Watchmen [ENDGAME]

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Who deserves justice?

Poll ended at Mon Aug 03, 2015 7:42 pm

Dragon D. Luffy
3
30%
Made
0
No votes
Ricochet
0
No votes
Russtifinko
1
10%
Cancer (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
6
60%
 
Total votes: 10
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1501

Post by Scotty »

Thank you for posting that, oh prairie dog or short gopher cat or what-have-you!
Russtifinko wrote:Oh hey, good post there MM! I missed that on linki.

Well I'm probably not voting MM today. No reason for a non-civ to help us out there.
Buddying much? That last sentence reeks of sincerity for the sake of sounding sincere. Yes, MM was helpful for a post, but No reason for a non-civ to help us? Hardly.

Quick Q that I haven't seen reasoning for yet:
Day 4:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
ika wrote:so im not going to read anything and going to go from here.

anything i should know offhand?
Just vote for LoRab, she is bad.
Day 5 immediately after voting LoRab:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:MovingPictures is Mr Coolpants so let's lynch us a dragon. Tis the season. :fishing:

Linki: Rezz please for our friend, the Helper of Dharma.
Then you vote DDL. wtf? It hasn't been an hour since juliets died and now you've absolved LoRab and immediately vote DDL. Care to explain your reasoning?
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1502

Post by Tangrowth »

I'm actually casting my vote for Elo right now.

If I'm wrong, I swear you guys can lynch me if you wish. I really don't think I am. I really think Elo outed herself with this final move against me.

If you read her posts, thinking critically about why a mafia or civilian would act that way, her actions make WAY more sense as mafia. Don't view her as Elo. View her as a player. Eliminate meta and she's the obvious missing mafia.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1503

Post by Tangrowth »

Russ, if you can go through the ISO and explain to me how her behavior is civilian, rather than Elo-like, then feel free to cast your vote elsewhere.

She's absolutely bad. She tried fooling us all, but she picked the wrong person to move against in the final hours here. I'd absolutely stake my reputation that she's the last mafia member.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1504

Post by Tangrowth »

She also never played an "important role". BOTH of her teammate votes were only riding the tide of the thread. She couldn't even articulate what she found suspicious of Sloonei, ever, or why she backed off. It's because she was panicking!
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1505

Post by Scotty »

Spoiler: show
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:My thoughts on you yesterday, Russ, were purposeful.
What does this mean? You were feeling me out and didn't actually suspect me? Or you had some ulterior motive?

Bingo. I also wanted to see if anyone would jump onto it.
MovingPictures07 wrote:What is it that makes you think this is civilian Elo, Russ?

I've mislynched civilian Elo too many times to count, but this is not civilian Elo.
But WHY, though? Your iso shows her doing Elo-type stuff, at what to me seems a normal Elo level. And then suspecting you. Even if I take the standpoint of 100% assuming you're civ, it's a hard case to swallow, man.

Your problem is that you're taking meta into account too much. Just look at her actions themselves and try not to consider meta. If you do that, she looks absolutely mafia.

Yes, she's done some weird stuff, but she played an important role in at least one baddie lynch, and she always does weird stuff. I see nothing out of character, and I don't see baddie Elo throwing teammates under the bus on a team of 3 in a 19-person game.

WIFOM. Also, she clearly voted for Sloonei only when she had to, only after vaguely suspecting him, then dropping him, AMID the tide of the thread. She did the same thing with espers, casting a totally worthless vote on D3 and then voting for him on Day 4 when she knew he was toast.
MovingPictures07 wrote:That said, Russ, I will try my best to discuss other suspects.

I do agree I'd like to hear from G-Man. What are your thoughts on him, Russ?
I think I should be able to read him better after hosting him in Econ, and I think he's being as unhelpful as MM. I don't know yet if it makes him bad, but I want to see more because I'd like to make up my mind.

On another note, I think the theory that a baddie teammate would have not voted espers on D3 and then thrown in the towel on D4 and done it makes a lot of sense. Not that it absolutely happened, mind you. Just that it's something I'll be factoring in to my vote considerations today.
Please read the ISO again, or at least skim it, and try to consider meta as little as possible.

It's why I'm suddenly really confident that she's mafia. She's opportunistically jumping around from suspect to suspect; most of the time she cannot articulate whom she suspects; the most damning things against her are the sloppy Sloonei distancing and the terrible completely anti-town behavior at EoD D3.

Literally almost every major suspect she's had, she's tried riding the tide of the thread. Sloonei, G-Man, espers, LoRab, me.

Dude, seriously. I'm totally positive here. I've been considering her meta all game. She's fooling us all hard.
MP, I think there's a lot of good instincts here.
MovingPictures07 wrote:Metalmarsh, I'm pretty sure we're seeing civilian DDL. If not, Moloch at worst.

I'd bet my mafia reputation that it's Elo.
I think MP staking his mafia reputation on Elo speaks volumes.

