Double Elimination Mafia town win

[hollowkatt]

@MacDougall dies and flips town
@Gavial dies and flips town
@Made dies and flips...mafia!
@Poison dies and flips town

Long Con flips town.

D2 will end April 26 at 7pm EDT. Three people must be sent to the losers bracket, and you will have three votes apiece.

PEOPLE WHO CAN POST:
@Kylemii
@Marmot
@falcon45ca
@G-Man
@DrWilgy
@Moghedien
@hollowkatt


People who CANNOT post:
@Alison
@Timsup2nothin
@TonyStarkPrime
@DaisyCloud

Your postcaps are these plus 100:

[Marmot]

kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

I see that you kinda already talked about this here, but why didn't you vote Made? Made did ask to be sent to the LB.

[Marmot]

kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

I see that you kinda already talked about this here, but why didn't you vote Made? Made did ask to be sent to the LB.

This is for @Kylemii

[hollowkatt]

I kinda like the idea of putting kyle at 2 and everyone else at 1 and seeing what happens

it's a really bad idea but it's exciting and I do appreciate that.

real talk: Do you think you get chopped over TSP? How about over Daisy? Tim?
Like if you and I go down it'll be me, you, tim, daisy, tsp, and g-man down there.

I mean I hope to get chopped alongside those 2 of those people.

the problem isn't anything to do with that suspicion it's that I've not really done anything to remove myself from the PoE, if we make it to the final 5 with 2 mafia alive, if even one town person thinks I'm mafia and votes as such then that's just game over, right? and despite there being only a thin case against me, there's not much of a case for me either. I can't really point to anything that I've done that I could only do as town because I've basically only been a cell phone boy for this entire game up until now, and also I guess, including now.

sure, but can you tonally be town for 3 days while not putting a foot wrong? because that's what I see you have going for yourself.

[Marmot]

Kyle, when you say things like that, I both don't want to send you down and get paranoid you're WIFOMing me lol

Stop it!!!

[Kylemii]

I kinda like the idea of putting kyle at 2 and everyone else at 1 and seeing what happens

it's a really bad idea but it's exciting and I do appreciate that.

real talk: Do you think you get chopped over TSP? How about over Daisy? Tim?
Like if you and I go down it'll be me, you, tim, daisy, tsp, and g-man down there.

I mean I hope to get chopped alongside those 2 of those people.

the problem isn't anything to do with that suspicion it's that I've not really done anything to remove myself from the PoE, if we make it to the final 5 with 2 mafia alive, if even one town person thinks I'm mafia and votes as such then that's just game over, right? and despite there being only a thin case against me, there's not much of a case for me either. I can't really point to anything that I've done that I could only do as town because I've basically only been a cell phone boy for this entire game up until now, and also I guess, including now.

sure, but can you tonally be town for 3 days while not putting a foot wrong? because that's what I see you have going for yourself.

I'm always tonally town

kyle voting for everyone in the top eight not named made is astounding

I see that you kinda already talked about this here, but why didn't you vote Made? Made did ask to be sent to the LB.

This is for @Kylemii

I don't think he caught my attention in any meaningful way. Before I voted pragmatically to save myself I was voting for people who I thought would be easier to read and solve if they got sent down to the tiger pits to fight it out. All made had going for/against him was that he asked to be sent which wasn't unique to him.

[Kylemii]

Kyle, when you say things like that, I both don't want to send you down and get paranoid you're WIFOMing me lol

Stop it!!!

I have to have to have to HAVE to start conserving my posts, TSP is going to be mad that I called his case garbage so I'm probably going to have to save some posts for that.

I just want to share my concern that this may be an exaggerated pantomime by marmot

[Kylemii]

or it could just be that marmot...... is in love with me :0

[Marmot]

Some more observations on Night 2

Spoiler: show

Hello. This is where I belong.

Nooooo Wilgy! You're not a loser

I'm inclined to use my other two votes to just flip the slankers (Wilgy/TSP) since I have good feelings to various degrees about everyone else but Tim is the only one I feel strongly about.

Preemptively going for slankers? Sweet!
[VOTE: Alison] aubergine

Towntell if you don't want to get voted.

I have a request Alison.

With three chops it is almost certain that this day ends with you in the ground. If you are town a legacy of just OMGUSing everyone who votes you is not going to be any help for solving the game, because there is a very good chance, IMO, that literally every player is going to vote you here. For valid reasons.

So if you are town please just drop the "voting me, not honoring my reads, outed wolf" bit and be useful.

Here's a legacy for you.

EXECUTE TIM

When you die at the end of the day if you flip town I will certainly never make it to end game and I'm fine with that...but if you are gonna flip town you should be EXTREMELY interested in taking a wolf with you. If you are right about me or not is irrelevant for now...pick someone else to go with you...I will do my best to send them along.

I don't care for this post from tim, mainly the "if you're town I'm never making it to endgame". But I also can't blame him, I felt confident that Alison was a hit.

In general, I still like tim's contribution in getting Made yeeted on Day 1, but I could be giving him too much credit.

Nope. The exact same argument holds if either Alison or I are woofin'...as always, neither of us can be trusted on anything but production of pelts. I think iget a little credit for Made, and Alison gets none. So I think Alison goes in today's batch and unless I am doing better than "a little credit for Made's pelt" then I have to go tomorrow. This is just the way things work out for people with high end wolf reps.

I'm really confused by this post. I've seen tim complain in other games (as a wolf, for that matter) about being excluded from the towncore for not being towncore material, but here he's complaining about the high standard he's held to catch wolves, and to be yeeted for failing.

