Mafia (GAME OVER)

[fingersplints]

Everyone has been meh in this game.

I’m town. If it’s neither blocked player then it’s probably inactive players. That will now be impossible to interpret with KZA here so pretty much screw it.

Apologies for my “meh”ness. Getting used to mafia again + mislynching LC + people not being around when I am to discuss + my RL loss devastating me.

I’m still not sold on the case on Enrique. I’m looking at grogu, poison, KZA, and scirrus for a combination of possible block/missed actions and just feels. Some I feel seem a bit more town friendly in the thread but everyone can’t be town at this point. Someone is fooling us.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Well I cleared Enrique but now I have to consider Epi and JJJ

are you scum with Enrique

Nah I'm one of those roles that can one shot cancel the elimination

As in cause nobody to be eliminated or cause someone different to be eliminated?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Everyone has been meh in this game.

I’m town. If it’s neither blocked player then it’s probably inactive players. That will now be impossible to interpret with KZA here so pretty much screw it.

Apologies for my “meh”ness. Getting used to mafia again + mislynching LC + people not being around when I am to discuss + my RL loss devastating me.

I’m still not sold on the case on Enrique. I’m looking at grogu, poison, KZA, and scirrus for a combination of possible block/missed actions and just feels. Some I feel seem a bit more town friendly in the thread but everyone can’t be town at this point. Someone is fooling us.

You have nothing to apologize for. This is certainly no memorable performance from civilian Jay, and you have much better reasons.

Could you try to summarize briefly what makes you like Enrique as a civilian read more than the four names you listed?

[KZA]

@KZA you've placed me in some kind of semi-town-whatever space among your reads with my Nanook suspicion as cause for doubt.

Fine.

What are the causes for trust? Why am I a civilian at all?

Mostly effort

I'll be back in a bit to make better posts and hopefully ISO some people sorry I just woke up

[KZA]

Well I cleared Enrique but now I have to consider Epi and JJJ

are you scum with Enrique

Nah I'm one of those roles that can one shot cancel the elimination

As in cause nobody to be eliminated or cause someone different to be eliminated?

No elim

1 shot chop stop

[Scirrus]

Why not.

@Poison what are your thoughts on, well, anything? You vanished.

@Scirrus would you agree that your play fettered off significantly after a strong Day 1, and if so why did that happen? Separately, can you envision any version of this game with a civilian Enrique?

@Enrique can you envision any version of this game with a civilian Scirrus?

@fingersplints why did you choose the block targets that you chose?

@Grogu you complained about me including you in a process of elimination pool yesterday? Why the hell shouldn't I?

Yes I agree.

Normally, D1 is tyoically my strongest day You can see that in Escape from Trump Tower. I was considered for a N1 kill and most people thought I was town. Annnd then D2 happened and I became almost tied for the D2 yeet because people felt less good about my play.

As for this game the 24/24 days + me having a busy week at work + lack of reads and feelings about most of the players caught up to me I guess.

At my home site we normally have 48/24 with closed nights and its easier on the psyche, I feel like tbh

Mechanically i think its more likely for Enrique to be scum than not, but mafia could easily be lying about their roles and gaming the known knowledge about towns abilities to steer town of track. So, its certainly possible for Enrique to be town. At the end i feel like it turns into a game of probability. How likely do we feel like scum are just lyjng about their shit?

[Scirrus]

some things you noticed about Enrique on D1 still stick with me though

like his early read on me and bothering to look up time stamps and my vote progression

idk how much weight you would put on that now. it struck me as towny at the time

[fingersplints]

Why not.

@Poison what are your thoughts on, well, anything? You vanished.

@Scirrus would you agree that your play fettered off significantly after a strong Day 1, and if so why did that happen? Separately, can you envision any version of this game with a civilian Enrique?

@Enrique can you envision any version of this game with a civilian Scirrus?

@fingersplints why did you choose the block targets that you chose?

@Grogu you complained about me including you in a process of elimination pool yesterday? Why the hell shouldn't I?

LC just because his post seemed mostly following and not really putting anything forward. Seemed like it could be mafia motivated. Obviously that was incorrect.

Scirrus I was beginning to be less trusting of the role claim, and was hoping if there was another failed kill it might prove that the Marmot kill was just the regular mafia kill, not vig related. I then realized with Epi’s block/missed action potential that It proves nothing.

[Scirrus]

I'm off to play a long session of DnD with my friendos. Doubt i will be back before the night ends, but we'll see

[JaggedJimmyJay]

some things you noticed about Enrique on D1 still stick with me though

like his early read on me and bothering to look up time stamps and my vote progression

idk how much weight you would put on that now. it struck me as towny at the time

I put non-zero stock in it since I had the same perspective of that specific moment. It can't be much though. I think everyone in the game short of Grogu seems or has seemed like a civilian. I can temper that for KZA just because he hasn't been here long, but even he looked the right way last phase.