In essence, I agree with you on your read. Opportunism is a fickle beast that should be put down like the scavenging beast that it is.

linki- well I was just crafting a question about why you hadn't just posted, but it looks like you've made up your mind. Good for you, I'm proud of you, MP :clap:

Now MM, what about you?
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1506

Post by Tangrowth »

I'm not dicking around with my votes anymore. I'm willing to take full responsibility for this lynch.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1507

Post by Marmot »

Scotty wrote:Thank you for posting that, oh prairie dog or short gopher cat or what-have-you!
Russtifinko wrote:Oh hey, good post there MM! I missed that on linki.

Well I'm probably not voting MM today. No reason for a non-civ to help us out there.
Buddying much? That last sentence reeks of sincerity for the sake of sounding sincere. Yes, MM was helpful for a post, but No reason for a non-civ to help us? Hardly.

Quick Q that I haven't seen reasoning for yet:
Day 4:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
ika wrote:so im not going to read anything and going to go from here.

anything i should know offhand?
Just vote for LoRab, she is bad.
Day 5 immediately after voting LoRab:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:MovingPictures is Mr Coolpants so let's lynch us a dragon. Tis the season. :fishing:

Linki: Rezz please for our friend, the Helper of Dharma.
Then you vote DDL. wtf? It hasn't been an hour since juliets died and now you've absolved LoRab and immediately vote DDL. Care to explain your reasoning?
I'm hunting Molochs this season. Would you care to join?
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1508

Post by Marmot »

And for all of you silly folks who questioned it.
Epignosis wrote:Civilians (9)
Win Con: The Inmates and Moloch the Mystic are Dead. Be alive.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1509

Post by Tangrowth »

MM, I think it's prudent that we catch the last mafia member today. If we catch Moloch, great, since it does appear we need him gone, but I think I have something really solid on Elo here and I'm willing to take a firm stand with it. She's been opportunistic all game, she couldn't even bluff her way out of EoD D3. She fucking voted for me in an unpredictable lynch even though she admitted she was reading me civilian and thought G-Man was her top suspect. Could that get any more scummy? She's relying on people to meta read her a certain way, just like Vompatti did in Biblical. Vompatti lasted way too long. Elo has lasted way too long.

I'm laying it all on the line. If Elo isn't bad, I'll eat a hat.

On that note, see you folks tomorrow. :offtobed:
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1510

Post by Marmot »

MovingPictures07 wrote:I'm not dicking around with my votes anymore. I'm willing to take full responsibility for this lynch.
'Atta boy MP. Vote early and often. Early bird gets the worm, ain't that right?

Linki: Have a good rest.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1511

Post by Scotty »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Scotty wrote:Thank you for posting that, oh prairie dog or short gopher cat or what-have-you!
Russtifinko wrote:Oh hey, good post there MM! I missed that on linki.

Well I'm probably not voting MM today. No reason for a non-civ to help us out there.
Buddying much? That last sentence reeks of sincerity for the sake of sounding sincere. Yes, MM was helpful for a post, but No reason for a non-civ to help us? Hardly.

Quick Q that I haven't seen reasoning for yet:
Day 4:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
ika wrote:so im not going to read anything and going to go from here.

anything i should know offhand?
Just vote for LoRab, she is bad.
Day 5 immediately after voting LoRab:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:MovingPictures is Mr Coolpants so let's lynch us a dragon. Tis the season. :fishing:

Linki: Rezz please for our friend, the Helper of Dharma.
Then you vote DDL. wtf? It hasn't been an hour since juliets died and now you've absolved LoRab and immediately vote DDL. Care to explain your reasoning?
I'm hunting Molochs this season. Would you care to join?
I still don't have a damned clue what Moloch does, is or how he functions. DDL suggested serial killer, but that doesn't appear very likely, unless he's got a thumb up his bum for some reason.

So I think mafia should be first and foremost on our kill list, which begs the question that you naturally have eluded: why DDL? Like, what makes you think he is Moloch? Do you still think LoRab is your 1st choice for mafia?

I don't currently suspect you of being mafia, but your play continues to baffle the hell out of me. It's like I'm in the backyard in the summer of '95 and dad just brought out his antique set of lawn darts to play with- so I throw a dart up into the sun and hope for the best, but it's a blindingly bright day and the next thing I know, I'm waking up in ICU with a glass eye of regret.
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1512

Post by Marmot »

It's interesting that he would suggest that Moloch is a serial killer when there is no such indication in this game.

In fact, he didn't just suggest an idea, he specifically called him a serial killer.

What say you?
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1513

Post by Scotty »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:It's interesting that he would suggest that Moloch is a serial killer when there is no such indication in this game.

In fact, he didn't just suggest an idea, he specifically called him a serial killer.

What say you?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Eloh looks particulary unlikely to be Big Figure, though, since she sacrificed both of her teamates. Could still be Moloch. Serial Killer Eloh all over again?
Moloch is a serial killer? :suspish:
Last Man Standing = Serial Killer in my book, even if he doesn't outright kill people. He probably has some other way of getting rid of opposition, though.
I think it's a pretty good theory actually. He seems more like a cereal killer right now, seeing as Moloch hasn't done diddly squat.
But at least DDL's putting that theory out there. I think that's hardly a definite reason to suspect him as Moloch and then immediately cast a vote.

