Watchmen [ENDGAME]

#1551

I've said enough on the matter. I 100% want Elo to be lynched today. You folks do you want. But if she doesn't get lynched today and I get NKed because of it, and then she ends up being mafia, I will be not happy.

#1552

If you folks ISO Elo and seriously don't see the most suspicious baddie game out of any of the players here, then I don't know what else to say.

#1553

I've been SO wrong before, so anyone who's seen any of my times I've railroaded and been wrong, should know that I should be hesitant to agree to G-Man's bet. I did so with no hesitation.

#1554

Scotty, back me up here, buddy.

#1555

I'll roll out some tin foil at lunch. You can read anything you want into posts and perceived behavior- it's called overanalyzing. Did you learn nothing from taking me on in Economics? Sometimes people act strange for the simple reason that strange behavior keeps you in the game longer.

I personally do not have the time or energy to analyze posts as in-depth as you like to do. I wish I did but I just can't approach the game the way I used to. I went way too far down the rabbit hole in Biblical an I'm seeing where the limits are for my personal level of involvement.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I've been SO wrong before, so anyone who's seen any of my times I've railroaded and been wrong, should know that I should be hesitant to agree to G-Man's bet. I did so with no hesitation.

Oh, I have taken that into consideration. It initially gave me pause as to you being the last Inmate. But you don't strike me as someone who cares about having something silly in your signature. It's all in good fun and you can't be afraid to be wrong in this game or you'll never get far. You're either wrong and just extremely convinced you are right or you are the Inmate and trying to use reverse psychology on us because you are too far down the path to turn back now. I trust my technicolors this time- she's not the Inmate.

#1556

GMan I see the trepidation on Elo since it would appear MP is definitely tunneling to an extent, but what if he is right? He voted early for Godsakes.

I'm gonna lay out why I voted her so it's not just a localized opinion from MP:

I am almost positive mafia decided ika would utilize his weirdly mysterious and combative strategy, but I'm not sure they were expecting it to blow up in his face as much as it did (good thing it did) and so I'm looking through that lens in which his teammate would wholeheartedly take advantage of that.

Think of the timeline of the votes for espers. I think there's a lot to be learned from just the voting record and how it corresponds to what was said.

Russ' strongest read (thru weak reasoning and pressure from me to refine his read) was espers, and that was beginning of day 4. He committed to that and was actually 1st to vote. This was after ika subbed in. But even so, Russ followed through with his strongest read. Ika was already off his rocker, and at this point was losing favor with several people in the thread.
Could it be a bus? Possible. His strongest read being espers before the switcharoo, however, does NOT sound like a mafia behavior. Or should I say, behavior a sane mafia member would do.

I feel that Russ is my #3 pick right now. He could be Morloch, though honestly I dont know how to look for Morloch as well as MM thinks he does.

Next vote for espers is Cookie.
Cookie, I'm willing to admit, was a fence vote for me. She is either clueless civ and or cunning mafia. She voted for espers out of self defense immediately after I voted for her.
Ah, but also at this point LoRab had 2 (or 3...MM's picture was cut off there)
Votes, so why didn't she put her vote on someone with traction like LoRab? As far as I know, she didn't have major beef with either one.
This self defense vote seems more civ than others, though keeping mind that, again, ika's bombastic personality was already pissing some people off.

Like Elo.
Who hadn't voted yet. But I'm getting there..

In summary, Cookie voted for someone whom had some votes, opportunistic for sure, but also a bad move if you're going to be self-defensive I feel. It doesn't exonerate her, but it's not as damning to me as others.

Juliets then votes for espers. She picked up espers' behavior as off, and unfortunately that was her main read she had concocted (next to maybe Cookie) before she died. RIP Fighting the good fight.

Up next- Elo.
She broke the tie! It was LoRab (3) and espers (3). Off hand, that must mean she was integral in lynching ika, right? Wrong. Like I've already said twice, ika was in strong decline. I don't have time stamps that correspond to votes, but juliets' vote and Elo's "your style is pissing me off" post came around the same timeframe. MP has already made light of her opportunistic behavior, and swinging a vote to someone primarily because ika's style is pissing her off is Pure, unadulterated, Opportunism (tm). I'll come back to this.

It's now 4 votes espers, 3 votes LoRab. MP puts his vote on Cookie.
LoRab wraps up the day with an insurance vote on ika. If she were mafia, why didn't she just put it on Cookie and leave the vote up to the Gods? Well that isn't beneficial to her game in the long run. Just hedge her bet and move on. It'll look better for her in the long run.
Very opportunistic as well. Blendy.

