Double Elimination Mafia town win

[Poison]

Poison/Tim/Alison and Alison be voted by Mafia to break tie.
Lol whhhhhyyyy Daisy?!?

I mean i could have voted her and save myself.

[Gavial]

They be voted anyway

Wy what do you want exactly

I wanna win.
Can I have it?

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

@MacDougall dies and flips town
@Gavial dies and flips town
@Made dies and flips...mafia!
@Poison dies and flips town

Long Con flips town.

D2 will end April 26 at 7pm EDT. Three people must be sent to the losers bracket, and you will have three votes apiece.

PEOPLE WHO CAN POST:
@Kylemii
@Marmot
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@DrWilgy
@Moghedien
@hollowkatt


People who CANNOT post:
@Alison
@Timsup2nothin
@TonyStarkPrime
@DaisyCloud

Your postcaps are these plus 100:

[G-Man]

Shit just got real gang. Let’s take this day phase seriously and not repeat the EoD bedwetting that happened in the LB.

@NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME- Can we get the Long Con modkill flip please?

[G-Man]

Stage 1: Let’s all do a little re-reading of Made and share some gleanings. Let’s try to sniff out some associations if we cab.

Stage 2: I think we should talk about the remaining four LB members a little to determine whether or not we believe there are any baddies among them.

Stage 3: Once we reach some kind of consensus (or at least share our respective thoughts- let’s set a goal of mid-phase for this at the very latest), we start talking about how many baddies we think may be among us.

Stage 4: We determine whom we want to send to the LB and why. The good news is that we aren’t required to slam dunk all three baddies with our votes. Do we want to send three folks down for the remaining LB folks to slaughter outright? Do we want to send a strong civvie read down to help strengthen whatever town core we may think is down there?

[G-Man]

Shoot- I just realized that our host is only giving us 24 hours on the day phase. I assumed it would be 48 hours like Day 1. So much for a slow and deliberative process.

[Marmot]

Yaaaay!! We got one!

I haven't read up on the night, will do so later.

[hollowkatt]

I read the "night" phase. I like Tim for town. Kinda like Daisy for town but also kinda don't. It's a feeling thing, not a "here's a wolf post" thing.
Alison I still think is wolfy. TSP I can never read

[Kylemii]

hellobgood morning

Iwill fill my brain with food and water and sleep until it stops hurting me so much and then look at Made's iso

[Marmot]

Kyle, it's evening.

Feliz Jueves!

[Marmot]

Ugh, I wish it was simple to see who's alive in the loser's bracket.

[Kylemii]

just found out by watching a pokemon tournament what "double elimination" means and it doesn't mean "eliminate twice as much" it's something else entirely

[Kylemii]

in case anyone was wondering

[Marmot]

just found out by watching a pokemon tournament what "double elimination" means and it doesn't mean "eliminate twice as much" it's something else entirely

Well, it's sorta like that.

Depending on what you mean by twice as much.

[hollowkatt]

Ugh, I wish it was simple to see who's alive in the loser's bracket.

It is. Look at the latest nanook post, read who's not able to post currently. It's Tim, Alison, TSP, and Daisy

[Marmot]

Posting for reference


Winner's Bracket

DrWilgy
falcon45ca
G-Man
hollowkatt
Kylemii
Marmot
Moghedien


Loser's Bracket

Alison
DaisyCloud
Timsup2nothin
TonyStarkPrime


Dead

Gavial - Town
Long Con - Town
MacDougall - Town
Made - Mafia
Poison - Town

[Marmot]

Ugh, I wish it was simple to see who's alive in the loser's bracket.

It is. Look at the latest nanook post, read who's not able to post currently. It's Tim, Alison, TSP, and Daisy

I want a post with bright colors like the one I just posted that says "here's who's dead, and here's who's winning and here's who's losing"

[hollowkatt]

Thanks Marmot!
Do you think there are any wolves left in Bracket 2?

[Marmot]

Thanks Marmot!
Do you think there are any wolves left in Bracket 2?

I don't feel strongly about any of them being wolves, but I'll post my thoughts when I'm done catching up.

What about you?

[G-Man]

I read the "night" phase. I like Tim for town. Kinda like Daisy for town but also kinda don't. It's a feeling thing, not a "here's a wolf post" thing.
Alison I still think is wolfy. TSP I can never read

Same for me on Tim. I'm fanboying him this side of the night phase still. There were a few posts where he laid it on a little thick, but I still dig his vibe or sure.

Daisy I still have soft-civ inclinations for. I liked how she was willing to stand up to Alison, but I do think she dwelled on it too long.

I still don't trust Alison but I can tin foil a world where the four remaining in the LB are all civvie an the baddies broke the tie to keep Alison alive for psychological games.

I need to ruminate on Tony a little longer. There are some posts in his ISO where he says things that are true in hindsight. That gives me pause, but I think I've hosted Tony more than played with him, and I don't pay much attention to playstyle or take notes on how players play when I host.

Also, here are ISO links, because it's insufferable otherwise:

Host Nanook

Winners Bracket:
Falcon
G-Man
HK
Kyle
Marmot
Moghedien
Wilgy


Losers Bracket:
Alison
DaisyCloud
Tim
TSP


Dead:
Gavial<---CIVVIE
LC<---CIVVIE
MacDougall<---CIVVIE
Made<---MAFIA
Poison<---CIVVIE

[G-Man]

Searching through Made's ISO I find the following "reads":

Day 1:
Tim = sus
Daisy = prob town

Votes for Alison (because scary), Tim (because making sense), Marmot (because of entry votes), and TSP (because of arbitrary votes). Later votes Mac (because ??)


