The Syndicate

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:55 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:54 pm

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:32 pm I told u guys spf was rly good wolf but yall like nooo nooo spf lock town

Well now that weve seen her scum game NO MORE FREE TOWN READS

dont let that distract u from the fact that u should still give TUTUU FREE TOWNREADS because u havent seen her scum game

Have a headpat! *pats head*

sorry for misreading u, u deserve 100 headpats!!!!

tutuu wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:32 pm I told u guys spf was rly good wolf but yall like nooo nooo spf lock town

Well now that weve seen her scum game NO MORE FREE TOWN READS

dont let that distract u from the fact that u should still give TUTUU FREE TOWNREADS because u havent seen her scum game

Dyslexicon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:08 pm A few mod notes:

* Thank you all so much for playing! ^^
* It's understandable that some didn't like the potential F5 solution. I'm a bit whatever about it myself, as the one time it came down to it we did manage to get both mafia in the grasslands. Mafia also don't want to out themselves in that scenario. I'm sure it can be fixed, but I was not going to change anything midway, as I've had bad experiences with a mod doing that before. And I also didn't worry about it, cause I knew it wouldn't become a problem in this game lol. However, asking the mod to change the setup in game should be avoided in the future. I think that's pretty angelshoot-y, so I don't hope to see that in the future. Again, issues around setups should be taken privately with the mod. Complain to me, not in the thread.
* It was kind of funny to see how mafia always RNG-ed who they sent to the grasslands as the third option, and town immediately came up with all sorts of reasons for why mafia did it. That is mafia in a nutshell. =p
* Special shoutout to Thunal. This was your first game on Cindy Kate, and your reads and observations were super on point this game! PerC town too stronk.
* Congrats to all of town being able to coordinate and win. Well done! It was fun to watch.

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:11 pm im sorry im dumb and stupid and bad at mafia im sorry im sorry im

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:25 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:08 am Not sure if I’ll be back for EOD or not, putting a vote on thunal

And one on tutu, to make sure mafia have to put her in grasslands if they want her there.

Also like. The fuck is this. Are you still hoping for a chance of spf going so you can nk me? Why this weird comment about tutuu

[VOTE: spf] aubergine just to avoid nonsense

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:25 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:08 am Not sure if I’ll be back for EOD or not, putting a vote on thunal

And one on tutu, to make sure mafia have to put her in grasslands if they want her there.

Also like. The fuck is this. Are you still hoping for a chance of spf going so you can nk me? Why this weird comment about tutuu

[VOTE: spf] aubergine just to avoid nonsense

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:21 pm Spf won't be back before deadline will she goddamn it

nutella wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:18 pm Wait good case let's elim nanook

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:37 pm i hope nutella comes lol we need to clarify if we're following the alphabetical plan or not because if there is a miscommunication we might gamethrow since f3 goes to quick topic

if she doesnt come i guess i'll need to ping the dead towns for her and i hate making decisions

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:41 pm wait actually is there a day phase in f3 before grasslands? idk why i assumed there isnt. hmm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:32 pm Blind Interactions



For those who don't already know, green blocks reflect pairings that I don't think look likely to be mafia teammates. Yellow blocks refer to pairings that I think could be; I have no good reason to say otherwise. Orange refers to a pairing that I found particularly compatible.

I only ended up with one orange, so if you want to be conservative you can just call it yellow and end up with a binary yes/no chart.

As usual I don't have dedicated notes for all of this. I did poke at a tiny bit as I went through it in my previous handful of posts. I don't want to spam the game with mass analysis. If you have questions about any pairing here, ask me. I will try to answer if I have time. I might not. If I can't answer, then dig into the interaction for yourself and see how you feel.

A few notes:

~ Nanook being an ocean of yellow is unsurprising. He has the fewest posts and hasn't done a whole lot in the way of pushing any kind of game solving. So he's compatible with everyone.

~ Long Con and Martin are the only orange in a way that kind of recalls Jack/Michelle in the Finale (Martin in particular made a few mentions of LC that struck me as a bit forced or unnecessary. I realize Jack/Michelle was wrong, but whatever -- it's orange anyway. View it for yourselves and come to your own conclusions.

~ I struggle to clearly remove a POE name or suspect from the pool with this chart as I often want to. The closest I can come is Thunal, who would be compatible per my judgments only with Nanook, SPF, and nutella (which would be a good look overall for Thunal if at least two of those three are town).

~ Most importantly about Thunal, I think he doesn't fit with Sloonei. This should have important implications for Alison's view of the game, and I look forward to hearing what she thinks about that.

~ Sloonei fits precisely with the POE and naught else. So the case against Sloonei can be described as "easy game versus not easy game". Your mileage may vary given what you think of that. Alison is in a very similar position, which makes the emerging "dichotomy" between those two especially important. They don't have to be a dichotomy, but I am kind of feeling that way.

~ For some reason I couldn't find it within myself to clear nutella on numerous interactions even when she had a lot to say about people. I don't know what to make of that. I might not make anything of it. She covers a lot of ground in her solving style a la the rabbits of the world. The same can be said to a lesser degree for Hally.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Most important takeaways for me: Thunal might be the best look if anyone is, and her relationship with Sloonei and Alison might be good starting points from which a coherent view of the game can be constructed.

tutuu wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:17 am [VOTE: Thunal33] aubergine

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:52 pm I mean unless it’s just tutu I have a misclear somewhere

Cause my POE was alison/sloonei/tutu...alison being NKed points towards me potentially having a misclear somewhere

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:55 pm Well, I did the thing that nobody really wants to do but I have to do - towncase myself.