I guess he's not complaining so much as "accepting fate", although he's the one who's prescribing his own fate lol


Reading tim's posts during the night though, he spends most of his energy trying to get Alison yeeted, which in a day where 3 yeets are happening, feels like wasted energy.

With Alison dead, hopefully @Timsup2nothin is either flipped, or is able to spread his energy out or both.

alison said something yesterday about voting out the slanker tsp and I thought to myself "im not slanking and then clsoed the thread and walked away"

LOL

alison and tim are probably not both wolves and should not both be chopped in the same day if we can help it

I disagree on this idea, if you think that there's a wolf between two players, I think yeeting both of them makes more sense in this setup.

kinda still think daisy is a wolf tbh

@TonyStarkPrime can you explain this one tonight?

send HK and Kyle down tomorrow

If TSP's a wolf, then either his teammate is already in the LB, or possible Mog.

HK is a slight possibility, but I don't think TSP tries this hard to bury his teammate given TSP's status in the game.

sir you have 73 posts left

really? that is super cool

This interaction kinda went pffffftttttt

[hollowkatt]

kinda want to say "nobody vote marmot" and then "marmot use all your posts doing what you just did" for those of us who are going to be playing on

[Marmot]

I didn't have much to say about G-Man

[hollowkatt]

me neither other than if he's a wolf the give away is that he's done a lot of spreadsheet parsing and not a lot of "finding alignments"

[Marmot]

I bet you want to hear the rest of that though.

[hollowkatt]

I bet you want to hear the rest of that though.

I'm all ears

[Marmot]

I hit submit on accident as I started talking.


I didn't have much to say about G-Man. I nodded my head reading through his larger posts, and appreciated his compilation of vote records. The downside: I think TSP was the only one to do anything with it, and he's suspect #1 right now.

[Marmot]

kinda want to say "nobody vote marmot" and then "marmot use all your posts doing what you just did" for those of us who are going to be playing on

I don't have any more time, I've gotta go do some stuff in the yard.

[Marmot]

[VOTE: Unvote] aubergine

[Marmot]

[VOTE: Tim] aubergine

[hollowkatt]

I'm basically putting all my trust in MarMogh here so plx if you're wolves don't be wolves ok

[Kylemii]

[VOTE: marmot] aubergine

[NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME]

Kyle and HK move to the loser's bracket.

Three people must be eliminated, and you have until April 29, 7pm EDT to do so. You have three votes apiece.

PEOPLE WHO CAN POST

@DaisyCloud
@G-Man
@hollowkatt
@Kylemii
@Timsup2nothin
@TonyStarkPrime

People who CANNOT post:

@Marmot
@Moghedien

[Timsup2nothin]

A'ight, I have thought about this a lot.

I'm gonna lay out what I think happened, what I think town can and should do to win the game, and then I'm probably just gonna dip, because my nature is to fight for my life and this is that one bad situation where that is the wrong thing to do. So here we go.

I think on day one we were all sort of lackadaisical about figuring out the implications of the setup, and we blundered into sending Made to the bracket. On N1 we killed him. Yay us. But I think that was the only wolf we really had a shot at. It would have been way too easy to save Made, between Made's uncast votes and the votes of another wolf.eight people throwing votes all over the place? Who would know? So we got the wolf we had available.

Day two the upper bracket really sort of luffed it. They sent down three people without really any consideration for whether they were wolves. Volunteers to kill Alison. Slankers that just needed to die before LYLO. Easy enough to just stay in the upper bracket and watch seven town choose meaningless kills.

The good news is that night two we did resolve Alison, who was a mischop waiting to happen, and eliminate the two slankers.

So here is how town wins. @TonyStarkPrime @DaisyCloud @G-Man, kill me and the two new arrivals. That gets you to F5 (unless it just wins). Kill the upper bracket people, one after the other.

Win game.

See you in post game.

[hollowkatt]

A'ight, I have thought about this a lot.

I'm gonna lay out what I think happened, what I think town can and should do to win the game, and then I'm probably just gonna dip, because my nature is to fight for my life and this is that one bad situation where that is the wrong thing to do. So here we go.

I think on day one we were all sort of lackadaisical about figuring out the implications of the setup, and we blundered into sending Made to the bracket. On N1 we killed him. Yay us. But I think that was the only wolf we really had a shot at. It would have been way too easy to save Made, between Made's uncast votes and the votes of another wolf.eight people throwing votes all over the place? Who would know? So we got the wolf we had available.

Day two the upper bracket really sort of luffed it. They sent down three people without really any consideration for whether they were wolves. Volunteers to kill Alison. Slankers that just needed to die before LYLO. Easy enough to just stay in the upper bracket and watch seven town choose meaningless kills.

The good news is that night two we did resolve Alison, who was a mischop waiting to happen, and eliminate the two slankers.

So here is how town wins. @TonyStarkPrime @DaisyCloud @G-Man, kill me and the two new arrivals. That gets you to F5 (unless it just wins). Kill the upper bracket people, one after the other.

Win game.

See you in post game.

First of all we're not fucking doing this
second of all, we're killing at minimum TSP today. We're also killing one of Kyle/Tim today. The third person we're killing is negotiable.

Here's the thing, Tim has given away with this post that he's wolfing. He hasn't dropped any case on me, no suspicion, nothing. So either he's having the most massive change of heart I've ever seen him have OR he's just trying to open wolf his way to victory.

