2018 Socky Awards Mafia (FINAL PRESENTATIONS!)

[Lunalee]

So G-Man is town.

I am suddenly even more unsure as to the rest of you. Though, just looking at the votes... That was hella dangerous. I think we can figure out a lot from that.

linki: Might not be a good look for Luna either. This vote would have been easy to sway.

HOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD LOOK FOR ME. I ALMOST DIED.

[speedchuck]

So G-Man is town.

I am suddenly even more unsure as to the rest of you. Though, just looking at the votes... That was hella dangerous. I think we can figure out a lot from that.

linki: Might not be a good look for Luna either. This vote would have been easy to sway.

HOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD LOOK FOR ME. I ALMOST DIED.

Because you didn't?

If you were town, and the lynch was tied town-scum, it would have only taken a nudge. That nudge didn't happen for some reason.

We had a similar lynch back in... Mortal Kombat? Anyway, it might be that you just already had scum on you. There aren't that many scum in this game, and DDL wasn't on you...

Actually, yeah. It's likely that you had one or two scum on you. Sabie might also be scum. In that case, you'd be town.

[S~V~S]

Jameson Abel <3

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Thanks for the game, Jay!

[G-Man]

Marvelous! We got one. No room for error though. I’m going to have some time tomorrow. I’ll revamp my spreadsheet and post some more screenshots. Now that we have a baddie in the mix, we can start stitching together scenarios of vote spreads and clusters. We can then read back through EOD’s and see which scenarios fall apart under scrutiny and which ones stick together.

Teammate behavior may be possible to find now, though the wording in the posts has me wondering about baddie BTSC. DDL was a specific role and aligned with the mafia, not just part of the mafia. I ran Outpost 31 with no baddie BTSC, so it’s possible something similar is going on here. I’m still going to treat it like normal mafia and assume teams for now.

I’m glad I’m not a complete dunce at this game.

[speedchuck]

Jameson Abel <3

!!!!

Relation to you?

[sabie12]

So G-Man is town.

I am suddenly even more unsure as to the rest of you. Though, just looking at the votes... That was hella dangerous. I think we can figure out a lot from that.

linki: Might not be a good look for Luna either. This vote would have been easy to sway.

HOW IS THAT NOT A GOOD LOOK FOR ME. I ALMOST DIED.

Because you didn't?

If you were town, and the lynch was tied town-scum, it would have only taken a nudge. That nudge didn't happen for some reason.

We had a similar lynch back in... Mortal Kombat? Anyway, it might be that you just already had scum on you. There aren't that many scum in this game, and DDL wasn't on you...

Actually, yeah. It's likely that you had one or two scum on you. Sabie might also be scum. In that case, you'd be town.

Finally got one this game! I was between voting you and ddl but alas I ended up going out and not really being here to change my vote. If I actually was scum I would probably have participated more this game because I would have had someone to talk to or have any idea what to do ever. I found it weird how Luna was all yeah speed is bad then when I agreed she's like nah dude why are you agreeing with your own opinion you must be super sketchy.

[sabie12]

also svs congrats on the whatever relation the baby is! Very cute!

[S~V~S]

also svs congrats on the whatever relation the baby is! Very cute!

Thank You!

Sorry for the giant apparently almost life sized picture,lol. It's my nephew, my brother Jareds son.

[G-Man]

More spreadsheet fun, now featuring baddie red!

OVERALL VOTES:

Spoiler: show

DAY 1 VOTES:

Spoiler: show

My fresh take in analyzing Day 1 is that Luna and S~V~S are not baddie teammates. Before S~V~S voted, there was a two-vote two-way tie between Enrique and Long Con (both civs). If S~V~S and Luna were teammates, there is absolutely no reason to take a two-way tie between two civvies and make it a three-way tie between two civvies and a baddie. Unless someone steps in it royally, you don't bus a teammate on Day 1. There is no benefit to disadvantaging your team like that.

Luna voted for DDL on Day 1 and was the only vote on him. That's plausible baddie behavior. So is S~V~S diversifying the mislynch options by making it a three-way tie between Enrique, Long Con, and Luna.


DAY 2 VOTES:

Spoiler: show

DAY 3 VOTES:

Spoiler: show

DAY 4 VOTES:

Spoiler: show

Luna and Sloonei were consistent in voting for reywaS D3 and D4.

