An Australian Country Murder Mystery (Day 4)

[Sloonei]

Moving my votes to Quin.
[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Quin] aubergine

[nutella]

Uh, ok

[Sloonei]

Uh, ok

Do you agree or disagree with these votes?

[nutella]

I don't think quin looks good but do you feel more strongly about him than you do about Michelle?

[nutella]

I just feel like I missed something.

Is Dom's comment basically how you feel about Quin here?

Specifically voting off wagon when its pretty obvious that sabie is gonna move her vote to self preserve?

Just feels like Quin doesn't want to help either lynch train.

[Sloonei]

I don't think quin looks good but do you feel more strongly about him than you do about Michelle?

The last point I brought up about Michelle last night has me feeling a little less confident in her lynch. Quin strikes me as a viable alternative: he's been super lowkey, and when he has been around he's done absolutely nothing to rock the boat. His presence in this game has been super easy and non-confrontational. I don't associate those things with Quin's playstyle.

[Long Con]

The top exports of Australia are Iron Ore ($48.2B), Coal Briquettes ($47B), Gold ($29.1B), Petroleum Gas ($20.3B) and Wheat ($4.88B), so I'll keep the sabie vote where it is.

[nutella]

Wh

[nutella]

????

[nutella]

So... Quin/LC w/w anyone?

[VOTE: quin] aubergine what the heck let's see

[G-Man]

Now that I have a minute (sorry, job-hunting is a serious chore), I can post this from my spreadsheet. Pic spoiler tagged for those of you on phones with data to worry about.

Spoiler: show

All the votes are put in order as best I can track them through the thread. If someone didn't either use the vote tag or make a strong enough suggestion in the thread about when they voted, then I missed it. For instance, the timing of Tony's vote is up in the air. He didn't use the tag, and I estimated it based on when he was speaking strongest about nutella. If anyone remembers that vote appearing earlier in the order, please correct me.

The number appearing after someone's name indicates the order their vote was cast or changed in. Votes in gray italics are votes that were cast but later changed.

The first six votes came in during the first 24 hours of the phase. Only two of those votes stayed put- [mention]Long Con[/mention] and [mention]DFaraday[/mention]. After 24 hours, Jack had two votes. The momentum on Jack seemed to die somewhere around or after the time nutella and Epignosis voted for him.

The Tony train started when nutella only had one vote. Votes 7 through 13 came during the first 16 hours of the second day of the phase. Votes 14-20 all came within the last eight hours of the phase. What I found here is that Tony wasn't brought up as a third choice aside from Jack v. nutella because Jack v. nutella never really existed in earnest. The momentum was really a nutella v. Tony thing.

Epi followed Sloonei on Tony but then changed to nutella to humor Jack. Quin pops in to add to nutella's tally, tying things up between Jack and nutella (I think this is where I got my perception that it was a Jack v. nutella thing). Quin's vote is soft, with a loose suggestion that nutella set up Jack over the DF thing.

Epi then switches back to Tony because he's done humoring Jack. From this point on, Tony collects three more votes with just a few hours to go. I don't know that Tony's lynch feels like a surefire nutella save anymore. If Quin is bad and busing teammate nutella, then I would expect more detail and meat in his vote justification. His vote would have tied nutella and Jack, with Tony momentum building. Nutella wasn't moving her vote on Jack at that point out of self-preservation, so there was a need for Tony's total to at least equal Jack's total to force a tie.

Unless Quin thought that he had no choice but to vote elsewhere without looking suspicious, then I struggle to see him and nutella as teammate compatible. Tony had to vote for nutella because he civ read Jack. If nutella is bad, then I don't think I can rule out Dom from suspicion because his vote tied things up with Jack (and nutella if I goofed on Tony's vote timing).

So, if nutella is bad, then Dom, Michelle, and sabie are all possible teammates if a save was involved. Michelle still reads like the worst of the three to me. I am also concerned with Long Con and DFaraday parking votes so early on in the phase and just leaving them there. Did they just never come back or did they just not care? Early votes like that are fine for baddies to make in small games like this. It fits the M.O. of letting civvies fall over themselves and mislynch without much help from the baddies.

