Battlestar Galactica Mafia - GAME OVER

#8301

Aaron Doral is either DrumBeats or SokothQultuq if Wilgy is indeed Leoben as many of us think. We know Wilgy is a Toaster since his lynch was bypassed after he claimed on Day 5 so he has to be one of the two. All thread discussion of him points to Leoben, so Drum or Sokoth are Doral on my spreadsheet.

I have OA down as Caprica Six. Given her hard defense of Silverwolf, I had them pegged as BTSC partners since Day 5. Given Silverwolf's all-but-certain civvie status, I never felt all the way suspicious of OA because of what looked like a very obvious link between the two.

What are your thoughts on DrumBeats and Sokoth?

#8302

Nerolunar wrote:Putting a revealed Cavil in the brig is the easiest thing to do. Weird civ cred you are giving me, G-man.

Speaking of the brig, do I just go with Cavil yet again? I'm waiting a bit to do it to avoid confusion, so speak up if you have thoughts regarding this.

#8303

G-Man wrote:Aaron Doral is either DrumBeats or SokothQultuq if Wilgy is indeed Leoben as many of us think. We know Wilgy is a Toaster since his lynch was bypassed after he claimed on Day 5 so he has to be one of the two. All thread discussion of him points to Leoben, so Drum or Sokoth are Doral on my spreadsheet.

I have OA down as Caprica Six. Given her hard defense of Silverwolf, I had them pegged as BTSC partners since Day 5. Given Silverwolf's all-but-certain civvie status, I never felt all the way suspicious of OA because of what looked like a very obvious link between the two.

What are your thoughts on DrumBeats and Sokoth?

Both smell civ or indie to me.

#8304

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The following question is for ObscureAllure and only ObscureAllure:

Do you believe Cavil can be lynched?

Absofriiginlutely. It might be an if-then scenario (like she might have to be the last one of her group lynched) but she absolutely can be lynched. I think that scenario is probably the most likely, but I think we should test it now just in case and if we don't test it now we are dumb. Put GMan, Wigly, or Matt as second just in case.

#8305

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Last night I was demanding immediate reads on Matt, because I wanted to see who'd try to take advantage of him.

I think there is zero reason for him to behave as he did with regards to the Daisy lynch when it was already pretty much sealed if he really had any nasty motivation to protect her. I think he looked clearly like a townie who had what he thought was a good reason to disagree with public sentiment, and he voiced that without concern for the consequences even when it wasn't at all likely to change the lynch result.

ObscureAllure's handling is the worst IMO:

ObscureAllure wrote:JJJ - Matt's Most likely bad. I've waffled on him because I thought maybe he was offered a recruitment and turned it down based on some of the things he's said... but he just keeps saying crap that makes me think he's bad.
Yellow: This is the most specific reason ever to read someone as town -- not only was he offered recruitment, but he rejected it.

Orange: Like what? What "crap"? Why does it make you think he's bad?

Matt wrote:Welp, like I said off to read some Batman...

Crazy Theory # 1261

Every singe person we lynch comes up "Cavil aligned" until we lynch John Cavil, regardless of their affiliation. Now I'm just coming up with weird stuff, but I was amazed at what an awesome job town has done taking out two baddies in a row. Hrm.

Anyway for real, I'm not going to waste time defending myself. I think most would agree it's more believable that I just suck because if I were bad (here comes...WIFOM!) I just simply wouldn't be defending Daisy like I did. Just...ugh no.

Regardless I really don't care if ya'll hang me, wasted day, keep on truckin' !
Now I DEF think he's bad! Seriously? >.<

Okay, WHY? What is the baddie motive for Matt to promote this theory, which he basically admitted wasn't even viable himself.[/quote]

Maybe there's a really good reason that I've been asking him about recruitment for like days and days and DAYSSSSSSSSSS and I keep referencing something behind the scenes with him and why on earth would I call him out for that if I were bad?? I've been trying to get y'all to catch on to something for EVER and y'all just like DERP. It's very frustrating and part of the reason I have pretty much just gone IDGAF on this game. I can't be any more obvious with out getting in trouble and still not one single freaking person who was supposed to catch on has caught on. (Although ironically it looked like both SVS and Dex might have caught on, but understand oh why when they knew the back side.) I can't win for losing with you people.