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:05 pm how did thunal interact with long con?

i like thunal bringing up suspicion/paranoia toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675408#p675408 - this was at a point when the suspicion on long con was low, and i don't see why thunal would feel incentivized to throw shade on her partner like that

i get a similar feeling from viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675604#p675604 - thunal put LC low in her POE even at a point when long con was not a popular chop option by any means. if thunal is mafia with LC then it means that she bussed early and she bussed aggressively

once again, thunal goes out of her way to bring attention to long con slipping under the radar on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676986#p676986 and viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676994#p676994. this was at a point when jagged/alison were arguing and when there were a lot of other viable pushes besides long con. thunal is constantly going: "hey, look at long con! he's scummy!" when she would have zero reason to do that as his partner

how did long con interact with thunal?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677026#p677026 is notable because it's one of the only times during the game where long con directly answers a question & tries to justify his own actions - gth this reflects nicely on thunal, because it feels like long con is trying to appease her/evade thunal pushing on her suspicions further

lc didn't have any other notable interactions with thunal beyond lightly townreading her on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677061#p677061

the only interaction that i find slightly suspicious is long con throwing out thunal's name in a weirdly uncomfortable/unnatural way on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677035#p677035 - i can't figure out why lc chose to throw shade on thunal in that moment, especially since the rest of his attitude toward her was just buddying

conclusion: i was honestly a little suspicious of thunal before i did this analysis, but i'm feeling a lot better about her alignment now. the interactions between thunal/long con consistently point to thunal being town, and i find it unlikely that she went out of her way to hardbus her partner on d1

Just bumping this and bringing it to people's attention - not much explanation needed here.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:25 pm Sloonei/LC stuff:

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:59 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:35 pm @Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:02 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:59 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:35 pm @Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

So this is literally just “Sloonei is mafia because everyone else says so”?

LC's read on Sloonei feels distinctly fake and for quite bad reasons. He either doesn't have actual reasons to push Sloonei since he's town or he's pulling a Sheppard and making an intentionally bad justification for why Sloonei is scum so he doesn't have to push Sloonei to the degree where others could be convinced. Sloonei's response seems lackluster. He doesn't give an additional take on LC's alignment from it which is something I think a townie would do in that scenario. I also feel like Sloonei might be more vocal about why the reasoning is bad if they were W/T.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:00 am I also don't like his insistence that I am scum. I don't think he is considering the alternative in the slightest.

I always am. I’ve named you as a suspect several times, but that doesn’t mean my mind is made up on anything at all. I have not seen you do anything that screams town at me.

Who should we send to the grasslands today?

At first glance this seemed like a pretty neutral post, but Sloonei's "who should we send to the grasslands today?" question is ever so slightly scum indicative imo since he could be trying to get an inactive teammate to engage and get themselves out of the PoE. Again projecting onto myself, I know I've done that tactic quite a bit as scum with teammates.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:21 pm [VOTE: alsion] aubergine
[VOTE: long con] aubergine
[VOTE: martin] aubergine

I don't have a strong preference among these three. I am surprised at my own Martin vote. His response to me in the big wall post of his just now struck me oddly, so it's a bit of a kneejerk/GTH vote. Maybe that's unfair to him. Idk.

If this was a typical game with only one vote, I think I would be going for Alison, but I have been absent for most of the latter part of this phase and will be absent for the remainder of it. I trust you all to pick the right one out of these three.

Thunal is town.

Sorry to be such a dud this phase. I don't like it.

I get the feeling Sloonei would vote like this (meaning, voting for anyone he suspects) regardless of alignment. The analysis I did (which is very limited since I just searched "Long Con" in Sloonei's ISO to find these posts) points slightly to Sloonei being scum. His push on LC seemed pretty weak and LC's push on Sloonei seemed pretty weak.

This is my push on Sloonei from Sloonei/LC interactions. My pushes aren't this well-reasoned and detailed as scum. For anyone who saw me in anni, my Xalt push amounted to "he's outed scum! Why? I don't know." and while I can justify thoughts more than that as scum, I don't have the same depth to my analyses as I do as town.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:59 pm I've been thinking we should give Nutella the gun today instead of SPF. I think SPF is probably town with the way she thought out all those interaction analyses in a way that makes sense and that both me and Nutella agree with, but Nutella is the clearest person in the game and the most obvious NK. A doc save on her would be really useful.

This is a completely suboptimal play as scum since Nut is clearer than SPF. The only reason I would ever do this as scum would be if I had a special motivation to kill SPF, and obviously that's not the case since SPF is alive.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:57 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:11 pm
I was thinking that because Sloonei was the next person in the PoE. As the next person in the PoE scum!Sloonei and his scummates wouldn't be happy with the consensus. However, if Sloonei was town and scum knew they were heading towards a mislim on Carotte that set the groundwork for another mislim on Sloonei they would be quite happy with the consensus.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:52 pm
okay. this actually does make sense and is a good answer. i’m struggling with the same thing. his posts aren’t bad but they’re also not good, and i’m similarly left wondering if that’s AI or just due to him being worn out

your point that people are often suspicious of him for bad reasons is valid but doesn’t really resonate with me personally because when we were town together in SF3 i was never suspicious of him. i think he did get suspicion thrown at him early on that game but i could never make myself see him as anything but a villager and he remained my strongest tr along with spf right up to the end. i felt similarly about him in the finals, though i obviously had the benefit of tmi that game. but even still, none if the accusations levied at him throughout the game ever made any sense to me. he seemed unimpeachably towny to me and i think it’s because he has a process that i do resonate with. in sf3 he remarked that he felt he saw the game through the same lens as me and i felt that too. this game it hasn’t clicked like that yet for me. i still feel something is missing

anyway, thank you for the response. it’s helpful

This part actually does look a little towny from Hally, but this post as a whole made me more suspicious of them overall for reasons I'll get into at the end of this post. Hally's listening to JJJ but I think that might be because they think JJJ would pick up on if Hally wasn't listening since they were in finals together.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:52 pm i don’t follow this at all. it sounds like you’re more just saying you want to eliminate her for information/because it will help you going forward to know her alignment. but why is she mafia? also your point that she’s gone after a lot of people isn’t really true. she’s really only ever hard pushed thun and sloonei. she clearly is not trying to scum read as many people as possible. and what do you mean, “all she’s doing is making points”? what is bad about that?

this whole post is very confusing. i have no idea what you’re trying to say

Sure, there's a line of questioning here but it's sprinked with "your points don't make sense and are confusing." The questions are more to poke holes in the argument than actual open minded or solving questions. This is suspicious from Hally, more on that later.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:28 pm
That makes some sense - I was struggling to reason what the benefit would be to scum!Alison to keep pushing me this much. She didn't push me anywhere near this much when I was wolf and she was SK. But wanting to keep me and Sloonei out of the towncore would be beneficial if she was scum (especially if Sloonei is town).

