Watchmen [ENDGAME]

#2001

Welcome!

#2002

Welcome, Made! Hope you succeed at catching up with all those posts lol.

@Ricochet

Yeah I admit there's some "entrapping", like you put it. Not that I necessarily want to incriminate you with it, I just want you to lead the conversation at some point where it proves my theory. But my theory alone does not necessarily incriminate you.

Unfortunately I can't say my theory out loud because it's related to night info, so I keep fgiving hints and trying to make people figure out on their own. I admit my attempts haven't been really successful, and I might as well try something else.

Then again, if you really want to contribute with the whole thing, I have to say the intent here wasn't to make you explain your personal method about night killing, it was meant for you to talk about me. Specifically, how you would deal with me in this game, if you were Big Figure and I wasn't in your faction. As for the third option, I admit I forgot about it, sorry.

As for the ISO, I have to say I'm doing it in chronological order, so if you start talking about Eloh again later, I'll notice when I go do the d5 ISO. I just have to point out every weird thing I see, and speculate on what it may mean. Maybe you stopped talking about Eloh on d4 for an honest reason, or maybe for a bad reason, and I need to consider that.

tessepia · #2003

Y'all are playing together so nicely, kiddies, you make a Bovine proud

But never forget that I am just a PM away if you want to vent to the Game Mod

#2004

You mean you haven't received mine?!

#2005

Anyone else intrigued that there was no kill Night 5 and the only player seemingly MIA during that time frame is now being replaced?

I also didn't see anyone come out strong against anyone Day 6 like I would expect someone to after blocking a player and there being no kill. Protection could explain it but it's almost too juicy to set aside. I'm trying really hard not to jump back into my "Where in the World is Keyser Freaking Söze" mindset but dang.

#2006

Protection, roleblock or bulletproof. All ways I can see a kill failing.

They all depend on one of the three secret roles, though.

#2007

And someone also suggested that Big Whatever actually only inherits one of the 2 kills, and there was no mafia kill last night. Which seemed like an out there idea, although then reading the role descriptions it seems plausible.

Or missed PM.

Those are my top 2 guesses.

#2008

LoRab wrote:And someone also suggested that Big Whatever actually only inherits one of the 2 kills, and there was no mafia kill last night. Which seemed like an out there idea, although then reading the role descriptions it seems plausible.

Or missed PM.

Those are my top 2 guesses.

I was the one who suggested it, but now I'm having second thoughts about it because it would probably make the Inmates really underpowered in this game.

#2009

Actually Night Owl 1 could also have used his protect too, now that I think about it.

#2010

July 27, 1985

Word from Dr. Manhattan

You have 24 hours to lynch someone.

#2011

How about now?

#2012

No.... fucking idea?

Occam's Razor suggests whatever prevented people from died last phase was the same thing that happened in those, but even that is something we can't be sure of.

Anyway, I have an ISO to finish.

#2013

So no death again...

Sorry, Made, this is not looking good for you.

Other thoughts from the night:

Cookie wrote:
Scotty wrote:
LoRab wrote:
Scotty wrote:
LoRab wrote:Disappointing result. My being lynched would have been equally disappinting. Not sure a lynch of cookie would have been bad, having voted that way and all.

Thoughs haven't changed since I went to sleep. Hope to survive the night.
You're golden, I think I'm on the chopping block unfortunately.

Shame, because I feel like we really could have eliminated that problem.
So who do you see me is being elimininaed from that problem?
That sentence doesn't make sense.
But I'm talking about cookie
Honestly if I was BF, MP would have died in the NK when he first insisted that I was mafia, I think it was D3 or D4 when he put a lot of heat on me.

Translation: If I was WIFOM, WIFOM would have WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM if I was mafia, WIFOM.

Also, interesting, somewhat subtle role claim from DDL.

My vote will likely go to Made, Cookie, or maybe G-Man (for old time's sake).

#2014

Bernard's choose of suspects this time is actually pretty interesting.

#2015

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Bernard's choose of suspects this time is actually pretty interesting.

More than half the players, with only 2 baddies left.

And it seems to be a message from Dr M, not Bernard--so not clear if Bernard from the grave or Dr M maybe using his role (since we don't know his role description, hard to say).

At any rate, what about it did you find particularly interesting?

#2016

Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?

#2017

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?

I'm not convinced Bernard wrote the list.

And, still, more suspects than possible slots.

#2018

If the list is from Bernard, he's suspected almost everybody by now. Would he suspect himself? I've seen it both ways before. Some do, some don't.

#2019

Continuation of Ricochet's ISO.

He spends the phase posting reads of a few players in a series of big posts. I really tried to quote them all but I can't get the BBCode to work without breaking something.

His main suspects are Cookie, Eloh and LoRab. Eloh comes back to the list as he promised, and it seems the D4 thing was just a change of focus. Though it could also be a baddie prolonguing his tunneling further so he could get another free day to vote Eloh.

Also a neutral read on me, pretty similar to the one he made day 4. And finally, what looks like a neutral read on Bass/TB.