I'm NOT dying today, sorry. If Tim thought I was really a wolf he'd have spent posts yesterday talking about me being a wolf, how if I'm sent down I need to be turbo killed, and leaving all sorts of that kind of thing in his legacy. He didn't.
Additionally he doesn't have much of anything that I can see regarding Kyle.

So today I come to you with open arms, open hearts, and open eyes and tell you Tim and Tony Must Die
Tim should have been killed with Alison yesterday. Alison was never a mischop waiting to happen. Alison was actively wolf read by Tim FOR TWO FORKING DAYS people. Don't let him change the narrative now.

He hard wolf read her in the WB D1. He hard wolf read her in LB even when Mac changed his mind. He hasn't analyzed Made for spew, he hasn't done anything but lead town around by the nose.

At least do me the courtesy of wolf casing me Tim before you try to fork me, ok?

[hollowkatt]

also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

[Timsup2nothin]

also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

[hollowkatt]

also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

[hollowkatt]

What clears Daisy for you Tim?

I think both of us are town reading G-Man, yeah? But we do need to have a talk about him as well.

[G-Man]

Somehow we managed to leave the only other two players who voted for Made on Day 1 in the WB. We can't sort a possible Made-bussing out until endgame. Oof.

Tim and Daisy voted for Made N1. I can't find a vote tag in Tim's ISO, and he only had a few short interactions with Made a few hours before the vote. Daisy didn't mention Made much during Night 1, but she ended up voting for him. He made it into her POE by virtue of civ-reading other people. After she checked Made's ISO, she was more comfortable voting there because his posts seemed (correctly) to be fluff. Of the two who voted for Made N1, I civ-read Daisy more.


Gavial was pretty sensible and correct about a number of things. Here's what he thought of the original WB:

Also if I had to take a gut gamble and if we assume scum is playing well and 2 scum consist within the Winner’s bracket.
Here’s where I’m at:
Winners Bracket

Marmot - Def Town
Kyle - Prob Town
Hollow - Gut Scum
G-Man - Prob Town
Wilgy - Null Slight Leany Villager
Mog - Gut Scum
Falcon - Def Town

Vote data time! I made myself green, because I know I'm town and you have to have a tin foil IV drip to think otherwise.

DAY 1 VOTES:

ALISON (11): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

MACDOUGALL (10): Alison, G-Man, Gavial, Kyle, Lon Con, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

TIM (7): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Moghedien

DAISY (6): Alison, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Moghedien, Tony

GAVIAL (6): Daisy, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Moghedien

MADE (6): G-Man, Gavial, Long Con, MacDougall, Marmot, Moghedien

POISON (6): G-Man, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Tony

TONY (6): hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Marmot, Mohegdien

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KYLE (5): G-Man, Gavial, MacDougall, Marmot, Tony

MARMOT (5): hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Made, Marmot

FALCON (4): G-Man, Long Con, MacDougall, Tony

G-MAN (4): G-Man, Gavial, Mohegdien, Tony

WILGY (4): Gavial, hollowkat, Marmot, Tony

MOHEGDIEN (3): Daisy, G-Man, Long Con

HOLLOWKAT (2): Daisy, G-Man

LONG CON (2): MacDougall, Tony




*********************************************************************************************



NIGHT 1 VOTES:

MACDOUGALL (5): Daisy, Gavial, Made, Poison, Tim

GAVIAL (4): MacDougall, Poison, Tim, Tony

MADE (4): Daisy, MacDougall, Poison, Tim

POISON* (3): Gavial, MacDougall, Tony

--------------------------------------------

ALISON (3): Daisy, Gavial, Tim

TIM (3): Alison, Gavial, MacDougall

TONY (2): Daisy, Poison

DAISY (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 2 VOTES:

G-MAN (5): Falcon, G-Man, Kyle, Marmot, Wilgy

FALCON (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Wilgy

WILGY (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Marmot

--------------------------------------------

KYLE (2): Falcon, Wilgy

MOGHEDIEN (1): Falcon

HOLLOWKAT (0)

MARMOT (0)




*********************************************************************************************


NIGHT 2 VOTES:

ALISON (5): Daisy, Falcon, G-Man, Tim, Tony

FALCON (5): Daisy, G-Man, Tim, Tony, Wilgy

WILGY (3): Falcon, Tim, Tony

--------------------------------------------

TONY (2): G-Man, Wilgy

DAISY (1): Falcon

TIM (1): Wilgy

G-MAN (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 3 VOTES:

KYLE (3): hollowkat, Kyle, Moghedien

HOLLOWKAT (2): hollowkat, Moghedien

--------------------------------------------

MARMOT (1): Kyle

MOGHEDIEN (0)


@Timsup2nothin- Why did you only cast 2 of your allotted 8 votes on Day 1?

@DaisyCloud- What do you think of HK and Moghedien (your only D1 votes remaining) at this stage of the game?

HK, Kyle, and Moghedien have their names all over the D1 LB folks. In fact, HK and Kyle voted similarly 7 of 8 times. Mog & Kyle voted similarly 6 of 8. Mog & HK only 5 of 8. I need to go back through their ISOs and look at their reasons for those D1 votes. At first glance, more information can be gleaned from chopping WB folks, but we have to play chicken with LYLO to actually get all the info, which could lose us the game.

Based on the fact that Tim only voted 2/8 D1, Tony's 7 votes include 4 on confirmed town and 1 on me, plus one on Daisy & Kyle, means we won't learn a whole lot from their chops. Daisy voted 3/8- one for a confirmed civ, and two who were low on most folks' radars- one we can chop today, and one that cant. Not much to learn about Daisy there either.

