An Australian Country Murder Mystery (Day 4)

[Dom]

G--

Michelle was my biggest suspicion going into Day 2. She was opportunistic day one, and did nothing to convince me otherwise in the course of day two. My other big option was nutella. I think nutella convinced me that Michelle was more likely bad through... well... I don't know. Michelle was just a better lynch candidate to me. I have to [VOTE: Nutella] aubergine to self preserve.

She's likely to be bad. I don't like her record and she isn't puttin gin the effort.

I'm very busy tonight and I have to go now. bie.

[Long Con]

Nutella-- why LLD? Why LC??

LC-- why LLD? Why nutella?

LLD-- why nutella? Why LC?

This posts kind of reeks. I don't find it all that genuine, some manufactured triad of callouts that requires no thought, just throws it all at three other players to deal with. Like, where does LLD suspect nutella??

I've stated why I suspect nutella in a couple of posts. LLD because she's so super-sketchy and interesting.

Dom doesn't feel real to me, I believe he's a baddie trying to put in legwork to feign towniness. [VOTE: Dom] aubergine

This is entirely manufactured since you're the topic of debate today. Try harder.

I asked my top suspects to convince me whom to vote for amongst them.

That's funny. I think you're a better topic of debate today.

[nutella]

Deflections everywhere

[DFaraday]

Be safe, Sabie!

3) What convinced Dom to leave his vote on Michelle? How did that progression take place. The post containing his vote for her said "for now" but it ended up being for good. That might help me clear my Dom sus.

It could be a bus. His vote followed the strong Michelle-lynch start from Epi and Sloonei, so he wasn't the one pushing the hardest for Michelle. Then those two voted off and Dom stayed. Perfect bus-without-lynching possibility. Dom didn't really give a lot of reasons for others to vote there, just that Michelle was a common thread in the possibilities, along with a couple of other players. The votes swung back, Dom then had to choose whether to change his vote and risk looking like a teammate, or swallow it and try to look good.

His vote's in the perfect place for a bus. Looks a lot like my style of bussing, actually.

The thing is Sabie would have been such a safe place to hide. Dom could have just made a post about the Sabie suspicions and moved his vote there, and probably wouldn’t have even garnered attention with all the vote switching that goes on (besides if Sabie had been lynched we wouldn’t know Michelle was bad anyway). In a game with one bad team and tight numbers to begin with I don’t think bussing on Day 2 is the most likely option.

[Long Con]

Deflections everywhere

Am I deflecting something?

[DFaraday]

I think it’s a huge stretch to think that Dom’s vote on Day 2, coming when it did, is the work of a teammate, and it’s suspect that people keep pushing that angle. I’m voting [VOTE: Nutella] aubergine because I think she’s a pretty good bet based on the votes and I want to save Dom.

[sabie12]

I've been reading and re reading isos and I have to go with nutella. Nutella has been a common suspicion throughout the game especially with the civs who were lynched or nightkilled so far. I don't know if I really see a reason that dom would need to bus michelle so early on in the day when he had a chance to go in other directions. He was somewhat defensive of her which may be worth looking at but his progression on day 2 to me doesnt really make sense as a michelle teammate. Nutella has been defensive of michelle and votes in her own direction away from where other suspicion is going.I know nutella has a tendency to move along with the flow of the thread either way but she hasnt felt like shes been trying to solve this game. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

[nutella]

Well I guess imma [VOTE: dom] aubergine for the hell of it though I think he has looked pretty town, ugh. If anyone still wants to go for G-man or LC I think those would be more likely to hit scum than Dom bit I will go for whatever is most likely to self pres at this point because I know I'm town. I can see why I look bad here and that I should be resolved but I hope after my flip you will look at the people I've suggested.

[Epignosis]

I think it’s a huge stretch to think that Dom’s vote on Day 2, coming when it did, is the work of a teammate, and it’s suspect that people keep pushing that angle. I’m voting [VOTE: Nutella] aubergine because I think she’s a pretty good bet based on the votes and I want to save Dom.

I agree with the bearded one.