#8306

Putting Cavil in the brig now.

#8307

Nerolunar wrote:Putting Cavil in the brig now.

Thanks!

#8308

Polo wrote:
I think OA made it pretty clear that she's Caprica Six and I believe Wilgy is Leoben Conoy. Who is Aaron Doral? Is it you?

I think YOU made this excedingly clear that it's who you think I am. I claim no one and nothing. A girl has no name. I did NOT role claim. Please don't hurt me golden I didn't do it kill that one

#8309

I don't think Cavil should go in the brig if we are to lynch her today. We still might figure something out from her posts. If you need someone I'll volunteer but I think as good of a player as she is, she's not infallible and there's still something to learn.

#8310

ObscureAllure wrote:I don't think Cavil should go in the brig if we are to lynch her today. We still might figure something out from her posts. If you need someone I'll volunteer but I think as good of a player as she is, she's not infallible and there's still something to learn.

Just like Spacedaisy made us "figure something" by simply voting herself and being done with it, right? You're assuming Cavil is supposed to entertain us with posts, but he is free to do so only if he finds motive and, when that happens, most certainly his posts will be crafted to not actually reveal anything helpful.

I still caution the idea of lynching Cavil, if there are teammates left in the game - It would make it easy for them to blend under the "lynch Cavil" umbrella - and as long as suspicious players (at least from my POV) say "let's go for it", rather than pointing at connections remaining. "If we don't test it now we are dumb"? Hmpf.

#8311

ObscureAllure wrote:I don't think Cavil should go in the brig if we are to lynch her today. We still might figure something out from her posts. If you need someone I'll volunteer but I think as good of a player as she is, she's not infallible and there's still something to learn.

I really doubt that is going to happen. Cavil is an excellent player and will only distract. Nothing will be said without purpose.

Sorry I was lame, I was here reading earlier and then I wasn't I had a post written about missing the vote last night but I forgot to post it.

#8312

lynching cavil wouldn't make anyone look better in my mind. Unless Cavil can't be lynched and we attempt to lynch them then I'd eye those who tried to push the wagon away from Dex onto Cavil.

#8313

sig wrote:lynching cavil wouldn't make anyone look better in my mind. Unless Cavil can't be lynched and we attempt to lynch them then I'd eye those who tried to push the wagon away from Dex onto Cavil.

Think it's just Matt and Beats, of those four.

#8314

ObscureAllure wrote:Maybe there's a really good reason that I've been asking him about recruitment for like days and days and DAYSSSSSSSSSS and I keep referencing something behind the scenes with him and why on earth would I call him out for that if I were bad?? I've been trying to get y'all to catch on to something for EVER and y'all just like DERP. It's very frustrating and part of the reason I have pretty much just gone IDGAF on this game. I can't be any more obvious with out getting in trouble and still not one single freaking person who was supposed to catch on has caught on. (Although ironically it looked like both SVS and Dex might have caught on, but understand oh why when they knew the back side.) I can't win for losing with you people.

If you're talking about DrWilgy again, then spare me this crap. I've promoted his lynch for days and days.

If you're not going to keep trying and instead favor an "IDGAF" mindset, then the consequences are your own fault.

For what it's worth, I like your answer to my question about Cavil. You were very clear in your assessment of the Cavil "slip" WIFOM up there, and I wanted to see if you'd be consistent with the "Cavil isn't lynchable" WIFOM. Good look.

#8315

Ricochet wrote:I still caution the idea of lynching Cavil, if there are teammates left in the game - It would make it easy for them to blend under the "lynch Cavil" umbrella - and as long as suspicious players (at least from my POV) say "let's go for it", rather than pointing at connections remaining. "If we don't test it now we are dumb"? Hmpf.

How are we ever going to know when all of the Cavil team mates are gone? It's a shot in the dark, and the later in the game we take the shot the more severe the potential consequences.

#8316

Ricochet wrote:
ObscureAllure wrote:I don't think Cavil should go in the brig if we are to lynch her today. We still might figure something out from her posts. If you need someone I'll volunteer but I think as good of a player as she is, she's not infallible and there's still something to learn.
Just like Spacedaisy made us "figure something" by simply voting herself and being done with it, right? You're assuming Cavil is supposed to entertain us with posts, but he is free to do so only if he finds motive and, when that happens, most certainly his posts will be crafted to not actually reveal anything helpful.

