RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[Marmot]

I should have some time in the morning before this phase ends to cover some things I want to ensure I remember:

~ tinfoil case(s)
~ contingencies
~ GTHs

This post is for me.

What do you mean by contingencies here?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you mean by contingencies here?

You'll see shortly.

[Ricochet]

I was the leading wagon and I didn't respond to his ISO.

[Ricochet]

EBWOP

I was the leading wagon and I didn't respond to his ISO.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

At one point last night I had 4 votes and Quin had 3. I don't remember the exact circumstances. It may have been MM who switched?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have a couple of tinfoils I'd like to discuss regarding Sloonei and Golden. I am not endorsing their lynches, but instead consider these scenarios that I think might need to be considered later if circumstance demands it.

I suggested earlier that there's a valid tinfoil case to be made against Golden. I will outline it, but I can't easily reference specific posts right now so bullets will have to do.
- His Day 1 vote for Scotty was the first of the final votes that landed on him, and it may have been the first Scotty vote overall (I can't recall for sure). This means that the climate of the thread at the time the vote was placed was such that this vote wasn't a total condemnation of Scotty. Alternatives were still being discussed, like my own concerns about leetic, Ricochet, and Epignosis. It's plausible this was a bus vote and Golden didn't think there was immense danger yet in placing the vote.
- He has been more staunchly anti-Quin than anyone else on the roster, including Sloonei, and I don't think the case against Quin quite warrants that degree of confidence. In the event of a Quin town flip, this is something that will need to be re-examined critically.
- His own read of me is also more confident than I'd expect most people's to be, which could approach TMI in the event that I end up lynched. My own town flip will make my accusers look crappy and my defenders look nice, and baddies know that.

~~~

Another tinfoil, for Sloonei:
- The general case to be made against Sloonei is quite similar to the ones being presented against me and even Quin. He was clearly more anti-Scotty in his language than I was, but his actions were very much the same. He started the INH counterwagon, he started smearing people before Scotty flipped town, projecting the town flip. The latter concerns me more than the former.
- He's just now started to put together concerns he has about me, which means he has free reign over the current tally to vote for either Quin or I. He's done this while also criticizing the people who are inclined to vote for neither of us, which is in truth a similar circumstance.

~~~

I don't really think either of these guys is bad, but I wanted to get these points out there. They can at least respond to them. If the time comes and shit is hitting the fan, maybe these things need to be revisited.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was hoping we could harness some of the heightened energy of last night into a live GTH reads exercise, if a decent number of players are present. It'd have to be relatively soon though, I don't want to do it too close to the tally deadline.

[Ricochet]

At one point last night I had 4 votes and Quin had 3. I don't remember the exact circumstances. It may have been MM who switched?

1 SLO: QUIN
2 GOLD: QUIN
RICO: JJJ
RICO: QUIN
4 WILG: RICO
5 RICO: WILG
6 QUIN: JJJ
MM: BECK
7 EPIG: JJJ
8 INH: JJJ
9 JJJ: QUIN
10 MM: QUIN

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not defensive at all, frankly. I'm the opposite of that. I am certainly pissy though. It drives me nuts when people don't listen.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Contingencies in the event Quin is town:

~ It's still entirely possible my old PoE is correct and that the baddies are among the inactives.
~ Of the Day 1 Scotty voters, I think the least likely bus is the Epignosis vote. The rest can be re-examined, to include WIFOM bucket's hammer vote.
~ Beck becomes significantly more likely to be bad than before just by default.
~ Tinfoil cases given more scrutiny.

[Ricochet]

Contingencies in the event Quin is town:

~ It's still entirely possible my old PoE is correct and that the baddies are among the inactives. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
~ Of the Day 1 Scotty voters, I think the least likely bus is the Epignosis vote. The rest can be re-examined, to include WIFOM bucket's hammer vote. ☑
~ Beck becomes significantly more likely to be bad than before just by default. (?)
~ Tinfoil cases given more scrutiny. ☑

[JaggedJimmyJay]

~ It's still entirely possible my old PoE is correct and that the baddies are among the inactives. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I believe in the PoE. Sure, I could be wrong. But I'm going with my reads as they are.