DAY 5 VOTES:

Spoiler: show

S~V~S and Sloonei are consistent in not voting for DDL two days in a row. Day 5 also reemphasizes (for me) that S~V~S and Luna are not baddie teammates.

Sloonei starts the train on Luna. If you are baddie teammates and your third teammate is leading the poll, you do not try to CFD on another teammate in a MYLO/LYLO scenario. You bullsuit a case on a civvie in the hopes of stealing the win. Sloonei and Luna are not teammates.

Nutella was second on the Luna train. S~V~S was third. We've already established that S~V~S and Luna cannot be teammates. The Luna train was either the baddie team's attempt at winning the game by finding a civvie to lynch instead of DDL, it was or a pack of civvies panicking over DDL's lynch being "too easy" (and at least one baddie joining the fun to try to seal the win). It's too much effort for baddies to try to engineer a tie between two baddies. What's the point in working so hard at something that's just going to delay the end of the game? Neither Nutella nor Sloonei are teammates with Luna.

If Luna is bad, her remaining teammate is not G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, or Sloonei. If Luna is bad, then her teammate is either Speedchuck or Sabie. If Luna is civvie, then at least one of DDL's teammates may have voted for Luna.

If you suspect Luna, then you have to clear G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, and Sloonei.

If you suspect any of G-Man, Nutella, S~V~S, or Sloonei, then you have to clear Luna.

Discuss! Please also review the spreadsheet picks and let us know what other relationships you think you can rule out.

[Lunalee]

G-man thank you for that beautiful analysis. I could totally see Sloonei and SVS as scum-mates with DDL

[Lunalee]

Only concern is I'm not sure if DDL was openly aligned with the mafia, or if he just shared their win condition, and didn't know their identity.

[Sloonei]

I started the push against Luna. I was also one of the first on the wagon against DDL. I jumped off when the votes piled against him. I was paranoid. It was a potential MYLO situation and a bandwagon formed with 0 resistance.

SVS and Luna are the two I want to look at next, if I ever have time.

[G-Man]

Mentioning other players is part of the game. Here’s my breakdown on how many times DDL quoted, responded to, or mentioned the remaining living players:

G-MAN:
1) Ponders whether CBob & I have curses on Day 1.
2) Ponders if my M shenanigans have something to do with my Socky Award on Day 1.
3) Wonders why I was such a hot item on the D2 lynch poll on Night 2.
4) Wants me to elaborate after I list him as mafia.
5) Uses my gripe about lazy Sprityo train to vote for reywaS on Day 3.
6) Tries to side-step my suspicions of him on Night 3.

[G-Man]

My next review...

LUNALEE:

1) Tries to quash Luna’s sus of him looking for an easy lynch of someone who looks opportunistic by arguing that civvies look for opportunistic behavior too. WIFOM on Day 1.
2) Stunned by Luna’s “I look civvie because Enrique flipped civ” post Night 2.
3) Responds to Luna calling him out for cherry picking that post Night 2.
4) Explains his D2 EOD absence on Night 2.

[G-Man]

M PLUS 7 / SLOONEI:

1) Only mentions MP in the context of wondering if my M shenanigans meant my Socky was for him.
2) Quoteless response to Sloonei re: better lynch ideas on Day 5.

[G-Man]

Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

[G-Man]

Making good time here! Onward to....

SABIE12:

1) Soft defense of Sabie based on her cautious meta established in a prior game on Night 1.

[G-Man]

Maxing out the list with...

SPEEDCHUCK:

1) Responds to Speed’s question about lynch preference ( he favored Nutella and used Mac’s case to reinforce his tone read) on Night 3.

[G-Man]

May we discuss DDL’s fixation on Nutella? Read through his ISO (it’s really not that long) and share your interpretations.

[Sloonei]

Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

This one intrigues me.

[G-Man]

[quote=G-Man post_id=513881 time=<a href="tel:1549749328">1549749328</a> user_id=383]
Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

This one intrigues me.
[/quote]
Me too. Then again DDL’s lack of interaction with you intrigues me as well.

