An Australian Country Murder Mystery (Day 4)

[Epignosis]

because scum partners tend to avoid acknowledging each other? that's a long supported Thing

[Epignosis]

So why vote for LC instead of LLD?

Spoiler: show

I mean like, ok, here's all the posts where LLD and Michelle interacted:

[Long Con]

I was once caught by a dubious LP member named Aldo for avoidance. I had not mentioned or interacted with a single member of my beleaguered baddie team and he nailed it, I was lynched, and everyone pointed and laughed.

However, I'm not Michelle's teammate.

[nutella]

So why vote for LC instead of LLD?

Spoiler: show

I mean like, ok, here's all the posts where LLD and Michelle interacted:

I mean, sure.

[nutella]

I was once caught by a dubious LP member named Aldo for avoidance. I had not mentioned or interacted with a single member of my beleaguered baddie team and he nailed it, I was lynched, and everyone pointed and laughed.

However, I'm not Michelle's teammate.

Man, screw that guy.

[nutella]

Talk about toxic. Lmao. LLD don't worry you're an angel

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I don't believe you believe what you're saying.

[nutella]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I don't believe you believe what you're saying.

I don't know what I believe. LC could be scum, LLD could be scum, I don't feel like there are very many leads to go on here

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I don't believe you believe what you're saying.

I don't know what I believe. LC could be scum, LLD could be scum, I don't feel like there are very many leads to go on here

I find it very strange that you voted LC (who is talking, participating, etc.) for not mentioning Michelle but didn't apply the same thinking to LLD (who is doing very little) and also didn't mention Michelle.

What's your take on Quin?

[nutella]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I don't believe you believe what you're saying.

I don't know what I believe. LC could be scum, LLD could be scum, I don't feel like there are very many leads to go on here

I find it very strange that you voted LC (who is talking, participating, etc.) for not mentioning Michelle but didn't apply the same thinking to LLD (who is doing very little) and also didn't mention Michelle.

What's your take on Quin?

Well I wasn't really thinking about LLD until she popped in today, but her exchange with Dom was questionable enough that I'd be fine voting for her.

Quin could be scum and I particularly think he is compatible with LC.

[Epignosis]

LC could be scum

LLD could be scum

Quin could be scum

Good talk.

Do you have a "maybe" to throw in there to make the salad complete?

[nutella]

LC could be scum

LLD could be scum

Quin could be scum

Good talk.

Do you have a "maybe" to throw in there to make the salad complete?

Yeah, G-Man.

[Long Con]

Talk about toxic. Lmao. LLD don't worry you're an angel

Absolutely, he was pretty evil. Also, we have two of his photographic prints hanging in our bathroom.

[Long Con]

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I don't believe you believe what you're saying.

I don't know what I believe. LC could be scum, LLD could be scum, I don't feel like there are very many leads to go on here

I find it very strange that you voted LC (who is talking, participating, etc.) for not mentioning Michelle but didn't apply the same thinking to LLD (who is doing very little) and also didn't mention Michelle.

What's your take on Quin?

Well I wasn't really thinking about LLD until she popped in today, but her exchange with Dom was questionable enough that I'd be fine voting for her.

Quin could be scum and I particularly think he is compatible with LC.

I don't feel all that Quinpatible. How am I with him? He's too busy being Australian to make a real effort right now.

[Epignosis]

LC, what's your opinion on nutella?

[Long Con]

I'm suspicious of her. I didn't like some of her stuff earlier, which I recall posting about, and this recent stuff was sketchy as well, although she is known for "wishy-washiness", so the "could be"s are on track with that. I don't like how she's coming after me.

[G-Man]

Nursing a sick four-year-old kept me from being more active today. I did the same kind of re-read and vote tracking for Day 2 that I did for Day 1. I'm still looking at the vote timing (for what it's worth). A few things that still stump me:

-My vote-tracking still suggests to me that Quin and nutella are incompatible as teammates. Has anyone dug anything up in the thread that suggests they could be teammate compatible?

