Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:32 pm
MaybeTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:15 pm is there anything directly linking Wilgy and MJ? Or just that they don't really interact
Page 106 of 151
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:36 pm
What #number is this? The link doesn't want to work for meSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:32 pmMaybeTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:15 pm is there anything directly linking Wilgy and MJ? Or just that they don't really interact
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:39 pm
4949. It’s my big rambly night post about wilgy.Carotenoid wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:36 pmWhat #number is this? The link doesn't want to work for meSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:32 pmMaybeTonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:15 pm is there anything directly linking Wilgy and MJ? Or just that they don't really interact
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm
nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pm
I mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pm
Not much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pm
AgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pmNot much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pm
If you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lolSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pmNot much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 pm
Just to state itNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pmIf you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lolSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pmNot much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:08 pm
yeah. dilutes the evidence. Marcher was going down though, hard to say. Did anyone ever bring that up as an argument against him being a wolf?Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:09 pm
I talked about it.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:08 pmyeah. dilutes the evidence. Marcher was going down though, hard to say. Did anyone ever bring that up as an argument against him being a wolf?Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:10 pm
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:42 pmme and lc want your phone number we have a planMarcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:17 pmI’m not a doctor. i’m a fairly weak investigative role that’s only useful in certain situations
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:11 pm
woops didn't mean to post that I'm sorting through TonyStarkPrime - Marcher Jovian ISO
I was thinking I don't understand this post though
I was thinking I don't understand this post though
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:11 pm
Would you say this is a helpful observation orSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 pmJust to state itNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pmIf you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lolSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pmNot much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:20 pm
Yes, or it could at the very least lead somewhere. There is no harm in bringing it up.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:11 pmWould you say this is a helpful observation orSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 pmJust to state itNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pmIf you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lolSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pmNot much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm
nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:22 pm
darn I was gonna scumread whoever said thatSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:09 pmI talked about it.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:08 pmyeah. dilutes the evidence. Marcher was going down though, hard to say. Did anyone ever bring that up as an argument against him being a wolf?Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pmnanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm
it rules out a few worlds.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm
like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 pm
Is wilgy one of them?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:50 pm
Marcher Jovian - TonyStarkPrime interactions
D0 + D1
From TonyStarkPrime ISO
From Marcher Jovian ISO
--> D0, Marcher Jovian find TonyStarkPrime "sorta nullish"
--> D1, Marcher Jovian scumreads them quite strongly and casts a vote early in the phase
--> TonyStarkPrime views the vote and thought process as "bad"
N1 + D2
From TonyStarkPrime ISO
From Marcher Jovian ISO
--> Marcher Jovian goes from TonyStarkPrime w in day 1 to null to whatever the post with a) and b) means
N2 + D3
From TonyStarkPrime ISO
From Marcher Jovian ISO
--> It seems like TonyStarkPrime only starts townreading Marcher Jovian when they are in a bad spot in a really agent the grain feel
--> Marcher Jovian doesn't really mention him again
CONCLUSION
This is weird. TonyStarkPrime-Marcher Jovian were kinda hostile to each other at the beginning. Marcher Jovian dropped this quite quickly for kinda obscure reason but TonyStarkPrime continued. He suddenly started townreading Marcher Jovian during the anti-Sloonei campaign when the majority of the thread thought they were wolf?? The sudden shift in TonyStarkPrime's read of Marcher Jovian is so odd that I don't see it as w/w.
[mention]bronana[/mention] you said that Marcher Jovian hard defended their teammate in the game you checked right?
If it's true, I don't think Marcher Jovian is the kind of player to attack their teammate so harshly early without consultation first. If this was an orchestrated distancing attempt, then I do not understand why Marcher Jovian starts so harshly on TonyStarkPrime and then kinda juste ignore him. It's like TWTBAW distancing attempt
So yeah. I wasn't expecting this, but I don't think TonyStarkPrime is partnered with Marcher Jovian.