Either the mafia team is full potato, or someone that looks civilian is not. No alternatives.

[fingersplints]

Everyone has been meh in this game.

I’m town. If it’s neither blocked player then it’s probably inactive players. That will now be impossible to interpret with KZA here so pretty much screw it.

Apologies for my “meh”ness. Getting used to mafia again + mislynching LC + people not being around when I am to discuss + my RL loss devastating me.

I’m still not sold on the case on Enrique. I’m looking at grogu, poison, KZA, and scirrus for a combination of possible block/missed actions and just feels. Some I feel seem a bit more town friendly in the thread but everyone can’t be town at this point. Someone is fooling us.

You have nothing to apologize for. This is certainly no memorable performance from civilian Jay, and you have much better reasons.

Could you try to summarize briefly what makes you like Enrique as a civilian read more than the four names you listed?

His reactions just feel kind of honest and genuine to me. And unlike some of the others who have been inactive or come and gone throughout the game, his interactions feel consistent.

[Enrique]

If the mafia kills tonight, lynch me and we lose.

Please expand.

Assumed 3v3, clarified in the next post that it could be 3v2 but still a clueless 3.

[Enrique]

Well I cleared Enrique but now I have to consider Epi and JJJ

Did you expect him to be lying about his role if he is mafia here? I don't see why he would considering the tie was between townies. He has no need to lie if he's scum.

I could only see him lying about his role is if I am scum with him. Telling the truth makes Enrique look terrible with the Alison flip and I don't know why he would do that lol.

And this isnt the case because I'm town anyway so

So what option exactly *wouldn't* have looked terrible?

In the event that we're both mafia? Lmao you know thats not the case

claiming something that would have made you looked better. Mafia have the benefit of lying to give themselves an advantage in a closed setup like this.

I am trusting town's claims to be legit. I assume mafia is too. My early claim of 1x vig clearly didnt help me bc i got blocked later and all I could really say is

"srry im vanilla now"

It doesnt do much to inspire confidence

I think I misread your post. I meant in any scenario.

[Enrique]

Why not.

@Enrique can you envision any version of this game with a civilian Scirrus?

I do, easily, otherwise I would have voted for him yesterday. I think I made the wrong call whatever his alignment is, because we would have learned more from his flip (about splints, possibly about Alison, etc) than the nothing we got from Alison.

This is where I’m at - I read splints and Epi as genuine civ players. KZA has acted civ but he should remain in POE because a) reywas b) very little has happened since he joined. I don’t trust Grogu at all and I wish I had pushed harder for him yesterday. Everyone else could easily go either way. Yeah yeah, player salad blablabla.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't know if this will be helpful or even correct, but who cares:

If there are three mafia members, Enrique is probably not one of them. He's a proven double voter in any universe other than someone else on the opposing wagon having a deflated vote or something (I'm going to treat the double vote as confirmed). This role is perfectly sensible on a mafia team of 2, but not on a mafia team of 3 in a game with only 12 players.

If there are three mafia members and Scirrus really is a vigilante, he's probably not one of them. Same situation -- it'd fit fine in a game with 2 mafia members, particularly with town's protections in place, but it'd be sorely overpowered in a game with 3 mafia. This has no bearing on any theory in which Scirrus is not a vigilante at all (in which case he's just mafia).

If there are three mafia members, then the inactivity excuse for the lack of kills should not be applicable. Only the Grogu and reywaS/KZA slots offer a viable explanation on that front, and any possible third mafioso is available to kill someone. Deliberately abstained kills are still possible.

If there are two mafia members, Enrique and/or Scirrus can fit on that team even with true role claims.

If there are two mafia members, Grogu and reywaS/KZA can be the team and validly explain a lack of kills.

------------------------------------------

Both Grogu and reywaS/KZA may fit cleanly onto any theorized team, but this is a matter of default given low content. If the inactivity-no-kill theory is ever dissolved, there's no substantial reason to say that either one must be a mafioso. If that's where process of elimination leads, fine, but that solving would need to be done with deliberateness. They're very easy to default to as suspects.

------------------------------------------

KZA was right when he suggested Grogu's role claim is a viable "opposite" to my own, and if it's a real claim it ought to be a decent look at least. A bodyguard is close to useless for a mafia team. This must be tempered however, because at least one civilian role was useless to the civilian team (Alison's 50/50 cop).

------------------------------------------

I think Poison is the only player left without having claimed anything. That should probably change. I don't give a damn if it leads to her getting shot (no offense Poison). It might help figure the game out when the alternative is to just lose. @Poison, please claim your role. If you think you can absolutely break things open tonight and then claim in the day phase, that's fine.