[Long Con]

Maybe you're right, maybe Dom isn't that good at Mafia. Nutella is a fine choice.

[G-Man]

Not only do I recognize that my tendency to play from behind is frustrating to those of you who play in the moment, but I admit that it’s frustrating to me too. My tendency to only put in half the effort I aspire to is one of the reasons I don’t play often. I thought I could make it work this time, but surprise surprise surprise- wrong age.

Long day, which I’ll post about in the OT section of the site. Nutella gives my spreadsheet the heebie-jeebies and my spreadsheet was right about Michelle. I’m not going to overthink this one. Dom as a baddie requires too much tin foil to buy into right now, and I am exhausted. Lynch nutella today folks. My vote stays put.

[Long Con]

Nothing to do to save his life, call his wife in

So, nutella. Seems like you are going to die. Legacy?

[Long Con]

Oh wait, it's to take out me and G-Man over Dom.

[Long Con]

You can still make.... a different legacy post

[MacDougall]

"This is farken Straya carnt!"

Nutella was lynched. Mafia Godfather up in this ho.

Night. Do shiz.

[Long Con]

Nice.

[Quin]

tfw your top two suspects are leading the wagon nd you forget to vote

[Epignosis]

did I understood correct, Jack is suspicious because he pinged a low poster to play?

well, and because of how he played it off after the fact. his wording was inconsistent, it seems like he was implying he was pushing some lynch pressure onto DF when that implication had not really been present in the original post. I was just confused by the whole thing and why any of it existed

nutella and Michelle did a whole dance about Jack regarding his comment on DFaraday.

@DFaraday

You have a history of missing day phases and ending games with under 10 posts. I understand that irl stuff happens but It has become a pattern.

I would absolutely love to play a mafia game with you but that’s going to require you to play a mafia game with me as well.

Please post.

You're mafia.

No you.

If I was mafia, I wouldn’t start the game with a push on a guy who tends to get himself lynched all on his own.

Why wouldn't you? In a game with so few players, nearly all of which are vanilla, every town vote is significant. The usual approach of leaving me for late game won't fly here, since in a few phases I could conceivably pop back in after a hiatus and cast a deciding vote. It might be a better approach for the Mafia to go for a softball right out of the gate to get a jump on the numbers without really putting themselves on the line in the way they might in trying to fabricate a case on a more prominent player.

yeah. this is why "mislynch bait"/going after low-hanging fruit is a problem. it almost always ends up in the scum's favor

but I still feel like my initial concern wasn't even answered. Jack were you "pushing" DF with the post or not?

"How serious were you Jack about going after [my teammate] DF?"

Uncomfortable shoe, but it fits. Eh.

Jack is town.

Why's that

Prodding DF the way he did probably isn’t a thing scum jack does. Overreacting to initial concerns over it definitely is not a thing scum jack does. He’s a player that people treat with skepticism fairly often because his style of play doesn’t change much between factions. I sense that his frustration today stems from being tired of being misread, especially this aggressively so early on in a game.

ok

nutella went mama bear against Jack for the DF stuff and let it go when Sloonei diffused it.

I don't think I've quite seen the specific thing I was referring to from Michelle, but I feel okay about her in general. Her questioning and reads look pretty typical.

Jack's first post about DF was the "friendly invitation to play." After that, Jack responded to something by saying like "why would I push for a DF mislynch like that if I were scum." My gripe was that he clearly hadn't been pushing on DF in a suspiciony way, and he stated as such, yet he had defensively implied it.

Yes, I do think Jack could still be bad given tony flipped town. It's not a very strong associative read in that direction though.

The language here is not unlike what Michelle did to Sloonei. I have to squint to see DFaraday as bad in this exchange.

++++

After their most recent exchange I'm feeling like TSP and Nutella are both town. At the very least, I doubt they're teammates because their lengthy misunderstanding discussion felt too meandering and inconsequential to be a planned interaction.

This is concerning. This was from Day 1 and calling a teammate a civilian when you're calling a real civilian a civilian is an easier thing to do. It's a hedge. It's a spoonful of sugar.