-Epi's behavior is hard to read, but I think the way he went after Michelle Day 2 makes it hard for me to view the two as teammates. One of Epi's recurring mottos is "Don't get cute," and I think that the circumstances of his play would violate that if he were Michelle's teammate. Being Robin to Sloonei's Batman? Yeah, someone could fake that as a baddie. Busing a teammate hard for cred? Yeah, a someone could fake that as a baddie. But the combination of the two requires an awful lot of cuteness that Epi tends to avoid. Does anyone disagree?

-I feel like I'm softening on sabie. My notes suggested nutella could be connected to Michelle or sabie, but I hadn't gone so far as to connect trios together. Perhaps it the improbability that the three active female players in the game (up to now) are teammates. Am I being duped? I see some of you saying how she can be slippery and downplay her skills at this game.

[Epignosis]

-I feel like I'm softening on sabie. My notes suggested nutella could be connected to Michelle or sabie, but I hadn't gone so far as to connect trios together. Perhaps it the improbability that the three active female players in the game (up to now) are teammates. Am I being duped? I see some of you saying how she can be slippery and downplay her skills at this game.

I'd argue Michelle / nutella / LLD before Michelle / nutella / sabie.

[sabie12]

Weird (or should I say interesting) comeback from LLD. Not even really sure of the point of the disagreement between LLD and Dom. Like why try to bait people to lynch you if it's just going to end up making us more behind? We've been having a hard enough time getting on the same page as it is. LLD does come off as a bit defensive and aggressive. I don't know if that is just how they always play or because they're bad and trying to move suspicion elsewhere. I'm not a fan of the aggressive conflict playstyle but maybe they just do things differently elsewhere.

I apologize I had an 8 hour meeting and a support group and then d and d. I take on too many things in my life at once. Falling asleep

[nutella]

I'm suspicious of her. I didn't like some of her stuff earlier, which I recall posting about, and this recent stuff was sketchy as well, although she is known for "wishy-washiness", so the "could be"s are on track with that. I don't like how she's coming after me.

this is one whole mess of a post

[nutella]

Nursing a sick four-year-old kept me from being more active today. I did the same kind of re-read and vote tracking for Day 2 that I did for Day 1. I'm still looking at the vote timing (for what it's worth). A few things that still stump me:

-My vote-tracking still suggests to me that Quin and nutella are incompatible as teammates. Has anyone dug anything up in the thread that suggests they could be teammate compatible?

-Epi's behavior is hard to read, but I think the way he went after Michelle Day 2 makes it hard for me to view the two as teammates. One of Epi's recurring mottos is "Don't get cute," and I think that the circumstances of his play would violate that if he were Michelle's teammate. Being Robin to Sloonei's Batman? Yeah, someone could fake that as a baddie. Busing a teammate hard for cred? Yeah, a someone could fake that as a baddie. But the combination of the two requires an awful lot of cuteness that Epi tends to avoid. Does anyone disagree?

-I feel like I'm softening on sabie. My notes suggested nutella could be connected to Michelle or sabie, but I hadn't gone so far as to connect trios together. Perhaps it the improbability that the three active female players in the game (up to now) are teammates. Am I being duped? I see some of you saying how she can be slippery and downplay her skills at this game.

this is three whole mess of a post

[Epignosis]

Weird (or should I say interesting) comeback from LLD. Not even really sure of the point of the disagreement between LLD and Dom. Like why try to bait people to lynch you if it's just going to end up making us more behind? We've been having a hard enough time getting on the same page as it is. LLD does come off as a bit defensive and aggressive. I don't know if that is just how they always play or because they're bad and trying to move suspicion elsewhere. I'm not a fan of the aggressive conflict playstyle but maybe they just do things differently elsewhere.

I apologize I had an 8 hour meeting and a support group and then d and d. I take on too many things in my life at once. Falling asleep

An eight hour meeting? What in God's name for?