Night 1:
Mac = sus
Alison = worth keeping around
Daisy = loltown
Gavial = sus
Tim = sus
TSP = ?


Also a fair amount of complementary chatter toward Alison. This makes me wonder a lot, because it could go either way. Made could have been complementing Alison in order to draw imaginary dots between them if she is civvie, or Made could have been complimenting teammate Alison to the extent that he did to make us think it's unlikely that he would do such a thing.

Made was also somewhat noncommittal about Tony. I'll have to check Tony's ISO to see if there's anything notable from the other direction.

We also have Made dropping a sus read on Tim, and an loltown read on Daisy. This is the point where tinfoil starts to warp my brain, so I'm going to bed.

I hope we can get sufficient chatter in this thread to work out our thoughts on the LB remnant and which three of us should join them. I'll do what I can, but I will be phone-posting from work, and I have to mow the lawn tomorrow night, which will cut very close to the deadline.

It sure would have been nice for the LB folks to have actually shared opinions on us WB folks. Three dead LB civvies could have given us something to start with in evaluating each other. But no. This is why we can't have nice things.

[Marmot]

Still catching up on the night. I'm compiling my observations in one post due to the post cap.

It occurred to me that we should probably operate under the assumption that we have two wolves here in the winner's bracket. Obviously it might not be true, but we have to eliminate three people today regardless.

[Marmot]

It sure would have been nice for the LB folks to have actually shared opinions on us WB folks. Three dead LB civvies could have given us something to start with in evaluating each other. But no. This is why we can't have nice things.

Gavial and Daisy were doing this. From my memory Daisy had scumreads on myself and Mog, and Gavial had townreads on myself, TSP, and falcon.

[Marmot]

Some observations I had reading through the night. I've spoiled them for length.

Spoiler: show

I am very disappointed Marmot didn't get put in the lower bracket.

I'm as disappointed as you are.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

for someone who wanted in so bad and all all murder daisy now .. Alison has been surprisingly quiet.

and I thought she was going to cut off MacDougall's head and parade it around too.

Daisy jumped on Alison in the first two hours for being quit. Meh.

Okay, so four of us are gonna die, and the other four are kinda winding up as the guardians of the future. So before we get totally involved in murdering each other I think everyone should commit to a legacy reads list on the other eight players (and no I am not ready to give such list now but I will. When four die I'm hoping we get two wolves and I am really confident we get one...but I think it is unlikely we get all three and end the game so the legacies of the town flips will be important.

Mac even though I am about 90% convinced you are town I am glad you are here.

Alison, I am pretty sure you are wolfing but I am putting that aside and hoping we can sort out the best four kills if you are town.

glgl

I liked this post from tim, and it's a good strategy for everyone. I mean, legacies are generally good, but we lose multiple voices at once, so it's even more crucial.

[VOTE: Alison] aubergine
[VOTE: Gavial] aubergine
[VOTE: Made] aubergine
[VOTE: Poison] aubergine

He votes literally everyone except Tim and Daisy.

Yeah they look pretty damn aligned from where I'm standing. Maybe it's scum Mac trying to desperation antispew, but either way we should get rid of him.

Tim going from "there's a wolf between Mac and Alison, and I'm leaning towards Alison" -> "Alison is 90% scum" is a puzzling progression, and I think a convenient one.

DaisyCloud is probably the one among the three least likely to be actually scum because despite their scummy behavior they have towntold a couple of times and they're in the position to be wrongly antispewed as scum due to being incorrectly linked to scum players. I still think they have legitimate wolf equity however, and they're probably a good exe just to clear things up on that front.

If I am wrong about my 3-person solve, the next candidates are probably Kylemii (for being really spooked about dropping into the loser's bracket) or hollowkatt (as far as I can tell they're just straight sussing all the people I think are town). I think it's weird that Marmot wanted so badly to go to loser's but ended up not going when anyone else who was pressured to go to loser's did. I don't know if that's AI for him, or in what direction, but it's a note I'm sticking here.

[VOTE: Tim] aubergine
[VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine
[VOTE: DaisyCloud] aubergine

My strong town reads are Gavial, Moghedien, Falcon, G-Man. I am willing to put myself in the 4 as a show of good faith if it will convince any of you to put my scumreads in as well (Tim/Macdougall/DaisyCloud). If my scumreads don't pan out, fall back on my town reads. That's my legacy.

I don't like this post from Alison

1) She's operating under the assumption that Mac is a wolf, which (aside from being clearly wrong at this point) she did from the getgo.
2) She made a weird argument against me for not making it to the loser's bracket, despite my advocating for it and even self-voting.



Losing LC sucks, but I guess we'll still have the same number people left by the end of tonight regardless, just one of the flips was automatically a townie.

Didn’t even ping Mog and they viewing thread.
Convincing me more and more Mog is scum in winners bracket.
But I’m also quite paranoid dough.

HK and Mog viewing but not scouting in ball.

Interesting.

Mac/Poison/Alison/Tim Today
HK/Mog/Whoever/IDK Gavial if you want. tomorrow

Should be it.
As HK/Mog is really the only scum I can see in the winners bracket.

37 Posts Remain.

I don't know what scouting in ball means, but I'm not ready to drop someone who was viewing the thread lol

Since when and where should you ever compare yourself to made?

