Escape From Russia [GAME OVER]

[Long Con]

hey you have a little birdie!

[Michelle]

Maybe Michelle has a red check on Ash.

Is a read, but i was so often right in my gut reads that i am confident.

[tedxtr]

Maybe Michelle has a red check on Ash.

[Michelle]

hey you have a little birdie!

[TonyStarkPrime]

idk it’s just my perception but like michelle being like “im self voting so you kill ash after i die” feels fake because she really hasnt tried hard at all to kill ash while shes been here and i feel like that’s what a villager would do

Yes, I wouldn't have any reason to see Ash as a slam-dunk if Michelle flipped town.

huh there's another possibility here

Possibly... but unknown threat level. Err on the side of caution?

caution erring good

[TonyStarkPrime]

after that last game particularly

[TonyStarkPrime]

Maybe Michelle has a red check on Ash.

Is a read, but i was so often right in my gut reads that i am confident.

there's that scene where peirce is talking to the winter soldier and his maid comes in and he shoots her and more or less

[TonyStarkPrime]

Maybe Michelle has a red check on Ash.

I thought this at first though

[tedxtr]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

[Long Con]

idk it’s just my perception but like michelle being like “im self voting so you kill ash after i die” feels fake because she really hasnt tried hard at all to kill ash while shes been here and i feel like that’s what a villager would do

Yes, I wouldn't have any reason to see Ash as a slam-dunk if Michelle flipped town.

huh there's another possibility here

Possibly... but unknown threat level. Err on the side of caution?

caution erring good

after that last game particularly

And then I was like "But what are G-Man's Independent roles like?" So looked at Escape From Trump Tower...

Fuck the System- Early Day 5- Dyslexicon (SIDNEY BLUMENTHAL - THE KEYMASTER) fulfills his wincon. Long Con (TED CRUZ, vanilla civvie), Soneji (JEB BUSH, mafia power role- THE PARLIAMENTARIAN), and Funnygurl555 (LAWRENCE O'DONNELL, vanilla civvie) are gassed.

Oh yeah.

[TonyStarkPrime]

I think then we have to consider the other possibility

[Long Con]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

[TonyStarkPrime]

idk it’s just my perception but like michelle being like “im self voting so you kill ash after i die” feels fake because she really hasnt tried hard at all to kill ash while shes been here and i feel like that’s what a villager would do

Yes, I wouldn't have any reason to see Ash as a slam-dunk if Michelle flipped town.

huh there's another possibility here

Possibly... but unknown threat level. Err on the side of caution?

caution erring good

after that last game particularly

And then I was like "But what are G-Man's Independent roles like?" So looked at Escape From Trump Tower...

Fuck the System- Early Day 5- Dyslexicon (SIDNEY BLUMENTHAL - THE KEYMASTER) fulfills his wincon. Long Con (TED CRUZ, vanilla civvie), Soneji (JEB BUSH, mafia power role- THE PARLIAMENTARIAN), and Funnygurl555 (LAWRENCE O'DONNELL, vanilla civvie) are gassed.

Oh yeah.

dizzy killed you how did you forget :P

[Long Con]

Maybe Michelle has a red check on Ash.

Is a read, but i was so often right in my gut reads that i am confident.

there's that scene where peirce is talking to the winter soldier and his maid comes in and he shoots her and more or less

[TonyStarkPrime]

I advise at this point Michelle please remain completely absent from any deliberations regarding power roles, let's avoid anything that threatens game integrity

[tedxtr]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

no, she's appealing to us by AtEing instead of pushing for Ash

a villager asking to die instead of trying to guide town to vote on their red check is pretty inane

[Long Con]

dizzy killed you how did you forget :P

Most past games kind of blur together for me. I remember the awesome wins.

[Michelle]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

I said is a read.

[tedxtr]

also, do you think someone that has a red check goes "I can vote for myself but I am a villager, I hope town votes a wolf in the end though"

when they know who the wolf is

[Long Con]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

no, she's appealing to us by AtEing instead of pushing for Ash

a villager asking to die instead of trying to guide town to vote on their red check is pretty inane

It's lame, but it's not outrageous - too tired to bother fighting you, throws her hands up and lets us know the check.

I do agree that, despite pushing Ash, she hasn't really pushed him much. I should go back in her ISO and see why she suspects him, because I can't recall the case against him.

[Long Con]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

I said is a read.

Yeah, but by the rules, that's what you *would* have to say.