[Sloonei]

[quote=G-Man post_id=513881 time=<a href="tel:1549749328">1549749328</a> user_id=383]
Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

This one intrigues me.

Me too. Then again DDL’s lack of interaction with you intrigues me as well.
[/quote]
As it should. But I will note that MP was basically a no-show for the first 2 days, so I doubt anyone interacted with him much. i dunno. i haven't read much from the pre-Sloonei phase of this game/awards show.

[S~V~S]

Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

This one intrigues me.

Position, you don't know how to read me either, on any day. See GOC where you thought my genuine surprise and an incredibly Baddie McBadderson voting reason was me "not believing it myself".

DDL also probably knows that if you come after me I aggressively defend. Good or bad, I am super defensive. I am not an easy person to make a fake case on becasue I go down kicking and screaming. You don't know this about me?

[S~V~S]

ebwop, "surprise *at* an", not "Surprise *and* an"

[Sloonei]

Looking at those DDL/nutella interactions because I need a break from homework.

I do get what people are seeing in LC too, his call-out of cbob was opportunistic weaksauce. So rn it's between Epi and LC for me-- gimme a good Clásico boys

I had a sudden urge to call you out for being too much on the fence then I remembered that's beating a dead horse at this point.

But hey, gotta do it at least once every game I guess.

This is definitely a half-hearted jab at nutella. I can't decide whether that's half-hearted because this is a forced teammate interaction, or because he doesn't want to draw too much scrutiny on himself by going after her here.

Ugh, the poll has way too many single votes on it right now.

Maybe you could fix that?

Lol last time someone called Luna out for not practicing what she was preaching she was bad

I don't necessarily suspect her for it here though. Only so much one can do

But we only have 4.5 hours so yeah who should we start grouping votes onto? I'd love to hear thoughts other than my own

The way you start the sentence with "lol" before throwing shade at someone then saying you won't "necessarily" vote for them triggered my senses.

This post has a much different tone from the previous one. This looks like neither an awkward forced interaction nor a tepid half-assed suspicion. He goes directly at nutella for a pretty minor reason. The follow-up exchange suggests that DDL is backtracking and providing Generic Excuse #3.5 for the suspicion. I'd say this is a good look for nutella. DDL accuses her, but seems almost intimidated when she throws it back in his face. If they're teammates, I'd expect him to put some more phony pressure on her here.

His pressure on her gets more serious as the case gains traction and he ended up voting for her the last couple days. I would lean towards these two not being partners. DDL seemed to want to get nutella lynched, but he looked shaky in his early attempts to go after her, which suggests he might have felt vulnerable. nutella is lock town, no doubt about it, 100%, no ragrets.

[Sloonei]

Moving past Nutella for now because DDL’s focus on and interactions with her are extensive.

S~V~S:

1) Says he’s unsure how to read her on Day 4.

This one intrigues me.

Position, you don't know how to read me either, on any day. See GOC where you thought my genuine surprise and an incredibly Baddie McBadderson voting reason was me "not believing it myself".

DDL also probably knows that if you come after me I aggressively defend. Good or bad, I am super defensive. I am not an easy person to make a fake case on becasue I go down kicking and screaming. You don't know this about me?

I have seen mafia teammates keep a safe distance between each other and avoid firm stances on one another before.

[G-Man]

My take on DDL-Nutella is wrapped in tin foil. On the surface, it looks like he picked a civvie to tunnel on and kept circling back to it as his fallback. This burned me once or twice as a baddie when my tunnel target actually got lynched and it became obvious that I didn’t have any real reads on anyone else.

He uses auto-sus as his bases and selects a few posts that seem “just like baddie nutella” and then he doubles down on it when Mac posted his long, supposed take-down of Nutella.

It could be that easy- DDL picked Nutella as an easy target, especially when she won as a baddie so recently. It could also be an attempt at a long-game soft-bus turned hard-bus. But if we lynched Nutella, would we have found his prolonged focus on her sketchy?

In the words of [mention]Epignosis[/mention], don’t get cute. This is either a hyper-cute long-game gambit on DDL’s part or it’s him settling on an easy target to manipulate people toward.

I wouldn’t put it past DDL to try some kind of overarching master plan scheme but I also have a hard time believing that the baddies felt any need to try very hard in this game until around Day 4.

