RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[Marmot]

An SK would have the inclination to act as an active baddie-hunter, especially at a point in the game where civilian numbers are low compared to mafia numbers.

They would, yes. And perhaps INH really was looking for a scum and tunneled me that thoroughly. It happens. I want him to respond to my assertions before I make that assumption in his favor.

It's certainly plausible. The odds of Quin being the SK aren't very high, and the odds of him being mafia are extremely slim considering they're likely dead. Yet he's tunneled on me the last day and a half.

I can only remember one game where we lynched a player because we thought they were the SK, as opposed to reading them as mafia. That was in Talking Heads with Diiny. And if I recall, the only reason we caught him was because he didn't post one night and missed a kill. His record otherwise was pretty pristine.

I voted for Diiny in Talking Heads because of night kill analysis. Because it was successful in that game, I employed the same method in this game -- that's when I determined the two players most implicated by the kills on Nights 1 and 2 were INH and yourself. I've started to like you more since then, and I think Epignosis on Night 3 is also attributable to INH (Epignosis voiced suspicion of INH throughout Day 3 and after reywaS flipped town and I looked better he'd have probably gone that direction again).

And here's a testament as to why I would not nightkill Epignosis. :P

My point is, I don't think you can use the exact same argument with a different conclusion, because the argument doesn't relate to this particular role.

That's kind of my point too -- the conclusion is a general one. He suspects me regardless of circumstance and is not developing his read. He's counting on me being lynched. I think that's mafia behavior and serial killer behavior. I could be wrong, but I want his answers.

Perhaps you are right. I think I'm just being overly pedantic about this.

If inh suspects you of being mafia (sincerely or not), then nightkilling you isn't really in the cards for him, as that leaves him at a dead end, and looking bad if he is wrong about you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The odds of Quin being the SK aren't very high, and the odds of him being mafia are extremely slim considering they're likely dead. Yet he's tunneled on me the last day and a half.

Yeah, that's a parallel I'm conscious of. Quin should share his current read on Marmot.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am content to act on the assumption that the serial killer killed Epignosis with the intention of removing a townie. Credit to Epignosis to looking the part (perhaps a little too well ). With this in mind, I think the kill would be less likely to come from someone who was in good standing with Epi. This would be a decent look for Golden 2.0 -- he and Epi had their disagreements, but it never took the form of Epi suspecting Golden. I might even say that from the perspective of a SK Golden, he'd have had Epi pocketed. I don't believe Epi ever cast meaningful suspicion upon Sloonei either -- just an isolated about his Day 1 CFDing.

I can't remember off-hand what Epi's take was on MM and Becquin. I'll have to look.

[Marmot]

I am content to act on the assumption that the serial killer killed Epignosis with the intention of removing a townie. Credit to Epignosis to looking the part (perhaps a little too well ). With this in mind, I think the kill would be less likely to come from someone who was in good standing with Epi. This would be a decent look for Golden 2.0 -- he and Epi had their disagreements, but it never took the form of Epi suspecting Golden. I might even say that from the perspective of a SK Golden, he'd have had Epi pocketed. I don't believe Epi ever cast meaningful suspicion upon Sloonei either -- just an isolated about his Day 1 CFDing.

I can't remember off-hand what Epi's take was on MM and Becquin. I'll have to look.

Epignosis never really interacted with me. That's curious.

[Marmot]

This is the only serious thing Epignosis had to say to me all game. Lot's of jokiness, but this is it with regards to on-topic posts.

I just voted INH.

I'd like to know why.

I was reading through INH. It's a small thing, but:

And I'm very rarely 100% sure of anyone's alignment. Although, if I am, it's probably Epignosis. And I've been right about him for the last two games.

Yeah, you really got me with that, "He's either Shawn or a confused civilian but totally not Yin oh no wait he's Yin."

You should be a politician.

I thought you were Yin ever since my team failed to NK you, I just didn't announce so in the thread.

INH made like he was some expert on me. When I called him on it, he raised the fact that he was bad in that game...which was the entire point of my response.

Since then, he's called me good. That doesn't sit right with me looking back.

[Marmot]

My vote today will end up on either insertnamehere, Sloonei, JaggedJimmyJay. I think there's enough circumstantial evidence based on activity to rule out Quin 2.0 and Golden 2.0. Those 3 are listed in order of my current vote preference.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I guess I'll ask this to anyone willing to answer.