I have her as my #1 at this point until

Elo posts a little more during the night phase about how she is sure she caught a baddie and hopes she survives the night phase.
MP pressures her.
She posts right before the deadline to appear as if she thought she was getting killed. Pfft she wasn't getting killed even if she were civ.
It was a detailed post about MP. How very,,.opportunistic. Gets the blood flowing and directed back on someone whom admittedly I (and DDL) had been pressuring on voting style. Mafia's play today is to make MP go down, and honestly MP doesn't look mafia. Morloch at best, but not mafia.

She hasn't posted yet. Could she be silenced? Sure. But I doubt it.

She is my #1.
I'm confident as shit the last mafia voted for and bussed espers.
If Elo isn't mafia, then LoRab is. If LoRab isn't it's either Russ or Cookie.
You can take that to the bank.

#1557

I get what you're saying about overanalyzing, G-Man, right now I feel I'm overheating, after doing full reads over and over the past three cycles. None of the reads show up clean, either, so I can easily fall into endless "what if's". Right now, I'm considering whether to do this to completion or focus on Elo / MP / others significant. But I have to finish watching cycling, finish a read on DDL I opened a tab on an hour ago and RL study for a couple of hours. Luckily Elo is next alphabetically.

Who is everyone's #2, if Elo is #1, or #1, if they aren't convinced it's Elo?

#1558

G-Man wrote:I'll roll out some tin foil at lunch. You can read anything you want into posts and perceived behavior- it's called overanalyzing. Did you learn nothing from taking me on in Economics? Sometimes people act strange for the simple reason that strange behavior keeps you in the game longer.

I personally do not have the time or energy to analyze posts as in-depth as you like to do. I wish I did but I just can't approach the game the way I used to. I went way too far down the rabbit hole in Biblical an I'm seeing where the limits are for my personal level of involvement.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I've been SO wrong before, so anyone who's seen any of my times I've railroaded and been wrong, should know that I should be hesitant to agree to G-Man's bet. I did so with no hesitation.
Oh, I have taken that into consideration. It initially gave me pause as to you being the last Inmate. But you don't strike me as someone who cares about having something silly in your signature. It's all in good fun and you can't be afraid to be wrong in this game or you'll never get far. You're either wrong and just extremely convinced you are right or you are the Inmate and trying to use reverse psychology on us because you are too far down the path to turn back now. I trust my technicolors this time- she's not the Inmate.

G-Man, what you say here is ironic, but it's fine. If you want to trust your list, so be it. But you're missing valuable information and that information is exactly what led Elo to make said votes, i.e., her posts.

I'm not "reading into" anything. In fact, that's what led me to have her in the top of my mafia reads before (instead of at the bottom), because I was figuring "Oh, Elo wouldn't do that" and other such statements.

When you take Elo's behavior at face value, you get someone that:
- D1: Suspected Sloonei for vague reasons after I and others applied pressure to Sloonei
- D1: Backed off of Sloonei suddenly, once I did so, and suspicion for him seemed to dry up
- D1: Voted for Sloonei once Sloonei already had a few votes and suspicion was heavily in his direction again, thanks to Llama

- D2: Opportunistic vote for MM because she "hates" self-votes, even though she previously said she suspects Long Con, yet never gave substantiation

- D3: Cast a vote for me, despite multiple iterations of believe I'm civilian, even in response to me questioning her AFTER the vote
- D3: She said that, with a "water gun" to her head, she would have voted G-Man
- D3: She claims she was just "messing with me", yet I could have easily died that lynch, since the player who died only had 2 votes
- D3: She refused to vote for her teammate, espers, this is key since espers didn't die only because of a COIN FLIP

- D4: She says "LoRab is one of the last two baddie members"
- D4: She votes espers / ika ONLY AFTER it is incredibly apparent that ika is going down, before that she does not show any intention to vote for him

These statement are NOT reading into anything. They are NOT tunneling.

They are facts. If you don't believe me, read her posts for yourself. If you think I have misrepresented any of them, please let me know. I have read all of her posts ISO twice now and firmly believe I have not.

I'm out of the thread now. I've made my case. Elo is mafia. Read her posts for yourself and make up your own mind.

#1559

Other useful links:

My response to her case against me at the end of N4

Every time Elo has issued an opinion on me prior to end of N4

Elo's opportunism

ISO on Elo, as of D4 before the vote ended, when I was trying to see all of her behavior from both perspectives

#1560

Rico, as for a #2 candidate from me, it would be Cookie. But I'm sure enough that it's Elo that I cast my vote already.

Now, you all can make up your minds and do whatever analysis you want. I voted already. I have stuff to get done today. I'll be back around EoD.

