Grasslands [Game Thread]

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Alison had a solid grasp of the game and thought thun was mafia. Her read on me has fluctuated seemingly to fit thread feeling at the time (this is a weak one). If it's not her I have to potentially consider spf/nutella and I don't want to.

[tutuu]

alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison alison goat sheep alison

[tutuu]

hot diggity damn thats a lot of words spf darlin. i will start my next morning with a fresh dose of spf

[staypositivefriend]

[mention]nutella[/mention] - help me see a thunalscum world, please

[tutuu]

dude mafia is like, a zoo dude

sheep

goat

wolf

this is, like, trippy

[nutella]

@nutella - help me see a thunalscum world, please

idk I should put in some work and look at her sloonei and lc interactions but a lot of her posting/tone in general feels kinda stiffly analytical, like she doesn't have the "it" of townie spark when she's solving, and her self awareness particularly about the grasslands and also about the potential wifom of the nightkills has been giving me some off vibes

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Fwiw I think that tone stuff might just be Thun, idk if I'd really bank on that tbh

[nutella]

yeah idk. I feel like I found her pretty townie-feeling on day 1 of the lendun game but still it's not the most reliable indicator

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I mean idk tbh I thought she was town for a large chunk of the game so

Maybe I’m not the best judge lol

But yeah I get the impression that “flat” tone or whatever is just kinda her rather than being AI

But at the same time I think she’s the best kill soooooo...whatever gets you there I guess kek

[staypositivefriend]

@nutella - help me see a thunalscum world, please

idk I should put in some work and look at her sloonei and lc interactions but a lot of her posting/tone in general feels kinda stiffly analytical, like she doesn't have the "it" of townie spark when she's solving, and her self awareness particularly about the grasslands and also about the potential wifom of the nightkills has been giving me some off vibes

yeah i get that, i guess that i just expect the case on her to be more "slam-dunk" than it is, you know?

like it feels like the core reason to be suspicious of thunal is: "she doesn't have the best tone all of the time and other people have towntold more" and while that's all well and good, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in me. it reminds me of the situation with mist in the final game

[nutella]

Skimming Thunal's iso. Some early pushes on both Sloonei and LC that look decent, but on D2 she pulls back on Sloonei with a sort of TWTBW justification for townleaning him. I'm trying not to confbias too hard and I can see her progressions genuinely coming from town as well, but there's an argument to be made that she started off distancing from both partners but once both were more in the immediate POE she split up her stances on them and continued to let LC sink while trying to keep Sloonei afloat longer.

There's a lot that I can see both ways in her iso tbh. Game is hard.

[staypositivefriend]

@anyone who townreads nanook -

can you give me your best and most confident reason for tring him?

[staypositivefriend]

i hate hate hate that the deadline is in 16 hours and i still feel like there's a million things i need to think about and discuss

[tutuu]

I read spfs stuffs - looks good. Hot diggidy damn if she puts so much effort as scum and makes such deep analyses

Thankfully i wont have to worry about f3 since nutella is always there and if im one of the 3 and ill know who to tunnel

So i just see whats in front if me

[tutuu]

Im fairly certain that the name of the last member of the mafia starts with "T" guys

[staypositivefriend]

is the fact that thunal is the only person that was sent to the grasslands twice significant?

it probably isnt, but that thought just occurred to me

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@anyone who townreads nanook -

can you give me your best and most confident reason for tring him?

I cheated and read his role pm.

[staypositivefriend]

how did thunal and sloonei interact?

if i really wanted to stretch it, i could say that viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675090#p675090 is a soft defense of sloonei - i find it interesting that thunal specifically brings up an example of hally's scum game and town game being similar as way to discredit the sr on them, but she doesnt do the same thing for sloonei

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675342#p675342 is perhaps a little uncomfortably hedgy - thunal is saying a lot of words about sloonei and going out of their way to justify their lack of certainty about sloonei's alignment

it's the same story w/viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675402#p675402 - the issue for me is not the null read, but the fact that thunal feels the need to bring attention to her null read on sloonei

interesting that thunal's read on sloonei becomes a scumread on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675604#p675604. i do like this, but i dont exactly love the fact that thunal immediately gives herself an "out" for pushing on sloonei on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675611#p675611, by remarking that she doesnt want to push on sloonei hard until he tells more one way or the other

i like viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676065#p676065 - thunal is bringing attention to sloonei in a way im not sure she would if they were partnered