I didn't. I questioned you about the fact you said nothing about him until you arrived at "yeah take Made to N2."

To me the real sort of level comparison for Made is TSP. Both are very cool heads who if town will be reliable to make well thought out decisions. Both are just pretty null reads currently who have not committed to anything that is likely to either clear or condemn them any time soon. So I think either one of them is a fine fourth, and either one of them can die.

I think Daisy is good active leadership, and I think you and I are good offsets for each other. I also think that both of us need that offset for the same general reasons that I don't think letting either Alison or Mac go forward would be a good idea.

If Daisy, TSP, and Made agree that killing Mac and Alison plus you and me is a good idea I could probably back that.

This post seems very team-oriented coming from Tim. Either that or it's an attempt to distance from Daisy and set her up for deepwolfing. But given that Made was one of the wolves, I doubt it at this point. If that is the case, at least they're already in the loser's bracket.

Oh no, I hope no one scum reads me for something innocuous

LOL

I struggle to believe that Tim believes Daisy is the town leader the game so desperately needs.

I'm no town leader. I am town tho.

you most definitely are no town leader. this is not how a person who claims to be town should lead. just mowing people down and bashing everyone.

just because someone disagrees with you doesn't automatically make them scum. just because someone makes a mistake doesn't make them scum either.

stop being so antagonistic. stop treating like everyone is a complete idiot. get that chip off your shoulder. no one put it there but yourself.

this attitude you got, this im gonna just punch everyone in the throat and idc who I offend is messed up. just chill out and calm the fudge down.

town doesn't need u to be this jerk to everyone. this right here is why I didn't want to be in any bracket with u. having to deal with your hate. what is your deal? this can not be the way you actually find wolves. maybe it worked once upon a time in a game ages ago.

the way I see it this tends to be more of a scum tactic than a town one. to yell so loud and put everyone on the defense so you can misyeet to your heart's content. and you can layer just be like oop well they shouldn't have been so weak and scummy. well, collateral damage right? we'll get a wolf next time.


why is Tony so town for u? how r u so sure?

oh, and your so called act of good faith, it's trash. it's no doubt you calling everyone's bluff. you want people to think you are so town for saying that. it's sus and you know it. no self respecting town wants themselves yeeted just so they can have 3 of their scum reads get lynched too.

that is not how a town player thinks nor how they think town can win.

a town player does however from time to time thinks and will say that if they are mislynched or should be muslynchdd so town can gain info and/or insights. that if they are lynched it's okay because they were in the poe and it will help town determine who is the actual scum.

this, what you are bargaining for may to some look like that is what u r doing but it's not. you're not sacrificing yourself. you're no martyr here. this is narcissistic and selfish and completely scummy. it's cringe and wrong.

you want out so bad to get town killed go vote yourself. if not then calm down and get logical. idk why u r determined to watch town burn.

Daisy put a lot of effort responding to an Alison post that looked primarily directed at tim.

I agree with the point on Alison, but I don't really like the tone (Daisy I hope you're not too upset about this game).

is it bad that part of the reason I want to have Marmot here isn't just my small scum lean but also they are nice and funny and can be a palette cleanser to Allison?

I feel like even if Marmot were to scum read me and get me misyeeted out at least they will be kind and not hateful and I won't hate this game. that I will enjoy playing. I won't be salty post game.

is that sus? probably. is it cringe? definitely. should I not make this post? most definitely

does it still make me town? of course


nothing good ever happens after 2am. yolo

plus Marmot has the cutest pfp

Awwww Daisy, my heart melted reading this post. <3

If I ever misyeet you it was never intentional (even if I do it as scum I don't think I could do it intentionally).



Also, it's probably just hindsight speaking, but Mac's points in response to Alison's approach are kinda townie, especially in posts like this.

Mac is raising a good point that the entire game seems to have swallowed the "at least one between Mac and Alison" narrative whole. That might be an indicator he is town. I don't understand why he played the early game the way he did but he's giving me his vote for this bracket. That means that either:

Sigh... I'm really confused about this one. Alison basically dragged Mac into the loser's bracket and created this dichotomy, and is now here realizing the impact on the game it's having. Kyle even made a comment Day 1 (or maybe it was someone else) saying they didn't want to go to the loser's bracket because it would be an Alison/Mac shouting match.

[VOTE: TonyStarkPrime ] aubergine he looks like he randed mafia and is playing it safe. yes, I read his iso.

Also, Daisy suspects Tony.

Oh no, I hope no one scum reads me for something innocuous

....I SAAAAIIIIDDDD

I HOPE NO ONE SCUM READ ME FOR SOMETHING INNOCUOUS

im not exactly sure what innocuous means. because I'm not actually sure how it is pronounced. it looks like it could be 2 different words. also im not sure exactly how the 2 words I hear in my head to the pronunciation of innocuous is spelled so I can't make heads or tails that way either to differentiate ..

also I low key forgot about you and that's no good. I guess I go to your iso.

I don't know what Made was doing here. This was his second post of the day, and it was a reiteration of the first. But I do like this post from Daisy.

I’m voting poison because I think that’s a likely wolf and gav cause if we have 4 chops we can chop gav and not sure what to do with the other two

I don't like this vote, or TSP skipping over the rest of the discussion between Alison/Mac/Daisy/Tim, although I don't blame him.

I thought poison looked fine at this point, or at least compared to Made's lack of content.