I had high hopes for my colorful vote scrutiny, but it looks like I was being mostly a derp on that front. If we chop a baddie today, we might be able to squeeze something out of the vote data, but it won't be as bountiful as I had hoped.

[Timsup2nothin]

also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

You are here to kill me. What more is there to say?

And by save I don't mean some last second vote shenanigans...I mean TSP could easily have set it up so that Made wasn't in the chops N1...anyone could have. We could have and should have pushed Alison over then. Made could have voted her as a self pres. If there was another wolf around, ez pz Made survives. There was just no other wolf around.

So here's the thing...I have no case on you. I have a POE of four with two wolves in it and town has five kills. Hopefully me and my POE. Hopefully I got it right. <shrug>

[hollowkatt]

also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

You are here to kill me. What more is there to say?

And by save I don't mean some last second vote shenanigans...I mean TSP could easily have set it up so that Made wasn't in the chops N1...anyone could have. We could have and should have pushed Alison over then. Made could have voted her as a self pres. If there was another wolf around, ez pz Made survives. There was just no other wolf around.

So here's the thing...I have no case on you. I have a POE of four with two wolves in it and town has five kills. Hopefully me and my POE. Hopefully I got it right. <shrug>

How am I in your POE though, that's what I'm trying to get at.
I understand we can only kill players in this bracket. So by all technicalities this bracket is the POE BUT what puts Me in there specifically for you?
What makes me more likely wolf than anyone else here who's not you?

[G-Man]

@Moghedien what's the most townie thing you've done?

I'm not sure exactly how you would qualify this, but I helped send Made to the Losers Bracket. That's more than you or Kyle can say.

I'm not accusing you of being a wolf, I'm trying to understand how we've gotten ourselves into this situation. Asking someone what's the most townie thing they've done can catch wolves out b/c they're not really expecting it and therefore don't have an answer prepared.
I think you're town, I think Marmot is town. Kyle I'm not sold on.
I thought Tim was town up till seeing the flips today, now I'm not sure about that read at all.

I also don't think TSP is town.

I like G-Man for town for sure, and think that it's likely that Daisy is town too.

In list form:

Townies:
HK
Mogh
Marmot
Daisy
G-Man

Not Townies
Tim
Kyle
TSP

I worry if I'm misclearing Daisy the most, then you, then marmot, then g-man.
I worry about Daisy b/c I have a hard time separating out what's legit in her posts and what's native AtE. Not saying she weaponizes AtE but that it's kind of an inherent part of her play style.
I worry that I've miscleared you because while I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you did help send Made to LB that isn't clearing in and of itself except that if you DID send Made down you had help sending him and even then you don't know they actually chop him so yeah, no, you're good.

If I'm misclearing Marmot it's entirely on feels and melding and that's my bad then. What do you think of Marmot?

G-Man I have an incredibly hard time buying as a wolf. he's just been right on things

Seeing that pink part caught me off my guard today. That second sentence is pretty important to me. If you're a civvie, I will be amused, because you don't know how much I struggle to form reads on people yet because this is our first game together. If you are a baddie, that sentence reads to me like you're rubbing my face in the fact that I haven't been right about much at all even though I've shown my civvie nature through all the other wonky effort I've thrown out there.

If it's the former, LOL. If it's the latter, I won't forget it.

[hollowkatt]

@G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

[hollowkatt]

@Moghedien what's the most townie thing you've done?

I'm not sure exactly how you would qualify this, but I helped send Made to the Losers Bracket. That's more than you or Kyle can say.

I'm not accusing you of being a wolf, I'm trying to understand how we've gotten ourselves into this situation. Asking someone what's the most townie thing they've done can catch wolves out b/c they're not really expecting it and therefore don't have an answer prepared.
I think you're town, I think Marmot is town. Kyle I'm not sold on.
I thought Tim was town up till seeing the flips today, now I'm not sure about that read at all.

I also don't think TSP is town.

I like G-Man for town for sure, and think that it's likely that Daisy is town too.

In list form:

Townies:
HK
Mogh
Marmot
Daisy
G-Man

Not Townies
Tim
Kyle
TSP

I worry if I'm misclearing Daisy the most, then you, then marmot, then g-man.
I worry about Daisy b/c I have a hard time separating out what's legit in her posts and what's native AtE. Not saying she weaponizes AtE but that it's kind of an inherent part of her play style.
I worry that I've miscleared you because while I agree with a lot of what you're saying and you did help send Made to LB that isn't clearing in and of itself except that if you DID send Made down you had help sending him and even then you don't know they actually chop him so yeah, no, you're good.

If I'm misclearing Marmot it's entirely on feels and melding and that's my bad then. What do you think of Marmot?

G-Man I have an incredibly hard time buying as a wolf. he's just been right on things

Seeing that pink part caught me off my guard today. That second sentence is pretty important to me. If you're a civvie, I will be amused, because you don't know how much I struggle to form reads on people yet because this is our first game together. If you are a baddie, that sentence reads to me like you're rubbing my face in the fact that I haven't been right about much at all even though I've shown my civvie nature through all the other wonky effort I've thrown out there.

If it's the former, LOL. If it's the latter, I won't forget it.

I get that, sure. Here's some of the posts of yours that I've liked and why I think you've been right on things.

Spoiler: show

Scoring the thread to date gets me here:

Alison: xxxx+x
Daisy: xx+++
Falcon:
Gavial: x+
Hollowkat: xx++x
Moghedien: x+
Poison: x
Tim: +++++++++

G-Man:
Kylemii: xx
Long Con: x
Mac: x+
Made: +
Marmot: x+
Tony: x
Wilgy:

An x is bad and a + is good.