how does that make sense? alison has suspects. her suspects are you and sloonei. why is her having two suspects scummy? like, obviously regardless of her alignment she doesn’t want her suspects to be in the town core. that’s the literal definition of a suspect. how is it any different from you or anyone else who has suspects? couldn’t you say that sloonei is trying to keep alison out of the town core by suspecting her? or you are? or jay is? because that makes as much sense to me as what you say here (read: zero)

like, i think you’re confbiasing to fit what you want your reads to be. this argument that martin is making about why alison is scum is not good. your argument about why sloonei is town is not good. they just aren’t valid arguments. that doesn’t mean the reads are wrong necessarily but please try to consider if the arguments themselves actually make any sense

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:39 pm
I feel like eliminating in the non universally TRed people is more strategic for today since it gives more info - and I don't think I could successfully case and push for an elim on any of the players I mentioned since my reasons to suspect them are admittedly thin. It's more "could be scum" and for Hally, it's "not out of their scum range." Hally is the most likely out of the three names I have since they have some small things in their play I found suspicious - their complete 180 on Carotte when they got to the grasslands, even though well explained, I could easily see scum motivation for. They're not posting the same way I'm used to seeing from them, meaning that they're not posting as much and they're not as pushy as I've seen them as either alignment. They're blending in which I find unusual for them but it could be because they have less time to play because of their job. Also they didn't pay attention to my deepwolf suspicion on them which I feel scum!Hally is more likely to do than town!Hally. Hally I have some reasons for. Tutuu and Nutella are more "I don't TR them as strongly as the other townread people."

what is the scum motivation for 180ing on carotte? like, actually. what did that get me if im mafia?

also i don’t really feel im blending in. im posting what i can with the time i have. i thought i was quite pushy with carotte and she ended up being town. now it’s harder to find concrete scum reads. also your point about my number of posts is kinda silly. most of my posts are multiquote catch ups so that i can be sure i save posts for real timing. if you were to break up my multiquotes into individual posts, my post count would be higher. would that make me more likely town? like, why does this matter to you?

also the reason why i haven’t addressed your tinfoil on me is because there’s nothing to address. atm it’s just “hally isn’t out of their scum range.” that’s not a substantive suspicion that i can respond to. i did respond in detail to your point about my 180 on carotte though, so it’s wrong to say i’ve ignored your suspicion on me. everything else has just been paranoia that’s not grounded in anything other than your fear of my scum game. it’s the same thing every game and i’m more than used to it by now, so it’s not something i actually care about, sorry

I've read this post and at this point I can only see scum!Hally making it. My tinfoil deepwolf suspicion has turned into very real suspicion. The blue is a clear attempt to discredit me. I've townread Hally in nearly all the games I've played with them. This isn't even close to being true.

And now we come to the main reason I really suspect Hally right now: They're not listening! Finals Hally literally admitted to shutting down Dya's arguments when they would definitely have listened to Dya as town. I've played a lot of games with Hally. We have quite a bit of history and they usually value my opinion a great deal. Even when I was a flipped wolf in Bastard Fiesta town!Hally took my suspects into consideration to try to find the 3p. As town Hally doesn't take one of their top townreads and say "your arguments make no sense" and "I completely disagree" to everything I'm saying. They would care about my input more than this. They're shutting down Martin too. This is a very good reenactment of what Hally did in finals and nothing like what town!Hally's process is. Oh, and this only makes me more confident that Sloonei is town and Alison is scum because my reads aren't convenient to scum!Hally right now.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:09 am [VOTE: Hally] aubergine

I don't think I'm ever going to want to change this.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:19 am This is simply not how town!Hally acts towards me. Even when they suspected me (correctly) in Bastard Fiesta they still asked me questions that were open minded (not pointed), valued my opinion, and reevaluated their read on me multiple times. They care about my opinion even more when they townread me and certainly wouldn't shut down all my arguments without taking any of them into consideration.

Long Con wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:29 pm I don't think Hally did anything wrong, certainly not "causing chaos". I was surprised to look at the poll and suddenly see so many votes, but that's about it. It makes sense. I didn't like tutuu and Alison causing an uproar about it.

I support the SPF initiative. Should I put a vote on everyone but her? Or just Nanook?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:43 pm Thunal-on-Carotte is the weirdest thing in the game so far.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:39 am

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:28 am I don't get the commotion about Sloonei tbh, I believe that he believes in his read. :P

Me neither tbh, I looked at Sloonei's ISO and the only suspicious thing I could find is a coffee tell ish thing about him posting 2 posts in a row about being distracted and tired but that's really tiny. His read on Nutella looks fine to me. I'll wait for his thoughts in the morning to actually try to read him. In champs finals (which is the only time I've seen him play) he definitely tried hard and was logical but he didn't have the same obvious town energy that, say, SPF or JJJ did so it might be hard to read him.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:17 am

Carotenoid wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:15 am I like Thunal more today.

I'm not sure if everyone understands that the person sent to the grassland only gets to shoot *among* the persons in the grassland? (most voted, least voted, sent by scum)

I think tutuu & nutella are town. I liked Nanook/SPF/nova/LC/JJJ with no particular order.

I have some mixed feelings about Alison. I think that the only thing I really disliked is how she asked Hally why I wasn't on their read list (I thought it was pretty evident that they jsut didn't have a read on me) and then not really followed up when Hally answered that they didn't have a read yet.

What do you think town!Alison would follow up that read with? I don't follow up on every question that I ask that's been answered in a light game since I don't want to waste a post saying "oh, okay" if that would be my answer.

A fairly uneventful back-and-forth between them. Thunal doesn't have much to say about Carot, but carot town-reads Thunal.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:12 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:25 am I ran through Thunal's posts to check out my town-inclined intuition. I like the progressions/language of their reads. I have one question for @Thunal33: any suspects? You've given town credit to Martin, Alison, nutella, and Hally (perhaps among others if I missed them). I appreciate POE work; I just don't know your game. Perhaps you can chirp in too @Hally -- do you associate that kind of POE-centric methodology with Thunal?

