The Syndicate

Lissa being bad does a lot to explain why this game always felt like it had a piece missing. Well played, y’all.

I don’t think we have a general consensus on how to handle being a cop. My strategy is to use it on players I am struggling to develop a read on one way or the other, but I’m not Mac so I don’t know how he’d use it.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:13 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:14 am [VOTE: macdougall] aubergine

i like the feel of this
I thought you and I were townreading each other and just lolcatting cover to protect us from night kills? What is this?

This is the only mention Mac makes of me Day 4. It does imply a town read, which is a sharp contrast to his attitude at the end of Day 3. That is not convincing on its own, unfortunately, and this post itself makes it seem like Mac is trying to claim that he never truly suspected, in which case why was I the most sensible check?

nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:33 pm I reached a townread of ow pretty independently tbf

Like part of it was based on some meta info from lissa and zack i guess, like that he'd probably put in more overt effort as a wolf

But mostly just like, waterfallness

He's all over the place in an uninformed town way

What is a waterfall?

I’m unclear on why outed wolf is suddenly a solid town read, but i’ll reserve questions until I have a better sense of things.

Despite the apparent tenseness in the thread immediately following Tony’s flip, I still feel like we are well positioned here. We have a good pool of suspects and plenty of evidence to sift through RE: Marcher, and it does feel like something like a town core is starting to emerge. We just need to work on coordinating and reaching a consensus of sorts. It feels like we just need one or two more pieces to fall into place.

My weekend full of work is over, so I should actually have time to digest this thread in the coming days.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:42 pm @Sloonei how do u feel about Carot now after her claim, knowing she didn't "see you visit tutuu"

Idk. I haven’t read/wrapped my head around everything that happened at eod. I just got home from work.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:30 pm I feel like I’m missing something but ok

Aside from her verifiable role, I’ve never seen nutella have an outburst like tonight’s after defenestration result.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:28 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:22 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:54 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:54 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:53 pm Ok if you guys aren’t too busy bitching and want to collaborate let’s do it up, I think there’s a solid 5-6 person towncore to be formed

Or you can keep complaining about nobody wanting to work together instead, idc
me/you/zack/lissa/visor/carot
Yeah sorry you’re not in my towncore or who I was talking to lol

Carot isn’t either
Nutella is locktown.
....ok, I guess

I’m glad we could reach this agreement.

Several people have commented that they disagree with my analysis of dunya/marcher.

Zero people have talked about why they disagree.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:54 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:54 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:53 pm Ok if you guys aren’t too busy bitching and want to collaborate let’s do it up, I think there’s a solid 5-6 person towncore to be formed

Or you can keep complaining about nobody wanting to work together instead, idc
me/you/zack/lissa/visor/carot
Yeah sorry you’re not in my towncore or who I was talking to lol

Carot isn’t either

Nutella is locktown.

dunya wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:50 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:47 pm i just like. actually didn't realize day was ending already and that his wagon had gotten so big
Fair. On my phone I didn't see how big the TSP wagon got either fwiw.

Surprised sloonei is there tbh

I decided to just follow bronana. I’m not super confident in my reads and he seems closest to having the game figured out.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:52 pm Carot is the right answer.

I’d prefer to spend more time sorting out the two cop claims. We have open nights

Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:52 pm [VOTE: tony] aubergine

Lol

Voted Long Con. Sheeping bronana.

Turnip and Radish had similar roles. Is it possible carot and mac are both telling the truth?

Gut says no, but

Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:45 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:44 pm if wilgy is a wolf and decided not to self-pres again I'll be surprised
yeah it'd be pretty weird

Not impossible for wilgy

Carot is probably the most confusing slot in the game right now, fwiw

Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:31 pm there's a chunk of marcher's posting that feels like they were actively trying to spew wilgy as their partner

i'm not confident enough in this to actively call it a townread for sure but it's enough i don't want to go there right now

Where?

[VOTE: tony] aubergine to get some activity going

Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:22 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:21 pm Dead air, dead villager?
it feels fucking impossible to make anything move right now

even tony is hard to get a bigger wagon on

In a few sentences, what is the case on Tony?
Similar prompt, why is Wilgy town?