#1561

MovingPictures07 wrote:
G-Man wrote:I'll roll out some tin foil at lunch. You can read anything you want into posts and perceived behavior- it's called overanalyzing. Did you learn nothing from taking me on in Economics? Sometimes people act strange for the simple reason that strange behavior keeps you in the game longer.

I personally do not have the time or energy to analyze posts as in-depth as you like to do. I wish I did but I just can't approach the game the way I used to. I went way too far down the rabbit hole in Biblical an I'm seeing where the limits are for my personal level of involvement.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I've been SO wrong before, so anyone who's seen any of my times I've railroaded and been wrong, should know that I should be hesitant to agree to G-Man's bet. I did so with no hesitation.
Oh, I have taken that into consideration. It initially gave me pause as to you being the last Inmate. But you don't strike me as someone who cares about having something silly in your signature. It's all in good fun and you can't be afraid to be wrong in this game or you'll never get far. You're either wrong and just extremely convinced you are right or you are the Inmate and trying to use reverse psychology on us because you are too far down the path to turn back now. I trust my technicolors this time- she's not the Inmate.
G-Man, what you say here is ironic, but it's fine. If you want to trust your list, so be it. But you're missing valuable information and that information is exactly what led Elo to make said votes, i.e., her posts.

I'm not "reading into" anything. In fact, that's what led me to have her in the top of my mafia reads before (instead of at the bottom), because I was figuring "Oh, Elo wouldn't do that" and other such statements.

When you take Elo's behavior at face value, you get someone that:
- D1: Suspected Sloonei for vague reasons after I and others applied pressure to Sloonei
- D1: Backed off of Sloonei suddenly, once I did so, and suspicion for him seemed to dry up
- D1: Voted for Sloonei once Sloonei already had a few votes and suspicion was heavily in his direction again, thanks to Llama

- D2: Opportunistic vote for MM because she "hates" self-votes, even though she previously said she suspects Long Con, yet never gave substantiation

- D3: Cast a vote for me, despite multiple iterations of believe I'm civilian, even in response to me questioning her AFTER the vote
- D3: She said that, with a "water gun" to her head, she would have voted G-Man
- D3: She claims she was just "messing with me", yet I could have easily died that lynch, since the player who died only had 2 votes
- D3: She refused to vote for her teammate, espers, this is key since espers didn't die only because of a COIN FLIP

- D4: She says "LoRab is one of the last two baddie members"
- D4: She votes espers / ika ONLY AFTER it is incredibly apparent that ika is going down, before that she does not show any intention to vote for him

These statement are NOT reading into anything. They are NOT tunneling.

They are facts. If you don't believe me, read her posts for yourself. If you think I have misrepresented any of them, please let me know. I have read all of her posts ISO twice now and firmly believe I have not.

I'm out of the thread now. I've made my case. Elo is mafia. Read her posts for yourself and make up your own mind.

#1562

Stupid website.

#1563

G-Man, I'm just going to ignore that post, because you're being rude right now.

#1564

You owe me a gigantic "you were right" when Elo flips mafia.

#1565

DDL

Spoiler: show

Read: Interesting. A lot of things that could normally give pause. His Sloonei vote falls to me between Ninja's and Llama's confirmed (supa)town [and Bass' gut read on him, if that can count] and Elo's and espers' ones, which so far look "out of the blue and suspicious" and "confirmed bussing" respectively. His espers suspicion has been constant, but always far from ending up his top read during all the past Days. Both of his suspicions on them was not original content either, for which he was either called for (DH) or slightly acknowledged himself (on espers). He contributed to two mislynches with strong hunting / tunneling, although neither of those votes are the worst looking [maybe LoRab's in Golden's case and Cookie's for DH]. Sloonei and espers/ika appear more in quotes on his ISOs on players (such as MP) rather than on his original content. On the other hand, there is one post, in which DDL interacts with or references both confirmed Mafia members, that makes me reflect against being their teammate.

As for espers, the whole issue is the terrible d1 vote. He dropped a suspicion he had on me and had never suspected Sloonei before his vote (actually defending him once). Made an useless last minute vote that did not change the outcome. He justified it by saying he wanted to limit it to the winning players, but the vote was still useless.

If he's the last Inmate, that would translate in a very, very odd open dialogue between the Mafia: "hey espers, you bussed Sloonei by dropping your distancing from (and potential bussing on) me, I now have no choice but to hard distance from you".

