MAD MAX: GAME OVER

[Sloonei]

Is there going to be any activity or we just twiddling our thumbs while waiting for Glorfindel to flip?

Dom is the one I want to talk to, but he's not here. If he shows up I'll have something to talk about. Is there anything you wanted to talk about?

Dom as well. And INH. But neither has been here all day, so it's been tough.
For our sake, let's assume Dom and Glorfindel are both bad. Who is their teammate?

Scotty, although I doubt myself a little when I think about this interaction between him and Glorf.

What do you think?

A part of me could still go for Epi, and LoRab can't he discounted either. I said yesterday that she's a strong town read, but that doesn't eliminate her from suspicion.
The same goes for you. Why is it not you?

Dom's paranoia argument with LoRab could have been an attempt at distancing. I'll look to see how that argument actually developed. I don't have any immediate thoughts about Epi.

It's not me because I brought a strong case against Eloh that had a lot to do with her lynch. It's not me because I've been a consistent town read on nearly everybody's rainbow list and for good reason.

Bussing happens, and Eloh was a prime bussing candidate when you hopped in. After that you are just appealing to consensus, and that's not a hard truth by any means. What is the "good reason" we are all reading you as town?

[insertnamehere]

Just popping in to plop down my random vote of the day on...heh, what do you know.

Glorfindel

Spoiler: show

Will catch up later and present thoughts.

[Quin]

Since I just named pretty much everyone, I recalled my answer to Dom's Question from yesterday and his subsequent response to that answer. I have to ask, did his interpretation of my answer also make no sense to the point of seeming deliberately misinformed to anyone else, or was that another instance where I was simply incredulous to possibility of not being understood?

I am referring to his claim that me saying I'd vote "Glorfindel until further notice" meant "Glorfindel until I die".

I called Dom out on this post a while back. I don't know how 'until further notice' translates to 'until he dies'.

[Quin]

Is there going to be any activity or we just twiddling our thumbs while waiting for Glorfindel to flip?

Dom is the one I want to talk to, but he's not here. If he shows up I'll have something to talk about. Is there anything you wanted to talk about?

Dom as well. And INH. But neither has been here all day, so it's been tough.
For our sake, let's assume Dom and Glorfindel are both bad. Who is their teammate?

Scotty, although I doubt myself a little when I think about this interaction between him and Glorf.

What do you think?

A part of me could still go for Epi, and LoRab can't he discounted either. I said yesterday that she's a strong town read, but that doesn't eliminate her from suspicion.
The same goes for you. Why is it not you?

Dom's paranoia argument with LoRab could have been an attempt at distancing. I'll look to see how that argument actually developed. I don't have any immediate thoughts about Epi.

It's not me because I brought a strong case against Eloh that had a lot to do with her lynch. It's not me because I've been a consistent town read on nearly everybody's rainbow list and for good reason.

Bussing happens, and Eloh was a prime bussing candidate when you hopped in. After that you are just appealing to consensus, and that's not a hard truth by any means. What is the "good reason" we are all reading you as town?

Granted, the opportunity for an Eloh bus existed, but I haven't stopped to revel in any civ cred I earned from her lynch since the fact. I have never stopped scum hunting.

[Sloonei]

Since I just named pretty much everyone, I recalled my answer to Dom's Question from yesterday and his subsequent response to that answer. I have to ask, did his interpretation of my answer also make no sense to the point of seeming deliberately misinformed to anyone else, or was that another instance where I was simply incredulous to possibility of not being understood?

I am referring to his claim that me saying I'd vote "Glorfindel until further notice" meant "Glorfindel until I die".

I called Dom out on this post a while back. I don't know how 'until further notice' translates to 'until he dies'.

Neither do I. Epi came at me because it appeared I was "setting him up" for something by asking him to share reads as soon as the day started. I thought it was odd, but I could at least see an angle where such a suspicion might make sense. But a few of the accusations Dom threw out were downright absurd (no offense), and that is my most glaring concern with him at the moment. I could see it as a frantic baddie who was feeling the lynch pressure and just lashed out at everything. I don't knownenough about Dom's game overall to assess this through a meta lens.

