Mafia (GAME OVER)

[KZA]

I'm not sure why we aren't voting Scirrus who claimed to have vig'd Marmot then proceeds to speculate if the Mafia killed Marmot

[KZA]

and like yeah Grogu can be Mafia too but that Scirrus thing looks very egregious to me

[Epignosis]

And if I'm right, the role block business (sans Grogu) might just be a series of red herrings. The mafia team very well may have been an absentee mafia.

KZA's eagerness to jump on Scirrus for a "slip" without commenting on what I just posted about Grogu may indicate that.

I'm not sure I understand the Grogu thing you posted

Grogu said Day 2 he forgot to submit a Night action.

Forgetting implies an intention to use said Night action. If Grogu didn't plan on using his Night action in the first place (as he indicated three separate times!), then he didn't forget it Night 1.

Grogu had a total of ten posts between Day 0 and Night 2. Ten. And most of them did nothing to move things along.

In recent posts, Grogu is giving the impression that he never intended to use the bodyguarding role, that no one was worth sacrificing himself for, and that he wasn't required to use the role (as JJJ claims).

I am most inclined to believe that Grogu did in fact forget to submit a Night action- a kill- but also forgot that he said he forgot when he became more emboldened recently.

++++

If Grogu is mafia, then that gives me pause about Scirrus being mafia.

That's because it opens up the reywaS (you) / Grogu pairing that did nothing the first Night and mayhaps did nothing the second Night as well.

Grogu was also blocked per fingersplints.

Then:

kza didnt use any abilities last night

Grogu could have submitted the kill and was blocked and you did nothing.

For me to believe Scirrus is mafia instead of Grogu requires additional assumptions I don't think I'm willing to make right now given Grogu's dishonesty.

This is why I have elected to [VOTE: Grogu] aubergine.

[Epignosis]

and like yeah Grogu can be Mafia too but that Scirrus thing looks very egregious to me

Funny thing is I already have an answer for that "egregious" thing.

I wanted to hear it directly from him, but I'm willing to accept that I'm right about it anyway.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’d personally rather take out Scirrus as well. He seems to just be letting the day go without touching it.

I just don’t have much time tonight to motivate any movement. Those with more posts and time than I have should talk about it.

[Epignosis]

I’d personally rather take out Scirrus as well. He seems to just be letting the day go without touching it.

I just don’t have much time tonight to motivate any movement. Those with more posts and time than I have should talk about it.

I'm coming around to Scirrus being innocent.

[KZA]

That all seems like semantics to me re: Grogu

but if you have a good theory for Scirrus being innocent I'll wait and see

[Epignosis]

With @Scirrus, we have to assume he's lying for him to be guilty.

With Grogu, we know he lied, we know he was more or less MIA early on compared to now, we know he was blocked when he was around more (if you don't doubt FS), we know that even if he is telling the truth he refused to help more active, more useful civilians, we know that he lashed out against damn near everybody this Day 4 when approached with suspicion, and I think this is the correct lynch for today.

If anyone thinks I'm missing something, let me know.

[Grogu]

I’m not home tonight and can’t do much.

I’m betting on a mafia team containing either two or three of these:

Scirrus, Grogu, Enrique

If that’s correct, chop them all and we win. Shouldn’t matter how many. May need to ensure Enrique isn’t last to go because of the double vote.

Vote Grogu for now. I caught him in a lie.

Which lie would that be?

[Enrique]

Regardless of Grogu’s flip, if the game continues Enrique needs to be next — before Scirrus.

Or I'll use my double vote to override 6 or however many players?

This is WIFOM as fuck but if I was a wolf, even if I had the same role I do, I probably wouldn't have actually claimed it. I knew when I claimed that it wasn't gonna convince people that I was a civ, and if I was mafia of course I could've just made up whatever bullshit instead of setting myself up as a potential threat to the lynch.