After their most recent exchange I'm feeling like TSP and Nutella are both town. At the very least, I doubt they're teammates because their lengthy misunderstanding discussion felt too meandering and inconsequential to be a planned interaction.

You should stop voting for me.

But you're unlynchable, so it won't matter anyway.

I meant to respond earlier to your post asking us for reasons for voting you. I felt I was pretty clear in my earlier post, but to reiterate I think it's entirely conceivable that scum could try to instigate a low-risk lynch on someone like me in order to get a numbers advantage early, since in a game like this if I hang around until Day 4 or 5 like usual I could be a difference maker. I don't know for sure that's what you were doing, but you seemed to dismiss the possibility without any consideration, which was more of a bad look imo.

I don't find Nutella suspicious, so I don't plan on voting her. If you have a good case for someone else I'd be willing to listen.

This is a response demanding attention.

Remember that nutella is the mafia godfather- the most important mafia member (and I don't care if info dumping is legal or not ).

DFaraday protects nutella staunchly here. He doesn't mind going after Michelle the goon later.

That sudden late surge of Tony votes wasn't suspicious at all.

This is a garbage post. It adds nothing to the conversation.

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

I do not follow. Nutella did not vote for Tony, and I find it a bit of a stretch to assume that Jack was killed for the purpose of silencing his criticism of nutella. Plus, we now know that Jack would have been a perfectly viable counterwagon yesterday if nutella was bad and the mafia team wanted to save her. There wouldn’t have been a need for any of them to push to Tony (and no reason not to. My point is that I don’t see how this pair of deaths reflects poorly on nutella specifically). Is there more to this suspicion?

So you don't think the kill was a frame of me? That was my first thought, and that sabie either bought it or is promoting the narrative that I'm scum.

I think it's the second option. I actually began thinking there might be a Sabie/Michelle connection yesterday, but didn't want to say anything explicit during the night. My theory is that Michelle forced suspicion on Tony, then had to double down on it as their interaction continued, and Sabie just parroted her teammate's suspicion. Sabie's post today makes me feel even less warm towards her, since it's basically shouting, "WOW HOW SUSPICIOUS DOES THIS KILL MAKE NUTELLA LOOK, RIGHT GUYS?"

Oof.

Let's break this down.

Sloonei questioned sabie about her nutella vote, and nutella's response was to call sabie either a dupe or evil.

DFaraday's very first post that calendar day was to answer this in detail.

"I actually began thinking there might be a Sabie/Michelle connection yesterday..."

There's so much hedging in this language. DFaraday has zero conviction here. What's worse is that this was the Day Michelle got lynched, DF established the most ridiculous theory that could still paint sabie as bad in the event that Michelle got lynched.

Folks, this was Day 2. Michelle was still alive. DF's theory is predicated on Michelle being bad- he's ready to string up sabie on the basis of Michelle being bad. A civilian could not know Michelle was bad at that point.

Yet the all-caps is a hardy defense of the mafia godfather.

Also, here are all of Sabie's posts regarding suspicions of Jack, Nutella, and Tony:

So right now I'm feeling suspicious of both Jack and nutella. Jack specifically commented on everyone in response to g man's post except me. He would have actually had to delete my name from the original post because now it's not there. Jack has played multiple games with me so why leave me out? Accidentally forgot me? Maybe... So far whenever I've played a game with jack and he's been mafia he makes it a point not to accuse me and ends up lulling me into a false sense of security just to come out and win in the end. Last time I realized just one lynch too late that it had happened again. He said hi to me in the beginning of the game so he knows I'm here. Also, I'm not sure how to take the whole making a big deal about DFs playstyle in the beginning.

I know nutella can be waffley a lot of times but some of what she's said kind of pinged me such as saying she didn't even know that Jack already votes and thinking tony would have tmi this early in the game. Some of her posts are just contradicting statements.

