Recruitment Mafia IV: Dawn of the Clans (End Game)

[LoRab]

I definitely get what you're saying. We're just thinking through the possibilities with a different conclusion. I also am assuming that the hosts will make it virtually impossible for us to avoid positions for very long. They want all of their roles used. And I'd rather get it out of the way on day 2, rather than day 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.

I have no idea what inspired the Judge to turn it into a lottery yesterday,

I have to wonder if the judge has been recruited, tbh.

[Tangrowth]

I will try to respond to every post made later but to better explain my vote since I was so low on time, I basically had my phd advisor ask me so where is this assignment? And I flipped out since I thought I had a few more days to complete it and wasn't finished so I literally only had a few seconds to cast votes here and in angry birds and I knew I had to get him that assignment ASAP

I went with unfurl based on my previous posts. I am curious what others have said about my thoughts of her but I'm far from current so I'll talk more about it later. I didn't even feel I had time to look at the list of low posters and cast a vote that way, I knew unfurl had made like 15 posts without seeming intent on doing any hunting or wanting to talk about anything so I knew my vote was weak but I had to cast it so I asked myself who I would vote for and immediately thought of unfurl based on those thoughts I already expressed.

I'm on phone so sorry for any typos I missed

Be back later properly even if it's not until tomorrow night.

[LoRab]

Which, earlier statement about Judge having nefarious purposes (I like the word nefarious these days), makes this post ping my suspiciometer.

It was made at 6:06. Just 20 minutes after day was ended prematurely. Trying to sound innocent and remove oneself from the idea by encouraging people to vote?

Less than 2.5 hours remain and a ton of votes are still off the board. Y'all get in here and help us kill someone.

Also, who is the "us" of whom you are speaking?

[Dom]

Ah, I see Dom was needling in on me. Fair enough, it was a little contradictory. Here's the longer explanation now that I'm not as rushed.

Because I don't see the use in complete random, my randomization was not so much random on the scale of the entire list of players, but a list of players that had more content-filled posts. Unlike the Day 0/1's from previous games, I didn't feel like looking at MIAs for the first lynch. It was theorized by numerous people throughout the day who had a better chance to recruit and who would be recruited. I don't think a recruiter would pick someone with a very low post count. Maybe someone with a slightly low count to remain hidden, sure. But someone like, say, DFaraday I don't see as Recruiter or Recruitee.

I looked at the big talkers that had recruiting strategies- Epi and Golden and their spat didn't stand out to me as recruiters/recruitees. MP, SVS, JJJ, birdwithteeth, Rico, etc were in the mix. But I had no real inclination between those, though I figured one of them maybe had some sort of overarching, suspicious recruiting method. SVS stood out to me early on for her recruiting strategy of someone that was smarter than her, works well as a team player and could swim under the radar. She seemed to really know what she was talking about, and that would scare me if she were the recruiter. But I really could have voted any of them. So I guess it was random in the sense that I just picked one that didn't seem to be causing too much of a ruckus or on anyone's radar. In the end, it's a day 1 vote.

Also I don't have any idea what you're talking about with me "clearly in BTSC". I think you've got that aluminum foil hat on a little too tight. When I say "power" of course I don't mean abilities. I'm stupid, but not that stupid. (Though I did watch the rain with my head tilted up and my mouth open as a child.)
I guess power wasnt the best word choice in hindsight, but I was rushing off to work. Think of it more as "regard" or "esteem".

"Scotty assumed everyone is vanilla like in previous game"
wtf? When did I say that? Oh, I didn't. Please don't put words in my mouth, Dom. I'm only a child at heart, not by intelligence or temperament.

It's true that I'm not used to this type of game, but I'm learning as I go.

Now I sleep. Good night, and most likely see you all for day 2 tomorrow when I get off work at 11p est

Scotty, I still don't see why you didn't post this when you voted. You misled, and this feels like a justification after the fact. My is on you.

Additionally, I interpreted your comment "power" to mean abilities within the game. If you meant differently, then my conspiracy theory (as you deem it) doesn't work.

I like position 3. Yay no death I guess, but I never reAlly like when the only tool the civvies have is squandered.

