Easter Mafia [GAME OVER]

[Scotty]

This was Mp’s Pot on D3:

Y'all should give me a four-name POE pool.

Hmmmm...

Charlie Epignosis
ColinIsCool
Elohcin
Marmot

I could swap in you for Marmot at this stage; I feel relatively similarly about you both.

I could actually narrow this and give you a 3-person one, but it might be missing a scum:

Charlie Epignosis
ColinIsCool
Elohcin

And then his last rainbow:

MP Rainbow #7 - Night 3 - PoE Style

Do NOT Lynch:
Scotty

Probably Shouldn't Lynch:
Dyslexicon
lapluie
nutella
Quin

Ehh....:
JaggedJimmyJay
Marmot

Would Lynch:
Charlienosis
ColinIsCool

It might just be confirmation bias at this point but I think MP might have been on to something. Let’s be honest- if you’re gonna kill someone that isn’t at the top of everyone’s rainbow list like this, then why not target someone who, I dunno, has claimed gladys reads? I don’t remember who all has done so, but the more I think about this kill the more i feel like MP was killed for personal reasons

[Marmot]

It might just be confirmation bias at this point but I think MP might have been on to something. Let’s be honest- if you’re gonna kill someone that isn’t at the top of everyone’s rainbow list like this, then why not target someone who, I dunno, has claimed gladys reads? I don’t remember who all has done so, but the more I think about this kill the more i feel like MP was killed for personal reasons

Good point.

Who has claimed Gladys aside from Jay and Dizzy?

[Scotty]

But then the strategic thing would have been to kill JJj early, and yet here we are.

Killing Mp does make sense if the mafia is going after high posters, but if that’s the case, why is JJJ still alive too? I’m just always on high alert when he’s not dead by now especially after voting off mafia d1

MP is the first high-poster to be nightkilled. I don't think this is a strategy the mafia is using.

I’m shit at NK analysis but I feel like MP’s ousting makes most sense with this team if he’s struck a chord with one or both mafia members.

Or they just woke up from their drunken stupor and are killing high posters now

[Scotty]

It might just be confirmation bias at this point but I think MP might have been on to something. Let’s be honest- if you’re gonna kill someone that isn’t at the top of everyone’s rainbow list like this, then why not target someone who, I dunno, has claimed gladys reads? I don’t remember who all has done so, but the more I think about this kill the more i feel like MP was killed for personal reasons

Good point.

Who has claimed Gladys aside from Jay and Dizzy?

I don’t remember- I didn’t even know claiming was a thug until like day 2, so I might have just missed it in perusal

[Scotty]

It might just be confirmation bias at this point but I think MP might have been on to something. Let’s be honest- if you’re gonna kill someone that isn’t at the top of everyone’s rainbow list like this, then why not target someone who, I dunno, has claimed gladys reads? I don’t remember who all has done so, but the more I think about this kill the more i feel like MP was killed for personal reasons

Good point.

Who has claimed Gladys aside from Jay and Dizzy?

I don’t remember- I didn’t even know claiming was a thug until like day 2, so I might have just missed it in perusal

I mean lap said he was prolly gonna die last night, but I don’t think I remember him ever claiming

[Marmot]

It might just be confirmation bias at this point but I think MP might have been on to something. Let’s be honest- if you’re gonna kill someone that isn’t at the top of everyone’s rainbow list like this, then why not target someone who, I dunno, has claimed gladys reads? I don’t remember who all has done so, but the more I think about this kill the more i feel like MP was killed for personal reasons

Good point.

Who has claimed Gladys aside from Jay and Dizzy?

I don’t remember- I didn’t even know claiming was a thug until like day 2, so I might have just missed it in perusal

Well, Day 2 would be the first time anyone would be able to get a peek anyway, so it couldn't have been a thing earlier.

[Quin]

sorry all i'd do more but suddenly sick as a sig dog who still has a mountain of work to do

if someone could link me to some stuff about colin i'd appreciate it

[Scotty]

sorry all i'd do more but suddenly sick as a sig dog who still has a mountain of work to do

if someone could link me to some stuff about colin i'd appreciate it

Heres an initial case

A lot of my suspicion stems from that and his response that that last look at choutas wasnt defending, when I see it clearly as such. The rest of my suspicion of him is semantics and that he is playing a safe game.

JJJ has his own beef with him tho

[Scotty]

I thought he and Elo were scumming it up together, but I might have been tunneling a bit too hard on that. If Colin is bad, which I cirrrntly think, his vote for Marmot to save Elo is the best look yet for Marmot.

Coincidentally, colin’s defense and attempted save of Elo is also what Epi thinks casts him in golden light and flower petals. Those are my bets for teammates

[Scotty]

On the flip side, Quin has been less than inspiring since Day 3 and I haven’t forgotten about him as a suspect. Even though nutella reads him as good.

I also liked how he said the strategic move as mafia is to try and lynch Elo over Marmot after doing exactly that.

Very subtle WIFOM

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Large cases coming to a thread near you. Stay tuned for future updates.

[Marmot]

Large cases coming to a thread near you. Stay tuned for future updates.

My roommate bought a case of wine this weekend. I was pretty stoked, watching him walk through the front door this morning, over to the table, and setting the case of wine in front of me.

It was a pretty big case.

[nutella]

Large cases coming to a thread near you. Stay tuned for future updates.

My roommate bought a case of wine this weekend. I was pretty stoked, watching him walk through the front door this morning, over to the table, and setting the case of wine in front of me.

It was a pretty big case.

Amazing

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm about to make a case for every other living player being a mafioso, starting now.

[Epignosis]

I don't mind being kicked off the team if that's what it takes for people to start taking more chances at the plate.

Would you vote Colin to save yourself?
Who is your biggest town read right now?

Why wouldn't I vote to save myself? What a silly question.

Colin.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why ColinIsCool is a mafioso

Quin and nova feels like a genuine argument, but I am waiting for the day that two scum start the game by immediately teeing off on each other as literally their first contribution to the thread.

This thing can be molded to suit any of the four possible outcomes as Colin desires:

Quin and nova are T/T, W/T, T/W, or W/W. The focus is on the first and last option, but the middles can be derived as well -- it's a hedge.

