinyBubbles)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)


1. TIMMER/JULIETS (Timmer/juliets)


10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN


NOT VOTING:
Cookie
G-Man
Long Con<---Player NK'd by Inmates
Day 2
Spoiler: show
DAY 2 RESULTS:

1. METALMARSH89 (MM89)
2. GOLDEN (Timmer/juliets)
3. GOLDEN (Long Con)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
4. GOLDEN (Cookie)
5. GOLDEN (Dragon)
6. RUSSTIFINKO (G-Man)
7. LONG CON (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN
8. METALMARSH89 (Bass/Tiny Bubbles)
9. METALMARSH89 (Niju)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
10. METALMARSH89 (Elohcin)
11. GOLDEN (LoRab)
12. METALMARSH89 (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN

NOT VOTING: espers/ika, MP07, Ricochet, Russtifinko



ALTERNATE FORMAT:

2. GOLDEN (Timmer/juliets)
3. GOLDEN (Long Con)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
4. GOLDEN (Cookie)
5. GOLDEN (Dragon)
11. GOLDEN (LoRab)


1. METALMARSH89 (MM89)
8. METALMARSH89 (Bass/Tiny Bubbles)
9. METALMARSH89 (Niju)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
10. METALMARSH89 (Elohcin)
12. METALMARSH89 (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN


6. RUSSTIFINKO (G-Man)


7. LONG CON (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN


NOT VOTING:
espers/ika<---Player = INMATE
MP07
Ricochet
Russtifinko
Day 3
Spoiler: show
DAY 3 RESULTS:

1. ESPERS/IKA (DharmaHelper)<---Player = WATCHMAN
2. DHARMAHELPER (Dragon)
3. G-MAN (LoRab)
4. DHARMAHELPER (Cookie)
5. ESPERS/IKA (G-Man)
6. MOVINGPICTURES07 (Elohcin)
7. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)
8. COOKIE (MP07)

NOT VOTING: Bass/Tiny Bubbles, espers/ika (2), juliets, Long Con (2), MM89, Russtifinko (2)



ALTERNATE FORMAT:

2. DHARMAHELPER (Dragon)
4. DHARMAHELPER (Cookie)


1. ESPERS/IKA (DharmaHelper)<---Player = WATCHMAN
5. ESPERS/IKA (G-Man)


3. G-MAN (LoRab)


6. MOVINGPICTURES07 (Elohcin)


7. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)


8. COOKIE (MP07)


NOT VOTING:
Bass/Tiny Bubbles
espers/ika (2)<---Player = INMATE
juliets
Long Con (2)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
MM89
Russtifinko (2)
Day 4
Spoiler: show
DAY 4 RESULTS:

1. LORAB (MM89)
2. ESPERS/IKA (Russtifinko)
3. COOKIE (Scotty)
4. ESPERS/IKA (Cookie)
5. COOKIE (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE
6. LORAB (Dragon)
7. ESPERS/IKA (juliets)
8. ESPERS/IKA (Elohcin)
9. COOKIE (MP07)
10. LORAB (Ricochet)
11. ESPERS/IKA (LoRab)
12. METALMARSH89 (G-Man)

NOT VOTING: Bass/Tiny Bubbles (2*)


ALTERNATE FORMAT:

2. ESPERS/IKA (Russtifinko)
4. ESPERS/IKA (Cookie)
7. ESPERS/IKA (juliets)
8. ESPERS/IKA (Elohcin)
11. ESPERS/IKA (LoRab)


1. LORAB (MM89)
6. LORAB (Dragon)
10. LORAB (Ricochet)


3. COOKIE (Scotty)
5. COOKIE (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE
9. COOKIE (MP07)


12. METALMARSH89 (G-Man)


NOT VOTING:
Bass/Tiny Bubbles (2*)
Given that espers missed the vote both Day 2 an Day 3, I'm having trouble (initially) finding this round of technicolors to be very helpful. Maybe one of you will see something useful in here.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1428

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Actually, considering the timing for the ika voting, I think Russ, Eloh, juliets and Cookie all look good here. Or at least, "not Big Figure". Could all still be Moloch.

You could argue Cookie was saving herself, but she could have saved herself by voting LoRaB. She didn't. Neither did ika, who voted Cookie.

Of course, that's assuming they would never throw each other under the bus at this situation. Though there is this:
ika wrote:if im baddie, i tell my teammated how i play as baddie and what they need to do. i can try my darnest for them but i always give them the abloslute of bus me to hell. i gve adive to them and tell them who they need to stratiticly kill and set up long term plans and plans to back that if it fails. in short: i do but i suck at it and are a better planner
WIFOM pls? Why did he even bother to say this? No idea.

ika was in a really bad shape at this point so a sacrifice of him, although terrible in the long run, could spell good for his partner in the long run.

So the bottomline is, the meaning of this poll depends on how willing you think Big Figure was to sacrifice his teamate.

Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1429

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

although terrible in the short run*
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1430

Post by Tangrowth »

Good morning, thread! :coffee3:

Let me respond to some things shortly here.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1431

Post by Tangrowth »

Spoiler: show
Scotty wrote:On my shortlist- MP, MM. Cookie seems good to me based purely on that vote she made.

How do you think you fared on your vote today, MP?