I do not trust Alison one bit in the LB. Perhaps I will learn to gloss over Alison’s bravado in time like I have for Mac, but I don’t trust anyone who talks all high and mighty of their skills. No one is a mafia god.

I am man-crushing all over Tim like I used to for Sloonei. We are on the same wavelength. We have to unlearn our mafia games because this is barely mafia at this stage. If we try to approach it the same way, we’ll get rolled.

I still think Tim can be mafia as well as yourself.

You have Hollow 3 to 2.
Can you explain that more in depths?

Sorry, I can’t without ISO links in the OP. I’m also phone posting, which is hard enough for a geezer like me.

Generally, I gave HK some + love over concerns about controlling the game. I like their wariness of those who want to go to the LB and control the eliminations. For this reason, I’d like them in the LB. We should have people there who don’t want to be there. Squirmers will squirm, and those who aren’t interested in the power will be more deliberative in their approach.

I really like the analysis you drop here with regards to people being in LB and the kinds of people that should be sent down. I think this is an accurate assessment of how it should be played.

Send me to the LB because I am not a skilled scum-hunter. If I get eliminated, you won’t be losing much. I am committed to intentional thinking and deliberation, however, which will be needed Night 1. We meed scum hunters in the WB to send in a new crop of suspects. I feel like I am more likely to be a disservice in the WB in that regard.

I intentionally did not put Alison in the LB with my votes for two reasons-

1) I’m leery of trusting such a strong reaction from myself given my poor play in the past.

2) Without Alison in the same bracket, I trust Mac (if civvie) to sniff out a baddie given the right amount of time.

I like this post for similar reasons. One thing I'd like to see more of is analysis derived from your vote data. That's the biggest thing that bothers me about you is you have crunched data but you haven't done much with it.

Searching through Made's ISO I find the following "reads":

Day 1:
Tim = sus
Daisy = prob town

Votes for Alison (because scary), Tim (because making sense), Marmot (because of entry votes), and TSP (because of arbitrary votes). Later votes Mac (because ??)


Night 1:
Mac = sus
Alison = worth keeping around
Daisy = loltown
Gavial = sus
Tim = sus
TSP = ?


Also a fair amount of complementary chatter toward Alison. This makes me wonder a lot, because it could go either way. Made could have been complementing Alison in order to draw imaginary dots between them if she is civvie, or Made could have been complimenting teammate Alison to the extent that he did to make us think it's unlikely that he would do such a thing.

Made was also somewhat noncommittal about Tony. I'll have to check Tony's ISO to see if there's anything notable from the other direction.

We also have Made dropping a sus read on Tim, and an loltown read on Daisy. This is the point where tinfoil starts to warp my brain, so I'm going to bed.

I hope we can get sufficient chatter in this thread to work out our thoughts on the LB remnant and which three of us should join them. I'll do what I can, but I will be phone-posting from work, and I have to mow the lawn tomorrow night, which will cut very close to the deadline.

It sure would have been nice for the LB folks to have actually shared opinions on us WB folks. Three dead LB civvies could have given us something to start with in evaluating each other. But no. This is why we can't have nice things.

This post reads as town to me because of the concerns of lack of information/legacy/reads that the LB dead folk didn't provide AND your thoughts about what Made was thinking/doing.
You were right on Alison, I think you're right on Daisy. Mac you were wrong, same with Gavial BUT I can understand how you got to those reads, they make sense even with hindsight.

@G-Man @Marmot do you two still want to go to the Loser’s Bracket?

Sort of. The way I see it, we should send one person that we trust over to the LB, along with two people we’re sus about. We need to reinforce whatever towncore we believe we have in there. For me, that means sending backup for Tim and (to a lesser extent) Daisy. If I’m determined to be that best backup, send me on over. If we feel someone else is better suited to find one or two baddies in the next LB chop, then I will respect that call as well.

Given who remains in the LB, I don’t see N2 being a case if them ganging up on whomever we send over today. I think there are some rational minds in there who will think our decisions through. The good news is that the baddies are not in a position to control the LB with only two members remaining. If we end up with both of them in the LB, it’s 5v2. The worst-case scenario is that both baddies are left in the WB after today. That would give them almost complete control of the game.

As for the WB, I feel confident about HK. I’m not as ready to plant my flag in support of Marmot yet, but I lean town for his willingness to dig in and contribute. This is such a treacherous setup in that it’s a short enough game for the baddies to find both coasting and strong-arming as viable paths to victory. I used the coast option in Corrupt?!- another unconventional game setup- to maximum effect. Wilgy was my teammate then, so I know that is in his wheelhouse. He’s not one to dive in and go post crazy very often either, so he gets an unfortunate reputation of being the kind of low-key player that has to be ‘dealt with’ at some point.

Sending Wilgy to the LB is tricky. If we’re sending him there just to be slaughtered, that’s one thing, but if he’s a civvie, there’s the risk of him low- or no-posting, costing the LB civs a civvie voice and potentially civvie votes. I’m trying not to overthink that one too much because this game moves too quickly to allow for overthinking.

What do we think of Mac’s assertion that Falcon is derp-cleared because of the v-town vs town role card when someone else said they were v-town? Falcon made no impression on me whatsoever D1.

I need to read Kyle’s ISO. I had him at -2 on my score thingy, so a review is needed there.