[Sloonei]

Scotty, although I doubt myself a little when I think about this interaction between him and Glorf.

What do you think?

A part of me could still go for Epi, and LoRab can't he discounted either. I said yesterday that she's a strong town read, but that doesn't eliminate her from suspicion.
The same goes for you. Why is it not you?

Dom's paranoia argument with LoRab could have been an attempt at distancing. I'll look to see how that argument actually developed. I don't have any immediate thoughts about Epi.

It's not me because I brought a strong case against Eloh that had a lot to do with her lynch. It's not me because I've been a consistent town read on nearly everybody's rainbow list and for good reason.

Bussing happens, and Eloh was a prime bussing candidate when you hopped in. After that you are just appealing to consensus, and that's not a hard truth by any means. What is the "good reason" we are all reading you as town?

Granted, the opportunity for an Eloh bus existed, but I haven't stopped to revel in any civ cred I earned from her lynch since the fact. I have never stopped scum hunting.

But you just did revel in it for civ cred.

[Quin]

Scotty, although I doubt myself a little when I think about this interaction between him and Glorf.

What do you think?

A part of me could still go for Epi, and LoRab can't he discounted either. I said yesterday that she's a strong town read, but that doesn't eliminate her from suspicion.
The same goes for you. Why is it not you?

Dom's paranoia argument with LoRab could have been an attempt at distancing. I'll look to see how that argument actually developed. I don't have any immediate thoughts about Epi.

It's not me because I brought a strong case against Eloh that had a lot to do with her lynch. It's not me because I've been a consistent town read on nearly everybody's rainbow list and for good reason.

Bussing happens, and Eloh was a prime bussing candidate when you hopped in. After that you are just appealing to consensus, and that's not a hard truth by any means. What is the "good reason" we are all reading you as town?

Granted, the opportunity for an Eloh bus existed, but I haven't stopped to revel in any civ cred I earned from her lynch since the fact. I have never stopped scum hunting.

But you just did revel in it for civ cred.

What about you, Sloonei? Why are you town?

[Glorfindel]

OK, it comes down to this... I'm satisfied that I've done everything I posssibly could've to contribute to this game and my efforts have been (once again for like the fourth or fifth consecutive game) dismissed out of hand... if it wasn't so tragic it would be

[Sloonei]

Scotty, although I doubt myself a little when I think about this interaction between him and Glorf.

What do you think?

A part of me could still go for Epi, and LoRab can't he discounted either. I said yesterday that she's a strong town read, but that doesn't eliminate her from suspicion.
The same goes for you. Why is it not you?

Dom's paranoia argument with LoRab could have been an attempt at distancing. I'll look to see how that argument actually developed. I don't have any immediate thoughts about Epi.

It's not me because I brought a strong case against Eloh that had a lot to do with her lynch. It's not me because I've been a consistent town read on nearly everybody's rainbow list and for good reason.

Bussing happens, and Eloh was a prime bussing candidate when you hopped in. After that you are just appealing to consensus, and that's not a hard truth by any means. What is the "good reason" we are all reading you as town?

Granted, the opportunity for an Eloh bus existed, but I haven't stopped to revel in any civ cred I earned from her lynch since the fact. I have never stopped scum hunting.

But you just did revel in it for civ cred.

What about you, Sloonei? Why are you town?

G-man said so.

[Epignosis]

I didn't do shit this Day phase.

[G-Man]

GIMME DANGER

The dust storm descended upon the town without mercy. Visibility was nonexistent. Outdoors, everything was just a haze of orange and brown. You could almost imagine any horrible thing crawling out of a nightmare and appearing in the shadows of a storm like this. But the townsfolk were already living in a nightmare. And they were working on an escape plan.

Inside the Halls of Justice, the MFP and citizens alike were building something. Using whatever scrap materials they could muster before the dust storm chocked the sun out of the sky, they constructed makeshift gallows. With the storm preventing people from seeing anything coming toward them, it was easy to gather them all up in the courtroom for a day of discussion, debate, democracy, and death.

With their contraption assembled to their liking, the votes were read. Glorfindel protested in elegant prose until his voice gave out on him. Few, if any, were swayed. The townspeople were confident, almost overconfident perhaps. They were so proud of their death machine and proud of their votes. How easily they forgot that pride cometh before a great fall.