@JaggedJimmyJay i'm largely a reactive player in the early game and this game hasn't had much to react to yet.

we have like... a page worth of content. most of the content drivers in this game are playing in the job which is moving so fast that i think it's siphoning energy that could be used here.

this game needs a shot of adrenaline i think

This feels genuine to me. I am also very reactive so I can sympathize with it.

Positive vibes for Kyle. This doesn't mean anything right now, but I am tracking for later use if appropriate.

I believe 3J when he says he’s burnt out. I’ve been hearing it since I first came here and it’s not turned out to be a scum alibi and, well, that was like 2 or 3 months ago.

Mac and nova, what say you?

First vaguely pro-JJJ comment. Tracking.

I really am not buying that Jay is scum right now, he looks like every town Jay I’ve ever seen, so I have to ask myself why people’s votes are on him, including Quin who it looks like just did some backing down.

Defensive of me again, with a gentle suggestion of suspicion about Quin. Tracking.

I’m just realizing how brilliant Marmot’s D1 tradition is. There is no expectation of him ever making a real stance this phase as town and it carries over into his scum game easily, freeing him of most things a scum might get trapped in that early. I’m not making a read here, just, kudos.

Agreed.

I thought I made a post, but it vanished ...

If nutella actually is getting in the game, I'll take that over removing the spot in a heartbeat.

In the earlier post I (thought I?) made, I said I really liked Marmot's post up there on lapluie. That's a direct contradiction in play — you don't get them any clearer. Coupled with the low-key evasive behavior, I can get behind a [VOTE: LAPLUIE] aubergine lynch.

I've seen this before (Golden the Coward, Economics). Marmot's comparison between games for lapluie is a fair one to make, and it mirrors what I said in the referenced game about acrosstheaether. I was wrong though, and Golden the mafioso voiced strong agreement when given the opportunity in a way that looks similar to Colin's post right here.

This is a highly specific parallel, so tread carefully. It came to mind though so there it is.

Separately, I will note this as a suspicion expressed against lapluie by Colin. Tracking.

Okay, so reads:

JJJ, MP seem town. I’ve explained why for JJJ but MP also feels earnest and interested in solving the game. Epi seems to be playing as I have always seen him (town) so I can get behind him for now too.

I liked the cases made earlier on lapluie, Eloh, and I understood J’s ire toward Dyslexicon so I guess those are the biggest suspects. Because Marmot made one of those cases (lapluie) I would townread him too.

Scotty feels different to me from AG, where he was town, but maybe I’m not accustomed to his playstyle in general. Wolbre is playing similar to what I’ve seen but people have asked good questions of him and I don’t think he really addressed them. Choutas, as others have said, flying so far below radar I forgot he was here — not good. Slight scum lean on gut or soul or whatever.

Floyd, nothing. Nova, really not sure. Everybody I didn’t talk about, idk.

He voiced the slight scum lean on Choutas and didn't pursue it further. Suspicions of Scotty and wolbre are implied, but not expanded upon.

I started playing around 10 or 11 years ago as a wee babe but I have played extremely inconsistently in that time. Dunno how many. I played on RYM in the old days with some of these folks. I used to want to be scum all the time but now I have a job and junk so it’s a lot harder to have fun that way.

Alright, thanks. So you have enough experience to know anti-town doesn't always equal scum. You voted Lapluie and said her behavior was not pro-town. Why not just say you think she's scum? This is why it looks like you're searching for town that it would make sense voting and it also reads like a guilty mindset.

I believe I did call lapluie scum? This feels like reaching tbh.

I agree with Dizzy's assertion here, and Colin's response is not inspiring.

That’s not a defense. It’s an acknowledgement that he’s lower on my list than some, but not as low as others — hardly an endorsement for his town portfolio.

Colin has been resistant to the notion that he defended Choutas when he said this. While I would agree that it's not an endorsement, any post which can motion a lynch away from Choutas must by default function as a defense of Choutas. The initial post doesn't make Colin bad, but I don't think he has done well to own it.

Day 2 rainbow list and some explanations -- I'm not convinced that Colin has organically arrived at these conclusions, as they don't all follow from his content prior, and when they do the conclusions lack nuance. I could also call these reads inoffensive, in that they don't dare much to criticize players who've been likely to respond with fervor and not with memes.

Nearly half the things he says about me in his Day 2 ISO are negative, but he maintains the civilian read he started with anyway (and adopts stronger language in the process). Colin's treatment of me is the most confusing thing to me about his content, but that demands review from someone who isn't subject to my inherent biases on that front.

I don’t know about Jay you guys. Would he make a legacy post that long, for the second time in the game, if he were scum? My instinct and knowledge of him as a player tells me he’d put the effort to try to frame somebody else instead or something.

This for example.

You’ve expressed unease about me given the way I play. That’s fine. Considering that though, I struggle to understand why my legacy posts, which were inspirational in nature and did not contain actual reads, would be sufficient to alleviate the tinfoil you otherwise tend to project about me. Within that framework this seems a tenuous defense of me.

Hmm ok
I guess just because it seems like, knowing you, you’ve said before that scum need to just be able to survive the noose right no matter what that’s their most important goal so I think with that in mind if you were scum you would be actively trying to do that in a different way like saying oh lynch this person instead here’s a big fucking case you know. Instead of being like ... yall if my ass gets murdered here are your instrucfions before leaving earth. I bet that doesnt make sense but thats the thinking. I mean you can do WIFOM but idk get that shit outta here

I don't object to trust in its own right. I struggle to grasp Colin's trust for me though given his initial indication that I am "formidable". It would seem to me that if this conceptualization of how my metas might look held, then figuring me out would be a simpler task and I wouldn't be formidable. As it stands, all I need to do as a mafioso to gain credit is shake my pom poms a bit and say some pretty words, even when I don't provide reads. This is what concerns me when I suggest TMI.

I may be the most arrogant, annoying bastard on the Internet, and that means nothing about my alignment.

If I get lynched, then the civilians have scored on the wrong goal. They have rewarded the mafia for leaving me alive, and fallen for their transparent shit drooling and without freedom of will.

Colin knows I’m a civilian and gets my vote.

I read you as civilian. Unless they’re sitting on their hands and not broadcasting suspicions, almost everybody else in the game seems to be reading you as civilian too — are they going to get lynched for that?