Moghedien had a + and an x, making them a net null at the end of the day. No experience with them, so I have no basis or foundation to build from. @hollowkat- what are you seeing in Moghedien that leaves you feeling good?

Also, the reason I was quiet is that I am EST. I was sleeping, showering, eating breakfast, and starting my workday at the office. I’ll check back over lunch, but the 24-hour day kneecaps my ability to participate too much more today. I will try to sneak it in as best I can.

Here I like you asking me why I read Mogh the way I do. I also agree with your "score" on kyle.
Tell me though, what came of that score read? Do you think Kyle is a wolf?

[Kylemii]

HK, can i ask why you think that Tim and i can't be wolves together or at least shouldn't be yote together? this is in regards to your statement that today should be Tony + Me or Tim + a third indeterminate person.

[hollowkatt]

HK, can i ask why you think that Tim and i can't be wolves together or at least shouldn't be yote together? this is in regards to your statement that today should be Tony + Me or Tim + a third indeterminate person.

First of all, Riffing off of this post

i think the best case Send is Marmot+HK, i think the more realistic Send is Me+HK/Marmot.

that said, Mog acting like it's our responsibility to listen to what the people in the other bracket wants so the decision is out of our hands pings my meter off the charts.

Second of all, I said TSP and one of Tim/Kyle, with the third person being negotiable. I'm absolutely fine with it being TSP/Tim/You today that die.

I never said you and Tim couldn't be wolves together

[Kylemii]

ah i see

[hollowkatt]

Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

[G-Man]

@G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

Simply put, we have to assume there are two baddies here among the six of us. That means the POE starts at five, because I'm not mafia. After reading Daisy's progression on Made, I feel that I can remove her from the POE. That leaves Tim as the only possible busser of Made on Night 1 who also voted to ensure the biggest death-tunnel threats were on or near the chopping block; or Tony was the teammate who didn't use all his votes, avoided his partner, and opted to not break the tie for Chop #4 in the poll.

If it's Tim AND Tony, then sacrificing one of their own helps them avoid additional scrutiny and prevents the WB folks from barging in N2 with the goal to chop only LB folks. Throw a bone to the civvies because you can keep Alison around as a distraction for another night and an easy mis-chop post-Mac-flip.

I need to re-read Kyle's ISO in light of all the civvie flips. I was meh on him D1, and I would have probably advocated for him coming down for N2 instead of Wilgy but I didn't have time and I don't know if I could have persuaded enough people. Moghedien didn't vote at all D2, which makes them more sus in my book than Marmot, even though I know that Marmot can be a sneaky evil mountain rat. Gun-to-head, I'm content chopping Kyle based on outdated information.

HK- we mind-melded a little bit earlier in the game when it came to strategy and that clouded my perception of you through D2 and part of D3. I want to believe you are a civvie, but I have to be willing to waffle on you now just as I've come to waffle on Tim. I understand your frustration about the data crunching. Sadly, I have a tendency to start things and fail to se them through per my initial vision. I'm big on ideas but I struggle in the execution of those ideas.

So yeah, I'll be spending some time tomorrow ISOing the four of you. Today, I'm content to lose to Daisy is she's snookered me. If I can find the time, I'm going to work up scenarios involving pairings, assuming we have both remaining baddies in the LB right now. Taking me and Daisy out of the equation, that means wrapping my head around teams consisting of:

Made-HK-Kyle
Made-HK-Tim
Made-HK-Tony
Made-Kyle-Tim
Made-Kyle-Tony
Made-Tim-Tony

For now though, it's 11:00 pm for me, and I'm an old man trapped in the body of a late-30-something. Good night.

[Timsup2nothin]

also @Timsup2nothin vote me you wanker

If TSP was a wolf he could have saved Made.

And I had to wait for the poll to open.

Why would TSP the wolf save Made? It outs him as wolf to do so, and if not outs at the very least makes him a very juicy chop target the next "night", yeah?
TSP NOT saving Made here is the right play for TSP if he is a wolf.

But talk to me more about me, because you and I both know that's exactly why I'm here

You are here to kill me. What more is there to say?

And by save I don't mean some last second vote shenanigans...I mean TSP could easily have set it up so that Made wasn't in the chops N1...anyone could have. We could have and should have pushed Alison over then. Made could have voted her as a self pres. If there was another wolf around, ez pz Made survives. There was just no other wolf around.

So here's the thing...I have no case on you. I have a POE of four with two wolves in it and town has five kills. Hopefully me and my POE. Hopefully I got it right. <shrug>

How am I in your POE though, that's what I'm trying to get at.
I understand we can only kill players in this bracket. So by all technicalities this bracket is the POE BUT what puts Me in there specifically for you?
What makes me more likely wolf than anyone else here who's not you?

Because I am convinced that there were no wolves here before you arrived. Maybe there still aren't and it's Mohg and Mormot, but in any event I think town's winning path is to just chop me and the top bracket in whatever order the top bracket presents. You presented first. Well, you and Kyle.

[DaisyCloud]

I have no idea what's even going on. am I allowed to ask here about when nite is even going to end given the fact game was locked a very long time. hours. do we get an extension? sorry idk how to dm/pm to well.

we lost 2hrs and 44mins. do we not get more time?

I don't wanna get modkilled for asking.

[DaisyCloud]

@Timsup2nothin @hollowkatt @G-Man @TonyStarkPrime @Kylemii

hi. we need to talk.

I know im town because the voices in my head had me triple check again and I am town.

odk what the heck happened. how was wilgy and falcon even town. how was Alison town.

no one is not allowed to stop talking.