DDL is right now the perfect example why I think I'm overheating with this readings. Post AND vote analysis make up for an ambivalent read. He could be a civ who is mislynching in his hunts and dropping his attention on players who turn out to be mafia (hey that resembles me a lot!) or the more experienced, focused, engaged Inmate of the whole group, trying to influence a lot of a good players dropping off. The latter could also be true if he's Moloch and has to fulfill an LMS win, no matter what. He's also throwing a lot of candidates for Moloch, but has yet to address DH's read of him (or me picking up DH's read as a potential pin). When Golden called him baddie, he was quick to say it's bull.

Idk, my gut tells me he could be a more likely candidate for Moloch rather than the last Inmate.

There you go. Overanalyzing. I hate myself now. I'll be back after studying.

#1566

MovingPictures07 wrote:G-Man, I'm just going to ignore that post, because you're being rude right now.

Bullshit. I'm nowhere near the level you reached in Econ. Remember- none of what I say is mean-spirited. I'll rip your post apart soon enough.

MovingPictures07 wrote:You owe me a gigantic "you were right" when Elo flips mafia.

It won't be necessary because she's not the Inmate. Even if she were, I wouldn't be able to give you a gigantic "you were right" because the forum settings won't let me post anything bigger than a huge "you were right".

#1567

#1568

Catching up.

MovingPictures07 wrote:DDL, just want to tell you: When I order my suspects within my rainbow lists, I do so alphabetically, not by order of suspicion. If they're the same color, that means I feel the same way about them.

I'll be back later tonight, folks!

I did a quick look at my ISOs. I admit this information does make a few of my points weaker, but it does not invalidate the main points. You had espers as your isolated red suspect on a few lists, for that matter, and your Cookie vote in both phase ends was quite sudden.

#1569

It's still early to be doing this but given MP07's relentless push on Elo today, I feel it necessary to examine everyone as if they were the last Inmate. That means it's time to apply a little...

Here is a link back to the most up-to-date technicolor vote lists.

TIN FOIL READ ON COOKIE:

Spoiler: show

TIN FOIL READ ON DRAGON:

Spoiler: show

TIN FOIL READ ON ELO:

Spoiler: show

TIN FOIL READ ON G-MAN:

Spoiler: show

TIN FOIL READ ON LORAB:

Spoiler: show

...and now I have work to do. If I finish early, I'll be back before 4:30. Cross your fingers! I love tin foil reads. They're fun.

#1570

Still catching up.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I actually think your manufactured case against me is even more cause for concern. You're falling down my list.

I have to point out a a pattern here. If you look at my ISO on you, you'll see there's a point where I call you out on OMGUS against people who do ISOs on you and call you a baddie. You did it first with me, then Russ, and now it seems you're doing with Eloh. I don't know if it's something natural of you, or a scum tell, but it would be nice if you could explain it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Guys, Elo is the last mafia. I'm sure of it. She's taking advantage of the momentum there is to vote for me, based on what DDL has been pushing, in order to lead a lynch on me. Her vote on D1 for Sloonei was clearly after seeing how Epi's vote succeeded for him in Guess Who?, and her sloppy distancing from Sloonei was real.

In fact, if you lynch Elo today and she comes back civilian, I implore all of you to lynch me immediately thereafter.

I'm almost completely sure Elo is not Big Figure, because it would have required her to sacrifice both of her teamates, and I don't think that's an optimal play to do.

She could, however, be Moloch, based on her behavior, which I agree is really fishy.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:MovingPictures is Mr Coolpants so let's lynch us a dragon. Tis the season.

Linki: Rezz please for our friend, the Helper of Dharma.

I am not Big Figure and I am not Moloch.

And honestly MM, you could do better than that. Even DH had more legitimate reasons to think I was Moloch, though he was also wrong. I explained why I thought he was a serial killer, and I think it's a pretty plausible theory.

#1571

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Still catching up.

MovingPictures07 wrote:I actually think your manufactured case against me is even more cause for concern. You're falling down my list.
I have to point out a a pattern here. If you look at my ISO on you, you'll see there's a point where I call you out on OMGUS against people who do ISOs on you and call you a baddie. You did it first with me, then Russ, and now it seems you're doing with Eloh. I don't know if it's something natural of you, or a scum tell, but it would be nice if you could explain it.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Guys, Elo is the last mafia. I'm sure of it. She's taking advantage of the momentum there is to vote for me, based on what DDL has been pushing, in order to lead a lynch on me. Her vote on D1 for Sloonei was clearly after seeing how Epi's vote succeeded for him in Guess Who?, and her sloppy distancing from Sloonei was real.