Does anyone see Quin and nutella as teammate compatible considering how the voting occurred? Up to now, most of my theorizing has centered on nutella being bad post-re-read. That's been shaken some in my mind when I take the votes into consideration. Quin still looks shady to me but I don't know that I can reconcile him and nutella as teammates. If nutella, then things fall a little into place. If Quin, then I'm not sure where to go next.

I've worked myself into paralysis by analysis and I need to step away for a little. (I also have to figure out how to set up and execute a video interview- )

[Long Con]

So... Quin/LC w/w anyone?

[VOTE: quin] aubergine what the heck let's see

That's what you use to implicate me? That post??

[nutella]

Well I already suspected you, and I suspect quin, so it would fit. Prove me wrong?

[Michelle]

The top exports of Australia are Iron Ore ($48.2B), Coal Briquettes ($47B), Gold ($29.1B), Petroleum Gas ($20.3B) and Wheat ($4.88B), so I'll keep the sabie vote where it is.

I strongly appreciate the geography lesson. What's the connection with the game though?

[nutella]

LC is being weird in a different way than is usual for him imo. I'm baffled.

[Long Con]

LC is being weird in a different way than is usual for him imo. I'm baffled.

Just trying something new. I'm Civ at heart.

[Long Con]

HEY I am usually weird??

[Long Con]

The top exports of Australia are Iron Ore ($48.2B), Coal Briquettes ($47B), Gold ($29.1B), Petroleum Gas ($20.3B) and Wheat ($4.88B), so I'll keep the sabie vote where it is.

I strongly appreciate the geography lesson. What's the connection with the game though?

Australia!!

[Michelle]

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

[Sloonei]

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

[Long Con]

Gotta go to a concert, good lynching to you!

[Michelle]

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

how do you understand the sentence I coloured in orange?
I see it as Sabie mentioning a suspicion towards you and Epi.

[Michelle]

Gotta go to a concert, good lynching to you!

what means "good lynching"? o.o

enjoy your concert

[Michelle]

waiting Sloonei's answer to see if I am not an idiot who didn't undertood a sentence.

[Sloonei]

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

how do you understand the sentence I coloured in orange?
I see it as Sabie mentioning a suspicion towards you and Epi.

Oh I misread your post, I thought you were saying my read confused you.

Epi has decided to give his vote to me today. He apparently does not have time to play the game fully, so he’s decided to trust me and vote for whoever I vote for. I assume that’s what sabie is referring to.

[nutella]

[mention]sabie12[/mention] do you suspect epi and/or sloonei?

[Michelle]

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

how do you understand the sentence I coloured in orange?
I see it as Sabie mentioning a suspicion towards you and Epi.

Oh I misread your post, I thought you were saying my read confused you.

Epi has decided to give his vote to me today. He apparently does not have time to play the game fully, so he’s decided to trust me and vote for whoever I vote for. I assume that’s what sabie is referring to.

What I don't understand is Sabie's stance.

And he looks convinced about me but for what reason ? I find it forced.

[Dom]

I don’t get Michelle’s angle here.

[Michelle]

is 11 PM and I am sleepy. I can't stay until Eod:/

maybe I can woke up later but i doubt.

[Michelle]

I don’t get Michelle’s angle here.

can you say it again?

[Michelle]

still I need to vote, i may fell asleep
[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

[sabie12]

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I see from this post that Sabie has 3 suspects.

Me, because I didn't defend myself.
Not much time ago a silly Michelle asked villager Jackofhearts to not lynch me because I will flip green and so on (MU game).Can you imagine he didn't want to hear about that?
Since then I put lower effort in self defense and I try to not put so much emotion in the game because what I want by playing is to have fun and to keep the game enjoyable.
Again I am sorry I was wrong about Tony. But you don't want to lynch me for wrong read, but because I don't defend like you would like.