Who are the best wolves in this lineup? Who are the best villagers?

Is there anyone who cannot play one alignment well?

If I'm bad I will win. See my signature? Most of those are mafia wins. I'm proud of that.

Am I bad? Are you?

This guy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I can't find an example of Epignosis addressing or speaking of Quin 2.0 at any point after Beck was replaced. Not a word.

Not sure why Quin 2.0 would feel the need to kill someone who thought he was invisible.

However, I think you're incorrect to disqualify him MM. Beck was definitely here at the start of Night 1, and Quin 2.0 replaced him in the middle of Night 2. The slot was filled and active as necessary to deliver all possible SK kills.

[Golden]

Good reveal. I'm not surprised to see that epi is bad. I was leaning that way by the time I died. Epi's argument lacked substance and I found it a struggle to see him as a tunneler as town... It didn't fit that epi would be blind to the flaws in his argument.

Gotta assume a sk at this point.

[Sloonei]

WELL! My gut says that INH is the initial choice to be the serial killer. I never had a scum read on him, but his play this game, from what I remember early on, had been a bit perplexing. I am not as confident in my ability to hunt an independent killer as I am at hunting a scum affiliated player, but I'll do what I can.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am not as confident in my ability to hunt an independent killer as I am at hunting a scum affiliated player, but I'll do what I can.

I think it is an objectively more difficult task. There are no team affiliations to investigate. All we have is what we see at face value and a few night kills we aren't even sure who committed.

[Golden]

The most surprising thing is epi must have killed wilgy. Bizarre choice. If wilgy was gone and epi was alive he would have been my top suspect today.

[Sloonei]

I am going to operate under the assumption that the second victim listed in each night post is the SK's victim. So that means Boomslang, Golden 1.0, and Epignosis.

But then I also think the serial killer's primary objective is to obscure their identity. A good way to do this is to pick targets that won't be traced back to them ("random" targets). So, again, I don't know how confidently I can hunt for a serial killer.

[Sloonei]

The most surprising thing is epi must have killed wilgy. Bizarre choice. If wilgy was gone and epi was alive he would have been my top suspect today.

This is a good point. Wilgy is the last person I would have expected scum to kill last night.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am going to operate under the assumption that the second victim listed in each night post is the SK's victim. So that means Boomslang, Golden 1.0, and Epignosis.

But then I also think the serial killer's primary objective is to obscure their identity. A good way to do this is to pick targets that won't be traced back to them ("random" targets). So, again, I don't know how confidently I can hunt for a serial killer.

I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.

I'm not sure we can eliminate anyone from candidacy. Quin 2.0's slot was occupied to send all kills. I know leetic at least logged in to the website while he was posting nothing here, and it could have been during night phases. I don't remember for sure.

[Marmot]

I can't find an example of Epignosis addressing or speaking of Quin 2.0 at any point after Beck was replaced. Not a word.

Not sure why Quin 2.0 would feel the need to kill someone who thought he was invisible.

However, I think you're incorrect to disqualify him MM. Beck was definitely here at the start of Night 1, and Quin 2.0 replaced him in the middle of Night 2. The slot was filled and active as necessary to deliver all possible SK kills.

Alright, Quin's not off the table. I incorrectly remembered when he subbed back in.

[Sloonei]

All I know for sure is that I hope we're looking for Ted Cruz right now.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Perhaps there's something to be said of Golden 2.0 continuing to promote the possibility of a town vigilante instead of a serial killer until it was nearly impossible for the former to be a thing.

[Sloonei]

Perhaps there's something to be said of Golden 2.0 continuing to promote the possibility of a town vigilante instead of a serial killer until it was nearly impossible for the former to be a thing.

What sort of strategy do you imagine the serial killer employing in this game?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Perhaps there's something to be said of Golden 2.0 continuing to promote the possibility of a town vigilante instead of a serial killer until it was nearly impossible for the former to be a thing.

What sort of strategy do you imagine the serial killer employing in this game?

I think that depends upon the player. I'd generally expect to see genuine scum hunting. I think most SKs would be less vocal than the most vocal townies so as to avoid mafia kills, but that's still dependent upon the personality and style of the player. I am looking into something a little different right now though.

[Sloonei]

Perhaps there's something to be said of Golden 2.0 continuing to promote the possibility of a town vigilante instead of a serial killer until it was nearly impossible for the former to be a thing.