I have 0 notes btw. deleted them. threw away some stupid scribbles I made on a note pad too.

I recall not liking Kyle. what happened?

I think gman is town.

I'm scared. I thought I used all my votes.

why isn't mog here?

[DaisyCloud]

A'ight, I have thought about this a lot.

I'm gonna lay out what I think happened, what I think town can and should do to win the game, and then I'm probably just gonna dip, because my nature is to fight for my life and this is that one bad situation where that is the wrong thing to do. So here we go.

I think on day one we were all sort of lackadaisical about figuring out the implications of the setup, and we blundered into sending Made to the bracket. On N1 we killed him. Yay us. But I think that was the only wolf we really had a shot at. It would have been way too easy to save Made, between Made's uncast votes and the votes of another wolf.eight people throwing votes all over the place? Who would know? So we got the wolf we had available.

Day two the upper bracket really sort of luffed it. They sent down three people without really any consideration for whether they were wolves. Volunteers to kill Alison. Slankers that just needed to die before LYLO. Easy enough to just stay in the upper bracket and watch seven town choose meaningless kills.

The good news is that night two we did resolve Alison, who was a mischop waiting to happen, and eliminate the two slankers.

So here is how town wins. @TonyStarkPrime @DaisyCloud @G-Man, kill me and the two new arrivals. That gets you to F5 (unless it just wins). Kill the upper bracket people, one after the other.

Win game.

See you in post game.

noo sur. nooo sir!!

u do not get to just drop the mic. you do not get to just bounce. talk

[DaisyCloud]

What clears Daisy for you Tim?

I think both of us are town reading G-Man, yeah? But we do need to have a talk about him as well.

cause I'm stupid. how are you here

[Kylemii]

Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

i lowkey just think it might be marmot and daisy but that's a vibes only read, lemme finish deleting all my animal crossing mail and i'll look things through

[DaisyCloud]

Somehow we managed to leave the only other two players who voted for Made on Day 1 in the WB. We can't sort a possible Made-bussing out until endgame. Oof.

Tim and Daisy voted for Made N1. I can't find a vote tag in Tim's ISO, and he only had a few short interactions with Made a few hours before the vote. Daisy didn't mention Made much during Night 1, but she ended up voting for him. He made it into her POE by virtue of civ-reading other people. After she checked Made's ISO, she was more comfortable voting there because his posts seemed (correctly) to be fluff. Of the two who voted for Made N1, I civ-read Daisy more.


Gavial was pretty sensible and correct about a number of things. Here's what he thought of the original WB:

Also if I had to take a gut gamble and if we assume scum is playing well and 2 scum consist within the Winner’s bracket.
Here’s where I’m at:
Winners Bracket

Marmot - Def Town
Kyle - Prob Town
Hollow - Gut Scum
G-Man - Prob Town
Wilgy - Null Slight Leany Villager
Mog - Gut Scum
Falcon - Def Town

Vote data time! I made myself green, because I know I'm town and you have to have a tin foil IV drip to think otherwise.

DAY 1 VOTES:

ALISON (11): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

MACDOUGALL (10): Alison, G-Man, Gavial, Kyle, Lon Con, Made, Marmot, Moghedien, Poison, Tim

TIM (7): Alison, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Moghedien

DAISY (6): Alison, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Moghedien, Tony

GAVIAL (6): Daisy, hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, MacDougall, Moghedien

MADE (6): G-Man, Gavial, Long Con, MacDougall, Marmot, Moghedien

POISON (6): G-Man, Gavial, hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Tony

TONY (6): hollowkat, Kyle, Long Con, Made, Marmot, Mohegdien

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KYLE (5): G-Man, Gavial, MacDougall, Marmot, Tony

MARMOT (5): hollowkat, Kyle, MacDougall, Made, Marmot

FALCON (4): G-Man, Long Con, MacDougall, Tony

G-MAN (4): G-Man, Gavial, Mohegdien, Tony

WILGY (4): Gavial, hollowkat, Marmot, Tony

MOHEGDIEN (3): Daisy, G-Man, Long Con

HOLLOWKAT (2): Daisy, G-Man

LONG CON (2): MacDougall, Tony




*********************************************************************************************



NIGHT 1 VOTES:

MACDOUGALL (5): Daisy, Gavial, Made, Poison, Tim

GAVIAL (4): MacDougall, Poison, Tim, Tony

MADE (4): Daisy, MacDougall, Poison, Tim

POISON* (3): Gavial, MacDougall, Tony

--------------------------------------------

ALISON (3): Daisy, Gavial, Tim

TIM (3): Alison, Gavial, MacDougall

TONY (2): Daisy, Poison

DAISY (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 2 VOTES:

G-MAN (5): Falcon, G-Man, Kyle, Marmot, Wilgy

FALCON (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Wilgy

WILGY (4): G-Man, hollowkat, Kyle, Marmot

--------------------------------------------

KYLE (2): Falcon, Wilgy

MOGHEDIEN (1): Falcon

HOLLOWKAT (0)

MARMOT (0)




*********************************************************************************************


NIGHT 2 VOTES:

ALISON (5): Daisy, Falcon, G-Man, Tim, Tony

FALCON (5): Daisy, G-Man, Tim, Tony, Wilgy

WILGY (3): Falcon, Tim, Tony

--------------------------------------------

TONY (2): G-Man, Wilgy

DAISY (1): Falcon

TIM (1): Wilgy

G-MAN (0)




*********************************************************************************************


DAY 3 VOTES:

KYLE (3): hollowkat, Kyle, Moghedien

HOLLOWKAT (2): hollowkat, Moghedien

--------------------------------------------

MARMOT (1): Kyle

MOGHEDIEN (0)


@Timsup2nothin- Why did you only cast 2 of your allotted 8 votes on Day 1?