You still haven't answered my other question. I feel like I should just give up in expecting you to fully answer my questions.


Bedtime thoughts: I am looking forward to hearing what Elo has to say in defense to MP putting his life force behind this vote.

Also, I am eyeing Elo as my vote today as well, so I got the popcorn, you got the sock puppets. Let's put on a show telling me why we shouldn't lynch you today. :knight3:
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1514

Post by Marmot »

Glad we're on the same page, almost... :coffee3:

Perhaps DDL is right, and Moloch remains dormant until mafia is dead.

If that's the case, there's a good chance the Moloch is doing a lot of scumhunting.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1515

Post by Scotty »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Glad we're on the same page, almost... :coffee3:

Perhaps DDL is right, and Moloch remains dormant until mafia is dead.

If that's the case, there's a good chance the Moloch is doing a lot of scumhunting.
So like someone that's posted an expansive list of reads on different people, maybe casting shade at multiple people at once, maybe using colorful lists to showcase those different people in varying degrees of scuminess?

lol.
But if your theory is correct, it's definitely not you.

He could also just be dead. NK'd. That would be hilarious. And until I have reason to believe otherwise that he is around, why not just go scum hunting with the rest of us, MM?
When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1516

Post by Marmot »

Scotty wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Glad we're on the same page, almost... :coffee3:

Perhaps DDL is right, and Moloch remains dormant until mafia is dead.

If that's the case, there's a good chance the Moloch is doing a lot of scumhunting.
So like someone that's posted an expansive list of reads on different people, maybe casting shade at multiple people at once, maybe using colorful lists to showcase those different people in varying degrees of scuminess?

lol.
But if your theory is correct, it's definitely not you.

He could also just be dead. NK'd. That would be hilarious. And until I have reason to believe otherwise that he is around, why not just go scum hunting with the rest of us, MM?
Because I'm having fun watching the rest of all y'all do it. :haha:
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1517

Post by Scotty »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Glad we're on the same page, almost... :coffee3:

Perhaps DDL is right, and Moloch remains dormant until mafia is dead.

If that's the case, there's a good chance the Moloch is doing a lot of scumhunting.
So like someone that's posted an expansive list of reads on different people, maybe casting shade at multiple people at once, maybe using colorful lists to showcase those different people in varying degrees of scuminess?

lol.
But if your theory is correct, it's definitely not you.

He could also just be dead. NK'd. That would be hilarious. And until I have reason to believe otherwise that he is around, why not just go scum hunting with the rest of us, MM?
Because I'm having fun watching the rest of all y'all do it. :haha:
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When I die, I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather;
not screaming like the people in his car
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1518

Post by Scotty »

I'm having trouble sleeping.

Also food for thought:
MP re-proposed his case for Elo right after juliets was lynched, and asks people what they think.
And hour later, Elo posts in Frisky Dingo sign-ups with her interest to play.

I think she's cooked and she knows it.
Voting elo.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1519

Post by Ricochet »

RIP Juliets, sorry to see you go. :(

I started doing re-reads last night (I mean, what else?), based on stats and posts (voting pattern and interaction with confirmed mafia members) until I almost fell asleep with the laptop on my uhm, lap. Now I need to figure if I should do that all the way through or focus on Elo and several others, seeing already how we're going a bit more fast-forward on this Day. Busy with something until early afternoon, but I'll be back afterwards.

Here's a taste of I what plan(ned?) to do:

Bass
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Vote D1: 1st vote for Scotty (scoreline Ninja 2 - Scot/G-Man/Sloonei 1),
consistent with Scotty being a suspect for him (alongside G-Man and Sloonei),
but also being spooked by Scotty's odd vote
Vote D2: 2nd vote for MM (Golden at 4), baseless, "I've got no one better from the poll" reasoning format
Vote D3: no vote
Vote D4[TB]: no activity and no vote

Interaction with Mafia confirmed members:

Sloonei: questions Sloonei's methods of debates, has a gut feeling about him being bad
espers: nothing
The Good:
-- his primary, great read and pressuring of Sloonei, influencing the way the actual hunt on Sloonei unfolded; makes me strongly doubt Bass would have created the premises for a teammate falling
-- not wagoning blindly on Golden

The Not-So-Good:
Switch vote for Scotty (despite fully reasoned), given Sloonei lynch was getting hot
Dipping form into absenteeism, including shit vote on MM, no more consistent gameplay
No interaction with espers
[TinyBubbles: yet to get into the game]

The Question mark: Very high up LC's baddie list. LC is since dead.