The MFP rookies marched Glorfindel onto the platform. It swayed and creaked beneath their feet. They exchanged nervous glances.

"Any last words?" Rookie One asked. Glorfindel opened his mouth and motioned to the dolt. "Oh, right. Your voice gave out."

They put the noose around Glorfindel's head and left the platform. Rookie Two pulled the lever to open the floor beneath the condemned man's feet. As the mechanism engaged, something cracked, another thing popped, and the whole blasted contraption collapsed in on itself before their very eyes.

Everyone just stared at the heap of lumber, rigging, and other miscellaneous parts. A minute later, Glorfindel crawled out from the wreckage, not a scratch on him.

-----------------------------------------------

GLORFINDEL survived the lynch.

It is now Night 7. You have until 8:00 pm US Eastern time to send in your role PMs.

[Epignosis]

Lame.

[Sloonei]

Well that makes me feel better about INH, at least. Glorfindel "survived". INH "was pardoned." Now the question is which of the two survival roles is Glorf? I feel confident that he's the bad one.

[G-Man]

DAY 7

[Glorfindel]

Well that makes me feel better about INH, at least. Glorfindel "survived". INH "was pardoned." Now the question is which of the two survival roles is Glorf? I feel confident that he's the bad one.

I find it very curious that this was the first conclusion to which you jumped my friend

[insertnamehere]

want to join the randomization party, Glorfindel?

OR SHOULD I SAY CUNDALINI!

[insertnamehere]

New order of duty: ISO Glorfindel and analyze his interactions with Sloonei, Dom, Lorab, and Scotty for good measure.

I want this on my desk by Saturday morning. Get to it.

[Sloonei]

Well that makes me feel better about INH, at least. Glorfindel "survived". INH "was pardoned." Now the question is which of the two survival roles is Glorf? I feel confident that he's the bad one.

I find it very curious that this was the first conclusion to which you jumped my friend

Do go on.

[Sloonei]

For the record I've been waiting for another death survival ever since INH's non-flip. I wanted to see if that exact language distinction ("pardoned" vs. "survived") would show up. Now you fail to be lynched, and look what we have! Why is that curious?

[Sloonei]

New order of duty: ISO Glorfindel and analyze his interactions with Sloonei, Dom, Lorab, and Scotty for good measure.

I want this on my desk by Saturday morning. Get to it.

Good plan. Who's gonna do it?

[Sloonei]

Did you expect to survive that lynch, Glorfindel?

[Sloonei]

If Glorfindel is Cundalini, his teammates would have bussed him without fear or hesitation. Lynching him essentially affords them two nightkills for the price of one. Looking at Scotty and Dom in particular, yet again.

[LoRab]

I'm so sorry I missed the lynch vote. I expected to be able to get on this afternoon. But my uncle died today. And, to further complicate life, it's my cousin's Bar Mitzvah this weekend (said uncle's grandson). So, yeah--life is interesting.

I see the lynch as inconclusive. G-Man said earlier that we cannot infer anything from the language of survival and that it won't necessarily be consistent. So...yeah. I don't have any deeper thoughts at the moment.

[Sloonei]

Looking at Dom and Glorf interactions because I'm feeling most skeptical of Dom right now. The first time Dom makes any real game-related acknowledgement of Glorfindel it is here:

at this point, I'm just sitting in the balcony, feeling salty, detached, impotent, and utterly indifferent to this game.

I'm like Statler & Waldorf, combined into one physical body.

#avengeindi #mpdidnothingwrong #boldplay

Who do you think is bad?

Glorfindel.

Honorable mentions to Dom and Lorab. Those are my three biggest suspicions, in that order.

literally why

This is not even a direct address of Glorfindel. They just happen to be named in a trio of possible suspects by INH. I suspect that Dom's "why" is more self-conscious than done out of concern for the other two.

No, I didn't know that the post you quoted even existed.

When did you replace in?

TBH, if you want to make a claim why not research it at all?

That's not what you asked.

And you didn't answer my question(s).

I have a funny way of saying things.

Yes I did.