It's 4:30 am. I'm sleepy. :')

I can't believe you stayed up so late for a mafia game!!

Tim and Daisy are basically town atp. They both voted for Made, and are the only living loser's bracket players who did. They also were the only ones to respond to Made's random pop-in. They are teammate-compatible with each other, but I really think that they don't yeet Made in that situation. All it takes is for one of them to remove a vote.

Reading Poison/Made/TSP isos.

I came away from Poison with a slight scumlean. I'm not seeing much that is helping shed light on people's alignments and a lot of one liner responses to quotes that don't go anywhere. This is not out of Poison's townrange because she's very much a dynamic and high energy player who throws herself into the latest posts and just responds to every part of it regardless of "relevance". Nevertheless the bottom line is that the noise to signal ratio is poor.

I am fine with Made's ISO. Meta reads on DaisyCloud and Tim both seem genuine, especially as they are not that unlikely to be correct.

TSP is being TSP. He doubts there are 3 wolves, we know for a fact that there are. Could be a derp clear I guess but so many people have "derp cleared" based on setup stuff that I am not comfortable assigning too much weight to derp clear. Everything else seems within normal range for him, but I have admitted that I am a poor TSP reader. I would stick him at null, maybe a slight townlean since his reads seem to align with mine.

Of those three I would rather take Made out of the four-exe vote.

This was Alison's only mention of Made during Night 1. "I am fine with Made's ISO". That's definitely teammate compatible.

TSP didn't mention Made at all. Also teammate compatible.

[Marmot]

I'll look at winner's bracket players tomorrow

[Moghedien]

Why is it so quiet?

@DrWilgy @falcon45ca @G-Man @hollowkatt @Kylemii @Marmot

Come out and play!

I think anyone wanting to be in the second bracket is sus af

okay wait expand on this

makes sense to me anyways. bracket 2 is where the actual chopping happens. If you want to be in there getting your hands dirty, instead of sending all the wolfy people there to fight amongst themselves maybe you have an agenda

True, but anyone in the loser's bracket has a 50% chance of being yeeted, and I imagine it'll just be pure chaos. I get wanting to stay in the winner's bracket but the wolves have more incentive to stay there than to drop down.

This conversation between Marmot and Katt is very interesting, since Made was one of the loudest about volunteering for the losers bracket and he was guilty. Katt may have been distancing themselves from Made, but given the circumstances I think it’s likelier that Katt is simply innocent. I’m town reading Katt for this.

Marmot may be seen as indirectly defending Made here. The only thing that makes me hesitate to condemn Marmot for this is that I believe Marmot also volunteered for the losers bracket, albeit less loudly than Made. It may be that Marmot is innocent, and they argued this point because they knew it didn’t apply to them. As well, I doubt two of the three wolves would volunteer themselves for the losers bracket. I just don’t see what they would gain from that.

tl;dr: Katt looks great here. Marmot was wrong, but it’s hard for me to say whether they look bad for it.

Losers Bracket

Alison
Mac
Tim
Daisy
Gavial
Made
Poison
Tsp

My for sure votes:
Mac and Alison for self resolve reasons
Tim because gut and I don’t want them to late game.

Never voting TSP, hard town.
Leaving Made/Daisy/Poison as my PoE for this elimination.
Leaning Poison, not confident in either 3 though.

I’m hoping @Marmot and @falcon45ca can both lead town in the Winners Bracket and make sure the scum are unable to lead it.

I’m not caught up on what happened overnight yet, but I’m linking this post since Gavial’s read on Marmot is relevant to what I’m talking about now.

[Moghedien]

I’m taking a break from reading the Losers Bracket, since it sort of feels like a separate game at this point, and I iso’d Made instead.

I’m glad I did, because I learned that Made had almost no interactions with anyone currently in the Winners bracket except for Marmot. I didn’t count, but Made interacted with Marmot a lot, maybe more times than he interacted anyone else. That’s interesting in light of the conversation I quoted above.

There’s a lot to be said, but I’ll start with this: Made tried to direct suspicion toward Marmot several times, and in his final posts, basically said it should have been Marmot instead of him. That makes me town read Marmot, for a few different reasons.

First, Marmot and Made had very incongruous behavior toward each other. Marmot was amicable toward Made, while Made was suspicious of Marmot. I don’t see any sense of strategy or coordination between them. If they were teammates, then they weren’t very good at it, because they went in opposite directions.

Second, why would Made use his dying breath to curse Marmot if they were teammates, especially when the mafia should want to play conservatively after losing Made? This couldn’t have been an attempt at bussing, because there was no way for Marmot to die before Made at that point.

Finally, Gavial proved that he had a good handle on this game with the way he went after Made, so his town read on Marmot holds some sway with me.

The person in our bracket who we learn the most about from Made’s flip is Marmot, so I’m very curious to hear what you all have to say about them. I think we can safely treat Katt and Marmot as our town core today. Now we just need them to help us hunt more, lol.

[Moghedien]

Someone should iso Falco next, since they were Gavial’s other town read. I’m going to bed, but I’ll be back well before EOD.

[Moghedien]

@G-Man @Marmot do you two still want to go to the Loser’s Bracket?

[hollowkatt]

Thanks Marmot!
Do you think there are any wolves left in Bracket 2?

I don't feel strongly about any of them being wolves, but I'll post my thoughts when I'm done catching up.

What about you?