After spending the day doing that and replying to a couple stuff, the phase comes close to an end and he says this:

Ricochet wrote:I am probably going to stop with the reads (or maybe do one more, which would mean LoRab ) and focus on Eloh/MP. I'm failing at my own practice.

No suspicions on MP before, though looking at the poll it's easy to see he wants to look closely at the two players who are in danger of being lynched. A departure from the previous few phases? Yeah, but a positive departure I'd say.

Unless...

Ricochet wrote:w-wh wh wha

oh my lord I crashed out. windows, tabs, everything open... I woke up five hours later.

Sorry. I need to reevaluate my life.

RIP Eloh.

Okay, if he is mafia and made this up he is really creative. I really doubt this post is faked.

But if he's bad, a mafia player wouldn't need to dodge an Eloh vote this time. He spent the entire game tunneling on Eloh. He earned it. It would be a failed lynch, but nobody could ever call him out for being inconsistent, and heck, it would shut up anyone who would call him out for spending the game making useless votes.

If this is faked, it's probably only to avoid Rorscharch. Actually, a lot of Ricochet's game makes sense if you look at it as an intentional avoidance of our resident ninja. Unfortunately, that says jack shit about Rico's alignment.

#2020

Also that line got deleted somehow, but the post above was about Ricochet's Night 4 / Day 5

#2021

Night 5 / Day 6

Spoiler: show

Ricochet wrote:
Spoiler: show
MovingPictures07 wrote:Before I leave, I have a random question for everyone:

Let's say that Epi decided you won some contest and gave you one role check to be used tonight. Which player would you use it on and why?

The reason I ask this question is in realizing that we can only afford 2 more mislynches (3 and we lose) going forward. So I want players to actively think about not only which players seem most likely to be mafia, but also which players would be more unpredictable or dangerous to have around in LyLo.

(for those who are unaware of the terminology, LyLo = Lynch and Lose, and it indicates the lynch/Day period in which, if the civilians mislynch one of their own, they lose the game)

I think this is worth discussing.

Be back later.
Off the top of my head, probably you, LoRab or DDL. Maybe MM, too. I still don't know what to think of him.

But I imagine myself dying of a heart attack if I'd end up in a lylo, because of the tension. We definitely need to do better with lynches from now on. I'd call to focus on Moloch as well, not just say "we'll save him for last after we nail Big Figure". Missing either of them would be extremely detrimental from now on.

From what I got, these are the players Ricochet is having the most trouble reading. That would place Cookie as his main suspect, the others as the difficult ones, and the rest as town reads (TB, Scotty, Russ and G-Man). Unless he forgot/didn't bother to mention someone. Point it out if that's the case, Rico.

Well Night 5 ends here, and Day 6 starts now.

Ricochet wrote:Updates:

TinyBubbles - hasn't played one bit. I have nothing to work with. If she's landed a bad role (BF or Moloch), it'll be a desolate endgame if we lose. Based on Bass' performance, still inclined to call it slightly civ.

Cookie - no change. Offered more reads and ideas in the meantime, out of which the interesting thing I got was her idea of LoRab's vote for ika mirroring a potential bussing of an already toast teammate, the same way espers bussed Sloonei when it was half clear he'll get lynched; that, combined with the defense of voting in self-preservation, can constitute a bit of blending. She's [Cookie, that is] a bit more comfortable handing out civ tags than I personally am, but fine, at least there's something to take note of her views on everyone else. Her top current suspects, assuming a vote would materialize from them, are LoRab (ok), MP (she said she won't vote for him, though) and MM (she only found two strange things in his gameplay, yet is putting him at the top? sounds a bit comfy). Keeping a close eye on her.

DDL - no improvement from previous read, in fact I actually feel worse about him. He ended up D4 calling MP scum and ISO'd the hell out of him on N4, but the next Day it all kinda vanished. He acknowledge a bit of his ISO was inaccurate, but was that really enough to take the pedal off him? I don't think it was ever clear, if so. States several times - in real time with MP's case on Eloh, furthermore - that he doesn't find Elo to be Big Figure, only to return and find MP's and Scotty's arguments convincing. Nothing inherently bad with that, since I myself found some of those angles interesting indeed (plus Eloh's whole gameplay truly awful), but this feels too flexible and non-committal, compared to the DDL that hunted and challenged hard on his own. (Golden, D2; DH, D3; MP, D4) I don't like this. Considering a vote for DDL today.

G-Man - no change, I think. Also, check Scotty for a bit more speculation on him.

LoRab - Hasn't been really into the game since D4, when she mostly focused on defending herself and getting herself out of being lynched. I don't remember hearing a suspect from her apart from G-Man the first three days. Oh, you prefer sticking with your leads, rather than being in the loop with others? "Frankly dear..." No change from what I already wrote about her. I'm sorry, but just like with Eloh (even if she was good), you will seriously have to tell how am I supposed to trust LoRab. I'm feeling she's completely detached from the main events and it only makes me more wary. I wouldn't mind voting her today.