Yes, I tend to make townreads first and it's hard for me to find suspects early on. I mainly have Sloonei as "not a townread or townlean" rather than a suspect, same with Carotte.

Thunal gives a fairly hedgy read on Carotte, in conjunction with Sloonei. This is Thunal making a direct statement related to the alignment of the player he identifies as "Carotte". It is not pointedly negative, but it is also very distinctly not a positive read either. "Not positive" would be the primary takeaway here in my opinion.

Spoiler: show

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:28 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:20 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:09 pm why carotte?

Primarily process of elimination with a pinch of I don't think she looks very comfortable.

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:09 pm why have i dropped down for you?

It's less that you've "dropped" than those four have become more solidified civilian reads. Gun to my head you're town too. If I have one gripe for you it's that I don't know that you've been fair in your assessment of my treatment of Sloonei. I said myself that I wanted to let him speak for himself. You asked me a specific question though, and I did you the courtesy of answering it -- so to say that I have given him an out somehow on that basis is a bit goofy.

Also, how can I find Carotte's posts? I wanted to ISO her but I 'm having a hard time finding her posts in the thread. Is there an easier way to find a post of hers so I can ISO?

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:35 pm Oops I didn't realize Carotte was Carotenoid, I thought Carotte was a completely different player. I think Carotte looks okay so far, I like that she reevaluated on me. I have more of a "wait and see" read on both her and Sloonei, I think they'll become more readable later on.

But then he reveals that the player he was identifying as Carotte doesn't actually exist: he didn't realize that "Carotte" was shortform for "Carotenoid", and that she looks "okay so far". So... what did the nonexistent player called "Carotte" do to earn that "not a townread" mention earlier? Who was that referring to if not Carotenoid, and why?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:57 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:47 pm @Sloonei tell me about Nanook.

I have not taken note of anything he’s done this game. That should probably be a concern. I’ll try to find time to fix that later.

MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:05 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:23 pm My predominant concern about Alison's Day 1 is that it feels kind of flat. She made her reads and stated them clearly, but felt a bit static and a bit uninspired, for lack of a better word. Take this post, which I previously noted as something I felt good about, or at least did not disagree with:

Okay. Sloonei just used a "post icon" on this post.

Can I town-read him for it?

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:35 pm @Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:03 pm If it's not Alison, Martin becomes the most obvious suspect.

Beyond that, nanook and tutuu are the names that feel the least stable.

After them, we are getting into the towncore at its coriest. I don't have time to do a bunch more ISOs. I can skim some stuff though.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:25 pm nanook and LC at a glance:

Spoiler: show

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:19 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:18 pm Maybe I misunderstand. I thought you were saying that, if the group sends a town and a mafia, then the mafia would choose to send another mafia so that they could subvert the democratic process and yeet a town member that was supposed to be safe.

That is not what I was saying and is a gross misunderstanding of how the game mechanics work

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:04 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:51 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:44 pmHaving me all yellow is super lazy dude

Yeah... at the very least, three posts could be said to have wolf equity with Sloonei:

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:12 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 pm hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here

Both lock town now

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:23 am

nutella wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:21 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

who's mafia?

You know I hate this question literally every time someone replies to a post of mine asking a question with “who’s mafia” instead of just answering my question

So from now on I’m going to reply to it with some version of “you motherfucka” k thx

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:13 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

That is a lot of names, nooky.

Town cores are hard sometimes

Not strong I know. Other than these, I do see what JJJ means with all the yellow. Your interactions are lean, there's not much there to connect with other players.

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:35 pm And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

This was thoroughly underwhelming. Nanook was the first person to respond to LC's "derpclear" post by the looks of it (and I think LC's post was a response to nanook in the first place?). The exchange about Nanook's viability with various hypothetical partners is a bit odd and... kind of out of place. I could see it as theater between teammates.
Nanook voted for LC yesterday, but i don't know where it fell in the scheme of the wagons.

I can see this as LC's teammate.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:02 pm [VOTE: nanook] aubergine

Oh My God U Suck

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:09 pm Does Alison/Nanook make sense?

Without looking into it deeply, nanook’s vote on LC (which he insists should clear him) means absolutely nothing in an Alison/LC world. Their third partner needs to vote for one of them on Day 2. Casting the “deciding” vote is a good play.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:30 pm I have a mostly baseless GTH guess that LC and Sloonei were setting up the last wolf to go deep and possibly wanting them to bus.

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:29 pm me: the finest, rarest, most expensive truffle, bursting with earthy umami flavor
nanook: the centerpiece, a fine roast leg of lamb with exotic spices
tutuu: the smoothest, creamiest, softest, most delectable heap of mashed potatoes in the history of the world
spf: a gorgeously crafted strawberry cake, decorated by the finest patissieres in the land with fresh rose petals and gold leaf
thunal: a foreign wine of the deepest purple, sought after by the royal sommeliers but purveyed by a vintner of questionable reputation

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:44 pm
Having me all yellow is super lazy dude

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:04 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:51 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:44 pmHaving me all yellow is super lazy dude

Yeah... at the very least, three posts could be said to have wolf equity with Sloonei:

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:12 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 10:10 pm hally/sloonei actually always contains at least 1 wolf here

Both lock town now

I get the impression from people saying that Nook hunts for clears that Nook would be a bold enough wolf to call Sloonei lock town but he could do it as town too.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:13 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

That is a lot of names, nooky.

Town cores are hard sometimes

Not strong I know. Other than these, I do see what JJJ means with all the yellow. Your interactions are lean, there's not much there to connect with other players.

I should be pretty clearly not teamed with Nutella at a bare minimum

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:20 am

Hally wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:56 pm

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:26 pm @everyone - here's a question that might not make sense but that i consider important to the gamestate right now:

how confident do you feel about your reads right now? how much faith do you have that your assessment of the gamestate is correct?

88+ % in my reads. I’m only putting confident reads into the thread this game.

what are your confident reads again?

Martin town, thun town, Hally/SPF likely aligned and >rand town, Nutella probably town.