------------------------------------------

KZA's role claim is a frustrating one, through no fault of his (unless he made it up). A chop stopper is extremely powerful for a mafia team. In this game, it could still fit on a team with 2 of them. If that's on a mafia team with 3 players, we've already effectively lost. I've seen such a role in civilian hands too, though I think it's much much less powerful there and indeed often outright harmful.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I find myself wondering now if Grogu's role is opposite to my own because it's oppositely aligned. Whether it's "useful" may not be meaningful. Alison's role was useless. But also:

My role is nearly useless. For a civilian to effectively use a hider role requires incredible good luck, and almost any other application just causes extra needless confusion that is harmful to the team. The only truly good impact it can have is to draw a night kill and direct it to someone else. I was robbed of that capacity well before Night 1 was over, so for me the role is worthless. I'm also obligated to use it. I don't know if that applies to anyone else.

Grogu's role would be nearly useless for a mafia team. He can technically sacrifice himself to a town vigilante in order to save a better-positioned teammate. Such an eventuality is possible, but through the lens of a randomized role list it ought to seem pretty rare. That kind of parallels my role in the opposite direction.

This is super speculative, but we have no choice. We must speculate.

[fingersplints]

I don’t know that I have ever been this excited for an end of game to read what the hell really happened on the nights.

Excited doesn’t really feel like the right word here. Anxious? Driven mad by curiousity? Where is Epignosis when you need him?

[Epignosis]

I was bummed after waking up and seeing the result. I'll be back after I've fulfilled other obligations and see what I can detect before the Night phase ends.

[Poison]

----

I think Poison is the only player left without having claimed anything. That should probably change. I don't give a damn if it leads to her getting shot (no offense Poison). It might help figure the game out when the alternative is to just lose. @Poison, please claim your role. If you think you can absolutely break things open tonight and then claim in the day phase, that's fine.

But I already claimed?? I'm a tracker and I targeted you N1 but got no results from Reways and I said that In d2 and again in d3.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

----

I think Poison is the only player left without having claimed anything. That should probably change. I don't give a damn if it leads to her getting shot (no offense Poison). It might help figure the game out when the alternative is to just lose. @Poison, please claim your role. If you think you can absolutely break things open tonight and then claim in the day phase, that's fine.

But I already claimed?? I'm a tracker and I targeted you N1 but got no results from Reways and I said that In d2 and again in d3.

Sorry I'm sure I missed it.

[Poison]

Hi hello I'm alive. I'll catch up I'm sorry too much stuff kinda giving me concussion. At first I'll just reply to the mentions.

The quickness of Grogu wagon is noted. Is it relevant? Who knows

@Poison would really like you to get in here and share your thoughts on stuff.

I will do that now, I need to read the thread though.

Town is being lead astray here

Who hasn't claimed? I think everyone who hasn't claimed should claim now.

@Enrique @Poison @reywaS @Grogu

I think these are the nonclaims, apologies if you claimed and i haven't seen it

Oh I can claim. I am the tracker. I tracked JJJ night 1 bot I got no results from reways.

@JaggedJimmyJay

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I see it now. I just overlooked the post. Any Night 2 targets @Poison?

[Poison]

I see it now. I just overlooked the post. Any Night 2 targets @Poison?

No I when I came back it was already day phase, could not send in the action.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I am the civilian jack of all trades.

One shot block.
One shot protect.
One shot vote strip.

All three of these abilities are compatible with the mafia alignment in a world where the civilians have a vigilante.

[G-Man]

More of the Same

Jacob Ferraro hung his head low while talking on the phone. He didn’t like what he was hearing.

“Dave, look,” he said. “You and Phil know people better than I do. I’m still on the newer side here and I’m always working late. You guys have connections in the neighborhood and you need to start working them.”

He paused while the other person spoke into his ear.

“I don’t want to wade into this Phase 1 versus Phase 3 pissing contest either, but you guys have to start talking reason into these people.”

Another short pause.

“Yeah, well, maybe it’s time we said ‘to hell with page 37 of the covenants.’”

The shortest of pauses.

“Because it has no legal standing, Dave! That’s why.”

Jacob started pacing as the man on the other end of the phone rattled on.

“If we keep doing this, we’re going to get sued by a lot of people. I would much rather get sued by someone for not executing a clause that has no legal standing than being sued by someone for enforcing it.”

He put his free hand to his forehead as he listened.

“Right. We’re already too deep in this to get out cleanly. We were board members when this mess started and we helped execute the first few. Ignorance to the law and all that. Look, I gotta get to work. Just try to calm some folks down if you can, okay? Thanks.”

-------------------------------

It is now Day 4.


It will last for 24 hours.


Nobody violated their post limits on Night 3.