[Epignosis]

nutella, you're putting on a token effort. I appreciate that. You're not a civilian in this one though, and you have to be lynched.

[nutella]

I feel like G-man's iso looks like it contains a lot of effort but not a lot of actual gameplay. Mostly the isos he did -- I feel like he spent a lot of time on those and they didn't really go anywhere, while he wasn't really interacting much with people in more back-and-forth conversation. That's not necessarily scummy, could just be his meta (again I literally do not remember his meta whatsoever lol) or the way he feels like committing time/more analysis-like effort to this game. His push on me d2 was weird and based in his mathy analysis, he voted Michelle last minute when tagging on didn't change the result, and he's actually gone pretty quiet since Michelle's flip.

I think he's a plausible baddie. Someone tell me what I'm missing here.

[VOTE: g-man] aubergine

[Long Con]

I'm suspicious of her. I didn't like some of her stuff earlier, which I recall posting about, and this recent stuff was sketchy as well, although she is known for "wishy-washiness", so the "could be"s are on track with that. I don't like how she's coming after me.

this is one whole mess of a post

Yeah, but, you're calling me out on this, and is it really a baddie indicator? How does it make me less Civ in your eyes? I don't really see it, oh, my post has unsure ideas and opinions, let's comment on the nature of the post itself. This reaction makes me more suspicious of you.

[nutella]

nutella, you're putting on a token effort. I appreciate that. You're not a civilian in this one though, and you have to be lynched.

Nah.

Do me a favor and skim G-Man's posts, especially the latter third or so, and tell me why he can't be Michelle's teammate.

[nutella]

I'm suspicious of her. I didn't like some of her stuff earlier, which I recall posting about, and this recent stuff was sketchy as well, although she is known for "wishy-washiness", so the "could be"s are on track with that. I don't like how she's coming after me.

this is one whole mess of a post

Yeah, but, you're calling me out on this, and is it really a baddie indicator? How does it make me less Civ in your eyes? I don't really see it, oh, my post has unsure ideas and opinions, let's comment on the nature of the post itself. This reaction makes me more suspicious of you.

Idk. I currently suspect G more than you after skimming his iso again. I can see your weird tone coming from a town angle, you just keep pinging me at face value but who knows man, you are often zany.

[nutella]

G-Man's d1-2 iso is an Impossible Burger. It's made to look like it contains meat but it sure doesn't.

G-Man's d3 iso is a nothingburger.

[Long Con]

I'm suspicious of her. I didn't like some of her stuff earlier, which I recall posting about, and this recent stuff was sketchy as well, although she is known for "wishy-washiness", so the "could be"s are on track with that. I don't like how she's coming after me.

this is one whole mess of a post

Yeah, but, you're calling me out on this, and is it really a baddie indicator? How does it make me less Civ in your eyes? I don't really see it, oh, my post has unsure ideas and opinions, let's comment on the nature of the post itself. This reaction makes me more suspicious of you.

Idk. I currently suspect G more than you after skimming his iso again. I can see your weird tone coming from a town angle, you just keep pinging me at face value but who knows man, you are often zany.

Is Quin's shtick suspicious? Why should mine be? I feel like being this way. It's not based on my alignment.

[nutella]

Quin is sketchy too yes. Not just because of the gimmick but that may be part of it/he may be hiding behind it/not posting as much content because of it. A point in his favor over you however is that he has not been afraid to state more against-the-grain reads.

[G-Man]

I feel like G-man's iso looks like it contains a lot of effort but not a lot of actual gameplay...

...and he's actually gone pretty quiet since Michelle's flip.

I think he's a plausible baddie. Someone tell me what I'm missing here.

[VOTE: g-man] aubergine

Nursing a sick four-year-old kept me from being more active today.

Now I'm pretty good at deciphering the whimpering yammerings of a distraught preschooler.