Read: Intrigued. I was willing to finish my read of Bass as civ-ish up to the point when he got replaced, his gut read on Sloonei weighing the most - again, bussing before any strong reason to buss sounds unnatural of a mafia team tactic (except if you have Epig as a teammate, I s'pose :p); civ Bass usually has "sehr gut" gut reads. But in light of espers' flip, he doesn't have a clean slate. Granted, I would find it completely lolsworthy if both remaining Mafia players slacked off so much and asked to be replaced - I've never seen that before. Nevertheless, TinyBubbles really has to prove to us she's to be trusted and participate from now on. I don't think I would stamp my D5 vote on Bass/TB at this moment, but since he's/she's not clean, he's/she's to be kept in mind, if a couple of mislynches will occur with the hotter suspects.

Cookie
Spoiler: show
Day 1: no vote (would have voted Elo)
Day 2: 3rd vote for Golden (for his bad D1 vote; worst looking in context of four-player poll), pushing him to 3-1 vs MM
Day 3: 2nd vote for DH (remember she considered him suspicious, based from
DDL's case context), pushing him to 2-1 vs espers
Day 4: 2nd vote for ika (because of espers' D1 vote, but also says she'll explain
her vote better at a later time)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia

Sloonei: one direct but fluff interaction (appreciating Sloonei's kind profile on her), suspicious of Elo flip-flopping on Sloonei gut read, concludes D1 saying she never found Sloonei suspicious, her post-Sloonei lynch lead was Golden (a civ)
espers: nothing until D2, except a nod to llama's read on him after D1.

Suspects him starting D3
The Good:
-- *please insert Good*
-- on a purely statistical level, her vote for espers, I s'pose

The Bad:
-- she picked Llama's train of thought about Golden and espers looking bad after D1 voting, but only focused on Golden afterwards; nothing on espers, instead, during D2 (granted, the four-player poll might have also influenced this)
-- switching to DH vote instead of espers on D3

Question mark: her post with Sloonei. Either outrageously unwise open buddying with mafia teammate or genuine fluff/or Sloonei trying to paint her bad, for future reads.

Read: Sucky game. Either a very unfortunate player who received a civ role, but is dropping the pancakes on the floor at every attempt to flip them, or a mafia who played the slowpoke card with us this whole time. I'm not sure what's stopping me from believing she is the last Mafia, but it almost has to do with how surreal of a weak-ass trio she would make with Sloonei and espers this game, involving the whole range of sins: buddying in the open with Sloonei, having zero reads on him yet picking other players who do, omitting espers suspicions for a while, then distancing from him. Her D4 vote looks mildly satisfying and her two-day suss of espers mildly consistent, but it could well have been "practiced" within the team, since espers was definitely under heat already.

----

As you can see, this kind of list-making doesn't help narrow things down much, given that we have one more Mafia to catch, plus Moloch.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1520

Post by Cookie »

Hey everyone,
I have my biweekly social life tonight so I won't be around to discuss or possibly vote.

I'm not sure who to vote for since the points against MP and Elo seem valid and I feel like I am following other peoples' suspicions and what I have discovered this game is that following people is not a good thing and makes you appear suspicious. I also don't have anything to support my hunch against DDL so I don't think he will be getting my vote today, if ever (if I am online to make it). Anyway, I will likely be back around 3 and make a vote then if I can.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1521

Post by G-Man »

MovingPictures07 wrote:You want to know why Russ isn't on my rainbow list anymore? He cast the FIRST vote for espers / ika during Day 4.
Yeah but espers came into Day 4 looking like a prime target, no? Great distancing opportunity. At this stage baddies get cut-throat with their own.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Guys, Elo is the last mafia. I'm sure of it. She's taking advantage of the momentum there is to vote for me, based on what DDL has been pushing, in order to lead a lynch on me. Her vote on D1 for Sloonei was clearly after seeing how Epi's vote succeeded for him in Guess Who?, and her sloppy distancing from Sloonei was real.

In fact, if you lynch Elo today and she comes back civilian, I implore all of you to lynch me immediately thereafter.
I really, REALLY wish people would stop making this kind of stupid comment. It pisses me off every time.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Guys, please read my ISO on Elohcin that I posted a cycle ago, if you haven't.

Pay close attention to her interaction with Sloonei. Now we know espers was a teammate, it's shown that espers voted for his teammate on D1. If Elo is mafia, she did as well. That Elo/Sloonei distancing seems BAD and sloppy, and consequently many of us were writing it off, but I think it should be revisited.

Her EoD D3 behavior made it clear to me that she's fabricating her reads, since she couldn't even cast a vote for anyone, nor could she name a top suspect.

For most of the game, she has considered me to be a strong civilian read, yet she voted for me on D3 nonetheless.

Now she conveniently has a revelation that I'm the last mafia, since DDL has been aggressively pursuing me as a suspect (at least his reasons are logical).

etc.

I want opinions. I'll stop spamming the thread now, sorry. G-Man will agree that I was due for a dogpeeing at some point.
But what you're doing to Elo doesn't taste like dog-pee. Long story short, her voting record strongly suggests she is not an Inmate. I've looked at her votes from all angles and I simply cannot see her as the final Inmate. You on the other hand, have a record that all but screams Inmate. I'll elaborate later. Hopefully that means before my lunch break.