We have no way of knowing that power would end up on a civilian team.

[Ricochet]

I will try to respond to every post made later

Surely not every post made.

Good luck with the rest. If my supervisor would phone me and say "you know how we're supposed to meet in September for the presentation? How 'bout you come on Monday" I would be dead meat.

[Marmot]

I like position 3. Yay no death I guess, but I never reAlly like when the only tool the civvies have is squandered.

We have no way of knowing that power would end up on a civilian team.

I think he was talking about the lynch in general as a tool, not any of the players' powers.

[Dom]

I will try to respond to every post made later but to better explain my vote since I was so low on time, I basically had my phd advisor ask me so where is this assignment? And I flipped out since I thought I had a few more days to complete it and wasn't finished so I literally only had a few seconds to cast votes here and in angry birds and I knew I had to get him that assignment ASAP

I went with unfurl based on my previous posts. I am curious what others have said about my thoughts of her but I'm far from current so I'll talk more about it later. I didn't even feel I had time to look at the list of low posters and cast a vote that way, I knew unfurl had made like 15 posts without seeming intent on doing any hunting or wanting to talk about anything so I knew my vote was weak but I had to cast it so I asked myself who I would vote for and immediately thought of unfurl based on those thoughts I already expressed.

I'm on phone so sorry for any typos I missed

Be back later properly even if it's not until tomorrow night.

Please don't respond to every single post.

[nutella]

Voting position 5.

[Scotty]

Ah, I see Dom was needling in on me. Fair enough, it was a little contradictory. Here's the longer explanation now that I'm not as rushed.

Because I don't see the use in complete random, my randomization was not so much random on the scale of the entire list of players, but a list of players that had more content-filled posts. Unlike the Day 0/1's from previous games, I didn't feel like looking at MIAs for the first lynch. It was theorized by numerous people throughout the day who had a better chance to recruit and who would be recruited. I don't think a recruiter would pick someone with a very low post count. Maybe someone with a slightly low count to remain hidden, sure. But someone like, say, DFaraday I don't see as Recruiter or Recruitee.

I looked at the big talkers that had recruiting strategies- Epi and Golden and their spat didn't stand out to me as recruiters/recruitees. MP, SVS, JJJ, birdwithteeth, Rico, etc were in the mix. But I had no real inclination between those, though I figured one of them maybe had some sort of overarching, suspicious recruiting method. SVS stood out to me early on for her recruiting strategy of someone that was smarter than her, works well as a team player and could swim under the radar. She seemed to really know what she was talking about, and that would scare me if she were the recruiter. But I really could have voted any of them. So I guess it was random in the sense that I just picked one that didn't seem to be causing too much of a ruckus or on anyone's radar. In the end, it's a day 1 vote.

Also I don't have any idea what you're talking about with me "clearly in BTSC". I think you've got that aluminum foil hat on a little too tight. When I say "power" of course I don't mean abilities. I'm stupid, but not that stupid. (Though I did watch the rain with my head tilted up and my mouth open as a child.)
I guess power wasnt the best word choice in hindsight, but I was rushing off to work. Think of it more as "regard" or "esteem".

"Scotty assumed everyone is vanilla like in previous game"
wtf? When did I say that? Oh, I didn't. Please don't put words in my mouth, Dom. I'm only a child at heart, not by intelligence or temperament.

It's true that I'm not used to this type of game, but I'm learning as I go.

Now I sleep. Good night, and most likely see you all for day 2 tomorrow when I get off work at 11p est

Scotty, I still don't see why you didn't post this when you voted. You misled, and this feels like a justification after the fact. My is on you. I just stated that I was rushed for time. So yes, this was a justification after the fact, since I didn't feel I could focus my thoughts into one post in 5 minutes.

Additionally, I interpreted your comment "power" to mean abilities within the game. If you meant differently, then my conspiracy theory (as you deem it) doesn't work. whoop, there it is.

Also I forgot to mention that I voted position 3 first because I did the same as day 0. Because I like position 3.
K, back to work. Be back in probably 10 hours.