I wanna say tutu is town too but idk man the lack of volume makes me much less confident there than I normally am

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:35 pm And [VOTE: LC] aubergine

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 2:58 pm [VOTE: sloonei] aubergine

Pretty much just a sheep of jay, I can’t read sloonei for shit

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:10 pm HOW DOES IT FEEL

HOW DOES IT FEEL BEING IN THE POE

YALL LOOK AT US FROM ABOVE

AS IF WE WERE DIRTY PEASANTS ROLLING IN THE MUD WITH THE PIGS, AND YALL WERE HIGH AND MIGHTY ARISTOCRATS

"PFF, LOOK AT TUTUU AND NANOOK, THESE DIRTY PEASANTS, IMAGINE BEING AT THE POE - LOOOOOOOL" THE BOURGEOUISE SAID

BUT HOW THE TIDES HAVE TURNED

NOW ME AND NOOK ARE DINING ON FINE WINE AND TRUFFELS WHILE SPF AND THUNAL ARE OUR MAIDS AND SERVICING US

*SNAP* TUTUU SNAPS HER FINGERS - SPF, SWEETHEART, BRING ME SOME MORE OF THAT DELICIOUS FRENCH WINE!!!

*YESSS YESSS YOUR QUEEN* - SAYS SPF

*SNAP* NANOOK SNAPS HIS FINGER - THUNAL, DEAR, I WANT MORE ROASTED LAMB!!!

*HUFF PUFF HUFFP UFF* HURRIES THUNAL, BRINGING KING NANOOK HIS MEAT

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:57 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:09 pm I think the SPF/LC grassland interactions would be somewhat difficult to fake as W/W but still possible. Here's the grasslands post from SPF that I thought was the most towny:

SPF: well im genuinely sorry if ive added to your frustrations in any way - i dont think your reads are bad by any means and the only reason im talking to you right now is because i think you might have some valuable insight to be learned from if you end up being town

so could you please work with me? just a little bit? who do you think the mafia is?

it was weird to me that LC flamed spf tbh

(weird for maybe alignment related reasons)

(dont take this take away from the fact that i desire thunal dead with every fiber of my body)

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:29 pm i think if you're town you're overthinking being sent to the grasslands. i don't think the question is necessarily why you were specifically chosen but more that there was no particular reason to send anyone else and you've been kind of in the middle enough that there wouldn't be a clear way to read into it

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:58 pm kinda funny that i completely flipped my poe on its head from yesterday. it was gonna be between tutuu and nanook and now im more or less locking them both town and it's between thunal and spf lolololol hi dead ppl reading the thread am i dumb

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:08 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:06 pm

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

Nanook, what changed between these two posts?

As discussed extensively with SPF, stuff happened in the thread

Also you’re mafia so

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:20 am Hello I’m way behind

Have we decided to give me the gun yet, and if not have we decided to give it to sloonei yet?

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:04 pm Tutu/Martin/[one of jay/sloonei possibly both depends on how their reads on each other develop]/...maybe nutes maybe SPF—think they’re not both scum, not sure if they’re both town. Thunal seems townie but I haven’t done research so idk.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:18 am

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:31 am If @NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME gives me just one nice hunt-oriented post I will give him a free town read, as long as I feel the effort was genuine.

Ok you can have one

Alison and tutu >rand town (tutu significantly >rand, would only consider her partners with Hally)

Hally also >rand town, which ties back to part of why tutu is significantly above rand town imo

I think sloon seems townie but I’ll almost certainly just sheep your reads on each other at the end of the day, unless I think you’re both mafia ofc but no reason to think that atp, so pretty content to sheep your reads on each other when/where relevant

Nutella probably slightly>rand town but not super confident

Martin seems townie


That’s where I am rn. Have some scattered miscellaneous thoughts but those are the only ones I have enough confidence in to be worth mentioning. Now I’m gonna return to not posting in an effort to retain a tiebreaker if necessary.

NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:11 am I’m using a post just to say that nova is hard town, that’s how confident I am in the read

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:26 pm honestly my reads are getting a little messy this game, so im writing my quick thoughts on everyone here to figure out where my head is at. i'm also gonna force myself to take a GTH stance on each one

tutuu: tutuu does not play in a traditional way, so it's impossible for me to read her traditionally. i tried reading through her iso to check for internal consistency/in-depth scumhunting, but i do not think the absence of those things is alignment indicative for tutuu. based on my experiences with playing with her in radiohead mafia, the easiest way to read tutuu is to assess the type of energy that she's giving off. this is more abstract than i would like it to be, but i do get good feelings from tutuu's energy so far - the way that she's manically bouncing between different reads and thought processes reminds me a lot of the tutuu i saw in radiohead, and i never get the sense that tutuu is stilted or that she doesn't know what to say. there's a real sense that tutuu is wearing her heart on her sleeve at all times, and that makes me inclined to think she's playing with a town mindset. i also do like some of the reads that tutuu has outed - her point about hally not giving a reason to townread me as justification for hally bieng town was good, and it's the kind of hyper-specific read that scum usually don't make. gth town

hally: i actually took a look at hally's ISO in the champs finale to contrast it with their ISO in this game - and the differences are pretty pronounced. i got the sense from the way that hally approached their final champ game that they were incredibly eager to align with the town consensus & not really stir the pot or radically change the gamestate. hally's strategy as mafia seemed partially to be lulling the town into a false sense of complacency - and i get a very different vibe from hally in this game. they are fiercely coming up with unique takes and thought processes that do not feel like an attempt to blend in with the rest of the game. in particular, i really like hally gunning for nutella to be a universal townread - i don't see what motivation hally would have as scum to shoot down the suspicions on nutella like they did. the only thing that concerns me about hally is a lack of content in the last day or so (which i can forgive, considering that a lot of us got distracted by the champs stuff), but so far, i do think that it's likely i'm playing with town hally. i guess there's a part of my brain that doesn't want to "commit" to my read on hally just in case im getting duped - but i would call them gth town