Did you?
Why expect Epi to have a next suspect to vote when you didn't name one if Glorf was suddenly dead?

Here we go, now he's addressing him by name! This was the start of the Day 6 thing between Dom and myself. But, again, this has nothing to do with Glorfindel as a player, he is just being used here as a figure in the accusation against me. But then in Dom's very next post he makes his first true acknowledgement of Glorf in the game, to list him down in his handful of suspects-- with no explanation given. But then in the next post after that he's back to defending him softly.

Then Dom spins his wild suspicion about my refusal to answer his question, all the while implicitly defending Glorfindel by bashing me over the head with my deliberate attempts to get him lynched ("'Glorfindel til I die'"). So Glorf's name is coming up a lot in his ISO now, but it's only because his name is conveniently there in a case against me that, in retrospect, makes even less sense than it did in the moment.
And even in spite of this he can list Glorfindel (and me) as Bad together on his suspects list:

Dom - civ
Epi - lean civ
Glorf - bad
Inh - civ
JJJ - civ
LoRab - lean bad
Motel - was civ, voitng for me after never mentioning me is :supsish:
Quin - null
Scotty - civ
Sloonei - bad

Something seems contradictory here. Dom is on a crusade (thank you for that word, Epi) against me because I was apparently tunneling Glorfindel beyond reason. But in his eyes, Glorfindel is also bad with me.

He continues to not really give any reason to think Glorfindel is bad while listing him as such. Other notable interactions include this one:

Moved to glorf. I have a meeting in 10 and a shit ton of ppl behind my desk. I'm a bit swayed by Dom's yelling. Not voting Sloonei. Lets try glorf.

For the record who didnt switch to Dom despite reading him bad?

Literally what teh hell

and this:

Voting Dom. I could very well vote Glorf too. So many changed votes makes me wonder if Glorf is actually bad, not around, and his teammates are attempting to stir the pot away from him.

Changed to Wilgy.

What happened here? this was 2 minutes apart

I just took a look at the poll and came to the conclusion that Scotty and Glorfindel's votes look the worst. This pair of posts does not look great for either of them.

I agree. I could vote scotty again in a heartbeat.

"Scotty and Glorfindel look the worst."
"Agreed, let's vote for Scotty."
Because bussing Glorf is fine, but not bussing him is still preferable. If Dom and Glorf are both scum I suppose this would be a slight tick in favor of Scotty.

The only time I see Dom making any reference of a reason to suspect Glorfindel is when he's voicing support of Jay's employment of the Llama Method.

Not a good look for Dom, if Glorfindel is Cundalini.

[Epignosis]

I want to lynch Lorab.

[Sloonei]

I'm so sorry I missed the lynch vote. I expected to be able to get on this afternoon. But my uncle died today. And, to further complicate life, it's my cousin's Bar Mitzvah this weekend (said uncle's grandson). So, yeah--life is interesting.

I see the lynch as inconclusive. G-Man said earlier that we cannot infer anything from the language of survival and that it won't necessarily be consistent. So...yeah. I don't have any deeper thoughts at the moment.

I'm sorry for your loss

I do not think G-man said we can't infer anything from his posts. I think he said the opposite of that. All he said was that there won't be any major game mechanic reveals in his host posts like there were in Red vs. Blue, the earlier game I was referencing. After that, though, he confirms that there will be some information passed into the thread from these posts:

While we're on the subject of G-man's posts, I want to bump this post for fear that it's going to get buried:

Something to keep in mind in this game will be G-Man's host posts. In his last game, Red vs. Blue, be made it clear that his story posts were not just there for flavor, but that they included real hints about the game and we were able to peace together some key game mechanics by analyzing them. That is something we should be keeping an eye out for in this game as well. I've not caught anything yet but if anyone else comes up with anything, shout it out.

Red vs. Blue was unique in that it was a closed setup. That allowed me to reference the secret mechanics that only certain roles knew about. In this game, all relevant mechanics are laid bare and there are no secret components to any roles. Night posts are more about flavor now than they were for RvB but there is some info to be gleaned from them. Probably not as much as you're speculating but there are and will be a few nuggets.