thunal goes back to nullreading sloonei on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676226#p676226 and says it's because of jagged's tr on him - that's a little bit flimsy, but i could see it coming from a genuine mindset

sloonei gets upgraded to a townlean on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676986#p676986

d3 happens, and thunal starts changing her tune toward sloonei as the day progresses. she says that her analysis of the lc/sloonei interactions on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=678018#p678018 point to sloonei being scum, and she becomes overall more skeptical of him

from this point forward, thunal starts pushing on sloonei relatively aggressively, and she helps orchestrate the chop on him on d3. (it's worth noting here that thunal does hedge/show doubt about her push on sloonei throughout this process, but it does not feel unorganic to me). i do think that viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=678663#p678663 is a pretty good post with this in mind, because thunal seems more interested in covering her bases if sloonei flips town than she is in getting towncred if she's right - that's prolly indicative of someone who DOESNT have tmi

how did sloonei interact with thunal?

sloonei's choice to highlight the carotte/thunal interactions on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675514#p675514 is interesting. at the time of the post, thunal was certainly not a "universal' townread by any means, and sloonei's analysis here would position him perfectly to push for a carotte mischop if thunal ended up being chopped on d1. (at least, i take this post from sloonei to be implying that thunal made some kind of weird perspective slip with her partner, but i could be misunderstanding his intent)

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675621#p675621 is okay - sloonei is using very careful language with thunal and subtly backing off of the push on her

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676652#p676652 is weirdly sassy from sloonei

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676657#p676657 is an example of hedginess from sloonei that actually makes me worried a bit - he's treating thunal with kids gloves but still trying to throw shade on her and make her look like a prospective scum candidate

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677571#p677571 it's notable that sloonei changes his read on thunal in this post - gth i would say this points to thunal being town

conclusion: thunal protected/defended sloonei quite a bit on d2, and her attitude toward him on the rest of the days ranged from "passive toward sloonei" to "actively suspicious of sloonei". the biggest takeaway is the fact that thunal's attitude on sloonei shifted on d2 in a way that i dont find entirely natural, and it almost makes me feel like she felt reluctant to bus sloonei so early in the game - esp since her attitude toward sloonei changed quite a lot on d2. sloonei also consistently framed thunal as someone who "could" be mafia, but he hedged on her alignment significantly before upgrading her to a tr shortly before his death

[staypositivefriend]

hmmm

[staypositivefriend]

i am going to do a silly brand new exercise called "If I Live In A World.." where i describe the type of narrative and the type of "world" that we need to be living in for each player here to be mafia, in an attempt to figure out what the most likely possibility is. i don't know if this will yield useful results, but it's worth a shot

If I live in a world where Nutella is mafia, then it means that she went out of her way to hardbus Long Con and almost single handedly ensure that he gets chopped over plenty of other viable chop candidates on d2. it also means that nutella hardbussed sloonei on d3 and planned to skate by on the towncred she got from that push into the f3

If I live in a world where Nanook is mafia, then it means that nanook took a relatively passive (but not defensive) approach toward the chops on long con and sloonei - pushing on them and throwing shade on them, but not particularly committing to them being chopped until their chops were already foregone conclusions. it also means that nanook was relying on his towncred/attitude to carry him all the way to f3

If I live in a world where Tutuu is mafia, then it means that tutuu went out of her way to pressure sloonei HARD on page 2 of the game, and that sloonei went out of his way to ignore her and act passively toward her attempts to engage with him. it means that tutuu pushed aggressively on sloonei throughout much of the thread, but chose to change her read on sloonei and get paranoid multiple times, when she would not reasonably get any "towncred" for doing so

If I live in a world where Thunal is mafia, then it means that thuanl decided to throw shade on sloonei and push on him, but not commit to the chop on him until d3 when it was clear that sloonei was the most likely person to go down. it does also mean that thunal aggressively bussed long con and pushed for his chop when it wouldn't be advantageous for her to do so. she would have to rely on the towncred she got for that and the push on sloonei to carry her all the way to the f3

[staypositivefriend]

i dont know - i think ive actually talked myself into a thunalscum world just a little bit. it's a narrative that makes sense to me to a certain extent (ie: that thunal chose to hardbus sloonei on d3 when the timing was advantageous for her to bus, but defended/shielded him to the best of her ability before that point). it's not exactly a world that i feel great about, but it makes more sense than the other "worlds" that i've presented here. what am i missing?