MovingPictures07 wrote:Metalmarsh, I'm pretty sure we're seeing civilian DDL. If not, Moloch at worst.

I'd bet my mafia reputation that it's Elo.
I will take that bet, sir.

You say Elo is the final Inmate. I say she's not. I realize that my mafia reputation is old, dusty, and out of practice but I believe in my votes analyses. Your mafia reputation versus mine- let's do this! :srsnod:
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1522

Post by G-Man »

TERMS:

Should you accept my offer to take you up on your bet, the loser must acknowledge their error in their signature for a full year.

If you are correct that Elo is the final Inmate, I will post this in my signature:
I, G-Man, bet my mafia reputation against MovingPictures07's mafia reputation in Watchmen Mafia and I was wrong.
If I am correct that Elo is not the final Inmate, you will post this in your signature:
I, MovingPictures07, bet my mafia reputation against G-Man's mafia reputation in Watchmen Mafia and I was wrong.
And if you chicken out on this bet, I shall post this in my signature:
In Watchmen Mafia, MovingPictures07 stated he would bet his mafia reputation that a player was bad. I offered to take him up on that bet and he chickened out.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1523

Post by Russtifinko »

MP, yeah, without meta Elo's posts look bad. But as G-Man just pointed out, her votes look good. And more importantly, you HAVE to consider meta with Elo because she ALWAYS looks bad to some degree. (Kicks dead horse one last time for good measure.) your last post pretty much sums it up. No quote cuz I'm on phone, but you said "she fucking voted me" and in the next sentence "could it get any scummier?". You are tunneling HARD on this because you felt attacked, and you oughta check yourself.

I'm also not sure if I buy that you fake-suspected me, but we'll leave that for now.

And Scotty, you can question my motivation on what I said about MM, but the point remains: there is no benefit whatsoever to a lone baddie or indie to give the civs info we need and don't have. Completely altruistic gesture on his part.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1524

Post by Russtifinko »

Love to hear some thoughts from both TinyBubbles and LoRab today. I need to develop some reads, and Elo is not high on my list for votes. Also curious who Rico is thinking about for today.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1525

Post by G-Man »

Image

Anyone else find it curious that every player was able to talk yesterday?

There are two roles capable of silencing other players, one of which is Big Figure, who we know is still alive.

Thoughts?
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1526

Post by Bubbles »

Russtifinko wrote:Love to hear some thoughts from both TinyBubbles and LoRab today. I need to develop some reads, and Elo is not high on my list for votes. Also curious who Rico is thinking about for today.
im still reading through this gigantic thread! will try to post my thoughts soon, sorry for taking so long.
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Re: Watchmen [Night 4]

#1527

Post by G-Man »

I am Balaam, see me technicolor! (updated from Night Post)

Day 1
Spoiler: show
DAY 1 RESULTS:

1. TIMMER/JULIETS (Timmer/juliets)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE
3. NIJU (MM89)
4. G-MAN (LoRab)
5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player NK'd by Comedian
7. SCOTTY (Bass/Tiny Bubbles)
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)
10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN
11. SCOTTY (MP07)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)
16. SLOONEI (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE

NOT VOTING: Cookie, G-Man, Long Con


ALTERNATE FORMAT:

5. SLOONEI (Niju)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
8. SLOONEI (Llama)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
9. SLOONEI (Dragon)
13. SLOONEI (Elohcin)
16. SLOONEI (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE


2. NIJU (Sloonei)<---Player = INMATE
3. NIJU (MM89)
12. NIJU (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN


4. G-MAN (LoRab)
14. G-MAN (Russtifinko)


6. ELOHCIN (Scotty)<---Player NK'd by Comedian
15. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)


7. SCOTTY (Bass/TinyBubbles)
11. SCOTTY (MP07)


1. TIMMER/JULIETS (Timmer/juliets)<---Player NK'd by Inmates


10. LORAB (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN


NOT VOTING:
Cookie
G-Man
Long Con<---Player NK'd by Inmates
Day 2
Spoiler: show
DAY 2 RESULTS:

1. METALMARSH89 (MM89)
2. GOLDEN (Timmer/juliets)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
3. GOLDEN (Long Con)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
4. GOLDEN (Cookie)
5. GOLDEN (Dragon)
6. RUSSTIFINKO (G-Man)
7. LONG CON (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN
8. METALMARSH89 (Bass/Tiny Bubbles)
9. METALMARSH89 (Niju)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
10. METALMARSH89 (Elohcin)
11. GOLDEN (LoRab)
12. METALMARSH89 (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN

NOT VOTING: espers/ika, MP07, Ricochet, Russtifinko



ALTERNATE FORMAT:

2. GOLDEN (Timmer/juliets)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
3. GOLDEN (Long Con)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
4. GOLDEN (Cookie)
5. GOLDEN (Dragon)
11. GOLDEN (LoRab)


