MAD MAX: GAME OVER

#3751

In conclusion of my spam: I think most of the dynamics favor Dom being a baddie, but there is at least one I want to hear about:

Elohcin / Epignosis / Glorfindel / LoRab

#3752

A big reservation that I have with the LoRab/Epi/zebra scum pairing is that there also town roles with BTSC. It's entirely possible we have an in tact pair still alive in this game, I think. If there is a connection sensed between them but they are otherwise clean, that could be it.

#3753

Although it would presumably taken anyone a while to form a BTSC link, and they seem to have towning on each other from Day 1.

#3754

Moved my vote back to Glorfindel. There's no reason not to lynch him today.

#3755

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:In conclusion of my spam: I think most of the dynamics favor Dom being a baddie, but there is at least one I want to hear about:

Elohcin / Epignosis / Glorfindel / LoRab

How confident are you that Dom is bad?

#3756

Sloonei wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:In conclusion of my spam: I think most of the dynamics favor Dom being a baddie, but there is at least one I want to hear about:

Elohcin / Epignosis / Glorfindel / LoRab
How confident are you that Dom is bad?

60/40 or so.

My lead candidate for the last baddie is Epignosis regardless. I'm getting this vibe:

Epignosis wrote:I didn't even try to be a civilian in this one.

#3757

I really hope that whatever Dom is currently dealing with works out, but the fact remains that if he's not here to have a real conversation with me there's no way my scum read of him is going anywhere.

Hopefully LoRab has the opportunity to check in as well, I'd like to know her current thoughts, because she seems at least resistant to the idea of Glorfindel being bad. It's something to talk about. I'd especially like to know her thoughts about the 'cleared' townies, 3J and INH.

#3758

I also probably won't be around until the very end of EoD once I go to bed tonight. I have MY LAST EXAM FOR MY UNI DEGREE

at 8:30 which runs through until 10:30 (30 minutes before EoD), so I'll be actively avoiding this that morning for some last minute cramming.

#3759

Sloonei wrote:Moved my vote back to Glorfindel. There's no reason not to lynch him today.

If he's Cundalini, this isn't LyLo. G-Man's post affirms that the game isn't over if the baddies don't have the ability to at least tie the tally, and they don't in 3v3. This also applies if INH is Cundalini. I think this means we literally shouldn't lynch Glorfindel.

#3760

Wait a minute. Wrong. Silvertongue can't vote either.

Lynch Glorfindel.

#3761

The lynch Epignosis for originally suggesting this.

#3762

Ugh wait. It's 5 vs. 3, potentially with both sides having a voteless player. That means the voting power would be 4 vs. 2.

1. Lynch Cundalini, and it stays 4 vs. 2, and then potentially goes to 3 vs. 2 after the night kill.

2. Lynch a non-Cundalini baddie, and it goes to 4 vs. 1, and then potentially 3 vs. 1 after the night kill.

3. Lynch a non-Silvertongue townie, and it goes to 3 vs. 2, and then potentially 2 vs. 2 after the night kill (town loss).

The other variable in play is a protector if they're still alive.

#1 is the safest. #2 is the biggest gain. #3 is the biggest mistake. I think we're better off with #1. We can still trust our ability to make reads beyond that point.

#3763

Everything is coming back to Dom for me. It's hard to wrap my head around 2 of the remaining 3 suspects that aren't him being bad, but it's not impossible and I keep worrying that Dom is just the lowest hanging fruit on the tree. I am leaning toward Epi as the final baddie if Dom is also bad. Zebra looked good but she has thoroughly fooled me before, and Epi has been less good since subbing in. I can also see the potential pairing with LoRab if Dom is actually good, but we might be able to reach that point if we mislynch along the way.

What does everyone think we should do on Day 9?

#3764

A mislynch loses the game every time except when a hypothetical protector stops a kill. We don't even know if there still is a protector.

#3765

I think it's also important that Zebra looked good despite being wrong about nearly everything. That can happen to townies, but the potential for "WIFOM served in gallons" should not be ignored.