That said, I'm not at all invested in this idea. It just occurred to me and I said it.

[tedxtr]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

no, she's appealing to us by AtEing instead of pushing for Ash

a villager asking to die instead of trying to guide town to vote on their red check is pretty inane

It's lame, but it's not outrageous - too tired to bother fighting you, throws her hands up and lets us know the check.

I do agree that, despite pushing Ash, she hasn't really pushed him much. I should go back in her ISO and see why she suspects him, because I can't recall the case against him.

he asked Hally about what her opinion on Michelle is iirc

pretty wolfy that michelle acts like ash is outed based on that ; I read it as contrived confidence in a push that doesn't make much sense

fake bravado, basically

and her now posting "I always keep an open mind about people flipping villager" after she traded her life for Ash's seems pretty fake iyam

[Michelle]

michelle would gun for ash to die over herself if she had a red check, prettay sure

Is she not doing that?

no, she's appealing to us by AtEing instead of pushing for Ash

a villager asking to die instead of trying to guide town to vote on their red check is pretty inane

Whatever friendo

[tedxtr]

i hate 48/24 tbh

i should take that into account when signing up for games from now on

36/12 goat

[Vulgard]

*whistles*
*points at DrWilgy*

[Long Con]

*whistles*
*points at DrWilgy*

[Arete]

Can we somehow confirm that was when the vote was placed? For some reason I'm under the impression that Tony was already at 4 before the TH push gained traction. But, again, I can't really tell.

I know that when I was in the thread, the wagons were 5/5 before I switched, and 4/6 TSP/TH after I switched

I think LC's vote was the only one after mine? not positive

[Long Con]

Can we somehow confirm that was when the vote was placed? For some reason I'm under the impression that Tony was already at 4 before the TH push gained traction. But, again, I can't really tell.

I know that when I was in the thread, the wagons were 5/5 before I switched, and 4/6 TSP/TH after I switched

I think LC's vote was the only one after mine? not positive

That was the situation when I cast the final vote on Tony.

[G-Man]

I have seen some chatter about self-voting, so I am taking this opportunity to remind everyone of the rules:

RULES AND WHATNOT


This closed setup game is for 15 players. As a Heist, there are only three power roles in the game. I will be using the following standard G-Man Game matrix:

	1	2	3
A	LOL	OMG	WTF
B	FFS	Free Space	JFC
C	GTFO	YCBS	STFU

Gameplay
1. Days are 48 hours long. I will do everything in my power to keep poll deadlines consistent.
2. Nights are 24 hours long. Getting night PMs in to the host in a timely fashion helps to keep things moving.
3. Only those players who have BTSC may communicate with each other outside of the game thread but ONLY in designated BTSC threads or chat rooms. For everyone else, no game-related discussion is permitted outside the game thread.
4. Votes in the poll are the only votes that count. It's helpful but not mandatory that you declare your vote in the thread in a way that stands out to the host.
5. All votes are changeable all the way up to the deadline.
6. A tied day poll will result in no death. Votes matter. There will be no coin flips to determine poll results.
7. Standard alignment wincons are in effect unless otherwise stated.
8. Dead is dead; you don't get to come back from that. Dead players will have their BTSC rights removed.
9. Roles will be revealed upon death.
10. Additional gameplay elements will be added/revealed on an as-needed basis.
11. I will probably end phases between 9:00 and 9:30 p.m. EST for this game. Any earlier is a challenge for me with getting the kids to bed.


Rules
1) Respect your fellow players, your host, and your Facilitator.
1a) Don't be an asshat.
1b) Don't get butthurt.
2) If you feel like another player is out of line or making/taking things personal/ly, contact the Facilitator, sabie12.
3) No BTSC regarding the game outside of the game thread(s). Players are told in their rolecard if they have BTSC. If you don't have it, don't engage in it. Violating this rule will result in a modkill.
4) No editing or deleting posts.
5) Self-voting is prohibited.
6) Double-targeting is prohibited.
7) Info-dumping and/or power-role-claiming is forbidden. Don't break games, build cases.
7a. Thou shalt not fake-claim a power role either.
8) Off-topic posts should be in OT Green.
9) Dead players are to post in Dead Red.
10) Non-Players should post in Non-Player Blue.
11) This is the host's color. Do not post in this color.
12) Participation is polite to everyone involved. If I feel you may not be paying attention to the game, I will reach out to you. Replacements and modkills may be employed if necessary. If you sign up, please play. If you can't play, request replacement.
13) Additional rules will be added/revealed on an as-needed basis.