If Mac and wilgy are both town then EoD 3 was one of the most bizarre things I’ve ever seen. Not saying it’s impossible, but like

moth wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:49 pm id be fine eliminatin dunya, long con, nanook, caro, wilgy, zack, or mac

Intentioinal Biiiig Salad

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:53 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:47 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:34 pm
Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:34 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:25 pm what is your read on sloonei lissa
i

had to take a bit earlier to actively filter out just wanting to write him off for volume/effort because i don't think he's someone appropriate to apply that to here

feel like i've taken active issue with enough other people maybe it just makes him a villager but i feel like that's like..... not a good actual thing to conclude from that at all

i feel like i've kept disagreeing with him in ways/contexts that make me feel like he's defending a lot of wolves
saaaaame
If it helps to settle me at all, since I’m a player who typically gets resolved early (especially when I’m bad), my strategy is usually to make sure my partners are difficult to trace back to me in the aftermath of my flip. I am more likely to bus aggressively than defend my teammates.

I can link games.
is that why dunya tried to tell me you were lock town because you would've bussed marcher earlier?

my problem is she already had you as top town before that, so it feels like tmi a bit.

Probably, yeah.

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:34 pm
Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:34 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:25 pm what is your read on sloonei lissa
i

had to take a bit earlier to actively filter out just wanting to write him off for volume/effort because i don't think he's someone appropriate to apply that to here

feel like i've taken active issue with enough other people maybe it just makes him a villager but i feel like that's like..... not a good actual thing to conclude from that at all

i feel like i've kept disagreeing with him in ways/contexts that make me feel like he's defending a lot of wolves
saaaaame

If it helps to settle me at all, since I’m a player who typically gets resolved early (especially when I’m bad), my strategy is usually to make sure my partners are difficult to trace back to me in the aftermath of my flip. I am more likely to bus aggressively than defend my teammates.

I can link games.

Wagons we have or have had today:

DrWilgy
Mac
Moth
Tony

What do we think of each of these four players as of this moment? What names could we consider adding to the list of candidates for elimination today? Is dunya a viable option for people?

Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:13 pm i'm... not really that compelled by the non-partner stuff for marcher/dunya

I kinda gave up on it halfway through because I was having a sneezing fit, tbh

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:07 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:03 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:59 pm sloonei, do you think it's possible dunya is a wolf who's pocketed you?
Definitely not impossible, but based on my interactive analysis of her and marcher, I would say she is town.
I can't shake the feeling that she's a wolf who made just enough of the right posts in the right spots to coast on townreads. I don't really recall much pushing of wolves, or solving in general really tbh, and she's gotten a bit of heat from villagy sources. idk, seems like one of those players that later in the game we'll be like "why is this person not getting any suspicion again?" and they turn out to be a wolf.

I’m open to dunya suspicion if not actively on board with it right now.

I can’t do any more heavy lifting this phase though. I am once again at work. I asked for my schedule to be as inconvenient as possible for mafia things.

Lissa wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:01 pm long con is bizarrely hard to get any meaningful traction on relative to his body of work

This is how I felt about outed wolf on Day 2.

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:59 pm sloonei, do you think it's possible dunya is a wolf who's pocketed you?

Definitely not impossible, but based on my interactive analysis of her and marcher, I would say she is town.

I do not have any reason to call Tony a town read.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:41 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:34 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:28 pm Also I've just been trying to prevent myself getting nked here mainly. I figure some people must have cottoned on given the cover I've been getting.

did you soft at some point? who are you suggesting covered you?
You not been following this one much have you.

I haven't softed outright but I've been playing in a cop like way (No making reads, covering NK potential) and Nook and Sloonei at times both seemed to just townlock me. I figured they had sensed it in me.

Mafia. Who are they?

I had not, I just don’t view activity as an alignment indicator for you, and thought the RNG thing was chaotic good mac.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:16 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:13 pm
MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:08 pm Okay fuckers I am an alignment cop. I didn't get enough glory to use my role until night 3. On night 3 I got a green on Sloonei.
So what was the deal with Marcher at the end of yesterday?
It is what it is Sloo

That’s not an answer.

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:15 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:55 pm
Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:53 pm
dunya wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:49 pm
Turnip Head wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:48 pm It's gonna be funny because my role was extremely similiar to Radishes'. So I probably won't be townread even after I flip town

are you claiming....3p?
Nope I'm town but my role is 90% same as Master Radishes' role so it's gonna be a headscratcher
Snap judgment: I believe this post.
why did you stay on th?