#3766

Given that a mislynch can easily lose the game, I think it would be very dangerous to lynch Dom today.

#3767

Keep in mind that a night kill is likely to follow the Glorfindel lynch which will narrow the suspect pool further. Let the baddies do our work.

#3768

I won't be here at all until the deadline. My vote's staying on Glorfindel and lynching him is the safest option. I encourage others to pile on.

#3769

Given we're likely in LyLo-- Epig wants to lynch someone other than Glorfindel because it would end the game.

#3770

do it for her motel room

#3771

You can tell by all the noise that the deadline is approaching.

#3772

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The lynch Epignosis for originally suggesting this.

Knock yourself out chief. There's nothing wrong with offering an alternative use of Day 8. I don't have any problem with Glorfindel being lynched because he has to be eventually, but voting Glorfindel if he's Cundalini is effectively voting for a no lynch. He serves no function at this stage. No power and no vote. I would rather remove someone who has a vote or, ideally, someone who has a vote and has the block. Lynching Glorfindel brings things back around to what it is today- get the lynch right or lose. If Dom is bad and I am right, then the outlook significantly improves. If I'm wrong, well shit good game I blew it isn't the first time won't be the last. But I don't think I am.

Dom wrote:Given we're likely in LyLo-- Epig wants to lynch someone other than Glorfindel because it would end the game.

This statement is patently false. If one of Glorfindel's teammates is lynched, then things are significantly better for civilians going into Day 9. If Glorfindel is lynched, then Day 9 is a repeat of Day 8.

And I don't believe lynching you will end anything but your role's existence.

#3773

Epignosis wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The lynch Epignosis for originally suggesting this.
Knock yourself out chief. There's nothing wrong with offering an alternative use of Day 8. I don't have any problem with Glorfindel being lynched because he has to be eventually, but voting Glorfindel if he's Cundalini is effectively voting for a no lynch. He serves no function at this stage. No power and no vote. I would rather remove someone who has a vote or, ideally, someone who has a vote and has the block. Lynching Glorfindel brings things back around to what it is today- get the lynch right or lose. If Dom is bad and I am right, then the outlook significantly improves. If I'm wrong, well shit good game I blew it isn't the first time won't be the last. But I don't think I am.

Dom wrote:Given we're likely in LyLo-- Epig wants to lynch someone other than Glorfindel because it would end the game.
This statement is patently false. If one of Glorfindel's teammates is lynched, then things are significantly better for civilians going into Day 9. If Glorfindel is lynched, then Day 9 is a repeat of Day 8.

And I don't believe lynching you will end anything but your role's existence.

Now incorporate the existence of Silvertongue into this logic and make the post again.

#3774

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:The lynch Epignosis for originally suggesting this.
Knock yourself out chief. There's nothing wrong with offering an alternative use of Day 8. I don't have any problem with Glorfindel being lynched because he has to be eventually, but voting Glorfindel if he's Cundalini is effectively voting for a no lynch. He serves no function at this stage. No power and no vote. I would rather remove someone who has a vote or, ideally, someone who has a vote and has the block. Lynching Glorfindel brings things back around to what it is today- get the lynch right or lose. If Dom is bad and I am right, then the outlook significantly improves. If I'm wrong, well shit good game I blew it isn't the first time won't be the last. But I don't think I am.

Dom wrote:Given we're likely in LyLo-- Epig wants to lynch someone other than Glorfindel because it would end the game.
This statement is patently false. If one of Glorfindel's teammates is lynched, then things are significantly better for civilians going into Day 9. If Glorfindel is lynched, then Day 9 is a repeat of Day 8.

And I don't believe lynching you will end anything but your role's existence.
Now incorporate the existence of Silvertongue into this logic and make the post again.

I don't follow.

#3775

Lynching Glorfindel now, if he's bad (still not 100% on that, but I have no better ideas), guarantees we survive one more cycle. That enables another phase of night actions to occur. That might just mean someone gets killed -- and when the baddies are willing to kill Scotty, that can genuinely be helpful for process of elimination. It might mean someone gets protected and then confirmed like I was. Worst case scenario the game continues on, and we can still try to lynch the remaining two baddies after Glorfindel. Best case scenario we gain more critical information to help figure it out and possibly even prolong the game.