I was afk yesterday but I read the recent posts. According to KZA Scirrus speculated about mafia killing Marmot... lmao, I'll have to look at the post, but if that's real then yeah that's obviously a go. Epi got a similar but slightly less incriminating slip out of Grogu. I think those two should be next, and if there's a third wheel right now I think Poison is the likeliest.

[Grogu]

And if I'm right, the role block business (sans Grogu) might just be a series of red herrings. The mafia team very well may have been an absentee mafia.

KZA's eagerness to jump on Scirrus for a "slip" without commenting on what I just posted about Grogu may indicate that.

I'm not sure I understand the Grogu thing you posted

Grogu said Day 2 he forgot to submit a Night action.

Forgetting implies an intention to use said Night action. If Grogu didn't plan on using his Night action in the first place (as he indicated three separate times!), then he didn't forget it Night 1.

Grogu had a total of ten posts between Day 0 and Night 2. Ten. And most of them did nothing to move things along.

In recent posts, Grogu is giving the impression that he never intended to use the bodyguarding role, that no one was worth sacrificing himself for, and that he wasn't required to use the role (as JJJ claims).

I am most inclined to believe that Grogu did in fact forget to submit a Night action- a kill- but also forgot that he said he forgot when he became more emboldened recently.

++++

If Grogu is mafia, then that gives me pause about Scirrus being mafia.

That's because it opens up the reywaS (you) / Grogu pairing that did nothing the first Night and mayhaps did nothing the second Night as well.

Grogu was also blocked per fingersplints.

Then:

kza didnt use any abilities last night

Grogu could have submitted the kill and was blocked and you did nothing.

For me to believe Scirrus is mafia instead of Grogu requires additional assumptions I don't think I'm willing to make right now given Grogu's dishonesty.

This is why I have elected to [VOTE: Grogu] aubergine.

By forgetting all I meant to say is that I didn’t have time to look to see who was cleared. The following days I looked and was going to save Alison which was cop but then she claimed some insane shit and I didn’t think any one deserve it and as you can see each night it didn’t matter.
It wasn’t a lie when I clearly stated all that

[Enrique]

mafia was messed with

i claim vig and shot marmot

yeah, i suck, i know

This is a claim of murdering Marmot Night 1 followed by mea culpa.

Okay.

This below is from Day 3:

JJJ do you have any phresh thoughts

Alison can only be on a mafia team with Epi i think, if they decided to fake the cop/protect shtick. But if that were the case, why would still not kill anyone, or kill Marmot? Marmot's a bad N1 Kill for scum based on how they game was going.

So probably not that

Alternatively Alison decides to do some no kill gambit for this game regardless of her partners. But why? I'm not sure if the benefits outway the cost of that, especially for the first night

The enlarged is something I am not understanding.

"Marmot's a bad N1 Kill for scum based on how they game was going."

Why does this sentence exist?

oh well this is a straight up slip isn't it?

Yeah I cannot jive with JJJ's suggestion to yeet me, especially after seeing this. What the hell are you thinking man?

[Grogu]

I’m the Bg and I’m ok dying here. I think is only a bit more stupid than the time ya Elim Alison. Enrique or scirrus have to go here.
I don’t trust finger either. I think he’s wolf with Enrique or scirrus.

[Epignosis]

And if I'm right, the role block business (sans Grogu) might just be a series of red herrings. The mafia team very well may have been an absentee mafia.

KZA's eagerness to jump on Scirrus for a "slip" without commenting on what I just posted about Grogu may indicate that.

I'm not sure I understand the Grogu thing you posted

Grogu said Day 2 he forgot to submit a Night action.

Forgetting implies an intention to use said Night action. If Grogu didn't plan on using his Night action in the first place (as he indicated three separate times!), then he didn't forget it Night 1.

Grogu had a total of ten posts between Day 0 and Night 2. Ten. And most of them did nothing to move things along.