MM

Spoiler: show
Day 1: 2nd vote for Ninja (Ninja at 2, all the other eventual wagons not even commenced)
Day 2: self-votes because he's MM and AWOL (first vote of the Day as well, will end up in a tie with Golden and survive)
Day 3: misses vote
Day 4: 1st vote for LoRab, on her being opportunistic and tunneling with her votes (first vote of the Day as well, LoRab will end up with three votes, tied with Cookie, ika will get lynched with 5)
Day 5: only vote for DDL, on his Moloch speculation and profiling him as Moloch (you guessed it, first vote of the Day)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - allocates an "ike" emoticon to him; admits voting alongside Sloonei, but for simple reasons of voting anyone; later comments on LC's theories of Eloh being Sloonei's teammate; defends himself against Scotty by not actually defending much and agreeing his vote followed Sloonei's (WIFOM planting?)

espers - allocates espers a "mole rat" emoticon; absolutely nothing else
ika - recommends to him to vote LoRab
Read: Enigma. Earlier I thought his banter and fluffing was coming off baddish, but it's hardly a tenth of the stuff he usually pulls; he's far more detached than that. His lack of confrontation with the field, as well as total lack of interaction or read on the confirmed Mafia members (whether distancing or not), doesn't bring in mind the baddie profile I had of him, either. His only semblance of a real case was on LoRab, but then he didn't seem to care about it anymore the next Day. The only pattern I could speculate on (tin-foil-style, let's say) is that his acknowledging of his D1 being close to Sloonei's would be WIFOM planting, and that his suggestion to ika to "simply vote LoRab" could be dastardly buddying (although ika never paid attention to him, so it's probably just banter). His latest speculation is that DDL is Moloch, because it fits the profile of a dormant baddie who hunts a lot to look good. But wouldn't the angle of a dormant Moloch who doesn't do anything also seem plausible? His dismissal of G-Man's suspicions on him, openly saying he doesn't care one bit if he'd get voted by him, could also be notable.
I have no idea where to place MM - yeah, bet you've never heard that before - I'm not too sure he could be the last Inmate and his detachment makes me think the odds are: 60% he's just MM, 30% he's Moloch, 10% he's - yeah, I'll say it* - an unlynchable** Manhattan who also gives no fucks about what happens (MM could have rezz'd Scotty to amend for the D1 banter they had; or for the lulz).

*this is pure speculation, please treat it as such; I've checked with Epig before to see if I'm allowed to make such a specific speculation; if you find it unplausible, think back to Death Note (if you've played it); **I'm not sure Epig's deist views of designing a mafia game would allow for an overpowered, unlynchable Manhattan, but still...he was overpowered and unkillable in the comics and the Watchmen, as far as it's shown, are fairly designed up to lore

Russtifinko

Spoiler: show
Day 1 - 2nd vote for G-Man, finding his wording strange (Sloonei at 4, Ninja at 3)
Day 2 - misses vote
Day 3 - misses vote
Day 4 - 1st vote for ika, for behavior (tied with LoRab)
Day 2 - 2nd vote for MP, to keep binary lynch close (brings MP at 2, with Eloh at 3)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - indirectly considers llama's points on him having merits (Sloonei's defensiveness being off-putting)
espers - considers his D1 vote the most suspicious, but find there's need to develop his view further; then finds him "above-board" for content; finds him safe vote for D3, although based only on his stated suspicious (which he considers not to be much); D4, keeps espers as mild suspicion; then (at Scotty's inquiry), considers him top read; votes ika for behavior; profiles last teammate as somebody who didn't buss espers on D3, but did on D4
Read: I'm not getting any strong bad vibe from browsing his posts, especially since he got more engaged in the game - he's going deep into reading, relying on gut and meta, participating and challenging others with reads etc. - but some of the interaction above is spotty, just like with many others. He consented to the general view on Sloonei, finding his defensiveness off-putting the way llama put it, but he focused otherwise on Eloh and G-Man and voted late for the latter, in a lynch train that was hardly relevant (despite G-Man's actions being a hot topic). It sounds reasonable, but it's also susceptible to a tin foil version of planting a suspicion on Sloonei to look good, then act in different directions. Just like with Bass, I will be absolutely floored if Russ would turn out to have been part of a surviving Mafia (alongside espers) which totally slacked off almost two Days in a row. His "mild suspicions" on espers, that failed to materialize into a vote until D4, have been brought up before and it was what he started getting some heat for. His early vote for ika technically makes him look good, but since ika totally bombed his exit, it's still believable that he would have been bussed without hesitation. His defense for Eloh makes me feel better, overall. As I've said, I'm reading a Russ who is putting a good game since he got into it for good. I can't decide at the moment how strongly, apart from the shoddy details mentioned above, I suspect him.