The rest of the time since Michelle's flip I've been caught up in a whirlwind of job applications and phone interviews. Sorry. RL > mafia. Falling behind means catching up. I'd rather play catch-up and know what's going on than try to interact in the middle of something I may be missing context for.

And now sleep > mafia. Good night.

[Long Con]

I don't think I'm down with a G-Man lynch at this point.

[nutella]

I don't think I'm down with a G-Man lynch at this point.

What's holding you back?

I get the sense he's being given a pass for ....some reason. His content is really not that convincing to me.

[Long Con]

I don't think I'm down with a G-Man lynch at this point.

What's holding you back?

I get the sense he's being given a pass for ....some reason. His content is really not that convincing to me.

His content doesn't convince me he's bad though. I can totally buy that he was too busy to maintain the same quality of content. I don't believe that lynching his teammate would cause him to go into a worse-quality mode... I would think it would light a fire instead.

[DFaraday]

I feel like G-man's iso looks like it contains a lot of effort but not a lot of actual gameplay. Mostly the isos he did -- I feel like he spent a lot of time on those and they didn't really go anywhere, while he wasn't really interacting much with people in more back-and-forth conversation. That's not necessarily scummy, could just be his meta (again I literally do not remember his meta whatsoever lol) or the way he feels like committing time/more analysis-like effort to this game. His push on me d2 was weird and based in his mathy analysis, he voted Michelle last minute when tagging on didn't change the result, and he's actually gone pretty quiet since Michelle's flip.

I think he's a plausible baddie. Someone tell me what I'm missing here.

[VOTE: g-man] aubergine

If there's one thing I know about anyone's meta, it's that charts/lists/ISOs are entirely in G-Man's wheelhouse. I'm actually reading him pretty strongly civ, and would point out that he was reading Michelle as somewhat bad before he voted her. Also I'm not sure what you're getting at regarding G-Man's quietude. Is it a thing for baddie teammates to get quiet after one of them is lynched?

[Long Con]

Very similar to my thoughts, which makes sense because we are broooooooooos!

[nutella]

Ok I see where you're coming from. I guess it is sort of opposite to the point against LLD for coming in and playing right after the scum flip.
However I am not inspired by his d2 michelle-related content/amount of prior support for his vote.

[DFaraday]

Looking over the votes from Day 2 leave me feeling extremely confident in Dom and Epi. If Sabie is not a teammate of Michelle then it would make no sense for her teammates to vote her at that juncture, and if Sabie was also part of the team, they could have prodded/stuck with the Quin wagon that almost took off.

I'm feeling less confident in Nutella than I have for much of the game, but it seems unlikely she's on a team with either Quin or Sabie given the voting results as well as the suspicions cast between them.

I still don't have a good reason for ruling Quin out, though. And there's not a strong reason LC should be considered town, which (even though we're bros) means he's not cleared. My guess is that the remaining baddies at this point are one of the following combinations:

Quin/Sabie
LC/Sabie
Nutella/LLD
LLD/Any of the above

[sabie12]

Weird (or should I say interesting) comeback from LLD. Not even really sure of the point of the disagreement between LLD and Dom. Like why try to bait people to lynch you if it's just going to end up making us more behind? We've been having a hard enough time getting on the same page as it is. LLD does come off as a bit defensive and aggressive. I don't know if that is just how they always play or because they're bad and trying to move suspicion elsewhere. I'm not a fan of the aggressive conflict playstyle but maybe they just do things differently elsewhere.

I apologize I had an 8 hour meeting and a support group and then d and d. I take on too many things in my life at once. Falling asleep

An eight hour meeting? What in God's name for?

I work in the medical field and we have to sit down and discuss every single patient all day long. It's the worst.