And I think the two failed lynches we've just seen reflect exactly that. INH's failed lynch featured a narrative about a lawyer entering a courtroom and persuading the jury not to convict him (Exactly what Silvertongue's role would do). Glorfindel's featured a rigged hanging mechanism and a chaotic survival, exactly what you'd expect from a baddie role that survives a lynch. I was confident INH was saved by Silvertongue, and now I am damn near positive that Glorfindel was one of the two survival roles.

[Sloonei]

I want to lynch Lorab.

why?

[Epignosis]

I want to lynch Lorab.

why?

[Epignosis]

I really don't. I just thought I'd get a rise out of her.

[Sloonei]

I come back to this thread and what do I find? Isn't this just charming... Seriously, if I'm the best you guys can come up with, we're in more trouble than I could've imagined...

I've literally read next to nothing that's been posted this Day phase so on the basis of my inability to make an informed decision right now, self preservation will determine my vote.

Emotional manipulation doesn't play well.

I've voted you at the moment for self preservation.

Would you grant me the courtesy, my friend of explaining on what level you see the content of my post as 'emotional manipulation'?

This is Glorfindel's first game-related acknowledgement of Dom. I suppose I should take back what I said about Dom never offering a reason to suspect Glorfindel, as he quietly does here. After that, this is the only noteworthy mention he makes of Dom, and the promise to review and share his thoughts has gone unfulfilled.

[Sloonei]

Is LoRab's skepticism toward host post revelations characteristic of her, or is that something I should take note of?

[Glorfindel]

want to join the randomization party, Glorfindel?

OR SHOULD I SAY CUNDALINI!

NO, I do not, my friend! You need to take a seat, Buddy. It's people with judgement like yours that put us in this mess in the first place

[Glorfindel]

Did you expect to survive that lynch, Glorfindel?

The question that needs to be answered here, my friend is this:

You were intent on lynching me for practically all of the last Day phase. One of the reasons you used was my failure to respond to your (incredibly vague) request for me to address his response to my ISO analysis of him. Once you made your request explicit, I did as you asked. He never came back to do so before EoD and you seemed quite satisfied to let that slide by. Please explain to me why you seem to apply different standards to Scotty over me. Why does it seem that you accept vague, glib responses from him as bona fide accusations and yet I can put before you a (reasonably solid case) and you brush it aside. Now, again you appear to have automatically assumed my guilt. Enough with interrogating me, I think you need to ask yourself if you're even capable of being objective any longer.

[Sloonei]

Did you expect to survive that lynch, Glorfindel?

The question that needs to be answered here, my friend is this:

You were intent on lynching me for practically all of the last Day phase. One of the reasons you used was my failure to respond to your (incredibly vague) request for me to address his response to my ISO analysis of him. Once you made your request explicit, I did as you asked. He never came back to do so before EoD and you seemed quite satisfied to let that slide by. Please explain to me why you seem to apply different standards to Scotty over me. Why does it seem that you accept vague, glib responses from him as bona fide accusations and yet I can put before you a (reasonably solid case) and you brush it aside. Now, again you appear to have automatically assumed my guilt. Enough with interrogating me, I think you need to ask yourself if you're even capable of being objective any longer.

I am still waiting for Scotty's response. I am not going to dismiss my growing confidence that you are bad just because Scotty is absent. I think his responses to your case against hin have been reasonable and, at the very least, on point. You have stuck to defending yourself by saying he is not saying anything substantial when it is really the opposite. You're just dumping shade on Scotty right now and I think his posts look a lot more townie than yours.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Glorfindel:

What is your read on INH right now?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm sorry for your loss, LoRab. Mafia is not important, just do your best.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This is how the breakdown makes sense for me.

Possible INH roles:

Jim Goose -- technically possible but I would say unlikely. His vote wouldn't be worthless, which would mean he would have no reason to get into this randomization shtick. He'd be a townie with a reason to invest in his votes.

Silvertongue -- technically possible and also probable. The only player in the game likely to prevent INH's lynch is INH himself. His voting behavior suggests he has no voting power, and the host post implied outside influence.