Scotty

Spoiler: show
Day 1 - Votes Eloh (vote hardly relevant within the eventual dynamic of the lynch: Sloonei currently at 1, Ninja at 2, G-Man also having a vote)
Day 4 - 1st vote for Cookie (ties her with LoRab and ika)
Day 5 - 2nd vote for Eloh, finds her very likely Big Figure (Eloh at 2, DDL at 1)

Interactions with confirmed Mafia members

Sloonei - wasn't pinged by his game; anything else is in context with other reads or discussions

espers - inquires him on reads; talk about D0 results; the rest is in context with other reads, discussion, other players' reads on espers; agrees the replacement is very suspicious; adds ika to his lynch options, based on MP and Russ reads
Scotty is hunting and failing so far, something that he himself acknowledged after the Eloh fail. I'm naturally inclined not to suspect mislynchers right off the bat (being a grave one myself, usually) and most of Scotty's hunting doesn't look to be superficial, tunneling or fake to me. His lack of Sloonei ping and odd voting got him in trouble after D1, to which him being NK'd is a strong indicator that it couldn't have been a sacrifice within the Mafia team. That being said, his shallow surface direct reads on the confirmed Mafia members, compared to always bringing other players in context with them, is pretty undesirable. I will say this, I will basically flip barking mad if Manhattan screwed up and resurrected a baddie Scotty (either Inmate or Moloch), because it feels like a defenseless situation to deal with. His death and rezz doesn't exonerate him from the odds of being bad, but I cannot say I'm getting bad vibes from him right now. I'm noticing a lot of focus from him on G-Man and I'm wondering if there's not something subtle about it; he seems to try to find a bad angle on everything G-Man is doing, even that D3 vote situation, which I personally still can't wrap my head around as being indicative of G-Man being bad - this may be slight tunnel-ish, but I makes me wonder all the more if Scotty isn't aware of something.

In case you're wondering where's the read on MP, hol' up for a few more hours. I'm probably risking again to drag my reads (and my sanity) near to the late deadline hours, but in case I'll feel that'll be the case, I'll focus right away on a shorter version and provide it.

Suspicions haven't changed much. Though he is now suspecting me more, The change wasn't as dramatic as I initially thought, and the lack of a death on night 6 may have thrown a wrench on my theory regarding him. The rest are our usual customers, LoRab and Cookie.

I'll be honest, I don't wanna live in an universe where Cookie or LoRab are mafia and get to live to endgame and win.

Next is some arguing with LoRab, which I'm not quoting because "arguing with LoRab" probably makes at least 5% of the total posts from every player in this game. Also argues with me a bit, and doesn't like my responses.

Also this:

Ricochet wrote:I'm fairly in agreement with Scotty's criticism of Cookie, but unfortunately it still doesn't tell me if she's a civvie who is triggering a lot of heat or the last Inmate who is attempting to blend in with the readers and comes up short. Those NK/lynch speculations of her really boggle my mind: didn't she repeatedly said she's surprised MP hasn't been lynched yet? Her new version is that she didn't call MP mafia during the Night to not risk being NKd if MP is mafia, but now that, ha ha, it didn't happen and MP is on the table to be lynched, she can fully endorse it? What brand of WIFOM is this, Chardonnay?

Nothing to say about, but felt like quoting.

Ricochet wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Scotty wrote:Whether or not this lynch works out for us, I'm kind of interested to see who tries to pick me apart, since if Rorschach's still alive, he's gonna have to try.
Ey?
I'm attempting to whittle down who my watchmen reads are for when we can catch Morlock (if he's still alive), and if we make the right decision and kill Big Figure tonight.

Rico, where are you leaning right now?
DDL tbh. I'm more drawn in by how everything seems in place with his game (the hunting, analysing, focused play), yet it makes me feel less good by the day. One good first Day, then two bad hunts he contributed to significantly, a murky D4 (I can't even remember how committed he was to LoRab being bad, since he ended the Day being pinged to scum level by MP) and the switchy D5 (having all the premise, propensity and ISO backcheck to stick strongly with MP, but ending up agreeing with the Eloh case on an angle that he wasn't focused on or confident in). Plus he's MO is looking for intense bussing (in BF's case) and detachment (in Moloch's case), but what if it's the other way around and the last Inmate worked in different ways and Moloch is hunting and civ-looking to survive the longest and find comfort in cleaning up the players via lynch?

linki: I meant dropping that self-preserve intention, Russ.

Eventually he leans his suspicions toward me, and makes it into a vote.

Alright, opinions. I think Rico is looking better after this series of ISOs than what I thought of him before doing it. It was still worth it doing this because like I said, he was flying past my radar. My biggest gripe about him is how, like MM said, his votes have had a long track record of not actually meaning anything to the poll result. But there is a lot of consistency, and logical method to his suspicions, and overall he seems like a very careful townie who wants to keep a good view of the game at all times.

I won't exclude the possibility of him being mafia (either BF or Moloch), but right now, I'm inclined to put down the tinfoil and shoot at one of the players who have been looking more consistently mafia along the game. I'm looking at LoRab and Cookie. And there is also my suspicion on G-Man, which might also become a vote.