I still caution the idea of lynching Cavil, if there are teammates left in the game - It would make it easy for them to blend under the "lynch Cavil" umbrella - and as long as suspicious players (at least from my POV) say "let's go for it", rather than pointing at connections remaining. "If we don't test it now we are dumb"? Hmpf.

Cavil CAN be lynched. I assure you. I have literally no doubt in my mind that Cavil CAN be lynched. The question is not whether or not he can be lynched, the question is the conditions in which he can be lynched.

BR - I disagree. Not only is she liable to slip, but people responding to her are liable to slip as well. We can learn a lot from not only her but people's reactions to her. IMO silencing her only protects those people from slipping or giving us more evidence against her.

JJJ - I was referring to Matt. Go reread the exchange. Heck, reread my posts about Matt and LC. Somebody, please PLEASE catch on for the love of God.

#8317

EBWOP: More evidence against THEM not her. DERP. My bad

#8318

We might be able to reduce this game to its bare bones with just process of elimination at this point. There are a lot of town reads in play and I think getting them into a readily visible arrangement might be quite revealing. Perhaps another round of GTH reads are in order when more people are present.

#8319

I'm increasingly viewing DrWilgy and ObscureAllure as a dichotomy more than as a pair of suspects. If one of them is bad, I think it's Wilgy.

#8320

Id be willing to do it at some point today.
Also Cavil could be just like a shadow so active, but cant really do anything.
JJJ what do you think of Matts theory about everyone flipping mafia?

If we don't believe that then we had our eight real cylons.
Glorfindel flipped civ
7 left
Lorab flipped third party
6 left
nutella and SVS flipped mafia
5 ish left?

So we know that we have at least one civ cylon and one independent cylon, two cylons have flipped mafia. We have 5 cylons left, I'm guessing three are mafia members.
Two of these are Wilgy and Epi
Out of the final five four came back, meaning the other F5 is alive.
Out of those four two have flipped mafia, this brings the current known mafia count to 4. This is why I'm thinking we have three to four mafia cylons left that would mean in theory the mafia team is seven or eight strong. With the other three final five being civs or independents.
The other scenario is that all the final five are mafia or we have a recruiting element in play.

I'm willing to leave Epi alone for the time if we start lynching to many civs I'd like to see him go. I want to lynch Wilgy tomorrow. He has been on the chopping block for awhile yet never seems to get lynched. I'd also like to pursue a Gman and OA lynch.

I want to lynch Wilgy

#8321

I have to admit; I'm kinda scared of being NK'd tonight.

#8322

sig wrote:JJJ what do you think of Matts theory about everyone flipping mafia?

I think it's a Matt theory. I suspected both of the players that have been lynched and flipped Cavil-aligned since Cavil became a thing. I have no reason to believe those flips are erroneous.

#8323

Polo wrote:I have to admit; I'm kinda scared of being NK'd tonight.

Did you agree to a recruitment?!

#8324

ObscureAllure wrote:
Polo wrote:I have to admit; I'm kinda scared of being NK'd tonight.
Did you agree to a recruitment?!

Nah, man. I haven't even got an offer. Makes me wonder if there is in fact such a thing.

Anyway, I'd refuse if they tried to recruit me.

#8325

EBWOP: nah, woman.

#8326

After getting whipped by a four-year-old at Dazzling Princess, I have some time on my hands. Here's what I see in DrumBeats:

A prior assessment through Day 7.. It should be noted that I failed to pick up on his Day 4 sarcasm by way of thanking Cain for martial law.

On Day 8, Drum misses most of the first 24 hours. When he pops in, he opens up with some suspicions but without much detail as to why. He then spends time pointing out the problems with other people's posts before voting for rabbit mostly for the fact that bea seemed less off than rabbit.

When the Final Fivers showed up Day 9, his focus tightens and his posts get more meaty and weighty than I had noted up to that point. He spends time focused on the FF's but ultimately votes for Epi because he wants to know what Epi's alignment is now that they're being listed.