D0 + D1
From TonyStarkPrime ISO
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
--> D1, Marcher Jovian scumreads them quite strongly and casts a vote early in the phase
--> TonyStarkPrime views the vote and thought process as "bad"
N1 + D2
From TonyStarkPrime ISO
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
N2 + D3
From TonyStarkPrime ISO
Spoiler: show
Spoiler: show
--> Marcher Jovian doesn't really mention him again
CONCLUSION
This is weird. TonyStarkPrime-Marcher Jovian were kinda hostile to each other at the beginning. Marcher Jovian dropped this quite quickly for kinda obscure reason but TonyStarkPrime continued. He suddenly started townreading Marcher Jovian during the anti-Sloonei campaign when the majority of the thread thought they were wolf?? The sudden shift in TonyStarkPrime's read of Marcher Jovian is so odd that I don't see it as w/w.
[mention]bronana[/mention] you said that Marcher Jovian hard defended their teammate in the game you checked right?
If it's true, I don't think Marcher Jovian is the kind of player to attack their teammate so harshly early without consultation first. If this was an orchestrated distancing attempt, then I do not understand why Marcher Jovian starts so harshly on TonyStarkPrime and then kinda juste ignore him. It's like TWTBAW distancing attempt
So yeah. I wasn't expecting this, but I don't think TonyStarkPrime is partnered with Marcher Jovian.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:10 am
seems like an obvious distancing attempt imo
the team in this game is presumably 4-5 wolves, probably not going to just hard defend all of them. tony was never under much yeet pressure, and tony never voted for marcher when marcher was under yeet pressure. I'm not really buying it
can you please respond to the posts i've made about your read on me
the team in this game is presumably 4-5 wolves, probably not going to just hard defend all of them. tony was never under much yeet pressure, and tony never voted for marcher when marcher was under yeet pressure. I'm not really buying it
can you please respond to the posts i've made about your read on me
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:05 am
could be. I independently tr wilgy.Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 pmIs wilgy one of them?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:07 am
why?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:05 amcould be. I independently tr wilgy.Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 pmIs wilgy one of them?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 0]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:36 am
Back on the ISO train we go.
Marcher & CarotFirst interaction is a generic question. I can make nothing of this yet. It exists.
I might be able to glean something here. There is a moment of miscommunication after what appears to be an attempt by Marcher to shade ted. I would speculate that it's less likely for Marcher to have specifically attempted to shade a civilian in a direct interaction with their partner. Marcher has no reason to present their question about ted in such loaded language if they're dealing with one of their own partners, and I am inclined to read that as more likely being the result of a mafioso who is trying to lead a civilian into a negative read on another civilian; the moment of unclarity here is another favorable sign for Carot. Minor point, but a point nonetheless.
I read this as more of an anti-ted post than a pro-carot post. Reminds me also of some of Marcher's posts about bronana. Not much to say here.
Distinctly pro-carot. Okay.
I am a bit concerned here: Marcher's answer to bronana's question is not easily extracted, and when it does come out it's not a very inspiring read, and also gets walked back a little in the second sentence. It is not impossible to read that as Mafia #1 hastily defending their partner and being ill-prepared to back it up. However, I can also read it as Marcher simply tripping over their words a bit when asked to explain a read. One does not typically frame a civilian read being "caught."
My first reaction is that Marcher doesn't flip out like this if Carot is actually their teammate. I would be inclined to read this as more of a feigned impassioned defense of a civilian in pocketing attempt. But who knows? Marcher also went to frankly ridiculous lengths to... do something to me at the end of Day 3, so they're certainly not averse to huge dramatic reactions to things here. I'd lean favorably on this for carot, but that's not a strong lean.
...Okay... I can't tell if this is a player who feels "caught for the wrong reasons" or a player who is trying to scramble back after over-extending themselves on their partner defense. This post frankly just looks bizarre in hindsight.
I guess the post gives a slight vibe (again) of a player trying to score townie points for an impassioned stand, rather than teammate-defense. After walking it back in the previous post, here Marcher is doubling down on the position that the case against Carot was the problem rather than anything that Carot has done to make them overtly civilian. In that light it reads more as a "You are all bad!" post rather than a "Carot is good" post. But that could also be a nervous response to accidentally associating too hard with their partner.
Nah. If Carot was nervous and trying to dissociate from this position, they wouldn't continue to harp on it like this. I'll continue to lean slightly favor toward this being a good look for Carot. The possibility of Marcher going for a hard WIFOM play can't be totally disregarded, but that would not be my first guess.