Gonna call Rico a neutral read at this point.

#2022

LoRab wrote:Sorry, Made, this is not looking good for you.

No kidding! He's not even on the poll.

#2023

For the record, I don't think Big Figure forgot to send a kill in on Night 5, not if he still managed to silence/voteblock a player.

#2024

Metalmarsh89 wrote:For the record, I don't think Big Figure forgot to send a kill in on Night 5, not if he still managed to silence/voteblock a player.

That's a very good point MM. The fact that you and MP07 supposedly could not speak or vote Day 6 suggests that two silence/vote-blocking roles were (and are) still alive. That could be both Big Figure and Derf or Big Figure and some secret shenanigans. That could be a point in Made's favor.

#2025

#2026

I noticed only 4/9 players have posted in this day until now. Anyone silenced?

Ricochet, Scotty, Cookie, Russ, Made, are you there? Can you talk?

#2027

@G-Man: wtf does that mean

#2028

Yeah Im here. More traveling last night, Im on a spree haha. I was wondering the same thing, though, DDL. Who is silenced today

Im on my girlfriends computer, and its an American style keyboard but she has it set up to type swedish letters too. Which means I don't know how to type question marks. So please try to notice when I'm asking questions of people.

#2029

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:@G-Man: wtf does that mean

It's not hard to figure out. Think about it.

#2030

I can talk. I started rehearsals this afternoon for an upcoming conducting masterclass (I'll be playing the role of Orchestra Man and some fools will try to make me obey their finger ballet

). This will go on for the next days and the masterclass starts on Saturday for another six days, but I'll be here during evenings during the final rounds (if Biggy F will allow me, of course

).

Bbl shower and dinner.

#2031

Anyway, I did some reads at players posts.

LoRab keeps giving me the feeling that she's not playing the game. Almost every post he made was self-defense. Self-defense is okay, but does not help anybody except herself. Other than that, there's the G-Man tunneling, and a couple small suspicions that have stayed the same for the whole game yet she hasn't bothered to engage those players or discuss those suspicions too much. She seems more interested in discussing game mechanics, and again, defending herself.

For example, I'm aware she thinks G-Man is suspicious, but it's Day 7 and I still can't name one reason for her suspicion other than the day 1 LD thing. She agreed with a post I made but didn't say anything more than that. When promped to name her suspects, she finally said she suspected MM and Cookie, but that felt more like something forced than an actual attempt to hunt mafia. Like "hey people, look how I'm naming suspects" - <goes back to defending herself>

And that's her problem, she doesn't feel like someone who's hunting mafia. Just an spectator.

As for Cookie, she's all over the place. Her civ/mafia change with the speed of light, her votes are made for sudden, and questionable reasons and he has that aura of noobiness that goesn't go away. She seems to be trying harder the last few phases, which is good, but her attempts to try harder are still weird as fuck. And a lot of her posts feel like she's just following other people and repeating what they say. Not that following others is necessarily bad, but the way she does it feels forced sometimes. She does have an early vote for ika, which makes her less likely BF, though. I can see myself voting for her because I can't give her a pass forever, but I can easily see her being legit. But at least she feels like she's trying, and posting suspects by her own will unlike LoRab who seems like she only does it when she's forced to.

Finally, there's G-Man, who I already elaborated on and am not going to do it again so soon. To sum it up, he also seems detatched, but in a more calculated way. But he's also a pretty random guy who is difficult to read, so I'm not sure about lynching him at this point.

So I feel like voting LoRab today.

#2032

Figure it out yet Dragon?

#2033

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:The problem with your viewpoint is that its reverse can be just as plausible, in that a mafia member left solo or an LMS can feel that he'll risk detection by staying hidden, sidelining, whatnot, so he'll adopt being in front, hunting, develop a solid gameplay and making it look like his efforts have simply gone awry. That's my profile of you right now, that's all. I'm not automatically adverse to mislynchers - like, say, llama is, given how he hunted my ass and mislynched me for having a stinking vote record and always falling outside the circle of those who caught mafia - but I've said that I don't feel good about you anymore compared to other hunters who didn't bring mafia meat to supper either (even if you did, once, back on D1).

Oh, I'm equally anticipating being night killed for my efforts, as well. I'm doubtful the remaining baddies will let me join them in lylo, if it'll go that far. What you ask regarding night killing is funny, since you did kill me in Guess Who out of worries that I'll be a threat. If you ask me, MP was kept in the game due to the high potential of being lynched. That he himself started a huge case on a civ Eloh must have been even more of a delight for BF and Moloch.

And again, I'm not seeing the preposterous heat. You're questioning my votes and reads on you and I'm replying on this matter. Others, except MM, have barely chimed in. I think some have even called you slightly civ.
Okay, I exaggerated about the heat thing. My point is, my playstyle is risky, and would at least make people pay attention on me every time a civ got lynched, because I had my hand in every civ lynch in this game (a fact I'm not proud of). This is highly WIFOM-y though, so I'll stop arguing in this direction.