In fact, if you lynch Elo today and she comes back civilian, I implore all of you to lynch me immediately thereafter.
I'm almost completely sure Elo is not Big Figure, because it would have required her to sacrifice both of her teamates, and I don't think that's an optimal play to do.

She could, however, be Moloch, based on her behavior, which I agree is really fishy.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:MovingPictures is Mr Coolpants so let's lynch us a dragon. Tis the season.

Linki: Rezz please for our friend, the Helper of Dharma.
I am not Big Figure and I am not Moloch.

And honestly MM, you could do better than that. Even DH had more legitimate reasons to think I was Moloch, though he was also wrong. I explained why I thought he was a serial killer, and I think it's a pretty plausible theory.

To your point on assurance that Elo cannot be bad because she would have sacrificed her teammates?
Sloonei was a suspicion, then he wasn't, then he was once he had some votes on him.
Espers wasn't until ika started acting weird AND he was already in the hole so to speak.

I wouldn't call that a sacrifice more than an opportunity to gain cred

#1572

Scotty wrote:I'm having trouble sleeping.

Also food for thought:
MP re-proposed his case for Elo right after juliets was lynched, and asks people what they think.
And hour later, Elo posts in Frisky Dingo sign-ups with her interest to play.

I think she's cooked and she knows it.
Voting elo.

If this turns out to be valid point I'll lol hard

#1573

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Scotty wrote:I'm having trouble sleeping.

Also food for thought:
MP re-proposed his case for Elo right after juliets was lynched, and asks people what they think.
And hour later, Elo posts in Frisky Dingo sign-ups with her interest to play.

I think she's cooked and she knows it.
Voting elo.
If this turns out to be valid point I'll lol hard

She's also been lurking all day, so either she really is silenced or she's fake silenced. I want her to be real silenced like my great-aunt Martha. (She's dead, if you're curious)

#1574

@Scotty

But two sacrifices? With votes on both of them? Forget the opinions, look at the votes.

That kind of play only makes sense if you think you can gain enough cred to survive till the rest of the game. Do you think Eloh came even close to doing that?

I could only see that as possible if she thought espers was doomed and decided to make a risky gambit, upon realizing her faction's likehood of winning was shit anyway. While the Sloonei sacrifice, at that point, was seen as a safer move, with two other members left. Still, it sounds far-fetched.

Scotty, do you think Elo is a baddie, or you think she is Big Figure? I want to know what you think. Do you thinks she is more likely to be Big Figure than Moloch?

#1575

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:@Scotty

But two sacrifices? With votes on both of them? Forget the opinions, look at the votes.

That kind of play only makes sense if you think you can gain enough cred to survive till the rest of the game. Do you think Eloh came even close to doing that?

I could only see that as possible if she thought espers was doomed and decided to make a risky gambit, upon realizing her faction's likehood of winning was shit anyway. While the Sloonei sacrifice, at that point, was seen as a safer move, with two other members left. Still, it sounds far-fetched.

Scotty, do you think Elo is a baddie, or you think she is Big Figure? I want to know what you think. Do you thinks she is more likely to be Big Figure than Moloch?

I think that of the people that voted for espers, she is the most likely one to be mafia. I do not think she is Morlock. I would expect Morlock to introduce a lot of reads for multiple people, like MP or GMan.

But like I said, DDL, if you'll read my posts fully you'd know that I'm mafia hunting right now, not Morlock hunting.

#1576

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Russtifinko wrote:MP, yeah, without meta Elo's posts look bad. But as G-Man just pointed out, her votes look good. And more importantly, you HAVE to consider meta with Elo because she ALWAYS looks bad to some degree. (Kicks dead horse one last time for good measure.) your last post pretty much sums it up. No quote cuz I'm on phone, but you said "she fucking voted me" and in the next sentence "could it get any scummier?". You are tunneling HARD on this because you felt attacked, and you oughta check yourself.

I'm also not sure if I buy that you fake-suspected me, but we'll leave that for now.

And Scotty, you can question my motivation on what I said about MM, but the point remains: there is no benefit whatsoever to a lone baddie or indie to give the civs info we need and don't have. Completely altruistic gesture on his part.
Voting records are a tricky thing.

I already proved that both of her votes look terrible when combined with her content. She clearly was trying to decide whether to bus Sloonei. She CAST OFF onto someone she thought was "really civ" the D3 lynch when she easily could have bussed espers. She only bussed espers on D4 when it was inevitable he was dying.

Russ, I swear to god I've checked myself. Elo's behavior is classic baddie.

What kind of civilian can't even articulate her reads during EoD D3? It's because she is MAKING UP SUSPECTS.