[G-Man]

My earlier analysis left out something.

If Sloonei starting the Luna train was the work of a panicking civvie, and Luna is a baddie, then I don’t see how Nutella nor S~V~S are her remaining teammate. It just seems silly to call attention to yourself to change votes so last-minute, only to be forcing a tie between baddie DDL and baddie Luna. A baddie flip for Luna would not have slowed down any suspicion on DDL. It’s wasted energy and the baddies don’t need to try that hard to play mind games that will fall flat.

[DharmaHelper]

Can't wait to see which award I win tonight

[Sloonei]

Something else I want to note about the luna wagon, for context, is that I picked her name without a very big reason behind the choice. I had some suspicions on her, so it wasn't a "random" or arbitrary decision, but I did it more for the sake of spurring discussion on players other than DDL, rather than to condemn luna specifically. But then things just kind of stuck there. I briefly tried to shift to SVS and was greeted by crickets.

Make of that what you will. To me it suggests slightly that luna is civilian, and it's possible that one of the voters on her is bad.

[G-Man]

Something else I want to note about the luna wagon, for context, is that I picked her name without a very big reason behind the choice. I had some suspicions on her, so it wasn't a "random" or arbitrary decision, but I did it more for the sake of spurring discussion on players other than DDL, rather than to condemn luna specifically. But then things just kind of stuck there. I briefly tried to shift to SVS and was greeted by crickets.

Make of that what you will. To me it suggests slightly that luna is civilian, and it's possible that one of the voters on her is bad.

Meaning S~V~S?

You just reached a townread on nutella based on the way DDL went after her. The Luna votes were you, Nutella, and S~V~S. If it’s not nutella, and you’re maintaining your innocence, that only leaves S~V~S in that scenario of yours, right?

Unless that was a subtle confession on your part.

[Sloonei]

Something else I want to note about the luna wagon, for context, is that I picked her name without a very big reason behind the choice. I had some suspicions on her, so it wasn't a "random" or arbitrary decision, but I did it more for the sake of spurring discussion on players other than DDL, rather than to condemn luna specifically. But then things just kind of stuck there. I briefly tried to shift to SVS and was greeted by crickets.

Make of that what you will. To me it suggests slightly that luna is civilian, and it's possible that one of the voters on her is bad.

Meaning S~V~S?

You just reached a townread on nutella based on the way DDL went after her. The Luna votes were you, Nutella, and S~V~S. If it’s not nutella, and you’re maintaining your innocence, that only leaves S~V~S in that scenario of yours, right?

Unless that was a subtle confession on your part.

SVS would be my priority, yeah.

My POE at the moment has me concentrating hardest on SVS, sabie, and luna (in that order). Luna is the closest to a town read of the three.

And just because I have a town read on a player right now (nutella, in the relevant conversation), it doesn't mean I should totally rule them out. I'm still not operating at full capacity and have hardly put in the work I normally would in a game. I should not consider any of my reads to be firm.

[G-Man]

My screenshots will still be correct even if I’m killed tonight. It may have seemed like vanity early on but I did it that way out of simplicity and to enhance usefulness after my death.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

End of night will be a bit late. Sit tight my friends.

[G-Man]

Meh. Not what I wanted to hear.

[Sloonei]

My screenshots will still be correct even if I’m killed tonight. It may have seemed like vanity early on but I did it that way out of simplicity and to enhance usefulness after my death.

I’m not sure what this post refers to.

[G-Man]

[quote=G-Man post_id=513902 time=<a href="tel:1549758431">1549758431</a> user_id=383]
My screenshots will still be correct even if I’m killed tonight. It may have seemed like vanity early on but I did it that way out of simplicity and to enhance usefulness after my death.

I’m not sure what this post refers to.
[/quote]


My spreadsheet screenshots all feature my name in a light shade of green, denoting my civvie status even before death. That makes them useful even after I’m dead.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Spoiler: show

G-Man has been killed. He was:

Spoiler: show

Vanilla civilian

In his back pocket was a folded envelope labeled "Best Civilian"...


GREETINGS, YOU PATHETIC SIMIAN-DESCENDANT CARBON-BASED LIFE FORMS. IT IS I, THE GAME, HERE TO PRESENT A RATHER UNINTERESTING AWARD THAT, FOR SOME REASON, GETS YOU HUMANS ALL EXCITED.