In recent posts, Grogu is giving the impression that he never intended to use the bodyguarding role, that no one was worth sacrificing himself for, and that he wasn't required to use the role (as JJJ claims).

I am most inclined to believe that Grogu did in fact forget to submit a Night action- a kill- but also forgot that he said he forgot when he became more emboldened recently.

++++

If Grogu is mafia, then that gives me pause about Scirrus being mafia.

That's because it opens up the reywaS (you) / Grogu pairing that did nothing the first Night and mayhaps did nothing the second Night as well.

Grogu was also blocked per fingersplints.

Then:

kza didnt use any abilities last night

Grogu could have submitted the kill and was blocked and you did nothing.

For me to believe Scirrus is mafia instead of Grogu requires additional assumptions I don't think I'm willing to make right now given Grogu's dishonesty.

This is why I have elected to [VOTE: Grogu] aubergine.

By forgetting all I meant to say is that I didn’t have time to look to see who was cleared. The following days I looked and was going to save Alison which was cop but then she claimed some insane shit and I didn’t think any one deserve it and as you can see each night it didn’t matter.
It wasn’t a lie when I clearly stated all that

What happened? I never saw the day end and forgot to submit my action.

This was your exact post Day 2.

"I ... forgot to submit my action."

That means you meant to bodyguard someone but you forgot, correct?

[Scirrus]

S'up guys

I've had a busy day but i've got some time now

[Scirrus]

I find myself wondering now if Grogu's role is opposite to my own because it's oppositely aligned. Whether it's "useful" may not be meaningful. Alison's role was useless. But also:

My role is nearly useless. For a civilian to effectively use a hider role requires incredible good luck, and almost any other application just causes extra needless confusion that is harmful to the team. The only truly good impact it can have is to draw a night kill and direct it to someone else. I was robbed of that capacity well before Night 1 was over, so for me the role is worthless. I'm also obligated to use it. I don't know if that applies to anyone else.

Grogu's role would be nearly useless for a mafia team. He can technically sacrifice himself to a town vigilante in order to save a better-positioned teammate. Such an eventuality is possible, but through the lens of a randomized role list it ought to seem pretty rare. That kind of parallels my role in the opposite direction.

This is super speculative, but we have no choice. We must speculate.

For what it's worth, my vig kill was not compulsory, and if I did not use it by N3, I would have lost it anyway

is your role the only one that's mandatory?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Enrique if you’re a mafia double voter it is impossible to overtake your two votes in a final 3.

[Scirrus]

Wait so your hider directs all actions on you to your target instead of just kills? @JaggedJimmyJay

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If any prevailing wisdom is wrong, it’s because Epignosis is mafia. I simply don’t have time to contend with that, so just gonna hope not.

[Scirrus]

You played with me before. What are the chances you think I would carry the kill when I know that the player blocked the night before cannot be blocked again?

The only player blocked last night who cannot be blocked again was scirrus. Potential slip up here?

Not at all. That means that if you blocked the kill last night then scirrus just makes NK again. Which just tell us I’m not scum. Wolves are just not submitting if you truly blocked me. Or how else you explain no kill if I’m town?

So this means I HAVE to be scum to you, right? Why aren't you voting me?

[Epignosis]

If any prevailing wisdom is wrong, it’s because Epignosis is mafia. I simply don’t have time to contend with that, so just gonna hope not.

I'm the only one providing any wisdom today.

[Scirrus]

I was going to Bg Alison before she claimed insane.

Alison claimed insane D2. You didn't submit an action N1, didn't you?

[Scirrus]

I'm tired of [VOTE: Scirrus] aubergine continually staying silent until someone accuses him of something.

[10]

Is this what you think? Tell me more.

[Scirrus]

I dont think its epi or fingersplints. This might be a dumb reason but I believe Epi when he says he wouldnt be abstaining from kills.

Fingerprints still just seems towny. I dont see her faking the blocks.