1. METALMARSH89 (MM89)
8. METALMARSH89 (Bass/Tiny Bubbles)
9. METALMARSH89 (Niju)<---Player = NK'd by Inmates
10. METALMARSH89 (Elohcin)
12. METALMARSH89 (Golden)<---Player = CIVILIAN


6. RUSSTIFINKO (G-Man)


7. LONG CON (DH)<---Player = WATCHMAN


NOT VOTING:
espers/ika<---Player = INMATE
MP07
Ricochet
Russtifinko
Day 3
Spoiler: show
DAY 3 RESULTS:

1. ESPERS/IKA (DharmaHelper)<---Player = WATCHMAN
2. DHARMAHELPER (Dragon)
3. G-MAN (LoRab)
4. DHARMAHELPER (Cookie)
5. ESPERS/IKA (G-Man)
6. MOVINGPICTURES07 (Elohcin)
7. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)
8. COOKIE (MP07)

NOT VOTING: Bass/Tiny Bubbles, espers/ika (2), juliets, Long Con (2), MM89, Russtifinko (2)



ALTERNATE FORMAT:

2. DHARMAHELPER (Dragon)
4. DHARMAHELPER (Cookie)


1. ESPERS/IKA (DharmaHelper)<---Player = WATCHMAN
5. ESPERS/IKA (G-Man)


3. G-MAN (LoRab)


6. MOVINGPICTURES07 (Elohcin)


7. ELOHCIN (Ricochet)


8. COOKIE (MP07)


NOT VOTING:
Bass/Tiny Bubbles
espers/ika (2)<---Player = INMATE
juliets<---Player NK'd by Inmates
Long Con (2)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
MM89
Russtifinko (2)
Day 4
Spoiler: show
DAY 4 RESULTS:

1. LORAB (MM89)
2. ESPERS/IKA (Russtifinko)
3. COOKIE (Scotty)
4. ESPERS/IKA (Cookie)
5. COOKIE (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE
6. LORAB (Dragon)
7. ESPERS/IKA (juliets)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
8. ESPERS/IKA (Elohcin)
9. COOKIE (MP07)
10. LORAB (Ricochet)
11. ESPERS/IKA (LoRab)
12. METALMARSH89 (G-Man)

NOT VOTING: Bass/Tiny Bubbles (2*)


ALTERNATE FORMAT:

2. ESPERS/IKA (Russtifinko)
4. ESPERS/IKA (Cookie)
7. ESPERS/IKA (juliets)<---Player NK'd by Inmates
8. ESPERS/IKA (Elohcin)
11. ESPERS/IKA (LoRab)


1. LORAB (MM89)
6. LORAB (Dragon)
10. LORAB (Ricochet)


3. COOKIE (Scotty)
5. COOKIE (espers/ika)<---Player = INMATE
9. COOKIE (MP07)


12. METALMARSH89 (G-Man)


NOT VOTING:
Bass/Tiny Bubbles (2*)
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1528

Post by Marmot »

G-Man wrote:Image

Anyone else find it curious that every player was able to talk yesterday?

There are two roles capable of silencing other players, one of which is Big Figure, who we know is still alive.

Thoughts?
Well Big Figure clearly wasn't roleblocked, or juliets would be alive.

Maybe Bass/TinyBubbles was silenced, but TinyBubbles wasn't warned until after she posted? She did only post once, didn't vote in the Day 4 poll, and only just posted again for the first time in two days.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1529

Post by Marmot »

G-Man, you voted for me yesterday? You're so mean. :fist:

You are not going about this the right way at all.
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?

The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1530

Post by Ricochet »

G-Man wrote:Image

Anyone else find it curious that every player was able to talk yesterday?

There are two roles capable of silencing other players, one of which is Big Figure, who we know is still alive.

Thoughts?
If a silenced player is replaced, does his replacement also have to stay silent?

Russ, I'm scanning the reads as I've said and it's going as slow as it always has, the past days.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1531

Post by G-Man »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
G-Man wrote:Image

Anyone else find it curious that every player was able to talk yesterday?

There are two roles capable of silencing other players, one of which is Big Figure, who we know is still alive.

Thoughts?
Well Big Figure clearly wasn't roleblocked, or juliets would be alive.

Maybe Bass/TinyBubbles was silenced, but TinyBubbles wasn't warned until after she posted? She did only post once, didn't vote in the Day 4 poll, and only just posted again for the first time in two days.
I was thinking along those lines, considering the missed vote. Do we know who all claimed to be silenced which days so far?



Metalmarsh89 wrote:G-Man, you voted for me yesterday? You're so mean. :fist:

You are not going about this the right way at all.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1532

Post by Ricochet »

I think MP never confirmed being silenced on D2, but most of us assumed that, LC confirmed he was silenced and MM hinted at that (both of them D3 :o).
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1533

Post by G-Man »

Elo is the only one who hasn't posted since the Night Post. I wonder if Big Figure is allowed to kill and silence someone on the same night or if he just kills every night now that both his teammates are dead.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1534

Post by Tangrowth »

G-Man wrote: You say Elo is the final Inmate. I say she's not. I realize that my mafia reputation is old, dusty, and out of practice but I believe in my votes analyses. Your mafia reputation versus mine- let's do this! :srsnod:
You're on.