So right now I'm feeling suspicious of both Jack and nutella. Jack specifically commented on everyone in response to g man's post except me. He would have actually had to delete my name from the original post because now it's not there. Jack has played multiple games with me so why leave me out? Accidentally forgot me? Maybe... So far whenever I've played a game with jack and he's been mafia he makes it a point not to accuse me and ends up lulling me into a false sense of security just to come out and win in the end. Last time I realized just one lynch too late that it had happened again. He said hi to me in the beginning of the game so he knows I'm here. Also, I'm not sure how to take the whole making a big deal about DFs playstyle in the beginning.

I know nutella can be waffley a lot of times but some of what she's said kind of pinged me such as saying she didn't even know that Jack already votes and thinking tony would have tmi this early in the game. Some of her posts are just contradicting statements.

What are your thoughts on G-man and Tony?

Tony I'm not sure. He's pretty defensive of Jack but when he's been bad in the past he posted more and did more "reads" right away. He seems more tentative so far so I could go either way on him. What's your suspicion of him from?


Gman is putting a good amount of effort in. I don't think I ever played a game where he was mafia so Ive only seen his civ game. I don't think he has said anything sketchy so far.

I have suspicions on all three of the people with votes. In looking through Tony's posts a lot of his focus is on jack. He makes it a point to say "if I'm nightkilled jack is scum" and that he needs a few days to figure him out subtle ways of saying dont lynch me im town without actually saying it. When he was mafia in the past his main focus of discussion was his own teammates so if they got killed off he could be like see I'm not bad. Ive seen jack do this as well. Also his post making it a point to say how many mislynches we can have was a little sketchy. I see a lot of fair points on him and he hasnt done much to counteract these points.

Jack I've expressed my suspicion on him. There's a fair amount of back and forth discussion on him but I'm still leaning towards thinking he is mafia.

Nutella can be very difficult to read as she does often follow the waves of the thread but her response to things so far hasn't made me feel confident about her being town.

This day 1 is hard there are fair points on all three. Voting tony as I feel worst about him and his efforts thus far.

Her first two posts cast suspicion almost entirely on Jack and Nutella, while saying that Tony has been defensive of Jack and she could "go either way" on him. However, her next relevant post sees her apparently much more suspicious of Tony for discussing an alleged teammate (Jack), when this didn't seem so damning in her earlier assessment. Also note that this development and her subsequent vote follow shortly after Michelle's vote for Tony.

I'm going to [VOTE: Sabie] aubergine for now, but I don't discourage Michelle voters either.

Here's the vote for sabie (the person who is bad if Michelle is bad according to his theory).

Why not go ahead and vote for Michelle first? Why vote for sabie and then add "Michelle's a good pick" on top of it?

Horseshit.

I agree with Sloonei’s arguments pertaining to Nutella, she’s not a strong town read for me at this point. I don’t agree on the Sabie town read, since in the absence of other viable lynches it doesn’t strike me as unlikely for two teammates to distance when they’re both on the chopping block.

LC is playing a weird game, but I don’t know if he’d be this cavalier as a baddie (again, I don’t pay much attention to meta).

"Yeah, nutella isn't doing a good job. Let's look at LC."

++++

DFaraday has seventeen posts. I did not expect to be able to extract a clear opinion of him from those, but here it is: DFaraday is mafia.

[Epignosis]

because scum partners tend to avoid acknowledging each other? that's a long supported Thing

I didn't count, but it looks like DF talked more about Michelle and nutella than anybody else.

[Long Con]

Not bad, Epi. You're going to make the next <72 hours very boring with this kind of case.

[Epignosis]

If you are a civilian, just ignore my existence. I'm not going to be around to make a difference.

[Epignosis]

Hmmm

LC and LLD probably not w/w?

LC seems compatible with G-man though. Timing of the Dom vote is weird after my G-man vote.

How does no one see what I see in G? His "analysis" is such a waste of space imo. He's not going anywhere with it. And as I keep pointing out, his Michelle vote was not good

I haven't gotten to G-Man yet, but this is the exact same thing mafia did to me elsewhere. I'll leave it at that.

I'll still get to G-Man though.