Cundalini -- technically possible and at least worth consideration. The lynch is prevented by default and his voting power is eliminated.

~~~

Possible Glorfindel roles:

Jim Goose -- technically possible and at least worth consideration. We know nothing of his voting power right now.

Silvertongue -- technically possible but I would say unlikely. This would mean he deliberately prevented INH's lynch immediately after having placed the deciding vote to secure that same lynch. This doesn't make sense. We're also able to discount a scenario where Glorfindel is Silvertongue and did not save INH if we trust the notion that G-Man's host posts at least shed light on which is which. I think we have better reason for that now.

Cundalini -- techincally possible and also probable by process of elimination. The only other scenario available would be Glorfindel | Jim Goose and INH | Cundalini. This seems unlikely given that nobody other than Glorfindel has strongly opposed the idea that INH is Silvertongue.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Perhaps I can make it more clear another way. I'll rank all of the possible combinations:

1. INH | Silvertongue / Glorfindel | Cundalini -- It fits the host posts and INH's voting behavior. A motive is visible for Glorfindel to resist INH being seen as Silvertongue.

2. INH | Silvertongue / Glorfindel | Jim Goose -- It fits the host posts and INH's voting behavior. It's hard to understand why Glorfindel would so strongly oppose the theory that INH was Silvertongue in this scenario.

3. INH | Cundalini / Glorfindel | Silvertongue -- unlikely if host posts are taken at face value. This requires Glorfindel to save INH, which makes little sense given his lynch-sealing vote.

4. INH | Cundalini / Glorfindel | Jim Goose -- unlikely if host posts are taken at face value. INH was "pardoned" and Glorfindel "survived", but both of these roles would best fit "survived".

5. INH | Jim Goose / Glorfindel | Cundalini -- unlikely if host posts are taken at face value. INH was "pardoned" and Glorfindel "survived", but both of these roles would best fit "survived". Also doesn't fit INH's voting behavior.

6. INH | Jim Goose / Glorfindel | Silvertongue -- unlikely if host posts are taken at face value. INH was "pardoned" and Glorfindel "survived", but both of these roles would best fit "survived". This also requires Glorfindel to save INH, which makes little sense given his lynch-sealing vote. Also doesn't fit INH's voting behavior.

[Sloonei]

I think we need to lynch Glorfindel again tomorrow. But while doing so, we should work to figure out who to lynch next.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If there's a night kill we'll be in LyLo, so there's no margin for error. All townies on full alert.

[Glorfindel]

This is how the breakdown makes sense for me.

Possible Glorfindel roles:

Cundalini -- techincally possible and also probable by process of elimination. The only other scenario available would be Glorfindel | Jim Goose and INH | Cundalini. This seems unlikely given that nobody other than Glorfindel has strongly opposed the idea that INH is Silvertongue.

Question time for you, Jay. Please explain the 'process of elimination' to which you referred above that led you to this 'probable' conclusion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This is how the breakdown makes sense for me.

Possible Glorfindel roles:

Cundalini -- techincally possible and also probable by process of elimination. The only other scenario available would be Glorfindel | Jim Goose and INH | Cundalini. This seems unlikely given that nobody other than Glorfindel has strongly opposed the idea that INH is Silvertongue.

Question time for you, Jay. Please explain the 'process of elimination' to which you referred above that led you to this 'probable' conclusion.

I think I was able to more clearly state how I arrived there in my next post where I ranked the possibilities. For each option I listed the evidence against them where applicable.

[Glorfindel]

This is how the breakdown makes sense for me.

Possible Glorfindel roles:

Cundalini -- techincally possible and also probable by process of elimination. The only other scenario available would be Glorfindel | Jim Goose and INH | Cundalini. This seems unlikely given that nobody other than Glorfindel has strongly opposed the idea that INH is Silvertongue.

Question time for you, Jay. Please explain the 'process of elimination' to which you referred above that led you to this 'probable' conclusion.

I think I was able to more clearly state how I arrived there in my next post where I ranked the possibilities. For each option I listed the evidence against them where applicable.

Let me try that again, can you please explain:
1) How INH's role is in any way an indicator or predictor or my role?
2) What you mean precisely by your reference to "it fits the Host's posts"? And by that, I mean in all circumstances where you used that wording.

Thank you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Let me try that again, can you please explain:

1) How INH's role is in any way an indicator or predictor or my role?