long con: i've been trying to figure out whether or not long con's "i am super detached from this game"-style of playing was coming from a genuine place or not. something that inclines me to think that long con isn't using their disinterest as an excuse to be lazy is the fact that they are still outing reads/thoughts in spite of being in a position where they don't ~have~ to make them. in particular, i like long con bringing attention to carotte's lack of stances on #470, because i noticed the same thing in my own readthrough. i would gth townread long con because of that

nanook: his reads on #266 are okay, and i sort of like his townread on nova. i don't really have anything else to say about nanook yet - his lack of interest in the game seems non-alignment indicative and he hasn't given enough content for me to honestly know whether or not he's playing with a town mindset. gth town, i guess

sloonei: i remember that sloonei got really flustered/frustrated by the early pushes on him in our final championship game, and my intent has been to give him the space that he needs to play the game and figure out the game on his own time. that said, i don't feel like sloonei has actually done anything with the space that we've given him. there is a distinct lack of curiosity/inquisitiveness from sloonei in this game that i saw in sloonei's game in spades in sf3 and the final champs game. i do not have a clear sense of where sloonei's head is at, and that concerns me as someone who usually has a pretty good idea of what sloonei is thinking (or at least, i assume i do :P). gth scum

nova: there is a real feeling of earnestness to nova's posts that i feel are much, much more likely to come from a town mindset than a scum one. i can't actually substantiate this hunch of mine with any logic, but there is a certain self-consciousness/honesty to nova's progression today that it's hard for me to be suspicious of them. gth town, but i do want to see more

thunal: i started out with a mild scumlean on thunal (because i thought the way that she outed a weird so early in the game was eyebrow raising/not coming from a genuine place), but her tone and her play has improved tenfold since then. reading through thunal's iso, she is constantly striving to clear people who aren't her, and i never feel like she's nervous about boxing herself in or feeling out of place w/the game. it's the mix of how easily thunal has integrated themselves into the game with how fluid and specific their logic is that makes me townlean thunal. gth town

nutella: when nutella was mafia in radiohead, i almost immediately caught on to the fact that they weren't really playing with a sense of conviction. on the contrary, i sense nothing but conviction in nutella's tone this game. her early push on sloonei felt like it was coming from the mindset of someone who was genuinely excited to catch the mafia, it felt like a detective putting the pieces together and getting excited about catching them, and that's something i consider a LOT more likely to come from town. pairing that with the fact that hally has a ~~godread~~ on them as well, i townlean nutella. gth town

martin: i mentioned last night that martin left a strong impression on me when he opened the game w/a relatively confident townread on thunal. unfortunately, martin's ISO drops off a lot after that. the majority of his posts so far have been responses to the parts of the game that he has missed, and they are fine. he's making a lot of observations and a lot of thoughts that appear good on a surface level, but i don't see much followthrough with the observations he's making. i have no idea who martin actually scumreads the most after reading all of his catch-up posts, and that concerns me a little bit. i still do like martin's tone but i'm not convinced his logic/gamesolving is equally as compelling. gth scum

alison: my biggest bone to pick with alison right now is the way that she framed her read on thunal - i don't like that she characterized thunal's tr on her as being about "confidence" when it was clearly about measuring expectations from one game to the next. still, i don't have any specific issues with alison in this game other than the very broad feeling that there is something wrong with her tone this game. it maybe feels a little bit too careful, or not as natural as i expected - but i can't actually substantiate my concerns about alison with any type of logic. i honestly need to see more from this slot to form a more educated opinion but i Guess i would gth scum

carotte: good, solid observations and analysis that nevertheless feel dissociated and detached from the current context of the game. i don't particularly know what carotte is thinking at any given moment, and i also feel like a lot of her posts have a lot of good thoughts and observations that she does not formulate into conclusions. there is a sense of aimlessness to carotte's hunting today that rubs me the wrong way, even though i like quite a few of her posts tonally. gth scum

jagged: the only real beef i have with jagged is his early handling of the pressure on sloonei - but reading through the context again, i can understand that he may have tried so hard to explain sloonei's actions because he felt that he was prompted to by one of hally's questions. there have been a few moments where i have hiveminded with jagged - particularly on our suspicion/paranoia toward alison, but there haven't been any major: "yeah, jagged is definitely town" moments that i've felt from him in the 3 previous games we've played. i hate to hedge on jagged's alignment but if there was a null read in this list, it would be this one. i would cautiously call jagged gth town, and mostly because there are quite a few people that im suspicious of more than him

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:29 pm ok thanks i just read all of those

judgement pending

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:24 pm like

arent all the perc people hardcore on the emotion stuff

wasnt dizzy all like

"omg i hate myself, i only voted this guy out of pure ego, its a negative trait about myself im trying to fix, im so sorry guy" etc ect and dude flipped wolf

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:27 pm My meta (I thought it would be good to link it, especially for Alison so she can realize that this is my town meta):
Town games:
https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/105 ... ch-special (the only light game on the list)
https://forum.throneoflies.com/t/wild-w ... -win/83518 (this was also my first game on a site)
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... vs-Zombies

Scum games:
https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/65/ ... 9-town-win
https://mafiacafe.boards.net/thread/88/ ... eague-town

Town then scum game (I was recruited into the scum team n1):
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... ard-Fiesta

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:24 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:23 pm

nutella wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:20 pm alison was right about martin and hard sred thunal, hally was thinking about looking into thunal in the treehouse, and thunal's "reaction" to being put in the grasslands again felt a little off / I've been getting slightly weird vibes from her recent posts


idk i just like.... im sorry to martin's ghost but i just don't *really* feel like it's tutuu or nanook. it seems kinda silly if one of them wins in f3 but... thunal totally could

It’s not me. Think about it from this POV instead: Hally was townreading me harder than anyone else in the game. Why would I have killed my biggest defender instead of SPF? And why would I draw this much extra attention to myself by putting myself in the grasslands for 2 nights?