Two problems:

1.) The assertion that "almost everybody else in the game seems to be reading [JJJ] as a civilian" is not accurate. I've been getting steadily more shit as the game has progressed, and at present I don't get the impression that even a majority would call me "trustworthy".

2.) This is a considerable reduction of the suspicion I have presented. I do not suspect Colin for reading me as a civilian. I suspect Colin for why he reads me as a civilian. Defenses that take on this "but what about all these other people doing X?" character tend to earn my ire.

It’s astounding how I can get this much heat for saying something that everybody seems to implicitly agree with.

They don't.

~~~

Returning to my "tracking" moments above, I wanted to assess an important dynamic in Colin's content -- his tendencies to give civilian credit, and his tendencies to cast suspicion (by proportions). I entered this with a perspective that Colin has been more inclined to support/defend other players in this game even beyond just myself than he has been to cast suspicions or to make cases. After this review I would say that the distinction isn't as severe as my memory suggested, though the early stage of the game is pretty suitable. The defenses are concrete and numerous; the suspicions are vague and few.

[lapluie]

Quin killed mp while his teammate marmot was away conFiRMED

[lapluie]

oh heck yeah jjjs long investigation posts

[ColinIsCool]

sorry all i'd do more but suddenly sick as a sig dog who still has a mountain of work to do

if someone could link me to some stuff about colin i'd appreciate it

Heres an initial case

A lot of my suspicion stems from that and his response that that last look at choutas wasnt defending, when I see it clearly as such. The rest of my suspicion of him is semantics and that he is playing a safe game.

JJJ has his own beef with him tho

I think your argument, full stop, is semantics. That, and the worst case of tunnel vision I've seen since I dogged somebody through half a game in Fallout Mafia on RYM. I was wrong then, and you're wrong now.

[Epignosis]

I’m more a manic dog looking for my binky when I have suspicion in general, and I think Epi is more calm about shit

I have way more important things going on right now.

[Epignosis]

This was Mp’s Pot on D3:

Y'all should give me a four-name POE pool.

Hmmmm...

Charlie Epignosis
ColinIsCool
Elohcin
Marmot

I could swap in you for Marmot at this stage; I feel relatively similarly about you both.

I could actually narrow this and give you a 3-person one, but it might be missing a scum:

Charlie Epignosis
ColinIsCool
Elohcin

And then his last rainbow:

MP Rainbow #7 - Night 3 - PoE Style

Do NOT Lynch:
Scotty

Probably Shouldn't Lynch:
Dyslexicon
lapluie
nutella
Quin

Ehh....:
JaggedJimmyJay
Marmot

Would Lynch:
Charlienosis
ColinIsCool

It might just be confirmation bias at this point but I think MP might have been on to something. Let’s be honest- if you’re gonna kill someone that isn’t at the top of everyone’s rainbow list like this, then why not target someone who, I dunno, has claimed gladys reads? I don’t remember who all has done so, but the more I think about this kill the more i feel like MP was killed for personal reasons

"Personal reasons?"

[Epignosis]

I thought he and Elo were scumming it up together, but I might have been tunneling a bit too hard on that. If Colin is bad, which I cirrrntly think, his vote for Marmot to save Elo is the best look yet for Marmot.

Coincidentally, colin’s defense and attempted save of Elo is also what Epi thinks casts him in golden light and flower petals. Those are my bets for teammates

I've been one of the least trusted people. My teammate is Colin, so I make him my most trusted person?

How successful are you at the plate?

[Epignosis]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

To this point.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why Dyslexicon is a mafioso

[VOTE: Jimmeeeeeeeyyy] aubergine

On Day 1 there was a wagon on me that at one point reached 4 votes. If you assume for the sake of argument that I am a civilian, then it isn't hard to find room for opportunism in that. Dizzy's vote was either the third or fourth.

[VOTE: Dizzy] aubergine

Makes two nothing posts then hitches a ride on a wagon that threatens to mislynch the loudest civilian voice.

No.

We've been scum together, so you've seen my scum play, and this here is not it : p
I wanted to join a wagon, and especially your's since I love you so much, and then you could all gossip about it. You should know this. Don't you think you should know this?

In response to my initial criticism on that front, Dizzy was incredulous. He adopted a perspective that I wasn't getting something which ought to be obvious to me, or that I should be aware of already -- as though Dizzy's civilian designs behind dumping a wagon-building vote on me are clear from the start and shouldn't be questioned. That's silly.

[url=http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 21#p449621]POE list here is 7-deep, and really it ought to be called 9-deep. Even the middling civilian reads come with caveats. POE can't function when the vast majority of the living players are in the suspect pool, particularly when only two of them are mafia members.

I was going to note some other things which I don't remember.

Quin is the only one defending the night kill as clever. Just sayinnnn.

If I'm Gladys Campbell, Floyd is a dentist.

This is a convenient claimed Gladys check. Using the ability on a non-poster is strategically agreeable, but that doesn't mean it's an honest effort to progress civilian activity -- Floyd is the least likely player to voice concern about this thing (if, for example, he is a Christian non-dentist) because he essentially doesn't exist.

I'll discuss the Night 2 check Dizzy provided here too for ease of understanding -- someone who was a non-dentist, but unnamed. This again ensures that no single individual who is subject to a claimed check can protest (because there isn't an individual). This is ineffective cover and can lead nowhere with regard to things like clears stemming from a Gladys death. There's no good reason to withhold this name even in a cover effort, it's at best pointless. Even if a non-dentist cannot be conclusively identified as a Christian or as a mafioso, it is still something -- and it can be particularly useful to the people who are Christians. They have the best capacity to eliminate options and that information provides valuable data toward a total game view.

This is why I have suggested that of the two other players providing Gladys checks (Marmot and Dizzy) is a mafioso, Dizzy looks more likely to be malevolent in that effort (more than Marmot).

K, I’m not buying the Jimmey case at all. Will come back to this later.

What was the last game lapluie was scum in?

This was Dizzy's immediate response to the Day 3 pressure I felt, primarily from the case MP assembled against me. Dizzy's conclusion is correct, but it's also very frank -- wrong as he was, MP's case was well-conceived. I wasn't surprised after reading it that it caught on at least while I was unable to protest it. This is was the reason why my intuition suggested to me that someone defending me in spite of that case was bullshitting (which I have directly focused in Colin's direction, but can also apply to Dizzy). This also looms large later, and I'll explain why.

