Easter Mafia [GAME OVER]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I might like nutella even less than Quin this phase.

[mention]nutella[/mention], what process did you undergo to determine via POE that Quin is the one?

[Scotty]

Nutella talking about Colin:

NIGHT 2:

Ugh pretty much none of the choutas interactions are conclusive either way. I'll GTH it.

These are GTH reads almost solely based on the choutas interactions:
Colin: town
Dys: town
Eloh: bad
Epi: bad
Jay: town
Kyle: town
Lap: town
MP: bad
Marmot: bad
Quin: town
Scotty: town

Several of the town ones are still plausible though. Ugh too many possibilities when there are really only 2 teammates.

The first GTH read

nutella good
Scotty good
MP good
Dizzy good
Kyle good
lapluie good

Colin tinfoil

Marmot no
Epignosis no
Elohcin no

Solid. Much agreement here.

DAY 4:

Poe:

if they are bad I will personally eat G-Man's dictionary:
Scotty
Epi Blackballs

Would need to seriously re-evaluate in order to not see as town:
Quin
Leaning town:
Colin
Who the hell knows:
Marmot
Tinfoil Zone:
JaggedJimmyJay
Dyslexicon
Leaning bad:
Lapluie

I might read Colin's iso next to see if I can see what others see. My gut says town on him but I don't have a lot to back that up. Dys probably next after that. I could also be wrong about lap, which scares me because that leaves a lot of possibilities.

So at this point, it was fairly early in the day, and I’m not sure what votes Colin had garnered yet . Nutella still reads him as town; but this time, he’s only a town “lean”.
She picks him from the pile and comments further that she will read up and see why he looked suspicious to a few of us yesterday.

Finished Colin's iso and he still looks pretty good to me. He remains a poe possibility but I'd be surprised.

Gonna start isoing dys but I'm just reading sporadically while working so it'll take a while.

Solidified her stance and wasn’t independently swayed by colin’s Iso.

I am particularly interested in Dizzy and Colin. They're the most difficult cases to sort given my own preconceptions and also the fact that my own content plays a large role in what I compiled. A less biased perspective would be super.

I had a similar experience when I ISOed Dyslexicon earlier today -- I was expecting them to look mostly town but I came out of it with pretty much no solid reason to town read them (and not much solid reason to scum read them to be fair, but there is a little bit that points me in that direction, including the Gladys stuff).

oh? “Pretty much no solid reason to town read them”? What about when you read his iso and said he looked “pretty good” and that you’d “be surprised” if he was bad? This summation directly conflicts with your last post on the matter. Me no like.

I am particularly interested in Dizzy and Colin. They're the most difficult cases to sort given my own preconceptions and also the fact that my own content plays a large role in what I compiled. A less biased perspective would be super.

I had a similar experience when I ISOed Dyslexicon earlier today -- I was expecting them to look mostly town but I came out of it with pretty much no solid reason to town read them (and not much solid reason to scum read them to be fair, but there is a little bit that points me in that direction, including the Gladys stuff).

If you presently had to compile a POE pool of four, who would it be?

You too, Quin, please.

lapluie
Dyslexicon
Marmot
JaggedJimmyJay

Ok but what happened to the “he remains a PoE possibility”?

See, this is where the ADD read changes Nutella hasn’t had a reputation for in this game is frustrating, because some of the things she says can be conceived as contradictory. Civs are known to make contradictory statements in reads, but then so are mafia. I can see both, and when looking at Colin especially, it looks worse in a magnifying glass.

But let’s go on to when lap and marmot claimed:

Mmm ok so lap and marmot claimed, this changes my poe. [VOTE: Dyslexicon] aubergine for now, might switch to Colin

Gives a possibility of switching to the cool cats on colin, but does dys instead. Not terribly strange because she hasn’t really declared Colin a bad read yet this game. This is more of a resigned voting proposition due to circumstance changes

Colin, if you're not counterclaiming Keith, it's probably prudent to believe and not lynch marmot.