I think if there's a wolf in Bracket 2 it's Alison and/or TSP. Tim is my strongest Bracket 2 town read. Daisy is less strong, but still stronger than Alison or TSP

[hollowkatt]

I like marmots analysis of Daisy/Tim from Bracket 2 as it's basically my earlier post but with reasons and quotes. That we came to the same conclusion makes me feel better about Marmot especially b/c lord knows pocketing me doesn't really get him anywhere. I'm not a strong voice and not as invested as some other people are.

As far as Bracket 1 people I like Marmot, Mohhedien, G-Man for town.
I don't have an opinion yet on Falcon, Kyle, or Wigly.

[G-Man]

@G-Man @Marmot do you two still want to go to the Loser’s Bracket?

Sort of. The way I see it, we should send one person that we trust over to the LB, along with two people we’re sus about. We need to reinforce whatever towncore we believe we have in there. For me, that means sending backup for Tim and (to a lesser extent) Daisy. If I’m determined to be that best backup, send me on over. If we feel someone else is better suited to find one or two baddies in the next LB chop, then I will respect that call as well.

Given who remains in the LB, I don’t see N2 being a case if them ganging up on whomever we send over today. I think there are some rational minds in there who will think our decisions through. The good news is that the baddies are not in a position to control the LB with only two members remaining. If we end up with both of them in the LB, it’s 5v2. The worst-case scenario is that both baddies are left in the WB after today. That would give them almost complete control of the game.

As for the WB, I feel confident about HK. I’m not as ready to plant my flag in support of Marmot yet, but I lean town for his willingness to dig in and contribute. This is such a treacherous setup in that it’s a short enough game for the baddies to find both coasting and strong-arming as viable paths to victory. I used the coast option in Corrupt?!- another unconventional game setup- to maximum effect. Wilgy was my teammate then, so I know that is in his wheelhouse. He’s not one to dive in and go post crazy very often either, so he gets an unfortunate reputation of being the kind of low-key player that has to be ‘dealt with’ at some point.

Sending Wilgy to the LB is tricky. If we’re sending him there just to be slaughtered, that’s one thing, but if he’s a civvie, there’s the risk of him low- or no-posting, costing the LB civs a civvie voice and potentially civvie votes. I’m trying not to overthink that one too much because this game moves too quickly to allow for overthinking.

What do we think of Mac’s assertion that Falcon is derp-cleared because of the v-town vs town role card when someone else said they were v-town? Falcon made no impression on me whatsoever D1.

I need to read Kyle’s ISO. I had him at -2 on my score thingy, so a review is needed there.

Moghedien had a + and an x, making them a net null at the end of the day. No experience with them, so I have no basis or foundation to build from. @hollowkat- what are you seeing in Moghedien that leaves you feeling good?

Also, the reason I was quiet is that I am EST. I was sleeping, showering, eating breakfast, and starting my workday at the office. I’ll check back over lunch, but the 24-hour day kneecaps my ability to participate too much more today. I will try to sneak it in as best I can.

[hollowkatt]

I think what we really need to do today, and by today I mean in the next 9ish hours, is to dig deep into Falcon, Wigly, Kyle.
I like G-Man, Marmot, and Moghedien for some levels of town. The other three I have at best vague feelings.

I'll be reading Falcon first b/c of the mac derp comment and b/c Moghedien asked for people to read falcon

[hollowkatt]

@G-Man @Marmot do you two still want to go to the Loser’s Bracket?

Sort of. The way I see it, we should send one person that we trust over to the LB, along with two people we’re sus about. We need to reinforce whatever towncore we believe we have in there. For me, that means sending backup for Tim and (to a lesser extent) Daisy. If I’m determined to be that best backup, send me on over. If we feel someone else is better suited to find one or two baddies in the next LB chop, then I will respect that call as well.

Given who remains in the LB, I don’t see N2 being a case if them ganging up on whomever we send over today. I think there are some rational minds in there who will think our decisions through. The good news is that the baddies are not in a position to control the LB with only two members remaining. If we end up with both of them in the LB, it’s 5v2. The worst-case scenario is that both baddies are left in the WB after today. That would give them almost complete control of the game.

As for the WB, I feel confident about HK. I’m not as ready to plant my flag in support of Marmot yet, but I lean town for his willingness to dig in and contribute. This is such a treacherous setup in that it’s a short enough game for the baddies to find both coasting and strong-arming as viable paths to victory. I used the coast option in Corrupt?!- another unconventional game setup- to maximum effect. Wilgy was my teammate then, so I know that is in his wheelhouse. He’s not one to dive in and go post crazy very often either, so he gets an unfortunate reputation of being the kind of low-key player that has to be ‘dealt with’ at some point.

Sending Wilgy to the LB is tricky. If we’re sending him there just to be slaughtered, that’s one thing, but if he’s a civvie, there’s the risk of him low- or no-posting, costing the LB civs a civvie voice and potentially civvie votes. I’m trying not to overthink that one too much because this game moves too quickly to allow for overthinking.

What do we think of Mac’s assertion that Falcon is derp-cleared because of the v-town vs town role card when someone else said they were v-town? Falcon made no impression on me whatsoever D1.

I need to read Kyle’s ISO. I had him at -2 on my score thingy, so a review is needed there.

Moghedien had a + and an x, making them a net null at the end of the day. No experience with them, so I have no basis or foundation to build from. @hollowkat- what are you seeing in Moghedien that leaves you feeling good?