[staypositivefriend]

me talking to myself in an empty thread knowing full well that people are only going to respond after ive fallen asleep: The Grind Never Stops

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

LC was not a foregone conclusion when I voted him

[staypositivefriend]

LC was not a foregone conclusion when I voted him

i just went back to verify this and youre actually right - you did more or less lock the vote onto long con when his chop was not 100% decided. (you mentioned this on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677816#p677816)

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I’ve mentioned it a lot at this point tbh

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

I only have like five posts you’d think people trying to sort me would read them!

[staypositivefriend]

cool, i'm going to bed shortly and i doubt that i will be here for the deadline tomorrow - so i voted for thunal. i let my trustfall/distrustfall and my analysis of thunal's interactions fester in my brain for a little while, and a thunalscum world is where my gut is pointing me when i think about the game holistically. if im wrong then that's okay, it just means the last scum is playing really well and i haven't been able to catch them today. i've tried to think outside the box today and look for a potential deepwolf in nanook/tutuu/nutella, but i just dont see one. that's where im at right no

[Thunal33]

I can't really address the suspicion on me because of my tone, but I know a lot of people said I had great tone in earlier days (such as Martin and SPF). SPF really just seems town to me. Sometimes I think it might just be SPF but I can't actually see it when I read her posts. I don't see it being anyone but Nook at this point even though I thought his ISO looked towny. I'll look at the other side of the interactions and how Sloonei and LC acted towards Nook. I hope to see some "setting up the last wolf to go deep" posts in there.

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Not sure if I’ll be back for EOD or not, putting a vote on thunal

And one on tutu, to make sure mafia have to put her in grasslands if they want her there.

[Thunal33]

Thunal-on-Carotte is the weirdest thing in the game so far.

Spoiler: show

I don't get the commotion about Sloonei tbh, I believe that he believes in his read. :P

Me neither tbh, I looked at Sloonei's ISO and the only suspicious thing I could find is a coffee tell ish thing about him posting 2 posts in a row about being distracted and tired but that's really tiny. His read on Nutella looks fine to me. I'll wait for his thoughts in the morning to actually try to read him. In champs finals (which is the only time I've seen him play) he definitely tried hard and was logical but he didn't have the same obvious town energy that, say, SPF or JJJ did so it might be hard to read him.

I like Thunal more today.

I'm not sure if everyone understands that the person sent to the grassland only gets to shoot *among* the persons in the grassland? (most voted, least voted, sent by scum)

I think tutuu & nutella are town. I liked Nanook/SPF/nova/LC/JJJ with no particular order.

I have some mixed feelings about Alison. I think that the only thing I really disliked is how she asked Hally why I wasn't on their read list (I thought it was pretty evident that they jsut didn't have a read on me) and then not really followed up when Hally answered that they didn't have a read yet.

What do you think town!Alison would follow up that read with? I don't follow up on every question that I ask that's been answered in a light game since I don't want to waste a post saying "oh, okay" if that would be my answer.

A fairly uneventful back-and-forth between them. Thunal doesn't have much to say about Carot, but carot town-reads Thunal.

Spoiler: show

I ran through Thunal's posts to check out my town-inclined intuition. I like the progressions/language of their reads. I have one question for @Thunal33: any suspects? You've given town credit to Martin, Alison, nutella, and Hally (perhaps among others if I missed them). I appreciate POE work; I just don't know your game. Perhaps you can chirp in too @Hally -- do you associate that kind of POE-centric methodology with Thunal?

Yes, I tend to make townreads first and it's hard for me to find suspects early on. I mainly have Sloonei as "not a townread or townlean" rather than a suspect, same with Carotte.

Thunal gives a fairly hedgy read on Carotte, in conjunction with Sloonei. This is Thunal making a direct statement related to the alignment of the player he identifies as "Carotte". It is not pointedly negative, but it is also very distinctly not a positive read either. "Not positive" would be the primary takeaway here in my opinion.

Spoiler: show

why carotte?

Primarily process of elimination with a pinch of I don't think she looks very comfortable.

why have i dropped down for you?

It's less that you've "dropped" than those four have become more solidified civilian reads. Gun to my head you're town too. If I have one gripe for you it's that I don't know that you've been fair in your assessment of my treatment of Sloonei. I said myself that I wanted to let him speak for himself. You asked me a specific question though, and I did you the courtesy of answering it -- so to say that I have given him an out somehow on that basis is a bit goofy.