I didn’t stay on the wagon, I jumped there at the last second. I hadn’t been on TH at any point prior. I made another snap judgment and changed my mind about believing that post. Carot said something which put doubt in my mind, for whatever that’s worth. I’m not saying this to absolve myself of blame. I cast that vote all on my own. I didn’t love either of the options (Turnip & wilgy) at the time. This was the phase when I was trying to get people to talk about outed wolf.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:08 pm Okay fuckers I am an alignment cop. I didn't get enough glory to use my role until night 3. On night 3 I got a green on Sloonei.

So what was the deal with Marcher at the end of yesterday?

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:04 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:00 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 1:43 pm Busy doing 4th of july weekend stuff and haven't thoroughly read the past 500 posts or so.

Looking at the votes, it's funny to see exactly the three I expected on me following last EoD doing exactly that.

Sloonei, re:
Spoiler: show
http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 00#p625264
It feels as though you are leaving out some critical details regarding said timing that has you so concerned. While you are scummy, my vote was on Jovian and not moving after his bs vote on me and that was explicitly left out. The progression you detail as below skips this and moves directly onto me suspecting you.
"At 5:10 PM Eastern time, Marcher casts a vote for Wilgy.
Neither wilgy nor Marcher are very active for a while as more people plop votes down on them for a couple hours. Then at 7:26, Mac introduces the Sloonei tinfoil.
Also at 7:26, Marcher reappears to discredit the most recent point Sloonei has raised against them. Marcher had not posted for 2 hours prior to this. They returned to shade the player called Sloonei at the exact moment that Macdougall also started doing the same.
At 7:27, Doctor Wilgy also turns against Sloonei."

This gives an a lack of context and the way you present this feels manipulative of the data.

Now following my Jovian vote, you just seemed the most likely to be his teammate and when that "clicked" more things about this game made sense.

@cayvie my annoyance and rage have subsided. Would like to review TSP, Carot and [VOTE: SLOONEI] aubergine when I can, but that likely wont be until after Holiday.

Also re Dunya as I think someone had asked about her. See her interactions with me, they make me read her as a cautious civ. I don't see the angle where she pushes me as an "enigma" if she's scum with little to no pressure, meaning it's more likely a cautionary attitude... Which makes sense towards me I guess.

Will try to be back tomorrow.
I don’t care about your vote for this theory. The idea is that if you and Marcher are teammates, one of you was going to be eliminated no matter what yesterday. Having a vote on Marcher is a foregone conclusion. The conversation shifted abruptly to me, and it is clear and obvious that Marcher was complicit in that agenda. You were also part of it. My question is whether or not your involvement was coordinated. I would ask the same question of mac.
This would imply that I'm coordinated in the first place.

Jokes aside, do you have another side of this review regarding the coordination that MAC would be involved in? 'Macdougall initiates things by targeting Sloonei, but that does not necessarily need to be part of the coordination' or was it 'Mac's came first but was probably the least vocal.' And don't get me wrong here, I'm trying my best to voice 'What if you don't have an agenda.' as I read through this, but the post seems abnormally adverse to me. Adding 'I would ask the same question of Mac.' just seems like a means to invalidate the my theory of you putting me in your cross-hairs.

Mac could fit into a team with both you and Marcher or just with Marcher, I don’t really know. I haven’t looked into him, and that was not the angle I was exploring in the original post. I wanted to look at you specifically because you were the counterwagon to Marcher yesterday. I had previously asked “What if they’re both town?” When Marcher flipped mafia, that question became “What if they’re both mafia?” I was not directly interested in Mac’s involvement when I was making that post: my focus was on you.

bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:02 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:00 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:52 pm Mac makes less sense than Wilgy. Wilgy at least makes game state sense.
I feel like wilgy looks town today, but I’m not sure that’s enough to remove him from my pool of suspects.
i’m almost there on removing wilgy from my suspects, actually

kinda locked in on mac + carot + tsp as wolves rn

leaves long con or motobot as the missing piece i think

Why is moth off the table for you?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:52 pm Mac makes less sense than Wilgy. Wilgy at least makes game state sense.

I feel like wilgy looks town today, but I’m not sure that’s enough to remove him from my pool of suspects.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:47 pm [VOTE: moth] aubergine

I am only skimming ISOs right now, but moth + marcher looks like a viable pairing.

Marcher called moth a #weird town read, which was the source of ted’s initial suspicion. Marcher did not have a ton to say about moth afterwards, but also didn’t move them out of their town tier, unless I overlooked something.