I wouldn't call it a "predictor", but it is an indicator. Both of you survived lynches, and there are only three roles in this game that make that possible. The purpose of my work is to determine which of those three roles each of of you has, in addition to alternative possibilities, and then judge what possible combinations make the most sense. If INH is one role, you must be one of the other two.

The only other option is to suggest that either of you is none of the three roles and was saved by someone else who must be Silvertongue. This doesn't seem to work though, because there was nobody in the game who would be likely to do that in either failed lynch. I don't know who on this game roster would have prevented your lynch other than you, and I don't know anyone who would have prevented INH's lynch other than him.

2) What you mean precisely by your reference to "it fits the Host's posts"? And by that, I mean in all circumstances where you used that wording.

G-Man has said in this game that there are going to be some small clues in his host posts which might explain certain events in the game. The two failed lynches are a good example, because they were described in very different ways in their respective host posts.

When INH's lynch failed, the host post told a story of a specific person railing against his detractors to save him -- suggesting the involvement of Silvertongue. When your lynch failed, the host post referred only to the mechanism trying to lynch you (the gallows) failing to function -- suggesting a role that is lynchproof.

[Glorfindel]

Let me try that again, can you please explain:

1) How INH's role is in any way an indicator or predictor or my role?

I wouldn't call it a "predictor", but it is an indicator. Both of you survived lynches, and there are only three roles in this game that make that possible. The purpose of my work is to determine which of those three roles each of of you has, in addition to alternative possibilities, and then judge what possible combinations make the most sense. If INH is one role, you must be one of the other two.

The only other option is to suggest that either of you is none of the three roles and was saved by someone else who must be Silvertongue. This doesn't seem to work though, because there was nobody in the game who would be likely to do that in either failed lynch. I don't know who on this game roster would have prevented your lynch other than you, and I don't know anyone who would have prevented INH's lynch other than him.

2) What you mean precisely by your reference to "it fits the Host's posts"? And by that, I mean in all circumstances where you used that wording.

G-Man has said in this game that there are going to be some small clues in his host posts which might explain certain events in the game. The two failed lynches are a good example, because they were described in very different ways in their respective host posts.

When INH's lynch failed, the host post told a story of a specific person railing against his detractors to save him -- suggesting the involvement of Silvertongue. When your lynch failed, the host post referred only to the mechanism trying to lynch you (the gallows) failing to function -- suggesting a role that is lynchproof.

Thank you very much for that explanation, Jay. I appreciate the effort to which you've gone to indulge me but please allow me to return to my original question.

After all your analysis above, you came to THIS outcome:

Cundalini -- techincally possible and also probable by process of elimination.

I'd like to know what 'process of elimination' you used to arrive at this 'probable' outcome. In considering other alternatives, you said yourself in the VERY SAME post:

Jim Goose -- technically possible and at least worth consideration. We know nothing of his voting power right now.

My prospective 'voting power' is the sole determining factor here and despite having no knowledge of this factor (by your own admission) you judge this option as simply "worthy of consideration" and yet are prepared to state in the same breath that the alternate view is 'probable'. This is not the kind of balanced approach I'd have expected from you at all Jay. Our position is now perilous and if you intend to adopt the same stubborn and bloody-minded approach as others in this game, it may as well be game over!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I called that the second most likely possibility: INH as Silvertongue and you as Jim Goose. The thing that confuses me in that scenario is the you were pretty strongly opposed to the idea that INH was Silvertongue. If you're Jim Goose, why would that be?

I also explained why I don't believe you're Jim Goose and he's Cundalini. That doesn't mesh with the host posts.

[Glorfindel]

I called that the second most likely possibility: INH as Silvertongue and you as Jim Goose. The thing that confuses me in that scenario is the you were pretty strongly opposed to the idea that INH was Silvertongue. If you're Jim Goose, why would that be?

I also explained why I don't believe you're Jim Goose and he's Cundalini. That doesn't mesh with the host posts.