I agree that lynching a team mate of Cundalini now would be better than lynching the role itself. I'm sure as hell not confident enough in any reads to take that risk now though. It doesn't seem necessary to me -- indeed it seems like betting the game on a hunch just to get it over with sooner.

linki: Never mind. You kind of did when you acknowledged that lynching a good Dom would mean game over.

#3776

I'd like to suggest that voters make the responsible, safe, and deeply establishment choice instead of risking it all on an utterly unproven candidate who has little to no appropriate attributes for the office, I mean for the scum team, just to "shake things up."

Please vote Glorfindel.

I myself am voting for... 3J

Spoiler: show

#3777

I am here.

#3778

Welp. Poll over. *shrugs*

#3779

Stealth self-vote from Glorf.

Didn't he say in an earlier game that he hates being a baddie?

#3780

Ninja'd by the Daylight Savings Switch. Fancy that. Lynch post in 50 minutes or so.

#3781

YOUR PRETTY FACE IS GOING TO HELL

After Scotty 2.0's remains were removed from little Timmy's doorstep and the dust storm gone, the townsfolk got right back to work. There was some discussion about other options and strategy but that didn't last long. No one felt inspired to take their eyes off the prize. Glorfindel wasn't accustomed to being viewed as a prize of the masses, so the repeat attention was new for him.

They came for him quickly and he put up the scantest of fights when taken into custody. He was marched into the Halls of Justice for another trial (or kangaroo court, depending on your perspective). Evidence was laid out before the jury, with particular emphasis on his survival the previous day. Only a few people seemed capable of such a survival and the prosecution did not believe Glorfindel to be Jim Goose. They were so confident that they called the accused to take the stand.

When asked to raise his right hand, however, the court descended into chaos. For Glorfindel did not come out of the previous lynch entirely unscathed as was previously thought. He raised his right arm but his hand was missing. All pleasantries flew right out the window. Jim Goose would not lose a hand, so it was clear that Glorfindel was up to no good. The judge ordered the guards to seize this obvious criminal.

Glorfindel didn't have time to repent for his sins. He didn't have time to explain how a broken home led to his turning to a life of crime, violence, and borderline insanity riding around the desert with the likes of Toecutter. No, the MFP rookies gave him no time to speak on his own behalf. After even the slightest struggle with the guards, one of the rookies pistol-whipped him just as happened with Commissioner Labatouche. With a similar crunch, Glorfindel's life was extinguished.

-----------------------------------------

GLORFINDEL has been lynched. He was CUNDALINI.

It is now Night 8. You have until 8:00 pm US Eastern time to send me your role PMs.

#3782

#3783

Alright. We live to fight another day. INH is 97% confirmed town.

#3784

insertnamehere wrote:Stealth self-vote from Glorf.

Didn't he say in an earlier game that he hates being a baddie?

Indeed I did, my friend and I do. I'm genuinely sorry to everyone who believed in me but whom I let down. Thanks for the game Guys

#3785

Good game, Matty. You played well.

#3786

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Good game, Matty. You played well.

That means a lot coming from you, Jay. Thank you

#3787

Lynch two more and it's a town win. I know that's a difficult task, but it's attainable. We have two confirmed townies already you can cross off the list, and a wealth of thread evidence to sort out everyone else. I hope we can cooperatively find the motivation to give it our best shot as a town team.

Sloonei, for example... I think everyone around here recognizes your capabilities as a player, but your banner block remains barren. This is your opportunity to finally change that. Show me your fire.

#3788

Dom is the easy choice. That doesn't mean he's the wrong choice, but it'd be nice if we could work together to fully assess everyone else instead of just defaulting to that lynch. I know least three of you non-INH people are townies. Let's go. *shakes pom poms*

#3789

I never looked at Glorfindel's interactions with Sloonei, so...