[Canucklehead]

Heyhey.
Sorry I was a dickbird and missed the vote. I would have voted for Scotty for his seemingly nonsensical SVS contradictions.

I'm not going to be super available until Tuesday, but I am staying caught up on reading, and will do my bestest to make meaningful contributions (and by "meaningful" I mean "only-margianlly-meaningful-because-I'm-having=a-hard-time-getting-my-feet-under-me-in-this-game")

[Typhoony]

I voted Pos 5.

[reywaS]

deuces

[Golden]

My thoughts on your theory

1) BR and LC needed to figure out the vote situation, so I don't think it likely that the lynch was simply stopped (unless there is another reason for them to need to do the count back).

2) I'm not so quick to discount the Lord of Thunder. He could theoretically given +3 votes to anyone and the person he gave them to could be Ubzargan/jilted lover. This would still require LC/BR to do a countback. That means that there is a 50% chance that literally any player could have been leading the vote.

3) But there is a 50% chance thunder said minus three.

I guess it's possible, lol, I did kinda forget added votes can include everyone else, but the "picking" in Thunder's role sounded like there would be need for something for him to pick from. Maybe this needs clarification? I didn't really discard him, however, what I said still applies: if anyone actually had more than 1 vote (thanks to him), that player's our survivor, but we can't tell and only Thunder can hint at that; if everyone was tied at 1, including players added thanks to him, we can't tell who survived; if anyone from the tie had his vote removed thanks to him, we can't tell who among the others is the survivor (and neither can him).

I don't get anything about the lynch stopping re: #1, did I say that or was it an additional thought?

It was an additional thought. If the lynch was simply stopped, why would LC and BR need to count back to figure out the vote situation when the day ended?

[Golden]

Also, I'm 4 glad BWT survived. His comment when he thought he was lynched seemed sincere to me (and just a little sad).

I would agree, but what about his prior comment that sounded like "good luck getting a majority to lynch me" (which then totally happened lol, at least in the unaltered universe)?

Yeah, he said a few things like that which caused me to vote for him, but in that moment the reaction felt sincere to me.

[Golden]

I will try to respond to every post made later

Surely not every post made.

Only MP would undertake to respond to every post made.

[G-Man]

Okay, my truncated, general responses to things happening since i voted:

-BWT needs to read a little more thoroughly. The list of 8 I posted were the 8 players with the fewest posts out of the players who I had no read on whatsoever, not necessarily the actual the bottom 8. I'm surprised only a few people took notice of his error.

-I was intrigued by how disparate the reasons were for voting BWT. It was far from a cohesive lynch train. I was also intrigued by how some thought his mistake on the 8 was shifty rather than lazy.

-I had notes worked up on the roles Rico may have missed but you guys covered that well already.


Now to look at the positions so I can vote for that...

[Marmot]

I will try to respond to every post made later

Surely not every post made.

Only MP would undertake to respond to every post made.

[G-Man]

Here's what Rico had to say, nicely quantified:

OK, here's my silly breakdown of the positions

Abilities with positive effects on a player or the field
Abilities that only serve the carrier's interest or gain
Abilities with negative effects on a player or the field
Abilities with ambivalent effects, that will probably depend on the alignment of the carrier

I am aware this is far from perfect, because recruitement might ultimately influence itself the positive or negative charge of most abilities. A protection can be generally positive, but switch to serving the player's or team's interest (if, for instance, the player gets recruited in a baddie camp). Some abilities like the kills or the ones that sound nasty have been unconditionally slotted into negative, despite their own nuances depending on alignment (like civ kills). The "ambivalent" section is for abilities I couldn't grasp or couldn't project into any of the three main slots (Stuff like "Picks Player". Ok, what am I supposed to believe will happen to the picked player or how can I tell if the pick is for goood or bad?)