Did I 'strongly oppose' the scenario of INH being Silvertongue though, Jay? At the EoD 4, I seem to recall some pretty far fetched theories being tossed around and the one I proposed I genuinely didn't think (based on my personal experience) at the time was all that left-field

If you wouldn't mind, Jay - I'd also like you to clarify something else for me. In your post above you said:

G-Man has said in this game that there are going to be some small clues in his host posts which might explain certain events in the game.

Please forgive me if I'm mistaken but I believe what he said was:

I reserve the right to be as specific or vague in each lynch and night post as I choose to be.

I'm sorry, but your interpretation of that remark is certainly not how I'd interpret it...

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I called that the second most likely possibility: INH as Silvertongue and you as Jim Goose. The thing that confuses me in that scenario is the you were pretty strongly opposed to the idea that INH was Silvertongue. If you're Jim Goose, why would that be?

I also explained why I don't believe you're Jim Goose and he's Cundalini. That doesn't mesh with the host posts.

Did I 'strongly oppose' the scenario of INH being Silvertongue though, Jay? At the EoD 4, I seem to recall some pretty far fetched theories being tossed around and the one I proposed I genuinely didn't think (based on my personal experience) at the time was all that left-field

You promoted the idea more than anyone else did. The following is one post, but not the only post:

Because, just maybe, someone out there BELIEVED in him. As I think Jay mentioned earlier, this game is a little too tight for comfort. Who knows if they (Silvertongue) would even be around later to use it? I don't expect you to believe this but there ARE players out there who would sacrifice that ability if they genuinely believed INH to be innocent (in their situation, I'd have done that myself for someone who I felt strongly was being railroaded). It has the added chance (probability-wise) of buying us another day so in answer to your question, yes, I still believe it is the most likely scenario.

The highlighted portion raises a new problem. You claimed then that you'd have saved INH if you could have, but your vote was the one that secured his lynch in the first place. How does that make sense?

If you wouldn't mind, Jay - I'd also like you to clarify something else for me. In your post above you said:

G-Man has said in this game that there are going to be some small clues in his host posts which might explain certain events in the game.

Please forgive me if I'm mistaken but I believe what he said was:

I reserve the right to be as specific or vague in each lynch and night post as I choose to be.

I'm sorry, but your interpretation of that remark is certainly not how I'd interpret it...

Red vs. Blue was unique in that it was a closed setup. That allowed me to reference the secret mechanics that only certain roles knew about. In this game, all relevant mechanics are laid bare and there are no secret components to any roles. Night posts are more about flavor now than they were for RvB but there is some info to be gleaned from them. Probably not as much as you're speculating but there are and will be a few nuggets.

[Dom]

jjj i can see your perspective, but you're wrong. i'm civ.

Why did you have so little to say about Glorf on Days 1-5?

idk tbh
Honestly, because I found nothing of note. It's not a good answer, or a helpful one, but it's a true one.

That Dom is still riding the Scotty train to Nowheresville with Glorf should say enough.

Funny enough, I have been feeling great about Sloon this phase and less so about Epi 2.0. I would entreat someone with more time to look at Quin as well, but I'm feeling pretty great about the prospect of a Glorf/Dom/Epi 2.0 right now.

Epi 2.0 gave Glorf ample time to right the ship, parking his vote on JJJ, but Glorf's refusal to lie forced him to change it.

Dom, I'm still not sure why you haven't changed your vote to Glorf if you are trying to salvage any shred of civness.

I dunno guys but I'm feelin pretty good shot our prospects with at least the next 2 lynches and maybe the game.

Also, I'll go ahead and say I am in no way or shape a Skag.

Scotty, throughout this day phase, spread lies. At this point, and all his subsequent votes, I HAD changed my vote to Glorfindel. This post is so bad. May i also say that scotty still hasn't answered why I would have been a "poor" choice for a lynch from a few days ago. How does he KNOW that and how does he square that with his current position on me.

Why is Dom's paranoia scum paranoia and not town paranoia?

tbh what paranoia.




on the contradictory note on my position on glorfindel, i don't think his overly friendly tone is a reason to suspect him. i think his penchant for telling the truth is.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I discussed your paranoia in the post right before Sloonei asked that question, Dom. I think you have irrefutably exhibited paranoia.