Glorfindel:

Spoiler: show

Probably not relevant.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel wrote:
Sloonei wrote:Are you caught up enough to offer any reads, Glorf?
Funny you should ask, my friend - I was just ISOing you . I seem to recall reading a number of suspicions levelled at you so I thought you might be a good place to start.

Back in Ro3K, I remember when you replaced in, I got a pretty strong Town read on you then on the basis of your (initial) posts but as the game went on, it seemed to me that you became less involved and I grew somewhat less convinced of your Town alignment but my intuition proved accurate. Comparing your performance to this game, you seem consistently involved at a level to dispel any concerns in that regard. You questioned Mac's alignment (legitimately in my opinion) and I assume that is where some of the subsequent accusations against you have started.

I liked the fact that you resisted the Scotty push Day 1 and you seemed consistent in your accusations against Elohcin (although I confess your basis for those accusations - her interactions with Neil - seems a little thin to me...). Day 2 you raised concerns about INH's MP eulogy. I don't know if you're onto something here or not - I'll look at INH in greater depth later).

I do like your non-acceptance of the case against Ricochet and am concerned at the heat you received from DrWilgy as a consequence. You expressed concerns about MP and seemed to refocus on Eloh. This is probably the one post of yours that concerns me most:
Sloonei wrote:I still can't tell if Mac is being antagonistic because he's Mac or because he's scum. I laughed at more of his posts than anyone else's, so I'm giving him a town read on that alone.
Everything else aside, I think this is a terrible reason upon which to base a judgement of anyone's innocence.

And back to Elohcin...

From my perspective after having considered your posts and behaviour, I'd be satisfied to place you in my 'Town pile' for the time being. I sense a genuineness in your comments, arguments and conclusions (not saying that I agree with them at all) that gives me some comfort about you in this game.

Sloonei prompted Glorfindel for reads, and Glorf took the opportunity to provide a pretty substantive town read on Sloonei himself. This could be a laborious effort to support a team mate or a more blatant attempt to pocket -- hard to tell.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel was glad to follow Sloonei's lead on the LoRab counterwagon against his team mate Elohcin. I do think there's room to suspect that Sloonei was the deliberate driver of keeping Elohcin alive, serving as the sort of public baddie strategic leader. That might be a bit tinfoil.

Spoiler: show

He gives Sloonei all the credit for his LoRab vote and reiterates his strong town read despite the result of the lynch -- he actually used the word "mistaken" here to refer to Sloonei's read of LoRab, which I think strongly implies LoRab is town. That's one of the most conclusive things I've found in the game actually.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel's defenses and support of Sloonei are strong and blatant. I find myself wondering if he'd be more careful when dealing with a team mate.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel's tiebreaker controversy on Day 4 was originally brought out by Sloonei. He wasn't really accusatory about it though.

That time Glorfindel looked like he was ISOing Sloonei, but his conclusion was about motel room -- dunno what to do with this

Spoiler: show

I think this claim can be believed even though Glorfindel was bad, and it doesn't say anything to me about Sloonei.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel's despair in the face of Sloonei's Day 5 suspicion looks similar to his treatment of me, so that might be a decent look for Sloonei. Sloonei was somewhat forgiving later in the dialogue, but I do like the questions he was asking.

Thoroughly answers Sloonei's request for thoughts on Scotty 2.0

I'll say that Glorfindel was consistently interested in offering Sloonei very thick responses to prompts that he didn't always give to other players making similar requests.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel crammed this in here for some reason. It isn't relevant. Sloonei didn't like the post and Glorfindel tried to assuage his concerns. Again.

Spoiler: show

Glorfindel was either trying his hardest to pocket Sloonei, or he was playing into the town credit of his team's leader.

Spoiler: show

He's forgiving of Sloonei for suspecting him but suggests he's asleep at the wheel (ellipsis...).