Also, how can I find Carotte's posts? I wanted to ISO her but I 'm having a hard time finding her posts in the thread. Is there an easier way to find a post of hers so I can ISO?

Oops I didn't realize Carotte was Carotenoid, I thought Carotte was a completely different player. I think Carotte looks okay so far, I like that she reevaluated on me. I have more of a "wait and see" read on both her and Sloonei, I think they'll become more readable later on.

But then he reveals that the player he was identifying as Carotte doesn't actually exist: he didn't realize that "Carotte" was shortform for "Carotenoid", and that she looks "okay so far". So... what did the nonexistent player called "Carotte" do to earn that "not a townread" mention earlier? Who was that referring to if not Carotenoid, and why?

I came in looking for Sloonei on Nook, but this post is another reason why I'm town. This isn't teammate interaction.

@Sloonei tell me about Nanook.

I have not taken note of anything he’s done this game. That should probably be a concern. I’ll try to find time to fix that later.

This feels like Sloonei wanting to prod an inactive teammate. He did similar with LC.

My predominant concern about Alison's Day 1 is that it feels kind of flat. She made her reads and stated them clearly, but felt a bit static and a bit uninspired, for lack of a better word. Take this post, which I previously noted as something I felt good about, or at least did not disagree with:

Okay. Sloonei just used a "post icon" on this post.

Can I town-read him for it?

That was an accidental misclick. I’d never do something like that for game-related purposes.
Why would you town read me for that?

@Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

GTH mafia
[/quote]
Sloonei called LC GTH mafia and also said in other posts that LC was in his PoE and his next suspect after Alison. I'm just noting that as a baseline for how Sloonei interacts with teammates.

If it's not Alison, Martin becomes the most obvious suspect.

Beyond that, nanook and tutuu are the names that feel the least stable.

After them, we are getting into the towncore at its coriest. I don't have time to do a bunch more ISOs. I can skim some stuff though.

Similarly to how Sloonei interacted with LC, he put Nook in his PoE but was reluctant to push him since he wanted Alison eliminated first.

nanook and LC at a glance:

Spoiler: show

Maybe I misunderstand. I thought you were saying that, if the group sends a town and a mafia, then the mafia would choose to send another mafia so that they could subvert the democratic process and yeet a town member that was supposed to be safe.

That is not what I was saying and is a gross misunderstanding of how the game mechanics work

Having me all yellow is super lazy dude

Yeah... at the very least, three posts could be said to have wolf equity with Sloonei:

hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here

Both lock town now

Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

who's mafia?

You know I hate this question literally every time someone replies to a post of mine asking a question with “who’s mafia” instead of just answering my question

So from now on I’m going to reply to it with some version of “you motherfucka” k thx

Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

That is a lot of names, nooky.

Town cores are hard sometimes

Not strong I know. Other than these, I do see what JJJ means with all the yellow. Your interactions are lean, there's not much there to connect with other players.

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

This was thoroughly underwhelming. Nanook was the first person to respond to LC's "derpclear" post by the looks of it (and I think LC's post was a response to nanook in the first place?). The exchange about Nanook's viability with various hypothetical partners is a bit odd and... kind of out of place. I could see it as theater between teammates.
Nanook voted for LC yesterday, but i don't know where it fell in the scheme of the wagons.

I can see this as LC's teammate.

I think the "Nook's interactions with LC look bad" argument is one that's easier to make from a scum PoV with a teammate than from a scum PoV with a townie (and a townie that's not in the immediate PoE at that). Also, these points are really weak and nitpicky. It reminds me a lot of how Sloonei made the post about LC saying he suspected him because everyone else did. Sloonei might be trying to push Nook without actually pushing him.

[VOTE: nanook] aubergine

Oh My God U Suck

Does Alison/Nanook make sense?

Without looking into it deeply, nanook’s vote on LC (which he insists should clear him) means absolutely nothing in an Alison/LC world. Their third partner needs to vote for one of them on Day 2. Casting the “deciding” vote is a good play.

He's doing the same thing he did with LC: putting Nook as a suspect but not as his top suspect. The vote on Nook also means nothing from the perspective of deciding the elim.

[Thunal33]

I really, really don't want to be mislimed. I suppose being mislimed now is better than in f3 but I'm absolutely not playing from a "my slot needs to be resolved" perspective because I hate that mindset. Martin was right: If we just stick to the PoE and not be victim to paranoia then town can win this. We have 2 shots to get it right and two suspects of Tutuu/Nook.