[mention]112[/mention]
[mention]Arete[/mention]
[mention]Ash Lael[/mention]
[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]
[mention]Epignosis[/mention]
[mention]Hally[/mention]
[mention]Long Con[/mention]
[mention]Michelle[/mention]
[mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention]
[mention]Poison Chan[/mention]
[mention]tedxtr[/mention]
[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]
[mention]Vulgard[/mention]

[Ash Lael]

Ok, just caught up with the overnight backlog. Will be here and present for EoD after I get my kids of to school etc. Quick couple of points.

Wilgy is a bad wagon. We should not be lynching a hard null slot when there are actively wolfy players on the table. It’s especially WTF that Vulgard is hard pushing Wilgy when Wilgy anti-aligns with Vulgard’s scumread Tony. Michelle is a good wagon, Long Con is a good wagon. People should get on one of those.

Hally said she felt like people were just sheeping her old LC push and I personally am slightly annoyed by that. I put effort into developing and evaluating and explaining my case on LC which she didn’t even acknowledge to then just dismiss in that way. No big deal, but I’m irked.

I’m in agreement that Michelle does not believe her case on me. Stuff like “he talked to Hally about me” and “he’s too scared to push a lynch” range from nonsensical to obviously false and she hasn’t pursued it with anything like the kind of heat that town Michelle brings. I continue to believe this slot flips red.

I’ll be back later. Let’s kill a wolf today guys.

[Arete]

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen Michelle talk about self voting before

what alignment was she

[Long Con]

Actually that vote count makes me think LC pretty much has to be a wolf. Regardless of Tony's alignment.

The TH wagon has Nanook and Hally, who are very likely just town. Dead town tutuu. And then Arete, Wilgy, and Tony.

Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy.

If there's not two wolves on the wagon, then either 2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely - Michelle was hard on dunya so there's probably a disassociation there, and the other is 112 who is probably just town - or there had to be a wolf on the tony wagon. And LC is the only plausible option I can see.

So to sum up there are three possible worlds I can see.

In one, Arete has pulled off the mother of all pockets on Vulgard and switched from the high value town Tony lynch to killing a 2 poster late in the day for no discernible reason.

In one, LC is a wolf.

In one, our PoE is wrong and we have a deepwolf.

Someone poke holes in my logic.

Assumes Nanook and Hally are town. Fine. Could be wrong.

"Tony disaligns with both Arete and Wilgy. So if there's two wolves on the wagon it's exactly Arete/wilgy." Why can't Tony be bad with either of them again?

Your whole case here hinges on "If there's not two wolves on the wagon". This is the world that you've contrived the case around, as if it's a lock.

Also hinges on "2/3 of the wolves had to be offwagon, which seems unlikely" Why should that be unlikely? It's not an insane idea, it's as plausible as anything else.

Michelle disassociated with dunyapignosis? I know you're new here, but we invented a sneaky trick called "distancing" that wolves sometimes use. Note that Michelle is not pushing for Epi's death now, even after I made a case against him.

And the casual "112 is probably town", great!

You act like you have some powerful logic working here to incriminate me, but it's completely full of holes and relies on a grand alignment of off-handed possibilities.

[tedxtr]

I hope we don’t yeet outside of Michelle today

And if we do, it better be a wolf

And and if we wagon Wilgy after wagonning TH yesterday he better be a wolf because it he’s a villager I’m gonna lose my damn mind and patience and strength all at once

[tedxtr]

I hate EoDs being at 5AM

[tedxtr]

Also make sure you note your votes down this time around

[Arete]

okay I'm just going to jot down brief thoughts on all the wagons, by which I mean 'all the people with votes on them' since none of them have very many

112 - I thought the way they came into the thread swinging mid-D1 to call one of the most consensus villagers obvious mafia was pretty unlikely to come from scum

Ash - has a lot of conviction in his reads, think he's probably town

Wilgy - done nothing, can die, might or might not be a hit but I've seen nothing to specifically make me think he's a villager

Epi/Dunya - remember literally nothing from this slot but I think that's on me

Long Con - some of their posts from yesterday were pinging me, I pointed them out at the time, I'm not really sold by the 'last time he was scum and solvy at the beginning so this time he's town because he didn't do that' argument because that's a pretty easy thing to change especially given that he was apparently caught on that last time

Michelle - they're posting way more than in finale, but I really hated the comment about just self-voting, like, that's the sort of thing I expect from FoL people not from theoretically-competent players like Michelle. kind of conflicted on this slot.