You still believe Cookie is bad after that?

linki- ok g'night MP!
Scotty, I think I fared pretty badly today wrt my vote. I don't know. I feel like this is very similar to the Sloonei D1 situation, where I had a legitimate reason for finding the player-to-be-lynched suspicious, then second guessed myself too much, backed off, and went with a candidate that emerged later for a different reason.

I definitely do not believe Cookie is bad with the same fervor that I did previously. It is still possible, I suppose, but seems much less likely.
Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote:IF MP is bad, I will be blown away. He's played a good baddie game. But, DDL does make some good points about his EoD behavior and his vote doesn't look so good today. I will be taking a good look at everyone and the voting records over the next 47 hours.
Elohcin, how so? What points did DDL make about my EoD behavior that make you believe I am mafia? Can you elaborate?
Spoiler: show
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I also feel like you're holding me to a double standard, DDL, that you aren't meeting yourself.
I see your point, and indeed the accuracy of my votes has been below average.

But it's not just the accuracy that pings me, it is how your reads progress along a phase, how they turn into a vote, and effect that has on the poll.

And they always tell me the same story: that you're trying to stay out of trouble.

As a matter of fact, do you know what the accuracy of your votes is? A random number between 0-100%. Because every player you've voted is still alive, so I can't know it. Of course, that's highly WIFOM-y, but maybe that's intentional of you?

I'm gonna do ISOs of your days 3 and 4 tomorrow to elaborate this.

Anyway, I'm very sorry if I've insulted you. I hate to do that. I don't think you are bad at mafia, just that you are a bad (sorry for the pun lol).
Dragon D. Luffy, I understand. I even understand your interpretation (that I'm trying to stay out of trouble), but I assure you that is not the case. I'm putting literally everything out there. There's no way I can stay out of trouble or the spotlight by playing the way I've been playing. I am not complaining. It's a product of the way I've chosen to play this game. I want you and others to examine my posts.

I honestly had no idea that every player I've voted is still alive. It makes sense though. It's not intentional. Why would I want it to be intentional?

I look forward to your ISOs, I just hope you can see my behavior from every perspective.

No worries, man, you didn't insult me. If anything, you've done the opposite, because you're holding my play to a level of excellence that I'm clearly failing to meet.

In fact, I recognize I broke down a bit last night, and I'm currently still feeling a bit disheartened. I feel like, no matter what method of mafia hunting I try this game, I just haven't been able to execute confident reads on mafia players. So, by all means DDL, if you think it's because I've been trying to avoid the lynches of my teammates, then so be it, but nonetheless, I hope that you look hard at my posts and determine that is not the case. If you have questions about any of my behavior or vote thinking process, please ask, and I hope that I can illuminate my genuine thoughts for you.
Spoiler: show
Russtifinko wrote:
LoRab wrote: linkitis: @Russ: I so don't think of myself as legendary, so thanks. Really, I've just been playing for a long time. And, at some point, someone found a twirly smiley for me because I always post the "eye me all you want" thing and I get all twirly while I'm being eyed. But, about this game, I'm not trying to be frivolous. I'm just a bit quirky and think about things differently than a lot of players. I notice small details and figure things out from that. It's really just how I play.
Fair enough! Thanks for the response.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Can't say I'm shocked MP is suspecting me. Bring it on, chum!

Imma go ahead and vote espers/ika for tonight, though. I don't see anything convincing me otherwise, and someone's gotta get to the polls here.

Linki: Hmm. Well, MP, I guess to respond to the majority of your points, I haven't said most of the things I brought up because I haven't posted much at all about anything. As I said, that's changing today, so I'm saying what's on my mind.

As to being noncommittal, I feel like every time I've posted I've tried to be super clear about what I think of whom, since I haven't been posting much otherwise. Yeah, my mind has changed on some people, and yeah, since I haven't posted as much you haven't gotten to see the full progression of those changes. Saying I'm not committing too any reads is probably overplaying your hand tho.

Double Linki: Let me post! And stop it with the living rooms!
I understand, Russ. I just hope to see more thought process from you, because otherwise it's difficult to discern whether you are latching onto suspicions for convenience or whether you just haven't been fully articulating why you suspect whom you suspect. Does that make sense?
Yeah for sure. I'm on board with you there; I need to be posting more and making my train of thought easier to follow, and I appreciate you saying that that's the case.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Well, so much for the controlled manner of playing from MP.
Good to see it gone at least once. It's not mafia if you don't get pissed off on a daily basis.

We'll never gonna be able to read that guy unless we knock him out of his confort zone.
I actually agree with this, and from a game perspective I appreciated it even though it frustrated him. I think having pressure on him let me read MP better there. Fwiw he pretty much read as civvie MP to me in that interaction. Not to say I won't have my eye on him (I will), but it improved my gut read.
Russtifinko, I'm glad to see your reasoned response. I'm actually not sure what to make of it in terms of your alignment, so I still have my :eye: on you, but nonetheless I appreciate that you understand my POV.

