RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm off to bed now. Catch you all in the morning.

Don't night kill anybody while you're away.

[Quin]

I'll have to read into it, but I have a lasagne to eat in like 5 minutes so I'll raincheck you

Right now I'm going to move my vote to INH, just because he's sitting lowest on my list rn and I don't think marmot is a good lynch anymore. How things change in a matter of a day...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

VOTE SLOONEI at least for the moment.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This game needs to end, I should be studying.

[Quin]

I wouldn't study even if it was over.

[Quin]

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

[Golden]

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

[G-Man]

G-MAN: Is it possible to no lynch in this game?

No.

[insertnamehere]

Rainbow List:

Golden 2.0

I may not always agree with your opinions, but I will say that my annoyance with you has been for purely game-based reasons. I know everybody, especially me, got very frustrated earlier in the game, so I took a bit of a step back from the computer screen and repeated a slightly modified version of the Mystery Science Theatre 3000 Mantra:

"Just repeat to yourself, it's just a game, I should really just relax."

MetalMarsh

Metalmarsh has struck me as an especially zany civ. I realize his "Stop Making Sense" thread behavior can seem off-putting, but I'm not viewing that as a reason to start exterminating Marmots everywhere. He doesn't really line up with my idea of a SK, and how an SK would behave.

JaggedJimmyJay



Yes, hardy har, it looks like I was dead wrong about 3J being a part of the mafia. But I'm not willing to clear him 100% from suspicion just yet. He's still done some things that makes me raise my eyebrows so high that my face starts hurting, but I'm not exactly sure how the kills match up to him.

He's not somebody I want to lynch today, but someone I'm not gonna look away from just yet.

Quin 2.0

Quin 2.0 came back into the game with some pretty nice cogent thread analysis. It didn't quite make me go "WHO IS THIS NEW AMAZING QUIN, AND WHERE HAS HE BEEN ALL MY LIFE?", but it was cool beans. But, as things and times get tough, Quin's still Quinning along, and to take a page out of Edgar Allen's playbook, he's someone I don't have as many reasons to call civ than some of the other players. I don't like his sudden case against Marmot, and nothing else he's done has inspired much confidence in me. He's definitely someone I'm looking at today.

Sloonei

Probably my biggest SK read. Day 1, he lead a victorious campaign against Sloonei (before turning around and voting me ) and then retreated from the limelight, coasting on good vibes from that one lynch. If I was an independent Serial Killer, that's exactly how I would play it. He's been feigning confusion and "I DUNNO WHO I'M GONNA VOTE FOR" for a bit too long.

Probably where my vote's going.

[Sloonei]

Whoa hey slow down, what are we all doing right now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Whoa hey slow down, what are we all doing right now?

The rationale is in recent posts.

[Sloonei]

I told you. I'm more interested in lynching someone who could be either mafia or serial killer. I don't think reywaS or DrWilgy are the latter. You could be either one.

That is a peculiar strategy. Why are you using it?

What makes it peculiar?

Why would you not simply want to lynch the person most likely to be mafia or most likely to be the serial killer? It seems you are thinning out or weakening your suspicions by trying to potentially lynch them both. You can only lynch one player at a time. Why not focus on one role?

Because you catch serial killers by luck. Even if I'm wrong that 3J is mafia, there's a chance he's a serial killer. If you're wrong about reywaS, you're probably not getting the serial killer.

I do not agree that we catch serial killers purely by luck.

Epignosis may have been scum, but that's irrelevant to the SK. He didn't know that. Thus, anyone communicating with Epignosis among the living people would be interacting with him as they would anyone else.

Epi rejected the reywaS lynch because he said it didn't boast dual-potential to net a mafia or a serial killer. He wanted to lynch someone who was a viable candidate for both (he was bullshitting, but it's the perspective he provided). Given this mindset he portrayed, he was clearly conscious of both the mafia and the serial simultaneously -- the mindset Sloonei would seem to favor when he criticizes MM for "let's ignore the serial killer".

This might be an actual contradiction from Sloonei and evidence a disingenuous interaction.

No. The MM criticism was more that it felt lime he was making an effort to stear the conversation away from the serial killer. This conversation with Epi was just about getting him to explain a strategy I did not understand, probablt because he'a full of shit, as youm mentioned.