What sort of strategy do you imagine the serial killer employing in this game?

I think that depends upon the player. I'd generally expect to see genuine scum hunting. I think most SKs would be less vocal than the most vocal townies so as to avoid mafia kills, but that's still dependent upon the personality and style of the player. I am looking into something a little different right now though.

I want to agree with this, but I can't reject the possibility of WIFOM.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Looking for mentions of "SK" or "serial killer" or "independent" (noun) or "indy" earlier in the game before it was viewed as a serious possibility:

yay game!

I'm gonna have to vote for Crazy Bernie, who I expect to be some sort of psycho serial killer role.

Also, Milo Yiannopolus better be a vanilla loser, or I'll become SLIGHTLY MIFFED.

You won't like me when I'm SLIGHTLY MIFFED.

INH on Day 0.

TED CRUZ IS THE ZODIAC KILLER

I'll be immensely disappointed if Ted Cruz isn't a rogue serial killer in this game.

Sloonei on Day 0.

~~~

The conversation about SKs kicked off a lot more after Night 1 where there were two kills.

The purpose of this is that I have sometimes seen LMS rogues who have a tendency to blab about themselves either directly or in roundabout ways.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Perhaps there's something to be said of Golden 2.0 continuing to promote the possibility of a town vigilante instead of a serial killer until it was nearly impossible for the former to be a thing.

What sort of strategy do you imagine the serial killer employing in this game?

I think that depends upon the player. I'd generally expect to see genuine scum hunting. I think most SKs would be less vocal than the most vocal townies so as to avoid mafia kills, but that's still dependent upon the personality and style of the player. I am looking into something a little different right now though.

I want to agree with this, but I can't reject the possibility of WIFOM.

The safest and perhaps also most logical answer is "a SK would behave very similarly to the way they'd behave as a townie". Their agenda is similar after all -- they're just more concerned with survival.

[Sloonei]

Hey INH, who's the serial killer?

[G-Man]

I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.

You are wrong about this. You have all the information you need to figure out who killed whom.

[Sloonei]

I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.

You are wrong about this. You have all the information you need to figure out who killed whom.

I'm not seeing it. Can you just tell us who did it?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Alrighty then. All I can guess is that it's a confirmation of Sloonei's theory: the SK kills are listed second each night. I don't see anything else in the language of the kill reveals to serve as information.

One of them was "food poisoning", but only one.

[Marmot]

I considered the possibility of mafia having two nightkills and there being no SK, but that goes out the window with Epignosis's flip.

[Marmot]

Sloonei on Day 0 you say?

Looking for mentions of "SK" or "serial killer" or "independent" (noun) or "indy" earlier in the game before it was viewed as a serious possibility:

yay game!

I'm gonna have to vote for Crazy Bernie, who I expect to be some sort of psycho serial killer role.

Also, Milo Yiannopolus better be a vanilla loser, or I'll become SLIGHTLY MIFFED.

You won't like me when I'm SLIGHTLY MIFFED.

INH on Day 0.

TED CRUZ IS THE ZODIAC KILLER

I'll be immensely disappointed if Ted Cruz isn't a rogue serial killer in this game.

Sloonei on Day 0.

~~~

The conversation about SKs kicked off a lot more after Night 1 where there were two kills.

The purpose of this is that I have sometimes seen LMS rogues who have a tendency to blab about themselves either directly or in roundabout ways.

Sloonei on Day 4.

All I know for sure is that I hope we're looking for Ted Cruz right now.

He's got a hankering for finding Ted Cruz.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

DrWilgy has been hospitalized and cannot continue with the campaign. He was KELLYANNE CONWAY, Donald Trump's campaign manager and a vanilla civvie.

Boomslang has also been hospitalized and cannot continue with the campaign. He was CHRIS CHRISTIE, a Trump sycophant and a vanilla civvie.

Ricochet has been hospitalized with food poisoning. He was MIKE PENCE, Donald Trump's Vice Presidential pick and a vanilla civvie.

Golden has also been hospitalized. He was MIKE HUCKABEE, a Trump sycophant and a vanilla civvie.

DrWilgy has been hospitalized. He was RICK SANTORUM, a Trump sycophant and a vanilla civvie.

Epignosis has also been hospitalized. He was TIFFANY TRUMP, a member of the Trump family and a vanilla civvie.