[Thunal33]

I don't think Hally did anything wrong, certainly not "causing chaos". I was surprised to look at the poll and suddenly see so many votes, but that's about it. It makes sense. I didn't like tutuu and Alison causing an uproar about it.

I support the SPF initiative. Should I put a vote on everyone but her? Or just Nanook?

Where does this come from? LC barely interacted with Nook at all yet his first mention of him is "Should I put a vote on him?" This is likely teammate interaction. Both LC and Sloonei have had inconsequential, light suspicion of Nook that comes from weak places and looks a lot like distancing.

[Thunal33]

Well, I did the thing that nobody really wants to do but I have to do - towncase myself.

how did thunal interact with long con?

i like thunal bringing up suspicion/paranoia toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675408#p675408 - this was at a point when the suspicion on long con was low, and i don't see why thunal would feel incentivized to throw shade on her partner like that

i get a similar feeling from viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675604#p675604 - thunal put LC low in her POE even at a point when long con was not a popular chop option by any means. if thunal is mafia with LC then it means that she bussed early and she bussed aggressively

once again, thunal goes out of her way to bring attention to long con slipping under the radar on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676986#p676986 and viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676994#p676994. this was at a point when jagged/alison were arguing and when there were a lot of other viable pushes besides long con. thunal is constantly going: "hey, look at long con! he's scummy!" when she would have zero reason to do that as his partner

how did long con interact with thunal?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677026#p677026 is notable because it's one of the only times during the game where long con directly answers a question & tries to justify his own actions - gth this reflects nicely on thunal, because it feels like long con is trying to appease her/evade thunal pushing on her suspicions further

lc didn't have any other notable interactions with thunal beyond lightly townreading her on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677061#p677061

the only interaction that i find slightly suspicious is long con throwing out thunal's name in a weirdly uncomfortable/unnatural way on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677035#p677035 - i can't figure out why lc chose to throw shade on thunal in that moment, especially since the rest of his attitude toward her was just buddying

conclusion: i was honestly a little suspicious of thunal before i did this analysis, but i'm feeling a lot better about her alignment now. the interactions between thunal/long con consistently point to thunal being town, and i find it unlikely that she went out of her way to hardbus her partner on d1

Just bumping this and bringing it to people's attention - not much explanation needed here.

Sloonei/LC stuff:

@Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

@Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

So this is literally just “Sloonei is mafia because everyone else says so”?

LC's read on Sloonei feels distinctly fake and for quite bad reasons. He either doesn't have actual reasons to push Sloonei since he's town or he's pulling a Sheppard and making an intentionally bad justification for why Sloonei is scum so he doesn't have to push Sloonei to the degree where others could be convinced. Sloonei's response seems lackluster. He doesn't give an additional take on LC's alignment from it which is something I think a townie would do in that scenario. I also feel like Sloonei might be more vocal about why the reasoning is bad if they were W/T.

I also don't like his insistence that I am scum. I don't think he is considering the alternative in the slightest.

I always am. I’ve named you as a suspect several times, but that doesn’t mean my mind is made up on anything at all. I have not seen you do anything that screams town at me.

Who should we send to the grasslands today?

At first glance this seemed like a pretty neutral post, but Sloonei's "who should we send to the grasslands today?" question is ever so slightly scum indicative imo since he could be trying to get an inactive teammate to engage and get themselves out of the PoE. Again projecting onto myself, I know I've done that tactic quite a bit as scum with teammates.

[VOTE: alsion] aubergine
[VOTE: long con] aubergine
[VOTE: martin] aubergine

I don't have a strong preference among these three. I am surprised at my own Martin vote. His response to me in the big wall post of his just now struck me oddly, so it's a bit of a kneejerk/GTH vote. Maybe that's unfair to him. Idk.

If this was a typical game with only one vote, I think I would be going for Alison, but I have been absent for most of the latter part of this phase and will be absent for the remainder of it. I trust you all to pick the right one out of these three.

Thunal is town.

Sorry to be such a dud this phase. I don't like it.

I get the feeling Sloonei would vote like this (meaning, voting for anyone he suspects) regardless of alignment. The analysis I did (which is very limited since I just searched "Long Con" in Sloonei's ISO to find these posts) points slightly to Sloonei being scum. His push on LC seemed pretty weak and LC's push on Sloonei seemed pretty weak.