You have a point though, in which most players in this game haven't really suspected me. Other than you and MM, it's only soft suspicions.

Now answer me this question: assume you are Big Figure. You have to get rid of me, just like you have to everybody. There are two methods that you can emply to do that. One is the night kill, the other is a lynch. Based on how I've played this game, which one would be the option of your choice?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:
Ricochet wrote:My reads of you (DDL) worsened each time, over several days, and I wouldn't say they started from tagging you civ, only not my likely Mafia candidate.
No, but they took a quick turn for worse after Night 5.

And I think that, whoever Big Figure is, he's pretty desperate to get me lynched right now.

I really have to make an ISO on you though, because right now I only have his hunch.
Bullshit.

Nobody is "desperate" to get you lynched, or at least not showing it. Ricochet might be the closest, but I think you have created a theory here with the intent of fitting Ricochet into that theory.
I recognize I might be wrong about Ricochet being the best fit, but I can guarantee you it's the opposite of what you said. I didn't craft the theory so I could fit Ricochet in (that'd be silly). I crafted the theory first, and now I'm trying to fit someone in.

There IS one player who is desperate to get me lynched. That's a fact. The question is who.

The question is whom. Serioúsly though, bit dramatic here, right DDL! (Yes I went with exclamation points as question mark substitutes.)

I really appreciated your ISO on Ricochet, by the way, especially since I needed to reread him myself. A couple things stood out to me:

1) What you called Rico's first meaningful post actually contains a mild defense of Sloonei. That makes me feel worse about him.
2) You didn't talk about this in the ISO, since that was about Rico, but DH said you were his best guess at Moloch. Any idea why that would be, given what we now know about his role!

I feel like things are getting murkier. I felt pretty good about DDL and Rico yesterday. I'm still not getting overt baddie vibes from either, but they do look somewhat worse to me than before.

What does everyone else think about the poll yesterday! I'm going to look closer at it now. I just realized that IF a baddie were in a lynch poll that close, theyäd probably want to save thier vote to protect themselves. Although in that scenario they look even worse if they cast a deciding vote on a civ, so who knows. If they weren't one of the main candidates being discussed, they could pretty much blend in wherever, I suppose, or create chaos, for example, by creating a 3+way tie.

Linki: thank you! Someone agrees that LoRab isn't trying that hard. Although I'm a little surprised it took you that long to come around.

And I get what you're saying about Cookie, but I still don't buy her being bad. Every time I've played with a new player, they get accused of parroting others. They don't have the benefits of experience or meta to go on, and frankly, when you're getting your bearings, following others, even subconsciously, is just the easiest way to keep oriented.

G+Man, what are we supposed to be figuring out!

#2034

Oh, the picture. lol

#2035

Metalmarsh89 wrote:For the record, I don't think Big Figure forgot to send a kill in on Night 5, not if he still managed to silence/voteblock a player.

Thanks for the remiinder on this, MM. I saw no kill and was about to go all gung ho for a Made lynch. However, it seems there is something besides missed PMs though, since the silence went through. Almost looks to me like someone is doing a very underwhelming job of framing Made.

LoRab wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?
I'm not convinced Bernard wrote the list.

And, still, more suspects than possible slots.

Why would Bernard not write the list! It literally says "From Bernard" at the top. It really doesn't get any clearer than that.

#2036

Russtifinko wrote:What does everyone else think about the poll yesterday! I'm going to look closer at it now. I just realized that IF a baddie were in a lynch poll that close, theyäd probably want to save thier vote to protect themselves. Although in that scenario they look even worse if they cast a deciding vote on a civ, so who knows. If they weren't one of the main candidates being discussed, they could pretty much blend in wherever, I suppose, or create chaos, for example, by creating a 3+way tie.

Linki: thank you! Someone agrees that LoRab isn't trying that hard. Although I'm a little surprised it took you that long to come around.

And I get what you're saying about Cookie, but I still don't buy her being bad. Every time I've played with a new player, they get accused of parroting others. They don't have the benefits of experience or meta to go on, and frankly, when you're getting your bearings, following others, even subconsciously, is just the easiest way to keep oriented.

G+Man, what are we supposed to be figuring out!

The poll yesterday was disappointing to me. I can see why Made wouldn't vote but it sucks that two other people missed it as well. It's tough to read late polls like that when 30% of the voters miss. It would be interesting to know who was definitely silenced and on which days. Day 6 was the first time I think I recall seeing two players silenced at the same time. We know MP was Civilian, so he was almost certainly silenced. It's too risky a gambit for a civ who is under fire and flailing to fake being silenced. But that leaves MM as a possible silence faker. In general terms, Big Figure could have silenced MP07 and then pretended to be silenced, making us think Derf is still around or some secret shenanigans are at work. That's a bold assumption that could be made only by paying attention to silencing patterns and feeling very good about the civvie silencer being dead already or else someone would be bringing hell down upon someone faking it. But this all boils down to how you feel about MM.