It doesn’t logically fall apart. I am saying that if one of the people claiming Gladys Campbell checks is doing so dishonestly (neither for truth nor for cover), independent of other thread data, then you have that look. I don’t understand why you would say you checked a non-dentist without saying who.

I don’t think the kills have your prints, so I am considering that. You’re not someone I want to lynch today. You’re a backburner concern.

I think nutella has looked quite authentic since she joined us. I have no gripes. Her vote is misplaced, but I don’t think she’s handled it in a way that is troublesome.

It does fall apart, because you start with an "if". It's basically, if I'm scum, I'm scum. I don't understand you not understanding it. This role has one function, especially with the dentists dead. It can sort people into confirmed town and not confirmed town. The latter being worthless, as it's the same as what we all start with. So that's why I don't feel it's necessary to reveal, and again, I can talk more about this post game, but it isn't helpful now. It's basically a cop who only can confirm green results. When not having a green result, there's nothing to confirm. You not getting this actually gives me pause in regards to you. Even if what I said wasn't the case, why the quack would me not giving the name be any type of AI for me? You're probably right that I would do a cover thing if I was scum as well automatically when I saw you did it, cause I'm used to doing this. That makes it at worst NAI. And I don't think I should be all that hard to sort otherwise (but I'm biased etc).

It's funny, cause I had a twinge of paranoia for you not being paranoid of me at all earlier. But this just feels weird. Both this, and what you said regarding "someone defending me may engage in TMI" looks to me like plain unsound reasoning that I don't expect you engaging in. So me and Colin defended you from MP's accusations. What's the point of stating that someone defending you may engage in TMI? Like, duh, if any of us are scum, yeah we are. It says nothing. It just creates doubt. Either you think I'm town/scum/unsure (same for Colin) or you don't. It's like both these arguments boils down to "if this person doing this thing is scum, then they are not doing it honestly". No shit, Sherlock.

Btw, I defended you from MP's accusations because I haven't felt disconnected to your behavior this game (apart from what's above now). And I don't know you as a player who would bus a teammate D1 like that. But maybe this is an exception. I don't know.

About Nutella - aight.

Hey guys I'm a civ

<3

Dizzy, in protest of the concerns I raised about his Gladys check claims, begins to waver in their continuing defense of me. This is hard for me to take seriously. When confronted with a huge MP dogpee case against me, their immediate response was a total, abject dismissal. Then, when confronted with this relatively minor concern I expressed about them, they start to freak out. Moreover, that freakout is comprised of horrendous reductions of the logic I was presenting (highlighted in yellow). That is garbage.

There is no logical failure in this assertion:

"If there's a bad guy in Group of People Doing X, I am inclined to suspect Dizzy".

That is not the same thing, or even close to the same thing, as "if Dizzy is scum, then Dizzy is scum". That is offensive nonsense and I will not stand for it.

The orange bit is even worse. What is the point of stating that someone defending you may be engaging in TMI? -- WHAT? Allow me to translate: What is the point of expressing a suspicion you have about a thing? "If the person doing this thing I find suspicious is mafia, then that person is mafia". This is the reduction being attributed to me, and it is bullshit.

I acknowledge that this may all be miscommunication or something. So say your piece if you care to Dizzy, but for the moment this is the worst stuff in your post history to me.

Dizzy you don’t understand what I am saying and I don’t have time right now to explain it to you.

It doesn't really even matter to me right now lol.

I have to question then whether you cared about it in the first place.

Another angle to address while we're here and the wagons are split in two primary directions. Which one is more likely to be unlynchable? I understand it's difficult to tell, but I think it'd be prudent to try.

Lol what.

What?

How on earth can that be predicted in the very lucky case both are scum and why should we care. So, lol what.

Even if you don't know how to approach the concern I have presented, there's no good reason to shoot it down. I was trying to encourage thoroughness, and Dizzy shit on that.

Jimmeey has been on a different planet since mid day 3. Just sayin.

What is your point?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

To this point.

Had you read everything through the end of Day 3 when that phase ended?

[Epignosis]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

To this point.

Had you read everything through the end of Day 3 when that phase ended?

I've read everything to this.

[Epignosis]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

To this point.

Had you read everything through the end of Day 3 when that phase ended?

I've read everything to this.

I misread. I think I did. I don't remember.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

To this point.

Had you read everything through the end of Day 3 when that phase ended?

I've read everything to this.

I misread. I think I did. I don't remember.

Did you review Elohcin's content before you voted for her and endorsed her lynch?

[ColinIsCool]

Quin and nova feels like a genuine argument, but I am waiting for the day that two scum start the game by immediately teeing off on each other as literally their first contribution to the thread.

This thing can be molded to suit any of the four possible outcomes as Colin desires:

Quin and nova are T/T, W/T, T/W, or W/W. The focus is on the first and last option, but the middles can be derived as well -- it's a hedge.

No. There are two possibilities entertained here, but the mixed outcomes are clearly not what I said.

I’m just realizing how brilliant Marmot’s D1 tradition is. There is no expectation of him ever making a real stance this phase as town and it carries over into his scum game easily, freeing him of most things a scum might get trapped in that early. I’m not making a read here, just, kudos.

Agreed.

If there is a point to highlighting this — beyond padding the post to make it look like a more "detailed" case? — it is beyond me.

I thought I made a post, but it vanished ...

If nutella actually is getting in the game, I'll take that over removing the spot in a heartbeat.

In the earlier post I (thought I?) made, I said I really liked Marmot's post up there on lapluie. That's a direct contradiction in play — you don't get them any clearer. Coupled with the low-key evasive behavior, I can get behind a [VOTE: LAPLUIE] aubergine lynch.

I've seen this before (Golden the Coward, Economics). Marmot's comparison between games for lapluie is a fair one to make, and it mirrors what I said in the referenced game about acrosstheaether. I was wrong though, and Golden the mafioso voiced strong agreement when given the opportunity in a way that looks similar to Colin's post right here.

This is a highly specific parallel, so tread carefully. It came to mind though so there it is.

Separately, I will note this as a suspicion expressed against lapluie by Colin. Tracking.

"Tread carefully" is quite an understatement when you use one player's meta and scum technique as a knock against another.