This continues for several more posts. Skipping ahead, as I have no new comments on any of it.
Generic softball prompt for reads. Meh.
The top tier of Marcher's reads list is reserved for Carot and nobody else. If these two are partners then Marcher is just totally daring us to bite. Would they be this brazen as a relatively new player in a totally new environment?
Skipping a few more posts I have nothing to say about...
A firm reiteration of the Carot town read. I am starting to lean more comfortably towards saying that Marcher does not spend so much time and energy offering unsolicited praise of their own partner.
Marcher's wet fart post was a response to a pointed question from carot. Probably a good look for our vegetable friend, with the caveat that Marcher was probably being bussed at this point.
Then we enter the frantic "vote Sloonei 2020" phase of Marcher's game. But even with their dying breath, Marcher was making sure we still knew that carot was a town read:Idk what to make of this specifically, but based on the rest of the ISO I'll continue to lean town on Carot.
Carot & MarcherCarot does not take Marcher's anti-ted bait. A good look. I do not think that a pair of mafia partners conspire to fake an interaction which has Partner #1 ask Partner #2 a leading question only for Partner #2 to respond with bland, uninterested dismissal.
Likewise, I can't imagine why a mafia member would feel compelled to make a post like this about their own partner. Either you want to critique their read or you want to approve of it. If carot was asked directly for her take on Marcher's post, I'd feel differently. But this appears to be an unprompted post. More good looks for carot.
I don't know why exactly this is Carot's read, but it's not far out of line with how I felt at the time.
Is it naive to say that some version of this post would belong in team chat rather than in the thread if they were partners?
Marcher is #1 town read. Okay.
Scoffs at the notion of a marcher-nutella-carot scum team, but that objection is more to do with nutella's involvement than anything else, i think.
I have no idea why this read exists. It is wrong. Why does this read exist?
Is it naive to say that mafia carot doesn't go out of their way to single out this post, and then single out marcher within the post it as the lone town read of the bunch?
Y'know, these two are both firmly in each other's corners and I have been leaning in carot's favor on that for most of this exercise, but I have to give voice to the tinfoil theory because it's still lingering as I work through these posts: Marcher expended an inordinate, highly unnecessary and one might say ill-advised, amount of energy shading me at the end of Day 3. Ordinarily a harsh stance like that would be a step toward clearing me, but the volume and tenacity with which Marcher pursued that push makes it so obviously staged that people have been legitimately questioning it. Could we be seeing a similar thing here, inverted, with their partner in Carot? They're both going above and beyond the level that I'd typically expect of two mafia partners defending one another, but there is evidence for Marcher going above and beyond elsewhere in this very thread. I dunno. I 'd still say carot is town, but this possibility exists too.
again.
Carot is enamored with Marcher's excuse to suspect Turnip Head. Okay.
More of the same.
Carot abruptly acknowledges Marcher as a viable suspect as part of a specific hypothetical team. I'm not sure why these five names were given the stamp of carot approval.
This is not an unreasonable observation, and I was the one who officially put the conversation about ted catching marcher to bed (or at least I claim credit for it because of my enormous ego), so I don't object.
This read/progression is not too dissimilar to my own early on Day 3. There remains a distinct possibility that the mafia team decided it was time to cut Marcher loose at this stage, in which case I could view this sharp turn in an unfavorable light. But the tinfoil suspicion I've mentioned previously is not strengthened by this, really. It's not weakened either. The needle doesn't move much.
I like this well enough at face value, though see the caveat about potential bussing.
tl;dr - Carotenoid - There is one very specific tinfoil theory to consider here, but otherwise this looks like a comfortable town lean. The tinfoil is just strong enough to hold me back though. Even with that being the case, I would lean in Carot's favor. Both Carot and Marcher spent a lot of time saying nice things about each other, in such a way that goes beyond what I would normally expect from a pair of partners defending one another. The argument against Carot relies on both of these players having gone for a WIFOM-fueled gambit, which is a suspicion I would ordinarily reject if not for Marcher's EoD3 being such a WIFOM factory. But that was a hail mary play, and I have no reason to believe that Marcher would have been chucking up hail mary's from the first quarter on. So Carot's probably town, with just enough doubt wedged in my brain for me to call it a slam dunk. I'm mixing sports like crazy here, that's an unforced error.