Spoiler: show

Questioning Sloonei's objectivity is a lot closer to his treatment of me for my suspicion of him, so that's a nice thing.

~~~

I'll look at the interactions from Sloonei's side in a separate post. So many posts.

#3790

Eek. Sorry I missed the lynch. Heading home in the morning, funeral stuff done now (and Bar Mitzvah stuff) and business travel over for a while, so should be back to normal. I'd have likely voted for Glorf in the end--reading through, the reasons were compelling.

I cannot wait to see how Elo managed to not know that one of her teammates hadn't been replaced, though. Because that gave me a whole lot of hesitation.

And even I have to admit that INH is almost certainly civ at this point.

#3791

Sloonei posts about Glorfindel:

Spoiler: show

Waffle.

Yellow on the Day 2 rainbow, Elohcin red

Spoiler: show

Waffles. I don't necessarily think these look bad at face value, but they're worth keeping track of.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei probably could have given a better effort to get a read on Glorfindel early in the game.

Spoiler: show

Ew.

Spoiler: show

Softball prods.

Spoiler: show

2 for 4, beetch.

Spoiler: show

Acknowledges something strange about Glorfindel's discussion of MFP roles potentially targeting Rico, but doesn't qualify further.

Still yellow on a Night 3 rainbow -- Sloonei's read of Glorfindel never seemed to go anywhere early in the game.

Spoiler: show

I gave Glorfindel town credit for derp reasons and Sloonei agreed (so did LoRab).

Sloonei gives INH crap for his treatment of Glorfindel

Prompts DrWilgy for thoughts on Glorfindel after their tiebreaker mixup

Green on a Day 5 rainbow

Spoiler: show

Interrogative on Night 5.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei's turn against Glorfindel was abrupt and forceful.

Later on Day 6, Sloonei did a full ISO and emerged with a light town read

Gives Glorfindel more credit than Wilgy for his behavior during their tiebreaker mixup

Day 6 GTH town read

Light green on a Day 6 rainbow

Spoiler: show

For this, Sloonei was specifically prompted with explaining what makes Glorfindel town (INH and I were doing an exercise with him covering each player for the same prompt). I would note though that Sloonei's given reason is actually a good reason to read Glorfindel as bad.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei is forgiving of Glorfindel's absence during the drama at EOD 6.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei's read on Glorfindel was very fluid in that it moved up and down quite a bit. I don't think inconsistency is a bad thing. I might actually like it.

Glorfindel gets his own waffly yellow position on a late Day 6 rainbow / Later he added Wilgy as a suspect below Glorfindel

Spoiler: show

Sloonei: do you remember why this interested you?

Didn't like Glorfindel's evasion of my pointed "lie" questions

Sloonei kind of answers my prior question. -- he is kinder to Scotty than Glorfindel here. / More.

Spoiler: show

#3792

LoRab wrote:And even I have to admit that INH is almost certainly civ at this point.

#3793

Hey INH: you were on the money with your Glorfindel read earlier than the rest of us. Is there anyone you feel is particularly likely to be his team mate?

#3794

Things Quin has never done in his life:

1. Vote for Glorfindel

#3795

I feel strongly enough about this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Spoiler: show
Glorfindel wrote:I have some recollection of someone expressing concern at my vote at the end od Day 3 so I'm happy to address that matter here. By the time I got on here, EoD was imminent and after skimming the recent posts at that time, the leading wagons were Elohcin and LoRab with a minor wagon on Sprityo. I wanted my vote to count for something and felt compelled to make a judgement between Elohcin and LoRab. Whilst the result turned out well for us, I never really could see the validity of the argument against Elohcin (I thought the assertion that she NK'd Epi on the basis of their personal relationship - two mature, intelligent long term members of this site unable to separate their Mafia gaming activities - to be frankly bordering on the absurd) and I was enamoured by Sloonei's case against LoRab and placed my vote accordingly. Without having checked back, I'm certain that I said as much at the time I voted.

Clearly, I was wrong about Elohcin and in retrospect (after reading LoRab's comprehensive defence) am beginning to feel I may have been wrong about her too. I am still however, firmly convinced that Sloonei is Town and that he may have just mistaken on that occasion - it happens to the best of us.

I'm off to dinner, be back shortly.