Why did you read me as civilian during that interaction? What about my responses when DDL (and, to a lesser extent, Scotty) were applying pressure on me at EoD?
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1432

Post by Tangrowth »

Scotty, EBWOP:

Despite what I said above, I feel as though there were legitimate reasons for me to doubt my suspicions of both Sloonei and espers / ika, and reasons to suspect those I voted instead, in the moment, so I stand by my thought process. Nonetheless, it seems my methods have been coming up frustratingly short in key lynches.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1433

Post by Tangrowth »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Actually, considering the timing for the ika voting, I think Russ, Eloh, juliets and Cookie all look good here. Or at least, "not Big Figure". Could all still be Moloch.

You could argue Cookie was saving herself, but she could have saved herself by voting LoRaB. She didn't. Neither did ika, who voted Cookie.

Of course, that's assuming they would never throw each other under the bus at this situation. Though there is this:
ika wrote:if im baddie, i tell my teammated how i play as baddie and what they need to do. i can try my darnest for them but i always give them the abloslute of bus me to hell. i gve adive to them and tell them who they need to stratiticly kill and set up long term plans and plans to back that if it fails. in short: i do but i suck at it and are a better planner
WIFOM pls? Why did he even bother to say this? No idea.

ika was in a really bad shape at this point so a sacrifice of him, although terrible in the long run, could spell good for his partner in the long run.

So the bottomline is, the meaning of this poll depends on how willing you think Big Figure was to sacrifice his teamate.

Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
I think your conclusions here are logical, DDL, but I want to issue a warning for everyone wishing to analyze voting behavior:

1) Voting records are a tricky thing. Golden's voting record was bad, especially since he blatantly defended Sloonei, but he turned out to be a civilian who legitimately found nothing wrong with Sloonei's behavior. It appears as though my voting record is burning me in a similar fashion, although there are some unknowns (we don't know whether Cookie is bad, for instance). Also, let's keep in mind that espers has had significant heat ever since his D1 vote, so...

2) Be sure to analyze Day 3 as much as, if not even more so, than D4 voting records. Espers was tied for the lynch D3 and could have died then, so it's notable that, if Elo is the last teammate, she failed to vote for her teammate on D3, instead making a very suspicious vote throwing off onto me, then decided to bus him on D4.

I just think it's prudent that we consider every explanation for every player's behavior, then obviously we can make our own judgment as to what is occurring.

I'm going to provide rainbow reads (either half or full, not sure yet) shortly, after mulling over the D3 and D4 voting records.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1434

Post by Tangrowth »

Here is my updated half-Rainbow List:

Elohcin
G-Man
TinyBubbles / Bass_the_Clever


LoRab
Metalmarsh89


Dragon D. Luffy

Cookie

Elohcin's D3 vote (a throw off onto me) stinks heavily. Although her fourth vote on D4 secured espers/ika's fate, and her vote on D1 secured Sloonei's fate, she's still on my list, mainly thanks to her sketchy D3 EoD behavior.

G-Man's vote for Metalmarsh D4 was incredibly noncommittal and unsatisfying. That said, his D3 vote for espers could have killed him, so G-Man that keeps him at the top of my list, despite the still odd possible distancing from Sloonei on D1, and a lack of convincing baddie hunting lately from G-Man.

TinyBubbles has recently replaced Bass, whose behavior I found civilian-leaning for the earlier half of the game, but in recent periods, it's difficult to analyze behavior since it's been (understandably, perhaps) lacking.

LoRab's fifth vote for espers / ika sealed his fate firmly, but it's possible she felt comfortable bussing her teammate after it seemed his fate was pretty much over. She could easily defend her vote in the interest of self-defense as well. I will admit that I'm mostly keeping her on my list due to tenacity, so I need to ISO her to truly determine how I feel about her.

Metalmarsh89's lack of baddie hunting during D4, when I knew he was capable otherwise, combined with his tunnel vision on LoRab, can't help but look bad amid espers / ika's flip.

DDL's vote history is actually pretty bad, recently (voting for DH on D3 over espers, as well as LoRab on D4 over espers / ika), but he had a decisive vote for Sloonei on D1 that looks pretty solid. Need to ISO him.

Interestingly, it seems Cookie saved espers on Day 3, only to throw him under on Day 4. In my opinion, her stinky vote on Day 3 actually overrides any civilian cred gained from Day 4, so my eye is firmly on her still, even much more than I thought it would be.

All of this said, I need to make sure to keep in mind to consider all of these players' behavior from a civilian perspective, since I think such behavior can be found in each of these player's cases.

Note: I likely won't be back until Day 5, and won't be posting as much as I did Day 4. I apologize if I've made this game unfun or too difficult to keep up on for anyone. I realize I've posted a lot. I'm just trying to put my utmost into this game. Apparently, it hasn't worked very well. Nonetheless, please address me if you have questions.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1435

Post by Elohcin »

I am going to use the night to evaluate players and votes, but I have one particular person I am really convinced is the last mafia. I will share my thoughts and answer all questions during the day.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1436

Post by juliets »

Yippee!! Another baddie down.

More reading for me today and I hope to be back in later with some reads (though on second thought I might save those for tomorrow morning to avoid doing it at night).
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1437

Post by Tangrowth »

I just want to express my opinion that I think it might be best if players at least left some indication of what they're thinking before Night 4 ends. If you feel comfortable doing so closer to end of Night 4, that's fine, but we have no idea who's going to die tonight, and I think it's best that no one die with their thoughts. Having a confirmed civilian (pretty much, unless you're Moloch and die tonight, but I think that's unlikely) with thoughts puts all of town in a better position going forward, rather than wondering "I wonder what that near-confirmed town player was thinking?"