Marcher & Carot
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My first reaction is that Marcher doesn't flip out like this if Carot is actually their teammate. I would be inclined to read this as more of a feigned impassioned defense of a civilian in pocketing attempt. But who knows? Marcher also went to frankly ridiculous lengths to... do something to me at the end of Day 3, so they're certainly not averse to huge dramatic reactions to things here. I'd lean favorably on this for carot, but that's not a strong lean.
Spoiler: show
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I guess the post gives a slight vibe (again) of a player trying to score townie points for an impassioned stand, rather than teammate-defense. After walking it back in the previous post, here Marcher is doubling down on the position that the case against Carot was the problem rather than anything that Carot has done to make them overtly civilian. In that light it reads more as a "You are all bad!" post rather than a "Carot is good" post. But that could also be a nervous response to accidentally associating too hard with their partner.Spoiler: show
Nah. If Carot was nervous and trying to dissociate from this position, they wouldn't continue to harp on it like this. I'll continue to lean slightly favor toward this being a good look for Carot. The possibility of Marcher going for a hard WIFOM play can't be totally disregarded, but that would not be my first guess.This continues for several more posts. Skipping ahead, as I have no new comments on any of it.
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Skipping a few more posts I have nothing to say about...
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Then we enter the frantic "vote Sloonei 2020" phase of Marcher's game. But even with their dying breath, Marcher was making sure we still knew that carot was a town read:
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Carot & Marcher
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Y'know, these two are both firmly in each other's corners and I have been leaning in carot's favor on that for most of this exercise, but I have to give voice to the tinfoil theory because it's still lingering as I work through these posts: Marcher expended an inordinate, highly unnecessary and one might say ill-advised, amount of energy shading me at the end of Day 3. Ordinarily a harsh stance like that would be a step toward clearing me, but the volume and tenacity with which Marcher pursued that push makes it so obviously staged that people have been legitimately questioning it. Could we be seeing a similar thing here, inverted, with their partner in Carot? They're both going above and beyond the level that I'd typically expect of two mafia partners defending one another, but there is evidence for Marcher going above and beyond elsewhere in this very thread. I dunno. I 'd still say carot is town, but this possibility exists too.Spoiler: show
again.Spoiler: show
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tl;dr - Carotenoid - There is one very specific tinfoil theory to consider here, but otherwise this looks like a comfortable town lean. The tinfoil is just strong enough to hold me back though. Even with that being the case, I would lean in Carot's favor. Both Carot and Marcher spent a lot of time saying nice things about each other, in such a way that goes beyond what I would normally expect from a pair of partners defending one another. The argument against Carot relies on both of these players having gone for a WIFOM-fueled gambit, which is a suspicion I would ordinarily reject if not for Marcher's EoD3 being such a WIFOM factory. But that was a hail mary play, and I have no reason to believe that Marcher would have been chucking up hail mary's from the first quarter on. So Carot's probably town, with just enough doubt wedged in my brain for me to call it a slam dunk. I'm mixing sports like crazy here, that's an unforced error.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:36 am
Maybe the wolves are all spread out, one to a team, and they decided to go after jovians triumvirate because he was going down and they wanted to keep their own tris strong.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:11 pmWould you say this is a helpful observation orSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:06 pmJust to state itNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:05 pmIf you agree why are you bringing it up as a counterpoint lolSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:04 pmAgreedNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:03 pmNot much downside to it at that point thoSloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:52 pmI mean we already know they were willing to kill within marcher’s triumvirate.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:43 pm
nanook was talking about this earlier. scum want to boost their stats, want to kill in all town tris. If they care about mechanics. It's what the KZA kill looks good for you, with two down in the tri scum would be substantially weakening their options. So I'm looking for deviations in a normal kill pattern based on game mechanics in order to make reads here
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:38 am
Not getting on the counterwagon for one, w/w wants easy cred, no? His progressions seem natural enough, not getting on a triumvirate day 1 is interesting, I find most of the reasons to vote for him to be manufactured.Sloonei wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:07 amwhy?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:05 amcould be. I independently tr wilgy.Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:25 pmIs wilgy one of them?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:23 pm like basically it means wolves weren't all in on wilgy day 3, which is established
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 2]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:57 am
how many wolves do you think are outside the nulls?Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:22 pm town
carotenoid
townlean
bronana
kza
moth
nanook
nutella
tedxtr
null
drwilgy
dunya
Long Con
MacDougall
motobot
outed wolf
Sloonei
Soneji
TonyStarkPrime
wolflean
lissa
TurnipHead
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 1]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:07 am
Marcher & dunya
First real mention of dunya in Marcher's ISO comes fairly late, and it's only an incidental mention in a post that is meant to shade Lissa.