Now vote for her and prove me right.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1535

Post by Tangrowth »

G-Man wrote:TERMS:

Should you accept my offer to take you up on your bet, the loser must acknowledge their error in their signature for a full year.

If you are correct that Elo is the final Inmate, I will post this in my signature:
I, G-Man, bet my mafia reputation against MovingPictures07's mafia reputation in Watchmen Mafia and I was wrong.
If I am correct that Elo is not the final Inmate, you will post this in your signature:
I, MovingPictures07, bet my mafia reputation against G-Man's mafia reputation in Watchmen Mafia and I was wrong.
And if you chicken out on this bet, I shall post this in my signature:
In Watchmen Mafia, MovingPictures07 stated he would bet his mafia reputation that a player was bad. I offered to take him up on that bet and he chickened out.
Done.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1536

Post by Tangrowth »

Russtifinko wrote:MP, yeah, without meta Elo's posts look bad. But as G-Man just pointed out, her votes look good. And more importantly, you HAVE to consider meta with Elo because she ALWAYS looks bad to some degree. (Kicks dead horse one last time for good measure.) your last post pretty much sums it up. No quote cuz I'm on phone, but you said "she fucking voted me" and in the next sentence "could it get any scummier?". You are tunneling HARD on this because you felt attacked, and you oughta check yourself.

I'm also not sure if I buy that you fake-suspected me, but we'll leave that for now.

And Scotty, you can question my motivation on what I said about MM, but the point remains: there is no benefit whatsoever to a lone baddie or indie to give the civs info we need and don't have. Completely altruistic gesture on his part.
Voting records are a tricky thing.

I already proved that both of her votes look terrible when combined with her content. She clearly was trying to decide whether to bus Sloonei. She CAST OFF onto someone she thought was "really civ" the D3 lynch when she easily could have bussed espers. She only bussed espers on D4 when it was inevitable he was dying.

Russ, I swear to god I've checked myself. Elo's behavior is classic baddie.

What kind of civilian can't even articulate her reads during EoD D3? It's because she is MAKING UP SUSPECTS.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1537

Post by Tangrowth »

Votes analyses can only get you so far.

Epignosis bussed DDL by being the first to vote for him on D1 in Guess Who?. It guaranteed him a victory. Elo hosted that game. She clearly is trying to change up her baddie style here, and she did so sloppily.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1538

Post by G-Man »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
G-Man wrote: You say Elo is the final Inmate. I say she's not. I realize that my mafia reputation is old, dusty, and out of practice but I believe in my votes analyses. Your mafia reputation versus mine- let's do this! :srsnod:
You're on.

Now vote for her and prove me right.
I still have her pegged as a possibility for Moloch but I'm hunting for Big Figure today. I'm not interested in voting for someone who I don't suspect of being Big Figure.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1539

Post by Tangrowth »

Russ, regardless of whether you think I'm tunneling, think about how Elo has played this game.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1540

Post by Tangrowth »

G-Man wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
G-Man wrote: You say Elo is the final Inmate. I say she's not. I realize that my mafia reputation is old, dusty, and out of practice but I believe in my votes analyses. Your mafia reputation versus mine- let's do this! :srsnod:
You're on.

Now vote for her and prove me right.
I still have her pegged as a possibility for Moloch but I'm hunting for Big Figure today. I'm not interested in voting for someone who I don't suspect of being Big Figure.
G-Man, what more do I have to say to convince you that Elo is mafia?
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1541

Post by Tangrowth »

You know how easy it would have been for a Sloonei teammate to cast Elo's D1 and D4 votes?

Easy.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1542

Post by Tangrowth »

And look at how both of you are writing her off because of it! It worked! Despite her post content consistently being the most anti-town game I've seen in a long time.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1543

Post by Ricochet »

MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.
I used to believe this as well, until Biblical. I took the votes + posts mix strategy in reading players. I never saw through Mordecai's balanced, blendy content, not to mention Esther and Rahab's entire gameplay, which looked spotless to me. I then got burn lynched for not being decisive on Mordecai. By contrast, Absalom (Llama) thrived (and later got to gloat about it, too) on reading only vote patterns and catching mafia.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1544

Post by Tangrowth »

If you keep Elo alive today despite the fact that she voted for me, a player she did NOT suspect and thought was civilian, during D3, then I don't know what to do with you guys.

It has NOTHING to do with the fact that it was me. She threw off onto a player she consistently thought was civilian, and in an incredibly significant lynch when espers could have died, because it was unpredictable and she couldn't decide what to do.

If you don't believe me, re-read Elo's EoD D3. She was bouncing ALL OVER. Wonder why? She couldn't decide what to do. She considered Cookie when I considered Cookie. Then I told her, boom make a decision, say a suspect, and she couldn't even do that. She eventually gave me G-Man, but she voted for me anyway.