Is JJJ abstaining from kills?

I'd say it's possible, he did, after all, just make that big post above where he explained how it wouldn't be weird for mafia to abstain from kills.

Do you have an opinion on this?

Well I cleared Enrique but now I have to consider Epi and JJJ

Did you expect him to be lying about his role if he is mafia here? I don't see why he would considering the tie was between townies. He has no need to lie if he's scum.

I could only see him lying about his role is if I am scum with him. Telling the truth makes Enrique look terrible with the Alison flip and I don't know why he would do that lol.

And this isnt the case because I'm town anyway so

So what option exactly *wouldn't* have looked terrible?

In the event that we're both mafia? Lmao you know thats not the case

claiming something that would have made you looked better. Mafia have the benefit of lying to give themselves an advantage in a closed setup like this.

I am trusting town's claims to be legit. I assume mafia is too. My early claim of 1x vig clearly didnt help me bc i got blocked later and all I could really say is

"srry im vanilla now"

It doesnt do much to inspire confidence

Which claims are you trusting to be legit?

I trust that the members of the town are all not lying about the roles, by virtue of them being town. I believe fingersplints and yourself to be town so therefore, legit. Enrique's role is legit bc it was proven by the vote count. Doesn't reveal anything about his alignment. JJJ's hider claim i'm inclined to believe. Poisons claim, dunno. She could easily be a tracker regardless of alignment. It's also not a hard role to fake. Grogu, meh. KZA's role is a little harder to believe bc i've never seen anything like it but for this game? I wouldn't be suprised if it is true.

You tracked JJJ Night 1. That should mean you saw JJJ target reywaS. What do you mean you got no result from reywaS?

Doesn't that indicate to you that JJJ lied?

Or am I misinterpreting something?

Yeah I was confused about this as well

[Scirrus]

Is there any reason we shouldn't be chopping Poison

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Poison was affirming my claim. I hid behind reywaS on Night 1, so Poison’s alleged track on me would have hit him instead.

[Epignosis]

I dont think its epi or fingersplints. This might be a dumb reason but I believe Epi when he says he wouldnt be abstaining from kills.

Fingerprints still just seems towny. I dont see her faking the blocks.

Is JJJ abstaining from kills?

I'd say it's possible, he did, after all, just make that big post above where he explained how it wouldn't be weird for mafia to abstain from kills.

Do you have an opinion on this?

If JJJ is abstaining from kills, I would be shocked. I don't think he would regard it as sporting to withhold kills.

I don't suspect JJJ at all.

[Scirrus]

mafia was messed with

i claim vig and shot marmot

yeah, i suck, i know

This is a claim of murdering Marmot Night 1 followed by mea culpa.

Okay.

This below is from Day 3:

JJJ do you have any phresh thoughts

Alison can only be on a mafia team with Epi i think, if they decided to fake the cop/protect shtick. But if that were the case, why would still not kill anyone, or kill Marmot? Marmot's a bad N1 Kill for scum based on how they game was going.

So probably not that

Alternatively Alison decides to do some no kill gambit for this game regardless of her partners. But why? I'm not sure if the benefits outway the cost of that, especially for the first night

The enlarged is something I am not understanding.

"Marmot's a bad N1 Kill for scum based on how they game was going."

Why does this sentence exist?

I didn't think that mafia would want Marmot out of the game on N1? Alison and JJJ, both good players with a lot of sway, had marmot as their main suspect D1/N1. JJJ made that whole interaction chart mappping out interactions for everyone in the game and Marmot was **THE MAIN LINK** Day 2 would have undoubtably been a game of trying to yeet Marmot and find out who Marmot's partners are. That's why I vigged Marmot.

Scum want to keep viable misyeets around. Marmot was one.

I didn't anticipate how inactive the game would get post-N1. I considered shooting Grogu or Reywas instead but I figured they would have been replaced later.