A warning to Colin, but not an aggressive one.

Better mafia to nightkill a confirmed civilian power role than for town to mislynch a civilian power role. We need to use the lynch on the scum.

Unless you’re just buying time because you want to get civ numbers down before you’re outed as Caebernog.

What do you suppose we should do with Marmot if nobody counterclaims Keith Shover?

I fully expect Keith to not claim. I support that decision, and it’s why I’m now 100% convinced he’s scum.

The only way a scum would be brazen enough to fakeclaim, though, is if they know they won’t be lynched. (I would think, anyway.) So whether we want to use the lynch to confirm that ... idk. I don’t know where we sit numbers-wise if we change the phase-patters until LYLO like that.

This is some hot bullshit. [VOTE: colin] aubergine

THE TIDES HAVE CHANGED, MR KRABS!
It could be that at this point in the day Colin and nutella discussed his counterclaim in scum chat so she could get her own cred on him early enough before it got crazy. And it did get crazy lol.

Good. Now it's 100% certain that either Marmot or Colin is mafia.

Yeah at least we have this.

Damn it Colin you took so long that I don't know whether to believe you especially since you actively denied it earlier.

But I did town read you before all this and can't say the same for Marmot, so I guess I'll bite the bullet and [VOTE: marmot] aubergine

Oh yeah also I didn't buy marmot's point about Kyle because it was very easily retroactive

But then the opportunity to switch off Colin arose. This wouldn’t be suspicious because marmot did look suspicious, and she wasn’t the only one to do so. But it was an opening a baddie would need to shirk the lynch.

“Thank god you counterclaimed, you silly goose. I didn’t wanna have to vote you rofl” is how that reads to me. Like, this post comes off to me as a sigh of relief.

I’m not frustrated. I’m confident that I’ve got your number here.

I've an exercise for you.

~ If Marmot is a lying mafioso, who is his teammate?

~ If Marmot is being truthful, who are the two mafia?

I am not a “cart-before-horse” style player so I don’t hunt for teammates until I have one confirmed. And I don’t have time right now for a complete ISO but I did see interactions between he and Dizzy that felt strange on his end. I would have to do an analysis on Dizzy’s posts to guarantee that.

I don’t think Marmot is being truthful, but my bad feeling about lap persists (especially because the night and day difference I saw was actually a game where she was civ.)

If you're Keith Shover, you had one confirmed.

Wow, well fuck me. Fuck all this. That is good.

Mmm yeah fuck I may need to switch back to Colin hmm

Uh oh, trouble in paradise. JJJ brings the sundaes and you can’t turn down a nice sundae on a hot day

It is possible in the metaphysical sense and not much else.

I don't quite understand what you mean by this.

Let's pretend the universe is probabilistic, and that it has been duplicated 1,000,000 times. In how many of those duplicated universes is Marmot Keith Shover?

Much, MUCH fewer than the ones where he’s fake claiming. I would give myself a 95% chance of being right about this and that may be even too generous to Marmot.

In 5% of universes, Colin allows Marmot to be Keith Shover.

Yeah I was pretty damn perplexed when he said that.

Were you? I didn’t see that. Must have been an internal monologue.

[VOTE: Colin
] aubergine
Fuck it

Yeap k [VOTE: colin] aubergine

Back in Black

POST LYNCH:

Jay, why shouldn't I think you're Colin's teammate?

Immediate tinfoil on JJJ. I just inherently disagree with this because as I read back the end of day in succession, I thought the towniest person out of it was JJJ.

What a fucking end of day to miss! Good job boyos and thank god you were all right. JJJ coming in hot with that catch at the end.

There is no way in hell that JJJ is bad after that EoD. Surprisingly, Dys looked the worst after I left and in hindsight, next to Quin. I’ll take a detailed look at Colin interactions tomorrow. Everything he’s said in the past day is complete WIFOM and shouldn’t be taken at face value, or even below the belt value, but before he was the main lynch candidate should be entirely enlightening.