[Epignosis]

Dom is easy though

nutella, you've said that you're good at reading Dom in the past I think. What should I think here?

I think he's town. He's doing his typical thing of gathered reactions to lots of little things.

OK.
I'll chew on that.

Let's say sabie isn't in the game.

Why do we lynch and why?

At the moment I would say Epi or LC because they are being very go with the flow/unconcerned with actually solving.

I appreciate this post from Dom.

Quin is bad: Long Con

Quin is good: sabie

sabie is bad: Michelle, Sloonei or Dom

sabie is good: Quin or Michelle

Michelle is bad: sabie

Michelle is good: Dom or Epi

(Skipping the me part )

The red is obviously not going to happen. Protecting Dom the teammate? Eh.

I'm passing on the LLD stuff until later for my own mental health.

I have to admit though I had the same thought about that Dom post. Odd neutral-arbiter vibes.

The context here is weak (and full of shitty hedging language like "I have to admit though").

Well I guess imma [VOTE: dom] aubergine for the hell of it though I think he has looked pretty town, ugh. If anyone still wants to go for G-man or LC I think those would be more likely to hit scum than Dom bit I will go for whatever is most likely to self pres at this point because I know I'm town. I can see why I look bad here and that I should be resolved but I hope after my flip you will look at the people I've suggested.

Token gesture.

++++

Dom is the patsy here. At least that is my own inclination.

[Long Con]

I thought that I would be suspect number 1 after this lynch. I voted for *the other guy* and probably pushed the hardest for the Dom lynch. I had some nutella suspicion sprinkled into my posts earlier, but never pulled the trigger on them.

[Epignosis]

I thought that I would be suspect number 1 after this lynch. I voted for *the other guy* and probably pushed the hardest for the Dom lynch. I had some nutella suspicion sprinkled into my posts earlier, but never pulled the trigger on them.

Don't worry. I'll get to you before I am killed.

[Long Con]

I thought that I would be suspect number 1 after this lynch. I voted for *the other guy* and probably pushed the hardest for the Dom lynch. I had some nutella suspicion sprinkled into my posts earlier, but never pulled the trigger on them.

Don't worry. I'll get to you before I am killed.

Thanks dude. Also, if DF is bad, he agreed to be my bro and voted Jack with me at the start.

[Epignosis]

I thought that I would be suspect number 1 after this lynch. I voted for *the other guy* and probably pushed the hardest for the Dom lynch. I had some nutella suspicion sprinkled into my posts earlier, but never pulled the trigger on them.

Don't worry. I'll get to you before I am killed.

Thanks dude. Also, if DF is bad, he agreed to be my bro and voted Jack with me at the start.

If DF is bad, we can stop this nonsense and go get sandwiches.

[Long Con]

Vegemite?

[Epignosis]

Vegemite?

I somewhat come from a land down under.

[Epignosis]

Character claiming, roleclaiming and infodumping is fully legal.

Neat.

I am not the cop.

[Epignosis]

I don't recommend that anybody else claim.

In case that wasn't clear.

[Epignosis]

I can't read half of Quin's posts. Probably civilian.

[Long Con]

I can't read half of Quin's posts. Probably civilian.

Players who do a shtick... more often Civ or baddie?

Also, I had an idea that LLD was the cop, and that she had red-peeked Dom and that's why she was trying to make that death-pact with him. That's the main reason I started focusing on Dom.

[Epignosis]

I can't read half of Quin's posts. Probably civilian.

Players who do a shtick... more often Civ or baddie?

Also, I had an idea that LLD was the cop, and that she had red-peeked Dom and that's why she was trying to make that death-pact with him. That's the main reason I started focusing on Dom.

LLD's treatment of nutella elsewhere makes this not a swamp I am prepared to dive into.

[Epignosis]

My civilian view of Quin comes from his votes.

[Epignosis]

Going to have a night cap, and then I'm off. I'll be around for one more half hour.