So, to the best of my understanding and probably with a lot of mistakes in counting/assessing them:

Position 1	10	10	10	3
Position 2	7	12	10	3
Position 3	5	11	14	3 (+1 Unknown)
Position 4	4	14	11	3 (+1 Unknown)
Position 5	7	13	10	3

(wow, those are some weak ass color contrasts, but I'm not redoing the entire scheme code)

So overall positions 3 and 4 seems the most unpleasant, with 3 potentially creating the most amount of nasty. But of course, I haven't nuanced this breakdown at all, as in weighing which abilities are more pos/neg than others; so for instance, this doesn't really make the other positions look any better, considering they have stuff like Cremation, Mind Control, Hunger, Parasite, Immolation etc.

My conclusion is that, indeed, there is no safe choosing in this matter and we'll have to go through most of these positions anyway. It's clear that the Hosts have made this pretty balanced and it's more like a crazy mix, as if we jump from one entire game setup to another each Day (wait, this isn't Inception... ), each with its virtues and nightmares, so we'll just have to navigate and suffer through them. However, my impulse right now is not to get rid of the worst-looking, because I think the amount of nasty effects and chaos would be different on D1 (with most of us unrecruited yet/unaligned) rather than later, when we have a better chance to look for patterns and such.

But this is overanalyzing, so tl;dr version is: right I feel like going for 1 or 2, out of which I think I prefer 1, even though it has cremation and mind control, because I'm not in the mood for Hunger and shit like that from Day freaking 1 already.

Here's what I had to say, with a vague and barely explained methodology:

Alright, so I went through each role's positions and did my best to determine which position for each role was the most beneficial to the civvies. Here's what I came up with:

Position 1 = 7
Position 2 = 15
Position 3 = 9
Position 4 = 6
Position 5 = 10

Even though there's some scary stuff in Position 2, it looks to me like that bad stuff is countered by some strong potential civvie stuff. The numbers don't equal the number of roles because some roles are equally bad or good across all their positions.

Thoughts?

I guess mine also comes from the standpoint of which roles cause the least harm to civvies. I'll have to go back and see if my initial calculations still stand.

[G-Man]

oh and those assessments were before those two other powers were added. There's a wrinkle to consider. Back in a few.

[Marmot]

oh and those assessments were before those two other powers were added. There's a wrinkle to consider. Back in a few.

Here's a new wrinkle for you. There were four new roles added.

[G-Man]

oh and those assessments were before those two other powers were added. There's a wrinkle to consider. Back in a few.

Here's a new wrinkle for you. There were four new roles added.

Wrinkle unwrinkled: I made my list after the first two were added. So :P

[Ricochet]

I think I also did, but I don't remember.

I'd say both the Avenger is designed pretty neutral on the good/bad for the field scale - he can deflect, take revenge or get empowered by certain factors, which mainly serve his efforts and chances - whilst The Gambler is slightly on the negative side, because of all the manipulation, but also does it at his own risk.

[Ricochet]

that both should have been edited out, I started by saying both seem neutral, then downrated Gambler to a negative

[Draconus]

Posting the poll tally would be good, but if voting will stay changeable, it won't be a fully accurate reflection of how votes evolved, especially if things get manipulated (granted, there won't be another early day end until we return to position 1).

I'm gonna double-check MM's list in a bit.

Please do. I'm confident in my checks through everyone's posts (those I needed to check), but the results weren't what I expected. There was so much chatter about BWT, I thought he would have had the most votes, not unfurl.

One thing I noticed when following along was how long it took for the remainder of the bet votes to pile on. I'm not surprised at all that mine was the only one to go through if the day ended at 5: something.

[G-Man]

Boy, there's some frightful stuff in both 3 and 5. I initially said Position 2 looked very positive for civvies but that's only from the view of civvies landing those powers. This game is like the opposite of the Star Trek movies- here the odd-numbered choices are the way to go (though I seriously enjoyed ST3: The Search for Spock and ST5 could make for a great film if there wasn't so much TV-grade suck in it). Between Position 3 and 5, coin flip says 5.

[S~V~S]

I think 4 is the scariest.

[G-Man]

I think 4 is the scariest.

I agree but the Windscout's Position 5 / Team Seemer ability is really going to suck for us they get recruited to a baddie team. It's going to be a bother regardless. I get the feeling our spreadsheets are going to be so wrong when the hosts reveal the player/role list at endgame.