They disagree about ted. This interaction doesn't tell me much about dunya/marcher, but I will not that Marcher's reaction to ted is a bit revealing: they were, at least initially, harshly anti-ted in response to his case. That may be revealing when it comes to Marcher's handling of pressure in general. They also accused me of pocketing-then-dropping them when I started to become suspicious.
Gut instinct is that this feels like a good look for dunya, but there's not enough here for me to run with that.
Blunt dismissal and suspicion of dunya. Probably a good look.
I have no basis for this claim, but I feel like quick successive inquires like this don't happen between mafia partners. I think generally partners are more inclined not to interact directly in the thread unless they're pursuing some specific plan or forced into it. These posts are totally casual and do not amount to much. If there was just one of them then I would not feel this way (a generic fluff post between partners here and there will always be a thing). But these are consecutive posts in Marcher's ISO, ~15 minutes apart, and both are unremarkable, straightforward questions for dunya. Slightly favorable look.
Dunya and I are accused of pocketing. Do teammates accuse one another of pocketing? Idk. Maybe? I don't feel particularly bad about this, and the language of Marcher's post feels like the kind of opportunistic shading of a wolf going after a potential paranoia target in three-games-at-once dunya.
Dunya is in the top half of Marcher's big pile of nothing. Okay.
I feel like neither of these posts exist if these two are partners. Dunya's post is too casual about her Marcher suspicion to strike me as bussing. Marcher's response is harsh in a way that suggests genuine annoyance about something, though I can't really say what.
The quick follow-up post suggests that Marcher felt the first one lacked commitment. So are they trying to distance from a partner, or sell a phony suspicion on a civilian? My gut tells me the latter based on previous posts.
dunya is afraid to bus a teammate, for what it's worth.
This feels like an organic exchange. That would be a good look for dunya as well.
I don't think this is partners.
Okay yeah this is not partners.
I'm gonna cut this short and post it now because allergies are making my eyes water and it's uncomfortable to sit here reading and reacting to a ton of posts right now. I may resume later, but it's 2 AM all of a sudden.
Dunya - I'd confidently say that these two are not partners. I have not looked at the other side of the interactions yet, though, so I'll refrain from awarding dunya with a much-coveted dark green for now. But I think a vote for dunya would be ill-advised.
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The quick follow-up post suggests that Marcher felt the first one lacked commitment. So are they trying to distance from a partner, or sell a phony suspicion on a civilian? My gut tells me the latter based on previous posts.dunya is afraid to bus a teammate, for what it's worth.
Spoiler: show
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I'm gonna cut this short and post it now because allergies are making my eyes water and it's uncomfortable to sit here reading and reacting to a ton of posts right now. I may resume later, but it's 2 AM all of a sudden.
Dunya - I'd confidently say that these two are not partners. I have not looked at the other side of the interactions yet, though, so I'll refrain from awarding dunya with a much-coveted dark green for now. But I think a vote for dunya would be ill-advised.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:11 am
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:32 pm [VOTE: MacDougall] aubergine go do things. Give me like a top 3 / bottom 3 reads.
Suddenly brings up Mac with this pretty harshly worded read then never mentions him again.Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:10 pm top 3:
bronana-I don't think mafia keeps pushing me like this. It's a townie tunnel.
carotenoid- I've kinda just conceded and conf-biased myself into not reevaling this slot til lylo. Checked the iso and it only strengthened my convictions
nutella- Feeling townie vibes from her recent postings
bottom 3:
Lissa- Bleedingly opportunistic in jumping onto my wagon and her push on me
outed wolf- said he'd ramp up and deliver reads and stuff overnight. did not deliver
Mac- has done absolutely nothing all game and we're just letting it keep going?
