Hi I’m a civilian voting for Hally.
You’re not going to talk me into voting for myself.
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This is an extremely good question. Like he’s willing to turn on a dime and decide this person or that person is scum. For almost no reason.
This is the exact argument you used for why me and tony weren’t a team.
I ctrl-f'd Hally in Dunya's Iso. This is basically all Dunya said about Hally. Dunya did not vote Hally.dunya wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:23 am sorry guys, i was feeling pretty lousy and turns out i had some food poisoning and im still a little out of it but im here
gth reads without reading the thread, but a few tone-posts from each player here we go
112 - w
Arete - t
Ash Lael - w
DrWilgy - t
Hally - w
Long Con - t
Michelle - w
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME - t
Poison Chan - t
tedxtr - w
TonyStarkPrime - t
TripleHaven - t
tutuu - t
Vulgard - t
my poe is
112
ash
hally
michelle
ted
i wanna say my strongest town reads are nanook and longcon tbh. my weakest wolf read is ted, so i will not vote for him until day 3 at least.
the person i think most likely could swing w from my t reads is vulgard for possible tmi, but i will eventually read up (or not) see what he has to offer.
high poster hally in a vacuum should be town, but i felt like she was gaslighting us with questions and content which she doesn't really build from. like they're prods and questions which she doesn't really care about one way or the other.
don't really know much about tsp, except he didn't like one of my posts and i like that reaction. no idea if triplehaven has posted yet, i'll get there.
wilgy im giving a soul town read to.
Why are you so against scum!Hally?
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
I would be convinced only if you have convincing points for your conclusions.
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
I'm not trying to solve G man, but if we just think about the very basic setups and balancing, for any game, you cannot deny that two docs [self healing] is unbalanced. Besides, if she was indeed the doc how is she not mod killed or even got a warning? She did more than slight soft hinting, don't you think?
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
I like this post tbh. I might add some points to it later.Arete wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:34 pm Arete attempts to do VCA (and probably comes to a bunch of wrong conclusions)
okay
(this is all ignoring my actual reads)
on a level-1 level Poison + Ash being on the wolf on D1 is a better look for them, Hally being on the CW is a worse look, and Epi being way off wagon is a slightly worse look for them
that said it's LyLo so I don't want to be like 'wolves never vote wolves, Ash and Poison are locktown'
on a slightly higher level I think the context of the EoD points to Ash and Hally not being aligned? like, Ash was spending basically all of D1 dunking on TSP, while Hally was spending EoD1 being like 'CFD the two poster,' and I think that's kind of bizarre if they're partners
that's not VCA per se but I think it's true
semi-points to Poison/Hally not being a thing since one would be bussing while the other would be trying to CFD the 2-poster, but I don't think that's nearly as strong of a case as the case against Ash/Hally since that could just be individual preferences for deepwolfing vs. powerwolfing
D2 is V/V wagons, I don't think scum would have had a strong preference for LC vs. Michelle (maybe there's something I'm missing, I don't actually remember their reads). normally I'd say people off-wagon in V/V wagons are sus but we didn't have anyone off wagon, so. I do think it's weak evidence against an Ash/Poison team since I find it hard to believe that literally all three wolves would stack on Michelle over LC with V/V Michelle and LC.
EoD3 is another interesting one because Hally was one of the two main wagons (and now I feel kind of dumb because I'm pretty sure I was the vote that saved Hally? don't remember for certain). I think this is more evidence against Ash/Hally, Ash's vote legitimately put Hally in danger and I would be surprised if Ash bussed both his teammates back to back for no reason, when he was already (on D3) widely townread post-Tony flip. Epi and Poison are both voting the CW to Hally, I think given how close the vote was that raises the equity of them being teamed with Hally. it might slightly lower the equity of an Epi/Poison team? I don't really see why they both stack on LC there if they're wolves, and separately I think wolves would have seen Hally as a more valuable kill than LC.
EoD4 is V/V wagons again (we should have just killed Epi like I wanted to), again the only off-wagon person is a dead villager. This is maybe slight points against a Hally/Epi team? but their other votes have enough partner equity that I'm not ruling it out. Ash and Poison are voting together again, it's honestly kind of funny at this point? if they're wolves they decided to just always vote together to mess with people, and I don't think I actually believe that.
so to sum up (this is ignoring my actual reads on people)
all theoretical teams
Ash/Hally
Ash/Epi
Ash/Poison
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison
Epi/Poison
teams I think actually make sense from VCA
Ash/Epi
Hally/Epi
Hally/Poison (some things make it unlikely but can't totally rule it out)
Epi/Poison
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
I agree tbh, I don't understand how he is against scum!Hally.
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
Nope. D1 you were super towny, dunya calling you scum is nothing but Could be distancing. That does not make me rule out epi/Hally.
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
Because vul was locked town for everyone, me and nook were not, also vul had better play and theories than us and vul would not get miselimed...
XTMF wrote:Yo Poison, you are fucking dying.
ok it took me a while to find these quotes but I think they're kind of relevant to my Hally read
please stop asking me this. you won’t change your vote regardless of what i say. like, i don’t know. literally. i have no idea. and it doesn’t matter anymore. if you’re town you’ll find out in two hours
I mean, I could see the Wilgy kill. It was either me or him to avoid killing a virused townie, and I was a lot more set on Arete being town.
okAsh Lael wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:40 pmI mean, I could see the Wilgy kill. It was either me or him to avoid killing a virused townie, and I was a lot more set on Arete being town.
But I really struggle to see their interaction as theatre. It's so risky, and Epi has only been half-reading the game. I don't buy him even being present enough to organise something elaborate like that. And I haven't seen Arete wolf but I would be surprised if that was their style either.
And also I just can't see Arete as a wolf independently. If they are and I've been fooled, well... I won't say I'm happy to lose to it, because I'm never happy to lose. But I will concede I have been beaten by a better wolf game than I really thought plausible.