This is my push on Sloonei from Sloonei/LC interactions. My pushes aren't this well-reasoned and detailed as scum. For anyone who saw me in anni, my Xalt push amounted to "he's outed scum! Why? I don't know." and while I can justify thoughts more than that as scum, I don't have the same depth to my analyses as I do as town.

I've been thinking we should give Nutella the gun today instead of SPF. I think SPF is probably town with the way she thought out all those interaction analyses in a way that makes sense and that both me and Nutella agree with, but Nutella is the clearest person in the game and the most obvious NK. A doc save on her would be really useful.

This is a completely suboptimal play as scum since Nut is clearer than SPF. The only reason I would ever do this as scum would be if I had a special motivation to kill SPF, and obviously that's not the case since SPF is alive.

I was thinking that because Sloonei was the next person in the PoE. As the next person in the PoE scum!Sloonei and his scummates wouldn't be happy with the consensus. However, if Sloonei was town and scum knew they were heading towards a mislim on Carotte that set the groundwork for another mislim on Sloonei they would be quite happy with the consensus.

okay. this actually does make sense and is a good answer. i’m struggling with the same thing. his posts aren’t bad but they’re also not good, and i’m similarly left wondering if that’s AI or just due to him being worn out

your point that people are often suspicious of him for bad reasons is valid but doesn’t really resonate with me personally because when we were town together in SF3 i was never suspicious of him. i think he did get suspicion thrown at him early on that game but i could never make myself see him as anything but a villager and he remained my strongest tr along with spf right up to the end. i felt similarly about him in the finals, though i obviously had the benefit of tmi that game. but even still, none if the accusations levied at him throughout the game ever made any sense to me. he seemed unimpeachably towny to me and i think it’s because he has a process that i do resonate with. in sf3 he remarked that he felt he saw the game through the same lens as me and i felt that too. this game it hasn’t clicked like that yet for me. i still feel something is missing

anyway, thank you for the response. it’s helpful

This part actually does look a little towny from Hally, but this post as a whole made me more suspicious of them overall for reasons I'll get into at the end of this post. Hally's listening to JJJ but I think that might be because they think JJJ would pick up on if Hally wasn't listening since they were in finals together.

i don’t follow this at all. it sounds like you’re more just saying you want to eliminate her for information/because it will help you going forward to know her alignment. but why is she mafia? also your point that she’s gone after a lot of people isn’t really true. she’s really only ever hard pushed thun and sloonei. she clearly is not trying to scum read as many people as possible. and what do you mean, “all she’s doing is making points”? what is bad about that?

this whole post is very confusing. i have no idea what you’re trying to say

Sure, there's a line of questioning here but it's sprinked with "your points don't make sense and are confusing." The questions are more to poke holes in the argument than actual open minded or solving questions. This is suspicious from Hally, more on that later.

That makes some sense - I was struggling to reason what the benefit would be to scum!Alison to keep pushing me this much. She didn't push me anywhere near this much when I was wolf and she was SK. But wanting to keep me and Sloonei out of the towncore would be beneficial if she was scum (especially if Sloonei is town).

how does that make sense? alison has suspects. her suspects are you and sloonei. why is her having two suspects scummy? like, obviously regardless of her alignment she doesn’t want her suspects to be in the town core. that’s the literal definition of a suspect. how is it any different from you or anyone else who has suspects? couldn’t you say that sloonei is trying to keep alison out of the town core by suspecting her? or you are? or jay is? because that makes as much sense to me as what you say here (read: zero)

like, i think you’re confbiasing to fit what you want your reads to be. this argument that martin is making about why alison is scum is not good. your argument about why sloonei is town is not good. they just aren’t valid arguments. that doesn’t mean the reads are wrong necessarily but please try to consider if the arguments themselves actually make any sense

I feel like eliminating in the non universally TRed people is more strategic for today since it gives more info - and I don't think I could successfully case and push for an elim on any of the players I mentioned since my reasons to suspect them are admittedly thin. It's more "could be scum" and for Hally, it's "not out of their scum range." Hally is the most likely out of the three names I have since they have some small things in their play I found suspicious - their complete 180 on Carotte when they got to the grasslands, even though well explained, I could easily see scum motivation for. They're not posting the same way I'm used to seeing from them, meaning that they're not posting as much and they're not as pushy as I've seen them as either alignment. They're blending in which I find unusual for them but it could be because they have less time to play because of their job. Also they didn't pay attention to my deepwolf suspicion on them which I feel scum!Hally is more likely to do than town!Hally. Hally I have some reasons for. Tutuu and Nutella are more "I don't TR them as strongly as the other townread people."