Moth had very little to say about Marcher all game.

I haven’t looked at moth’s voting record.

[VOTE: moth] aubergine

I am only skimming ISOs right now, but moth + marcher looks like a viable pairing.

MacDougall wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:13 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:14 am [VOTE: macdougall] aubergine

i like the feel of this
I thought you and I were townreading each other and just lolcatting cover to protect us from night kills? What is this?

I didn’t get that impression seeing as you tried to get a push going on me at the end of the day alongside an outed wolf.

[VOTE: macdougall] aubergine

i like the feel of this

Marcher & dunya

Spoiler: show

First real mention of dunya in Marcher's ISO comes fairly late, and it's only an incidental mention in a post that is meant to shade Lissa.

Spoiler: show

They disagree about ted. This interaction doesn't tell me much about dunya/marcher, but I will not that Marcher's reaction to ted is a bit revealing: they were, at least initially, harshly anti-ted in response to his case. That may be revealing when it comes to Marcher's handling of pressure in general. They also accused me of pocketing-then-dropping them when I started to become suspicious.

Spoiler: show

Gut instinct is that this feels like a good look for dunya, but there's not enough here for me to run with that.

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Blunt dismissal and suspicion of dunya. Probably a good look.

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I have no basis for this claim, but I feel like quick successive inquires like this don't happen between mafia partners. I think generally partners are more inclined not to interact directly in the thread unless they're pursuing some specific plan or forced into it. These posts are totally casual and do not amount to much. If there was just one of them then I would not feel this way (a generic fluff post between partners here and there will always be a thing). But these are consecutive posts in Marcher's ISO, ~15 minutes apart, and both are unremarkable, straightforward questions for dunya. Slightly favorable look.

Spoiler: show

Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:33 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:15 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:13 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:08 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:06 pm
tedxtr wrote: ↑Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:05 pm I wanna town read Dunya for wanting to hand town reads like candy in this game state, because it comes from the PoV of a villager that wants to advance the game in some sort of way if that makes sense

the timing of it is better than the actual action
stop making good posts that's illegal
If I asked you to summarize your outlook on the state of this game right now in 250-500 words, what would you say?

You should also upload your resume with a cover letter.
today feels a lot better than yesterday. like things and solving are actually happening and town is finding town and working out and comparing their PoEs rather than everyone trying to chase down their own lead. good vibes. I'm a bit afraid we might be missing something right now and I'm getting pocketed by someone, but eh better to focus on chasing down the shallower wolves first and working off of a flip.
Which players have been the most noteworthy in this sudden uptick of game-solving? Where does your discomfort about potential pocketing stem from? Can you name names again? What might we be missing? Feel free to just vomit words, I don't care about (or even necessarily want) fully developed thoughts on this.
good new stuff: tedx's today right now feels so much better than his yesterday. You sticking out notes to compare on KZA and the talk about why KZA in general
potential pockets: you and dunya, primarily. You did a kinda white-knighty thing when you said you liked the way I posted and thought it reminded you of yourself yesterday when ted was focusing me and ted called you (and zack) out on it. Your playstyle vibe thus far has felt kinda procedural? Like not necessarily bad, just very measured and by the book and easily replicatable as either alignment. Dunya is a few things. Like her early posts on d1 felt a bit dunya.exe (though that might be just a multitabling thing) and her sheep onto radishes and eod in general feels kinda ehhhh. d2 feels fine and actually feels good vibes but I know she's a good player and has nothing really clearing her and stepping between a tvt tunnel and saying "I think you're both town" is a classic move for cred

other fears/missing things—Long Con read, which I don't get but is just kinda accepted without challenge. Just generally being with good players who aren't out of wolf range like zack or visor. Lissa town reads.

Dunya and I are accused of pocketing. Do teammates accuse one another of pocketing? Idk. Maybe? I don't feel particularly bad about this, and the language of Marcher's post feels like the kind of opportunistic shading of a wolf going after a potential paranoia target in three-games-at-once dunya.

Spoiler: show

Dunya is in the top half of Marcher's big pile of nothing. Okay.

Spoiler: show

I feel like neither of these posts exist if these two are partners. Dunya's post is too casual about her Marcher suspicion to strike me as bussing. Marcher's response is harsh in a way that suggests genuine annoyance about something, though I can't really say what.