BUT ALL OF THIS APPLIES TO YOU TOO! Maybe even more than to Elo

Seriously, dude, get some condiments for your hat. DDL is right-you're just blindly going after anyone who suspects you this game. I would think it made you the third baddie, if it didn't put you in the front of every single discussion (which I have to believe you'd be smart enough to avoid if you were bad).

Tiny, you shouldn't finish your read tomorrow because the vote ends today. And I'm still waiting to hear from LoRab. Again, she's tough for me to read, but her contributions have been minimal, and Not talking today of all days looks a lot like sitting back and letting a 2-candidate lynch happen.

#1577

Another question:

What was the thing that made you decide to vote Eloh? Was her case on MP, which she made last Night Phase, or she was already the main suspect of yours beforehand?

#1578

WTF it does not apply to me!!!!!

Elo voted for someone she thought was super civ on D3

Am I going fucking crazy? How do you all not see it?

I'm staking my reputation right now.

DDL, it wasn't the case on me, though that's what caused me to start rethinking my read of her. It's realizing that she has been placing all of her suspicions opportunistically.

#1579

Russ

Stop. Stop seeing me as tunneling and read the words I am saying!

Elo's behavior this game is nothing like mind, her voting record is totally different than mine

#1580

And I am NOT NO Uing her.

Actually read the damn case she made, it's bullshit

She says he reread me, that alone is bullshit. No one has reread me.

#1581

I refuse to have my words written off as tunneling or NO U

If a baddie Elo wins this game I will fucking flip

#1582

If you guys aren't going to cast your votes for Elo today, cast them for me. Please.

#1583

MovingPictures07 wrote:No one has reread me.

Well that's a pretty strong point. If someone did an ISO on you more than once I'd call them not human.

#1584

Elohcin wrote: MP - To answer your question, I don't know how many times I have to tell you all, I was not in my right mind on the eveing of Day 3. I had VERY little sleep the night before and I was so very giddy and tired. Everything was hilarious to me at the time. The fact that you keep harping on it, gives me reason to think you're bad. That, along with DDL's thoughts on your EoD behavior, has caused me to want to reread you. First, DDL's thoughts on you.

This all is BULLSHIT.

#1585

Me llamo supatown

#1586

MP, calm down. I knew you'd be pissed by the NO U point, but I had to point it out.

I have a question for you about Elo. Don't you think Elo's votes are way too risky for Big Figure, specially considering she would be sacrificing both of her teamates?

I'm asking those questions because I'm way more interested in hunting Big Figure now than Moloch, so I want to know what you guys think.

#1587

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:MP, calm down. I knew you'd be pissed by the NO U point, but I had to point it out.

I have a question for you about Elo. Don't you think Elo's votes are way too risky for Big Figure, specially considering she would be sacrificing both of her teamates?

I'm asking those questions because I'm way more interested in hunting Big Figure now than Moloch, so I want to know what you guys think.

I don't blame you for pointing it out. I'm sorry I'm upset. I just don't want anyone writing off my points as a NO U. I really want people to read what I have to say. Then, if you've read it with the most open mind possible and you think it's a lot of crock, then that's fine.

No, they're not risky. I'm glad you asked, because even I thought earlier in the game they might be risky, but hear me out.

1) First off, this game is a one mafia team only game. As we saw in Guess Who? and Economics, making just one vote to throw a teammate under the bus is actually less risky than defending them, since you control all the NKs. Of course, I realize there's a weird LMS guy in this game that might throw a wrench into that, but since he hasn't NKed yet, let's just assume this is mostly sound.

2) A vote must be examined alongside that player's casting of it in order to determine the strength with which it was cast. Wouldn't you agree? That's why people were calling espers out for Days, since he turned around and voted Sloonei after seeming as though he'd vote somewhere else.

When you look at Elo's posts (here is my ISO) for Sloonei on D1, here's what she says:

Elohcin wrote: I am feeling uneasy about:
G-Man - does not claim to be civ (may be a watchman - those with the additional win condition) but possibly Mafia
Sloonei - Just something about him reads scummy to me. Can't put my finger on it.

Elohcin wrote:Sloonei, as I read all your posts together, I am failing to find anything that sticks out to me as scummy. I am not sure what gave me that vibe while reading the thread. I will table this gut feeling for now.

Elohcin wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Elo, thanks!

How about: Where are you leaning for your vote today? Has it changed at all?

Linki with Ninja
If no one was finding me suspicious, I would most likely vote for G-man or sloonei (I know I said I would table my thoughts on sloonei). But, I am still back and forth on sloonei. He now finds me suspicious b/c I reread him and decided that I couldn't find any hard evidence against him? What?!? I wish G-Man would come in and talk.