So I guess what I’m saying is: let’s lynch marmot tomorrow k

I didn't totally follow all the crazy vote changing at EOD so perhaps you are right about Jay. If it's between dizzy and quin though man idfk

Wha huh? You were the crazy vote changing at EoD


In reading back this in connection with colin, I think nutella smells especially spoiled and needs to be thrown away.

I’m still thinking but currently rank my proposed lynch tomorrow as
Nutella
Dys
Quin

In that order. Convince me otherwise.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’m still thinking but currently rank my proposed lynch tomorrow as
Nutella
Dys
Quin

In that order. Convince me otherwise.

I think the independent cases for nutella and for Dizzy are comparable with regard to their interactions with Colin. Where I think they separate is their appearance at face value, particularly in a pressure scenario. I think Dizzy looked more authentic in the Day 4 madness for example, and that nutella was following the motions that Dizzy and I were making more than creating motions of her own.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Scotty[/mention], is the order you gave first-to-last lynch or last-to-first?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I want either nutella or Quin ejected next.

Which do you think should go first?

[nutella]

Scotty you are making a lot of wrong assumptions there. At one point you address a post I made about Dyslexicon as if it was about Colin. You might wanna double check details like that before insisting I'm contradictory. Also, no I actually wasn't around at EOD. I caught up after it ended and saw there had been several more vote changes in the last half hour of the poll.

Anyway, yes I townread Colin until claimgate, and then his behavior around marmot's claim looked awful. Yes he didn't make my narrowed down poe pool befoe then because I townread him more than 4 others at that point, but not enough to clear him. I get why I look like a potential teammate but I assure you I am not and that all of my reactions yesterday were genuine.

[nutella]

Also i did respond to colins weird possible world/5% thing when it happened, go back and actually read my posts before calling things out for no reason.

[nutella]

@jay, I have you, Scotty, epi, and dizzy as town. That leaves quin. What more elaboration do you need on what PoE is?

[nutella]

Plus I just think it fits. Quin got some credit early on with the choutas lynch, and his behavior throughout claimgate and his expressed certainty about marmot's and Colin's alignments felt like TMI + taking the opportunity to vote for the teammate that he knew would survive.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@jay, I have you, Scotty, epi, and dizzy as town. That leaves quin. What more elaboration do you need on what PoE is?

I don't need elaboration on what POE is.

If you feel those four players look more like civilians than Quin does, you could explain what leads you to those conclusions at least briefly. It isn't clear to me, because your posts tend to be brief.

[nutella]

@jay, I have you, Scotty, epi, and dizzy as town. That leaves quin. What more elaboration do you need on what PoE is?

I don't need elaboration on what POE is.

If you feel those four players look more like civilians than Quin does, you could explain what leads you to those conclusions at least briefly. It isn't clear to me, because your posts tend to be brief.

I explained dizzy earlier this morning-- they felt authentic/organic yesterday and seemed to have a similar experience as I did with all the flailing around trying to figure out if it was marmot or Colin. With you it's a pretty similar deal, your behavior looked civ throughout all that and you were instrumental in ending it on c rather than m. Plus you've looked pretty civ all game and the various moments in which I've wanted to suspect you have been super tinfoily. Occam's razor says you are civ. As for epi and Scotty I have been 95% certain they are civ for quite a while based on the whole bodies of their isos.

[nutella]

I could entertain another look at Scotty just to be sure, I haven't looked deeply into whether there is a chance hes bad but if he is he has put on the best performance I have seen in recent memory. I'll look into his iso and Colin interactions when I have time but I doubt I'll find anything. Honestly at this point if it's not Quin I will shit a brick and eat it for breakfast.

[Marmot]

@jay, I have you, Scotty, epi, and dizzy as town. That leaves quin. What more elaboration do you need on what PoE is?