I'll leave these here so anyone good at pattern recognition or something might see some shit I don't see.

[Marmot]

I'm moving my vote to Sloonei.

Are you Ted Cruz mate?

[Sloonei]

I'm moving my vote to Sloonei.

Are you Ted Cruz mate?

no.

[G-Man]

I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.

You are wrong about this. You have all the information you need to figure out who killed whom.

I'm not seeing it. Can you just tell us who did it?

I come from the olden days of Lostpedia and SpoilerTV. Back then, the TV-centric fandom of those sites encouraged longer narratives in lynch and night posts. Those posts helped add depth to the story being told concurrent to the events of the game. They also often contained game-relevant information and were not to be skipped over just to see who died. This is an element I think I miss the most. Gone is much of the art and beauty of the narrative side of game. Instead we trend more toward data-driven posts that cater to those who approach the game more as a science than as a form of entertainment.

This is my first time hosting on The Syndicate. I've got my hosting feet planted firmly in the past. I don't write longer lynch and night posts out of vanity or ego. Read the posts and find the clues.

[Sloonei]

I'm gonna put my vote on INH because this is all he's had to say since the Cruz hunt began:

ha

and his play in this game overall makes very little sense to me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Boomslang as a SK target may implicate leetic/Golden 2.0. Boom had a quiet Day 1, but he still joined me in my suspicion of leetic and left his vote.

Golden 1.0 as a SK target would implicate INH and MM more than the rest, I think. Golden 1.0 had his beefs with INH on Night 2, and though they waned later INH may have still felt threatened. Golden 1.0's suspicion of MM was more vague and circumstantial -- as a tinfoil mafia team mate of INH.

[Sloonei]

I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.

You are wrong about this. You have all the information you need to figure out who killed whom.

I'm not seeing it. Can you just tell us who did it?

I come from the olden days of Lostpedia and SpoilerTV. Back then, the TV-centric fandom of those sites encouraged longer narratives in lynch and night posts. Those posts helped add depth to the story being told concurrent to the events of the game. They also often contained game-relevant information and were not to be skipped over just to see who died. This is an element I think I miss the most. Gone is much of the art and beauty of the narrative side of game. Instead we trend more toward data-driven posts that cater to those who approach the game more as a science than as a form of entertainment.

This is my first time hosting on The Syndicate. I've got my hosting feet planted firmly in the past. I don't write longer lynch and night posts out of vanity or ego. Read the posts and find the clues.

sure thing mr manager.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This is my first time hosting on The Syndicate. I've got my hosting feet planted firmly in the past. I don't write longer lynch and night posts out of vanity or ego. Read the posts and find the clues. [/color][/b]

Oh. I do read stuff, but I have always refused to view it as relevant -- I didn't realize that was ever a thing.

*goes back to digging*

[Marmot]

I suspect G-Man wouldn't want it to be so easy to discern which kill is which. Who knows.

You are wrong about this. You have all the information you need to figure out who killed whom.

I'm not seeing it. Can you just tell us who did it?

I come from the olden days of Lostpedia and SpoilerTV. Back then, the TV-centric fandom of those sites encouraged longer narratives in lynch and night posts. Those posts helped add depth to the story being told concurrent to the events of the game. They also often contained game-relevant information and were not to be skipped over just to see who died. This is an element I think I miss the most. Gone is much of the art and beauty of the narrative side of game. Instead we trend more toward data-driven posts that cater to those who approach the game more as a science than as a form of entertainment.

This is my first time hosting on The Syndicate. I've got my hosting feet planted firmly in the past. I don't write longer lynch and night posts out of vanity or ego. Read the posts and find the clues.

This sounds like fun!

I suck at these sorts of things though. :P

[Golden]

I can't see anything either. If I'm the sk kill that surprises me, I only look more like the mafia kill in my own eyes after the epi flip (the last thing that happened before I died was epi suggested he might engage with me about other people than jay then vanished when I tried), but if we have everything we need it does look like I was the sk kill.

Jay, didn't want to rule out vig, especially given wilgy kill which didn't make a lot of sense to me from other angles, but obviously clearly sk now. A lot of things in this game haven't added up in my brain, that's just another case where 1+1 = 3

[Golden]

I don't think inh is a good choice today. I'm still looking at sloonei, Quin and mm as my likely candidates.