I started playing around 10 or 11 years ago as a wee babe but I have played extremely inconsistently in that time. Dunno how many. I played on RYM in the old days with some of these folks. I used to want to be scum all the time but now I have a job and junk so it’s a lot harder to have fun that way.

Alright, thanks. So you have enough experience to know anti-town doesn't always equal scum. You voted Lapluie and said her behavior was not pro-town. Why not just say you think she's scum? This is why it looks like you're searching for town that it would make sense voting and it also reads like a guilty mindset.

I believe I did call lapluie scum? This feels like reaching tbh.

I agree with Dizzy's assertion here, and Colin's response is not inspiring.

No. Semantics.

That’s not a defense. It’s an acknowledgement that he’s lower on my list than some, but not as low as others — hardly an endorsement for his town portfolio.

Colin has been resistant to the notion that he defended Choutas when he said this. While I would agree that it's not an endorsement, any post which can motion a lynch away from Choutas must by default function as a defense of Choutas. The initial post doesn't make Colin bad, but I don't think he has done well to own it.

This rings largely untrue to me, or else I would have also been defending every other player in the game. If you have three bad reads of varying scummyness, and you elect to lynch one versus the others, are you defending the other two? Of course not.

Day 2 rainbow list and some explanations -- I'm not convinced that Colin has organically arrived at these conclusions, as they don't all follow from his content prior, and when they do the conclusions lack nuance. I could also call these reads inoffensive, in that they don't dare much to criticize players who've been likely to respond with fervor and not with memes.

Did you forget the part where MP and a super Marmot are near the bottom of that list, or ... ?

I don't object to trust in its own right. I struggle to grasp Colin's trust for me though given his initial indication that I am "formidable". It would seem to me that if this conceptualization of how my metas might look held, then figuring me out would be a simpler task and I wouldn't be formidable. As it stands, all I need to do as a mafioso to gain credit is shake my pom poms a bit and say some pretty words, even when I don't provide reads. This is what concerns me when I suggest TMI.

If I took a good feeling in a town direction as a reason to consider someone scum, I would be trapped in a paradox of regression and have literally no town reads. And your reduction of my point here is downright laughable. It's not "saying pretty words" that counts, it's what those words are and how they fit in the greater context of the events. No.

I may be the most arrogant, annoying bastard on the Internet, and that means nothing about my alignment.

If I get lynched, then the civilians have scored on the wrong goal. They have rewarded the mafia for leaving me alive, and fallen for their transparent shit drooling and without freedom of will.

Colin knows I’m a civilian and gets my vote.

I read you as civilian. Unless they’re sitting on their hands and not broadcasting suspicions, almost everybody else in the game seems to be reading you as civilian too — are they going to get lynched for that?

Two problems:

1.) The assertion that "almost everybody else in the game seems to be reading [JJJ] as a civilian" is not accurate. I've been getting steadily more shit as the game has progressed, and at present I don't get the impression that even a majority would call me "trustworthy".

2.) This is a considerable reduction of the suspicion I have presented. I do not suspect Colin for reading me as a civilian. I suspect Colin for why he reads me as a civilian. Defenses that take on this "but what about all these other people doing X?" character tend to earn my ire.

Agree to disagree. I don't interpret the game this way at all, and I think that the lack of people responding to Charlie's question posed in your direction is all the proof I need.

I have had you as a solid town read this whole game, Jay, but this is some major blind spotting and I am more than a little put off by the premises on which you've begun this exercise. But I'll let you see it through.

[Epignosis]

Charlie, how much of this thread have you read?

To this point.

Had you read everything through the end of Day 3 when that phase ended?

I've read everything to this.

I misread. I think I did. I don't remember.

Did you review Elohcin's content before you voted for her and endorsed her lynch?

I didn't review anything. As I said: Intuition.

I don't think you answered my question about this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Intuition.

What about her triggered that intuition?

I don't think you answered my question about this.

I voted for her because I couldn't find adequate justification for her defeatism, because of observations made by Quin that I agreed with, and because I had more reason to believe in the counterwagon Marmot as a civilian than I did to believe in her.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have had you as a solid town read this whole game, Jay, but this is some major blind spotting and I am more than a little put off by the premises on which you've begun this exercise. But I'll let you see it through.

One thing that should be abundantly clear to you right now is that I don't give a damn about maintaining your town read on me -- I have a hard time believing it in the first place.

I'll see where I end up when I'm finished.

[ColinIsCool]

I have had you as a solid town read this whole game, Jay, but this is some major blind spotting and I am more than a little put off by the premises on which you've begun this exercise. But I'll let you see it through.

One thing that should be abundantly clear to you right now is that I don't give a damn about maintaining your town read on me -- I have a hard time believing it in the first place.

I'll see where I end up when I'm finished.

If you think I'm trying to award you town points for trying, you're sadly mistaken.

[Epignosis]

Intuition.

What about her triggered that intuition?

I don't think you answered my question about this.

I voted for her because I couldn't find adequate justification for her defeatism, because of observations made by Quin that I agreed with, and because I had more reason to believe in the counterwagon Marmot as a civilian than I did to believe in her.

I thought she drew two bad roles at the same time. She was bad in the one, and I felt this one was an easy call.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you think I'm trying to award you town points for trying, you're sadly mistaken.

I don't know what this means or how it applies to what I said. Please restate.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why Charlie Blackmon is a mafioso

So, let me process this in a way I can understand.

If you're the manager, and you have to pull one guy of the lineup, do you take out Nolan Arenado, who could, yes, have a bad night, or do you take out a guy who hasn't even shown up to batting practice?

Because I'm not taking out Nolan over a guy who hasn't even shown up to batting practice. I'll wait until I see Nolan struggle and then make a decision then. But not before the game even starts. That's irresponsible.

What happens when Nolan clobbers a home run in his first at-bat?