I can't recall if you've addressed this, but Jay made a good point to me that we have one mislynch to spare, so if it isn't Quin, then who would you lynch?

[Quin]

I was all in on marmot being good from day 3. In a situation where either he or another is confirmed bad, there's no doubt about it. Calling it TMI is stupid. The read existed before Colin was in trouble.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was all in on marmot being good from day 3. In a situation where either he or another is confirmed bad, there's no doubt about it. Calling it TMI is stupid. The read existed before Colin was in trouble.

That's the problem. To sustain that kind of confidence under those circumstances is extremely difficult for any civilian. I had Marmot as my top mafia read entering that situation, but I didn't rest my case immediately and say "it's Colin", because I didn't know that. I realize the read existed before the claim drama. I don't understand why the claim drama didn't make you re-think the matter at all.

If you know Marmot is a civilian, then that applies at any moment when you give Marmot civilian credit.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I could entertain another look at Scotty just to be sure, I haven't looked deeply into whether there is a chance hes bad but if he is he has put on the best performance I have seen in recent memory. I'll look into his iso and Colin interactions when I have time but I doubt I'll find anything. Honestly at this point if it's not Quin I will shit a brick and eat it for breakfast.

Certainly not with that attitude.

[nutella]

I could entertain another look at Scotty just to be sure, I haven't looked deeply into whether there is a chance hes bad but if he is he has put on the best performance I have seen in recent memory. I'll look into his iso and Colin interactions when I have time but I doubt I'll find anything. Honestly at this point if it's not Quin I will shit a brick and eat it for breakfast.

Certainly not with that attitude.

I mean I will really look lol. I would just be very surprised.

[nutella]

I was all in on marmot being good from day 3. In a situation where either he or another is confirmed bad, there's no doubt about it. Calling it TMI is stupid. The read existed before Colin was in trouble.

That's the problem. To sustain that kind of confidence under those circumstances is extremely difficult for any civilian. I had Marmot as my top mafia read entering that situation, but I didn't rest my case immediately and say "it's Colin", because I didn't know that. I realize the read existed before the claim drama. I don't understand why the claim drama didn't make you re-think the matter at all.

If you know Marmot is a civilian, then that applies at any moment when you give Marmot civilian credit.

Yeah, this. The rest of us were running around in a panic doing our best to ascertain who was legit and who was lying. Your calm certainty about the whole thing is really not a good look.

[nutella]

@jay, I have you, Scotty, epi, and dizzy as town. That leaves quin. What more elaboration do you need on what PoE is?

I can't recall if you've addressed this, but Jay made a good point to me that we have one mislynch to spare, so if it isn't Quin, then who would you lynch?

I have addressed this, probably dizzy or mayyybse Scotty depending on what I find out in his iso later (don't have time now but will get to it this evening assuming I survive the night)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[mention]Marmot[/mention]
[mention]lapluie[/mention]

This probably goes without saying, but I hope you're both still using your actions tonight.

[Quin]

I don't give a damn if nobody else was confident. Your feelings don't influence mine.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't give a damn if nobody else was confident. Your feelings don't influence mine.

You don't have to give a damn, but if this kind of shit is what you're going to put in the thread right now then I am happy to lynch you.

[G-Man]

Gladys Campbell was weary from a day of interviews with police on top of her convention duties. She needed a break- something to help take the edge off. On her bed, she saw that housekeeping had left a treat for her.

She chuckled at the irony of giving a Cadbury Creme Egg to someone working the dentist convention. Oh heck, she opened it up. She sat next to that confounded vending machine a few days in a row. She deserved a chance to indulge.

It had been a while since she ate one of these treats. Too long, in fact. Had she been more acquainted with the sweet flavor of the gooey treat, she would have detected something was amiss before she took off the imitation wrapper.

Within minutes, the room was spinning. She made her way to the bathroom and put a cold washcloth on her face. She thought she was hallucinating before she passed out, because she thought she saw two rabbits emerging from behind the shower curtain.