[Scirrus]

If Marmot was mafia we could have spent the day solving based on that rather than an inactive slot, all of which were tossups to me

If he flipped town, then we didn't have to waste a day tying him to teammates for M/M interactions that aren't actually a thing

[Scirrus]

Good pickup, Epi. Not sure why Scirrus seems to be entertaining scenarios where Marmot was a mafia night kill (and how much sense it would or wouldn’t make). If he shot Marmot as a vigilante there’s little or no reason for that to exist in his mind.

I’m getting the impression that Scirrus is a mafioso and not a vigilante — that Marmot was a standard kill.

I'm not following this. I was considering possible scenarios, you know, as many of has have? And one of those scenarios is that Marmot was double tapped. I consider that not to be likely, for the reasons I gave

What's the problem here?

[Scirrus]

[VOTE: JaggedJimmyJay] aubergine

[Scirrus]

I'm here to spit a hot take: there is no factional kill

The thought briefly entered my mind when i saw the no kill, but how would that be balanced in a game like this? There can't be 4 mafia because the game would be over. 3 vs 9 in a game with a bunch of Town PR's and mafia can't NK? Nah

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It’s true that I hadn’t thought of the notion of a “double tap”. I would agree that’s unlikely.

I don’t care about that vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have briefly thought about the potential that there is no mafia team at all, and that the opposition is some kind of independent.

Impossible to know anyway, and that mindset burned me in Jack Attack.

[Scirrus]

mafia was messed with

i claim vig and shot marmot

yeah, i suck, i know

This is a claim of murdering Marmot Night 1 followed by mea culpa.

Okay.

This below is from Day 3:

JJJ do you have any phresh thoughts

Alison can only be on a mafia team with Epi i think, if they decided to fake the cop/protect shtick. But if that were the case, why would still not kill anyone, or kill Marmot? Marmot's a bad N1 Kill for scum based on how they game was going.

So probably not that

Alternatively Alison decides to do some no kill gambit for this game regardless of her partners. But why? I'm not sure if the benefits outway the cost of that, especially for the first night

The enlarged is something I am not understanding.

"Marmot's a bad N1 Kill for scum based on how they game was going."

Why does this sentence exist?

oh well this is a straight up slip isn't it?

How is it a slip?

Regardless of Grogu’s flip, if the game continues Enrique needs to be next — before Scirrus.

Why?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Regardless of Grogu’s flip, if the game continues Enrique needs to be next — before Scirrus.

Why?

He's essentially a confirmed double voter, and if he is a mafia double voter then he cannot be allowed to exist in any Final 3 scenario -- it's impossible to out vote him and ties are no eliminations.

[KZA]

Well Scirrus unless I'm missing some context it looks like you're considering worlds where Marmot was a mafia kill which you should know isn't a thing if you actually shot Marmot

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I will of course give whatever attention I can to other strategies while I'm in the game. I just don't want people forgetting about that until it's too late.

[26]

[Scirrus]

JJJ i think you're mafia because you have mostly been sheeping Epi today while trying to nudge suspicion on to me.

All this after you voted Alison to save me yesterday.

Saved me just to throw shade me on for my absence.

And I just feel like you don't really believe the things you're saying.

[Scirrus]

Well Scirrus unless I'm missing some context it looks like you're considering worlds where Marmot was a mafia kill which you should know isn't a thing if you actually shot Marmot

I don't see how me choosing to shoot Marmot has any bearing on whether or not scum also decided to NK Marmot? Scum didn't know my role or what I was gonna do with it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

JJJ i think you're mafia because you have mostly been sheeping Epi today while trying to nudge suspicion on to me.

All this after you voted Alison to save me yesterday.

Saved me just to throw shade me on for my absence.

And I just feel like you don't really believe the things you're saying.

I don't care about any of this. You've been a low-visibility player since Day 1, and you actually tried to suggest I was "becoming meh" as the game progressed. I can't actually name anything you have done to promote a meaningful hunting effort since you claimed vigilante. You've been floating around and periodically saying "I'll be here later" only to carry on with floating.