Pretty sure Mac is a wolf.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:13 am
[VOTE:
MacDougall ] aubergine
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:14 am
[VOTE:
macdougall] aubergine
i like the feel of this
i like the feel of this
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 3]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:16 am
Never mentions long con again -- doesn't feel like a genuine reaction.MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:30 pmyeah ok cfd long con lmao
Also if you look at the most recent posts in Mac's iso it almost reads like he is lolcatting tbh.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:26 am
Honestly I can rather easily see the opposite perspective you have of a lot of those dunya interactions
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 1]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:39 am
Checked his iso, Mac wasn't around EOD1. Was around EOD2 and from how it went down, I think Mac + Wilgy as wolves make a lot of sense. Hell, throw in Tony. I think it's also possible Carot is a wolf - Tony and Mac were not around EOD1, Wilgy made sure to vote Radishes. It's possible Marcher was channeling some very real frustration at how close carot came to being yeeted afterwards. Now that I say, it actually makes a ton of sense.bronana wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:10 am
Anyone taking issue with me coloring my own name in green, sorry but I made this mostly as a reference for myself.
Day 3 not very useful yet but here:
Spoiler: show
- Mac hasn't seemed to really give a shit about the wagons, off-wagon on his Lissa/Sloonei thing d1 and d3. But he did vote Turnip d2. Possibly implies, if a wolf, he's paired with Wilgy but not Carot. Would be a bit careless.
Then they all pretty much teamed up to kill the doctor d2 over Wilgy.
Wolves voting as a bloc, I respect it a lot. Even now I think people will be skeptical of what I'm laying down because they think wolves wouldn't vote together so clearly, but i dunno man. That grouping makes a LOT of sense. And frankly I am not seeing very many candidates for wolves outside of that bloc. Except cayvie, perhaps. And I'm still a little wary of Sloonei I guess, but Mac probably does not tunnel him liek that as w/w lol. Maybe I should actually even take out Tony for cayvie.
Marcher / Mac / Wilgy / Carot / {cayvie or TonyStark}
Possibly getting ahead of myself here but thoughts?
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:42 am
Feels pretty right though.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:43 am
Oh, Long Con should probably be included as a possibility.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:45 am
How well do you [lissa/bronana/outed wolf] know each other? Pretty well, a bit, friendly acquaintances, etc.?
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:47 am
Extremely well. We've played a lot of games together. Hell, I've been playing with Visor for almost a decade now.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:45 am How well do you [lissa/bronana/outed wolf] know each other? Pretty well, a bit, friendly acquaintances, etc.?
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:47 am
why not motobot lol
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:48 am
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:50 am
Should’ve phrased better, sorrybronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:47 amExtremely well. We've played a lot of games together. Hell, I've been playing with Visor for almost a decade now.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:45 am How well do you [lissa/bronana/outed wolf] know each other? Pretty well, a bit, friendly acquaintances, etc.?
How well do you read each other? Familiarity doesn’t always translate to readability unfortunately
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:51 am
I actually hosted the first game of mafia visor ever played (it was a dogshit setup lol)bronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:47 amExtremely well. We've played a lot of games together. Hell, I've been playing with Visor for almost a decade now.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:45 am How well do you [lissa/bronana/outed wolf] know each other? Pretty well, a bit, friendly acquaintances, etc.?
Lissa and I were wolfbros on my first real game on mu (also a dogshit setup lol)
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:52 am
In a related question what’s your outed wolf read
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:54 am
Cause tbh I’m pretty close to just saying all three of you are town and ignoring it and blaming whomever of you is town if that’s wrong lolol
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:56 am
Eh? a lot of those games are turbos are mashes which aren't super applicable to normal gamesNANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:50 amShould’ve phrased better, sorrybronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:47 amExtremely well. We've played a lot of games together. Hell, I've been playing with Visor for almost a decade now.NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:45 am How well do you [lissa/bronana/outed wolf] know each other? Pretty well, a bit, friendly acquaintances, etc.?
How well do you read each other? Familiarity doesn’t always translate to readability unfortunately
It used to be a meme that lissa always townread wolf visor, but I don't think that's as much of a thing anymore
lissa and I pmuch always defend each other as v/v, but have also had games where we got pocketed hard by the other. Partly because we tend to just think about the game in very similar ways.