If right now it was Day 2 and I had ten seconds to place a final vote, it would be for Charlie Blackmon.

Why?

Of the people who have made at least one post, he is the only one for whom I cannot think of one favorable point.

I can get behind that.

Of course you can. You've gotten behind everything.

"Of course you can. You've gotten behind everything."

That implies that nothing you have said makes me think you're on my team.

Nice kill choice Jay.

You'd make that goofy-ass kill, Marmot.

That's more like an MP pitch.

215 posts. Is this what it's like to ISO me? Goodness.

Yours is easy, Watch:

Considers everything.

Accuses this person.

Defends that person.

Considers everything in twelve posts.

Asks nine questions in ten posts.

Considers everything in seventeen posts.

Can't be around much because he's busy.

Charlie's treatment of MP during this stretch is hard to take seriously. It's critical, and in the case of the middle two posts there represents concrete suspicion -- but it was never pursued with any fervor or even interest. It appears more sarcastic than meaningful, and serves little purpose beyond smearing a vocal civilian and making him look dumb. MP's behavior in this game may have been aptly described above, but I don't know of an active performance by MP which couldn't be described that way. Why is this a problem; why is it in the thread; who cares?

Attributing the nova kill to MP strikes me as a reach too. Why?

The change of heart here was completely unnecessary if Colin is playing on the other team. I don't love the self-congratulatory thing, but I get it.

This defense of Colin should have also applied to Elohcin (his vote that day). He said he missed Eloh's change of heart which may be true, but it'd require him to have contributed to a lynch without doing his homework -- something I wouldn't say is typical of him.

Also, damn it Rockets. Really?

Absolutely shameful. 27 in a row.

I may be the most arrogant, annoying bastard on the Internet, and that means nothing about my alignment.

If I get lynched, then the civilians have scored on the wrong goal. They have rewarded the mafia for leaving me alive, and fallen for their transparent shit drooling and without freedom of will.

Colin knows I’m a civilian and gets my vote.

I have no idea what your opinion on me is.

You're afraid to come after me, and you know killing me is a waste of a good lynch.

I say you threw your teammate under the bus.

This smells of opportunism emerging from the MP kill, given that MP was the most vocally concerned about me throughout the game. The highlighted thing in particular is crap, because in recent phases I haven't done much to "go after" anyone -- Charlie or otherwise. I've hardly even been here.

[ColinIsCool]

I disagree pretty thoroughly with many of the points you make, the conclusions you arrive at and the logic you used to bridge them, so I am more cautious about your arguments than I have been. I'm more interested in hearing the rest of them, though, so don't let me get in the way.

[Epignosis]

I'm not buying any of this "homework" JJJ is doing. It's phony. Giving reasons why everyone could be bad isn't actually doing anything. It just looks like it is. My vote stays.

Why did you vote the way you did, JJJ?

[Epignosis]

For Chaoatas I mean.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not buying any of this "homework" JJJ is doing. It's phony. Giving reasons why everyone could be bad isn't actually doing anything. It just looks like it is. My vote stays.

Calm your tits and let me finish.

Why did you vote the way you did, JJJ?

I use chrome maybe its a settings issue.
Anyhow lets get to business.

Cool. What do you think of rabbits?

Also, the game

Theyre cute but they make terrible meat so a no for me.
The game has started in a mild manner we need to stir things up. Force people to read others.

As for Day one Mac i think hes right into the role.

I agree. Few people have taken less advantage of the stirring up of thing that has happened since.

I don't know what this is.

In Ancient Greece, Choutas got off to a slow start. He didn't hesitate to make game-relevant comments though, and he was incisive.

Ancient Greece Choutas ISO

This time he has given much less in the way of reads, and doesn't seem oriented toward getting to a place where he can have reads.

Easter Choutas ISO

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why lapluie is a mafioso

It was an attempt to goad you into the thread, so I would say it is semi-serious. It is slightly more serious because of your reply to me earlier

I see.
I have no reads tbh I'm just stalling

She's been with us long enough to understand how we value authenticity, so a transparent admission of doing nothing can go a long way toward getting away with doing nothing.

I see @lapluie hS also voted Floyd, for no discernible reason.

I know why I am there, does lap?

Yes sir I do.

Would you like to share with the class?

clears throat
inactive
that's basically all I have to clarify for my vote, nothing exaggerating I kno! !

To consider Floyd a candidate in the early going is fine. To actively suspect Floyd based upon his inactivity is not fine. There's no rationale for that. If the guy isn't aware of the game, then he could be anything and we have no means of judging that beyond rolling dice and process of elimination. So this could be fake.

Can we focus on Scotty too pls, this is 2 pressuring

lapluie wanted some of her own negative press to fall on Scotty instead, who she felt was guilty of the same sin she was being accused of.

...which would imply she didn't find the accusations objectionable.

oh my snot

I eagerly await your input.

This is like de ja vu all over again
well to be honest guys, I don't have much reads on anyone, so... I am just voting for an inactive player rather voting off for some body who's already has a leading vote for lynch in which I don't even think they're bad, everyone is just basically voting off eachother for their own reasons but I don't typically agree, dyslex only has 3 posts so I don't understand why they have votes to begin with. (??) IDK WHAT ELSE to say lmao.

The Floyd vote is justified by lapluie's lack of understanding of the cases presented against the other players with votes. This is okay in theory, but what's missing is a read we can attribute to lapluie herself. This must mean that she is playing the game vicariously through everyone else's reads, judging them all disagreeable in this case, and defaulting to the player who cannot be read at all.

Players, please talk to me about...

Choutas

Their username reminds me of churros

Agreeable, but not inspiring. That's a mafioso you're talking about.

Quin throwing in the towel!!! May as well vote for him too since he isn't so enthusiastic on staying alive or even participating in game anymore

Yuck. "Yes, Quin, I accept your invitation to vote for you, if you insist."

I think I’ll switch Colin for Dizzy as the tinfoil. If I’m Gladys Campbell, Colin is a dentist.

Laughs hysterically

I don't know what this is.

Thanks quin appreciate it, I was civilian all along but before kyle died I was really really bad so now I'm civilian I guess what a roller coaster

I don't know what this is.

WHY DID U GUYS.... omf..

This was lap's response to the Elohcin lynch. Previous mentions of Elohcin: 2 (on Day 2, when lapluie voiced suspicion of Elohcin).