If you'd rather leave out the details, that's fine, but I don't necessarily think it's wise for us to leave anything important unsaid, especially since there's only one mafia member remaining.

It's why I left a half-rainbow. I can't imagine I'll die, but in case I do, at least now all of you will know what I was thinking.

However, you all may feel free to do as you wish.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1438

Post by juliets »

Epi what time does night end tonight?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1439

Post by Epignosis »

juliets wrote:Epi what time does night end tonight?
8:50pm EST
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1440

Post by juliets »

I am reading DDL at the moment - could someone tell me what "fluffing" means?
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1441

Post by Golden »

juliets wrote:I am reading DDL at the moment - could someone tell me what "fluffing" means?
Boy, did this take me straight back to high school. The 14 year old in me just did a little dance of glee.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1442

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

You people from the Syndicate have weird jargons, or in this case, lack of them.

Fluffing = anything off-topic.What we usually write in green in this forum.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1443

Post by juliets »

lol, we're not weird. We call it Off Topic (just like you said) but usually OT for short. Much less to type than fluffing.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1444

Post by juliets »

EBWOP: thank you DDL for your response.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: Sat Aug 21, 2021 3:24 pm Always good to remember that there is no such thing as a Mafia circumstance that is worth real human emotion. Sometimes it will naturally come out, but it can be contained if we just remember that this is a game on a message board forum that 99.99% of the population of the Earth has never heard of before. No matter how successful anyone is, it means just about nothing.

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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1445

Post by Marmot »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
Moloch is a serial killer? :suspish:
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1446

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
Moloch is a serial killer? :suspish:
Last Man Standing = Serial Killer in my book, even if he doesn't outright kill people. He probably has some other way of getting rid of opposition, though.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1447

Post by Marmot »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
Moloch is a serial killer? :suspish:
Last Man Standing = Serial Killer in my book, even if he doesn't outright kill people. He probably has some other way of getting rid of opposition, though.
What do you suggest? It is Night 4, and we've seen no kill from him.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1448

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

MP Days 3/4 Vote Analysis

Bear in mind that I'm focusing on suspicions and votes, so I'll ignore any post where MP isn't outright suspecting someone. A full analysis of everything the sock says in a game would probably require a PhD thesis.

Night 2 / Day 3
MovingPictures07 wrote:4) Updated Rainbow List
MP's Rainbow List - Night 2 (~24 Hours Remaining)
Changed the colors up a bit to make it look more like a rainbow! :yay:

I also removed the "No read or unsure", so that I HAD to commit to at least some read for every player.

This is how I am currently feeling about everyone in the game:
Spoiler: show
MovingPictures07 wrote:TASTE THE RAINBOW

nijuukyugou

Long Con

Bass_the_Clever
Metalmarsh89


Elohcin
Ricochet


Cookie
DharmaHelper
Dragon D. Luffy
LoRab
Russtifinko
timmer


espers
G-Man


For reference:
Very strong civilian read
Strong civilian read
Moderate civilian read
Slight civilian read
Very slight civilian read
Very slight mafia read
Slight mafia read
Moderate mafia read
Strong mafia read
Very strong mafia read
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Spoiler: show
- Dragon D. Luffy drops from slight civilian read all the way to very slight mafia read due to his Golden vote today, and the fact that he did little other baddie hunting (I realize others didn't either, but he posted plenty). I'm taking Golden's advice heavily into account and think he should be analyzed heavily going into the new Day period. Nonetheless, I am a bit hesitant to commit to more than a very slight mafia read at this time, since there have been more instances where I thought he seemed similar to Economics DDL versus Guess Who? DDL. I need to ISO his posts and mull over why it is I feel that way.

- I feel about the same about Russtifinko, I suppose, but inevitably have to drop him to very slight mafia read. I'm wondering what else he's thinking, hopefully this will catch his attention. He (due to RL, as he stated), wasn't able to contribute much today, and thus there isn't much to really base any thoughts off of just yet, although it isn't as though he hasn't contributed his thoughts when he's been able. That's fine. I have to say, I was a bit surprised to see the general consensus civilian reads from some on Russtifinko. I mean, I don't really feel bad about him, but it seems at least half of the thread found that there's nothing suspicious with him. Why is this?

- Still can't really make heads or tails of Cookie, LoRab, and timmer -- these have been the hardest players to read so far for me. Does anyone have any thoughts on them that they wish to share that they haven't already? I inevitably dropped Cookie and timmer because of their 'early' Golden votes. I understand if they had to vote early because of RL, but nonetheless, with a civilian Golden flip, their votes look worse. I also dropped LoRab, since I can't make heads or tails of her AT ALL, and it's a bit worrisome. I really have no clue what to think of her behavior toward the end of the lynch.

- I've dropped DharmaHelper from very slight civilian read to very slight mafia read because I have not seen enough baddie hunting and suspect elaboration from him.
--- I suppose I feel the same about espers. His vote from D1 still seems like a teammate bussing possibility, but it's hard to tell. He had a good plan with analyzing interactions with Sloonei, but hasn't delivered (which I understand, it is very time consuming, it's not like anyone else has really delivered on that front either). He missed the D2 vote and contributed practically nothing, so I don't know what to make of that. I wish he would post more of his thoughts. I have a hard time really suspecting him though, other than for his Day 1 vote, and for posting in the low/medium range.