[Epignosis]

No kill?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Really laughing this time

[Epignosis]

Someone's vote is worth zero. I won't say who.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hid behind KZA

I'm not sure two players exist in this game anymore that'd both miss a kill outright. Deliberate abstinence could still be true. If there are three of them we're at 5 vs. 3 and a kill would have made a minor difference anyway.

We'll see who splints blocked. I hope Epi's vote stop doesn't leave the civilians out of a vote they'd need to overtake mafia. I think that should only be the case if Enrique is a mafia doublevoter on a team of three.

Best to leave that name unrevealed all day I think.

[fingersplints]

I blocked grogu

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Three claimed blocks over the last two nights with two confirmed non-kills: Enrique, Scirrus, Grogu.

Might have myself a big ol' shrug, say that's the mafia team, take my ball, and go home.

[VOTE: Grogu] aubergine

At the least this time the kill was unlikely forgotten. Every single player made a night phase appearance. Drop one theory and leave two. Either Grogu was flat blocked or it's abstained on purpose. The latter isn't mutually exclusive with Grogu being mafia-aligned.

[Grogu]

i dont think grogu really seems aware enough of whats going on to be mafia

Absolutely not giving him that. He lived on it as mafia on purpose in Spiderverse.

Kinda. I had no idea what’s was going on for the most part.

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: Grogu] aubergine

[Enrique]

lets get his ass

[VOTE: grogu] aubergine

[Grogu]

I blocked grogu

I didn’t do anything.

[Grogu]

We have no kill again wtf that’s crazy

[Grogu]

Three claimed blocks over the last two nights with two confirmed non-kills: Enrique, Scirrus, Grogu.

Might have myself a big ol' shrug, say that's the mafia team, take my ball, and go home.

[VOTE: Grogu] aubergine

At the least this time the kill was unlikely forgotten. Every single player made a night phase appearance. Drop one theory and leave two. Either Grogu was flat blocked or it's abstained on purpose. The latter isn't mutually exclusive with Grogu being mafia-aligned.

I’m the Bg. Why would epi would block me?
That seems fishy. Also wtf wouldn’t scum who got blocked last night just carry the kill. I would never... be smart now

[Grogu]

[VOTE: Grogu] aubergine

I don’t believe epi is town. First all it wouldn’t make sense for me to carry kill if I was scum.
Same person who epi blocked should always kill exactly epi.
I see this as very opportunistic.

It makes no sense and jagged being INE of the best players just going with it is highly suspicious too.

[Grogu]

lets get his ass

[VOTE: grogu] aubergine

This is so wolfy bro

[JaggedJimmyJay]

splints claimed to block you Grogu, not Epignosis. Does this impact your perspective?

[Grogu]

Unvote me.
We need to wait for everyone to claim their results.
Scum are just fucking around now I’m sure. If I was the only block then they abstain unless someone got saved. Let’s be smart here.
I think Enrique is always scum now. He’s reaction is so faked

[Grogu]

splints claimed to block you Grogu, not Epignosis. Does this impact your perspective?

Yeah then it applies to finger.
Very opportunistic

[Grogu]

You played with me before. What are the chances you think I would carry the kill when I know that the player blocked the night before cannot be blocked again?

[Grogu]

Enrique and splint do make sense

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You played with me before. What are the chances you think I would carry the kill when I know that the player blocked the night before cannot be blocked again?

Was a player blocked last night? Do you know that?

[fingersplints]

You played with me before. What are the chances you think I would carry the kill when I know that the player blocked the night before cannot be blocked again?

The only player blocked last night who cannot be blocked again was scirrus. Potential slip up here?

[fingersplints]

splints claimed to block you Grogu, not Epignosis. Does this impact your perspective?

Yeah then it applies to finger.
Very opportunistic

I would agree that your accusations are very opportunistic .
You are just accusing anyone at this point.

I don’t really by that mafia would just abstain from the kill, when they haven’t had a single kill this game. This close to the end, reducing the numbers would be priority.

[Grogu]

You played with me before. What are the chances you think I would carry the kill when I know that the player blocked the night before cannot be blocked again?

Was a player blocked last night? Do you know that?

We were told enrique was n1 and scirrus next night. We also know there hasn’t been a kill so I just assuming.
I do know for 100% sure that blocking me did not block the kill unless epi is a Jail keeper and he actually protected me.
Then again I doubt scum will ever target me so I find that unlikely.
So unless someone protected finger then he is full of shit.
Wolves will always kill him as he is their biggest threat

[Grogu]

You played with me before. What are the chances you think I would carry the kill when I know that the player blocked the night before cannot be blocked again?

The only player blocked last night who cannot be blocked again was scirrus. Potential slip up here?

Not at all. That means that if you blocked the kill last night then scirrus just makes NK again. Which just tell us I’m not scum. Wolves are just not submitting if you truly blocked me. Or how else you explain no kill if I’m town?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@fingersplints what motivated you to block Grogu this time around?