Also, the reason I was quiet is that I am EST. I was sleeping, showering, eating breakfast, and starting my workday at the office. I’ll check back over lunch, but the 24-hour day kneecaps my ability to participate too much more today. I will try to sneak it in as best I can.

@G-Man I really like these two from Moghedien

Spoiler: show

Why is it so quiet?

@DrWilgy @falcon45ca @G-Man @hollowkatt @Kylemii @Marmot

Come out and play!

I think anyone wanting to be in the second bracket is sus af

okay wait expand on this

makes sense to me anyways. bracket 2 is where the actual chopping happens. If you want to be in there getting your hands dirty, instead of sending all the wolfy people there to fight amongst themselves maybe you have an agenda

True, but anyone in the loser's bracket has a 50% chance of being yeeted, and I imagine it'll just be pure chaos. I get wanting to stay in the winner's bracket but the wolves have more incentive to stay there than to drop down.

This conversation between Marmot and Katt is very interesting, since Made was one of the loudest about volunteering for the losers bracket and he was guilty. Katt may have been distancing themselves from Made, but given the circumstances I think it’s likelier that Katt is simply innocent. I’m town reading Katt for this.

Marmot may be seen as indirectly defending Made here. The only thing that makes me hesitate to condemn Marmot for this is that I believe Marmot also volunteered for the losers bracket, albeit less loudly than Made. It may be that Marmot is innocent, and they argued this point because they knew it didn’t apply to them. As well, I doubt two of the three wolves would volunteer themselves for the losers bracket. I just don’t see what they would gain from that.

tl;dr: Katt looks great here. Marmot was wrong, but it’s hard for me to say whether they look bad for it.

Losers Bracket

Alison
Mac
Tim
Daisy
Gavial
Made
Poison
Tsp

My for sure votes:
Mac and Alison for self resolve reasons
Tim because gut and I don’t want them to late game.

Never voting TSP, hard town.
Leaving Made/Daisy/Poison as my PoE for this elimination.
Leaning Poison, not confident in either 3 though.

I’m hoping @Marmot and @falcon45ca can both lead town in the Winners Bracket and make sure the scum are unable to lead it.

I’m not caught up on what happened overnight yet, but I’m linking this post since Gavial’s read on Marmot is relevant to what I’m talking about now.

I’m taking a break from reading the Losers Bracket, since it sort of feels like a separate game at this point, and I iso’d Made instead.

I’m glad I did, because I learned that Made had almost no interactions with anyone currently in the Winners bracket except for Marmot. I didn’t count, but Made interacted with Marmot a lot, maybe more times than he interacted anyone else. That’s interesting in light of the conversation I quoted above.

There’s a lot to be said, but I’ll start with this: Made tried to direct suspicion toward Marmot several times, and in his final posts, basically said it should have been Marmot instead of him. That makes me town read Marmot, for a few different reasons.

First, Marmot and Made had very incongruous behavior toward each other. Marmot was amicable toward Made, while Made was suspicious of Marmot. I don’t see any sense of strategy or coordination between them. If they were teammates, then they weren’t very good at it, because they went in opposite directions.

Second, why would Made use his dying breath to curse Marmot if they were teammates, especially when the mafia should want to play conservatively after losing Made? This couldn’t have been an attempt at bussing, because there was no way for Marmot to die before Made at that point.

Finally, Gavial proved that he had a good handle on this game with the way he went after Made, so his town read on Marmot holds some sway with me.

The person in our bracket who we learn the most about from Made’s flip is Marmot, so I’m very curious to hear what you all have to say about them. I think we can safely treat Katt and Marmot as our town core today. Now we just need them to help us hunt more, lol.

These two posts feel like really solid analysis and reasonable attempts to solve people in Bracket 1 so that we send the proper people into Bracket 2

[hollowkatt]

ok, I'd murder falcon

[falcon45ca]

What did I miss?

[G-Man]

Something irks me about Kyle's ISO. There are quotes and multi-quotes, but not many of them are interactions. He comments about a lot of things without getting in the middle of much.

Kyle has worked up his post count, so congrats- participation trophy earned- but there's little meat present. He seems to be doing enough and present enough to get by in the minds of others, but about 80% of it seems to serve as a way to fly under the radar. I had him a a -2 on my score thingy. He's no closer to neutral after reading his ISO.

What do you folks think of a possible Made-Tony-Kyle team? I think Tony might be the one I'm most concerned about in the LB at the moment just because he's put up a strong poker face thus far.


@hollowkat What are you seeing in Falcon's ISO that overrides the proposed derp-clear?

[hollowkatt]

What did I miss?

playing the game

[falcon45ca]

What did I miss?

playing the game

Shit, can't argue with that.

[hollowkatt]

Something irks me about Kyle's ISO. There are quotes and multi-quotes, but not many of them are interactions. He comments about a lot of things without getting in the middle of much.

Kyle has worked up his post count, so congrats- participation trophy earned- but there's little meat present. He seems to be doing enough and present enough to get by in the minds of others, but about 80% of it seems to serve as a way to fly under the radar. I had him a a -2 on my score thingy. He's no closer to neutral after reading his ISO.

What do you folks think of a possible Made-Tony-Kyle team? I think Tony might be the one I'm most concerned about in the LB at the moment just because he's put up a strong poker face thus far.


@hollowkat What are you seeing in Falcon's ISO that overrides the proposed derp-clear?

I think Made/TSP is entirely possible. I think Falcon might fight well there. Focus on TSP early and completely ignore Made all together.
Kyle is eh? I can see him being a wolf sure.