--- I suppose I feel the same about G-Man. I am enjoying G-Man's activity, even though he made many posts against me today and they bothered me at first, but I wish he would increase baddie hunt, and I echo DDL's comment that his "catch up" seemed very mafia coolkid-like. I do understand G-Man's desire to comment on these matters, but I feel his commentary was lacking a bit with regards to suspects, other than his posts against me. Regarding his posts on me, I'm having trouble discerning whether they are coming from a place of general frustration and suspicion, or whether he is hoping to set up my lynch in an opportunistic fashion, which would be a bold move. Further interaction with G-Man will be necessary to determine this. Nonetheless, he's still "slight", especially since I recognize he takes a slow attempt to the game, and his careful consideration of Golden today warrants mention.
He starts Night 2 by posting a rainbow list and calling espers and G-Man his top reads. He also provides a nunch of other "very slight mafia reads", whose explanations I put inside spoilers. His espers read is justified by the fishy D1 vote, though he says he is having a hard time suspecting him otherwise. The G-Man read agrees with my comment about G-Man's fishy D2 catch-up and wishes he did more baddie hunting.

Later he makes ISOs on Eloh and Bass (now TinyBubbles) and conclude they look town from their interactions with Sloonei. Nothing new on suspicions, though.

The insane end of Day 3 comes, and everyone starts posting like crazy, including MP. He posts this:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'll go ahead and throw three out there: Cookie, DDL, and espers. Everyone that is here: Are you considering any of these candidates for your vote? Why or why not?
This post doesn't outright suspect anyone, but implies those are the ones he sees as bad. Later he would confirm the suspicions in other posts. Cookie, for the reasons everyone gave. Myself, for my bad voting score and the DH suspicion which he felt was forced. More on that later.

The G-Man suspicion seems to have disappeared, though MP is not the only player whose suspicions of G-Man grew thinner over time.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Part of me is frankly almost considering a vote for Cookie right now, since I keep seeing her lurk, and it's almost the end of Day 3, yet we haven't heard a single suspect from her. Her Day 2 vote for Golden really stinks.

I likely won't vote for her, but I really hope to hear from her.
Almost considering a vote for Cookie, but likely won't vote for her.

Where are llama and Epi when we need someone to talk about adverbs?
MovingPictures07 wrote:Here are all of the players that I'm currently considering for my vote, from least to most likely:

G-Man
Metalmarsh89


LoRab

Cookie
Dragon D. Luffy


espers
MovingPictures07 wrote:Honestly, I had timmer in the yellow range, but since he has been replaced, I will wait until we hear from juliets. And Cookie fell down from yellow, only because I'm tired of not hearing from her.
New rainbow list, where he confirms the previous reads, show a still slight suspicion on G-Man. Very consistent, I give him that.
MovingPictures07 wrote: Linki AGAIN w/ DDL: I will do the same. I'm very likely not going to vote for you today, since I didn't have time to conduct proper analysis, and my accusation that you want me to elaborate upon is solely my gut interpretation of your DH suspicion. I'll elaborate, but it may not be until after EoD. If so, I definitely won't vote for you, since you at least deserve an elaboration first.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Noted, thanks for elaborating.

I am no longer considering you for a vote today. I'll investigate you later. :smoky:
Later, me and him make a "pact" to not vote each other on day 3. I was hammering him for my D1 analysis which is where my suspicion on him started, he was hammering me for the DH thing. We both agreed we had bigger fish to fry and moved on. He reaffirms that after I succeed at explaining him the DH vote.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm switching gears. I will discuss DH and others more after EoD. We're quickly running out of time.

For now, I ONLY want to discuss these players:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Here are all of the players that I'm currently considering for my vote, from least to most likely:

G-Man
Metalmarsh89


LoRab

Cookie
Dragon D. Luffy


espers
Thoughts? Go. Anything.
He scratches a few players from his rainbow, limiting himself only to three. I don't remember where he last talked about LoRab, though.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm still most likely to vote espers, probably, but I'm hesitant, especially because I don't want to create a meaningless lynch with a bunch of votes on only espers. Where is espers, anyway?
30 minutes to vote. Most likely to vote espers. But where is espers? MP clearly wants to use those 30 minutes to have a full conversation with espers, but the guy won't cooperate.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Regarding espers, here's what I most recently had to say, for reference. As the Day has progressed, I've realized yet again that he's consistently failed to deliver. And despite otherwise meaningful and well-intended content, his D1 switch/vote strikes me as quite suspicious.

Regarding LoRab, her behavior during the Day 2 EoD really pinged me. I was willing to let it sit and see how she played out Day 3, but she reads increasingly to me as if, for the most part, she doesn't truly care who gets lynched.
MovingPictures07 wrote:All of that said, I'm not even sure I want this to become a LoRab/espers contest, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger on vague gut suspicions of DDL. I know Golden really wanted us to look at DDL, but time did not permit me the luxury today.