Night 9 / Day 10 is where my notes shut down while I was limited to using my smartphone while icing my [CENSORED] on the couch. Looking at his post history, he came forward with a semi-complicated lynch plan akin to what we had going on with amnesty claims. Then he disappeard completely 90 minutes or so before the Day 10 lynch and hasn't been back since (he did mention he was on vacation).

Does anyone else read him as kicking his game up a notch after the FF's rolled back into town? That's how it looks to me. Back in a bit with vote observations on DrumBeats.

#8327

If I die, please lynch G-Man

#8328

My apologies. Have been suddenly slammed at work. Post will come as soon as I am at my desk for any length of time (probably in about 30-60 minutes).

#8329

Hrm.

I've been wrong on everything. My last two top civ reads were Polo and sig. Let's lynch them lulz.

Obscure again I have no idea wtf you're talking about, the last time I asked you to explain I think you said you couldn't because you'd be mod killed and now you're bringing this up again and I just don't even...

#8330

Hate to bring stuff up, but just curious...

Are we under the assumption the rest of the Final Five are good to go now?

What if Golden did another reverse and there are 4 Final Five mafia and 1 good one? Deeeeerp.

#8331

SURPRISE

Everyone was planning a surprise birthday party for Black Rock.

They were all surprised when she turned up... blue.

Black Rock has died. It is now day 12. You have 48 hours to find the perpetrator.

#8332

The President of the colonies has passed a new law:

Marriage Equality Act: Each day, two random players will get married. The votes taken by each of them will be added together and then shared equally (half each). In the event that they tie for the most votes, the lynch candidate will be randomised.

Today's marriage...

Drumbeats and Rabbit8

#8333

We're killing it! Great work once again everyone. I am quite sure the rest of those jerks are quaking in their boots as I speak. Keep the effort level amped up, and let's take this thing home.

Today's orders: assemble a theoretical Cavil-aligned team. The whole thing. Show me what you think the most likely team structure(s) is/are. There can't be that many of them left, and some of us are feeling trustworthy of one another. So to be clear: I don't just mean tell me who your suspects are, I mean tell me who you think the whole team is. If you're not sure, lay out your suspects and decide if they make sense as a team. If they don't, reassess. We can work this out together.

SO SAY WE ALL!

#8334

So say we all!

Theoretical Cavil team:

John Cavil - S~V~S
Aaron Doral - G-Man

Possible teammates:

Athena Agathon - Epignosis
Leoben Conoy - DrWilgy
Caprica Six - ObscureAllure

#8335

PMs to come in a bit.

#8336

I'm going to be very busy in the upcoming 72h or so, so I might as well leave my vote here.

Vote G-Man

#8337

Black Rock died. Weird choice, I was convinced one of the more vocal players would kick the bucket.

Who benefits from killing Black Rock at this point?

#8338

So say we all.

Nerolunar wrote:Black Rock died. Weird choice, I was convinced one of the more vocal players would kick the bucket.

Who benefits from killing Black Rock at this point?

A baddie who wants to keep the tempo the same.

Hmm...
What are the chances we haven't been lynching baddies the past few days?

#8339

DrWilgy wrote:So say we all.

Nerolunar wrote:Black Rock died. Weird choice, I was convinced one of the more vocal players would kick the bucket.

Who benefits from killing Black Rock at this point?
A baddie who wants to keep the tempo the same.

Hmm...
What are the chances we haven't been lynching baddies the past few days?

I think Dex and Daisy were baddies.

I'm not against lynching Cavil though, I think the time is right.

#8340

So say we all.

No time for anything else at the moment.

#8341

DrWilgy wrote:So say we all.

Nerolunar wrote:Black Rock died. Weird choice, I was convinced one of the more vocal players would kick the bucket.

Who benefits from killing Black Rock at this point?
A baddie who wants to keep the tempo the same.

Hmm...
What are the chances we haven't been lynching baddies the past few days?

But this tempo has resulted in the death of two baddies. With this way of going about things I am surprised they didn't take out a universal civ read. I don't know what people thought of Black Rock, but there are certainly players who have contributed more to the civ cause that they did not target.

It's bugging me more than it should.

#8342

I would guess that BR was killed because she cannot easily be traced to anyone. It's the safest kill on the table, and that they opted for it makes me think that general consensus might be on target.

#8343

So say we all.