Spoiler: show

The quick follow-up post suggests that Marcher felt the first one lacked commitment. So are they trying to distance from a partner, or sell a phony suspicion on a civilian? My gut tells me the latter based on previous posts.
dunya is afraid to bus a teammate, for what it's worth.

Spoiler: show

This feels like an organic exchange. That would be a good look for dunya as well.

Spoiler: show

I don't think this is partners.

Spoiler: show

Okay yeah this is not partners.

I'm gonna cut this short and post it now because allergies are making my eyes water and it's uncomfortable to sit here reading and reacting to a ton of posts right now. I may resume later, but it's 2 AM all of a sudden.

Dunya - I'd confidently say that these two are not partners. I have not looked at the other side of the interactions yet, though, so I'll refrain from awarding dunya with a much-coveted dark green for now. But I think a vote for dunya would be ill-advised.

Back on the ISO train we go.

Marcher & Carot

Spoiler: show

First interaction is a generic question. I can make nothing of this yet. It exists.

Spoiler: show

I might be able to glean something here. There is a moment of miscommunication after what appears to be an attempt by Marcher to shade ted. I would speculate that it's less likely for Marcher to have specifically attempted to shade a civilian in a direct interaction with their partner. Marcher has no reason to present their question about ted in such loaded language if they're dealing with one of their own partners, and I am inclined to read that as more likely being the result of a mafioso who is trying to lead a civilian into a negative read on another civilian; the moment of unclarity here is another favorable sign for Carot. Minor point, but a point nonetheless.

Spoiler: show

I read this as more of an anti-ted post than a pro-carot post. Reminds me also of some of Marcher's posts about bronana. Not much to say here.

Spoiler: show

Distinctly pro-carot. Okay.

Spoiler: show

I am a bit concerned here: Marcher's answer to bronana's question is not easily extracted, and when it does come out it's not a very inspiring read, and also gets walked back a little in the second sentence. It is not impossible to read that as Mafia #1 hastily defending their partner and being ill-prepared to back it up. However, I can also read it as Marcher simply tripping over their words a bit when asked to explain a read. One does not typically frame a civilian read being "caught."

Spoiler: show

My first reaction is that Marcher doesn't flip out like this if Carot is actually their teammate. I would be inclined to read this as more of a feigned impassioned defense of a civilian in pocketing attempt. But who knows? Marcher also went to frankly ridiculous lengths to... do something to me at the end of Day 3, so they're certainly not averse to huge dramatic reactions to things here. I'd lean favorably on this for carot, but that's not a strong lean.

Spoiler: show

...Okay... I can't tell if this is a player who feels "caught for the wrong reasons" or a player who is trying to scramble back after over-extending themselves on their partner defense. This post frankly just looks bizarre in hindsight.

Spoiler: show

I guess the post gives a slight vibe (again) of a player trying to score townie points for an impassioned stand, rather than teammate-defense. After walking it back in the previous post, here Marcher is doubling down on the position that the case against Carot was the problem rather than anything that Carot has done to make them overtly civilian. In that light it reads more as a "You are all bad!" post rather than a "Carot is good" post. But that could also be a nervous response to accidentally associating too hard with their partner.

Spoiler: show

Nah. If Carot was nervous and trying to dissociate from this position, they wouldn't continue to harp on it like this. I'll continue to lean slightly favor toward this being a good look for Carot. The possibility of Marcher going for a hard WIFOM play can't be totally disregarded, but that would not be my first guess.
This continues for several more posts. Skipping ahead, as I have no new comments on any of it.

Spoiler: show

Generic softball prompt for reads. Meh.

Spoiler: show

The top tier of Marcher's reads list is reserved for Carot and nobody else. If these two are partners then Marcher is just totally daring us to bite. Would they be this brazen as a relatively new player in a totally new environment?
Skipping a few more posts I have nothing to say about...

Spoiler: show

A firm reiteration of the Carot town read. I am starting to lean more comfortably towards saying that Marcher does not spend so much time and energy offering unsolicited praise of their own partner.

Spoiler: show

Marcher's wet fart post was a response to a pointed question from carot. Probably a good look for our vegetable friend, with the caveat that Marcher was probably being bussed at this point.

Then we enter the frantic "vote Sloonei 2020" phase of Marcher's game. But even with their dying breath, Marcher was making sure we still knew that carot was a town read:

Spoiler: show

Idk what to make of this specifically, but based on the rest of the ISO I'll continue to lean town on Carot.