-------------------------------

When Gladys woke up, she was blindfolded and tied down. Her ears were assaulted by Sammy Davis Jr.'s rendition of "The Candy Man." She could hear someone tapping something at various points around her. It sounded like metal. Every now and then, something sharp poked or jabbed her here and there.

She felt something fuzzy touch her jaw and open her mouth. She tried to resist but the drugs had her loosened up pretty good. Then she heard a familiar sound- a dental drill.

Gladys wailed as Sammy informed her of how the Candy Man mixes everything with love and makes the world taste good while the Cadbury Bunny made her feel every ounce of pain as he drilled her head and ripped her teeth out one by one.

The other guests in the hallway would never forget about the noise that night. The maids would never forget the mess they found the next day.

-------------------------------

Lapluie was killed. She was Gladys Campbell, the dentist checker.

It is now Day 5.

You have 48 hours to lynch someone.

[lapluie]

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[lapluie]

@Marmot
@lapluie

This probably goes without saying, but I hope you're both still using your actions tonight.

It doesn't matter cus I'm dead

[ColinIsCool]

Sorry lap.

[lapluie]

Good luck finding the ebil, also thank you gman for being a great host! !

[lapluie]

Sorry lap.

That's ok I had fun =]

[ColinIsCool]

Well, I dunno about you guys, but I am voting for [VOTE: COLIN] aubergine.

[Quin]

am I allowed to talk about why that kill makes me look good or would that be too up myself?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

am I allowed to talk about why that kill makes me look good or would that be too up myself?

If you think that's the case, then talk about it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've done all the analytic work I can think of. I want to see continued deliberation before I make my final decision. I am not convinced.

[Quin]

am I allowed to talk about why that kill makes me look good or would that be too up myself?

If you think that's the case, then talk about it.

I've already been checked as non-dentist and my teammate Colin is confirmed. It's too late to kill her to hide that. But you'll tell me I could be motivated to stop her from confirming two dentists, which I realised isn't wrong, but I really want you to ignore that bit.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

am I allowed to talk about why that kill makes me look good or would that be too up myself?

If you think that's the case, then talk about it.

I've already been checked as non-dentist and my teammate Colin is confirmed. It's too late to kill her to hide that. But you'll tell me I could be motivated to stop her from confirming two dentists, which I realised isn't wrong, but I really want you to ignore that bit.

Why does already having been checked as a non-dentist matter?

[Quin]

am I allowed to talk about why that kill makes me look good or would that be too up myself?

If you think that's the case, then talk about it.

I've already been checked as non-dentist and my teammate Colin is confirmed. It's too late to kill her to hide that. But you'll tell me I could be motivated to stop her from confirming two dentists, which I realised isn't wrong, but I really want you to ignore that bit.

Why does already having been checked as a non-dentist matter?

Because if I'm bad I could kill her to stop her from checking and exposing me. That motivation doesn't exist if she's already done that.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Because if I'm bad I could kill her to stop her from checking and exposing me. That motivation doesn't exist if she's already done that.

The majority of people remaining who would be probable checks are non-dentists.

[Quin]

Because if I'm bad I could kill her to stop her from checking and exposing me. That motivation doesn't exist if she's already done that.

The majority of people remaining who would be probable checks are non-dentists.

I am dumb and don't know how this relates.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Because if I'm bad I could kill her to stop her from checking and exposing me. That motivation doesn't exist if she's already done that.

The majority of people remaining who would be probable checks are non-dentists.

I am dumb and don't know how this relates.

Being a non-dentist is not "exposure". It's close to irrelevant.

[Quin]

@jay, I have you, Scotty, epi, and dizzy as town. That leaves quin. What more elaboration do you need on what PoE is?

I don't need elaboration on what POE is.

If you feel those four players look more like civilians than Quin does, you could explain what leads you to those conclusions at least briefly. It isn't clear to me, because your posts tend to be brief.