I also am throwing around a vote for Cookie, still, despite her recent increase in activity.

G-Man actually made me feel better about him today, so he's not on my D3 list. I do intend to analyze him heavily going into D4 though.
And here are the explanations on both the espers and LoRab suspicions, as well as the Cookie one, and finally why G-Man went up on the RL. Nice.

The last half hour is pretty intense, and MP's posts show. He is waiting till the very last minute to decide between one of the three. But the short time available, as well as the low activity of his suspects, don't help him. He doesn't give up.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:Well "doesn't truly care who gets lynched" sounds very Molochian to me. If you think LoRab fits the description, I'm thinking Eloh does as well.
Elo is bouncing all over the place, isn't she?

I'm having a lot of trouble understanding exactly what her rainbow list of players-with-highest-propensity-to-receive-my-vote today looks like.
Comments on Elo's bouncing.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Cookie wrote:Thanks for the link to that. I had to make a quick decision but I've vote for DH because of DDL.

At the same time, I'm trusting someone who I originally suspected so if they turn out to be wrong, it's just going to add to my suspicions.
I don't like this at all. I firmly believe Cookie is making up suspects.

The "safe" vote is espers, but I'm going to take a gamble here.

I'm voting Cookie.
One imunte left in the phase. Almost everyone has voted. Cookie makes her mega-suspicious vote on DH. MP, and votes her back. Hammer.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I think the remaining two mafia members very well may be some combination of:

Cookie and espers
Cookie and DDL
Cookie and Elohcin
DDL and Elohcin

Discuss.
Interesting posts, with some possible team analysis.

As Epi works on the reveal, MP spents the rest of the day phase arguing with Cookie and Elo.

Hammer. The coin flips, espers lives, DH dies and flips town.

To be continued next post, including thoughts.
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Dragon D. Luffy
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1449

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
Moloch is a serial killer? :suspish:
Last Man Standing = Serial Killer in my book, even if he doesn't outright kill people. He probably has some other way of getting rid of opposition, though.
What do you suggest? It is Night 4, and we've seen no kill from him.
Maybe his kill is only unlocked after the inmates are eliminated.

Maybe he has the power to manipulate votes.

Or maybe he's just dead.

Just some ideas.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1450

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

MP Night 3 / Day 4

Nothing relevant regarding MP's suspicions on N3. He spends it asking questions to other players and defending himself. He first relevant thing I found is on Day 4:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I also think what you say about LoRab here is indicative of her playstyle in general, so I too, have been hesitant to condemn her as absolutely mafia. That said, her votes have far from convinced me she is coming from a civilian mindset.
Comment on LoRab, where he is having doubts about labeling mafia, but agrees her votes have been fishy. Somewhat consistent with his previous RL.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Welcome, ika! Didn't expect that. See you in another game, espers.

I think it's wise that we do not let the prospect of replacement lessen the suspicion held against any of the players that are being replaced out. I still think espers had, rightfully so, suspicion surrounding him, and I think it's healthy if we maintain skepticism of him nonetheless.
Says his stance on espers will not change because of his replacement. Noted.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Scotty, I need to start conducting ISO's now. I've been meaning to for some time. I'll look at Russ first, since his posts earlier today had me wondering about him. I thought he said my conduct seemed "super civ" or something, so to see my name on his suspect list today puzzled me. I'll go look at him now.
MovingPictures07 wrote:After ISOing Russ, he's squarely on my mafia list. He's playing a very careful game. I hope he is able to fully engage us today and explain better where all of his reads are coming from.

I'll give you folks a mafia rainbow in just a few minutes here.
Sudden suspicion on Russ. I reckon I have a very limited opinion on Russ right now, and I need to work on that. Either way, what pings me about these posts by MP is that, even if it wasn't intentional, there is some OMGUS behind them. MP barely paid attention to Russ until Russ suspected him, and suddenly Russ is red on his RL. I recall the same thing happened to me in D3, with MP suspecting me after I suspected him, and then again at the end of D4, where he keeps saying that he "should have ISO'd DDL sooner".

This could be MP naturally reacting against people who unfairly suspect him, but could also be an attempt of OMGUS his antagonists in order to direct the heat back to them. I'm not sure.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Here are all of the players that I'm currently considering for my D4 vote, from least to most likely:

Elohcin
Dragon D. Luffy
G-Man
Metalmarsh89


Russtifinko

Cookie
LoRab


espers / ika

I'm going to actually read these players' posts in isolation and construct an ISO post on all of them right now.
Rainbow List. Nothing MP hasn't said before.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Working on Elo ISO now.

Regarding espers, I think the fact that espers chose to get a replacement, instead of attempting to complete what he started, pings me considerably. I know it's WIFOM, but I don't understand why a civilian would replace out amid such heavy suspicion, especially when other candidates became a possibility instead of him today (such as Cookie and LoRab). I think espers was hoping that it would buy him the necessary time to stay away from lynching.