THE AWARD IS FOR BEST CIVILIAN. I DON’T SEE WHY I SHOULD BE TASKED WITH BESTOWING THIS TRIFLE THAT MARKS SOMEONE WHO HAS DISPLAYED STRENGTH AND SKILL AT BEING GOOD. WHY, I AM THE ULTIMATE EVIL IN THE UNIVERSE. WHAT PART OF THAT SUGGESTS GIVING THE SENTIENT BLACK SAUCER OF UNLIMITED CREATIVE AND DESTRUCTIVE POWER THE AWARD FOR GOOD TO HAND OUT? HONESTLY, IF IT WEREN’T FOR THE FACT THAT I PITY THE SIZE OF YOUR SPECIES’ UNDERDEVELOPED CEREBRAL CORTEX, I MIGHT JUST TAKE OFFENSE. LUCKY YOU THAT I HAVE COME TO EXPECT VERY LITTLE FROM YOUR KIND.

NOW FOR THE AWARD:

Spoiler: show

IF YOU ARE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT NUTELLA WON THE AWARD FOR BEST CIVILIAN, PERHAPS YOU SHOULD CONSIDER THE DATA. ALLOW ME TO ENLIGHTEN YOU. SPOILER ALERT- IT WON’T TAKE LONG WITH HIPPOCAMPI LIKE YOURS.

NUTELLA WON FIVE GAMES AS A CIVILIAN ROLE IN 2018. THAT MAY SOUND IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH, BUT SHE WON THOSE FIVE GAMES AMIDST FOUR DIFFERENT GAME TYPES- TWO JOBS, ONE SIDE MISSION, ONE BURGLARY, AND A SPECIAL GAME AS WELL. WINNING ACROSS SUCH A BROAD SPECTRUM OF GAME SHOULD LEAVE NO DOUBT THAT THIS AWARD IS MERITED.

CONGRATULATIONS, NUTELLA. HOPEFULLY I GET TO DIGEST YOUR MOLECULAR STRUCTURE SOMETIME SOON. HA-HA! HA! HA!

Spoiler: show

Day 6 begins now and will last 24 hours.

[Sloonei]

Congrats nutella, now show us why you won that thing.

[G-Man]

Makes sense. Good luck civvies and congratulations to nutella for the Socky!

[Sloonei]

I put a vote on SVS

[nutella]

Whoa. I am seriously surprised and pleased. Thanks all who voted for me, I really wasn't expecting it

[Sloonei]

Does anyone disagree with my POE of svs, sabie, and luna?

[nutella]

Does anyone disagree with my POE of svs, sabie, and luna?

Not really. I'm not 100% comfortable clearing you yet, though G-man thought that you should be cleared if I think Luna is bad, but I am still sorting that out. SVS and Sabie seem more likely.

I had more of a townread on SVS but again it wasn't heavily supported, and DDL's mention history with her is no good. [VOTE: svs] aubergine for now but I would be equally comfortable with a sabie vote and will still be watching luna closely.

[nutella]

Oh wait and speed is still around, why did we clear him again?

[nutella]

I personally don't think there is much reason to clear speed from last lynch/the ddl flip. He's definitely on the table for me today.

[nutella]

40 minutes left. Do I drop on DDL and solidify that or help a counter wagon?

Hm.

[VOTE: DDL] aubergine

Between DDL and Reywas, DDL comes off more structured and careful. Reywas is the more likely mislynch.

and apparently Lunalee moved right as I voted. Neat.

lol, vote reywaS with meeee

Should I though?

[VOTE: reywas] aubergine

I may not be coming back this evening. Stuff to do. Good luck, whoever's here

Yeah actually this is gross. [VOTE: speedchuck] aubergine

[Sloonei]

Oh wait and speed is still around, why did we clear him again?

He seemed active yesterday. Like, genuinely active, wanting to move things along. If we look at yesterday as a MYLO situation (which I am) then I think desperation is a good look. I’m open to other interpretations though.

Looking at the remaining players’ interactions with DDL seems like the next thing we should do.

[nutella]

I guess that's fair. His effort yesterday might be enough to counter his other bad looks.