Do not lynch me. If you look at my participation today and do not see a genuine effort to find the last remaining bad guy, then I don't know what to say. I've done everything I can and was hoping to continue with that this morning, but now I apparently have to spend time digging myself out of this hole I'm suddenly in.

I still think it's Metalmarsh, though INH's gote right up there looks hella opportunistic. When have I ever been his top suspect in anything before right now?

[Sloonei]

Rainbow List:
Sloonei

Probably my biggest SK read. Day 1, he lead a victorious campaign against Sloonei (before turning around and voting me ) and then retreated from the limelight, coasting on good vibes from that one lynch. If I was an independent Serial Killer, that's exactly how I would play it. He's been feigning confusion and "I DUNNO WHO I'M GONNA VOTE FOR" for a bit too long.

Probably where my vote's going.

Every word of this is bullshit. We are in 2 games together right now, are you aware of this? Go look at Romance of the Three Kingdoms and tell me that my participation in there does not mirror my participation in here. I had an extremely busy stretch of days in which I played no mafia at all. Not here, not there. I did not coast anywhere. It was extremely frustrating to be in two games, but be unable to play in either of them.
And then I am not feigning any confusion. I am not saying I don't know who I'm gonna vote for either. I am voting for Metalmarsh. I have been voting for Meetalmarsh for a long time now. Look at the poll. See my vote on Metalmarsh, and all my posts saying that Metalmarsh is my top suspect to be the serial killer. But then you came in here and dropped this turd of a vote on the poll, so now I'm not sure what to think.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot literally called the SK a distraction from the mafia, so I'd say he was steering thusly. I don't, however, think that's an inspired reason to say he is the serial killer.

How about the other point I raised just prior to that?

[Sloonei]

Whoa hey slow down, what are we all doing right now?

The rationale is in recent posts.

It is wrong and should change.

[Sloonei]

Also note, Sloonei did not call Jay out for also wanting to pursue mafia over the SK on Day 3.

I was unaware that this happened.
I suppose it's fair to say that I was also fishing for a reaction out of metalmarsh with that post I made. I'll go back and see if I got a good one.

[Sloonei]

The marmot has started to separate himself for me, mostly because everyone else has done something to make me believe they are not the serial killer. Metalmarsh has done no such thing.

Can you make a list of these things?

Jay, Golden, and Quin all have given what appear to be serious thought and effort toward finding the serial killer during this phase. insertnamehere has been tunneling too much for me to have believed he's a player just trying to blend in, as a serial killer would.

You've defended yourself, which is what you had to do so I'm not gonna fault you for that, and then helped spin the case against me. It's possible you're a townie and genuinely read me as the serial killer. Insertnamehere's vote really is making me reconsider. It looks terrible to me, again.

[Sloonei]

A lot of the content from Days 2 & 3 is still a mystery to me, if that helps to read me at all. I have not read a lot of stuff and I do not intend to at this time. If I am here later in the game and it becomes relevant, I will check it out.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you make of Golden 2.0's treatment of INH?

[Sloonei]

Another note.

Sloonei raised the point that I didn't want to search for the SK earlier. That was correct. I didn't want to spend the energy looking for a solitary player when a team of 3 is easier to pursue. I did the same thing in Talking Heads. This is not a new strategy for me.

If the best and pretty much most viable method to hunt a SK is to study their nightkills, then doing early game hunts for such a role would probably be fruitless.

I was grasping at straws, okay cool. I'm treating today like Day 1 because the serial killer hunt is essentially a blank slate, and I was filling it in the only way I know how. Please don't base this critical mislynch off of some shit that I was flinging. That would be awful.

[Sloonei]

What do you make of Golden 2.0's treatment of INH?

I've seen it mentioned a lot but I've not observed the things that everyone is talking about. I can go back and look for it if I must.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you make of Golden 2.0's treatment of INH?

I've seen it mentioned a lot but I've not observed the things that everyone is talking about. I can go back and look for it if I must.

Just go into Golden's ISO. It won't be hard to find.

[Sloonei]

Hi everyone

Welcome back Golden. Hopefully, we can not talk each other's head off about strategy gubbins.

I agree. At least now that you know I was good and I know this isn't much different from the Office where you were good, neither of us are reading the other as bad for it (which was really what was causing the tension).

That's not to say I'm assuming you are good, but I don't think I would have voted for you yesterday.