Also, espers never really left my "scummiest" read, since he was at the bottom yesterday. I am trying to not tunnel "easy" reads that the thread seems to mostly suspect, because I don't want us to fall into autopilot mode, but I realize today that perhaps I'm trying to overcompensate too much in that regard and that I should continue to apply appropriate pressure if someone is truly acting scummy. espers kept promising baddie hunting, but never delivered, and his D1 vote still reeks of last minute bussing.
Yes. Espers has been isolated at the bottom of your RL for ages. Yet, he escaped both your d3 and your d4 votes. This post seems to promise espers/ika the justice they deserve, which unfortunately never comes.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Random thought:

Russ's D1 suspicion of Elo was rather intense, by D1 standards, and even by his suspicions ever since, as he hasn't committed to a strong read. He didn't end up voting for Elo on D1. Ever since the Sloonei flip and Elo's pivotal vote, he has been defending her hard.

Fast forward to recent Elo, the Elo who voted for me D3, despite consistently finding me a civilian read, because she couldn't articulate ANY suspects. Now she suddenly has a rainbow list, with Russtifinko at the bottom, and she has never expressed any read of him previously.

I could see Elo and Russtifinko being the remaining two mafia.

Discuss.
Russ + Elo team theory. Weird, since Elo didn't appear in the previous RL. MP's opinion on Elo seems to be flip-flopping as fast as Elo's opinion on everyone else is, though this is probably the point where he is making the ISO on her so it makes sense.
MobingPictures07 wrote:OVERALL: Elo seems like a slight to moderate mafia read to me. Her D3/N3 behavior still strikes me as WTF, even by her civilian standards. There are reasons I debate on her baddieness, however, since her Day 1 behavior and vote still seem more likely civilian and not a teammate of Sloonei. Some of her behavior also seems a bit too brazen for a member of the mafia, but who knows?

What do you all think?
Results of ISO on Eloh. He confirms his suspicions, though he has some reasons to doubt them. Not much everyone else hasn't said before, tbh.
MovingPictures07 wrote:My problem with Russ is increasingly becoming that he is playing a VERY careful game, throwing names out there, and then coming up with reasons he suspects them later, even if those reasons came about as of posts that were made much earlier. Yet he never voiced those thoughts earlier.
Results of a post where he argues against Russ's analysis of him. I did not agree with MP's arguments in this post, since he failed to acknlowledge the possibility of Russ simply reading his posts on d4. Though the arguments themselves don't make MP more suspicious.

There is more arguing with Russ which I'm not gonna bother quoting. But at this point it's clear MP views him as a big suspect.
MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm incredibly tempted to vote for Russ right now. He's playing the low-posting, insightful additional commentary, never shaking any trees, never committing too much, type of blendy mafia game. His inconsistencies regarding me and Elo and his lack of explanations for his reads that he's been arbitrarily throwing out are also notable.

I also believe we'll gain insight on espers / ika, as well as Elo, if Russ were to flip mafia or civilian, since Russ voiced suspicion of both of those players, only to back off completely.
"Tempted" to vote Russ. Also advocates for a possible informative lynch. So we can learn more about ika and Elo. Imo the best way of learning more about ika would be to lynch ika, but whatever.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Updated list of the players that I'm currently considering for my D4 vote, from least to most likely:

Dragon D. Luffy
G-Man
Metalmarsh89


Elohcin

Cookie
LoRab


espers / ika
Russtifinko


I realize I only got to ISO Elo and haven't had a chance to really look at the others, besides Russ somewhat. I need to catch up properly, read LoRab's posts, and subsequent posts, but I have to go for a little bit. I'll try to come back with an open mind and NOT tunnel Russ, but I really am becoming increasingly suspicious of his behavior this game.

This list will inevitably be updated once I can do more catching up and research.
New rainbow list. Russ is now Sock's Enemy #1. The rest are the usual ones.

Now I just noticed how Cookie has remained out of focus during this phase, though, never coming too close to the bottom of the list. To be fair, Cookie had not said anything either, but I wanna see how that turns into a vote on her.

<loads page 1. plz not too many post plz not too many posts... godanmit>
MovingPictures07 wrote:The longer Cookie goes without posting again, the more apt she is to drop down to the lowest part of my list (highest propensity to receive my vote).
Ominous.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:Can't say I'm shocked MP is suspecting me. Bring it on, chum!

Imma go ahead and vote espers/ika for tonight, though. I don't see anything convincing me otherwise, and someone's gotta get to the polls here.

Linki: Hmm. Well, MP, I guess to respond to the majority of your points, I haven't said most of the things I brought up because I haven't posted much at all about anything. As I said, that's changing today, so I'm saying what's on my mind.

As to being noncommittal, I feel like every time I've posted I've tried to be super clear about what I think of whom, since I haven't been posting much otherwise. Yeah, my mind has changed on some people, and yeah, since I haven't posted as much you haven't gotten to see the full progression of those changes. Saying I'm not committing too any reads is probably overplaying your hand tho.

Double Linki: Let me post! And stop it with the living rooms!
I understand, Russ. I just hope to see more thought process from you, because otherwise it's difficult to discern whether you are latching onto suspicions for convenience or whether you just haven't been fully articulating why you suspect whom you suspect. Does that make sense?
MP understands Russ's defense, and expects more toughts from him. I hope he is not intending to vote Russ this phase then, because there are 30 FUCKING MINUTES left in the phase.