what is the scum motivation for 180ing on carotte? like, actually. what did that get me if im mafia?

also i don’t really feel im blending in. im posting what i can with the time i have. i thought i was quite pushy with carotte and she ended up being town. now it’s harder to find concrete scum reads. also your point about my number of posts is kinda silly. most of my posts are multiquote catch ups so that i can be sure i save posts for real timing. if you were to break up my multiquotes into individual posts, my post count would be higher. would that make me more likely town? like, why does this matter to you?

also the reason why i haven’t addressed your tinfoil on me is because there’s nothing to address. atm it’s just “hally isn’t out of their scum range.” that’s not a substantive suspicion that i can respond to. i did respond in detail to your point about my 180 on carotte though, so it’s wrong to say i’ve ignored your suspicion on me. everything else has just been paranoia that’s not grounded in anything other than your fear of my scum game. it’s the same thing every game and i’m more than used to it by now, so it’s not something i actually care about, sorry

I've read this post and at this point I can only see scum!Hally making it. My tinfoil deepwolf suspicion has turned into very real suspicion. The blue is a clear attempt to discredit me. I've townread Hally in nearly all the games I've played with them. This isn't even close to being true.

And now we come to the main reason I really suspect Hally right now: They're not listening! Finals Hally literally admitted to shutting down Dya's arguments when they would definitely have listened to Dya as town. I've played a lot of games with Hally. We have quite a bit of history and they usually value my opinion a great deal. Even when I was a flipped wolf in Bastard Fiesta town!Hally took my suspects into consideration to try to find the 3p. As town Hally doesn't take one of their top townreads and say "your arguments make no sense" and "I completely disagree" to everything I'm saying. They would care about my input more than this. They're shutting down Martin too. This is a very good reenactment of what Hally did in finals and nothing like what town!Hally's process is. Oh, and this only makes me more confident that Sloonei is town and Alison is scum because my reads aren't convenient to scum!Hally right now.

[VOTE: Hally] aubergine

I don't think I'm ever going to want to change this.

This is simply not how town!Hally acts towards me. Even when they suspected me (correctly) in Bastard Fiesta they still asked me questions that were open minded (not pointed), valued my opinion, and reevaluated their read on me multiple times. They care about my opinion even more when they townread me and certainly wouldn't shut down all my arguments without taking any of them into consideration.

Read my push on Hally. I made them frustrated and I got really frustrated myself because I thought they were shutting me down. I gave some meta links at SoD3 (I think) and you can verify that I wouldn't do anything this evil as scum. I think it's unethical. Additionally, Hally hard townread me nearly the entire game. If I'm scum, what would my push on Hally ever accomplish when I could just shoot them??? And there's absolutely no way I would go to a personal level as scum like that and say "my reads aren't convenient to Hally." In my 2 years of playing mafia I've never been that evil as scum. If not my other points, please believe me on this one.
[/quote]

Bumping this.

[Thunal33]

I mean unless it’s just tutu I have a misclear somewhere

Cause my POE was alison/sloonei/tutu...alison being NKed points towards me potentially having a misclear somewhere

If Alison was in Nook's PoE, then I wonder why town!Nook decided to vote both scum instead of Alison. [mention]NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME[/mention] can you tell me your thought process behind both of your votes on scum?

[Thunal33]

[mention]nutella[/mention] Why have you locked in Nook as town?

[tutuu]

We need to decide if we are going with the alphabetical plan at f3 should it reach there or nutella shoots whoever she wants

[mention]nutella[/mention] u pick baby, and could u ping all dead town players with ur decision too? Just so we are all in unison

[Thunal33]

Also to people saying I would make the Alison kill as scum, I wouldn't. Here's the gist of an argument about who to NK in one of my scum games:

Me: We should kill player X. Last game they were killed N1 for having good reads yet their reads are off this game. I'll push the narrative that they were killed for their reads tomorrow and I think that kill would put us in a really good position.

Teammate: No, we should kill player Y because they're a strong player who scumreads me.

I don't like killing players for their reads.

[tutuu]

[VOTE: Thunal33] aubergine

[Thunal33]

[VOTE: Thunal33] aubergine

Did you read my points on Nook?

[Thunal33]

Nook being scum also explains why the Sloonei and LC elims went through. I looked through Sloonei and LC's ISO and there's strong evidence of setting Nook up to go deep which I quoted earlier. Please consider my case.