Sloonei/Epi are linked in a read I don't understand. Are they suspicious or not?

oops time out
Going to do something irl and continue after, sorry I have few more things to say at this post

What is confusing about my suspicion of you?

how do you understand the sentence I coloured in orange?
I see it as Sabie mentioning a suspicion towards you and Epi.

Oh I misread your post, I thought you were saying my read confused you.

Epi has decided to give his vote to me today. He apparently does not have time to play the game fully, so he’s decided to trust me and vote for whoever I vote for. I assume that’s what sabie is referring to.

Yeah I was saying it was a weird dynamic because epi is kinda just following sloonei around and voting whatever he does. I was thinking that was due to epi being busy and unable to play.

[mention]sabie12[/mention] do you suspect epi and/or sloonei?

I'm not entirely certain about that. I think epi may actually just be busy and doing whatever so I wasnt really suspecting him. Sloonei on the other hand the one thing with him is that he started the train on tony and others followed (yes I know I was one of them) but he says he would have no motivation to do so as a baddie because there were already votes on jack so he could have just gone with that. maybe he would have done that though, had others not believed his case on tony. It was just a thought I've had in the back of my mind. Didn't think it was worth putting a lot of stock into unless he ended up doing that again or doing something more sketchy. The quick change to quin I would think is because quin is putting in minimal effort and voted without much explanation.

[G-Man]

nutella has been the focus of my lynch train theorizing up to now, but I see we are sending votes elsewhere (myself included as of yet).

Please everyone answer these questions in the thread. Considering the four people who have votes right now...


1) If we lynch Quin and he flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

2) If we lynch Quin and he flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

3) If we lynch sabie and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

4) If we lynch sabie and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

5) If we lynch Michelle and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

6) If we lynch Michelle and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

7) If we lynch nutella and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

8) If we lynch nutella and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

[sabie12]

The top exports of Australia are Iron Ore ($48.2B), Coal Briquettes ($47B), Gold ($29.1B), Petroleum Gas ($20.3B) and Wheat ($4.88B), so I'll keep the sabie vote where it is.

I think this is officially the weirdest reasoning anyone has ever given for suspecting me.

[G-Man]

Now for my answers:

1) If we lynch Quin and he flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

2) If we lynch Quin and he flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

3) If we lynch sabie and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

4) If we lynch sabie and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

5) If we lynch Michelle and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

6) If we lynch Michelle and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

7) If we lynch nutella and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

8) If we lynch nutella and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

1) Long Con or DFaraday

2) nutella

3) nutella

4) Michelle

5) nutella

6) nutella and either Dom or sabie

7) Michelle

8) Quin or Long Con

[Sloonei]

[mention]sabie12[/mention] if you have to choose, am I good or bad?

[G-Man]

nutella and Quin feel incompatible as teammates to me. Agree or disagree?

I don't think that lynching either Michelle or sabie clarifies as much as a Quin or nutella lynch would. Agree or disagree?

[Sloonei]

I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

[sabie12]

@sabie12 if you have to choose, am I good or bad?

I've mostly been town reading you so far.

[Sloonei]

Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

[Sloonei]

@sabie12 if you have to choose, am I good or bad?

I've mostly been town reading you so far.

Is there anyone you suspect, even just a little, who you feel isn't being talked about enough?

[Dom]

Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

Do you plan on answering the questions yourself?

[Sloonei]

Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

Do you plan on answering the questions yourself?

I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

[Dom]

nutella has been the focus of my lynch train theorizing up to now, but I see we are sending votes elsewhere (myself included as of yet).

Please everyone answer these questions in the thread. Considering the four people who have votes right now...


1) If we lynch Quin and he flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

2) If we lynch Quin and he flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

3) If we lynch sabie and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

4) If we lynch sabie and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

5) If we lynch Michelle and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

6) If we lynch Michelle and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

-----------------------------------------------

7) If we lynch nutella and she flips baddie, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

8) If we lynch nutella and she flips civ, to whom does that steer your focus toward in Day 3?