But this tempo has resulted in the death of two baddies. With this way of going about things I am surprised they didn't take out a universal civ read. I don't know what people thought of Black Rock, but there are certainly players who have contributed more to the civ cause that they did not target.

Didn't know you wanted me dead so badly, Tighnero.

...then again, if you're bad, you would have acted upon it...

Tighnero is cleared!

To the Admiral:

John Cavil - Sister Ruth of Uzbekistan
Aaron Doral, I'd say he's likely to flip Cavil-aligned, but no frakin' clue where he's hiding. Maybe Wilgy, maybe someone else.
Entertaining the thought that Conoy is Cavil-aligned (as he initially was), given that Boomer ended up town-aligne (as she initially was). So... DrWilgy? I don't see him putting much of a fight right now, so yeah, his post-Cylonclaim claim of innocence could have been blufferino.
Cavil Theory Advisor - Matt. I mean, he skipped over 977 theories, didn't he? What if all those involve Cavil's faction?

More than four suspects? Idk, but I'd still nominate DrumBeats or ObscureAllure under this umbrella.

As for G-Man, apart from Epignosis' call on him BS-ing something, I'd ask people to restate their cases, because the ISO with Cavil did not prove illuminating for me, personally.

#8344

So say we all.

After the latest law from the president, I'm down an option for today. I don't want to risk taking out rabbit, who I read as civ, so I can't vote for DrumBeats. Here are my team structures for the admiral:

S~V~S = Cavil (obviously)
DrumBeats = Doral, possibly Conoy
DrWilgy = Most likely Conoy, possibly Doral

or

S~V~S = Cavil
Sokoth = Doral, possibly Conoy
DrWilgy = Most likely Conoy, possibly Doral

Given all the protections that Cavil's team had going for them (rezz ships that take a few days to eliminate, Cavil surviving his first lynch, and eventual rezz of the Final Five), a small team of four makes sense. I'm torn on Wilgy though because Dex was so darn adamant that Leoben could be neutral or civ-aligned before he rezzed as a baddie. That notion is still lingering in my mind. I'm trying to wrap my head around the numbers game. Would Golden the Coward

have thought a team of three had a decent enough chance to make it to a Final Five rezz or would he have added a fourth teammate?

S~V~S bussed nutella and, if I'm right about him, so did DrumBeats. Unless S~V~S didn't think nutella had the right momentum to wind up getting lynched when she voted and it backfired on them. It was the last four-vote wave on nutella that sealed her fate. I'll have to go back and read Day 2 through again to see where consensus (if any) was at by the time S~V~S voted for nutella.

#8345

Today it's JJJ who gets two votes

#8346

Golden wrote:Today it's JJJ who gets two votes

#8347

Psst! Put them on G-Man!

#8348

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Golden wrote:Today it's JJJ who gets two votes

That yellow arrow makes no sense.

#8349

Alright, S~V~S definitely bussed nutella. S~V~S was only the 9th vote on Day 2 and 2nd overall on nutella but S~V~S voted somewhere around three hours before the lynch post. That means we had 17 votes in a span of three hours!

Looking back through her ISO, there are several places where S~V~S drops little comments about how she always thinks nutella is bad and how this or that post by nutella feels off or grasping like straws. Nutella had been mentioned and mulled over for a while, especially on the second day of the phase. If S~V~S is part of a trio, then bussing a teammate on Day 2 makes no sense to me. It makes even less sense considering that the rezz ships had been discovered with the Epi lynch and were being hunted down. I think there are still two baddies among us.

#8350

So Say we All!

Sorry, this last few days has been busy for me. I'm transitioning between jobs right now so my time is somewhat limited. I do apologize.

per the Admiral's request. here are my suspicions for whats potentially left for a Cavil aligned team.

John Cavil - Because John Cavil!

DrWilgy – Because they’ve given me no cause to think otherwise yet.

G-Man – Earlier on in the game they had a very nonchalant response to another toaster getting lynched and you’d think they would have been more excited over that. But that stood out to me.

Polo – I believe Polo I is also a Cylon I just cannot for the life of me decide if they are good or bad. I know were winding down on possibilities but I’m leaning towards Cavil aligned. My notes essentially go with his behavior back when this whole thing about claiming and my back and forth with DrWilgy.

Who be you lynching today?