So this hysteria is hard to buy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hate it when I start making larger posts, and then the thread takes a shit. Y'all need to continue deliberating. Nobody's going to stop me from finishing my task. I would like feedback too, particularly from people observing the cases I assemble against others (I don't gain as much from people protesting the cases against themselves, but that's fine too).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why Marmot is a mafioso

I use chrome maybe its a settings issue.
Anyhow lets get to business.

Cool. What do you think of rabbits?

Also, the game

Theyre cute but they make terrible meat so a no for me.
The game has started in a mild manner we need to stir things up. Force people to read others.

As for Day one Mac i think hes right into the role.

Just highlighting the appropriate yikes moment before continuing.

ColinIsCool
Kylemii
M Plus 7
novaselinenever
Scotty

Dyslexicon
TheFloyd73

wolbre04
Quin
MacDougall
lapluie
Elohcin
Choutas

Accurate

Mac knew I put his team in the orange pile and said as much -- there's little to fear when Day 1 rainbows end up changing so much anyway. If he's bad, I know it's at the very least 2/3 "accurate". He tried to play it off like I was distancing though.

Emerging from a considerable baddie effort in Ass Class and immersed in his full game host, Mac didn't think he could give his scum team the attention it needed and elected to be replaced soon after flipping his role card.

Enter Marmot.

Aw crap I got a mafia rolecard.

Marmot is no stranger to WIFOM and has done it as a civilian at least once to my memory (his first RYM game). I have personally beaten him though by seeing through his WIFOM (the shit he tried to pull with DrWilgy and Mac in Romance of the Three Kingdoms), so I am not throwing this out. If he literally tells me that he is a mafioso in his first post as a player, then I am counting that as a mark against him.

Failing to do that is foolishness.

Marmot confidently reads MP as mafia for reasons that I don't believe warrant that confidence. MP is scum because he is asking questions? Have you met MP?

This comparison Marmot drew for lapluie is a bit loaded. The Mortal Kombat example featured her asking a question about someone else's suspicion, not explaining her own (or explaining a civilian read). There's no contradiction here.

[VOTE: Choutas] aubergine be bad please!

I'm not giving Marmot "too bad to be bad" points. Have you met Marmot? This is a crappy vote. It came late when the lynch was mostly decided, and it wasn't supported adequately by prior Marmot content.

Nice kill choice Jay.

You'd make that goofy-ass kill, Marmot.

No way, I'd take this golden opportunity and kill Charlie Blackmon.

No you wouldn't. A temporary username doesn't change the identity of the person. Otherwise you'd forever lose this "I never kill Epignosis" thing you love to claim so often, and any attempt to exploit the loophole that he wasn't technically called Epignosis would just be met with discredits. The nova kill was still wack, and Marmot is suspect zero in all wack matters (unless Wilgy is playing, then we can talk).

I don't know why I am in the blue tier. Marmot never trusts me.

And Marmot too — what’s up with MP in your eyes?

MP is scum and I'm looking for his teammate imo.

When you think about MP's alignment in this game, what single thing gives you the most pause when considering him a bad guy?

I've found his interactions with wolbre to be pretty sincere and believable. I don't think they're teammate compatible (which is something I thought going into today).

I didn't see much evidence that Marmot was considering both sides of the coin when judging MP in this game, and when I asked for some I got this half-baked "not teammates with X" thing. Meh.

[Epignosis]

lapluie has called herself a basketball when she was the "guy who invented basketballs."

I'm done trying to understand that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why nutella is a mafioso

Rip wolbre, hi nutella!

I think I like you. Can you expand on why Elo is at the bottom for you?

Her flip flop on Jay on day 1, the way she said she would have voted for choutas, saying "my heart's not in it", those are the main things that stick out. But honestly looking at her iso again I could see townies Eloh. I think I often read her backwards so idk

I'm feeling the same kind of paranoia I felt in Fiddler where I want to tinfoil those who were initially my top civ reads. Like actually I could flip my whole rainbow upside-down. I think I need to re-read the choutas interaction analyses to get some better direction on who to look at.

She started the game with a rainbow list, claiming she hadn't yet received a role. Then she received the role, waffled on her Elohcin read, and then considered flipping the entire rainbow over.

To be indecisive is fine, but damn.

Gun to head reads came soon after which mostly matched the initial rainbow. The tinfoil was instantaneous for nutella, but apparently didn't linger at least at first.

Why is everyone giving Jay a pass? He's on fucking autopilot.

If anything, he looks bad AF. Jay will bus his teammates without remorse if he thinks it's the best way to get to victory.

I want to lynch Jay.

Sure why not

[VOTE: jaggedjimmyjay] aubergine

Top green read to "sure why not" vote in the blink of an eye. The rainbow hath flipped. Within the framework of this Rainbow A and Reverse Rainbow B game view, there is no vote which cannot be justified.

actually a fair point. I think Jay's response to MP's and my suspicion/intent to lynch him makes him look more town atm, I'm just... very afraid that he could easily fake that classic jay supatown behavior. Like I said earlier I'm kind of in paranoid-tinfoily mode and just won't feel right until I know his alignment for sure, but I will probably end up on a more reasonable candidate (eloh or marmot) by eod.

I am surprised to have earned this credit at the time. Confined to my phone and unable to post anything of substance, I still somehow ended up here with nutella.

She has developed a reputation for changing her views quickly and frequently, and I expect to see that appear in her evil game too -- when the changes are hard to follow or understand, it's a problem.

Something fascinating has just happened to me. It has actually happened to me before, but now that I'm noticing it again I am rather intrigued by its effect. What just happened is that I abruptly and confidently called Charlinosis bad, had a back-and-forth with him about it and looked at his ISO to explore my suspicion, and I came out just now deciding that I town read him. Actually pretty dang strongly at the moment. I guess it's just that it took the motive of looking for suspicious things (but again needing to have not too much confirmation bias for this to work) in order for me to actually go into his ISO and realize that I saw most of it in a pretty good light. It was partially the ISO and partially his responses in the moment that convinced me to change my view.

The strange thing, however, is that the other time I am thinking of that a similar thing happened was with Elohcin in U-Pick, and she turned out to be bad. Granted, my confidence on her civ-ness didn't stay very strong; I'll just have to wait and see what happens with Charlie Brown here but I hope I am not similarly fooled. At the moment I am feeling confident enough that his ISO looks civ that I believe this is a quite different situation from what happened with Elohcin in the other game.

Perhaps I should try to do this with other players and see if it works. If I go in assuming they're bad, and I come out of an ISO unable to sustain that, I'm on my way to a foolproof PoE.