He gives Sloonei all the credit for his LoRab vote and reiterates his strong town read despite the result of the lynch -- he actually used the word "mistaken" here to refer to Sloonei's read of LoRab, which I think strongly implies LoRab is town. That's one of the most conclusive things I've found in the game actually.

to just remove LoRab from the suspect pool. If anyone disagrees, please shout it out. Otherwise I will proceed.

Two baddies and two townies in this pile:

Epignosis
Sloonei
Quin
Dom

#3796

#3797

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I feel strongly enough about this:

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
Spoiler: show
Glorfindel wrote:I have some recollection of someone expressing concern at my vote at the end od Day 3 so I'm happy to address that matter here. By the time I got on here, EoD was imminent and after skimming the recent posts at that time, the leading wagons were Elohcin and LoRab with a minor wagon on Sprityo. I wanted my vote to count for something and felt compelled to make a judgement between Elohcin and LoRab. Whilst the result turned out well for us, I never really could see the validity of the argument against Elohcin (I thought the assertion that she NK'd Epi on the basis of their personal relationship - two mature, intelligent long term members of this site unable to separate their Mafia gaming activities - to be frankly bordering on the absurd) and I was enamoured by Sloonei's case against LoRab and placed my vote accordingly. Without having checked back, I'm certain that I said as much at the time I voted.

Clearly, I was wrong about Elohcin and in retrospect (after reading LoRab's comprehensive defence) am beginning to feel I may have been wrong about her too. I am still however, firmly convinced that Sloonei is Town and that he may have just mistaken on that occasion - it happens to the best of us.

I'm off to dinner, be back shortly.
He gives Sloonei all the credit for his LoRab vote and reiterates his strong town read despite the result of the lynch -- he actually used the word "mistaken" here to refer to Sloonei's read of LoRab, which I think strongly implies LoRab is town. That's one of the most conclusive things I've found in the game actually.
to just remove LoRab from the suspect pool. If anyone disagrees, please shout it out. Otherwise I will proceed.

Two baddies and two townies in this pile:

Epignosis
Sloonei
Quin
Dom

You could remove me from that pile, but I know you won't.

Do you know that I've never been universally cleared before? True story: I went ages without a civilian win. I won plenty as bad, but never as good. My first ever civilian win, I had people ready to lynch me...even though I had survived a mafia Night kill...three different times.

Not making that up.

Let me ask you something, 3J: What could I ever do to get you to 100% trust me?

#3798

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Things Quin has never done in his life:

1. Vote for Glorfindel

That's right.

#3799

It's easy to assume I'm bad. It's hard to find teh actual baddie.

I've been hilariously wrong in this game. I am doing my best.

Ask yourself this: why would I keep killing my own top suspects?

#3800

Epignosis wrote:You could remove me from that pile, but I know you won't.

Do you know that I've never been universally cleared before? True story: I went ages without a civilian win. I won plenty as bad, but never as good. My first ever civilian win, I had people ready to lynch me...even though I had survived a mafia Night kill...three different times.

Not making that up.

To be fair, suspecting someone who has been targeted for three night kills is highly illogical and I'd at least like to think I wouldn't have suspected you in that game.

Epignosis wrote:Let me ask you something, 3J: What could I ever do to get you to 100% trust me?

I'm not sure there is anything you could do. Ask yourself the same question about me: if I hadn't survived a night kill, would you have a confident town read on me right now? You seem to suspect me in every game, and I probably suspect you in a lot of them too. Perhaps it's cautiousness more than reason, or maybe we both recognize that if we don't give each other shit then it's possible nobody else will.

I also play the game a bit differently from you. I am happy to shine my civilian light with blinding brightness, and you probably don't do that. That's your preference, and one of the consequences (apart from strengthening your baddie game significantly) is that it makes you harder to trust by nature.

If you are town, then two among Quin, Sloonei, and Dom are not. Please help me figure out which ones.

Who squashed LoRab?