~ Beck becomes significantly more likely to be bad than before just by default. (?)

I think there's a similar appearance in Scotty's posts about Beck as there is about Quin. I referenced a post earlier that I keep returning to in my head, you can probably find it in my ISO. I think he kind of fits the profile given that his early contributions came more in quantity than quality.

[Marmot]

At one point last night I had 4 votes and Quin had 3. I don't remember the exact circumstances. It may have been MM who switched?

I was on you, yeah. I voted you to put you up 3-2, then inh put you at 4-2, then you voted Quin to close the gap.

I later switched to flip Quin into the lead.

[Marmot]

We've got like 1 hour until the deadline. Make those GTH reads happen Jay.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We've got like 1 hour until the deadline. Make those GTH reads happen Jay.

Who's in?

[Marmot]

We've got like 1 hour until the deadline. Make those GTH reads happen Jay.

Who's in?

I'm at work and may disappear, but count me in.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd like at least four or five to make it worthwhile.

[Marmot]

inh, Sloonei, you guys in too?

[insertnamehere]

gimme 20 minutes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

gimme 20 minutes

That's enough time to pre-arrange your reads and it defeats the purpose. If you're busy, you're busy.

[Marmot]

Grumpy Jay is grumpy.

[Ricochet]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Is that a no?

[Ricochet]

[Marmot]

I'm leaving my vote on Quin, assuming he doesn't show up. He hasn't posted yet as the day winds down, and I think a civilian would have been more likely to make a last-ditch effort to save himself or informed us he wouldn't be around.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We're about to lynch one of those two people. Reads preceding a flip can be valuable data points.

It's getting too late anyway. I really need a shower and I don't want to wait for the tally deadline.

[Marmot]

Hey G-Man, was Scotty a special kind of baddie, or just vanilla?

[insertnamehere]

Rico, why did you vote Quin?

[Ricochet]

[Marmot]

I think we should CFD Ricotoupee.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Is it a vote you believe in and are invested in?

[G-Man]

Hey G-Man, was Scotty a special kind of baddie, or just vanilla?

[insertnamehere]

@Quin voters who aren't 3J: In the event that Quin is civ, would you be open to a 3J lynch Day 3?

[Marmot]

Hey G-Man, was Scotty a special kind of baddie, or just vanilla?

Spoiler: show

[Marmot]

@Quin voters who aren't 3J: In the event that Quin is civ, would you be open to a 3J lynch Day 3?

Yes I would be interested. We can talk more about it after we find out what Quin is. Who knows, we might have to wait a few hours to find out.

[Ricochet]

Is it a vote you believe in and are invested in?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Quin voters who aren't 3J: In the event that Quin is civ, would you be open to a 3J lynch Day 3?

How will you feel about everyone in the event that Quin is mafia?

[insertnamehere]

@Quin voters who aren't 3J: In the event that Quin is civ, would you be open to a 3J lynch Day 3?

How will you feel about everyone in the event that Quin is mafia?

I'd look more at the inacts, and cast a wider net.

I wouldn't stop suspecting you, though. I may not stump super hard for your lynch Day 3, but you'd still be on my shitlist.

[G-Man]

DUMP-A-TRUMP

Debbie Wasserman Schultz smirked when her phone started ringing. Despite the pressure of her primary vote the next day, she felt cool, calm, and collected.

“Good evening, Sidney,” she said, “I have some good news for you.”

“Good,” the man’s voice replied. “After yesterday’s debacle, I believe I’m owed a little good news. What’s the latest on Boyd?”

“That’s not the good news,” Debbie said. “Boyd has not been seen or heard from since Sunday’s Inner Circle meeting.”

“I fail to see where the good news is then.”

“Neither of our remaining operatives were removed from the Inner Circle today. In fact, they removed one of the Trump kids.”