Re Falcon:
His ISO is 16 posts of meh.

Spoiler: show

Third.


TSP going for the derp clear early I see. It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for him

First post. It's eh.

What about waiting for everyone to check in and eliminating actual scummy people?

i think everyone here including gav is probably town. therefore, the other 12 people probably have wolves.

we have eight eliminations today let's not kid ourselves and pretend there's an easy way to do this.

Why do you think everyone "here" are town? Seems awful quick to jump to that conclusion, why aren't you more paranoid?

Shades TSP here for not being paranoid enough. At the time this was posted Alison, TSP, Tim, and Gavial were the only ones who'd posted. He's focused two posts now on TSP even though Tim, Alison, and Gavial have all contributed more in terms of the game than TSP has.
So then I have to ask myself is this wolf falcon trying to get TSP killed or is this town falcon being adequately paranoid about TSP but then if he's town what does he think of the other people who aren't TSP at this point in the game.
It kinda doesn't feel like town to me.

Inspired loosely by the double elimination baseball and basketball tournaments of my youth. Days are the winners bracket and nights are the losers bracket. There are zero PRs in this game, everyone is VT or mafia goon.

On D1 half the player base (half minus one if an odd number) is “eliminated.” Every “night” the “eliminated” players vote half their number (half minus one if an odd number) to be eliminated a second time, resulting in their final removal from the game.

On D2 the winners bracket choose half their number to be eliminated (half minus one if an odd number). On N2 the D2 eliminations are added to the losers bracket and they vote half their number (half minus one if an odd number) to be eliminated, resulting in their final removal from the game.

Rinse and repeat until one side wins or it reaches 2 in the winners bracket, at which point the brackets are combined and it becomes normal mountainous mafia. The town win by killing the mafia, and the mafia win at parity OR if the winners bracket is entirely made up of mafia.

This may be a bit confusing, so here’s an example:

16 players A-P, with three mafia (A, E, F).

On D1 players I-P are eliminated and move to the losers bracket. On N1 A-H cannot post or vote. I-P vote to eliminate M-P, who all die and flip town.

There are now 12 players alive, 8 in the winners bracket and 4 in the losers.

On D2 only A-H can post and vote. They vote to move E-H to the losers bracket. Now on N2 E-P vote to remove I-P. They all flip town.

There are now 8 players alive, 4 in each bracket, and 3 of the 8 are mafia.

On D3 A-D vote to move C-D to the losers bracket. On N3 C-H vote to remove F-H. F flips mafia, the other two flip town.

There are now 5 players alive, 2 in the winners bracket and 3 in the losers. The two brackets are combined on D4, and the game plays as mountainous for f5 (and f3 if necessary).

The mafia DO NOT have a NK until the game becomes mountainous.


16 players would be ideal, i can scale down if necessary. Winners and losers brackets can make reads on people in the other bracket freely, it’s all one game just with an artificial separation post-D1.

Town role PM:

You're town. You win by killing the mafia. Glhf.

Host Rules:

Spoiler: show

Votes are plurality at deadline. Mafia decide ties. You will be allowed to make as many votes as there are people that will be removed from the phase (ie d1 you'll have 8 votes, n1 you'll have 4, etc. etc.). Votes cannot stack (i.e., you can only ever make one vote for one person, you can't stack 8 vltes on one person). I will always tell you in the SOD post how many votes you have and how many people need to be removed.

When the game moves to mountainous at end game, the voting rules become: plurality at deadline, one vote per player, 2/3 hammer*. There will be an unvote option in the poll, this will not be hammerable.

*some creative rounding will be done at host's discretion (ie hammer may be set at 8/13 instead of 9/13), hammer number will always be in the SOD post.


The host rules are: don’t be a dick, no excessive ATE*, don’t angleshoot or quote role PMs and/or host communication, no cross game reads, idc about reading into subs or modkills do it at your own risk, GM will handle everything without consideration for alignment, GM reserves right to modify remove or add rules as needed.

*defined as: statements that directly say or imply that something in the game is having a negative impact on someone’s out of game relationships or well-being. if you believe the game is having a negative impact on your life, please contact myself and the Mod On Duty

Postcap is 100 posts per cycle (d1/n1 is one cycle, etc). Posts do NOT reset for the losers bracket, if you use 100 posts during the day and get voted into the losers bracket you will not be able to post. Use them wisely.

I reserve the right to modify add remove or interpret rules at my discretion

Nothing here says 3 wolves?

Yes it does

More TSP focus. I'm fairly convinced TSP and Falcon are either w/w or falcon w tsp town

What about waiting for everyone to check in and eliminating actual scummy people?

i think everyone here including gav is probably town. therefore, the other 12 people probably have wolves.

we have eight eliminations today let's not kid ourselves and pretend there's an easy way to do this.

Why do you think everyone "here" are town? Seems awful quick to jump to that conclusion, why aren't you more paranoid?

Alison’s in standard town form, Alison said gav was town and Tim was a fourth person (who actually I think is a bit townier than average which idk I don’t have a timometer tbh

The only one you gave any reason for being town that makes any sense is Alison.

Not really Falcon, not really. If Alison is in standard town form, and she's town reading Gavial it seems like TSP can say "I town read all three posting people"
Maybe they're w/w together? I dunno

Voting in the poll so I can see what's going on.