Dragon asked me what the picture I posted meant. I thought it was obvious but apparently not.

#2037

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?

DDL, it worries me that you care, frankly. I mean, I know some people just like to figure out all the roles. But baddies have a lot more to gain from figuring out who Bernard is than we do.

As far as votes from yesterday, I still can't figure out a civ reasoning behind G+Man's vote. He knew he was probably the last vote, with 2 silences and Tiny being inactive. He clearly enjoyed the power position he was in, but basically didnät base his vote on his feelings on the players at all, the way I read it.

G-Man wrote:Oh this scenario is almost too delicious to be true. Decisions decisions.

G-Man wrote:I don't feel the need to protect either of the two players with 2 votes.

G-Man wrote:But I don't feel the need to vote for them either.

It's a chaos vote, plain and simple, and on D6 that doesn't sit right with me. By this point, civs need to be having reads and ACTING ON THEM.

G+Man has probably moved up to my #2 lynch candidate based on that, although for me LoRab is a clear #1.

Sorry, I know I've been a bit more scattered today, suspicion+wise. But weäve had two civ lynches in a row that frankly were pretty terrible, and most people have played a part in that. So I feel less trusting today than previously.

Linki: I got the picture thing.

G+Man, what!!! You clearly knew when you were posting that you were the last vote to come in; why are you now acting like you were praying for someone to swoop in a get the correct person last minute when you made it a 3+way tie!! We had discussed extensively that MP and MM were out, and it was pretty clear Tiny wasn't coming back. The situation wasn't disappointing, you loved it!

I'd have to go back and look, but I'm positive we've had multiple players silenced before. Does anyone know whether it has happened every day! And G+Man, are you saying you're convinced MM is mafia! Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.

Holy shit, dude, you are rocketing up my list today.

#2038

I was about to go haead and vote LoRab, but I'm gonna hold off and give some consideration to G+Man as well.

Hey, I found the ? now! Still no dash, though

#2039

Russtifinko wrote:The question is whom. Serioúsly though, bit dramatic here, right DDL! (Yes I went with exclamation points as question mark substitutes.)

I really appreciated your ISO on Ricochet, by the way, especially since I needed to reread him myself. A couple things stood out to me:

1) What you called Rico's first meaningful post actually contains a mild defense of Sloonei. That makes me feel worse about him.
2) You didn't talk about this in the ISO, since that was about Rico, but DH said you were his best guess at Moloch. Any idea why that would be, given what we now know about his role!

I feel like things are getting murkier. I felt pretty good about DDL and Rico yesterday. I'm still not getting overt baddie vibes from either, but they do look somewhat worse to me than before.

What does everyone else think about the poll yesterday! I'm going to look closer at it now. I just realized that IF a baddie were in a lynch poll that close, theyäd probably want to save thier vote to protect themselves. Although in that scenario they look even worse if they cast a deciding vote on a civ, so who knows. If they weren't one of the main candidates being discussed, they could pretty much blend in wherever, I suppose, or create chaos, for example, by creating a 3+way tie.

Linki: thank you! Someone agrees that LoRab isn't trying that hard. Although I'm a little surprised it took you that long to come around.

And I get what you're saying about Cookie, but I still don't buy her being bad. Every time I've played with a new player, they get accused of parroting others. They don't have the benefits of experience or meta to go on, and frankly, when you're getting your bearings, following others, even subconsciously, is just the easiest way to keep oriented.

G+Man, what are we supposed to be figuring out!

About the DH thing, I guess DH perceived my game as how an independent player would act. He didn't think I was an inmate because of my successful vote on Sloonei, but thought I was intentionally being anti-civ in some way. He said I was either Moloch or a Watchman, which would fit with that theory, since Watchmen can also have selfish intentions in this game. I don't think he used any ability on me to figure that out though, because otherwise he'd have just called me Moloch, instead of putting me as a likely Watchman.

I'd already made a big post suspecting LoRab, on day 4 iirc, and my view didn't change much since then.

I haven't tried to look at day 6 votes yet. I'll see if I can spot something.

#2040

@Russ: on the Bernard thing, I care because I want to remove suspects from my list. We are approaching the end game and it's a good thing if we can nail the final mafia by a proccess of elimination.

#2041

Also, the Ricochet thing you pointed out feels more to me like a mild suspicion than a mild defense, tbh. Though both could be either civ or bad signs, since they're not hard to make.

#2042

Metalmarsh89 wrote:For the record, I don't think Big Figure forgot to send a kill in on Night 5, not if he still managed to silence/voteblock a player.

Assuming you both were actually silenced.

#2043

What is link I and wifom?

#2044

linki: when you click the submit button and new posts show up, so you add a response to them before clicking submit again.

wifom: "wine in front of me". Basically any situation where you try to read a person's intentions by trying to think what would they do, except that they might as well do the opposite just to trick you. Which means it's impossible to get a definite read on the person based on that situation. More explanations here:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM

#2045

I don't get the picture yet. I dumb.