“Really?” the man asked. A hint of glee elbowed its way into his otherwise stern voice.

“Yes, they sent Eric off to isolation just before dinner.”

“That’s going to rattle the cage quite a bit.”

“I’m counting on it.”

“Any details on tonight’s operation? I certainly hope they know better than to start another fire.”

“I’m sure arson is not in their plans tonight. That would look too obvious and the last thing we want anyone feeling for Donald is sympathy because someone is out to get him.”

“Indeed. Any details on what they are planning?”

“No,” Debbie answered. “Since the net was lowered on the Inner Circle, I’ve been shut out from any details. But we know that the campaign is splitting up tomorrow. Donald is heading out to Washington state while Pence stays in Georgia. Donald has a red-eye departure. With security splitting their focus, there ought to be ample opportunity to add a little more chaos to his campaign.”

“Good. As long as the fire investigation doesn’t yield anything illuminating, I’m willing to tolerate the loss of one operative.”

“Our firefighter union contacts have assured us that the cause of the blaze will be deemed electrical in nature.”

“Excellent. Barring any undesirable discoveries, I think you can rest easy tomorrow. We’ll make sure you win your primary by a relatively comfortable margin. Besides, the last thing she needs is for a reliable ally to be replaced by one of Bernie’s people. That old man and his pretty little revolution isn’t fading fast enough. But that’s another plan for another day. I’ll leave you to your evening.”

“Goodnight Sidney,” Debbie said and hung up. A relatively comfortable margin? That was music to her ears.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Quin has been removed from the Inner Circle. He was ERIC TRUMP, a member of the Trump family and a vanilla civvie.

It is now Night 2.
You have until noon (EST) to send me your night actions.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Balls.

Shower me with your outrage, I don't give a damn.

[Ricochet]

[insertnamehere]

[img]blob:[/img]

[insertnamehere]

[Ricochet]

[insertnamehere]

Wait for tomorrow...

"No, lets not lynch the confirmed baddie Quin. Lets lynch epignosis, he was wrong about Jay"

I am not a confirmed baddie.

I disagree. Scotty outed you.

Until I see the word 'cop' or 'red peek' alongside my name I am not a confirmed baddie.

Nah. If you're not a baddie, you're not a baddie. No conditions on 'until'.

You are a baddie.

Oh, inh, whatever. You do you.

I'll assume whatever I want because I find baddies that way. I know a bit about game design and I've got a pretty good track record of figuring out things through assumptions. Unless epi is hosting, who knows what his games are up to.

You can run around with paranoia that the obvious isn't a known fact if you like, but you can't deny that what I've put forward is entirely logical and is a good theory of the game. The only reason it's bothering you is because you don't like that I'm being arrogant about it, and that's paranoia speaking.

In the end, I think you'll see that I'm right about quin... I hope it's today, if it's not then whenever. The evidence is ample that quin is bad. If town lose keeping quin alive, I told you so.

This is why town keep losing games here. Instead of going 'this is a good case, it's probably about 80% odds of being right - do it and reevaluate', everyone spends too much time worrying about the 20% of times its wrong. Sometimes you just have to go with Occam's Razor. If you lynch quin and he's town, then come at me.

And Jay is right that there is no value in defending against me. I'm voting for you today, because I think you've been rumbled by Scotty's flip, and nothing you say will change that.

[insertnamehere]

Balls.

Shower me with your outrage, I don't give a damn.

The only person I'm outraged at is Golden, because I still read him as civ.

I'm not in the least bit outraged at you because you're obviously bad.

What would getting angry at you acting scummy yet again accomplish?

[Marmot]

I'm holding my breath, just in case.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

INH, I'm curious:

What is the difference between Golden and I that makes him a civ read and me obviously bad?

[Marmot]

It's Night 2, we've lynched one mafia and (maybe) one town. Inh, why are you so distraught?

[Marmot]

I'm also on my work computer, so don't have access to what the poll looked like. Hopefully G-Man will have those up soon.