I don't exactly get nutellas suspicion on gman or LLD vote on dom. I do see how nutella and michelle could be connected as she seemed to have defended her and talked about her being town. And then people seem to be suggesting that nutella and LLD could be connected so this would be the exact opposite approach to a teammate if that were the case. So then that would assume that in light of michelle flipping bad, nutella thought she needed to bus her other teammate and distance herself so that no one would think anything of it. And then proceed to make it a point to say that teammates try not to interact with each other much in the thread. She changed her vote off of her but still has at some point expressed suspicion on her that she could bring up later if LLD flips bad.

LC seems a little more genuine in his approach to today than he had been previously. Could his change in gameplay be from losing a teammate or just he wants to live up to what he said about coming in mid game to solve?
Quin is either hiding behind his gimmick to get away with being scummy or he's just busy and doesn't have time to dedicate to the game so he just kinda comes in doesn't read much, posts, and then leaves.
Currently I feel worst about nutella LLD and quin.

[Dom]

Nutella-- why LLD? Why LC??

LC-- why LLD? Why nutella?

LLD-- why nutella? Why LC?

[G-Man]

New looks at old data. Here is the revised Day 1 vote tracking:

Spoiler: show

And here is the Day 2 vote tracking:

Spoiler: show

Day 2 saw the following:
-Votes 1-4 were in the first hour of the day.
-Votes 5, 6, and 7 came over the next three hours.
-Vote 8 came in hour 6, and then there was an eight-hour gap before vote 9.
-A six-hour gap falls between votes 9 & 10. These were the last votes cast during the first 24 hours of the day phase.
-The remaining nine votes all happened between hours 40 and the deadline.

Analysis:
-The first five votes are spread across five different players. Vote 6 (Epi for Michelle) replaces Vote 4 (Epi for Sloonei- so he could see the poll). That makes it two for Michelle and one for each of Epi, nutella, and Quin.

-Vote 7 (Long Con) and Vote 8 (DFaraday) both land on sabie, making it two for both Michelle and sabie, and one for Epi, nutella, and Quin.

-Several hours later, Vote 9 (nutella) replaces Vote 2, washing away nutella's vote on Epi and pushing sabie into the lead by one.

-A few hours later, Dom casts Vote 10 on Michelle, bringing the poll to a two-way tie at three votes between Michelle and sabie. Both nutella and Quin remain with one vote apiece on them.

-A 17-hour gap, and a lot of discussion, ensues.

-In hour 40, Quin drops in and casts Vote 11 for nutella. In hour 41, sabie changes her vote to Michelle (Vote 12) out of self-preservation. It is now four votes for Michelle, 3 for sabie, and one for both nutella and Quin.

-BatSloon and Robinosis call Quin to task and move their votes off of Michelle in favor of Quin (Votes 13 & 14). This puts Quin and sabie in a two-way tie for the lead with three votes each, with Michelle now at 2 votes, and nutella with one vote.

-Nutella breaks the tie with Vote 15 in the 44th hour of the phase. Moving her vote makes it four for Quin, two for sabie, and Michelle, and one for nutella.

-Vote 16 comes from Michelle in the 46th hour. Rather than nudging Quin further into the lead, she votes for sabie (Vote 16). This makes it four votes Quin, three votes sabie, two votes Michelle, and one vote nutella.

-In the final hour of the phase, BatSloon and Robinosis switch again. This time they vote for Michelle (Votes 17 & 18), making it four votes Michelle, three votes sabie, two votes Quin, and one vote nutella.

-My vote changed at the last minute and it move to Michelle (Vote 19). That made it five votes Michelle, three for sabie, and one each for nutella and Quin.




Things I'm going to go back and look at today:

1) Anything post-vote from LC and DF. Both of them voted early in the phase and never moved their vote as new information was discussed. They both did the same thing Day 1. That's radar-riding behavior.

2) Why did nutella change her vote from Epi to sabie? It's convenient that her vote put sabie ahead of Michelle, who flipped mafia.

3) What convinced Dom to leave his vote on Michelle? How did that progression take place. The post containing his vote for her said "for now" but it ended up being for good. That might help me clear my Dom sus.