[Ricochet]

Posting the poll tally would be good, but if voting will stay changeable, it won't be a fully accurate reflection of how votes evolved, especially if things get manipulated (granted, there won't be another early day end until we return to position 1).

I'm gonna double-check MM's list in a bit.

Please do. I'm confident in my checks through everyone's posts (those I needed to check), but the results weren't what I expected. There was so much chatter about BWT, I thought he would have had the most votes, not unfurl.

One thing I noticed when following along was how long it took for the remainder of the bet votes to pile on. I'm not surprised at all that mine was the only one to go through if the day ended at 5: something.

What do you mean by "bet votes" and what do you mean by your being the "only one to go through"?

[Ricochet]

Boy, there's some frightful stuff in both 3 and 5. I initially said Position 2 looked very positive for civvies but that's only from the view of civvies landing those powers. This game is like the opposite of the Star Trek movies- here the odd-numbered choices are the way to go (though I seriously enjoyed ST3: The Search for Spock and ST5 could make for a great film if there wasn't so much TV-grade suck in it). Between Position 3 and 5, coin flip says 5.

I like ST1 more than ST2.

[S~V~S]

Posting the poll tally would be good, but if voting will stay changeable, it won't be a fully accurate reflection of how votes evolved, especially if things get manipulated (granted, there won't be another early day end until we return to position 1).

I'm gonna double-check MM's list in a bit.

Please do. I'm confident in my checks through everyone's posts (those I needed to check), but the results weren't what I expected. There was so much chatter about BWT, I thought he would have had the most votes, not unfurl.

One thing I noticed when following along was how long it took for the remainder of the bet votes to pile on. I'm not surprised at all that mine was the only one to go through if the day ended at 5: something.

What do you mean by "bet votes" and what do you mean by your being the "only one to go through"?

My guess is that "bet" means "bwt" (w & e next to each other, and autocorrect for the lose) which was how I read it. The rest of it, I have no clue.

[Ricochet]

Makes sense, in that case.

[Dom]

Voted 5.

[Tranq]

yeah 5

[Ricochet]

aww but da dragon

[aapje]

aww but da dragon

You've convinced me

[Ricochet]

lol

[Draconus]

So... Still haven't caught up properly. I will... but I want to get this all of this current PhD work done first. I promise you will see an MP-level catch up post but it probably won't be today either, probably tomorrow. Depends on how productive I am.

I'll vote position 4.

Oh dear God, now I have this to look forward to! jk bud. Hope all is going well for you.

[DFaraday]

Voted 5 because it seems a bit less dangerous than the others.

[Draconus]

Posting the poll tally would be good, but if voting will stay changeable, it won't be a fully accurate reflection of how votes evolved, especially if things get manipulated (granted, there won't be another early day end until we return to position 1).

I'm gonna double-check MM's list in a bit.

Please do. I'm confident in my checks through everyone's posts (those I needed to check), but the results weren't what I expected. There was so much chatter about BWT, I thought he would have had the most votes, not unfurl.

One thing I noticed when following along was how long it took for the remainder of the bet votes to pile on. I'm not surprised at all that mine was the only one to go through if the day ended at 5: something.

What do you mean by "bet votes" and what do you mean by your being the "only one to go through"?

My guess is that "bet" means "bwt" (w & e next to each other, and autocorrect for the lose) which was how I read it. The rest of it, I have no clue.

BWT is correct. Phone autocorrect is so irritating when typing in shorthand. For the rest: at the end of the shortened day BWT only had 1 vote on him that I saw. And that was mine. That was all I meant.

[DharmaHelper]

Does anyone here speak orc

[S~V~S]

my bird does

[Draconus]

aww but da dragon

I have an approaching unhealthy love of dragons
AnywhoAnywho, Position 5 is looking nice and shiny to me.

[reywaS]

I took Orcish at the community college.

[Marmot]

I took Orcish at the community college.

Do you have an Orcish keyboard?

[Black Rock]

About 20 more minutes to get your powers in.

[birdwithteeth11]

[Marmot]

[birdwithteeth11]

[DrWilgy]

[Marmot]