This post is a bit of a contrast to Golden 1.0's last post, where he says that an "inh/metalmarsh team has some merit". It's possible Golden's time in purgatory just caused him to reflect and change his mind on inh, or perhaps he came back in with some sort of information about inh. But then he only lists him as "slight town" on his rainbow.

I understand where he is coming from in this post and have mostly felt the same way. INH's tunneling has been extreme, but I have not been getting sinister vibes from it. If he was the serial killer, I've been thinking, he would not be doing something that makes him stand out so much, and it seems unlikely he'd be going at the biggest and most vocal player in the game the way he has.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

That's the problem. When I judge INH's motives in a vacuum, I don't seem to end up where you're ending up. I see a possible townie and I see a possible serial killer. You don't seem to see the latter as a serious option that warrants at least a passing thought -- which means I have to figure out why that is. Every scenario I can think of features a town INH, but not always a town Golden.

It's possible you're just promoting a read you have. It'd seem rather reckless to do it that way with the game on the line, and I'm not certain you're the type to operate that way.

[Sloonei]

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

That's the problem. When I judge INH's motives in a vacuum, I don't seem to end up where you're ending up. I see a possible townie and I see a possible serial killer. You don't seem to see the latter as a serious option that warrants at least a passing thought -- which means I have to figure out why that is. Every scenario I can think of features a town INH, but not always a town Golden.

It's possible you're just promoting a read you have. It'd seem rather reckless to do it that way with the game on the line, and I'm not certain you're the type to operate that way.

What makes you see a possible serial killer?

[Sloonei]

That's one of those questions that would be much more distressing outside the context of mafia.

[Sloonei]

I see now that inh didn't actually vote for me, he just listed me at the bottom of his rainbow. That also makes me pull back on my suspicion of him a little bit. At first I got the sense that he was just piling on to my bandwagon because I'm an easy target. Now it just seems he's misinformed about me.

[Sloonei]

So let's go back to Metalmarsh! Yeah I probably pulled some bullshit out of the thread to start a case on him, but that's how I'm approaching things right now. We're essentially at Day 1 right now, but with 54 pages to dig through instead of 3. So I went looking for threads to pull at and found a few. Metalmarsh never properly responded to them, I don't think, and instead just pointed out what a contradiction I was making. Which is fair, but I would like some actual discussion about the possibility that he's the serial killer rather than turning it around and saying I must be the serial killer because I tried to bring him up.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

That's the problem. When I judge INH's motives in a vacuum, I don't seem to end up where you're ending up. I see a possible townie and I see a possible serial killer. You don't seem to see the latter as a serious option that warrants at least a passing thought -- which means I have to figure out why that is. Every scenario I can think of features a town INH, but not always a town Golden.

It's possible you're just promoting a read you have. It'd seem rather reckless to do it that way with the game on the line, and I'm not certain you're the type to operate that way.

What makes you see a possible serial killer?

I don't think tunneling on me for 95% of the game is incompatible with serial killer behavior. It'd actually provide a nice route to remain consistently contributory without ruffling the feathers of too many players -- just my feathers. That only threatens him if I actually am mafia and kill him for it, and I don't think that poses a bad gamble. To be fair, this would imply that his constant suspicion of me wasn't always entirely genuine, and that'd be a difficult assertion to take confidence in. I think there's some evidence of that though (suspecting me as much as ever after reywaS flipped scum).

He has turned on that read now, or at least started to, and landed his suspicion upon the player currently leading the tally -- quite near to EOD. That's a little troubling too.

All of you are suspicious and seem genuine simultaneously. Please stop that and step into the light. Thanks.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei, if you do end up mislynched how would you recommend we approach the following day phase?

[Sloonei]

Jay, until you start judging inh's motives instead of mine, you won't make sense of it. You are looking at it backwards.

Anyway, I'm surprised to have checked in before bed and see sloonei as a genuine candidate, but glad because I wanted my vote to be both meaningful and a place where I wanted it and now it hopefully will be. Voting sloonei.

That's the problem. When I judge INH's motives in a vacuum, I don't seem to end up where you're ending up. I see a possible townie and I see a possible serial killer. You don't seem to see the latter as a serious option that warrants at least a passing thought -- which means I have to figure out why that is. Every scenario I can think of features a town INH, but not always a town Golden.