#2046

Sorry for typos, I'm on my phone.

Anyway, I mentioned earlier that I though LoRab's vote was curious because I felt he didn't want to be responsible for lynching a civ so he voted to make it a 3 way tie.

For this reason and others I think my vote will go to LoRab (my phone keep autocorrecting it to Logan) but I am going to wait until I get home at around 7:30 to thoroughly read the thread and vote.

#2047

Thanks, DDL. Some good points. Do you have to quote where DH says you might be a Watchman as well? It would make me feel better. I'd get it myself, but I really need to get some errands done. I mafia'ed way too long this morning already.

LinkiÖ Cookie, linki is short for linkitis. Itäs what happens when someone has posted since when you started writing your post. The forum, instead of posting your message immediately, pulls up the recent posts, and people tend to tack responses to those on the bottom of their posts and put the word linki before it

WIFOM stands for Wine In Front Of Me. Itäs from the Princess Bride. Video anyone, please? Basically it's when you try too hard to think what a baddie would do until you think yourself in circles and think everything is a possibility. I find Occam's Razor to be the best WIFOM cure, although it's not foolproof

Double LinkiÖ Ninja'd. Well played.

LinkiÖ 3x: Cookie, LoRab didn't do that, G+Man did.

#2048

Crap. And by LinkiÖ I mean Linki:

#2049

Dragon D. Luffy wrote:linki: when you click the submit button and new posts show up, so you add a response to them before clicking submit again.

wifom: "wine in front of me". Basically any situation where you try to read a person's intentions by trying to think what would they do, except that they might as well do the opposite just to trick you. Which means it's impossible to get a definite read on the person based on that situation. More explanations here:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=WIFOM

ohh ok thanks!!

#2050

Russtifinko wrote:
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Do you think Bernard would suspect himself?
DDL, it worries me that you care, frankly. I mean, I know some people just like to figure out all the roles. But baddies have a lot more to gain from figuring out who Bernard is than we do.

As far as votes from yesterday, I still can't figure out a civ reasoning behind G+Man's vote. He knew he was probably the last vote, with 2 silences and Tiny being inactive. He clearly enjoyed the power position he was in, but basically didnät base his vote on his feelings on the players at all, the way I read it.

G-Man wrote:Oh this scenario is almost too delicious to be true. Decisions decisions.

G-Man wrote:I don't feel the need to protect either of the two players with 2 votes.

G-Man wrote:But I don't feel the need to vote for them either.
It's a chaos vote, plain and simple, and on D6 that doesn't sit right with me. By this point, civs need to be having reads and ACTING ON THEM.

G+Man has probably moved up to my #2 lynch candidate based on that, although for me LoRab is a clear #1.

Sorry, I know I've been a bit more scattered today, suspicion+wise. But weäve had two civ lynches in a row that frankly were pretty terrible, and most people have played a part in that. So I feel less trusting today than previously.

Linki: I got the picture thing.

G+Man, what!!! You clearly knew when you were posting that you were the last vote to come in; why are you now acting like you were praying for someone to swoop in a get the correct person last minute when you made it a 3+way tie!! We had discussed extensively that MP and MM were out, and it was pretty clear Tiny wasn't coming back. The situation wasn't disappointing, you loved it!

I'd have to go back and look, but I'm positive we've had multiple players silenced before. Does anyone know whether it has happened every day! And G+Man, are you saying you're convinced MM is mafia! Because that's what it sounds like you're saying.

Holy shit, dude, you are rocketing up my list today.

Holy heck, dude. Calm down. Or are those exclamation points supposed to be question marks?

Yes, I intentionally voted for MP07 to cause a three-way tie. I was hoping MP07 would get taken out and he was. I was too caught up in my grand theory of MP07's master evil plot to vote any other way. I suspected him far more than either LoRab or Cookie, so I did at least vote for who I was most suspicious of.

While I loved having the power to force MP07 into a tie, there's nothing wrong with me calling the poll results disappointing after the fact. I was wrong about MP07 and there's a chance that Big Figure wasn't among the votes.

No, I'm not saying I am convinced that MM is mafia. What I'm saying is that, if you're going to run with the theory that Big Figure was faking being silenced, you have to assume it was MM. I'm not ready to make that assumption. Heck, MM could be a civvie and faked being silenced. It's worth considering that Big Figure could have kept notes on how many silencings were happening in case the opportunity arose to fake it but it's also a theory that has a few too many variables to run with this late in the game. I'm just throwing out food for thought.

Anyone want to actually look at the votes from yesterday in depth?

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

Full Games	Civilian: Mafia: Independent:
Speed Games	Civilian: Fiddler on the Roof Mafia:
Heists	Civilian: MVP: RED vs BLUE
Burglaries	Independent: The Theme Is Literally a Burglary
Special Games	Civilian: Independent:

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

2014 Sockys
2015 Sockys
Miscellaneous

Who deserves justice?