But it looks like I may be trying to save myself :/
Why did you read him as "scummy" the first time, then? Moreover, why did you give in to a "vibe" rather than rereading him, if it would have left to the same lack of hard evidence, in theory?
I didn't give into a vibe, I just mentioned it. He challenged me to reread him and I found nothing astoundingly scummy. That was all. But his response to my response IS scummy to me.

MP your case on scotty makes a lot of sense.

Only once Sloonei started receiving heavy heat again.

Elohcin wrote:I voted sloonei b/c of his response to me. That was odd for a civ.

Her vote timing was impeccable, but her reasons are vague, and her distancing is sloppy.

Nonetheless, everyone here except for me and Scotty thinks her votes would have been too risky.

Don't you agree that defending a teammate would have been riskier here?

#1588

Then, regarding her espers vote on D4, she only cast it after espers's behavior was being called suspicious by the entire thread. I can pull quotes again if you want. Anyway, her vote for espers was actually the LEAST risky move that a teammate could make at that point. It would be much more risky throwing off (like G-Man did onto MM) or casting a vote on LoRab or Cookie, since she could have tied it up, saved espers again, and then once espers eventually flipped, she would have been seen as saving a teammate.

The way she cast the espers / ika vote on D4 was actually brilliant, since it's exactly the move that is currently securing her in everyone's minds right now as NOT an Inmate, but remember that espers had the most votes, tied with DH, on Day 3.

What would have been TRULY risky for her to do would have been to cast that 3rd vote for espers on D3 and sealed his fate then. If she had done that, there's no way I'd be proclaiming her as bad right now, and I'd be in total agreement with you, DDL.

But she didn't do that.

#1589

I did a full retread on LoRab. I don't really see much of a baddie angle in her posts. Not that I see a supra town one either, just nothing horrible stands out. Her style reminds me vaguely of Roxy. People who've played with her before, does she usually express so much appreciation about being suspected?

I'm probably ignoring the MP-Elo thing today. Sorry MP, I know you won't like that.

#1590

I also firmly believe Elo cast her espers / ika vote purely for the reason that she thinks it was the only way she could get to endgame by herself.

Want proof? Look at the way G-Man and Russ are defending her because of it.

#1591

Russtifinko wrote:I did a full retread on LoRab. I don't really see much of a baddie angle in her posts. Not that I see a supra town one either, just nothing horrible stands out. Her style reminds me vaguely of Roxy. People who've played with her before, does she usually express so much appreciation about being suspected?

I'm probably ignoring the MP-Elo thing today. Sorry MP, I know you won't like that.

No, I don't like that.

Please fucking at least read what I have to say.

#1592

Russ:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Other useful links:

My response to her case against me at the end of N4

Every time Elo has issued an opinion on me prior to end of N4

Elo's opportunism

ISO on Elo, as of D4 before the vote ended, when I was trying to see all of her behavior from both perspectives

As I said just right above to DDL, I just don't want anyone writing off my points as a NO U. I really want people to read what I have to say. Then, if you've read it with the most open mind possible and you think it's a lot of crock, then that's fine.

#1593

Regarding LoRab though, Russ, I'll at least tell you that she seems like totally normal LoRab to me, in terms of demeanor and handling suspicion.

#1594

I'm seriously shutting myself away from this thread now. Don't just skim all of my posts as crap. I have real content that I really believe in, or else I would have never said it.

#1595

MovingPictures07 wrote:Then, regarding her espers vote on D4, she only cast it after espers's behavior was being called suspicious by the entire thread. I can pull quotes again if you want. Anyway, her vote for espers was actually the LEAST risky move that a teammate could make at that point. It would be much more risky throwing off (like G-Man did onto MM) or casting a vote on LoRab or Cookie, since she could have tied it up, saved espers again, and then once espers eventually flipped, she would have been seen as saving a teammate.

The way she cast the espers / ika vote on D4 was actually brilliant, since it's exactly the move that is currently securing her in everyone's minds right now as NOT an Inmate, but remember that espers had the most votes, tied with DH, on Day 3.

What would have been TRULY risky for her to do would have been to cast that 3rd vote for espers on D3 and sealed his fate then. If she had done that, there's no way I'd be proclaiming her as bad right now, and I'd be in total agreement with you, DDL.

But she didn't do that.

And yet, despite the "entire thread" calling espers/ike suspicious, you flinch and vote for someone else for the SECOND DAY IN A ROW!