There's a "don't vote, see results" ya know....ya, you know. I know that you know you know

Feels like shade without being shade

also also I'm the only one without a vote

scummy tbh.

and your pfp........

why being a jester!?!?

it's not being a jester. My hometown american football team is the Detroit Lions. We're a very bad team. Don't win a lot.
So that's a lion, doing a cool jump in front of the Detroit River waterfront buildings, saying I wanna die. Has nothing to do with mafia or being a jester

wouldn't have guessed it. but hey glad to play with you again.

Voting in the poll so I can see what's going on.

There's a "don't vote, see results" ya know....ya, you know. I know that you know you know

I honestly have no idea why I read it out loud like ik exactly how you would have said it out loud. I have probably played with you once(?)

That's ok. What did I sound like?

I don't even know what this means or why/how it's relevant

Also, this poll will have 128 votes by the time the day is over. I don't see how you can't hide ur votes here as scum. Multivariable wagonomics sounds disgusting

I plan to put four of my votes on people I think have really good wolf prospects, two votes on people who I think will drive the chops over on the loser bracket side in a town favorable way, and two votes on just memeing.

This is way too logical for town.

It's not tho. Also Tim is like super townie both D1 and N1 so this post doesn't age well at all. I don't think Tim is ever partners with Made.
Does Falcon ever interact with Made?

I've thought a little bit about strategy. I think I'd be best suited in sitting in the loser's bracket and letting ya'll funnel your suspects to me.

That said, I'm surprised so many of you took my vote(s) seriously.

It's not your vote per se, it's the flimsy reasoning for why. You could've used the "don't vote, see results", it feels like you used that as an excuse for putting out votes.

More marmot shade?

Voting in the poll so I can see what's going on.

I've thought a little bit about strategy. I think I'd be best suited in sitting in the loser's bracket and letting ya'll funnel your suspects to me.

That said, I'm surprised so many of you took my vote(s) seriously.

It's not your vote per se, it's the flimsy reasoning for why. You could've used the "don't vote, see results", it feels like you used that as an excuse for putting out votes.

I voted the half of the poll that had my name in it, the names around me are just collateral damage.

Yeah, but see you didn't have to vote to "see what's going on", and now you say you voted half the poll with your name in it.


Mr Marmot, are you in fact a wolf?

At least this post asks a real question.
What this sequence looks like to me is someone who's looking for a reason to push, not someone making a legit push.

Also, this poll will have 128 votes by the time the day is over. I don't see how you can't hide ur votes here as scum. Multivariable wagonomics sounds disgusting

I plan to put four of my votes on people I think have really good wolf prospects, two votes on people who I think will drive the chops over on the loser bracket side in a town favorable way, and two votes on just memeing.

Do you plan to explain them, or leave it to the reader to guess which one's which?

I plan on explaining them after the fact. The ones that land on people who eventually flip wolf will have been the serious ones.

How do you know if any of them will land on wolves?

I'm sorry, what? No, bad post, stop it

Good evening. I see we have some activity. Will start reading in an hour.

So many wallies. I'll catch up now.

I'm always a lil sus of folks who constantly update that they are catching up on things. Some of these "wallies" belong to you BTW

Poison was town

[hollowkatt]

What did I miss?

playing the game

Shit, can't argue with that.

Straight up I think you're kinda wolfy. Where do you think wolves are?

[falcon45ca]

What did I miss?

playing the game

Shit, can't argue with that.

Straight up I think you're kinda wolfy. Where do you think wolves are?

Only kinda wolfy? Why don't you find me full on wolfy?


I don't know where the wolves are. Hold on, lemme check

[falcon45ca]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

[hollowkatt]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

Given that I've provided reads and reasoning on G-Man, Marmot, and Moghedien that leaves you, kyle, and wigly to dig into. Has nothing to do with "omg wigly has posts to read" and everything with "I need to dig into these three b/c I don't have reads on them".
Disingenuous much?

[falcon45ca]

Kyle's ISO is not what I'd call towny

[DrWilgy]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

I'm as shallow as a kiddie pool in August that hasn't been maintained in 3 years due to the ever present looming economic disaster that awaits us all!

[falcon45ca]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

Given that I've provided reads and reasoning on G-Man, Marmot, and Moghedien that leaves you, kyle, and wigly to dig into. Has nothing to do with "omg wigly has posts to read" and everything with "I need to dig into these three b/c I don't have reads on them".
Disingenuous much?

This is towny

[DrWilgy]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

Given that I've provided reads and reasoning on G-Man, Marmot, and Moghedien that leaves you, kyle, and wigly to dig into. Has nothing to do with "omg wigly has posts to read" and everything with "I need to dig into these three b/c I don't have reads on them".
Disingenuous much?

This is towny

This is fear. Get'em guys.

[falcon45ca]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

I'm as shallow as a kiddie pool in August that hasn't been maintained in 3 years due to the ever present looming economic disaster that awaits us all!

Splash pools are very hard to maintain, and the leading cause of accidental spider drownings in the Colorado area according to a reddit thread I started

[falcon45ca]

HK has some towny posts, but I did find it strange that he wants to dig deep into Wilgy today. The guy has 2 posts, what's there to dig into?

Given that I've provided reads and reasoning on G-Man, Marmot, and Moghedien that leaves you, kyle, and wigly to dig into. Has nothing to do with "omg wigly has posts to read" and everything with "I need to dig into these three b/c I don't have reads on them".
Disingenuous much?

This is towny

This is fear. Get'em guys.

The only thing I'm afraid of is my lunch being late today