1) Long Con / DFaraday

2) nutella / Sloonei

3) nutella / Sloonei / Epi

4) Michelle / Long Con

5) nutella

6) Me (but i'm not bad) / Sloonei

7) Michelle

8) Quin / Long Con

G-Man did it mostly right.

[Dom]

Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

Do you plan on answering the questions yourself?

I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

"Explain why, but I won't participate"

[Dom]

The quin rush feels not great.

[Sloonei]

Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

Do you plan on answering the questions yourself?

I have not investigated players for associations between one another. I do not tend to do that until we've received our first positive ID of a bad guy.

"Explain why, but I won't participate"

Yeah, pretty much. What's wrong with that? I'm happy to see people pursuing this angle, but it's not a thing that I'm going to do yet. I'll respond to whatever flip we get when it happens.

[Sloonei]

1) Long Con / DFaraday

2) nutella / Sloonei

3) nutella / Sloonei / Epi

4) Michelle / Long Con

5) nutella

6) Me (but i'm not bad) / Sloonei

7) Michelle

8) Quin / Long Con

G-Man did it mostly right.

Explain why, but I won't participate.

[G-Man]

Quin is bad: Long Con or DFaraday

Quin is good: nutella

sabie is bad: nutella

sabie is good: Michelle

Michelle is bad: nutella

Michelle is good: nutella and either Dom or sabie

nutella is bad: Michelle

nutella is good: Quin or Long Con

Care to walk us through any of these, G-man? I'm particularly interested that nutella appears in both occasions if we lynch michelle. nutella's all over this in general. Do you think that points to her as a stronger suspect overall, or do you attribute her prevalence to her simply being more vocal than most players? What exempts Epi and I from appearing anywhere in your answers?

nutella is prevalent because she's my strongest suspicion right now. (I'm leaving my vote where it is for now because in my mind, if not nutella, then Quin.) In my re-read, I think I noticed some of the inconsistencies Jack spoke of. This is counter-balanced by some people stating that nutella tends to be wishy-washy as a civvie. I think that some of what she says doesn't feel like it has a firm foundation.

Here's the rundown:

Quin & nutella- Based on the vote timing (which I admit isn't the best thing to roll out on Day 2- but it's a tiny game!), I no longer feel comfortable with Quin being bad and voting for his teammate nutella the way the votes came in. It's reckless, which works in small games, but it's unnecessary. So, if Quin, then not nutella. If Quin is bad then my whole theory against nutella gets put on ice. Quin's vote wasn't as reckless if nutella is not a teammate. If Quin, then I start to suspect that nutella is a civvie and the baddies phoned it in on Day 1. That makes me look at the casual votes. LC and DF had more casual votes because they never changed despite being cast so early. They were comfortable leaving those votes on Jack and letting the rest of us screw things up on our own. If we mislynch a civvie nutella, then we know that the baddies were under no pressure during Day 1, which really makes me take a hard look at those people who are operating just at radar level (Quin, LC, DF). If nutella flips baddie, then I look to Michelle first, because she still reads the worst out of the later Tony voters. Time zones can screw things up for baddies and make them vote late. It's an avenue worth exploring if nutella is a baddie.

Michelle and sabie aren't as satisfying as primary targets for me. That is because most of my theorizing is founded on whether or not nutella is bad. If sabie is bad, it may well point to a sort of nutella save Day 1. If sabie is good, then "nutella or Quin?" is still my main quandary, but Michelle becomes my strong second. If Michelle is lynched and flips civ, then Dom and sabie become my strong seconds on the nutella side because of their later votes for Tony.

The reason you (Sloonei) and Epi are not on my list anywhere is because I'm only looking for the first two right now. You said you don't try to figure out association until you find one. I try to think of a primary and a strong second. Upon finding one of them, then I focus on the third wheel. You and Epi could very well be potential thirds under the right circumstances, but I'm not that far down the rabbit hole yet.