[Thunal33]

There's something that's been bugging me even though it's pretty tinfoily: If Nutella is town, why did LC launch himself into a thunderdome on Nutella he was sure to lose? Wouldn't it have been a far better approach for scum!LC to defuse town!Nut's tunnel rather than add fuel to the fire?

[Thunal33]

Blind Interactions



For those who don't already know, green blocks reflect pairings that I don't think look likely to be mafia teammates. Yellow blocks refer to pairings that I think could be; I have no good reason to say otherwise. Orange refers to a pairing that I found particularly compatible.

I only ended up with one orange, so if you want to be conservative you can just call it yellow and end up with a binary yes/no chart.

As usual I don't have dedicated notes for all of this. I did poke at a tiny bit as I went through it in my previous handful of posts. I don't want to spam the game with mass analysis. If you have questions about any pairing here, ask me. I will try to answer if I have time. I might not. If I can't answer, then dig into the interaction for yourself and see how you feel.

A few notes:

~ Nanook being an ocean of yellow is unsurprising. He has the fewest posts and hasn't done a whole lot in the way of pushing any kind of game solving. So he's compatible with everyone.

~ Long Con and Martin are the only orange in a way that kind of recalls Jack/Michelle in the Finale (Martin in particular made a few mentions of LC that struck me as a bit forced or unnecessary. I realize Jack/Michelle was wrong, but whatever -- it's orange anyway. View it for yourselves and come to your own conclusions.

~ I struggle to clearly remove a POE name or suspect from the pool with this chart as I often want to. The closest I can come is Thunal, who would be compatible per my judgments only with Nanook, SPF, and nutella (which would be a good look overall for Thunal if at least two of those three are town).

~ Most importantly about Thunal, I think he doesn't fit with Sloonei. This should have important implications for Alison's view of the game, and I look forward to hearing what she thinks about that.

~ Sloonei fits precisely with the POE and naught else. So the case against Sloonei can be described as "easy game versus not easy game". Your mileage may vary given what you think of that. Alison is in a very similar position, which makes the emerging "dichotomy" between those two especially important. They don't have to be a dichotomy, but I am kind of feeling that way.

~ For some reason I couldn't find it within myself to clear nutella on numerous interactions even when she had a lot to say about people. I don't know what to make of that. I might not make anything of it. She covers a lot of ground in her solving style a la the rabbits of the world. The same can be said to a lesser degree for Hally.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Most important takeaways for me: Thunal might be the best look if anyone is, and her relationship with Sloonei and Alison might be good starting points from which a coherent view of the game can be constructed.

I might actually sheep this to some degree - according to JJJ, Sloonei only fits with Nook out of the living players and I'm inclined to trust JJJ's reads since he was killed over Nutella.

[Thunal33]

Before I vote I want to hear Nutella's POV on why Nook is town. I'm just not seeing it but I do wonder how a potential scum!Nook fools almost everyone with such few posts.

[Thunal33]

[mention]tutuu[/mention] [mention]nutella[/mention] [mention]staypositivefriend[/mention]

I'm mentioning everyone so they'll see this before they vote. If you haven't voted, please read my posts and consider my case on Nook. As scum I would be trying to leave my scummy past behind and focus on looking towny now. Here I encourage everyone to read my past posts since I'm confident my towniness has shown through all game (especially with my push on Hally). I'm just telling people to remember why they townread me previously.

For people who have voted, please consider putting an additional vote on Nook. People have said "Nook is town" with absolutely no reason why and both LC and Sloonei's interactions with Nook look really bad for him.

[Thunal33]

[VOTE: NANOOK] aubergine

[tutuu]

i hope nutella comes lol we need to clarify if we're following the alphabetical plan or not because if there is a miscommunication we might gamethrow since f3 goes to quick topic

if she doesnt come i guess i'll need to ping the dead towns for her and i hate making decisions

[tutuu]

wait actually is there a day phase in f3 before grasslands? idk why i assumed there isnt. hmm

[Thunal33]

wait actually is there a day phase in f3 before grasslands? idk why i assumed there isnt. hmm

I don't think there is.

[tutuu]

do u think there are any faults in the alphabetical plan? seems good right?

[tutuu]

dammit [mention]nutella[/mention] pls absolve me of my responsibility im a coward and i run away and im too weak to take responsibility u need to take it and decide if we're doing the plan