Anyway, Epi isn't bad.

She'd just gotten done ripping him a new one, and then came the epiphany. She followed this with a vote for me. nutella's opinions change in a direct relationship with who is presently in the thread?. This can be observed in her revolution around the Epi read, then her return to a vote for me, and then a vote for someone else soon after I dropped in again. I didn't have to do anything.

nutella's reads continue to change in ways that make me question my reality and the deterministic nature of the universe. She is operating at the quantum level, subject to pure randomness and chance in ways no other Mafia player has experienced.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why Quin is a mafioso

Cool, Cool cool cool.

Is there any follow-up? What did you get from asking that question?

Wouldn't you like to know?

Quin opened the game by giving nova some crap, and when nova turned it around Quin stuck his tongue out. He dished it but did not take it.

When I forced him to take it, he went full OMGUS

k so i'll admit i never saw this post

What does it mean to you?

it means he explained what he got out of the conversation and i should give up

Quin and I exchanged barbs for a while until it ended here, with Quin acknowledging that he'd missed a nova post of importance. Nonetheless, he has recently returned to his suspicion of me, specifically citing this early game spat as the reason why -- a spat which dissolved when he realized he goofed.

Or something. To be honest I haven't got a god damn clue what I'm on about anymore. Someone tell me whether I'm making a lick of sense.

Posting this to reinforce the point above. Have you recently rediscovered what you were on about?

Oh and I forgot Quin ... Quin is pretty inscrutable to me and I don't like that.

I second this actually. I also don't like that he was the one to be like "no but the kill was actually clever come on guyezzz" for more or less silly reasons, but like, I think Quin would be a player that would be low key bothered if other players called his play not smart. : p Does that make sense?

hate this. literally both parts are wrong. not even a misinterpretation. wrong.

[VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine

What is the correct interpretation, and why does this make Dyslexicon bad?

He wifomised my night kill analysis. "Because nova made no explicit reads, I think the nova kill was a smart kill which doesn't reflect badly on anybody" got turned into "no but the kill was actually clever come on guyezzz". Fuck that.

"More or less silly reasons" is just the icing on the cake.

Quin got super cranky about this thing with Dizzy, and it looked like caught for the wrong reasons.

yea

Please share.

something wrong if there isn't?

Yes.

lapluie is good and marmot is bad.

no there isn't. fight me.

The "marmot is bad" part is of interest, because later Quin would return to declare Marmot his top civilian read. What was different at this stage, Quin?

Then we're all on the same page.

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

He self-voted because being lynched was irrelevant -- he's Caerbannog.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I may be the most arrogant, annoying bastard on the Internet, and that means nothing about my alignment.

If I get lynched, then the civilians have scored on the wrong goal. They have rewarded the mafia for leaving me alive, and fallen for their transparent shit drooling and without freedom of will.

Colin knows I’m a civilian and gets my vote.

Do you think either of nut’s or Epi’s votes look disengenuous to you?

nutella's follows her quantum mechanics reads progression and doesn't really bother me. Epi's comes on the heels of an MP kill (after MP was pooping in my proverbial Corn Flakes frequently) and looks more opportunistic. I like his less.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Why Scotty is a mafioso

@Everybody

Only two bad guys remain. It may seem early, but POE is your friend. If you can narrow the pool down to about five suspects, you're giving yourself a great opportunity. If you can't, then you have alerted yourself to the investigative pursuits you need to work on. With 2 mafia alive against 11 civilians, we can mislynch four times before arriving at a LyLo phase (assuming no prevented kills and no shenanigans). Also be aware that the presence of a temporarily lynch-immune bad guy can interfere with that considerably.

I forgot that no-lynch role was in and just had a thought- what if the teammate bussed that player early to get him lynched and gain civ credit? Would that even be worth it?

This reads a bit like a mafioso telling you exactly what happened, but phrasing it as a spooky what if?? scenario which never develops into anything anyway.

@Everybody

Only two bad guys remain. It may seem early, but POE is your friend. If you can narrow the pool down to about five suspects, you're giving yourself a great opportunity. If you can't, then you have alerted yourself to the investigative pursuits you need to work on. With 2 mafia alive against 11 civilians, we can mislynch four times before arriving at a LyLo phase (assuming no prevented kills and no shenanigans). Also be aware that the presence of a temporarily lynch-immune bad guy can interfere with that considerably.

I forgot that no-lynch role was in and just had a thought- what if the teammate bussed that player early to get him lynched and gain civ credit? Would that even be worth it?

This crossed my mind too, with the theory that Jay lynched Choutas to give himself an incredibly amound of civ cred. Additionally, Jay is the Cadbury bunny, meaning he has one more teammate that is unlynchable, and since we're probably not lynching Jay anytime soon, they'll cruise for a while.

But this is so tinfoil, I'm not gonna ready to embrace it.

That tinfoil is so sharp you can cut diamonds

Scotty was quick to dismiss suspicion of me early in the game, which can be indicative of TMI.

Yikes this weekend is going to be a drag for a lot of people. I know I’m rather occupied right now, but it’s not a time to be stagnant.

Quick, someone talk about why mp is suspicious before he gets back!

Lynch Jay with me.

You’re being manic right now where your sock is about to unravel, and I like it.

[VOTE: Jay] aubergine

I’d rsther do a Colin lynch today, but Mp is very convincing.
It’s not even what he’s saying, it’s how he’s saying it

This still makes no damned sense. How MP is saying a case has no bearing on whether it is correct in a game with no conclusive mafia checker.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I felt like I was spewing pure bullshit when I tried to make cases on these people:

nutella
Quin
Scotty

They're civilian reads.

~~~~~

I struggled more than I expected to generate a case that I liked on this guy:

ColinIsCool

The case can be made, but it isn't one that fills me with inspiration. I thought it would fill me with inspiration.

~~~~~

It was surprisingly natural and plausible to make a case on:

Dyslexicon

The case does require a lot of infusion from my own interaction with Dizzy, which invites personal bias on my part. With that in mind, I would appreciate feedback.

I felt a similar degree of confidence while casing these two, though without the same element of surprise:

Charlie Blackmon
lapluie

~~~~~

I didn't have to "try" to make a case on this guy, it just happened by the laws of nature:

Marmot