[Epignosis]

Hmmm the plot thickens. Jack and tony both felt pretty confidently that nutella was bad and now they both have flipped civ. I've been iffy on nutella from the beginning and am inclined to believe maybe tony and jack were right about her. Putting my vote there for now.[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sounds like it was you. [VOTE: sabie] aubergine

Sounds like what was me? You also had thought jack and tony were potentially bad. I was saying tony and Jack both suspected nutella maybe we should consider they could have been right about her.

Dom is right I am moving my vote to Michelle right now. She at least popped in to kind of respond to accusations on her but I'm not really feeling she's trying to defend anything that anyone throws her way for suspicions. Her reasoning for suspecting tony wasn't explained well and she doesn't seem to be trying to do so.


Also I'm not sure what to think of the sloonei/epi dynamic. I have been seeing it as epi doesnt really have time to play so he just kinda throws suspicion around and does whatever he feels like because he's not super invested in it.
[VOTE: michelle] aubergine

I've been reading and re reading isos and I have to go with nutella. Nutella has been a common suspicion throughout the game especially with the civs who were lynched or nightkilled so far. I don't know if I really see a reason that dom would need to bus michelle so early on in the day when he had a chance to go in other directions. He was somewhat defensive of her which may be worth looking at but his progression on day 2 to me doesnt really make sense as a michelle teammate. Nutella has been defensive of michelle and votes in her own direction away from where other suspicion is going.I know nutella has a tendency to move along with the flow of the thread either way but she hasnt felt like shes been trying to solve this game. [VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Bad sabie doesn't vote off her entire team.

still I need to vote, i may fell asleep
[VOTE: Sabie] aubergine

Yeah I especially don't like the post Gman called the worst from sabie. Saying she was equally okay with lynching all three of the mislynch candidates on d1 doesn't look good at all in hindsight. And in her recent posts I still get the sense she is using the jack and tony flips to set me up as the next ML.

[VOTE: sabie] aubergine

I'm going to stop here. sabie is a victim. Not mafia.

[Epignosis]

Civilians have two mistakes still. Please do not get complacent.

[Dom]

I can't read half of Quin's posts. Probably civilian.

Players who do a shtick... more often Civ or baddie?

Also, I had an idea that LLD was the cop, and that she had red-peeked Dom and that's why she was trying to make that death-pact with him. That's the main reason I started focusing on Dom.

bullshit.

[Long Con]

I can't read half of Quin's posts. Probably civilian.

Players who do a shtick... more often Civ or baddie?

Also, I had an idea that LLD was the cop, and that she had red-peeked Dom and that's why she was trying to make that death-pact with him. That's the main reason I started focusing on Dom.

bullshit.

No, man, it's the actual truth.

[Long Con]

...but I guess LLD comes from a culture where open claiming and infodumping are always allowed, and this game allows it. So I guess she would have neither the reason, nor the wherewithal, to use such a ploy. I just thought, why would a Civ agree to such a deal? Lynch her first, and then lynch you? Being the cop (and getting revealed about it) would ensure that her red-peek goes through. But that's "no infodumping" talk, and the reality of the game makes it equivalent to bullshit after all.

[Dom]

caught in a fucking lie

[sabie12]

Awesome!

[Long Con]

caught in a fucking lie

You are venomously precious.

[G-Man]

Now that's what I call a good result!

Here are my revised spreadsheet screenshots. Make of them what you will.


All Player Votes

Spoiler: show

Day 1 Vote Order

Spoiler: show

Day 2 Vote Order

Spoiler: show

Day 3 Vote Order

Spoiler: show

[Dom]

caught in a fucking lie

You are venomously precious.

i'm bored with your bullshit

[Long Con]

caught in a fucking lie

You are venomously precious.

i'm bored with your bullshit

Well, that's no good! No good at all.

[Long Con]

At the end of Day 2, was it clear that nutella would be lynched? Would she tell a teammate to bus hard?

[Dom]

Given that it was a tie when I voted, how obvious was it that nutella was getting lynched?

[Epignosis]

At the end of Day 2, was it clear that nutella would be lynched? Would she tell a teammate to bus hard?

Looked like Michelle was getting lynched at the end of Day 2 to me.