4) What direction the discussion too during long 17-hour gap between votes. I want to know that better so I can see if the late votes (BatSloon & Robinosis excluded) lack integrity.

5) Is there any indication why Michelle voted for sabie rather than pushing Quin further out into the lead?

[Dom]

G-Man, I'll answer this after school, as long as time allows, but can you @ me so I remember?

[Long Con]

Nutella-- why LLD? Why LC??

LC-- why LLD? Why nutella?

LLD-- why nutella? Why LC?

This posts kind of reeks. I don't find it all that genuine, some manufactured triad of callouts that requires no thought, just throws it all at three other players to deal with. Like, where does LLD suspect nutella??

I've stated why I suspect nutella in a couple of posts. LLD because she's so super-sketchy and interesting.

Dom doesn't feel real to me, I believe he's a baddie trying to put in legwork to feign towniness. [VOTE: Dom] aubergine

[nutella]

Hmmm

LC and LLD probably not w/w?

LC seems compatible with G-man though. Timing of the Dom vote is weird after my G-man vote.

How does no one see what I see in G? His "analysis" is such a waste of space imo. He's not going anywhere with it. And as I keep pointing out, his Michelle vote was not good

[nutella]

I have to admit though I had the same thought about that Dom post. Odd neutral-arbiter vibes.

[Long Con]

Hmmm

LC and LLD probably not w/w?

LC seems compatible with G-man though. Timing of the Dom vote is weird after my G-man vote.

How does no one see what I see in G? His "analysis" is such a waste of space imo. He's not going anywhere with it. And as I keep pointing out, his Michelle vote was not good

Those votes were not related, and if you want to connect me to Gman, then just quote my post where I say I don't want to Lynch him.

[sabie12]

Hmmm

LC and LLD probably not w/w?

LC seems compatible with G-man though. Timing of the Dom vote is weird after my G-man vote.

How does no one see what I see in G? His "analysis" is such a waste of space imo. He's not going anywhere with it. And as I keep pointing out, his Michelle vote was not good

I can agree that G man's most recent super long analysis post doesn't really seem to be concluding anything just explaining how votes went and then asking a lot of questions that he doesn't personally share his own ideas on the answers to. It's a lot of info without really sharing his own reads and thoughts on it.

[Long Con]

3) What convinced Dom to leave his vote on Michelle? How did that progression take place. The post containing his vote for her said "for now" but it ended up being for good. That might help me clear my Dom sus.

It could be a bus. His vote followed the strong Michelle-lynch start from Epi and Sloonei, so he wasn't the one pushing the hardest for Michelle. Then those two voted off and Dom stayed. Perfect bus-without-lynching possibility. Dom didn't really give a lot of reasons for others to vote there, just that Michelle was a common thread in the possibilities, along with a couple of other players. The votes swung back, Dom then had to choose whether to change his vote and risk looking like a teammate, or swallow it and try to look good.

His vote's in the perfect place for a bus. Looks a lot like my style of bussing, actually.

[sabie12]

Had a kind of scary car issue happen where my car wouldn't shift out of reverse and wouldn't shut off. Come to find out it's a recall that my dealer never notified me of that needed to be fixed. In the recall it even says may cause crashes. Now I have a scary drive over to the dealer tomorrow morning. So my anxiety is through the roof right now. Wish me luck guys

[Dom]

Nutella-- why LLD? Why LC??

LC-- why LLD? Why nutella?

LLD-- why nutella? Why LC?

This posts kind of reeks. I don't find it all that genuine, some manufactured triad of callouts that requires no thought, just throws it all at three other players to deal with. Like, where does LLD suspect nutella??

I've stated why I suspect nutella in a couple of posts. LLD because she's so super-sketchy and interesting.

Dom doesn't feel real to me, I believe he's a baddie trying to put in legwork to feign towniness. [VOTE: Dom] aubergine

This is entirely manufactured since you're the topic of debate today. Try harder.

I asked my top suspects to convince me whom to vote for amongst them.