[Sloonei]

I don't think inh is a good choice today. I'm still looking at sloonei, Quin and mm as my likely candidates.

why not?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Okay. I think:

Wilgy 1.0 was killed by the SK. It was a "fire" with no known cause.

Boomslang was killed by the mafia. He was killed as an effect of an explosion perpetrated by multiple people.

Ricochet was killed by the mafia. The same conspirators in the explosion poisoned him.

Golden 1.0 was killed by the SK. He was tripped by one unknown person.

Epignosis was killed by the SK.

DrWilgy 2.0 was killed by the mafia.

[Sloonei]

OPEN MIKE NIGHT

With Donald flying solo to Washington state, the rest of the Inner Circle gathered for breakfast. Well, not all of them. Between bites of a breakfast burrito, one of them looked at his watch and quietly excused himself.

Once secluded in a quiet hallway, he pulled out a secret cell phone from his jacket pocket. Right on time, it began to ring. He answered it.

"Good morning, Charles."

"Considering the fact that I'm watching news about Trump landing safely in Seattle, I'd say it's not my idea of a good morning. Was this another rush job like what took out Christie?"

"Not exactly, Charles. And remember that the blast was on target regardless of how hasty I was. Christie just got in the way."

"So what happened this time?"

"Dumb luck."

"How so?"

"I spiked the wrong glass. Trump ordered smoothies for everyone. The waitress didn't deliver them in the same order as everything else she brought."

"So who woke up wishing they were dead this morning?" Charles asked.

"Pence. Which is just as well. He was asking for it anyway."

"Just remember that David and I are not paying you to create drama within Trump's campaign; we're paying you to eliminate him. Hillary isn't winning over any new hearts and minds these days, so it's vital that we get a substitute candidate in play."

"Yes sir."

"Any idea what happened to Huckabee?"

"Hard to say for sure. We were all following Donald to see him off for his red-eye flight when Mike went down hard. We were pretty tightly packed but I swear it looked like someone tripped him. I couldn't tell who. He twisted his ankle, broke his wrist and his nose."

"Poor baby. Still, it's curious, the timing of it all. Keep an eye out for any intra-campaign mischief. I'll call you tomorrow morning, same time as usual. Now go get back to your breakfast

----------------------

Ricochet has been hospitalized with food poisoning. He was MIKE PENCE, Donald Trump's Vice Presidential pick and a vanilla civvie.

Golden has also been hospitalized. He was MIKE HUCKABEE, a Trump sycophant and a vanilla civvie.

It is now Day 3.
You have 72 hours to remove someone from the Inner Circle.

Looks like Rico (Pence) was the serial killer's target here. And that the serial killer's aim is to kill Trump, maybe.

[G-Man]

Okay. I think:

Wilgy 1.0 was killed by the SK. It was a "fire" with no known cause.

Boomslang was killed by the mafia. He was killed as an effect of an explosion perpetrated by multiple people.

Ricochet was killed by the mafia. The same conspirators in the explosion poisoned him.

Golden 1.0 was killed by the SK. He was tripped by one unknown person.

Epignosis was killed by the SK.

DrWilgy 2.0 was killed by the mafia.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[Marmot]

[Golden]

Public service announcement:

Today is Friday. I have a meeting filled day with limited desk time.
Tomorrow is Saturday, hanging out with sister in law...
On Sunday afternoon I'll get access to my pc back.

My point being, for the next three days the bulk of my posting will be phone, and less frequent.

@sloon - I don't think inh has been coming from the place of a villain. I hope that he comes back and helps catch the sk, because from my perspective the numbers are on the towns side. Lynching inh changes that, from my perspective.

[Sloonei]

The scum team was Operation Cobalt, headed by Debbie Wasserman Schultz and their objective was to sabotage Trump's campaign.
The serial killer, as indicated in the "Open Mike Night" post above, is being informed by mysteries figures named Charles and David. His goal is to take out Trump himself. He killed Christie (Boomslang), Pence (Rico), and Brown (Epi) by mistake.

Operation Cobalt, meanwhile, is trying to "cause drama" in the campaign, so they set fire to Conway (Wilgy 1.0), and roughed up Huckabee (Golden 1.0), and Santorum (Wilgy 2.0).

i think

[Sloonei]

Let's talk about why you are voting for me. Is it just because I've made a couple remarks about Ted Cruz?

[Sloonei]

Because

Ricochet, on a scale of one to Ted Cruz, how mafia are you?