Well now, logically, ika should be his next vote in line, unless Cookie has gone down fast enough in the RL, which depends on what the current rate of "Cookie going down / time without posts from Cookie" is.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Spoiler: show
Cookie wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Cookie wrote: Thanks for doing that about me and I don't take anything personally at all (what would this game be like if we were all srs bsns). I actually appreciate that you've analyzed everything I've said because it puts myself into my perspective. Do you have any questions or want me to clarify anything?

I feel that I could vote for MP, as well. I find him the most outspoken and, like I said earlier, it's strange that he hasn't been NK'd yelled. If he is not an Inmate, I believe that whoever is on the middle of his rainbow list must be the remaining Inmates (or at least one or two). Those people are slowly making their way to the top because it seems that people already at the top of his list are being NK'd. It's quite smart because all of the civviest people are being killed, leaving the most suspicious. I just feel that if I were an Inmate, I would feel threatened by MP's interrogations. I haven't seen anything he's said particularly disconcerting.

My top four suspicious players are (in alphabetical order): DDL, espers, LoRab, MP
Thanks for getting back to me Cookie, and I'm glad I didn't seem too overbearing.
You did indeed answer my main question to you pertaining to suspicions. Now the follow-up to that is: why? I think you said why DDL and MP, but why espers, and LoRab?

I color'd my opinion you have about MP. I consistently see you give suspicion to someone, then back up in the same breath. Just commit to a read, woman! :meany:

You also seem rather calm in your thanking both DDL and I for ripping into you. I'm quite taken aback and need to go get a :beer: because that is not the reaction I was expecting to rise from you.
Espers (now Ika) because of the last minute D1 vote. LoRab because of the post by DDL.

To explain the coloured part about MP: I can vote for him simply because he's not been NK'd yet. Not because of something he's said. In fact, he is the civviest civvy I c. Apart from him still being alive. I won't vote for MP at this point, but I will keep him on my radar because there are other people with more incriminating evidence. I'm going to review the posts about LoRab and Elo and see which one I find most suspicious (I think it's Elo that juliet posted about). Then I will weigh the option of voting between those two or Espers (Ika).

Have a drink for me! Good idea! I'll get some win *Cheers*
What people with what evidence?
Yay, Cookie replied. That should help MP make his decision. Right?
MovingPictures07 wrote:Updated list of the players that I'm currently considering for my D4 vote, from least to most likely:

Elohcin

LoRab

Cookie
espers / ika
Russtifinko
Oh, never mind. Russ still dead at the bottom. Note that ika is still the second suspect.

Like I once said in the Guess Who Chatzy, I wish I could be everyone's second suspect. Every Game. Forever.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Re: your suspicions, in that order? aka LoRab most likely?

Do you think ika's alignment is important enough that he should be lynched soon/today?

Re: Scotty, I understand. However, I think you missed the point of my question. Is it possible you suspect my behavior during EoD D1 because you don't agree with my thoughts on Scotty? If it were someone else you did agree with, do you think you would you view it differently?
No specific order.

I'm not voting ika today. Call me frivolous, but I want to have some sportsmanship. I wanna give the guy one day, and one vote, to judge him. Day 5 I'll judge him normally, though.
Order them, now. (Applying the pressure).
This post pissed me off.

No, I wasn't being fair with him. MP had all the right to keep up with his playstyle. Let's be honest guys, we all love the rainbow lists and the way the dude plays. Civ MP is awesome.

But I don't know if this is civ MP. And I needed to break that armor. So I decided to figure out what happens when you try to stop the sock from... being the sock.

The result was a lot more... intense that I had expected.

All I got to say is that I don't regret my decision. Knocking MP out of his confort zone may have helped me and others to make a read of him.

I'm not gonna quote everything cuz it's not the scope of this post. Suffice to say everything MP does after he reads my posts is to argue with me, and the people who were agreeing with me, which is perfectly justifiable.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Out of those three? GTH Cookie.
I ask him a gun to head. I limit it to ika, Cookie or LoRab, because those are the three who can be lynched and I don't wanna give MP the chance of escaping from the poll. So he can't be blamed for not voting Russ. He can, however, be blamed for not voting ika, his #2.

He doesn't do it immediately, though. He still stalls for a while, until he claims that he is pissed and finally votes Cookie.

Hammer. The day is over and so is this ISO.

Now let's get to the conclusions. A couple things I noticed while I was writing it:

First, Day 3/4 MP is a little better than Day 1 MP, in terms of flip-flopping. Day 1 MP was a mess. There was the light suspicion of Sloonei at the start, and generally parroting other people's opinions along the day until jumping the boat near the end to vote Scotty.

Day 3/4 MP is a parade of carefully explained rainbow lists. The guy still justifies everything he does. If he is mafia, he is the most consistent mafioso I've ever seen.

But there are cracks. Espers/Ika has been his main suspect all the time, and never got a vote. The Day 4 vote on Cookie remains unexplained (what I mean is, we knew why he suspected Cookie, but why did he vote him and not ika at the end?). Granted, MP was visibly distressed at the time, and that alone justifies a possible fail of judgement. But I'm tired of seeing pefectly justifiable coincidences that prevent MP from voting mafiosos.

I don't know what to think. The vote analysis screams "SCUM" every time I do it, but MP never fails to explain anything. This is a very hard player to decipher.

I have to keep him on my suspect list. My vote on him tomorrow will depend on what happens in the day.
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