i dont think this is particularly true

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:00 pm for the record, i find it very unlikely we have wolves as deep as spf/nut/thun. all three should ~always be town here

if there are wolves deeper than sloonei/alison, they’re in tutuu/nook/martin imo

Hally wrote: ↑Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:54 am thought dump

martin has some pretty nuanced thoughts so far both about the setup and then later re: his read on thun. his tone is also good imo. i would be pretty impressed if he was able to deliver such nuanced thoughts in such a genuine sounding way as mafia given his limited experience. wanna see if he can keep it up but yea, pretty towny so far

thun is also pretty towny. she’s a good wolf though and can replicate her town meta pretty well. she also has a tone that’s generally kinda hard to read. but her thoughts as town have greater nuance and depth than her scum game, and i’m seeing that here so far. don’t feel like shes forcing stuff. again, not gonna lock this in because it’s still early but so far i feel good about her

nook’s “just let me decide who to kill and ill take care of business” seems like town!nook lol. not actually sure he wouldn’t be brazen enough to push for it as scum but idk, not worried about it rn

and with sloonei, the best way i can put it is like how alison did. when i read his posts about why nut was town, my immediate reaction was “he’s just making this up, this isn’t a real read.” i dont disagree with the conclusion obviously because im like 99% sure nut is a villager rn. but i am extremely concerned that sloonei had that read before i think he “should” have. it makes me think he has tmi that nut is town and that was coloring his perception of her posts so he thought she had towntold before she actually did. but like, idk if sloonei would make a mistake like that as scum? and sloonei in particular is someone i really really really want to find if he’s town because he’s a huge asset if so. but nut, tutuu, alison, spf and i all noticing that he seems off does give me more confidence in the read than i usually might have. idk my mind is definitely not made up though and i want to see what he does going forward and how he responds to the pressure

vote: spf
vote: sloonei

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:04 pm

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:39 pm
Not really a joke either. I just thought I maybe had a 0.001% chance of catching scum!Hally in a small gambit.

this ^ is a villager

Hally wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:09 pm im trying to figure out if i’m just getting like hardcore owned by thun but atm i don’t see why she’s scummy. she just feels like town!thun to me

inb4 alison says this makes me w/w with thun

staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:05 pm how did thunal interact with long con?

i like thunal bringing up suspicion/paranoia toward long con on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675408#p675408 - this was at a point when the suspicion on long con was low, and i don't see why thunal would feel incentivized to throw shade on her partner like that

i get a similar feeling from viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=675604#p675604 - thunal put LC low in her POE even at a point when long con was not a popular chop option by any means. if thunal is mafia with LC then it means that she bussed early and she bussed aggressively

once again, thunal goes out of her way to bring attention to long con slipping under the radar on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676986#p676986 and viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=676994#p676994. this was at a point when jagged/alison were arguing and when there were a lot of other viable pushes besides long con. thunal is constantly going: "hey, look at long con! he's scummy!" when she would have zero reason to do that as his partner

how did long con interact with thunal?

viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677026#p677026 is notable because it's one of the only times during the game where long con directly answers a question & tries to justify his own actions - gth this reflects nicely on thunal, because it feels like long con is trying to appease her/evade thunal pushing on her suspicions further

lc didn't have any other notable interactions with thunal beyond lightly townreading her on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677061#p677061

the only interaction that i find slightly suspicious is long con throwing out thunal's name in a weirdly uncomfortable/unnatural way on viewtopic.php?f=273&t=1958&p=677035#p677035 - i can't figure out why lc chose to throw shade on thunal in that moment, especially since the rest of his attitude toward her was just buddying

conclusion: i was honestly a little suspicious of thunal before i did this analysis, but i'm feeling a lot better about her alignment now. the interactions between thunal/long con consistently point to thunal being town, and i find it unlikely that she went out of her way to hardbus her partner on d1

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:25 pm Sloonei/LC stuff:

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:59 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:35 pm @Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:02 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:59 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:39 pm

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:35 pm @Sloonei what is lc’s alignment?

same question to @Long Con actually - sloonei is [fill in the blank]

Sloonei is mafia. In the early game, as I said, I don't have a strong grasp on why people are Town reading or scum reading others, a lot of the time. As a result, my reads in the early game are often informed by players who excel in the early game. Sloonei is a name I've seen brought up probably more than anyone else as scum, to the point that it was said Carotte being town locks Sloonei as scum.

I would much rather give an answer after I have looked over his posts, which I can do when I'm done with Nutella.

So this is literally just “Sloonei is mafia because everyone else says so”?

LC's read on Sloonei feels distinctly fake and for quite bad reasons. He either doesn't have actual reasons to push Sloonei since he's town or he's pulling a Sheppard and making an intentionally bad justification for why Sloonei is scum so he doesn't have to push Sloonei to the degree where others could be convinced. Sloonei's response seems lackluster. He doesn't give an additional take on LC's alignment from it which is something I think a townie would do in that scenario. I also feel like Sloonei might be more vocal about why the reasoning is bad if they were W/T.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:00 am I also don't like his insistence that I am scum. I don't think he is considering the alternative in the slightest.

I always am. I’ve named you as a suspect several times, but that doesn’t mean my mind is made up on anything at all. I have not seen you do anything that screams town at me.

Who should we send to the grasslands today?

At first glance this seemed like a pretty neutral post, but Sloonei's "who should we send to the grasslands today?" question is ever so slightly scum indicative imo since he could be trying to get an inactive teammate to engage and get themselves out of the PoE. Again projecting onto myself, I know I've done that tactic quite a bit as scum with teammates.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:21 pm [VOTE: alsion] aubergine
[VOTE: long con] aubergine
[VOTE: martin] aubergine

I don't have a strong preference among these three. I am surprised at my own Martin vote. His response to me in the big wall post of his just now struck me oddly, so it's a bit of a kneejerk/GTH vote. Maybe that's unfair to him. Idk.

If this was a typical game with only one vote, I think I would be going for Alison, but I have been absent for most of the latter part of this phase and will be absent for the remainder of it. I trust you all to pick the right one out of these three.

Thunal is town.

Sorry to be such a dud this phase. I don't like it.