You're angry, you're desperate, and you're flailing. You may not be either the inmate or Moloch but frankly, you're not helping and need to be eliminated from this game. I am very strongly leaning towards voting out you and your outbursts. Something feels off about you and has almost all game. I want to believe that it's just the PhD work.

#1596

MovingPictures07 wrote:Regarding LoRab though, Russ, I'll at least tell you that she seems like totally normal LoRab to me, in terms of demeanor and handling suspicion.

Thanks MP.

And I have been reading what you say. Remember, I said even if I 100% assume you're civ, the case doesn't hold water for me. And the NO U angle would be easy to ignore if it wasn't your third one. It's a bit boy who cried wolf to keep telling us to ignore potential NO Us and then case build on everyone who suspects you, wouldn't you agree?

And G-man, I would feel exactly the same way, but it just seems too easy. I know MP likes to be in the thick of things regardless, but it just seems too ballsy as the last baddie, even for him.

#1597

I just want to say that I'm sorry if I've upset anyone. I'm not trying to upset anyone.

Go ahead and vote me if you wish.

#1598

Elohcin still eligible to have been silenced.

Also, two of her Night 4 votes seem notable to me.

Elohcin wrote:IF MP is bad, I will be blown away. He's played a good baddie game. But, DDL does make some good points about his EoD behavior and his vote doesn't look so good today. I will be taking a good look at everyone and the voting records over the next 47 hours.

Elohcin wrote: I am going to use the night to evaluate players and votes, but I have one particular person I am really convinced is the last mafia. I will share my thoughts and answer all questions during the day.

For one thing, she has made no attempt, apart from a rebuttal/case on MP, to make good on this plan. Or was that rebuttal actually it, since she implied she's confident Big Figure is the only baddie left?

Secondly, if she's not Big Figure, this type of statements would strike me as the kind that would get a player silenced. Of course, the civ silencer could have just as well do this to her.

What do you think? If she's not silenced, at this point, I imagine her simply coming in during the late hour and plant a self-defence vote.

#1599

TIN FOIL READ ON METALMARSH89:

Spoiler: show

TIN FOIL READ ON MOVINGPICTURES07:

Spoiler: show

D1: 11th vote overall, 2nd vote for Scotty. Talks up suspicions of his teammate early and then slowly backs it down with detailed posts on why Sloonei isn't so suspicious after all. It's subtle defense hidden behind personal observations and reasoning. In theory, he shouldn't get called out on back-tracking on Sloonei because he provided oh so much evidence to support his waning suspicions. He then latches onto Bass's suspicions of Scotty and posts a very detailed theory on why Scotty must be bad. See that? He subtly defended Slooeni while trying to stir the pot on Scotty- both times using his big-talker meta as a shield for his wicked intentions. His vote for Scotty has it 2-2 between Niju and Scotty and just one vote behind his teammate. All he needs is one or two followers to take the bait and get then he can castigate them for their votes after the fact. Too bad no one bit. Possibly silenced himself because that's what baddies do when they think they can get away with it.

D2: Misses the vote. He was silenced and couldn't vote but he wastes his silencing because he's not even on the poll so it doesn't build any sympathy for him whatsoever. Maybe he even encouraged espers to skip the vote because- hey, no Inmates on the poll so why even stick our necks out with a vote?

D3: Keeps his teammate in his top tier of suspects and waits until almost the last minute to vote. Why? To see if espers needs his help. He knows he can't vote DH without getting called on it so he votes sideways for one of his other suspects, using Cookie's rough game against her. He tries to pump up the "Cookie is bad!" wavelength something fierce but no one bites. He gets lucky because espers survived the lynch poll tie. Now he needs someone new to rail against alongside Cookie and decides now is the time to use Elo's odd play this game against her.

D4: 9th vote overall, 3rd vote on Cookie. His vote brings Cookie within 1 vote of tying espers/ika. Despite a lot of agreement that espers/ika is bad new, he caves and falls back on Cookie a second day in a row. It's designed to look consistent though because she doesn't look so great and was in MP07's suspect list already. After the flip, he goes hard at pushing his Elo case. He silences her Night 4 and stirs the pot early by voting for her amidst his verbosity. It attracts a second vote before anyone's realized that Elo has been possibly silenced.

Back to work...

#1600

Hey I just realized, DH was the first departure from the "kill the most civ person" strategy. At least he wasn't my top civ read, and I don't remember anyone saying he was theirs. Who did he suspect/vote for before dying? And do you guys think the departure is just because espers is dead and someone else took over, or could they have felt threatened by DH specifically?

Linki: she's been lurking in thread, so I figure she's silenced. That's come with a vote block as well, right? So there probably won't be a self-defense vote from her today.

Who deserves justice?