Alison was a suspect. She flipped town. Thus I must acknowledge and consider the reads she provided. Consistency is for the mafia. I'm here to get it right.

Also, I didn't "vote Alison to save you". I voted Alison to kill Alison.

[Enrique]

I’m glad you can’t lynch me in a final 3 scenario because I’m fucking town.

[KZA]

Well Scirrus unless I'm missing some context it looks like you're considering worlds where Marmot was a mafia kill which you should know isn't a thing if you actually shot Marmot

I don't see how me choosing to shoot Marmot has any bearing on whether or not scum also decided to NK Marmot? Scum didn't know my role or what I was gonna do with it.

Huh? I think we are in different pages here

Explain the context of that post that I said looks like a slip, the one Epi brought up with the upscaled font. You were trying to say Marmot could've been shot twice?

[Scirrus]

Well Scirrus unless I'm missing some context it looks like you're considering worlds where Marmot was a mafia kill which you should know isn't a thing if you actually shot Marmot

I don't see how me choosing to shoot Marmot has any bearing on whether or not scum also decided to NK Marmot? Scum didn't know my role or what I was gonna do with it.

Huh? I think we are in different pages here

Explain the context of that post that I said looks like a slip, the one Epi brought up with the upscaled font. You were trying to say Marmot could've been shot twice?

I considered the possibility of that happeneing and said that it wasn't likely

That's literally all it was

[Epignosis]

Good pickup, Epi. Not sure why Scirrus seems to be entertaining scenarios where Marmot was a mafia night kill (and how much sense it would or wouldn’t make). If he shot Marmot as a vigilante there’s little or no reason for that to exist in his mind.

I’m getting the impression that Scirrus is a mafioso and not a vigilante — that Marmot was a standard kill.

I'm not following this. I was considering possible scenarios, you know, as many of has have? And one of those scenarios is that Marmot was double tapped. I consider that not to be likely, for the reasons I gave

What's the problem here?

This was what I thought.

I read a post by Scirrus over and over making this same point (it had a lot of large lettering). You can find it if you want.

The one explanation to that "slip" I found was that mafia targeted Marmot as well.

I am satisfied Scirrus isn't mafia.

[KZA]

Okay I guess that checks out well enough

I'll just sheep on to Grogu and ride or die with Epi I think

[Epignosis]

Well Scirrus unless I'm missing some context it looks like you're considering worlds where Marmot was a mafia kill which you should know isn't a thing if you actually shot Marmot

I don't see how me choosing to shoot Marmot has any bearing on whether or not scum also decided to NK Marmot? Scum didn't know my role or what I was gonna do with it.

Huh? I think we are in different pages here

Explain the context of that post that I said looks like a slip, the one Epi brought up with the upscaled font. You were trying to say Marmot could've been shot twice?

It makes sense to me. Scirrus was saying mafia could have shot Marmot at the same time he did and that he didn't find that likely. Unclear language made that hard to understand (no offense Scirrus, I hope), but I get it now.

KZA pushing this instead of Grogu means KZA is Grogu's teammate.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A team of Grogu and reywaS/KZA provides explanations for the lack of mafia kills and could just be the answer. It does leave me with at least one glaring unanswered question though:

Is a 10 vs. 2 game in which the civilians have a vigilante and a double voter ever a fair one? G-Man has hosted plenty of games, and I don't recall any such ratio in the past. There would seem to be a need for some third mafioso for balance or alternatively an independent role. Even the latter seems to present balance problems, but it is kinder to speculation.

[KZA]

I'm not pushing it I'm literally trying to understand it lol

There's a reason I asked questions

[KZA]

If Grogu flips mafia we might have enough numbers to prove my role anyway

Would be a large waste of time but I understand why I'm in the PoE