It's possible you're just promoting a read you have. It'd seem rather reckless to do it that way with the game on the line, and I'm not certain you're the type to operate that way.

What makes you see a possible serial killer?

I don't think tunneling on me for 95% of the game is incompatible with serial killer behavior. It'd actually provide a nice route to remain consistently contributory without ruffling the feathers of too many players -- just my feathers. That only threatens him if I actually am mafia and kill him for it, and I don't think that poses a bad gamble. To be fair, this would imply that his constant suspicion of me wasn't always entirely genuine, and that'd be a difficult assertion to take confidence in. I think there's some evidence of that though (suspecting me as much as ever after reywaS flipped scum).

He has turned on that read now, or at least started to, and landed his suspicion upon the player currently leading the tally -- quite near to EOD. That's a little troubling too.

All of you are suspicious and seem genuine simultaneously. Please stop that and step into the light. Thanks.

I can understand this. From what I can remember, he hasn't been under any serious scrutiny other than that brief period at the end of Day 1.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, if you do end up mislynched how would you recommend we approach the following day phase?

Continue on as you have been today, perhaps with just a bit more urgency. I like the way the discussion has flowed, even if it is currently focused in the wrong place. Like I've said a couple times today, I have been approaching it like Day 1 because we're now hunting for one bad guy who could conceivably have left no trace whatsoever the previous 3 days, and the easiest way to catch him will be to make everyone explain what they're doing to catch him. Anyone who has trouble doing that or seems dishonest is a good suspect. And like I said, you, golden, and quin have all seemed to be genuine today. I'm still underwhelmed by Metalmarsh and waffling on INH.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

VOTE METALMARSH89

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei, briefly describe what Quin and Golden have done in this hunt that you like.

[Marmot]

I wouldn't study even if it was over.

I don't start classes for another 2.5 weeks.

Linki: oh hai.

[Marmot]

Another note.

Sloonei raised the point that I didn't want to search for the SK earlier. That was correct. I didn't want to spend the energy looking for a solitary player when a team of 3 is easier to pursue. I did the same thing in Talking Heads. This is not a new strategy for me.

If the best and pretty much most viable method to hunt a SK is to study their nightkills, then doing early game hunts for such a role would probably be fruitless.

I was grasping at straws, okay cool. I'm treating today like Day 1 because the serial killer hunt is essentially a blank slate, and I was filling it in the only way I know how. Please don't base this critical mislynch off of some shit that I was flinging. That would be awful.

Touche.

But I haven't forgotten that you're the one who pooled through the Host Posts to determine who the SK may have nightkilled.

[Marmot]

VOTE METALMARSH89

Two can play that game.

VOTE JAGGEDJIMMYJAY

[Marmot]

Sloonei, if you do end up mislynched how would you recommend we approach the following day phase?

Continue on as you have been today, perhaps with just a bit more urgency. I like the way the discussion has flowed, even if it is currently focused in the wrong place. Like I've said a couple times today, I have been approaching it like Day 1 because we're now hunting for one bad guy who could conceivably have left no trace whatsoever the previous 3 days, and the easiest way to catch him will be to make everyone explain what they're doing to catch him. Anyone who has trouble doing that or seems dishonest is a good suspect. And like I said, you, golden, and quin have all seemed to be genuine today. I'm still underwhelmed by Metalmarsh and waffling on INH.

If you are a mislynch, we are probably in LYLO tomorrow.

And now you see why I didn't want to focus effort on finding the SK yesterday? They are hard to catch!

[Sloonei]

Posts like these from Quin have given me good vibes today: this, this, and this. When pressed to share his reads he was able to do so without any noticeable strain. I am starting to reconsider something, and I'll get to that in a minute. I'm gonna go pull out some similar things from Golden for the sake of explaining myself.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, if you do end up mislynched how would you recommend we approach the following day phase?

Continue on as you have been today, perhaps with just a bit more urgency. I like the way the discussion has flowed, even if it is currently focused in the wrong place. Like I've said a couple times today, I have been approaching it like Day 1 because we're now hunting for one bad guy who could conceivably have left no trace whatsoever the previous 3 days, and the easiest way to catch him will be to make everyone explain what they're doing to catch him. Anyone who has trouble doing that or seems dishonest is a good suspect. And like I said, you, golden, and quin have all seemed to be genuine today. I'm still underwhelmed by Metalmarsh and waffling on INH.