Carot & Marcher

Spoiler: show

Carot does not take Marcher's anti-ted bait. A good look. I do not think that a pair of mafia partners conspire to fake an interaction which has Partner #1 ask Partner #2 a leading question only for Partner #2 to respond with bland, uninterested dismissal.

Spoiler: show

Likewise, I can't imagine why a mafia member would feel compelled to make a post like this about their own partner. Either you want to critique their read or you want to approve of it. If carot was asked directly for her take on Marcher's post, I'd feel differently. But this appears to be an unprompted post. More good looks for carot.

Spoiler: show

I don't know why exactly this is Carot's read, but it's not far out of line with how I felt at the time.

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Is it naive to say that some version of this post would belong in team chat rather than in the thread if they were partners?

Spoiler: show

Marcher is #1 town read. Okay.

Spoiler: show

Scoffs at the notion of a marcher-nutella-carot scum team, but that objection is more to do with nutella's involvement than anything else, i think.

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I have no idea why this read exists. It is wrong. Why does this read exist?

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Is it naive to say that mafia carot doesn't go out of their way to single out this post, and then single out marcher within the post it as the lone town read of the bunch?

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Y'know, these two are both firmly in each other's corners and I have been leaning in carot's favor on that for most of this exercise, but I have to give voice to the tinfoil theory because it's still lingering as I work through these posts: Marcher expended an inordinate, highly unnecessary and one might say ill-advised, amount of energy shading me at the end of Day 3. Ordinarily a harsh stance like that would be a step toward clearing me, but the volume and tenacity with which Marcher pursued that push makes it so obviously staged that people have been legitimately questioning it. Could we be seeing a similar thing here, inverted, with their partner in Carot? They're both going above and beyond the level that I'd typically expect of two mafia partners defending one another, but there is evidence for Marcher going above and beyond elsewhere in this very thread. I dunno. I 'd still say carot is town, but this possibility exists too.

Spoiler: show

again.

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Carot is enamored with Marcher's excuse to suspect Turnip Head. Okay.

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More of the same.

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Carot abruptly acknowledges Marcher as a viable suspect as part of a specific hypothetical team. I'm not sure why these five names were given the stamp of carot approval.

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This is not an unreasonable observation, and I was the one who officially put the conversation about ted catching marcher to bed (or at least I claim credit for it because of my enormous ego), so I don't object.

Spoiler: show

This read/progression is not too dissimilar to my own early on Day 3. There remains a distinct possibility that the mafia team decided it was time to cut Marcher loose at this stage, in which case I could view this sharp turn in an unfavorable light. But the tinfoil suspicion I've mentioned previously is not strengthened by this, really. It's not weakened either. The needle doesn't move much.

Spoiler: show

I like this well enough at face value, though see the caveat about potential bussing.

tl;dr - Carotenoid - There is one very specific tinfoil theory to consider here, but otherwise this looks like a comfortable town lean. The tinfoil is just strong enough to hold me back though. Even with that being the case, I would lean in Carot's favor. Both Carot and Marcher spent a lot of time saying nice things about each other, in such a way that goes beyond what I would normally expect from a pair of partners defending one another. The argument against Carot relies on both of these players having gone for a WIFOM-fueled gambit, which is a suspicion I would ordinarily reject if not for Marcher's EoD3 being such a WIFOM factory. But that was a hail mary play, and I have no reason to believe that Marcher would have been chucking up hail mary's from the first quarter on. So Carot's probably town, with just enough doubt wedged in my brain for me to call it a slam dunk. I'm mixing sports like crazy here, that's an unforced error.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:05 am
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established
Is wilgy one of them?
could be. I independently tr wilgy.

why?

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established

Is wilgy one of them?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:11 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm

nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
I mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.
Not much downside to it at that point tho
Agreed
If you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lol
Just to state it
Would you say this is a helpful observation or

Yes, or it could at the very least lead somewhere. There is no harm in bringing it up.

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:08 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:27 pm What do you mean by worst?
nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
I mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.
yeah. dilutes the evidence. Marcher was going down though, hard to say. Did anyone ever bring that up as an argument against him being a wolf?

I talked about it.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:27 pm What do you mean by worst?
nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
I mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.
Not much downside to it at that point tho
Agreed
If you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lol

Just to state it

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm
Carotenoid wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:27 pm What do you mean by worst?
nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
I mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.
Not much downside to it at that point tho

Agreed

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