TSP - was pinging me yesterday but they had some really villagery posts around/just after EoD so I think they're probably town

[Arete]

not thrilled with Ted ignoring my questions about his read on me but maybe he just didn't see them or thought they were rhetorical or something

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’m pretty sure I’ve seen Michelle talk about self voting before

what alignment was she

If the answer was scum I’d be voting her wouldn’t i

[Vulgard]

I'm really not feeling Michelle as much as you guys are.

[Vulgard]

Think I'm staying on Wilgy, sorry.

[Epignosis]

My Internet went out last night and I've been at work all day until now. I'm not inclined to read the intervening pages (as work now = staring at a screen 100%), so if there is something revelatory or something you feel would be important for me to note, let me know.

[Epignosis]

Unless you guys wanna take out Epignosis today?

You have to buy me chocolates first.

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine His ISO is really weak, and his votes even more so. He has, like, one read: Hally is town. Some softball criticism of the Day 1 lynch result, but none of his own solving conclusions about it. Some light, easy, vaguely-supported suspicions so that he can have a vote to cast.

He gets a little more animated when discussing... not chopping a low-poster twice in a row. Woooo. Real hardline, edgy opinions on the line here. I guess that's two reads, because "Wilgy prob not mafia" is in there too. Percentage of posts, that's his main platform in the game.

What would a strong vote look like to you?

[Long Con]

Unless you guys wanna take out Epignosis today?

You have to buy me chocolates first.

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine His ISO is really weak, and his votes even more so. He has, like, one read: Hally is town. Some softball criticism of the Day 1 lynch result, but none of his own solving conclusions about it. Some light, easy, vaguely-supported suspicions so that he can have a vote to cast.

He gets a little more animated when discussing... not chopping a low-poster twice in a row. Woooo. Real hardline, edgy opinions on the line here. I guess that's two reads, because "Wilgy prob not mafia" is in there too. Percentage of posts, that's his main platform in the game.

What would a strong vote look like to you?

Votes attached to good cases make the cut.

[Epignosis]

Unless you guys wanna take out Epignosis today?

You have to buy me chocolates first.

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine His ISO is really weak, and his votes even more so. He has, like, one read: Hally is town. Some softball criticism of the Day 1 lynch result, but none of his own solving conclusions about it. Some light, easy, vaguely-supported suspicions so that he can have a vote to cast.

He gets a little more animated when discussing... not chopping a low-poster twice in a row. Woooo. Real hardline, edgy opinions on the line here. I guess that's two reads, because "Wilgy prob not mafia" is in there too. Percentage of posts, that's his main platform in the game.

What would a strong vote look like to you?

Votes attached to good cases make the cut.

Oh.

I'm trying out a new style.

[Long Con]

Unless you guys wanna take out Epignosis today?

You have to buy me chocolates first.

[VOTE: epignosis] aubergine His ISO is really weak, and his votes even more so. He has, like, one read: Hally is town. Some softball criticism of the Day 1 lynch result, but none of his own solving conclusions about it. Some light, easy, vaguely-supported suspicions so that he can have a vote to cast.

He gets a little more animated when discussing... not chopping a low-poster twice in a row. Woooo. Real hardline, edgy opinions on the line here. I guess that's two reads, because "Wilgy prob not mafia" is in there too. Percentage of posts, that's his main platform in the game.

What would a strong vote look like to you?

Votes attached to good cases make the cut.

Oh.

I'm trying out a new style.

Oh, sorry, carry on then.

[TonyStarkPrime]

chop options, ordered:

1) wilgy
2) michelle
3) I dunno 112
4) onions
5) lc

[DrWilgy]

Lol TSP's a coward

[DrWilgy]

Someone answer why TSP went from being suspect number 1 vs now.

[112]

If Imma try a brazen unfounded soulread of Michelle:

Town:
112
Arete
Hally
tedxtr
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME
Vulgard

Towny:
Ash Lael
Michelle
Poison Chan


PoE:
DrWilgy
Epignosis (replaced dunya)
Long Con
TonyStarkPrime

PoE is cut down to 4.

[112]

gonna look into nanook over the coming days just to be sure i'm not missing anything there. he feels good to me rn though.