I get the feeling Sloonei would vote like this (meaning, voting for anyone he suspects) regardless of alignment. The analysis I did (which is very limited since I just searched "Long Con" in Sloonei's ISO to find these posts) points slightly to Sloonei being scum. His push on LC seemed pretty weak and LC's push on Sloonei seemed pretty weak.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:59 pm I've been thinking we should give Nutella the gun today instead of SPF. I think SPF is probably town with the way she thought out all those interaction analyses in a way that makes sense and that both me and Nutella agree with, but Nutella is the clearest person in the game and the most obvious NK. A doc save on her would be really useful.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:57 am

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:11 pm
I was thinking that because Sloonei was the next person in the PoE. As the next person in the PoE scum!Sloonei and his scummates wouldn't be happy with the consensus. However, if Sloonei was town and scum knew they were heading towards a mislim on Carotte that set the groundwork for another mislim on Sloonei they would be quite happy with the consensus.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:52 pm
okay. this actually does make sense and is a good answer. i’m struggling with the same thing. his posts aren’t bad but they’re also not good, and i’m similarly left wondering if that’s AI or just due to him being worn out

your point that people are often suspicious of him for bad reasons is valid but doesn’t really resonate with me personally because when we were town together in SF3 i was never suspicious of him. i think he did get suspicion thrown at him early on that game but i could never make myself see him as anything but a villager and he remained my strongest tr along with spf right up to the end. i felt similarly about him in the finals, though i obviously had the benefit of tmi that game. but even still, none if the accusations levied at him throughout the game ever made any sense to me. he seemed unimpeachably towny to me and i think it’s because he has a process that i do resonate with. in sf3 he remarked that he felt he saw the game through the same lens as me and i felt that too. this game it hasn’t clicked like that yet for me. i still feel something is missing

anyway, thank you for the response. it’s helpful

This part actually does look a little towny from Hally, but this post as a whole made me more suspicious of them overall for reasons I'll get into at the end of this post. Hally's listening to JJJ but I think that might be because they think JJJ would pick up on if Hally wasn't listening since they were in finals together.

Hally wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:52 pm i don’t follow this at all. it sounds like you’re more just saying you want to eliminate her for information/because it will help you going forward to know her alignment. but why is she mafia? also your point that she’s gone after a lot of people isn’t really true. she’s really only ever hard pushed thun and sloonei. she clearly is not trying to scum read as many people as possible. and what do you mean, “all she’s doing is making points”? what is bad about that?

this whole post is very confusing. i have no idea what you’re trying to say

Sure, there's a line of questioning here but it's sprinked with "your points don't make sense and are confusing." The questions are more to poke holes in the argument than actual open minded or solving questions. This is suspicious from Hally, more on that later.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:28 pm
That makes some sense - I was struggling to reason what the benefit would be to scum!Alison to keep pushing me this much. She didn't push me anywhere near this much when I was wolf and she was SK. But wanting to keep me and Sloonei out of the towncore would be beneficial if she was scum (especially if Sloonei is town).

how does that make sense? alison has suspects. her suspects are you and sloonei. why is her having two suspects scummy? like, obviously regardless of her alignment she doesn’t want her suspects to be in the town core. that’s the literal definition of a suspect. how is it any different from you or anyone else who has suspects? couldn’t you say that sloonei is trying to keep alison out of the town core by suspecting her? or you are? or jay is? because that makes as much sense to me as what you say here (read: zero)

like, i think you’re confbiasing to fit what you want your reads to be. this argument that martin is making about why alison is scum is not good. your argument about why sloonei is town is not good. they just aren’t valid arguments. that doesn’t mean the reads are wrong necessarily but please try to consider if the arguments themselves actually make any sense

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:39 pm
I feel like eliminating in the non universally TRed people is more strategic for today since it gives more info - and I don't think I could successfully case and push for an elim on any of the players I mentioned since my reasons to suspect them are admittedly thin. It's more "could be scum" and for Hally, it's "not out of their scum range." Hally is the most likely out of the three names I have since they have some small things in their play I found suspicious - their complete 180 on Carotte when they got to the grasslands, even though well explained, I could easily see scum motivation for. They're not posting the same way I'm used to seeing from them, meaning that they're not posting as much and they're not as pushy as I've seen them as either alignment. They're blending in which I find unusual for them but it could be because they have less time to play because of their job. Also they didn't pay attention to my deepwolf suspicion on them which I feel scum!Hally is more likely to do than town!Hally. Hally I have some reasons for. Tutuu and Nutella are more "I don't TR them as strongly as the other townread people."

what is the scum motivation for 180ing on carotte? like, actually. what did that get me if im mafia?

also i don’t really feel im blending in. im posting what i can with the time i have. i thought i was quite pushy with carotte and she ended up being town. now it’s harder to find concrete scum reads. also your point about my number of posts is kinda silly. most of my posts are multiquote catch ups so that i can be sure i save posts for real timing. if you were to break up my multiquotes into individual posts, my post count would be higher. would that make me more likely town? like, why does this matter to you?

also the reason why i haven’t addressed your tinfoil on me is because there’s nothing to address. atm it’s just “hally isn’t out of their scum range.” that’s not a substantive suspicion that i can respond to. i did respond in detail to your point about my 180 on carotte though, so it’s wrong to say i’ve ignored your suspicion on me. everything else has just been paranoia that’s not grounded in anything other than your fear of my scum game. it’s the same thing every game and i’m more than used to it by now, so it’s not something i actually care about, sorry

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:09 am [VOTE: Hally] aubergine

I don't think I'm ever going to want to change this.

Thunal33 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:19 am This is simply not how town!Hally acts towards me. Even when they suspected me (correctly) in Bastard Fiesta they still asked me questions that were open minded (not pointed), valued my opinion, and reevaluated their read on me multiple times. They care about my opinion even more when they townread me and certainly wouldn't shut down all my arguments without taking any of them into consideration.

tutuu wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:23 pm thunal in her quick topic:

"Scum seem to have some sort of impression that I'm a loose cannon that might make a hero shot just because I tinfoiled everyone in the game (my theory for why I keep being sent). Scum, that's not how I play."

how is that a real thought?

how is thunal, (town thunal who is supposedly offering her real thoughts) thinks that realistically she could be chosen to shoot instead of nutella?

i am not under the impression that thunal spouts random nonsense like someone like tutuu would do

i think what she said there doesnt makes sense from a town pov, and she just wanted to say a sentence in which she could talk to the scum ("hey scum, bla bla") because she thought it would look towny