Hoooooooooooooooooooooooooh.

[Quin]

Because if I'm bad I could kill her to stop her from checking and exposing me. That motivation doesn't exist if she's already done that.

The majority of people remaining who would be probable checks are non-dentists.

I am dumb and don't know how this relates.

Being a non-dentist is not "exposure". It's close to irrelevant.

And I was sure you were going to call out my word choice as a scumslip.

Thanks, Jimbo.

The cop works differently in this game. Dentists are town roles that "can be confirmed" whereas anything else "cannot be confirmed". Does this definition help you understand at all?

[Quin]

Hey [mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Describe town nutella in 10 words or less.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And I was sure you were going to call out my word choice as a scumslip.

Thanks, Jimbo.

The cop works differently in this game. Dentists are town roles that "can be confirmed" whereas anything else "cannot be confirmed". Does this definition help you understand at all?

Did you scumslip?

I understand how Gladys differs from a standard cop. What I am saying is that I don't think any mafioso is worried about being identified as a non-dentist, because that doesn't mean anything. In the absence of context and nuance, it may increase the probability of a player being mafia by a tiny amount.

The real promise of another living night for Gladys was the point you asked me to ignore. So.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hey @JaggedJimmyJay

Describe town nutella in 10 words or less.

Eager, engaged, uncertain, cooperative, incisive

[Quin]

Hey @JaggedJimmyJay

Describe town nutella in 10 words or less.

Eager, engaged, uncertain, cooperative, incisive

I remember a game where you went all in on nutella being town because of her stream-of-consciousness-like posts. Do you see that in her posts in this game?

[Quin]

A comparison of her FE posts would be good too.

[Quin]

And I was sure you were going to call out my word choice as a scumslip.

Thanks, Jimbo.

The cop works differently in this game. Dentists are town roles that "can be confirmed" whereas anything else "cannot be confirmed". Does this definition help you understand at all?

Did you scumslip?

I understand how Gladys differs from a standard cop. What I am saying is that I don't think any mafioso is worried about being identified as a non-dentist, because that doesn't mean anything. In the absence of context and nuance, it may increase the probability of a player being mafia by a tiny amount.

The real promise of another living night for Gladys was the point you asked me to ignore. So.

No, but I realised after posting "exposed" invites all sorts of misinterpretations.

[Quin]

Hey @JaggedJimmyJay

Describe town nutella in 10 words or less.

Eager, engaged, uncertain, cooperative, incisive

I remember a game where you went all in on nutella being town because of her stream-of-consciousness-like posts. Do you see that in her posts in this game?

i can't find this game but i'm absolutely sure it exists

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hey @JaggedJimmyJay

Describe town nutella in 10 words or less.

Eager, engaged, uncertain, cooperative, incisive

I remember a game where you went all in on nutella being town because of her stream-of-consciousness-like posts. Do you see that in her posts in this game?

That could be. I don't think nutella looks bad in terms of pure meta appearance. We're at a stage in the game where that is not enough. It's also a meta which provides a manageable avenue for replication (easier than a heavily analytic or leadership meta for example). She should be assessed for her content, not just the way it looks on the surface.

When I look at the roster I don't see anyone among the viable candidates who I'd call "off-meta". Maybe Charlie applies, but he's been lower profile in a few recent games.

[Quin]

Hey @JaggedJimmyJay

Describe town nutella in 10 words or less.

Eager, engaged, uncertain, cooperative, incisive

If you wanna cooperate with a guy who's done nothing but give you shit all game, one of these for everyone within the larger PoE pool would be nice.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you wanna cooperate with a guy who's done nothing but give you shit all game, one of these for everyone within the larger PoE pool would be nice.

I don't know what you mean by this. You giving me shit all game or the reverse?

Scotty - interrogative, incredulous, stubborn
Dyslexicon - silly, active, multi-quotes
Quin - independent, paranoid, contrarian