I think Visor is a good lissa reader, it's why I asked him about her early. But not perfect. If she was wolfing and he wasn't, he'd probably have caught it by now
I honestly don't remember the last time Visor was a wolf in a game with me where I was not also a wolf. Chess Mafia on POG in 2016? Is that really it? wow. anyway I think we reach other decently well, though again not perfectly. Both quick to paranoia on the other, but also plenty of games where we were quick to villabro it up.
I really don't think Lissa is a wolf. I suppose visor (outed wolf) could be, but seems unlikely at this point.
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:58 am
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:54 am Cause tbh I’m pretty close to just saying all three of you are town and ignoring it and blaming whomever of you is town if that’s wrong lolol
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:59 am
I’m independently TRing Lissa but that’s based on a sample size of one in a team game so it’s not particularly useful
But I’m pretending it is and using that read to just clear all three of you lulz
I have like 8 town now this is great
But I’m pretending it is and using that read to just clear all three of you lulz
I have like 8 town now this is great
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 4]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:00 am
And there’s probably only two wolves in that eight 
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 1]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:04 am
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:28 pmted: scumSloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:22 pmWhat’s your read on ted?Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:17 pmI want Lissa to answerSloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:16 pm @Marcher JovianSloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:45 pmDo you mind sharing your thoughts in this or would you prefer that Lissa answer first?Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:30 pmI don't like this response. It feels really wishy-washy "I am neutral and have no strong opinions one way or the other".
@Lissa
Out of:
town/town
nutella wolf
sloonei wolf
scum/scum
where are you leaning right now. I don't care if you want to qualify it by saying it's only by the razor-thinnest of margins. just tell me where your head's at right now.
What’s your read on bronana?
bronana: town
Feels like Marcher is interacting with a villager here.Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:41 pmted started out just reading the thread, meming with a few gifs at stuff, and peacing out. Then there was a brief period where ted was doing stuff. now ted's just tunneling me for bad reasons and is ignoring anything else. no one really wants to vote out the tunneler. they'll just say "oh it's town but wrong" and if he gets his way and I flip they're more likely to look at the bandwagoners than at ted himself. It's an easy strategy that'll end up with ted spewing nothing, avoiding talking about half the game, and safely getting through probably at least the first 2 days with limited suspicion.
bronana: like the questions he's asking, they're ones I would have asked ones I wish I would have asked
Re: Pyre Mafia [Day 1]
Posted: Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:05 am
by wolves voting as a bloc are you just referring to the 3 who moved onto sloonei in your spoilered part? i've been reading this post over and trying to figure out what you're talking about but also im on like no sleep so im probably missing something obviousbronana wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:39 amChecked his iso, Mac wasn't around EOD1. Was around EOD2 and from how it went down, I think Mac + Wilgy as wolves make a lot of sense. Hell, throw in Tony. I think it's also possible Carot is a wolf - Tony and Mac were not around EOD1, Wilgy made sure to vote Radishes. It's possible Marcher was channeling some very real frustration at how close carot came to being yeeted afterwards. Now that I say, it actually makes a ton of sense.bronana wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:10 am
Anyone taking issue with me coloring my own name in green, sorry but I made this mostly as a reference for myself.
Day 3 not very useful yet but here:
Spoiler: show
- Mac hasn't seemed to really give a shit about the wagons, off-wagon on his Lissa/Sloonei thing d1 and d3. But he did vote Turnip d2. Possibly implies, if a wolf, he's paired with Wilgy but not Carot. Would be a bit careless.
Then they all pretty much teamed up to kill the doctor d2 over Wilgy.
Wolves voting as a bloc, I respect it a lot. Even now I think people will be skeptical of what I'm laying down because they think wolves wouldn't vote together so clearly, but i dunno man. That grouping makes a LOT of sense. And frankly I am not seeing very many candidates for wolves outside of that bloc. Except cayvie, perhaps. And I'm still a little wary of Sloonei I guess, but Mac probably does not tunnel him liek that as w/w lol. Maybe I should actually even take out Tony for cayvie.
Marcher / Mac / Wilgy / Carot / {cayvie or TonyStark}
Possibly getting ahead of myself here but thoughts?