Then she went into D4 hoping to ride the tide of the LoRab lynch, switching her tune when espers seemed a sure thing.

She did the same thing with her EoD D5 post.

If you read her posts, taking into account the suspicions of the thread at the time, I swear to you all, she has been the absolute definition of opportunistic mafia player. She is fabricating her suspicions.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1545

Post by Tangrowth »

Ricochet wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.
I used to believe this as well, until Biblical. I took the votes + posts mix strategy in reading players. I never saw through Mordecai's balanced, blendy content, not to mention Esther and Rahab's entire gameplay, which looked spotless to me. I then got burn lynched for not being decisive on Mordecai. By contrast, Absalom (Llama) thrived (and later got to gloat about it, too) on reading only vote patterns and catching mafia.
That's my point. It can't be ONLY vote analysis.

Elo's D1 and D4 votes can be seen as the weak distancing they are when you look at how she formed the suspicions surrounding the votes.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1546

Post by G-Man »

MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.

Epignosis bussed DDL by being the first to vote for him on D1 in Guess Who?. It guaranteed him a victory. Elo hosted that game. She clearly is trying to change up her baddie style here, and she did so sloppily.
I realize that vote analysis can take you only so far. This time, I'm using it to exonerate someone instead of indict them. There's a difference. Epi and Golden tricked me good in Guess Who but there were four teammates and no serial killer in that game. Moloch is an unknown and there are 3 inmates. With numbers and rivals like that, I can't see the Inmates being as brazen and reckless as Guess Who.

Also, our terms are binding no matter the outcome of the game and regardless of whether Elo is actually lynched. While I am putting my bossy pants back on today, please know that I am not posting out of spite or bitterness. I'm saying all these things with a smile on my face because, for the first time all game, I am having fun.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1547

Post by Tangrowth »

MovingPictures07 wrote:If you keep Elo alive today despite the fact that she voted for me, a player she did NOT suspect and thought was civilian, during D3, then I don't know what to do with you guys.

It has NOTHING to do with the fact that it was me. She threw off onto a player she consistently thought was civilian, and in an incredibly significant lynch when espers could have died, because it was unpredictable and she couldn't decide what to do.

If you don't believe me, re-read Elo's EoD D3. She was bouncing ALL OVER. Wonder why? She couldn't decide what to do. She considered Cookie when I considered Cookie. Then I told her, boom make a decision, say a suspect, and she couldn't even do that. She eventually gave me G-Man, but she voted for me anyway.

Then she went into D4 hoping to ride the tide of the LoRab lynch, switching her tune when espers seemed a sure thing.

She did the same thing with her EoD N4 post.

If you read her posts, taking into account the suspicions of the thread at the time, I swear to you all, she has been the absolute definition of opportunistic mafia player. She is fabricating her suspicions.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1548

Post by Bubbles »

ugh this is taking way too long, i'm sorry guys but it's 1am here and i have work tomorrow, i have to sleep. if someone would be kind enough to post a synopsis of the main ideas of the thread, especially anything about Bass, that would be extremely helpful. if not i'll just continue reading tomorrow night and hopefully have something constructive to post then!
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1549

Post by Tangrowth »

G-Man wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.

Epignosis bussed DDL by being the first to vote for him on D1 in Guess Who?. It guaranteed him a victory. Elo hosted that game. She clearly is trying to change up her baddie style here, and she did so sloppily.
I realize that vote analysis can take you only so far. This time, I'm using it to exonerate someone instead of indict them. There's a difference. Epi and Golden tricked me good in Guess Who but there were four teammates and no serial killer in that game. Moloch is an unknown and there are 3 inmates. With numbers and rivals like that, I can't see the Inmates being as brazen and reckless as Guess Who.

Also, our terms are binding no matter the outcome of the game and regardless of whether Elo is actually lynched. While I am putting my bossy pants back on today, please know that I am not posting out of spite or bitterness. I'm saying all these things with a smile on my face because, for the first time all game, I am having fun.
It doesn't matter what you can see. Stop theorizing how YOU would think the baddies would play, and LOOK at players' behavior.

Open your mind. It was only once I threw away Elo's meta that I realized she's playing a suspicious baddie game right in front of all of our faces.
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Re: Watchmen [Day 5]

#1550

Post by Ricochet »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Votes analyses can only get you so far.
I used to believe this as well, until Biblical. I took the votes + posts mix strategy in reading players. I never saw through Mordecai's balanced, blendy content, not to mention Esther and Rahab's entire gameplay, which looked spotless to me. I then got burn lynched for not being decisive on Mordecai. By contrast, Absalom (Llama) thrived (and later got to gloat about it, too) on reading only vote patterns and catching mafia.
That's my point. It can't be ONLY vote analysis.

Elo's D1 and D4 votes can be seen as the weak distancing they are when you look at how she formed the suspicions surrounding the votes.
Uh, my point was how I overanalysed posts, leading me nowhere, instead of relying only on votes. That's the contrary of what you're saying.

I'm still relying on both things, even in my current reads, but it's always food for thought.
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