If you are a mislynch, we are probably in LYLO tomorrow.

And now you see why I didn't want to focus effort on finding the SK yesterday? They are hard to catch!

Well we have to catch them, so tell me who you'd go for tomorrow after mislynching me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

VOTE METALMARSH89

Two can play that game.

VOTE JAGGEDJIMMYJAY

Okay. I don't think that vote serves a purpose.

Here's my struggle, bros: my suspicions are more centered on Sloonei and MM than the others, though just marginally (I haven't felt this conflicted about a vote in a long time). Both of you have led the tally recently, and both of you have responded in a way that seems genuine and believable.

However, Sloonei's response is a bit more forensic. I can see the explanation he is providing for his hunting methods, and I think they align with what he has done in this thread (before he or I ever suggested it was what he was doing). MM's response is more emotion-driven: the notion that he wouldn't kill Epignosis. In recent memory, I have been getting burned when I trust those emotion-driven posts and I am less feeling less inclined to operate that way right now with the game on the line.

[Sloonei]

Never mind, here's a thing about Quin I don't really like. I asked him what he's looking for to catch the serial killer, and gave a pretty good answer:

@ Quin: What sort of strategy are you using to hunt for the serial killer? This is a different thing than hunting a regular baddie. I want to know what everyone's doing about it.

I'm searching for passivity. Behaviours that are exhibited for the sake of moving on from the current situation, not for the sake of solving the game.

I'm actually moving towards voting INH from this viewpoint.

BUT in his posts just before that one, he avoided sharing any thoughts on my theory about the serial killer, like he was just trying to move on from it, and not solving the game.

Why is Trump not a role?

Because Hilary isn't (unless there actually is a fourth baddie, but I really doubt it), and they're the spearheads of each faction.

But Trump is at the center of the whole game while Hillary isn't mentioned anywhere in the flavor text. Trump is, and G-man just told us that the flavor posts are intended to "contain game-relevant information". In these posts he tells us that we are all members of Trump's campaign team, and that someone is in here trying to kill Trump himself. To me this suggests that it may not be a straightforward Serial Killer, but an assassin trying to kill one target over the others. Or the flavor text is just flavor text; but G-man just told us it is not. In all of the write ups it is mentioned that Trump was the intended target of the serial killer but other figures "got in the way". Perhaps there is a serial killer that wins the game when they kill the player who has the role of Donald Trump.

Okay. I checked. Hillary was mentioned a few times, just nothing more than just being mentioned.

What are yout thoughts?

'Ehh'

[Sloonei]

I could also see Quin killing Epignosis last night, for what it's worth. Was Quin 2.0 around for Night 2? I believe he was.

[Sloonei]

Here's a Golden post I really like:

Mine is

inh
Jay
Quin
sloonei
MM

He's responding to a question not even directed at him. It's a good look. He did not need to provide this list of reads at all, but he did it anyway.

[Sloonei]

there's plenty more but I'm anxious and don't want to get bogged down in things. All of Golden's posts today suggest to me that he is actively trying to figure out who the serial killer is while he's dealing with serious time constraints.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm looking at Quin stuff. Let's continue this dialogue as long as possible.

[Sloonei]

I'm going to have to duck out for a little bit around noon, but I expect to be back with time to spare.

[Marmot]

VOTE METALMARSH89

Two can play that game.

VOTE JAGGEDJIMMYJAY

Okay. I don't think that vote serves a purpose.

Here's my struggle, bros: my suspicions are more centered on Sloonei and MM than the others, though just marginally (I haven't felt this conflicted about a vote in a long time). Both of you have led the tally recently, and both of you have responded in a way that seems genuine and believable.

However, Sloonei's response is a bit more forensic. I can see the explanation he is providing for his hunting methods, and I think they align with what he has done in this thread (before he or I ever suggested it was what he was doing). MM's response is more emotion-driven: the notion that he wouldn't kill Epignosis. In recent memory, I have been getting burned when I trust those emotion-driven posts and I am less feeling less inclined to operate that way right now with the game on the line.

That's a combination of the emotion and logic. On one hand, I offered personal reasons. On the other hand, I offered a statistical trend that suggests that I am not the SK. Take your pick.

[Marmot]

I'm at work now, so I'll be in and out.