@DaisyCloud- What do you think of HK and Moghedien (your only D1 votes remaining) at this stage of the game?

HK, Kyle, and Moghedien have their names all over the D1 LB folks. In fact, HK and Kyle voted similarly 7 of 8 times. Mog & Kyle voted similarly 6 of 8. Mog & HK only 5 of 8. I need to go back through their ISOs and look at their reasons for those D1 votes. At first glance, more information can be gleaned from chopping WB folks, but we have to play chicken with LYLO to actually get all the info, which could lose us the game.

Based on the fact that Tim only voted 2/8 D1, Tony's 7 votes include 4 on confirmed town and 1 on me, plus one on Daisy & Kyle, means we won't learn a whole lot from their chops. Daisy voted 3/8- one for a confirmed civ, and two who were low on most folks' radars- one we can chop today, and one that cant. Not much to learn about Daisy there either.

I had high hopes for my colorful vote scrutiny, but it looks like I was being mostly a derp on that front. If we chop a baddie today, we might be able to squeeze something out of the vote data, but it won't be as bountiful as I had hoped.

this is what happened but this isn't what happened and so idk what happened and mog should be here not hk. I don't get it. look the flips got me messed up.

I'm sick of people in bracket 2 just rant/make a bossy post, vote, then leave.

I can't solve a game like this.

the voting is stupid and mafia has it rigged to their favor.


Alison didn't care to solve nor help. she flipped town. I thought she took her vote off Mac to throw people off.. it did just not what I think she meant. then she yelled at tim then left after voting him. is she right about tim? idk I have 0 clue how im supposed to get any info or associations with her or whatever.


is tim mafia? why is he acting like alison.


I'm sorry I missed my last vote. I'm stupid.

I like hk, idk I haven't double checked. what do I even know anymore.

what is your take on mog? Marmot?

I pray should have put your post in spoilers but I appreciate the effort so much.

[DaisyCloud]

Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

i lowkey just think it might be marmot and daisy but that's a vibes only read, lemme finish deleting all my animal crossing mail and i'll look things through

omgus

[DaisyCloud]

Who do you think is wolfing here Kyle and why?

i lowkey just think it might be marmot and daisy but that's a vibes only read, lemme finish deleting all my animal crossing mail and i'll look things through

did you read any of my iso? do you really think I bussed Made? me

you can't be serious.

[DaisyCloud]

it's like Kyle wants me to vote him.

[hollowkatt]

@G-Man What does your reading of the thread tell you about where/who wolves are? Like put aside the vote data for a hot second and lets just talk about reads and how you're feeling about things.
We've got about 24 hours or so to figure this out and I'd like to get as much data and information into teh thread as I can.

@Timsup2nothin did you see my post about the players in the WB and why I read them the way I do? Do you have any disagreements or issues with that?

Simply put, we have to assume there are two baddies here among the six of us. That means the POE starts at five, because I'm not mafia. After reading Daisy's progression on Made, I feel that I can remove her from the POE. That leaves Tim as the only possible busser of Made on Night 1 who also voted to ensure the biggest death-tunnel threats were on or near the chopping block; or Tony was the teammate who didn't use all his votes, avoided his partner, and opted to not break the tie for Chop #4 in the poll.

If it's Tim AND Tony, then sacrificing one of their own helps them avoid additional scrutiny and prevents the WB folks from barging in N2 with the goal to chop only LB folks. Throw a bone to the civvies because you can keep Alison around as a distraction for another night and an easy mis-chop post-Mac-flip.

I need to re-read Kyle's ISO in light of all the civvie flips. I was meh on him D1, and I would have probably advocated for him coming down for N2 instead of Wilgy but I didn't have time and I don't know if I could have persuaded enough people. Moghedien didn't vote at all D2, which makes them more sus in my book than Marmot, even though I know that Marmot can be a sneaky evil mountain rat. Gun-to-head, I'm content chopping Kyle based on outdated information.

HK- we mind-melded a little bit earlier in the game when it came to strategy and that clouded my perception of you through D2 and part of D3. I want to believe you are a civvie, but I have to be willing to waffle on you now just as I've come to waffle on Tim. I understand your frustration about the data crunching. Sadly, I have a tendency to start things and fail to se them through per my initial vision. I'm big on ideas but I struggle in the execution of those ideas.

So yeah, I'll be spending some time tomorrow ISOing the four of you. Today, I'm content to lose to Daisy is she's snookered me. If I can find the time, I'm going to work up scenarios involving pairings, assuming we have both remaining baddies in the LB right now. Taking me and Daisy out of the equation, that means wrapping my head around teams consisting of:

Made-HK-Kyle
Made-HK-Tim
Made-HK-Tony
Made-Kyle-Tim
Made-Kyle-Tony
Made-Tim-Tony

For now though, it's 11:00 pm for me, and I'm an old man trapped in the body of a late-30-something. Good night.

I'll have more to say about this tomorrow I'm sure but I assume from this post you're clearing Marmot and Mogh? Or are you just focusing on who's here b/c those are the only people you can reasonably expect to solve today?

[DaisyCloud]

umm reading what I posted earlier i realize I look like I'm ranting . I'm not.

just so we are clear I don't think this game style and way to vote is stupid. just how we as players in bracket 2 including me have been mismanageing it and giving advantage to mafia.